No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
The Theory of Interest: As Determined by Impatience to Spend Income and Opportunity to Invest It
... Policymakers, financial experts, and anybody looking to make wise financial decisions need to understand the dynamics of interest rates. The current rate of inflation is one of the key variables affecting interest rates (Fisher, 1930). Due to the fact that inflation reduces the buying power of money, lenders have to charge higher interest rates to make up for the value loss they anticipate throughout the loan term. ...
... Exchange rates are impacted by investment flows and interest rates provided by other nations. A nation's currency may appreciate as a result of higher interest rates drawing in foreign investment and boosting demand for it (Fisher, 1930). ...
The liquidity of a firm is crucial to determining its ability to settle short-term obligations, fulfil its immediate financial demands, and prevent unwelcome surprises. The objective of this research is to examine the impact of internal, external, and combined variables on Dutch Lady Milk Industries Berhad's liquidity risk. Examining the yearly reports from 2018 to 2022 completes the analysis. The data in this study were analysed using a multiple linear regression
model. The results indicate that the most important factor influencing the company's liquidity is its Operating Margin. Enhanced organisational practices, greater efficiency in resource usage, higher prices, as well as greater effectiveness in marketing can all raise the operating margin.
... Fisher hipotezi, genel fiyat düzeyindeki bir artışın faiz oranlarında bir yükselmeye neden olduğunu ifade etmektedir. Nominal faiz oranının, beklenen enflasyon oranı ile reel faiz oranının toplamına eşit olduğunu varsayan Fisher eşitliğine göre, beklenen enflasyon oranı ile faiz oranı arasında pozitif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır (Fisher, 1930). Keynes-Wicksell hipotezi, faiz oranından fiyata doğru tek yönlü bir ilişkinin olduğunu belirtmektedir. ...
... Bu çalışmadan sonra Gibson paradoksunu araştıran birçok çalışma gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu çalışmalarda, faiz oranı ile enflasyon arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünün faiz oranından enflasyona doğru mu yoksa enflasyondan faiz oranına doğru mu olduğu hakkında tam bir fikir birliği sağlanamamıştır. Fisher (1930), Birleşik Krallık için 1820-1924 ve ABD için 1890-1927 dönemleri arasında Gibson paradoksunun geçerliliğini regresyon analizi ile incelediği çalışmasında, nominal faiz oranı ile reel faiz oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklamak amacıyla beklenen enflasyona odaklanmış, enflasyondan faiz oranına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını tespit etmiştir. Sargent (1973), Gibson paradoksunu açıklamak amacıyla genel fiyat düzeyi ile faiz oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemiş ve iki önemli sonuca ulaşmıştır. ...
... Gl.Pearce in Ulph (1999) v Lopez (2008,Kula (1981),Scott (1989),Fisher (1930),Eckstein (1957),Evans in Sezer (2004),Stern (2007, 229; 628). Argument je imenovan tudi »čista nepotrpežljivost« ali »nepotrpežljivost zaradi tveganja smrti«.(Pearce ...
The choice between alternative long-term global measures is generally based on the calculation of the neto present value, which includes also social discount rate. The purpose of this research is to critically evaluate determining of parameters for calculating the social discount rate according to the Ramsey formula and to explore the possibility of introducing an objective way that takes into account aspects of sustainability. Theoretical methods are used to define the problem of subjectivity, absence of criticism in determining the social discount rate, and the problem of data reduction in empirical research. A more objective and complex way of choosing between projects based on hierarchical ecological models is presented, taking into account the potential state of sustainability of the future generations.
... The use of discounting caught on slowly after perpetuation by big names in the colliery valuation industry. 5 Fisher (1930). 6 Random variables won't be introduced until Section 4. ...
... These assets are comprised of produced, human, and natural capital. Defining income becomes slightly more problematic, for example Weitzman (2017) highlights the differing definitions of Fisher (1930) (the net return on capital wealth over a period), Lindahl (1933) (the sum of consumption plus the increase in wealth over a period), and Hicks (1946) ('the maximum amount which can be spent during a period if 35 This draws on an older literature on the link between wealth and income (Hicks, 1946;Samuelson, 1961). 36 Arrow et al. (2004), where Dasgupta is second author, define wealth as 'genuine wealth is the accounting value of all capital assets, including population.' 37 In later work Weitzman (2016) expanded on this definition of wealth as an 'all-encompassing' measure of capital and 'Generally speaking, every possible type of capital ought to be included -to the extent that we know how to measure and evaluate at efficiency prices the associated flow of net investments'. ...
There has been widespread debate about whether the way in which we measure economic activity is fit for purpose in the twenty-first century. One aspect of this debate is to move away from measuring a nation's income (GDP) towards monitoring a nation's assets (their inclusive wealth), as a better indicator of sustainable economic development. We provide the first critical comparison of the approaches of leading international organisations-the World Bank and the United Nations Environment Programme-to estimating changes in wealth. Our paper reveals important inconsistencies in how these organisations measure sustainability and the conflicting messages that policy makers receive, despite a common underlying conceptual framework linking changes in a nation's wealth to future well-being. At the most extreme, countries that perform the worst according to the UN are shown to perform well according to the World Bank. This confusion in signals makes better policy making more difficult. JEL Codes: Q01, Q32, Q56, N50, N10, O13, O44 * We would like to dedicate this article to the memory of Kirk Hamilton (1951-2024), a gentleman, scholar, and a pioneer in the field of wealth accounting. We would also like to thank Matthew Agarwala and Robert Marks for comments and suggestions on a previous draft.
... The relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation has attracted the attention of both academics and policy makers ever since the emergence of Fisher Effect (FE) or Fisher Hypothesis (FH) [18]. This hypothesis implies that a fully anticipated once-and-for-all change in expected inflation does not affect the real interest rate [19], [20], [21], [22], [23]. ...
In this study, linear and non-linear models are employed to model the Central Bank Rate (CBR), Deposit Interest Rate (DIR), Lending Rate (LER), and Treasury Bill Rate (TBR). The choice of variables is guided by the Fisher Equation (FE). The linear models range from Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Bayesian VAR (BVAR) to Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The non-linear models include Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The results show that VECM outperforms other models in the testing sub-sample, while ANFIS produces the highest forecast accuracy in the training sub-sample. Ensembling the VECM and ANFIS produces the best forecast accuracy for both the sub-samples. The results of this study can serve as a reference for modeling interest rates and provide the benchmark for investment decisions and macroeconomic policy designs.
... Moreover, it is seen that some theories are developed on the foundation that the investment decisions are based on financial benefits for example theories developed by "Irving Fisher" and "John M. Keynes" are based upon the NPV (net present value). Which mean investors does not decide to select any project for investments until its "NPV becomes equal to zero or in other words its present value of future cash flows exceed the cost of capital" (Fisher, 1930;Keynes, 1936). Beside this, keeping in mind the significance of behavioral factors, one cannot ignore the influence of behavioral finance on the investment decision making. ...
This study investigates the influence of self-control and over-confidence on investment decision-making, with a focus on the mediating role of fundamental and technical analysis. The respondents of the study are institutional investors operating in the Pakistan Stock Exchange Market (PSX), which includes the Lahore Stock Exchange, Karachi Stock Exchange, and Islamabad Stock Exchange. The behavior of these investors is assessed to determine the impact of stock market fluctuations on their investing decisions. The unit of analysis in this research is the institutional investors themselves. The study aims to examine the behavioral consequences of integrating self-control and overconfidence variables in investment decisions, particularly in relation to market instability and variations in fundamental and technical analysis. To select the sample, both stratified sampling and cluster sampling techniques were employed. Cluster sampling was used to save costs, while stratified sampling ensured that the sample accurately reflects the population. The states were divided into clusters to facilitate the use of cluster sampling. In terms of sample size, the study solely focuses on institutional investors in the Pakistan stock exchange PSX. Therefore, the sample consists of 375 institutional investors. Data collection for this study utilized a 5-point Likert scale, which is a commonly used measurement instrument for determining the relationship between variables. The scale allows respondents to provide their opinions on a continuum from strongly disagree to strongly agree. This approach enhances the originality and reliability of the data while minimizing respondent annoyance. Overall, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of how self-control and over-confidence influence investment decisions, with fundamental and technical analysis serving as mediators in the context of the Pakistan Stock Exchange Market. The findings from this research can provide valuable insights for institutional investors in their decision-making processes. Integrating self-control and over-confidence in investment decision-making aligns with SDG Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth, by promoting responsible and sustainable investment practices.
... The life-cycle modeling approach has a long tradition in economics and can trace back its roots to Fisher's finite horizon model Fisher (1930). Compared with canonical models in macroeconomics featuring infinitely-lived agents, this class of models offers a more realistic way to study education, retirement, financial investment, and home ownership. ...
We propose a life-cycle model, where individuals facing uninsured labor income risks choose whether to participate in the stock market and make decisions on home ownership, in an environment with a social safety net and the retirement savings system. The model is motivated by the empirical finding that active stock market participation is associated with higher education and employment experience in the finance sector. The model exhibits a good fit
on portfolio choice, home ownership, and consumption patterns in the cross-section and through the life cycle. The lack of stock market access, approximated by a fixed entry cost and variable costs, plays a crucial role in generating heterogeneous outcomes in agents’ wealth accumulation, increasing wealth inequality.
... Many strategies based on statistical methods have attempted to predict interest rates since the 1930s (Fisher, 1930). Especially in emerging countries, which experience high-interest rates and volatile inflation, robust strategies for forecasting trends in these indicators must be used. ...
Artificial intelligence has shortened edges in many areas, especially the economy, to support long-term and accurate forecasting of financial indicators. Traditional statistical methods perform poorly compared to those based on artificial intelligence, which can achieve higher rates even with high-dimensional datasets. This method still needs evolution and studies. In emerging countries, decision-makers and investors must follow the basic interest rate, such as in Brazil, with a Special System of Settlement and Custody (Selic). Prior works used deep neural networks (DNNs) for forecasting time series economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation, and the stock market. However, there is no empirical evaluation of the prediction models for the Selic interest rate, especially the impact of training time and the optimization of hyperparameters. In this paper, we shed light on these issues and evaluate, through a fair comparison, the use of DNNs models for Selic time series forecasting. Our results demonstrate the potential of DNNs with an error rate above 0.00219 and training time above 84.28 s. Our findings open up opportunities for further investigations toward real-time interest rate forecasting, facilitating more reliable and timely forecasting of interest rates for decision-makers and investors.
... Interest rate is the amount charged on borrowed money, expressed as a percentage of the principal, by a lender to a borrower for the use of money (Belongia and Ireland, 2014;Mashkin, 2013;Gorder, 2009;Trainer, 1987;Fisher, 1930). ...
The main objective of this study was to explore the short term consumer credit high interest rate conundrum and the infectiveness of policy regulatory interventions. The study develops an alternative model which addresses the major interest rate cost drivers subject to stakeholder engagement through suitability, acceptability and feasibility assessment. This was because previous studies have arguably unsuccessfully attempted to solve the matter through policy regulation albeit without satisfactory stakeholder engagement hence the shortcomings. Detailed Action Research Model was used. Multivariate data from 8000 short term consumer credit stakeholders was analysed using Google Forms analytics, Advanced Microsoft Excel Statistics Analysis Package (AMESAP) and N vivo. The measure of strength of evidence against the null hypothesis amongst individual consumers was about 87.5% on the suitability centric hypothesis and 100% on both acceptability and feasibility centric hypothesis. The semantic and thematic analysis on merchants and employers as key stakeholders indicated about 80% suitability and acceptability, and about 90% for feasibility. These findings suggest that the alternative model informed by key stakeholder engagement would be more appropriate to address the adverse effects of high cost short term consumer credit than regulation.
... The impact of the rate on stock prices has been scientifically confirmed in some previous studies. For example, in Fisher, inflation increases the nominal rate as a result (Fisher, 1930). The inflationary impact has a detrimental effect on both the currency rate and stock prices. ...
During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial for stock traders inside a specific nation to conscientiously examine and assess the current monetary conditions and macroeconomic data. This study examined the influence of macroeconomic factors, namely unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates, on the Indonesian stock market index within the framework of the COVID-19 pandemic. This research employs quantitative approaches, notably autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis, to evaluate the dynamics of time series data. The current analysis shows that a variety of factors, such as inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates, have an impact on the stock price index. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that the deviation from the long-term equilibrium in the short term is rectified at a monthly rate of 33.47%. As a result of completing an exhaustive analysis of this study, it is of the utmost importance for the Indonesian government to concentrate its attention on the issues of unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and currency rates during the COVID-19 epidemic. This is done with the intention of achieving stability on the stock exchange. In addition, it is strongly suggested that investors do a comprehensive analysis of the volatility of stock prices by incorporating a variety of macroeconomic elements.
... Since many years ago, there has been discussion over how interest rates in different terms interact with each other. According to arguments of neoclassical economics, the term structure of interest rates shows that long-term interest rates are calculated by averaging the current and anticipated values of short-term interest rates [2]. This theory seems to suggest a one-way causality. ...
This paper introduces the characteristic of the new benchmark rate Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), explain its connection to the futures price, and show its potential to provide new insight into the argument on interest rate term structure. Based on the future price discovery theory, this study set up a hypothesis that short-term interest rates should contribute to forecasting long-term ones. The causality between interest rates in different terms of, which are separately represented by bilateral repurchase rate and the market yield of long-term U.S. government bonds, is explored in this research using the VAR model, as well as the Granger causality test. The conclusion of this research proves the hypothesis and indicates a single-direction causality between interest rate of different terms. However, the research also has drawbacks such as ignoring non-linear relations and evading the change of government policy. These problems need to be solved in the following study.
... Mientras que Fisher (1930) argumentaba, sobre la "Teoría Neoclásica", la importancia de las condiciones marginales derivadas de la oferta y demanda. Esto derivó en dos estilos de pensamiento casi opuestos. ...
En la actualidad, las tendencias y mejores prácticas internacionales en materia de cambios regulatorios fiscales y su incorporación a la legislación local están amenazando el rumbo estratégico de las empresas sino se cuenta con un robusto marco de identificación, análisis, control y gestión de riesgos fiscales que ayuden a la alta dirección en: (1) la toma de decisiones informadas y razonadas y (2) en mitigar y minimizar estos riesgos en la consecución del cumplimiento del plan estratégico de las empresas y su desempeño financiero. Por ello, la investigación que proponemos es determinar los riesgos que originan los cambios fiscales en nuestro país. En este sentido, se utilizan las series mensuales del rendimiento del índice de Precios y Cotizaciones de México y el Rendimiento del S&P 500, de manera mensual del 2004 a marzo de 2020. Además, analizamos a través de Google Trends el sentimiento que se experimenta en las noticias y sitios de internet de la palabra “Reforma fiscal en México” y posteriormente se usa el modelo de CAPM y el modelo de contagio financiero para determinar el impacto de este factor adicional en el mercado de valores. Los resultados muestran que efectivamente las reformas fiscales afectan el mercado de valores durante 2004 a la fecha y es muy fuerte y significativo el impacto, esto nos muestra que la incertidumbre de los empresarios e inversionista aumenta más en épocas de reformas fiscales que sin ellas.
... Since its inception by Fisher (1930), the Fisher hypothesis has been the subject of several attempts to objectively validate it. However, these empirical studies have shown contradictory findings. ...
This study examined the validity of the Fisher effect and the Mundell-Tobin effect in South Asian countries using simple linear regression models with both individual countries and Panel data over a sample period (1990-2022) characterized by significant economic changes, crises, and political upheavals. Due to limitations in the available data, only four South Asian nations were considered. Inflation and real interest rates were both panel stationary, rendering cointegration testing useless. Results of simple linear regression models involving real interest rates and inflation rates for each country indicated that inflation had a negative and statistically significant impact on real interest rates across the board. Results from panel data models were also similar to those from simple linear regression models. Therefore, the results of our study challenge the Fisher effect, which posits that there is a proportional relationship between changes in nominal interest rates and expected inflation. Instead, our findings provide evidence for the existence of a Mundell-Tobin effect in South Asian countries in the short term. Mundell-Tobin effect suggests that nominal interest rates only partially adjust to changes in expected inflation, and the real interest rates are not constant. Our findings indicate that inflation shocks have a significant impact on real interest rates, hence influencing the actions of economic actors regarding savings and investment in South Asia. However, the Mundell-Tobin effect is also regarded as sporadic.
... This theory has been developed and refined over time through contributions from various scholars in the field of finance and economics. Some early works that have been associated with its development took place in the 1930s [1,2] and later on the 1970s/1980s [3][4][5][6]. ...
The unbiased expectation theory stipulates that long-term interest rates are determined by the market’s expectations of future short-term interest rates. According to this hypothesis, if investors have unbiased expectations about future interest rate movements, the forward interest rates should be good predictors of future spot interest rates. This hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates has long been a subject of debate due to empirical and theoretical challenges. Despite extensive research, a satisfactory explanation for the observed systematic difference between future spot interest rates and forward interest rates has not yet been identified. In this study, we approach this issue from an arbitrage theory perspective, leveraging on the connection between the expectation hypothesis and changes in probability measures. We propose that the observed bias can be explained by two adjustments: a risk premia adjustment, previously considered in the literature, and a stochastic adjustment that has been overlooked until now resulting from two measure changes. We further demonstrate that for specific instances of the Vasicek and Cox, as well as the Ingersoll and Ross, stochastic interest rate models, quantifying these adjustments reveals that the stochastic adjustment plays a significant role in explaining the bias, and ignoring it may lead to an overestimation of the required risk premia/aversion adjustment. Our findings extend beyond the realm of financial economic theory to have tangible implications for interest rate modelling. The capacity to quantify and distinguish between risk and stochastic adjustments empowers modellers to make more informed decisions, leading to a more accurate understanding of interest rate dynamics over time.
... Bunlar reel faiz ve nominal faizdir. Fisher'ın ortaya attığı teori üzerinden kendine yer bulan bu iki kavram nominal faiz ile reel faizin arasındaki farkın enflasyon olması varsayımı üzerine kuruludur (Fisher, 1930b). Faiz oranları tüketimi ve risk almayı ertelemek için belirli bir tarihte ödenen paranın yüzdelik primi olarak ifade edilmektedir (Fisher, 1930a). ...
... This power can be measured based on economic, physical, and management aspects. 2. Interests refer to the ultimate goals actors [36] wish to achieve in developing border coastal ecotourism. Typically, local people express economic profit and environmental sustainability as key interests, whereas companies may prioritize economic gain alone. ...
The implementation of governance regulations in developing coastal-border ecotourism in Indonesia still faces challenges, such as differing views on managing ecotourism areas and the government's ability to supervise and control extensive and hard-to-reach border areas. To improve the implementation of governance regulations in developing coastal-border ecotourism in Indonesia, a synergy between governmental institutions and local community groups should be established, and the human resources capacity should be enhanced. Infrastructure should also be built, and environmental surveillance and control should be improved. The post-positivism research method is utilized to identify the implementation process and policies in governance regulations in developing coastal-border ecotourism in Indonesia. The findings indicate that implementing governance regulations in developing coastal-border ecotourism in Indonesia has challenges and obstacles. Still, it also has supporting factors such as support from various parties, clear regulations, and efforts to increase community participation in ecotourism management. Governance regulations in developing coastal-border ecotourism in Indonesia must consider the interests of the environment and local communities. The government must ensure that ecotourism development in coastal areas is conducted with local wisdom and sustainable development.
... Inflation generally refers to the continuous increase in the general price level of goods and services, or the price level increase over a specific period of time [17]. However, not every product experiences inflation equally or regularly. ...
This study, investigates the goal setting and goal optimization using machine learning techniques. Goal setting assesses whether a goal is achievable; if so, it helps define the main goals, sub-goals, and establish a plan. During the study, we analyzed a three-year sales dataset and predicted prices that would achieve a 20% revenue increase goal for the year following the last day of the dataset. We implemented the time series forecasting models for this study and applied the goal optimization methods. We tested six different time series models, and based on accuracy values, we benchmarked the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMAX) model with the highest success rate. Goal optimization is implemented using the Python programming language with time series and optimization libraries. While departments within companies typically spend days working on pricing issues to reach the target revenue, this study offers a rapid and smooth solution for the goal optimization. In addition to saving time for companies, it also helps save money and prevents excessive risk-taking beyond the target goal, ultimately enhancing customer satisfaction and ensuring the company’s sustainability. From a broader perspective, it contributes to supporting sustainable economic growth, thereby assisting in achieving long-term economic development.
... Interest rates were used as a financial indicator of the character of the manager and his or her management preferences regarding time scheduling and risk (Fisher 1930). As these preferences are unknown and individual, relevant differences in optimisation results for three interest rates entail a risk to misinterpret the financial results. ...
The study presented a bioeconomic modelling approach for an uneven-aged mixed forest management planning. Regression models for transition (increment), and ingrowth (regeneration) used the National Forest Inventory (NFI) of Slovakia and regional inventory data. Mortality was based on salvage logging records. Models were specific for five tree species within three forest types (FT) (oak with hornbeam and beech, beech, mixed fir-beech-spruce). Net timber prices were calculated with regard to stem quality. Tree growth depended on crown characteristics. The regression models were adjusted to three main geobiotope (GBT) sites per FT. Forest growth was simulated with the density-dependent stand-level matrix transition model. Financial optimisation of harvest was sensitive to an interest rate. Long-time optimisation stabilised in a steady state equilibrium characterised by a stable diameter distribution. Target diameters were specific for site and tree species, and were highest for fir, a dense crown, a good stem quality, and a lower interest rate. Standing timber volume varied from 150 m ³ ha–1 (oak forests, 2% interest rate) to 400 m ³ ha –1 (beech and fir-beech-spruce forests, 0.5% interest rate). Harvested volume varied from 38 to 93 m ³ ha–1 per 10 years, stand basal area (ba) varied from 19 to 36 m ² ha–1 depending on the site, timber price, and interest rate. The discussion pointed out that the relative low volume of the oak FT resulted from the light-demanding characteristics of oak. The mean of oak mosaic structures was lower compared to the high level of more storeys present in the single tree selection structures in beech and mixed fir-beech-spruce forests.
... According to Baker and Anderson (2010), profit-based measurements are the most used measure of performance. Accounting-based performance measurement came about after the introduction of net present value by Fisher (1930) and internal rate of return by Hirshleifer (1958). These two were later enhanced by the new valuation technique established by Miller 4 help in management's decision-making, accountability, and budgetary control. ...
Objectives: The main objective of this study was to examine influence of ERM on company performance, to compare the influence of ERM on company performance before and after the operationalization of the EAC- Common Market and make recommendations on how the adoption of ERM can enhance company performance. Methodology: We adopted a positivist paradigm in a quantitative analysis using non-probability sampling to select 42 out of 76 listed companies. We adopted secondary data from academic databases and annual reports and analysed the data using SPSS to generate results. Findings: ERM has no significant influence on company financial performance represented by ROA, ROE, TBQ and PER. The study also revealed that majority of the listed companies did not adopt ERM after the operationalization of the EAC- Common Market in 2010, which may have been due to the high costs associated with its implementation.
... 2.2 | Age and time preference 2.2.1 | T-hypothesis: Impatience is related with age A conventional hypothesis is that impatience declines with age (e.g., Andreoni et al., 2019;Castillo et al., 2019Castillo et al., , 2020Chao et al., 2009;Falk et al., 2015, rooted in evolutionary theory. Evolutionary models link discount rates to survival probabilities (Fisher, 1930) and reproductive fitness, typically predicting that impatience declines with age (Robson et al., 2012;Rogers, 1994). Numerous studies based on stated preferences tend to support that impatience diminishes with age (Bishai, 2004;Burro et al., 2022;Falk et al., 2015Green et al., 1994;Heimer et al., 2019;Kureishi et al., 2020Kureishi et al., , 2021. ...
We examine the links between age, risk tolerance, and impatience in a large French representative sample. We combine elicited preferences data based on an incentivized web experiment and stated preferences data based on self‐reported surveys. Our findings highlight distinct patterns: when considering stated preferences, both risk tolerance and impatience exhibit a decline with age. Higher risk tolerance is associated with higher impatience, and this relationship strengthens with age in the financial domain. In contrast, our analysis of elicited measures uncovers a different dynamic. Specifically, risk tolerance tends to increase with age, while age exhibits no significant influence on impatience. Furthermore, individuals endowed with higher risk tolerance tend to demonstrate lower levels of impatience, irrespective of their age.
... This presupposes an omniscience that are non-existent when projecting prospective payoffs to calculate its present value. In this well-ordered world, when the present value of cumulative payoffs exceeds what was invested in today's money (Fisher, 2013), the venture or policy initiative is said to add value. This notion is inspired by how bonds are evaluated, where borrowers promise to repay what they borrowed (or principal) with interest (or cost of money) (Damodaran, 2012). ...
Most decisionmakers see a volatile and uncertain world as a problem because it makes decision-making complex and ambiguous, hence risky with "undesirable outcome". In response, minimising payoffs variance to make outcome predictable becomes a focus of "strategic" actions. Counter-intuitively, ambiguous conditions could offer multiple pathways to shaping emergent opportunities. This occurs when decisionmakers acquire a deep understanding of how rival firms interact to alter extant sources of advantages, and the means to shift the firm's strategic position. Value is enhanced through technological and portfolio innovations, within the backdrop of flourishing markets, where decisionmakers can explicitly choose to repurpose their resources. This builds resiliency that confers flexibility for firms to reframe their strategic purpose, so that they can reconfigure how they choose to fulfil society's future energy needs. To achieve these ends, decisionmakers can embark on a foundational pivot to open transitional pathways that could result in a transformational pivot. As a result, decisionmakers can focus on creating tomorrow's profitable niches today, by shifting advantages to their firm and their community's benefits.
... Interest rate refers to the fee charged by a lender to a borrower for the use of money, expressed as a percentage of the loan's principal (Belongia and Ireland 2014;Mashkin 2013;Gorder 2009;Trainer 1987;Fisher 1930 ...
... Even though TNLHB has relatively poor profitability, it has a stable business foundation that is expected to generate reasonably good cash flow. Therefore, the discounted cash flow (DCF) method (Fisher, 1930) is used. DCF is a well-established method to determine the intrinsic value of the firm (Basci, 2019). ...
This study examines the financial performance of Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad (TNLHB) in the past five financial years (FY2018 to FY2022) ending on 31st March 2022. Data from the audited annual reports were used to conduct financial analysis, covering profitability performance, capital structure and solvency analysis, working capital and liquidity analysis, risk assessment, and firm's valuation. Peer comparison is used to provide benchmarking analysis. Comparatively, TNLHB has lower profitability ratios, lower solvency ratios, and lower liquidity ratios. The lower profitability was a result of weaker revenue generation and less operational efficiency in profit generation. The lower solvency ratios and liquidity ratios connote a weaker financial position. The top three risk exposures are market and competitive risks, operational risks, and financial risks. Based on a three-method approach, TNLHB is valued between RM0.78 to RM0.93. This paper contributes to the extant literature on performance analysis and firm valuation.
... According to Manturuk et al. (2012) time preference is the extent to which individuals would be willing to delay immediate gratification from consumption. In theory of time preference, from Fisher (1930), time preference, is reflected as a person's impatience for consumption and is very important for saving. It describes to what extent people desire to increase their consumption or the resistance to decrease their consumption in the present, and it can be regarded as synonymous with Katona's (1975) "willingness to save". ...
... First, the consumption of today is preferred over consumption in the future. This was first conceptualized descriptively by Fisher (1930) who stated that the discount rate is the marginal rate of substitution between consumption at the present time and in the future; and that must be equal to market interest rates. The second assumption is that the discount rate is constant over time (Fishburn & Rubinstein, 1982). ...
This paper aims to elicit individual discount rates (IDRs) from Thai citizens living in urban and rural areas, using real monetary incentives in a lab-in-the-field setting. This research investigates the differences in the discount rates in two districts with different socioeconomic characteristics. One represents a rural agricultural society governed by a district administrative organization, while the other represents an urban industrialized society governed by a city municipality. The researchers also compare the results from three different elicitation methods and across five time-horizons. This paper provides three main insights. First, the elicited discount rates for people living in a rural society are significantly lower than for those living in an urban society. Second, the discount rates also vary across time horizons, suggesting different risk considerations with respect to those time horizons. Lastly, the paper also addresses an intertemporal experimental design issue that results should be indifferent between elicitation methods and finds procedural invariants between the choice and matching tasks.
... Ever since Samuelson's foundational work introduced the discounted utility theory (Samuelson 1937), discounted utility models have played a central role in sequential decision making. Building on earlier work that recognized the influence of time on individuals' valuations of goods (e.g., see (Rae 1905;Jevons 1879;von Böhm-Bawerk 1922;Fisher 1930) and the discussion in (Loewe 2006)), Samuelson proposed a utility model in which a decision maker attempts to optimize the discounted sum of their utilities with a constant discount factor applied in every time step; this is known as geometric or exponential discounting. ...
Canonical models of Markov decision processes (MDPs) usually consider geometric discounting based on a constant discount factor. While this standard modeling approach has led to many elegant results, some recent studies indicate the necessity of modeling time-varying discounting in certain applications. This paper studies a model of infinite-horizon MDPs with time-varying discount factors. We take a game-theoretic perspective -- whereby each time step is treated as an independent decision maker with their own (fixed) discount factor -- and we study the subgame perfect equilibrium (SPE) of the resulting game as well as the related algorithmic problems. We present a constructive proof of the existence of an SPE and demonstrate the EXPTIME-hardness of computing an SPE. We also turn to the approximate notion of $\epsilon$-SPE and show that an $\epsilon$-SPE exists under milder assumptions. An algorithm is presented to compute an $\epsilon$-SPE, of which an upper bound of the time complexity, as a function of the convergence property of the time-varying discount factor, is provided.
... On the dynamics of interest and inflation rates, the prominent theory, known as the Fisher hypothesis, postulates a one-to-one adjustment of nominal interest rate to inflation expectations for stabilizing real interest rate (see Fisher, 1930). Given this important implication for equilibrium interest rates, the Fisher hypothesis has been widely tested, and the empirical literature extends in parallel with advancements in econometric methods. 2 In a seminal study, Rose (1988) questions stationarity of real interest rates for 18 OECD countries by using conventional Dickey and Fuller (1979) and Phillips and Perron (1988) unit root tests. ...
This study investigates the persistence in Turkish interest and inflation rates since the implementation of inflation-targeting monetary policy, covering the period from January 2006 to July 2022. We focus on accounting for asymmetric persistence by benefiting from recent developments in quantile unit root analysis. The findings indicate that while the conventional unit root tests support the persistence of shocks to interest rates and inflation, the quantile unit root test demonstrates an asymmetric behaviour of the persistence, implying a time-varying structure with mean reversion (persistency) of the shocks in low (high) inflation periods. Furthermore, the half-lives increase with the positive shocks, indicating a longer speed of adjustment in the high inflation regime. These findings provide new insights into the relationship between interest rates and inflation and have sound policy implications.
... Por su parte, Fisher (1930) al hablar sobre la preferencia temporal o la impaciencia de un individuo menciona que "… la brevedad de la vida tiende poderosamente a incrementar el grado de impaciencia, o la tasa de preferencia temporal, más allá de lo que sería de otra manera.". Posteriormente, señala que estas preferencias temporales se ven afectadas cuando el individuo tiene herederos. ...
Objetivo: Este trabajo estudia las trayectorias óptimas de consumo de personas en edad de jubilación que no pretenden heredar. Metodología: Se propone un modelo donde el número de años por vivir de un individuo jubilado es una variable aleatoria. Resultados: Se obtienen soluciones cerradas cuando el individuo depende de una sola fuente de recursos y cuenta o no con una cobertura por longevidad. Recomendaciones: El análisis aquí expuesto puede ayudar al diseño de mejores planes para el retiro. Limitaciones e implicaciones: Este estudio no considera fuerzas de mortalidad con muchos parámetros, los cuales capturan una mayor cantidad de causas de muerte pero que complican obtener soluciones cerradas. Originalidad: El trabajo utiliza una función de utilidad CRRA y considera diferentes fuerzas de mortalidad, estas se caracterizan por contar con un menor número de parámetros para determinar los planes óptimos de consumo. Conclusiones: las soluciones del caso II permiten mejorar los productos ofrecidos por las aseguradoras en beneficio de los asegurados, de la misma manera los gobiernos pueden buscar incidir en estos parámetros para incrementar el bienestar de los pensionados.
... Ever since Samuelson's foundational work introduced the discounted utility theory (Samuelson 1937), discounted utility models have played a central role in sequential decision making. Building on earlier work that recognized the influence of time on individuals' valuations of goods (e.g., see (Rae 1905;Jevons 1879;von Böhm-Bawerk 1922;Fisher 1930) and the discussion in (Loewe 2006)), Samuelson proposed a utility model in which a decision maker attempts to optimize the discounted sum of their utilities with a constant discount factor applied in every time step; this is known as geometric or exponential discounting. ...
Canonical models of Markov decision processes (MDPs) usually consider geometric discounting based on a constant discount factor. While this standard modeling approach has led to many elegant results, some recent studies indicate the necessity of modeling time-varying discounting in certain applications. This paper studies a model of infinite-horizon MDPs with time-varying discount factors. We take a game-theoretic perspective – whereby each time step is treated as an independent decision maker with their own (fixed) discount factor – and we study the subgame perfect equilibrium (SPE) of the resulting game as well as the related algorithmic problems. We present a constructive proof of the existence of an SPE and demonstrate the EXPTIME-hardness of computing an SPE. We also turn to the approximate notion of epsilon-SPE and show that an epsilon-SPE exists under milder assumptions. An algorithm is presented to compute an epsilon-SPE, of which an upper bound of the time complexity, as a function of the convergence property of the time-varying discount factor, is provided.
... Corporate finance theory states that the main goal of a corporation is to maximize shareholder wealth [41]. Neoclassical capital theory is based on the proposition put forward by Irving Fisher [42] that individual consumption decisions can be separated from investment decisions. Fisher's separation theorem holds true in perfect capital markets, where companies and investors can lend and borrow on the same terms without incurring transaction costs. ...
The main purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of changes in cash flow measures and metrics on firm financial performance. The study uses generalized estimating equations (GEEs) methodology to analyze longitudinal data for sample of 20288 listed Chinese non-financial firms from the period 2018:q2-2020:q1. The main advantage of GEEs method over other estimation techniques is its ability to robustly estimate the variances of regression coefficients for data samples that display high correlation between repeated measurements. The findings of study show that the decline in cash flow measures and metrics bring significant positive improvements in the financial performance of firms. The empirical evidence suggests that performance improvement levers (i.e. cash flow measures and metrics) are more pronounced in low leverage firms, suggesting that changes in cash flow measures and metrics bring more positive changes in low leverage firms' financial performance relatively to high leveraged firms. The results hold after mitigating endogeneity based on dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) and sensitivity analysis considering the robustness of main findings. The paper makes significant contribution to the literature related to cash flow management and working capital management. Since, this paper is among few to empirically study, how cash flow measures and metrics are related to firm performance from dynamic stand point especially from the context of Chinese non-financial firms.
... Thaler (2016), em seu relato histórico, argumenta que o papel do comportamento humano é importante para o processo de tomada de decisão. Esse aspecto foi abordado em estudos de autores como Fisher (1930) e Keynes (1936), para os quais o comportamento humano era importante para o impacto na economia. As pesquisas sobre comportamento evoluíram e passaram a ter relevância para os pesquisadores. ...
O objetivo deste estudo foi promover uma intervenção em um processo de carregamento de veículos em uma empresa multinacional atuante no ramo de venda de cafés torrados e moídos, esta intervenção tem como escopo aumentar a ocupação dos veículos carregados através de um aplicativo totalmente baseado nos conceitos de arquitetura de decisão e nudges. Além da intervenção, como objetivo a pesquisa pretendeu avaliar se na percepção dos principais envolvidos a proposta seria efetiva no aumento de ocupação dos baús de veículos, como resultados foi identificado que há a percepção de auxílio para melhora da performance, mas além disso, que a aplicação da ferramenta atende aos critérios do conceito de nudge, partindo do princípio que será uma influência, e não uma imposição sistêmica.
El avance de la ciencia financiera presenta desafíos significativos para la educación superior. A medida que la tecnología y las prácticas financieras evolucionan, las instituciones educativas deben adaptar sus programas para garantizar que los estudiantes adquieran habilidades relevantes y actualizadas. Esto incluye el desarrollo de currículos que integren tecnologías emergentes, análisis de datos financieros y comprensión de los mercados globales. En concordancia, este artículo examina la necesidad apremiante de adaptación y cambio en la enseñanza de las finanzas, analizando los desafíos específicos que enfrenta la educación superior en este ámbito, así como la propuesta de estrategias innovadoras para mejorar la calidad y pertinencia de la educación en finanzas. Al identificar obstáculos específicos y proponer soluciones concretas, el documento ofrece una visión integradora de la innovación curricular en las ciencias financieras.
The present research aimed to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the US stock market between December 2008 and December 2021. This period had a significant absolute return advantage for growth stocks over value stocks, in contrast to research that has historically shown an advantage for value stocks over growth stocks. For this reason, we sought to examine whether the monetary policy of the period would have benefited growth stocks through the application of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with an error correction vector (VEC model), using as variables four exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that passively follow indices, two of which are value and two growth. The total assets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet were utilized to analyze the effects of monetary policy in this period. The results demonstrated, by the generalized impulse-response functions, the greater long-term elasticity of growth ETFs to shocks in the value of Fed assets, confirming the hypothesis that monetary stimuli positively influenced the absolute returns of stock price growth and value in the demarcated period, with greater benefits for growth stocks.
In this chapter we study intertemporal consumption choices under conditions of certainty. We begin with a two-period model in which an individual chooses between current and future consumption, given the intertemporal budget constraint. The saving decision becomes consumption in the next period, then investment and future production. We explain the meaning of the optimal condition, known as the Euler equation, and consider the role of the interest rate in consumption decisions. Next, we extend the model to multiple periods, up to an infinite-time horizon. We introduce liquidity constraints to show how market imperfections affect consumption choices. Finally, the properties of discrete-time models are compared with those of continuous-time models.
In this chapter we study Ramsey’s neoclassical growth model. Consumption and investment decisions are made simultaneously. The model assumes that the utility function of a benevolent planner represents collective preferences. We then show that a decentralized economy achieves the same growth path. The model is in continuous time and solved using the Hamiltonian function, with and without technological progress. We then present the extension of the model to include endogenous technological progress and sustainable growth. Finally, we analyze the role of nonrenewable resources and the impact of pollution on welfare and sustainable consumption.
The research focuses on comprehending key stakeholders in Zambia. Its primary objective is to establish a foundational understanding that can aid in considering its suitability, feasibility, and acceptability. To achieve this, the authors utilized a detailed action research model. The data collected was presented in textual form and underwent analysis in two distinct steps. In the initial phase, thematic analysis was employed to derive concepts from the meaning units. Subsequently, in the second phase, the authors conducted a relational analysis using semantic analysis. Both types of analysis were performed using the NVivo package on a computer. The results of the analysis revealed an average suitability and acceptability rate of 80% and a feasibility rate of up to 90%. These findings imply that the acquired knowledge is well-suited to guide the development of an appropriate short-term consumer credit model, one that is feasible, acceptable, and capable of addressing the issue of high-interest rates.
A basic proposition of modern economics is the so-called price premium proposed by Irving Fisher (1907, 1922, 1930): the nominal rate of interest is composed of the real rate and a price, or inflation, premium that reflects the change in the value of money. Murray Rothbard offered a critique of Fisher’s interest theory, arguing that the price premium is largely nonexistent and proposing in its stead a terms-of-trade premium (Rothbard 2009). In the present article, we argue that Rothbard’s critique is fundamentally correct. Fisher’s price premium is an incoherent concept that does not correctly reflect monetary and financial reality. Instead we combine Rothbard’s terms-of-trade component with Mises’s (1953, 1998) understanding of inflation and interest to suggest a Mises-Rothbard premium based on the Cantillon effect as the correct understanding of the relation between money and interest. This approach allows us to explain the experience of persistently low interest rates over recent decades as a result of money creation.
Emotions are pervasive in Economics. The spillover effect of Central Bank's interest decision is a crucial topic not only to economies but also to individuals. Twitter is a useful source of data for social and economic research as data provides public available and accessible easily. The study aims to determine the emotions with longitudinal research by analyzing tweets about the interest decision of the Central Bank in Turkiye. Within the study emotions expressed by tweets about interest rate decision are analyzed using Plutchik’s Wheel of Emotions. The 2873 tweets about the interest decision cut on 29 November 2022 were examined by the Maxqda qualitative data analysis program. According to findings, the emotion of "anger" is mostly concentrated under the heading of interest rate decision. Also the analysis indicated that majority of tweets emphasized inflation and foreign exchange among macroeconomic variables and reducing interest indicates negative effects on economy especially by means of inflation. The study contains the classification of emotions regarding interest rate decision and provides evidence that economic decisions affect emotions and they are not independent from each other. Also study aims to provide comprehensive data for researchers who want to use Twitter with economics and emotions together.
The purpose of the paper is to rescue Irving Fisher’s theorizing of the yield curve (1896, 1907, 1930) from relative obscurity and to contrast it with the better known and equally pioneering theory of John Maynard Keynes (1930, 1936). The paper also adduces evidence that Fed economists and the U.S. monetary experience in the 1920s greatly influenced these authors, both of whom were concerned with the management of the long-term interest rate.
Do individuals have an economic personality? Is there a model for real-life human economic behavior? Can real-life economic behaviors be predicted? This book identifies the theory of economic personality. Economic personality leads an individual to exhibit predictable behaviors without the need to be rational in cases of uncertainty. So, this book argues that the individual is not rational; what is rational, however, is the systematic repetition of behaviors dictated by people's economic personalities.
The restructuring process of the Russian coal industry, which began in 1994, was based on the standards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) and was carried out in the shortest possible time—about a decade (see Chapter 2).
The study aims to identify the long-term and short-term connection, time-varying
correlation, and dependence structure among the Crude Oil Market and South Asian
equity markets. The study uses the daily returns of crude oil and South Asian
equity markets for the period of January 01, 2000, to June 2019. ARMA-GARCH
(1,1) is utilized to examine the spillover effect of the Crude Oil Market to the
South Asian equity market. The Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model is applied
to test the short-term connection among the considered markets. Moreover, the
dependence structure is measured by using the copula approach. The study finds
the significant transmission of volatility from the Crude Oil Market to the South
Asian equity markets. However, return spillover exists only in the case of the Bombay Stock Exchange. No evidence are found for the short-term relationship of Crude
Oil Market with South Asian equity markets. The results provide evidence of the
presence of the time-varying conditional correlation. The finding of the study also
suggests the presence of some dependence between the crude oil and the South Asian equity markets. The nature of the dependence patterns of the Crude Oil Market, KSE-100, Dhaka Stock Exchange, and Colombo Stock Exchange is identical, and in the case of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, there is lower tail dependence. This study is useful for portfolio managers, risk managers, investors, and policymakers in
portfolio structuring, diversification, and risk management.
Scarcity often encourages decisions that favor the present over the future. While prevailing theories largely attribute these decisions to myopic, impulsive decision making, five studies find support for an alternative, less prevalent perspective. We introduce the time horizon of threatened needs as an important determinant of scarcity’s effect on intertemporal choice, demonstrating that people’s decisions under scarcity reflect attempts to address threatened needs. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Study 1) and preregistered studies (N = 10,297) show that time horizon moderates intertemporal decisions under scarcity. Study 2 manipulates scarcity perceptions among people engaged to be married, leading to increased preferences for sooner outcomes when wedding dates have shorter time horizons and a significant reversal when wedding dates have longer time horizons. Study 3 demonstrates that time horizon predicts intertemporal choice only when the intertemporal choice can help address threatened needs. Study 4 holds expense salience constant and replicates the moderation by time horizon using a paradigm that manipulates both scarcity and time horizon. Study 5 introduces multiple needs that vary in time horizon and importance, finding that decisions under scarcity reflect consideration of both the importance and temporal proximity of needs. These findings align with the perspective that people facing scarcity attempt to make decisions that are contextually appropriate. This work underscores the importance of understanding contextual variation in experiences of scarcity, suggests that decision making under scarcity is less thoughtless than presumed by the impulsive, myopic account, and offers recommendations for interventions for changing behavior under scarcity.
This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in the Nigerian economy. This was aimed at ascertaining how INF representing real interest rate, GDP representing gross domestic product per capita, and BMS representing broad money supply has stimulate the stock market development in Nigeria. Historical data was collated and estimated employing the ARDL form of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique. The empirical results indicate that only inflation had a negative and significant impacts on stock market development while real output and money supply exerted positive but insignificant impacts. On the basis of the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made: The monetary authorities have to regularly review their monetary policy direction to bring inflation lower than it is; Regulatory authorities and policy makers should ensure that there is general stability in money supply and exchange rates, while trying to put the inflationary trends under control and at the same time maintain a stable interest rate regime in the economy in order to achieve improvements in stock market performance to bring about desired economic growth and national development.
In this study, it has been determined whether the Neo-Fisher effect is valid in Turkey, and an examination has been made of the exchange rate, inflation, export, and import effects within the framework of the applied interest policies. In the study, structural break time series analysis was used to examine the consumer price index, nominal interest rates, real effective exchange rate, and export-import linkages in Turkey with monthly data in the period 2003:M1-2021:M9. Lee-Strazicich unit root test was used for multiple structural break unit root test, and the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test) method with dummy variables was used for long and short term relationships between series. In the analysis findings, the existence of long-term and short-term cointegration between exports, imports, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation has been determined. Exports and imports are most affected by the exchange rate in both the long and short run. Inflation is affected by both the exchange rate and interest rates in the long and short run. The effect of the exchange rate on inflation is much greater than that of interest rates.
Twitter, toplum gündeminin yansıtıldığı önemli sosyal medya platformlarından biridir. Merkez Bankası Para Politikası Kurulu tarafından açıklanan faiz kararı ile birlikte Twitter’da yapılan paylaşımlarda kullanıcıların makroekonomik değerlendirmeleri ve duygu durumları yer almaktadır. Bu çalışma, Merkez Bankası’nın 23 Haziran 2022 tarihli faizi sabit tutma kararının ardından Twitter verilerinin taranması ve içerik analizi yapılarak incelenmesini kapsamaktadır. Çalışma, Merkez Bankası faiz kararı sonrası Twitter kullanıcılarının faiz kararına ilişkin bakış açılarını ortaya koymayı ve makroekonomik değişkenler ile duygu durumları arasındaki ilişkileri incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. 23 Haziran saat 09:00 ile 25 Haziran 2022 saat 21:00 arasında atılan 1050 tweet çalışmanın evrenini oluşturmaktadır. Faiz kararına ilişkin örneklem 443 tweete indirgenerek makine tabanlı öğrenim yöntemi ile kodlanmıştır. Çalışmada MAXQDA nitel veri analiz programı kullanılarak, faiz kararına ilişkin duygu durumları ve makroekonomik değerlendirmeler Plutchik Duygu Çarkı ile analiz edilmiştir. Faiz kararı ile ilgili tweet içerikleri incelendiğinde makroekonomik değişkenler olarak en fazla enflasyon, faiz, döviz üçlüsünün yer aldığı belirlenmiştir. Faiz kararına yönelik öne çıkan temel duyguların ise öfke, tiksinme ve korku şeklinde yoğunlaştığı tespit edilmiştir. Olumsuz temel duygulara ilaveten ikincil duygulardan rahatsızlık, sıkıntı, kaygı, kabulleniş ve sükûnet en yoğun hissedilen duygulardır. Araştırma kapsamında sunulan bulguların ekonominin gereksinim ve beklentilerine yönelik kamuoyu verisi elde etmede fayda sağlaması ve para politikası kararları alınırken ek veri seti olarak değerlendirimesi öngörülmektedir.
Анализ деловой активности в условиях пандемии
To our knowledge, this is the first English translation of Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk’s seminar paper of 1876. Böhm-Bawerk apparently thought his 1876 seminar paper had some significance. Still, he chose not to publish it during his lifetime. This is understandable given that _Capital and Interest_ was available, but it is more difficult to understand why it was not published after his death in 1914. This English translation draws from three sources in German: (1) the original handwritten seminar paper located in the Hayek Library at the University of Salzburg; (2) a transcription from the Ludwig von Mises Collection in the Grove City College Archives; and (3) a transcription published by Kiichiro Yagi in March 1983.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.