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Estructura espacial de los flujos de Inversión Exterior Directa en España. Primeros pasos para la elaboración de una cartografía financiera [The Spatial Structure of Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Spain. First Steps in the Elaboration of a Financial Cartography]. Juan Carlos Fernández Cela
Abstract
RESUMEN Los flujos financieros internacionales no circulan de forma aleatoria entre los distintos países, sino que lo hacen a través de una compleja cartografía de relaciones espaciales, donde los centros financieros tienen un papel relevante. Esta movilidad genera un impacto importante en los territorios por donde atraviesa, que desborda el plano económico y condiciona las relaciones políticas entre los distintos Estados que intervienen. Este artículo pretende identificar algunos rasgos de la estructura espacial de los flujos financieros internacio-nales que llegan a España en forma de Inversión Exterior Directa (IED). ABSTRACT International financial flows do not circulate randomly between countries. Instead, they do so through a complex mapping of spatial relationships, where financial institutions play an important role. This mobility generates a significant impact on the regions where it crosses through, which goes beyond the economic sphere and determines the political relations between the various states involved. This article aims to identify some features of the spatial structure of international financial flows to Spain in the form of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). _____________ * Me gustaría agradecer el esfuerzo y dedicación que han tenido en este trabajo los evaluadores y el resto del personal que colabora en esta revista. Sin duda, sus aportaciones han contribuido a mejorarlo y ha permitido que se haya podido abordar desde una perspectiva más rigurosa y sistemática.
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El principal objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar las diferencias tributarias a través de una planificación fiscal internacional sin y con la intervención de un paraíso fiscal/centro finan-ciero internacional �offshore� (PF/CFIO) y sus respectivas estructuras de apoyo. Avanzadas técnicas de planificación fiscal internacional permitirán utilizar las estructuras �offshore� que me-jor se adapten a cada situación concreta. Es cuestionable, sin embargo, si este es el mejor me-dio para alcanzar el desarrollo económico, ya que es abundante la legislación emanada de or-ganizaciones internacionales para contrarrestar y limitar la actividad de los PF/CFIO. Ante la era espacial que se avecina, mantenemos la esperanza en que la utilización de las potencialidades existentes y de aquellas otras que se creen permitirán superar las asimetrías mundiales entre �países ricos� y �países pobres� en un clima de paz, ya que la guerra se opone a la civilización
Fil: Gomez Lende, Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Conicet - Tandil. Instituto de Geografia, Historia y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Pcia.de Bs.as.. Instituto de Geografia, Historia y Ciencias Sociales; Argentina
We employ spatial econometrics techniques to investigate to what extent countries’ economic and geographical relations affect their stock market co-movements. Among the relations that we analyze, bilateral trade proves to be best suited to capture co-variations in returns. We find a strong effect of a unit shock to three regionally dominant countries, namely the US, the UK, and Japan, on other countries through the trade linkage. The degree of stock market dependence increases and the importance of proximity decreases over time and during recessions. We also analyze several regional crises and find a large impact of Thailand on its trade neighbors during the Asian crisis.
This essay performs a rhetorical cartography of “regional accents” to draw a map of how they articulate regions into, and out of, maps of power. First, the essay isolates the accent of neoliberalism in the constitution of regions through the use of regional trade agreements. Second, the essay tracks a socialist accent for regional power in Samir Amin's call for the Global South to execute a political strategy of “delinking.” Third, the essay argues that the rhetorical movement between places in protest, expressed by the Arab Spring and the Occupy Movement, invents a horizontal regional accent. For places of protest, a horizontal regional accent invents and folds regions of protest into one another to fuel the production of new places of protest. As a political subjectivity, the protester emerges in the crease of a regional fold of protest places as these places make and unmake maps of power.
We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the paper highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.
In this paper, I critically examine how geographers and other social scientists have developed complementary research programs for economistic studies of finance by drawing on new relational concepts such as networks and embeddedness and opening up new research frontiers. In so doing, I investigate how global financial spaces have been conceptualized in mainstream finance literature and how economic concepts have been applied to studies of finance. Drawing on these discussions, I suggest that we need to undertake an alternative research of financial space that pays more attention to relational power dynamics among financial firms and the macroeconomic impacts of financial flows on regional economies.
A spatial model is used to specify and then test for the existence of contagion among emerging market economies. We consider both trade and regional channels of contagion. Our results suggest that contagion is a statistically significant factor in foreign exchange markets and, furthermore, its effects are not uniform across the countries considered. Our results also suggest that trade links are significant channels of contagion transmission; on the other hand, geographic distances do not appear to be significant channels of contagion transmission. We also report results which indicate the extent of contagion. These results relate to effects which emanate from one country to another.
In this paper, we develop a framework for the modeling, analysis, and computation of solutions to international financial networks with intermediation. We consider three tiers of decision-makers consisting of: source agents in different countries, financial intermediaries, and consumers associated with the demand markets for different products in distinct currencies and countries. We model the behavior of the decision-makers, derive the equilibrium conditions, and establish the variational inequality formulation. We then utilize the variational inequality formulation to obtain qualitative properties of the equilibrium financial flow and price pattern as well as to propose an algorithm along with convergence results. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate both the model and the computational procedure. This research extends the recent results surrounding the modeling of financial networks with intermediation to the international dimension. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2003
This paper takes a spatial modelling approach in specifying and testing for contagion among emerging market economies. Our approach enables us to estimate asymmetries such as the magnitude of contagion of one country upon others, as well as how that country in turn is affected, on average, by the events of others. The approach also enables us to test for contagion in a formal, straightforward way and to take account for distance and trade linkages among countries. The results suggest that contagion is a statistically significant factor in foreign exchange markets and, furthermore, its effects are not uniform across the countries considered. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006
Es posible pensar la crisis económica actual como el resultado de una matriz multidimensional de causas sistémicas que operan de acuerdo con un número finito de dinámicas estructurales y de variables geoeconómicas y geopolíticas cuyas lógicas definen la reproducción de la estructura social de acuerdo con las pautas de comportamiento generadas por el capitalismo histórico o tan solo debemos interpretarla como el desajuste parcial de un sistema económico que carece de historia y racionalidad sistémica y cuya lógica únicamente puede reconstruirse de acuerdo con el concepto neoclásico y neoliberal de mercado y con el modelo de elección racional del homo economicus? ¿Es la crisis que arranca de 2008-2009 una crisis antropológica y ética, una crisis del mercado y de sus modos de organización de la competencia, una crisis de los modelos de regulación y de governance inspirados por el frame neoliberal impuesto durante las últimas décadas o estamos ante una crisis del capitalismo concebido como sistema de reproducción social y de los equilibrios de su último ciclo sistémico de acumulación estadounidense así como de las relaciones de fuerza existentes entre los sujetos colectivos que se involucran en los procesos de producción y de reproducción social y en la traducción política de sus necesidades en los ámbitos nacionales, regionales y globales? ¿Es posible ofrecer una interpretación de la crisis de acuerdo con el concepto estándar de racionalidad económica que inspira los paradigmas interpretativos predominantes en las ciencias sociales y humanas contemporáneas o es preciso recurrir simultáneamente a una teoría coherente del capitalismo como sistema social e histórico y a una teoría del poder inherente al mismo que nos ofrezcan herramientas para comprender el ciclo integral de la dominación y la explotación social, política, económica y cultural que definen los contornos de un momento histórico determinado?
We investigate the impact of cultural borders on the geography of international finance during stable and crises times. We employ a unique data set that focuses on Eurozone cross-border depositing during the 1999-2011 period in a gravity-model framework. We find that cultural distance limits international financial integration over and above what can be expected from economic trade and transaction costs. While we provide evidence that cultural borders lost influence during a "Europhoria" phase after the introduction of Euro notes in 2002, our findings indicate that cultural borders resurge during the 2007/2008 financial crisis and severely limit financial integration.
Naturalization and DepoliticizationPutting Politics into Economic GeographyConclusion
References
Cross-border banking has increased dramatically in the recent years. We utilize an exclusive and confidential data set for bilateral cross-border loans and deposits in a gravity model setting to estimate the impact of banking and currency crises on cross-border deposits and loans. We show that globalization trends, trade and currency unions have been important drivers of banking globalization and document that financial crises often lead to sustained increases in cross-border deposit and loan holdings. Our results can be valuable in benchmarking whether the current global financial crises will be different.
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This paper offers additional evidence on the structure of the inter-national financial network as emerging from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) dataset collected by the IMF. Making use of blockmodeling techniques which allow us to fit a given community partition to real data, we show that the system is characterized by the presence of a particular type of meso-scale structure known as core-periphery, in which a densely connected subset of nodes (core) coexists with a sparsely connected partition (periphery), while the members of the core act as intermediaries between members of the periphery. The composition of the core -whose constituents are identified as the set of systemically-important international financial centers -is rather small and remains stable over time. In addition to very large economies playing host to well-known global financial centers, the core comprises several off-shore financial markets.
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This paper develops an analytical model of contagion in financial networks with arbitrary structure. We explore how the probability and potential impact of contagion is influenced by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, changes in network structure, and asset market liquidity. Our findings suggest that financial systems exhibit a robust-yet-fragile tendency: while the probability of contagion may be low, the effects can be extremely widespread when problems occur. And we suggest why the resilience of the system in withstanding fairly large shocks prior to 2007 should not have been taken as a reliable guide to its future robustness.
The importance of information asymmetries in the capital markets is commonly accepted as one of the main reasons for home bias in investment. We posit that effects of such asymmetries may be reduced through relationships between banks established through bank-to-bank lending and provide evidence to support this claim. To analyze dynamics of formation of such relationships during 1980-2009 time period, we construct a global banking network of 7938 banking institutions from 141 countries. We find that recessions and banking crises tend to have negative effects on the formation of new connections and that these effects are not the same for all countries or all banks. We also find that the global financial crisis of 2008-09 had a large negative impact on the formation of new relationships in the global banking network, especially by large banks that have been previously immune to effects of banking crises and recessions.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
As the recent crisis has forcefully suggested, understanding financial-market interconnectedness is of a paramount importance to explain systemic risk, stability and economic dynamics. In this paper, we address these issues along two related perspectives. First, we explore the statistical properties of the International Financial Network (IFN), defined as the weighted-directed multigraph where nodes are world countries and links represent debtor-creditor relationships in equities and short/long-run debt. We investigate whether the 2008 financial crisis has resulted in a significant change in the topological properties of the IFN. Our findings suggest that the crisis caused not only a reduction in the amount of securities traded, but also induced changes in the topology of the network and in the time evolution of its statistical properties. This has happened, however, without changing the disassortative, core-periphery structure of the IFN architecture. Second, we perform an econometric study to examine the ability of network-based measures to explain cross-country differences in crisis intensity. We investigate whether the conclusion of previous studies showing that international connectedness is not a relevant predictor of crisis intensity may be reversed, once one explicitly accounts for the position of each country within the IFN. We show that higher interconnectedness reduces the severity of the crisis, as it allows adverse shocks to dissipate quicker. However, the systemic risk hypothesis cannot be completely dismissed and being central in the network, if the node is not a member of a rich club, puts the country in an adverse and risky position in times of crises. Finally, we find strong evidence of nonlinear effects, once the high degree of heterogeneity that characterizes the IFN is taken into account.
The current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization. We identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development. The retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon: first, across time, being especially dramatic in the wake of the Lehman Brothers’ failure; secondly, across types of flows, with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception; and thirdly, across regions, with emerging economies experiencing a shorter-lived retrenchment than developed economies. Our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration, its specific nature – with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit – as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows.
— Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Cédric Tille
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