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International Gambling Studies
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The psychology of lottery gambling
Mark Griffiths a & Richard Wood b
a Nottingham Trent University
b Nottingham Trent University
Version of record first published: 01 Feb 2008.
To cite this article: Mark Griffiths & Richard Wood (2001): The psychology of lottery gambling, International Gambling Studies,
1:1, 27-45
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The psychology of lottery gambling
Mark Griffiths
Nottingham Trent University
Richard Wood
Nottingham Trent University
Abstract
This paper examines the major factors in the psychology of lottery
gambling (including instant scratchcard lotteries and video lottery
terminals) and argues that success is due to a number of simple and
inter-related factors. Part of the popularity of lotteries is that they
offer a low cost chance of winning a very large jackpot prize, i.e.
without the huge jackpot very few people would play. However, there
are other important maintenance factors including: (i) successful
advertising and television coverage; (ii) a general ignorance of
probability theory; (iii) entrapment; (iv) manufacturing credibility;
and (v) use of heuristics (e.g. illusion of control, flexible attributions,
hindsight bias, availability bias, representativeness bias). The paper
also argues that some types of lottery game (i.e. instant scratchcards
and video lottery terminals) can stimulate excessive and problematic
Play.
Introduction
Lotteries have traditionally been viewed as 'soft' forms of gambling which are
assumed to have few negative effects. However, that does not mean that this type
of gambling should be passed over uncritically without looking at lotteries from a
psychological perspective. This critical focus is particularly relevant in the UK
which has only (relatively) recently (November 1994) re-introduced a national
lottery after many years without one.
The global growth of gambling and changes within the social and cultural
climate has led to major changes in the political attitude to gambling worldwide.
Worldwide, lotteries are now well established and are probably perceived quite
positively by most people perhaps because of their link with good causes
(Griffiths 1997). It has been previously argued that a lottery's association with
good causes may soften people's attitudes towards gambling in general and may
erode the social stigma of other gambling activities, e.g. horse race betting,
casino gambling (Griffiths 1995a) although such an assertion needs to be tested
empirically. The situation appears to mirror the initiation of other socially
condoned but potentially addictive behaviours like drinking (alcohol) and
smoking (nicotine) (Griffiths 1994a; Griffiths and Sutherland 1998)
International Gambling Studies Vol I, Sept 2001 27
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With regards to the introduction of a lottery in the UK, the major concerns by
those monitoring the social impact of gambling (e.g. gambling charities,
academic researchers) have nothing to do with the lottery in
itself,
but more to do
with the 'knock on effects' of possible future legislation. The UK Government's
policy on gambling dates back to the 1968 Gaming Act. The Act stipulated that
gambling should not be stimulated. However, since 1994, the policy of
'unstimulated demand' has arguably been breached through the introduction of
the National Lottery. This has been highlighted by many commentators including
lawyers (Miers 1995), gaming consultants (Kent-Lemon 1995), the Gaming
Board (Galston 1995), psychologists (Griffiths 1994b) and the UK Home Office
(Johnston 1995).
As gambling laws become more relaxed and gambling becomes another product
that can be more readily advertised (i.e. 'stimulated'), it has been speculated that
this will lead to a natural increase in uptake of gambling involvement (Griffiths
1997).
If this premise is correct, this would lead to more people who experience
gambling problems (although this may not be directly proportional) because of
the proliferation of gaming establishments and relaxation of legislation.
Before going on to examine in detail the psychology of lottery gambling, it needs
to be pointed out that there are many different types of lottery games to gamble
on throughout the world. The most typical include:
• lotto type games: These are games where players usually have to choose a
selection of numbers out of a much bigger number pool. The most common
type of lotto game is probably '6/49' where players have to pick six numbers
from forty-nine possibilities. Draws are usually made once or twice a week.
However, lotto type games have the potential to be played at various intervals
(yearly, weekly, daily) with some keno-type lottery draws occurring as little
as every five minutes;
• instant lottery games: These are games such as scratchcard tickets where
players rub off panels to instantly reveal winning or losing symbols; and
• video lottery terminal games: These are games played on individual machines
(which are similar to slot machines or 'poker' machines) and offer a variety
of gambling games.
From this brief description of different types of lottery it can be speculated that
different games might have different consequences for players (for instance, in
terms of potential problematic play). Some forms of gambling have a strong
association with problem gambling. These are usually high intensity activities
and/or those that offer repeated opportunities to gamble and chase losses (e.g.
slot machines, casino-type games etc.). This paper will therefore examine the
psychology of lotto type games before. going on to discuss some of the
psychological implications for instant scratchcards and video lottery terminals
(VLTs), particularly concerning the issue of excessive and problematic play.
Factors in lottery participation
What makes lotteries so successful? In the UK, the National Lottery operator
(Camelot) has stated that their own 'ingredients of success' are popular products,
effective marketing, convenience of play, security of system and efficiency of
International Gambling Studies Vol 1, Sept 2001 28
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operation (Camelot 1995). However, there are other important maintenance
factors including successful advertising and television coverage; a general
ignorance of probability theory; entrapment; manufacturing credibility; and use
of heuristics (e.g. illusion of control, flexible attributions, hindsight bias,
availability bias, representativeness bias). These are examined in more detail
below after a brief examination of why people participate in lotteries.
The chances of winning a typical '6/49' lotto game are approximately one in
fourteen million. Why - given the huge odds against winning - do people persist
with their dream of winning the elusive jackpot? Part of the popularity of
lotteries in general is that it offers a low cost chance of winning a very large
jackpot prize. Without the huge jackpot, very few people would play (Shapira
and Venezia 1992). In fact, a large number of winning opportunities and a large
grand prize are generally accepted as being the optimum lottery prize format
(Shapira and Venezia 1992; Douglas 1995).
For instance, in an empirical study by Albers and Hubl (1997) of 891 lottery
players, it was predicted that variations in gambling participation were due to
structural differences in games. Only one motivational variable for gambling
participation was isolated, that being the maximum prize. This confirmed the
observations of others (e.g. Clotfelter and Cook 1989; Shapiro and Venezia
1992).
Lottery players in this study were slightly more likely to be male and to be
less educated. Blue-collar workers were no more likely to be lottery players than
white collar workers and in fact civil servants had higher participation rates.
Being unemployed only increased participation among slot machine players.
Other factors such as age and home ownership showed no differences. Albers
and Hubl also reported that unemployment and lower formal education increased
gambling participation - a finding that has been confirmed in the US (Clotfelter
and Cook 1989). Gambling was also correlated with economic development,
especially disposable income of households.
Furthermore, attitudinal research by the Henley Centre (1997) in the UK has
revealed that lottery consumers are driven by profit not charity. In essence, the
UK National Lottery has encouraged a movement from stigma to acceptability.
In fact, 58% of respondents agreed that the lottery has made gambling more
acceptable (Henley Centre 1996). According to another piece of market research,
the primary motivations for playing lotteries are to win money/big prize (55%),
the enjoyment of playing (15%) and giving to a 'good cause' (5%) (Henley
Centre 1996). Market research also suggests that the UK public is indifferent to
good cause themes although some may rationalise a lottery purchase with this
idea (Douglas 1995). It also appears to be the case that the huge success of the
National Lottery has produced a number of significant and lasting changes
among the British population. It has increased the number of regular gamblers,
increased the number of female gamblers, has softened people's attitudes
towards gambling and has turned gambling into a mass socially acceptable
activity.
Advertising and television coverage
The gambling industry has consistently used techniques based both on appeals to
expressive needs and the manipulation of situational factors to attract new.
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custom. An analysis of these marketing methods shows that they mainly fall into
two categories (see Griffiths 1993; 1995b; 1997). These are situational and
structural characteristics (the latter of which will be returned to later). Situational
characteristics are those that get people to gamble in the first place. These
characteristics are primarily features of the environment and can be considered
the situational determinants of gambling. They include the location of the
gambling outlet, the number of gambling outlets in a specified area and the use
of advertising in stimulating people to gamble (Cornish 1978). These variables
may be very important in the initial decision to gamble and may help clarify why
some forms of gambling are more attractive to particular socioeconomic classes.
There is little doubt that these characteristics have been critical in the success of
lotteries to date. Not only are they heavily advertised on billboards, television
and in the national newspapers, but the accessibility is so widespread that they
are difficult to avoid in most shops. This means that lotteries are more salient
than other forms of gambling that do not have the same freedoms to advertise or
have their own television show.
There is also another contributory factor that is perhaps worth mentioning here
and that is most studies on lottery play around the world have shown that the
working class sector of the population is over represented and that people from
the middle classes are under represented in lottery sales (Clotfelter and Cook
1989).
Since television viewing is greater in the working class sector (Walker,
1992),
the impact of television based marketing of lottery gambling may be
heightened for this group. Furthermore, a televised draw (which happens in
nearly all countries to our knowledge) highlights the simplicity of winning while
at the same time hiding the huge number of losers who are watching (Walker
1992).
It appears that most (if not all) lottery operators actively stimulate gambling
through mass television advertising and advertisements in the national press. For
instance, in the UK, advertising slogans have either been designed to make
people think they have a good chance of winning the jackpot rather than the
actual odds ('It could be you') or has been designed to play upon people's
charitable instinct giving an impression of altruism ('Everyone's a winner').
More recent slogans ('Maybe, just maybe') are more subtle but are still sold on
the premise that somebody has got to win the big jackpot, so why shouldn't it be
you. This is the major tactic - to make the person believe that the almost
impossible is within their grasp.
Probability
The probabilities of winning lottery prizes are the basic risk dimensions that may
help determine whether a person gambles on a particular activity in the first
place. These may or may not appear to be especially important to the gambler
although Stewart (1996), a UK mathematician, has gone as far to say that the
lotto-type games are a tribute to public innumeracy. Probabilities of winning
something on the National Lottery are fairly high in comparison with other
gambling activities although the chances of winning the jackpot are very small. It
is therefore likely that the ordinary 'social gambler' does not think about the
actual probability of winning but relies on heuristic strategies for handling the
available information. What most people will concentrate on is the amount that
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could be won rather than the probability of doing so. The general finding is that
the greater the jackpot the more people will gamble. For instance, more lottery
tickets are sold in the UK on 'rollover' weeks because the potential jackpot is
very large.
It could further be argued that there is - or at least appears to be - a general
ignorance of the way probability operates. All methods of selecting lottery
numbers have an equal probability yet some of the general public do not seem to
believe that the probability of the numbers
1,2,3,4,5
and 6 being picked from the
49 balls are as equally likely as any other sequence of six numbers. There are
also those people who believe that future predictions can be made on the basis of
past history. As Stewart (1996) points out, all lottery systems based on analysing
past draws (e.g. sophisticated computer programs) are totally useless. Any
patterns that are detected by the sophisticated software are spurious coincidences.
There is also the observation that people tend to overestimate positive outcomes
and underestimate negative ones. For instance, if someone is told they have a one
in fourteen million chance of being killed on any particular Saturday night they
would hardly give it a second thought because the chances of anything untoward
happening are infinitesimal. However, given the same probability of winning the
lottery, people suddenly become over-optimistic. For instance, a market research
study for the right-wing think-tank Adam Smith Institute found that 22% of
people thought they would scoop the UK National Lottery jackpot in their
lifetime (English 1996).
Entrapment
Another factor that may be important in why lotteries have been so financially
successful is entrapment. Entrapment refers to a commitment to a goal that has
not yet been reached. The basic premise is to get the person committed to the
cause or product as soon as possible. Once a commitment is made, the nature of
thought changes. To the converted (in this case the lottery ticket buyer), careful
and considered analysis of the situation is likely to be minimal. Lotteries have
one great advantage over many other forms of gambling in that many people pick
exactly the same numbers each week. In the UK, a newspaper survey reported
that 67% of people choose the same numbers each week (Crosbie 1996). Of this
figure, the survey reported that 30% chose their regular numbers after an initial
random selection and 37% chose the same numbers each week based on birthday
dates,
house numbers, favourite numbers etc. However, no details were given
about demography of the participants or the sample size.
By picking the same numbers the person may become 'entrapped' (Walker
1992).
Each week the player thinks they are coming closer to winning. The
winning day is impossible to predict but should the lottery player decide to stop
and cut their losses, they are faced with the prospect that the very next week their
numbers might come up. The player is thus entrapped and the entrapment
become greater as the weeks go by. According to Walker (1992), people can
reach a point where holidays cannot be taken unless arrangements are made for
the weekly ticket to be completed and entered. The 'entrapment' process has
sometimes been referred to in the psychological literature as the 'sunk cost bias'
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(Arkes and Blumer 1985) and is essentially another 'foot-in-the-door' technique
(Freedman and Fraser 1966).
Manufacturing credibility
Another tactic in selling products is to gain source credibility. In the UK, the
National Lottery gained this almost immediately in that it had full government
backing (as do many other lotteries). The UK Government introduced new
legislation and paved the way for advertising the National Lottery on all the
broadcast media. To add further credibility, the draws are broadcast on prime-
time television programs by the British Broadcasting Corporation ([BBC] itself
an organisation of international credibility). A UK newspaper item (Hellen 1996)
reported that the UK lottery operators had already succeeded in using its
coverage on BBC television to present itself as a respectable British institution.
According to Pratkanis (1995) source credibility can be effective for two reasons.
The first is that it leads to the processing of messages in a half-mindless state -
either because the person is not motivated to think, does not have the time to
consider, or lacks the abilities to understand the issues. Secondly, source
credibility can stop questioning ('if the government backs it, then it must be
alright').
Heuristics
Heuristics are usually defined as 'rule-of-thumb' (i.e. simple 'if-then' rules or
norms). There are many heuristics that may help explain why lotteries are so
appealing to the general public. Although the following heuristics are not an
exhaustive list, they do contain those that are probably most salient to the
psychology of lottery gambling:
Illusion of
control:
Langer (1975) defined the illusion of control is an expectancy
of success higher than the objective probability would warrant. In essence, her
basic assumption was that in some chance settings (e.g. buying a lottery ticket),
those conditions that involved factors of choice, involvement, familiarity and/or
competition stimulate the illusion of control to produce skill orientations. These
observations have been confirmed in both laboratory and natural setting based
experiments (e.g. Langer 1975; Langer and Roth 1975). For instance, Langer
(1975) reported that subjects would sell previously bought lottery tickets for a
higher price if they had picked it themselves as opposed to having it 'assigned' by
someone else.
Flexible attributions: Flexible attributions are cognitive distortions in which
gamblers attribute their successes as due to their own skill and failures as due to
some external influence. Research by Gilovich (1983) demonstrated that
gamblers transform their losses into 'near wins' and spend far more time
discussing their losses and discounting them while bolstering their wins.
Gilovich also showed that gamblers display hindsight bias (i.e. they are not
surprised by the outcome of a gamble and report they predicted it after the event
has happened).
Representativeness bias: Representativeness bias applies to random samples of
data and is where people expect to find a representative relationship between
samples drawn from the population and the population itself (Tversky and
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Kahneman 1971). For instance, when subjects are asked to create a random
sequence of imaginary coin tosses, they tend to produce sequences where the
proportion of 'tails' in a short segment is closer to 0.5 than chance would predict
(Tune 1964). This particular mechanism may well explain the 'gambler's fallacy',
i.e. the expectation that the probability of winning will increase with the length
of an ongoing run of losses (Wagenaar 1988).
Availability bias: The availability bias occurs when a person evaluating the
probability of a chance event makes the judgement in terms of the ease with
which relevant instances come to mind (Kahneman and Tversky 1973). With
regards to the lotteries, winners are often highly publicised. These both give the
idea that wins are regular and commonplace when in fact they are rare. A vividly
presented case study or example can make a lasting impression.
These heuristics and biases give some insight into why gamblers do not learn
from their past losses and help to explain supposedly 'irrational' behaviour.
However, heuristics and biases have no predictive value. It is almost impossible
to know which heuristic will be applied in a given situation and it is quite
possible for the same person to use a different heuristic in the same situation on
different occasions.
Gambling and 'addictiveness'
Since so much money is being made from lottery gambling there are always
claims by certain groups in society (e.g. church groups, anti-gambling groups,
poverty groups etc.), that lotteries may cause problematic play (i.e. be
'addictive'). One of the major concerns is the potential rise in the number of
problem gamblers relating to the increase in opportunities to gamble. Griffiths
(1999a) argues that addictions always result from an interaction and interplay
between many factors including the person's biological and/or genetic
predisposition, their psychological constitution, their social environment and the
nature of the activity
itself.
There have been very few studies examining the psychosocial impact of lottery
play. However, a study by Reid, Woodford, Roberts, Golding and Towell (1999)
found that manual workers spent more than twice as much on the lottery than
non-manual workers. The study also demonstrated a link between higher
spending on the lottery and poor social functioning, lower frequency of social
support, and higher alcohol and cigarette consumption. Higher spending was
associated with older age and manual social class, as noted in previous studies
(Office of the National Lottery 1997). There was no association found between
higher spending and annual earnings, use of drugs, general mental health, gender
or ethnicity.
As Griffiths (1999a) has noted, there is no precise frequency level of a gambling
game at which people become addicted since addiction will be an integrated mix
of factors in which frequency is just one factor in the overall equation. Other
factors (external to the person themselves) include such things as stake size, prize
structures, probability of winning, size of jackpot, rules of the game, accessibility,
structural characteristics (light, .colour and sound effects; event frequency; near
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misses; skill elements etc.), location and type of gambling establishment, and
advertising.
Each of these factors may (and almost certainly does) have implications for the
gambler's motivations and as a consequence the social impact of gambling. A lot
of these factors are structural characteristics (mentioned in a previous section)
that are responsible for reinforcement, may satisfy gamblers' needs and may
actually facilitate excessive gambling. By identifying particular structural
characteristics it may be possible to see how needs are identified, to see how
information about gambling is presented (or perhaps misrepresented) and to see
how thoughts about gambling are influenced and distorted. Showing the
existence of such relationships has great practical importance. Not only could
potentially 'dangerous' forms of gambling be identified, but effective and
selective legislation could be formulated.
Most people in the UK gambling industry make crude distinctions between 'hard'
and 'soft' forms of gambling. Their current definition of 'hard' gambling outlined
by the Home Office states:
... "hard' gambling is a colloquialism for those forms of gambling
which are considered to carry greater potential risks than others,
usually because of the high or rapid staking associated with them
(authors' emphasis) (Home Office 1996, p.3).
From this definition it can be concluded that 'soft' gambling refers to activities
such as weekly/bi-weekly lotteries and football pools and that 'hard' gambling
includes roulette, blackjack, fruit machines, horse/greyhound race betting, instant
scratchcards and VLTs (although there is much debate about the inclusion of
some of these activities as 'hard' gambling). Some sources claim that casino type
gambling comes closest to incorporating the largest number of gambling
inducing characteristics (Royal Commission 1978). Such characteristics include
high pay out ratios and rapid event frequency. In addition, heavy losses were
viewed as a likely occurrence because this type of gambling contained structural
characteristics that allow continuous gambling.
These features are also present in both scratchcard and VLTs and are expanded
on below in addition to a brief analysis of some other important psychological
factors (e.g. the near miss, suspension of judgement):
Event frequency: Scratchcards have been described as 'paper slot machines'
(Griffiths 1995c) and like slot machines, they have a short pay out interval (i.e.
there is only a few second's interval between the initial gamble and the winning
payment). Coupled with this, the rapid event frequency also means that the loss
period is brief with little time given over to financial considerations and, more
importantly, winnings can be re-gambled almost immediately. This is also the
case for VLT gambling.
Three factors are inextricably linked with these characteristics. The first of these
is the frequency of opportunities to gamble. Logistically, some gambling
activities (e.g. bi-weekly lotteries, football pools) have small event frequencies
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(i.e.
there is only one or two draws a week) making them 'soft' forms of
gambling. However, in the case of instant scratchcards and VLTs there are few
constraints on repeated gambling as limits are set only by how fast a person can
scratch off the covering of the winning or losing symbols or how fast they can
insert the next coin into the machine. The frequency of playing when linked with
the two other factors - the result of the gamble (win or loss) and the actual time
until winnings are received - exploit certain psychological principles of learning.
This process (operant conditioning) conditions habits by rewarding people when
they emit specific behaviour. Reinforcement occurs through presentation of a
reward such as money. To produce high rates of response, those schedules that
present rewards intermittently have been shown to be most effective (Skinner
1953;
Moran 1987). Since instant scratchcards operate on such schedules it is
unsurprising that high rates of response (i.e. excessive gambling) could occur.
Promoters appear to acknowledge the need to pay out winnings as quickly as
possible thus indicating that receiving winnings is seen by the gambling industry
to act as an extrinsic reward for winners to continue gambling.
It can therefore be argued that games that offer a fast, arousing span of play,
frequent wins and the opportunity for rapid replay are associated with problem
gambling. This observation has been made in relation to slot machines by
researchers all over the world (e.g. Australia, USA, UK, Canada, Spain, Holland,
Germany). There is no doubt that frequency of opportunities to gamble (i.e. event
frequency) is a major contributory factor in the development of gambling
problems (Griffiths 1997). As argued above, slot machines have an event
frequency of every few seconds whereas the football pools have an event
frequency of once a week. The general rule is that the faster the event frequency,
the more likely it is that the activity will cause gambling problems. Addictions
are essentially about rewards and the speed of rewards. Therefore, the more
potential rewards there are, the more problematic ('addictive') an activity is
likely to be.
The third and most important point to make about event frequency concerns the
definition of 'rapid replay'. In general, the lower the event frequency, the 'softer'
it is, and the less problems there tends to be - at least based on the empirical
evidence (although there are exceptions to the rule). Given the time, money and
resources, a vast majority of gambling activities are 'continuous' in that people
have the potential to gamble again and again. There are only two UK gambling
activities that could be said to be truly discontinuous (i.e. the football pools and
weekly/bi-weekly lotteries).
The 'near miss': Another related aspect to operant conditioning is the
'psychology of the near miss' which can act as an intermediate reinforcer. A
number of psychologists (see Reid 1986; Griffiths 1991) have noted that near
misses - failures that are close to being successful - appear to encourage future
play inducing continued gambling, and that some commercial gambling activities
(particularly slot machines and scratchcard lotteries) are formulated to ensure a
higher than chance frequency of near misses. The potential danger of the near
miss element of scratchcards was first documented in the 1970s when they were
termed 'heartstoppers' because they gave the illusion of coming close to a big
prize (Moran 1979).
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At a behaviouristic level, a near miss may have the same kind of conditioning
effect on behaviour as a success. For example, a slot machine's pay out line may
be horizontally located in the middle line of a 3 x 3 matrix. When three winning
symbols are displayed, the jackpot is won and thus reinforces play. However, a
near miss - such as two winning symbols and a third losing one just above or
below the payline - is still strongly reinforcing at no extra expense to the
machine's owner. Further to this, at an attributional level of analysis, the player is
not constantly losing but constantly nearly winning (Griffiths 1994c; 1999b).
It should also be noted that the near miss can also be explained in terms of
'frustration theory' or 'cognitive regret', both of which could be argued to be
theoretically opposed to an operant conditioning analysis. According to
frustration theory, failing to fulfil a goal (for example, not winning on a
scratchcard) produces frustration which energises ongoing behaviour (Amsel
1958).
Subsequent wins then reinforce high rate behaviour. Other psychologists
say the frustration produced by 'nearly winning' induces a form of cognitive
regret (Loftus and Loftus 1983). The elimination of regret can be achieved by
playing again, and this in turn encourages future play.
De Vos, Lambeck and Op het Veld (1997) have made the only attempt to
examine problem gambling (including lotteries) across eight different European
countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain,
Switzerland, United Kingdom). The aim of their research was to gain an insight
into the extent of problem gambling across Europe by sending out questionnaires
to addiction centres, universities and hospitals in addition to researchers known
to work in the area of problem gambling. They sent out 920 questionnaires and
received replies from 388 organisations/individuals (42.2% response rate). Of
these replies, only 118 came from problem gambling treatment centres with the
vast majority of these coming from just four countries (Belgium, Germany, The
Netherlands and Spain). Despite the relative lack of information, it was evident
that the major form of problematic gambling was slot machines (see Table 1).
Lotteries produced little in the way of problems except for a small proportion of
people who had problems with instant (scratchcard) lotteries. The small number
of instant lottery gamblers who turned up for treatment in Belgium, Germany,
Holland and Spain were middle-aged males (except for Belgium where it was
young males). However, it must be noted that all these results were based on a
very small number of people who sought treatment. More recently, evidence is
beginning to emerge that scratchcards are potentially addictive particularly
amongst adolescents (e.g. Fisher 1999; Griffiths, 2000; Wood and Griffiths 1998;
2001).
Table 1 : Number of gamblers in treatment by gambling type across
four countries in 1994
Belgium Germany Netherlands
Spain
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Slot machines
No.
in treatment
576
Males (%)
89
Mean age
36
No.
of treatment centres
15
Total slot machine players in
Casino games
No.
in treatment
15
Males (%)
90
Mean age
40
No.
of treatment centres
6
Total casino game players in
Horse racing
No.
in treatment
2
Males (%)
100
Mean age
39
No.
of treatment centres
l
Total horse race gamblers in
Instant lotteries
No.
in treatment
30
Males (%)
87
Mean age
43
No.
of treatment centres
8
171
100
27
10
1210
96
29
39
treatment = 2897 (83%)
31
92
38
3
treatment = 223
21
100
30
3
94
87
40
28
(6.4%)
14
98
35
7
treatment = 47 (1.3%)
12
67
23
3
Total instant lottery players in treatment = 58
Bingo
No.
in treatment
256
Males (%)
56
Mean age
41
No.
of treatment centres
12
-
-
-
Total number of bingo players in treatment =
12
83
48
5
(1.7%)
1
100
34
1
259 (7.4%)
940
96
29
6
83
98
33
2
10
98
25
1
4
98
30
2
2
100
25
1
International Gambling Studies Vol 1, Sept 2001 37
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Total number of gamblers in treatment = 3484
(Adapted from De Vos, Lambeck and Op et Veld 1997)
Video lottery terminals (VLTs)
Before concluding this section, it needs to be said that there has been little
research into the effects of VLTs. In comparison to the research into slot/gaming
machines worldwide, there has been comparatively little research into VLTs.
Gfellner (1994) surveyed 507 VLT players from Brandon (Manitoba, Canada)
and reported that 9.3% (n = 47) of them were problem gamblers. Of these, the
majority were male (64%) and between 18 and 45 years of age (90%). Wynne
also reported data concerning 53 problem VLT players and reported that they
were slightly more likely to be male (55%) and aged between 18 and 44 years
(84%).
Research in South Dakota, USA (Morgan, Kofoed, Buchkoski and Carr
1996) and Canada (Alberta Alcohol and Drug Abuse Commission [AADAC])
have shown that VLTs are addictive. In their study only seven of the 58
pathological gamblers in treatment were not involved with VLTs.
More recently, the AADAC (1997) carried out an in-depth study of 84 problem
VLT users. The report's main findings were that their mean average age was 38
years,
that 64% were male, 38% were single and 32% married, 48% were
employed (full-time), and 31% were unemployed. Their mean average playing
time had been 30 months and 24% were more than $15,000 in debt. It was also
reported that 97% of them were 'pathological' gamblers as measured by the
South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS)
The motivations for VLT playing were listed as fun/entertainment, excitement,
winning money, escape (from problems) and challenge. Their preference for
VLTs over other gambling forms was reported as being due to speed of play,
excitement, ease of access, availability and convenience of play. They preferred
to play in lounges and hotels (because of the easy accessibility) and three-
quarters said that near wins and small wins maintain interest and excitement.
The AADAC also reported that VLT problem gamblers come from all segments
of the population, had gambled throughout life but had no problem until the
introduction of VLTs, and believed VLTs provide the greatest risk of problem
gambling. VLT problem onset was quicker than drugs/alcohol and players
thought they could influence play (despite there being no skill element). They
were also more likely to play alone (to limit interaction). With such little research
into VLTs it is hard to make any firm conclusions although the patterns of
problem play appear to be very similar to that of slot machines in general. With
this in mind, it should perhaps be considered that the conclusions we make about
slot machines in the next section might also be applicable to VLTs.
This body of research suggests that the various structural characteristics of
instant scratchcards and VLTs at the very least have the potential to induce
excessive gambling regardless of the gambler themselves. However, some
structural characteristics are capable of producing psychologically rewarding
experiences even in financially losing situations - particularly the psychology of
International Gambling Studies Vol I, Sept 2001 38
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the near miss - although there is no evidence to suggest that the gambling
industry has used the psychological literature to 'exploit' gamblers. However, the
development of exploitative practices are not easy to define, identify or prevent.
We also argue that research demonstrates that scratchcards and VLTs are a
potentially 'hard' form of gambling. With their integrated mix of conditioning
effects, rapid event frequency, short pay out intervals and psychological rewards
coupled with the fact that these activities require little or no skill, are deceptively
inexpensive, are highly accessible (e.g. scratchcards are often sold in various
retail outlets), it is not hard to see how these types of gambling could become
repetitive habits.
Perhaps more worryingly is the way that instant lotteries are being used to
increase participation rates. Douglas (1995) has comprehensively overviewed
worldwide running of lotteries and has concluded that to increase participation,
US state lotteries are pressed to market lottery games that feature 'fast action'
and that offer a high degree of active involvement (e.g. scratchcards, VLTs). For
instance, in Missouri (USA), they change and revamp their games every six to
eight weeks. Consumption of products can also be influenced by live TV draws,
introduction of other games, ease of purchase, ease of awareness (placed on shop
counters to encourage impulse ticket purchases). Play value is also augmented in
some instant games through employment of a continuity device, enabling
customer to win a further prize (e.g. words, amount, TV link-in etc.). Latex-rub
panels add to the 'play value' of the game and the visual appeal of the ticket is
also important in helping to encourage purchase (Douglas 1995).
Conclusions
In examining the research worldwide, a number of clear trends have been
established. With regards to weekly or bi-weekly lotteries there is little evidence
that they are addictive. This is primarily because of their low event frequency
(i.e.
there are a number of days between knowing the result of each gamble).
However, there are a number of caveats. Preliminary research in the UK on
young adolescents does suggest that lotteries may be problematic for a small
minority of these individuals (see Wood and Griffiths 1998). This needs to be
monitored as it may be the case that there is a developmental effect occurring in
these situations and that adolescents may be more 'at risk' than adults even when
playing on lotto-type games. Secondly, problem gamblers in some countries (e.g.
Spain, Sweden) do report lottery gambling as a secondary form of gambling
although there is little evidence that it is this particular form of gambling which
is directly problematic.
Scratchcards and VLTs appear to be a different proposition to discontinuous
lottery games and appear to have the potential to promote repetitive habit
patterns. Although the evidence is somewhat sparse, there does appear to be
evidence in a number of countries (e.g. UK, Spain, Belgium, Holland, Germany)
that scratchcards are a problem to a small minority of people in that they have
either turned up at treatment clinics in those countries or have rung a national
gambling helpline.
International Gambling Studies Vol I, Sept 2001 39
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From the overview of the psychological literature, there is plenty of evidence to
suggest that a gambler's ignorance about probability or situational cues may
encourage gamblers to think they have some influence over mainly chance-
determined activities. However, it is difficult to use such information directly in
regulation of these activities. Another complicating factor is that educating the
public about gambling may have the reverse of the desired effect and actually
increase awareness. It may be that regulation is best achieved not through
changing the structural characteristics but through such practices as prohibition
of advertising, decreasing the number of outlets for gambling available and
geographically locating gambling establishments away from sites where more
vulnerable members of the population are found (e.g. schools, colleges). In one
US survey (Creigh-Tyte and Farrell 1998) respondents said that to combat
underage sales, the price should be raised rather than the age limit. This is also a
possible option.
It is clear from our review that more research on this topic is needed in almost
every country. However, more is needed than basic sociological work on
demographics and spending levels on lotteries. Research is needed on both the
social and psychological impact of lotteries (in all their forms) with more work
concentrating on the minority of heavier spending players. The current trend of
producing statistics on the 'average' player does little in assessing the potential
problems at the extreme end of the gambling spectrum. There is also the need to
monitor the uptake in other forms of gambling and to further assess the impact of
continuing deregulation policy. This needs to be done longitudinally to get a
proper sense of the emerging impact. Problematic gambling levels need to be
assessed using bona fide addiction criteria - not through indirect measures such as
gambling expenditure. There is also a clear need for prevalence surveys as very
few countries have attempted to systematically to do this.
Gambling on instant scratchcards and VLTs are of particular worry because they
are not an extension of lotto-type games but are totally separate forms of
gambling which gives all purchasers the chance to gamble continuously (rather
than once or twice a week) for a large prize. We would argue that scratchcards
and VLTs are in fact 'hard gambling' in that they (i) produce psychologically
rewarding experiences in losing situations by simulating 'near winning'
experiences; (ii) have short payout intervals of a few seconds (i.e rapid event
frequency); (iii) are deceptively inexpensive; (iv) require no skill; (v) provide
opportunity for repeated and continuous gambling; and (vi) are highly accessible.
Further to this, by means of advertising and television coverage, children and
adolescents are being introduced to the principles of gambling (as witnessed in
countries like the UK). Problematic gambling is far more likely with scratchcards
and VLTs because people can engage in instant and continuous gambling (rather
than wait once or twice a week for the result on other lottery games).
Finally, we would like to add that this paper says as much about the research that
needs to be done as it does about that which has been carried out already. The
focus of this paper is the psychology of lottery gambling (including scratchcards
and VLTs). The picture presented is somewhat speculative as there is little
empirically-based research in the established peer-reviewed literature on the
psychology of lottery gambling. It is hoped that papers such as this will provide
International Gambling Studies Vol 1, Sept 2001 40
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the starting basis for others in both the academic and gambling industry
communities to 'fill in the gaps'. We hope at the very least our paper will bring
forth other existing work that we have been unable to locate and foster new
research projects in this area.
International Gambling Studies Vol 1, Sept 2001 41
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