The Ten Most Competitive American Presidential Elections. [An update on this paper is available: Reinterpreting the 2016 Election and Presidential Election Competition]

Abstract

What are the most competitive of the presidential elections in the history of the United States? A review of closely contested elections suggests important dimensions of competition and also some limits on our ability to compare the competitiveness of these quadrennial events. This paper focuses on the concept of changing electoral college winner outcomes as a key, measurable feature of presidential competition in the popular vote era. Using the Presidential Competitiveness Index (PCI), a list of the ten most competitive elections is created and each election is briefly discussed. Finally, competition among the top two and other candidates is tracked over time. On balance, American presidential elections are fairly competitive, due to the presence of routine two-party competition, including in any era a few closely contested elections. Periodically, competition erupts beyond the boundaries of the two-party system, providing the most dramatic and competitive historical examples. An appendix presents PCI scores for the 1824-2012 elections, along with the contributions of each candidate to competitiveness.