The Model for Nature Policy (MNP) is being developed for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
(PBL) with the aim of evaluating Dutch nature policy at levels ranging from regional to national. The model
uses the vegetation as a basis for its predictions, which it produces in the form of a ‘nature target types map’.
Recently, however, area managers and the government have introduced the Nature and Landscape
Management Subsidy System (Subsidiestelsel Natuur en Landschap or SNL) which uses management types
and the corresponding vegetation map to define vegetation types. This study represents the first step in the
process to make the model suitable for calculations based on the SNL vegetation map, in order to ensure the
compatibility of MNP and SNL. The species included in the MNP have been linked to management types, and
new carrying capacities have been attached to particular combinations of species and management type. All
species included in the MNP were then tested by comparing the predicted distribution with the observed actual
distribution data, provided by the private data managing agencies (particuliere gegevensbeherende organisaties
or PGOs). Each species was assessed as being of good, moderate or poor suitability for inclusion in the
model. Twenty-four of the 256 species were rated as poor, and these need to be investigated further. The
comparison was only made on the basis of carrying capacity; water tables and critical deposition rates were
not yet included in the test. Nevertheless, the first results present a relatively comprehensive picture. The level
of detail of the management types map will have to be improved to allow reliable predictions to be made.
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