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The roots and problems of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East region: the issues of disaster management
Abstract and Figures
The security environment in the Middle East region is characterised as a permanently
evolving system that has been influenced by the threat perception and the security
dilemma of crucial regional actors. This region is currently the most militarised area in
the world with weapons of mass destruction. There are issues for the security environment
and for the disaster management too.
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This report provides an account of the process followed in the selection of an appropriate NFDRS
for South Africa and provides an overview of the main components of such a NFDRS. It briefly
describes the systems used nationally and internationally, as well as a brief account of the nature
of South African conditions and users, and currently available weather data. The criteria for the
selection of a suitable system for South Africa are described and then applied to select the most
appropriate system. The division of the country into areas of homogenous fire danger is
addressed, and the use and administration of the system is discussed.
Current and planned wildfire detection systems are impressive but lack both sensitivity and rapid response times. A small telescope with modern detectors and significant computing capacity in geosynchronous orbit can detect small (12 m 2) fires on the surface of the earth, cover most of the western United States (under conditions of moderately clear skies) every few minutes or so, and attain very good signal-to-noise ratio against Poisson fluctuations in a second. Hence, these favorable statistical significances have initiated a study of how such a satellite could operate and reject the large number of expected systematic false alarms from a number of sources. Here we present both studies of the backgrounds in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 15 data and studies that probe the sensitivity of a fire detection satellite in geosynchronous orbit. We suggest a number of algorithms that can help reduce false alarms, and show efficacy on a few. Early detection and response would be of true value in the United States and other nations, as wildland fires continue to severely stress resource managers, policy makers, and the public, particularly in the western US. Here, we propose the framework for a geosynchronous OPEN ACCESS Remote Sens. 2013, 5 5 1 7 4 satellite with modern imaging detectors, software, and algorithms able to detect heat from early and small fires, and yield minute-scale detection times.
This is a book review of the 2nd edition of Wisner et al. At Risk: natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters (Routledge 2004)
Nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons have been elevated as a major issue of international concern in the post-Cold War era. As early as 9 February 1989, President George Bush claimed that the spread and ‘even use of sophisticated weaponry threatens global security as never before. Chemical weapons must be banned from the face of the earth, never to be used again.…And, the spread of nuclear weapons must be stopped.’1 US Intelligence and Pentagon officials amplified these concerns in their Congressional testimony; Judge William Webster, then Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), warned that ‘the odds on use [of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles] are growing as more countries develop the technologies to settle old scores’.2 These anxieties were compounded by the Gulf War (1991), the belated admission by President Boris Yeltsin of the covert biological warfare programme of the former Soviet Union (February 1992), and the subsequent revelations about the extent of the Iraqi NBC programmes.3 The Clinton administration sustained this concern. It described nonproliferation as ‘one of our nation’s highest priorities’,4 and a succession of CIA directors – Robert Gates, R. James Woolsey and Dr John Deutch – testified to ‘a steady and worrisome growth in the proliferation of advanced weapons’; to the ‘recent’ emergence of the proliferation issue with its ‘serious and far-reaching implications for global and regional security’; and to ‘the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and advanced conventional weapon systems’ as posing ‘the gravest threat to national security and to world stability’.5
This important new book explores the strategic reasons behind the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons as well as ballistic missile delivery systems in the Greater Middle East. It examines the uses and limitations of chemical weapons in regional combat, ballistic missile warfare and defenses, as well as Iran's drive for nuclear weapons and the likely regional reactions should Tehran acquire a nuclear weapons inventory. This book also discusses Chinese assistance to WMD and ballistic programs in the Greater Middle East. Finally, this book recommends policy options for American diplomacy to counter the challenges posed by WMD proliferation. This essential study prepares the ground for the challenges facing the international community. Richard Russell is a professor at the National Defense University's Near East-South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, DC. He also teaches at the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. He previously served as a political-military analyst at the CIA.
We present an automated fire detection algorithm for the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor capable of mapping actively burning fires at 30-m spatial resolution. For daytime scenes, our approach uses near infrared and short-wave infrared reflectance imagery. For nighttime scenes a simple short wave infrared radiance threshold is applied. Based on a statistical analysis of 100 ASTER scenes, we established omission and commission error rates for nine different regions. In most regions the probability of detection was between 0.8 and 0.9. Probabilities of false alarm varied between 9×10−8 (India) and 2×10−5 (USA/Canada). In most cases, the majority of false fire pixels were linked to clusters of true fire pixels, suggesting that most false fire pixels occur along ambiguous fire boundaries. We next consider fire characterization, and formulate an empirical method for estimating fire radiative power (FRP), a measure of fire intensity, using three ASTER thermal infrared channels. We performed a preliminary evaluation of our retrieval approach using four prescribed fires which were active at the time of the Terra overpass for which limited ground-truth data were collected. Retrieved FRP was accurate to within 20%, with the exception of one fire partially obscured by heavy soot.