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The Threat of a Great Earthquake in Southwestern British Columbia
... dismiss the earthquake threat, largely because large, potentially destructive earthquakes are rare in British Columbia. These people have not learned the lesson of Kobe…"4 The modified Mercalli scale is the scale used by engineers to quantify degree of shaking during an earthquake. (See Appendix A for scale)There is a 10% chance over the next 50 years of an earthquake of Modified Mercalli Intensity of VIII affecting Vancouver. ...
1 “Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the
Large, historically unprecedented earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone in western North America have left signs of sudden land level change, tsunamis, and strong shaking in coastal sediments. The coastal geological evidence suggests that many of the earthquakes occurred at the boundary between the overriding North American plate and the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. This hypothesis is consistent with geodetic measurements and the results of geophysical modeling, which indicate that part of the plate boundary is locked and accumulating elastic strain that will be released during a future large earthquake. Arguments based on potential amounts of seismic slip and likely rupture areas suggest that most or all of the plate boundary earthquakes were magnitude 8 or larger events. The last earthquake or series of earthquakes, about 300 years ago, ruptured the entire 1000-km length of the subduction zone; if it was a single quake, it probably exceeded magnitude 9. Other earthquakes may have ruptured one or more segments of the subduction zone or may have occurred on faults in the North American plate. Recurrence intervals are uncertain because of difficulties in identifying and dating earthquakes. In southwestern Washington state, intervals for the seven most recent earthquakes average about 500 years but range from less than 200 years to 700–1300 years. Future research on Cascadian plate boundary earthquakes will probably focus on (1) the relation between plate boundary and crustal earthquakes, (2) earthquake magnitude, (3) the areal extent and severity of seismic ground motions, (4) ages and number of past plate boundary earthquakes, and (5) land level changes preceding earthquakes.
The first Lithoprobe transect in 1984 across Vancouver Island had primary objectives to define the structure associated with subduction and constraints on the potential for great thrust earthquakes. The Lithoprobe results and the comprehensive multidisciplinary data collection and analyses that followed provide compelling evidence for past great earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone from Vancouver Island to northernmost California, and for present elastic strain build up toward future great events. There is evidence of sudden coastal subsidence up to 2 m and of deep-sea turbdite deposits indicating strong shaking from huge earthquakes at irregular intervals averaging about 500 years, the last in 1700. Precision geodetic measurements define the present buckling of the coastal region, diagnostic of elastic strain accumulation on a locked thrust fault. The landward extent of rupture and, therefore, shaking at coastal cities is constrained by (i) the pattern of elastic strain buildup, (ii) the estimated temperatures on the fault, (iii) the updip limit of episodic tremor and slip (ETS), (iv) the downdip change in reflection character of the thrust, and (v) the magnitude of coastal subsidence in the most recent, 1700, and previous great events. The major earthquakes are very large, M9, rupturing most of the Cascadia margin, but mainly offshore, limiting somewhat the shaking at inland cities but producing large tsunamis. The ETS that occurs at intervals of just over a year appears to involve slow slip on the subduction thrust downdip of the rupture zone that increases stress on the locked zone and may indicate time varying potential for great events.
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