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Assessment of climate change impacts on the Caspian Sea,
Iranian coastal wetlands, using by GIS
Fereidoon Owfi 1, Mahnaz Rabbaniha 2, Fahimeh shokoohfar 3,
1)Iranian Fisheries Research Organization, Marine Fishery Ecologist (Ph.D)
2)Iranian Fisheries Research Organization, Marine Biologist (Ph.D)
3) Qazvin Azad University, Urban planner (M. Sc.)
What is Global Climate change ?
•Global Climate Change (or more commonly known as global warming) is
getting worse every year. Global warming is when the temperatures get
abnormally higher and higher. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change) conclude that most of the temperature increases since the
20th century was probably caused by the increases of greenhouse gases
from things such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.
•These graphs show the change of temperatures over the years global
warming isn’t just recently.
How is Global Warming affecting the Seas?
•Carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases trap heat, leading to
global warming. The increase in ocean temperature is 1°C over the last
several ten years. But even such changes have caused mass-coral mortality
events around the world. During some of the especially warm summers, over
the last ten years.
•In the Pacific and Indian Oceans, coral bleaching is widespread. Causing
mass coral mortality in many countries. For example, in Palau, more than
90% of the corals reefs are bleached and at least 50% perished. Even some
isolated reefs were impacted. In the Maldives, in the east Indian Ocean,
bleaching caused coral cover to plummet to only about 5%.
Coastal Zones of IRAN
•Iran has two separate coastlines at its north and south with
completely different characteristics
• Iran’s northern coastal zone along Caspian Sea is 750 km in
length with mild climate, long rainy seasons, and dense forests.
•There are 3 provinces along Caspian Sea (Gilan, Mazandaran,
and Golestan) with pleasant weather and natural beautiful
green landscapes, rich in producing rice, tea, cotton, and
different kinds of fruits. These provinces host millions of tourists
each year during summer time
IRAN’s Long-term Goals and Objectives
for the Caspian Sea Coastal Regions
1. Utilization of seas for interaction and communication with the world in
order to extend Iran's economical outreach and establishment of
sustainable development in coastal areas.
2. Making ground for a sustainable socioeconomic development in the
coastal areas via appropriate exploitation of the coastal zone
capabilities
3. Conflict resolution in laws, regulations, and activities of
governmental, cooperative, and private sectors
4. Putting the human settlements and installations in order, in the
coastal areas.
5. Protection of the Environment at the coastal areas.
6. Reducing the risk of natural hazards for communities and
installations along the coastlines.
Caspian Sea Countries
Caspian Environment Program
(CEP)
Climate change-related land degradation or
desertification is another phenomenon affecting
all Caspian Sea littoral states. In the normal
course of events, a lack of rainfall and extreme
summer evaporation result in a high level of
aridity in the Caspian Sea region, especially in
coastal areas of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
But deserts and desertification are not limited to
the eastern part of the Caspian Sea coastal
zone.
Land degradation hot spots stretch all around
the Caspian Sea, caused by differing factors.
The areas most prone to degradation are in
Kazakhstan, due to degradation of vegetation
and soil through oil and gas production.
Flooding incidents from 1979 to 1995 and
increased salinization led to further adverse
consequences.
Iranian and Southern part of the Caspian Sea including: three provinces as
name Gillan (west), Mazandaran (middle) and Golestan (east) with 890km
coastline length. Mentioned area has diverse ecosystems and unique habitats
with special characteristics, ecological landforms which are an important
environmental and geographical role in the process of assuming the coastal
areas.
Biodiversity and habitat, distribution patterns of fauna and flora communities,
biological and non-biological resources and valuable marine –coastal living
stocks get affected by the Caspian Sea climate seasonally and annual
fluctuation.
These wetlands areAnzali, Kiyahshahr and Amir Kelaye in Gillan province,
Lapo, Palangan and Shirkhan in Mazanderan, and Alagol, Ajigol, Almagol,
Gomishan, Miyankale peninsula and Gorgan Bay in Golestan province,
respectively from west to east.The results were showed that climate change;
sea level fluctuations of the Caspian Sea s have negative direct and indirect
impacts on the ecological status of wetlands.
The most important consequences are increase of sedimentation capacity and
develop of sediment cells, remove of merged and sub merged aquatics plants,
destroy of fish habitats and migration cluttering of Anadromus and Catadromus
species.
The most important factor leading to
degradation in Russian territories surrounding
the Caspian Sea —mainly in Chernije Zemli
(Black Lands) region in the Kalmykhian
Republic —is wind erosion.
In the more humid coastal areas of Iran and
Azerbaijan, where rainfall is more than 600-
1000 mm/year, deforestation and water erosion
result in the degradation of vegetation. One of
the main environmental problems of flatlands in
the south of Turkmenistan remains high salinity
of soils (CEP website).
The Caspian Sea Region Economics
•Large oil and natural gas reserves
•Large fishing industry (90% of the World’s caviar)
Physical Geography
• Situated between southeastern Europe and Asia.
• The largest enclosed body of water on earth, extends 1200 km
N-S and covers ~ 400,000 km2
• Surrounded by mtns to the south and west, and desert to the
east, lowlands to the north
• 130 rivers flow into the sea including the Volga which contributes
80% of total runoff
• Only outflow is into the Kara- Bogaz-Gol Bay to the east
Dividing
the
Caspian Sea
At present, most scientists seem to agree that climate change
plays a significant role in sea level fluctuations in the Caspian
Sea, since temperature increases and changes in precipitation
directly impact the overall water balance –termed total inflow and
evaporation.
Impacts of disasters
•Physical (buildings, structures, physical property, industry, roads, bridges,
etc.)
•Environmental (water, land/soil, land-use, landscape, crops, lake/rivers /
estuaries, aquaculture, forests, animals/livestock, wildlife, atmosphere,
energy, etc.)
•Social (life, health, employment, relations, security, peace, etc.)
•Economic (assets, deposits, reserves, income, commerce, production,
guarantee/insurance, etc.)
Physical Environmental
Disaster Event
SOCIAL
Economic
Environment Impact Matrix
Air Water Land Crops Wildlife Livestock Forests Waste
Flood S D D D D D D D
Cyclone D D D D D D D D
Drought I D D D D D D I
Earthquake S, C I, C I -- L D -- D
Landslide -- S D -- I-- D D
Chemical D D D D D, C D D, C D
Nuclear D D, S D D, S D D D, L D
Biological S D, C S C C C C D
Civil C C C, I -- -- -- -- C
Transport C C C L -- -- -- D
D=Direct, I=Indirect, S=Secondary, L=Less, C=Case specific
Context Differences EIA
Normal and Disaster Assessments
Normal
•Lead Time
•Legal Requirement
•Deliberate and pro-active
•Will be comprehensive
•“No project” an option
•Location known
•Duration planned
•Beneficiary populations
known and static
•Environmental goals can be
made compatible with
economic ones
Disaster
•Sudden onset
•Rarely a legal requirement
•Reactive
•May need to be partial in
coverage
•“No project” not an option
•Unpredictable location
•Uncertain duration
•Population dynamic and
heterogeneous
•Saving lives given priority
•Activities sometimes hard
to reconcile with
environmental goals.
Pastakia Strategy Analyses
Preceding
Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 5Unit 4
Value
Selected
sub-sector
Sub-sector analysis
Value Chain Selection
Value chain analysis
Value chain intervention strategy
Value chain intervention
Eco-Geo Chain –Pastakia Assessment
High
Period /
Power
Low
Low High
Parameters / Value
Unit
1
East Destroyed
Habitats
Unit
2
East -
Center
Unit
3 &4
West
Center
New
Habitats
Unit
4 & 5
West
Likely effects on disaster impacts
on environmental components and assets
Impact
component
Likely environmental effects (tentative list) of disaster event
Air Air pollution, toxic release, local-climatic change, global warming
contribution
Water Water pollution, water scarcity, chemical spillage, waste discharge, loss of
aquatic life, eutrophication
Land Soil erosion, soil contamination, acidity/alkalinity/sodicity, aridity,
wetland-loss, land-use conflict, debris/waste
Crops Crop damage, crop failure, pre-crop condition failures, quality loss
Wildlife Loss of habitat, animal death or illness, migration, food scarcity
Livestock Animal death, loss of fodder, illness, breeding troubles, migration
Forests Vegetation damage, structural/functional failures, produce/services loss
Waste Carcasses, Debris, Damaged goods, e-waste, hazardous/infectious waste
Aesthetic Loss of natural landscape, ecotourism, recreation, and psycho-spiritual
services
Disaster cycle Likely environmental impact causes, examples
Pre-disaster stage: •Environmental impacts of structural mitigation
Land-use alteration
Environmental impacts and wastes during mock-drills
During Disaster
(Natural –Earthquake,
Landslide,
Tsunami, Flood,
Drought, Cyclone;
Man-made –
Chemical/
industrial, nuclear,
biological, civil)
•Structural waste/debris/e-waste/carcasses
Air pollution, contamination, toxic release
Fire and/or explosion, Hazardous wastes exposure
Water pollution
Radiation
Noise
Land degradation, contamination, soil loss
Vegetation –crop/ forest, biodiversity damage
Wetland loss
Coastal beach/ River bank erosion
Post-disaster
(Relief-rehab. phase)
•Waste generation from relief operation (food, medical, shelter, packaging)
Water shortage, Water pollution, loss of fisheries
Air pollution due to waste/carcasses disposal, transport, etc.
Land-use and landscape changes for shelters/ camps etc.
Environmental impacts due to relief road/bridge making
Environmental impacts due to other emergency supplies
Hazardous waste recoveries
Spoilages of industrial materials and goods
Local climatic-setting alteration
Post-disaster (recovery
and later –long
term)
•Environmental impacts of changed land-use and landscape
Environmental impacts of persistent chemicals release in system
Biotic pressure of the altered settings of rehabilitated population
Environmental impacts due to peoples increased dependence on ecosystem resources
because of losses to their crops/livelihoods
Biodiversity changes and alien species invasion
Problems in the Caspian Sea Coastal Zone
a) Natural and Environmental problems
•Discharge of municipal, industrial, and agricultural liquid / solid waste to the sea
•Unsystematic and/or overexploitation of natural resources
•Pollution of coastal areas due to limitation of land for waste disposal
•Sea water level rise
•Coastal erosion
•Threats to biodiversity
•Sea-Based sources of pollution
b) Economical problems
•Low productivity of agricultural activities and unsuitable use of land
•Decreasing trend of fish resources (including sturgeon)
•Lack of parent industries, and/or supporting industries
•Weak and inactive marine trade
c) Spatial (Landuse) problems
•Irregular/illegal construction and development
•Restricted public access to the sea
•Lack of suitable landuse plan for coastal zone development
•Shoreline / coastal land ownership (real-state problems)
•Unlawful change in land use (especially agricultural lands)
•Inadequate transportation infrastructures
d) Social-cultural problems
•High population rate
•Rapid / undesirable change in cultural texture
IRAN’s Strategies for Caspian Sea Coastal Zone
1. Supporting business activities that have proved to be consistent
with environmental capacities of the coastal areas
2. Establishment of an integrated management system in the
coastal zone
3. Providing public access to the beach
4. Providing suitable conditions for participation of people in the
coastal management affairs
5. Protection and restoration of coastal habitats
6. Prevention of pollution and destruction of coastal environment.
7. Establishment of a unified information system and database in
the coastal zones
IRAN’s Policies for the Caspian Sea Coastal Zone
1. Strengthening potential tourism capabilities and promoting its
management efficiency at the national and international levels
and giving priority to the private sector
2. Preventing irregular expansion of coastal cities and considering
the shoreline's limitations for establishing new human
settlements
3. Preventing marine environment pollution, prevention of forest
destruction, protection of soil / water resources and enhancing
shoreline ecotourism via strengthening environmental
management
4. Land allocation consistent with coastal environment's potentials
and capabilities
5. Equalization of distribution of population and activities along the
coast consistent with the existing ecological capacities
Thank You
for your kindly attention