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Global trade, assistance and production: the GTAP 6 Data Base
... The GE simulation using GTAP (Hertel, 1997, Hertel andTsigas, 1997) is used to analyze the impacts of the elimination of European Union production quotas on welfare and other key sectors in the overall ACP economy, while the econometric method is designed to estimate the micro level responses (wages, income) at farm levels in selected ACP countries. The GE simulation employs secondary data (Narayanan, Walmsley, 2008) whereas the econometric method uses survey data, especially at farm and factory levels where relevant quantitative and qualitative information was collected to evaluate the impacts on income and wages of small farmers and workers in selected ACP countries. ...
... The GTAP Data Base 8 (Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008) is the dataset used in tandem with the GTAP model as well as with several other global CGE models. For the purposes of this study, the data are aggregated to 10 regions, 8 sectors and 5 factor endowments. ...
... The GTAP database (Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008) shows that sugar production accounts for about one fifth of annual average revenues generated from agricultural and food production in ACP countries.However, this does not include indirect employment and services, such as the contribution of sugar to the food and beverage industries. ...
European Union sugar production quotas will be abolished on 30 September 2017, signaling the European Union’s move toward self-sufficiency in sugar, and the end of preferential access of the Africa-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) sugar to the European Union markets. ACP countries export about 1.7 million tonnes of sugar per year to the European Union and in many of these ACP countries sugar revenues represent significant shares of both national income and agricultural income, providing for noteworthy direct and indirect employment. The precise magnitude of the impact that the loss of these export markets will have on both the overall economy and welfare of small sugar farmers and workers, especially in ACP countries, remains unknown.
The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the elimination of the European Union sugar production quotas on ACP sugar production and trade, as well as, on welfare (including farmers’ welfare) and to examine the feasible options that the ACP sugar subsectors are considering to mitigate the brunt of this policy change, particularly as it will affect sugar farmers and workers. The approach taken in this study involves three distinct steps. First, the study examines the macroeconomic and trade impact on ACP countries of the European Union sugar production policy shift. To gain a better understanding of the welfare impacts of the sugar policy changes on a heterogeneous group such as the ACP, we have divided the ACP countries into two broad income categories, the higher income group (average GNI per capita USD 8 500 per year) and the lower income ACP. The second step is a re-examination of these macroeconomic and trade impacts at the country level, with the focus on three ACP countries, namely Fiji, Guyana, and Madagascar. Using the field surveys conducted between November 2014 and February 2015, the effects of the European Union quota elimination are re-examined in depth, specifically to determine just how the elimination of European Union quotas and the reciprocal preferences will affect the income and welfare of sugar farmers and workers. The final step focuses on the feasible policy alternatives in these three countries, all of which will need to find a way to allow their sugar industries to adjust to the post-2017 era when reciprocity of preferential access is installed and when the European Union production quota is finally abolished. These alternative policies will allow us to draw broader policy implications for the impacts of the sugar policy changes on the ACP countries as a group.
The base case scenario indicates that the elimination of European Union production quotas could lead to a 10 percent increase in European Union output and a 25 percent decline in ACP sugar exports to the European Union. This will cost the ACP sugar industry an annual loss of about USD 255 to 298 million, the bulk of which will be borne by the lower-income ACP countries. Moreover, total welfare in the ACP countries will decline by USD 74 million per year. A welfare loss of this entity, stemming from the fall in exports to the European Union, will cut domestic production (both price and input uses) and lead both to a loss of employment and to capital flight out of the sugar industry. Consumer welfare will increase slightly in ACP countries, due to a 1.0 to 2.0 percent decline in sugar prices, but sugar intra-trade among ACP countries will decline significantly, while intra-trade of sugar in the European Union is expected to increase. European Union welfare, on the other hand, declines by more than USD 400 million, primarily because of the negative allocative efficiency effects of the changes. But its total exports (including those to the ACP countries) will increase by 45 to 53 percent.
Additional shocks to the base scenario were introduced in the analysis to examine other policy effects. For instance, taking into account unemployment in the European Union, the simulation shows European Union welfare increases by USD 5.6 billion because of allocative efficiency and endowment effects, whereas ACP welfare declines by USD 52 million. Allowing for European Union unemployment in the model yields no major deviations from the results on sugar trade flows under a regime of full employment. A further addition to the base scenario is the elimination of bilateral tariffs on sugar between European Union and ACP countries and the rest of the world’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in order to mimic reciprocal preferential access.
The results show that although both trading blocs benefit from this kind of free trade scenario, the European Union by far is the biggest winner. Because of allocative efficiency (using input resources where they are most productive) and endowment effects (increased hiring of labour and capital) despite a USD 450 million loss in the terms of trade, the European Union’s welfare gain would be about USD 19.6 billion. The ACP countries’ welfare gain instead would be about USD 1.53 billion (99% of which accrue to the low-income ACP group) due to improvement in both the terms of trade and in endowment effects. But their sugar trade surplus with the European Union would decline steeply as the European Union increases production and exports of their own, as well as intra ACP trade would decline significantly by about 15 to 19 percent as some of the incremental exports from the European Union end up in net sugar importing ACP countries through the reciprocity agreement between the two trading blocs. Sensitivity analyses based on varying the extent of the elimination of European Union production quotas from 2.0 to 10 percent show consistent results in that the elimination of the European Union production quota is always shown to damage ACP welfare and its sugar sub-sector. In many ACP countries, small-scale farmers contribute significantly to sugar production. Surveys carried out by FAO in 2014 and 2015 in selected ACP countries, namely Fiji, Guyana and Madagascar, show that the decline in export demand from the European Union resulting from the elimination of import quotas will significantly affect incomes of small farmers (smallholders) and sugar factory workers. Smallholders in Fiji and Madagascar, are price-takers with limited land for expansion. Estimates based on survey data indicate that a 25 percent decline in export demand at country level will reduce income of smallholders by 11 and 19 percent, respectively, in Madagascar and Fiji, reflecting the dominance of sugar in the respective farming systems. Thus, an average small farmer earning a total crop revenue of USD 7 597 per year in Fiji and of USD 7 026 in Madagascar would lose about USD 1 444 and USD 773 per year respectively. We also found that the higher the sugarcane yields the higher the vulnerability of farms to supply shocks, implying that productivity gains remain fragile. The farm survey data point to the lack of competitiveness of sugar production at farm level.
The study concludes with the analysis of the policies and mechanisms that the ACP sugar industries are considering or are already implementing to cope with the expected fall in export demand, especially with regards to the European Union. Survey results indicate that diversification and a focus on domestic and regional markets have been among the solutions that the sugar sub-sector and local governments have started to implement. Some key coping strategies based on increasing production and competitiveness at farm and industry level are discussed in this study.
... The GTAP database (Brockmeier, 1996;Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008) consists in a collection of balanced country-level input-output (IO) tables, international trade data, protection data and environmental extensions, designed to be used in Computable General Equilibrium models and is a popu- GTAP information on international trade follows the structure described in the trade link problem of the previous section: the table is harmonized (each region has the same number of sectors) and symmetric (each industry produces a single commodity), and provides information on exports by commodity and pair of countries (but not destination sector) and imports by commodity for each sector (but not source country). ...
... GTAP species the contribution of each country c to a global pool of transportation services of a given category k (such as water, air or land), and how much transportation services of type k are used in a particular transaction of product i from region a to region b, but not which country is actually providing the service. This situation is related to the international transportation pool approach originally applied by Leontief to MRIO modelling (Miller and Blair, 2009 (1996); Narayanan and Walmsley (2008) and Peters et al. (2011a). The new blocks are: export duties/subsidies, V → EC (tables mf rv and xtrv); provision of international transportation, DF → IT , (table vst); import duties/subsidies, V → IC (table tf rv); payment of international transport, IT → IC (table vtwr); and transfer from export to import rms, EF → IF , the dierence being the export taxes. ...
... We further extend the model to include a detailed representation of bioenergy production and use. Version 5 of the EPPA model is solved through time in five-year increments and is calibrated using economic data from Version 7 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008), population forecasts from the United Nations Population Division (UN, 2011), and energy data from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2006, 2012). ...
... We further extend the model to include a detailed representation of bioenergy production and use. Version 5 of the EPPA model is solved through time in five-year increments and is calibrated using economic data from Version 7 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008), population forecasts from the United Nations Population Division (UN, 2011), and energy data from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2006IEA, , 2012). Regional economic growth through 2015 is calibrated to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data (IMF, 2013). ...
What are the feasibility, costs, and environmental implications of large-scale bioenegry? We investigate this question by developing a detailed representation of bioenergy in a global economy-wide model. We develop a scenario with a global carbon dioxide price, applied to all anthropogenic emissions except those from land use change, that rises from $25 per metric ton in 2015 to $99 in 2050. This creates market conditions favorable to biomass energy, resulting in global non-traditional bioenergy production of ~. 150 exajoules (EJ) in 2050. By comparison, in 2010, global energy production was primarily from coal (138 EJ), oil (171 EJ), and gas (106 EJ). With this policy, 2050 emissions are 42% less in our Base Policy case than our Reference case, although extending the scope of the carbon price to include emissions from land use change would reduce 2050 emissions by 52% relative to the same baseline. Our results from various policy scenarios show that lignocellulosic (LC) ethanol may become the major form of bioenergy, if its production costs fall by amounts predicted in a recent survey and ethanol blending constraints disappear by 2030; however, if its costs remain higher than expected or the ethanol blend wall continues to bind, bioelectricity and bioheat may prevail. Higher LC ethanol costs may also result in the expanded production of first-generation biofuels (ethanol from sugarcane and corn) so that they remain in the fuel mix through 2050. Deforestation occurs if emissions from land use change are not priced, although the availability of biomass residues and improvements in crop yields and conversion efficiencies mitigate pressure on land markets. As regions are linked via international agricultural markets, irrespective of the location of bioenergy production, natural forest decreases are largest in regions with the lowest barriers to deforestation. In 2050, the combination of carbon price and bioenergy production increases food prices by 3.2%-5.2%, with bioenergy accounting for 1.3%-3.5%.
... The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) emerged as the most frequently used data source, surpassing the use of personal databases, the IEA, and national statistics. GTAP's comprehensive coverage of bilateral and multilateral cooperation among more than 140 countries/ regions, combined with its high accessibility, frequent updates, and rigorous quality assurance of data, are likely factors contributing to its prominent position [175]. ...
This research presents a thorough evaluation of macroeconomic modelling tools in the context of analysing industrial transformation. It emphasizes the need to link macroeconomic models with energy system models to accurately depict industrial transformation. The study begins with a broad survey of macroeconomic modelling tools. A detailed database of 61 tools is then compiled, providing a critical analysis of the tools' structures and features. From this broad spectrum, the focus is narrowed to Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The study develops a multi-criteria analysis framework, applied specifically to four CGE modelling tools, which encompasses 19 criteria categorized under four main pillars: Industrial/Sectoral representation, Technological change, Employment, and Environment. This framework critically evaluates these tools' suitability in analysing industrial transformation, highlighting the diversity of their capabilities and limitations. Although the GEM-E3 model demonstrates a high level of alignment with the framework's criteria, none of the four tools achieves a full score in any category, indicating potential areas for improvement. The broader analysis of the database's tools reveals issues such as limited accessibility, inadequate representation of social aspects, and insufficient geographical coverage. Additionally, the study notes a general lack of transparent information concerning the full features of macroeconomic modelling tools in public literature. Concluding with recommendations for further research, the study underscores the complexities in macroeconomic modelling and the need for comprehensive tools that effectively address the multifaceted aspects of industrial transformation. Such advancements will assist in making informed decisions towards a transformation that is both environmentally and economically sustainable.
... Notably, factor input F i may collect both the value-added components (with prices i different than zero) and the environmental transactions (with prices i equal to zero), including CO 2 emissions, energy use, land use, and so on. Several MRIO can be adopted for this purpose, and the main ones are: Eora [39], WIOD [40], GTAP [41] and EXIOBASE [42]. Selection of the appropriate database depends on the purpose and scope of the analysis; a comprehensive comparison among them can be found in the recent literature [43]. ...
Policy initiatives towards reduction of CO2 emissions implemented so far are grounded on the so-called Production-Based paradigm: this approach allocates responsibility of emissions to countries that directly caused such emissions, without taking into account all the indirect contributions to CO2 emissions caused outside country’s borders, eventually leading to the so-called carbon leakage phenomenon. In this paper, the alternative Consumption-Based approach is proposed, and its effectiveness assessed: according to this approach, policy initiatives allocates responsibility for CO2 emissions proportionally to the CO2 emissions embedded in goods and services required by industries as inputs for production. Global environmental and economic consequences of carbon emissions reduction policies, applied at the European level based on both Production- and Consumption-Based paradigms, are comparatively assessed based on the World Trade Model with Bilateral Trades. Results of this study suggest that defining CO2 emissions policies based on a Consumption-Based paradigm seems to be the most effective way to reduce the global carbon emissions, avoiding the carbon leakage phenomenon which may occur in economies regulated by Production-Based policies. Indeed, an imposed reduction in CO2 emissions embedded in EU final demand through a Consumption-Based Accounting policy would result in a global CO2 emissions reduction up to almost 1.2 Gton. On the other hand, an imposed reduction in direct EU CO2 emissions according to a PBA approach would result in an overall increase in global carbon emissions up to almost 0.8 Gton.
... Although the recent study of the EBB (Darlington et al., 2013) used a version of the GTAP database to calculate land conversion and ILUC emissions from increased consumption of FGBs in the EU according to an 8.75% target -as projected for 2015-, the effects of the COM 595 together with the anti-dumping duties have not been studied yet. Similarly, Al-Riffai, Dimaranan and Laborde (2010) applied the MIRAGE model, based on the GTAP 7 database (Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008), to analyze the interaction between a 5.6% target for FGBs in 2020 and trade liberalization measures on imports from the MERCOSUR countries, also in terms of LUC effects. ...
The European Union (EU) has emerged as a major producer and consumer of biodiesel, due to policy initiatives. Recent policies seek to curb imports from USA, Argentina and Indonesia by imposing anti-dumping duties. Further, there has been a proposal to set a cap on First Generation Biofuels (FGBs) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Land Use Change (LUC). In this paper, we employ the widely used GTAP-BIO model to examine these recent EU policies. Increased biodiesel consumption arising from the cap on FGBs and increased import prices arising from anti-dumping measures are both modeled as exogenous policy shocks. We find that the biodiesel imports increase despite these anti-dumping measures, because of the enormous expansion of domestic demand, mainly for palm biodiesel. Biodiesel producers in the EU benefit from these policies as well, especially those producing rapeseed and non-food-based biodiesel, but also palm biodiesel due to imports of vegetable oils. LUC is expected to occur at a global scale as a consequence of biodiesel trade and interactions in the food and feed markets. Besides the EU, other countries such as the US, Brazil or South-Saharan Africa can be affected.
... Up until 2010, a number of EE MRIO databases were already available, but they all had significant drawbacks for environmental analysis: The IDE-JETRO (Meng et al. 2012) database goes back to the 1970s, but covers mainly Asian countries and is hence not suitable for global, MRIO-based, assessments. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) (Narayanan and Walmsley 2008) provides a database of harmonized input-output (I-O) tables (IOTs) and trade data which can be used to construct MRIO tables . While providing a very good country coverage, the GTAP-based MRIO consist of only 57 sectors, which hampers adequate assessments of, for example, material footprints. ...
Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) with a high sectorial detail matched with multiple social and environmental satellite accounts. In this paper, we present the latest developments realized with EXIOBASE 3—a time series of EE MRIO tables ranging from 1995 to 2011 for 44 countries (28 EU member plus 16 major economies) and five rest of the world regions. EXIOBASE 3 builds upon the previous versions of EXIOBASE by using rectangular supply-use tables (SUTs) in a 163 industry by 200 products classification as the main building blocks. In order to capture structural changes, economic developments, as reported by national statistical agencies, were imposed on the available, disaggregated SUTs from EXIOBASE 2. These initial estimates were further refined by incorporating detailed data on energy, agricultural production, resource extraction, and bilateral trade. EXIOBASE 3 inherits the high level of environmental stressor detail from its precursor, with further improvement in the level of detail for resource extraction. To account for the expansion of the European Union (EU), EXIOBASE 3 was developed with the full EU28 country set (including the new member state Croatia). EXIOBASE 3 provides a unique tool for analyzing the dynamics of environmental pressures of economic activities over time.
... The study uses the same data which were used in GTAP (version seven), 1 and those data are indicative of the global economy in 2004 (Narayanan and Walmsley [26]). These data are aggregated into 16 countries and regions, 30 sectors and 3 primary factors (Table A.1), for the purpose of constructing the SAMGEM. ...
... This article employs GTAP database 7 which originally includes 57 commodities and 113 regions with 2004 as the base year (Narayanan et al, 2008). We aggregate the GTAP product groups into 11 sectors; the details of these are presented in Table 4. Table 5 presents an overview of the regional aggregation, which includes India and EU as well as other countries aggregated by regions. ...
Trade agreements are increasingly being negotiated between developed and emerging economy partners. An example is the EU–India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for which negotiations began in 2007. There has been a debate on the potential effects of the proposed FTA and how this can impact on India’s key export sectors. Our study addresses this aspect from a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling perspective. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) framework, we analyse trade and welfare impacts of the proposed FTA between the EU and India. Two scenarios are modelled: first, complete and immediate elimination of tariff on all goods traded and second, selective tariff elimination on textiles, wearing apparel and leather goods—products in which India has a comparative advantage. Results under both scenarios show that India enjoys positive welfare effects though there is a possibility of trade diversion. Under scenario 1, India loses due to a negative terms of trade (ToT) effect. Under scenario 2, with selective sectoral liberalisation, gains are mainly concentrated in the textiles, wearing apparel and leather sectors. There is a positive output effect from change in demand for factors of production, suggesting that the proposed FTA could lead to relocation of labour-intensive production to India.
JEL Classification: F15, F47, F62
... Most of the data on labour costs are taken from the data base from Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) ( Badri et al. 2008), which GRACE is based on. The LAMENT model singles out overhead per employee, however, which is not provided by GTAP. ...
... It is initially calibrated to the year 2004. The standard GTAP protection database (see Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008 ) is altered to include a more complete set of estimates of distortions in agricultural prices in developing countries, based on Valenzuela and Anderson (2008). 2 Those distortion estimates suggest that, despite reforms in the past 25 years, there was still a considerable range of industry assistance rates across commodities and countries in 2004, including a strong anti-trade bias in national agricultural and trade policies for many developing countries. Furthermore, non-agricultural protectionism is still rife in some developing countries, and agricultural price supports in some high-income countries 3 remain high. ...
The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.
... Existing studies are mainly based on datasets, such as OECD, GTAP and EORA. GTAP reconcile UN Comtrade data using Gehlhar's method and optimization procedures (Gehlhar, 1996; Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008). All of its results in GTAP are displayed in market price, which is equivalent to basic price and CIF valuation method, at the same time, with the re-export matters solved. ...
... For more details on the GTAP 7.0 data base, seeNarayanan and Walmsley (2008). ...
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of government spending with the Interest Rates Equalization (IRE) policy on the economic growth of Brazilian regions. Additionally, it aims to measure the opportunity cost of the subsidy in relation to an alternative application in the transportation sector. The model, database, and software from the General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG) are applied to the simulations. The result shows that the IRE policy provides economic growth in the Midwestern, Northeastern and Southern regions above the cost of the policy. Besides, in the Northern and Southeastern regions, there is a decrease in the GDP. For Brazil, the policy is cost-effective and offers a 34% return. Furthermore, all regions benefit in terms of welfare. For the country, in terms of GDP or welfare, spending on the IRE has zero opportunity cost. The IRE policy is efficient and contributes to reducing regional disparities.
... In the database there are 113 regions and 57 commodities that are aggregated into 11 commodities and 8 regions. It is important to note that detailed description of GTAP database version 7 is found in Bardi et al (2008). In the same light a detailed description of the history (evolution) and mechanics of the GTAP model is presented in Hertel et al (1997). ...
... The EPPA model is a recursive-dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. The model is based on economic data from the Global Trade Analysis Project database (Narayanan and Walmsley 2008) and energy data from the International Energy Agency. The underlying sources of the GTAP data are national income and product account data collected by national statistical agencies. ...
Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.
... GTAP model applications are widely used particularly in research concerning international trade. The GTAP 7 Database [6] has been used in this study, representing the world economy for a given reference year --2004. The database comprises several types of data: behavioural parameters that include elasticities of substitution between domestic and imported goods, and elasticities of substitution between sources of imports (Armington [2] elasticities). ...
This paper focuses on using two different research methods interactively by integrating the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model with the Delphi method. This is to contribute to the current discussion in futures studies to integrate quantitative research methods with qualitative research methods. This undertaking is to improve and increase the depth of the knowledge base needed in decision making. Examples on how this can be achieved are presented together with a discussion on the benefits of combining both methods. However, this integrated approach requires a multidisciplinary research team with expertise in both types of methods, thus may be labour-intensive and expensive. The potential drawbacks in attempting to combine such divergent research methods can be countered by applying this integrated approach more often in research projects that anticipates the futures in order to enhance the learning curve. A check-list or simple manual for the approach to combine these methods can be drawn up to improve efficiency in the implementation process.
... Version 5 of the EPPA model is calibrated using economic data from Version 7 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (Narayanan and Walmsley, 2008) and energy data from the International Energy Agency. The model is coded using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) and the Mathematical Programming System for General Equilibrium analysis (MPSGE) modeling language (Rutherford, 1995). ...
In the international negotiations on climate change, new market mechanisms are considered to include emerging countries in the carbon market developed by more industrialized countries beyond the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The dissertation is composed of complementary analyses that aim at quantifying the impacts to expect from these sectoral mechanisms. Chapter 1 simulates sectoral trading between Chinese electricity sector and a hypothetical cap and trade in the United States, with the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. This computable general equilibrium approach is extended to the case of coupling between the European carbon market and the electricity sector of several emerging countries. Without any limit on the amount of permits that can be traded, the welfare in the emerging countries involved decreases despite the financial transfers associated with the trade in permits. Chapter 2 introduces a limit on the amount of permits that can be traded, in the case of coupling between the European carbon market and Chinese electricity sector. The limit induces a price difference between the two regions. When the associated rent is allocated to Chinese households, sectoral trading can be pareto improving. Chapter 3 is a time series analysis of the coexistence between CDM credits and European carbon permits. It examines the impact of the financial nature of carbon permits on the interactions between carbon markets. Chapter 4 quantifies the conditions of deployment of wind power in Denmark and compares them with the carbon price level observed in the first two chapters, and in Phase II of the European trading scheme.
Final Report of Package 2 on CGE Modelling, under the United Nations Development Programme Project Research on Fossil Fuel Prices And Taxes, And Their Effects On Economic Development And Income Distribution In Viet Nam.
The CGE analysis aims to explore the short and long run impacts of imposing
additional fossil fuel taxes and removing respective existing subsidies on the
Vietnamese economy. The objectives are to provide dynamic projections of the
potential effects on the development of different industrial subsectors, the effects on income distribution and welfare of different social groups, the impacts of fuel-tax�induced energy efficiency gains arising from the adoption of low carbon-intensive technologies and the incentives for R&D activities directed at low carbon technology innovation, and the effects on Viet Nam‟s external trade.
Résumé Cet article propose une méthodologie innovante pour estimer dans un cadre d’équilibre général calculable les effets indirects des politiques de biocarburants liés à l’usage des terres. Nous appliquons cette méthodologie à une évaluation des impacts cumulés des politiques d’incorporation américaine et européenne sous différentes options de politique commerciale. Nous concluons que la production d’éthanol dans ces deux pays n’a d’intérêt environnemental que sous des hypothèses restrictives : pour quatre des cinq jeux de paramètres testés, le temps de remboursement de la dette carbone associé au programme d’éthanol est supérieur à 10 ans en 2020. Les résultats restent toutefois très sensibles à certains paramètres et hypothèses et doivent être interprétés avec prudence. Classification JEL : F11 ; F18 ; Q15 ; Q56.
We extend the literature on global supply chains by analyzing if and how unilateral environmental regulation induces offshoring. We develop an analytical model of two‐stage production processes that can be distributed between two countries and investigate unilateral emission pricing and its supplementation with border carbon taxes. In contrast to existing final good models, we are able to show how impacts of regulation differ across the different stages of the supply chain, depending on the interplay of comparative advantages and general equilibrium effects. To get a more comprehensive picture, we subsequently apply a computable general equilibrium model that includes a representation of international supply chains. We find heterogeneous but mostly positive effects of a unilateral carbon emission reduction by the European Union on the degree of vertical specialization of European industries. Border taxes are successful in protecting upstream industries, but with negative side effects for downstream industries.
Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (∆T) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system's response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ∆T to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system's response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone, that have an emissions-induced uncertainty representing more than 40% of the uncertainty in the Earth system's response.
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters, but the models have not been fully validated by applying them to real disasters. This study focuses on validating a model for use in a short-run case in which the functional recovery of infrastructure and businesses occurred on a time scale of a few months. A special attempt is made to determine the parameter values of elasticity of substitutions, which play an important role in the effect on supply chains. In this study, a spatial CGE model, in which Japan is divided into nine regions, is constructed and applied to the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Through this application, the best estimates of the elasticity parameters generated relatively consistent estimates of production change compared with the observed change, both in severely affected regions and in other regions.
One of the most essential environment problem human beings need to face is the global temperature rise caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases including CO2, CH4 and N2O from human activities, among which CO2 is the major one (IPCC 2007). Carbon tax policy has been generally considered as one of the most market effective measures for carbon emission abatement (Baranzini et al. 2000). Compared with other reduction measures, carbon tax brings the double welfares of both government revenue and environment.
Currently, our world is in a serious situation regarding climate change, making it urgent to implement appropriate solutions.
This paper analyzes the economic impacts of changes in water availability due to climate change. We develop a new modeling approach as an alternative to include water as a production factor within a global CGE model. We tailor the structure of the ICES model to characterize the key features of the world economy with a detailed representation of the agricultural sector. In order to reach this objective, a new database has been built to explicitly consider water endowments, precipitation changes, and unitary irrigation costs. Results suggest different economic consequences of climate change depending on the specific region. Impacts are related to change in crop production, endowment demands, and international trade.
This article examines economic impacts under global climate agreements for abating greenhouse gases (GHGs) with interactions and heterogeneity among various regions. It uses the dynamic version of Evaluation Model for Environmental Damage and Adaption (EMEDA) developed for simulating global economic impacts resulting from climate change. Dynamic version of EMEDA consists of eight regions with each region broken down into eight sectors. We expand EMEDA into a dynamic version in five points; 1) capital accumulation, 2) population growth, 3) technological progress, 4) CO2 emissions and damages from global warming, and 5) a global warming model. Then, we define a base scenario on CO2 emissions reduction according to Copenhagen Accord. By the dynamic version of EMEDA, we measure regional impacts of climate change under business as usual (BaU) and the base scenario. Simulated results show that: 1) temperature rises more than 4 degree C in BaU scenario whereas temperature rise is less than 2.5 degree C in the base scenario, 2) simulated economic damage derived from CO2 emissions reduction rates attained by official announcements varies among regions and sectors, 3) the real GDP losses of Japan, the U.S. and EU are improved by CO2 emissions reduction, but real GDP losses of other regions are deteriorated; and 4) there exist several sectors of which the real value-added losses decrease in each region.
This paper examines the effects of knowledge diffusion on growth and the costs of climate policy. We develop a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth which represents knowledge diffusion between sectors and regions. Knowledge diffusion depends on accessibility and absorptive capacity which we estimate econometrically using patent and citation data. Knowledge diffusion leads to a “greening” of economies boosting productivity of “clean” carbon-extensive sectors. Knowledge diffusion lowers the costs of global climate policy by about 90% for emerging countries (China) and 20% for developed regions (Europe and USA), depending on the substitutability between different knowledge types. (JEL O33, O44, Q55, C68).
The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture. The evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development up to 2050. The detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro-ecological zones. Uncertainty about future climate is captured, using, as inputs, yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs. Climate change turns out to be negative for Nigeria in the medium term, with production losses and increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports, and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. In a second part of the paper, a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigerian agriculture is conducted. The adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper “soft measures” and more costly “hard” irrigation expansion. The main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low-cost opportunities which show a benefit-cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes.
Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.
New analysis suggests that the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia may be larger than previously estimated, possibly reaching 11% of gross domestic product by 2100.
Southeast Asia is likely to sustain larger economic losses from climate change than most other areas in the world. Moreover, those losses—the collective effect of impacts on agriculture, tourism, energy demand, labor productivity, catastrophic risks, health, and ecosystems—may be larger than previously estimated. When these loss estimates are considered simultaneously in the modeling, gross domestic product (GDP) is found to be reduced by 11% in 2100 under the business as usual emissions scenario of this study, which is 60% higher than the earlier ADB assessment.
Climate change is a global concern of special relevance to Southeast Asia, a region that is both vulnerable to the effects of climate change and a rapidly increasing emitter of greenhouse gases. From 1990 to 2010, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Southeast Asia have grown more rapidly than in any other region of the world.
The European Union is experiencing intense population ageing caused by increasing life expectancy and low birth rates. This trend is considered to be one of the major challenges affecting EU competitiveness in world markets, as well as the potential for economic growth and employment. Gradual transformation of social systems is increasingly necessary, because their current form is not structured to withstand a higher financial burden induced by the prolongation of retirement, an increased demand for health-care and long-term care for the elderly.
A majority of the existing scientific analyses is focused on the negative consequences of ageing with regard to public finances. Less attention is paid to the impact of ageing on the national economy parameters in terms of the changes in the volume and structure of demand and supply of products, services, labour and capital. The objective of this publication is to provide the reader with broader perspectives of the Silver Economy. New market opportunities initiated by an ageing population are mentioned in the current literature more frequently than before, but such a complex analysis of the Silver Economy as provided here is still an exception.
The first chapter represents a basic macroeconomic framework for the introduction of the Silver Economy, with the focus on the debt crisis and on causes of eflationary tendencies. It highlights the fact that, at times of demand and consumption crisis, it is important to find new pro-growth factors that could transform impulses from macroeconomic policy and structural reforms to higher economic growth and job creation. In this context we have to pay attention to both negative and positive consequences of population ageing.
The second chapter contains a definition of the Silver Economy and provides an overview of literature dealing with economic dimensions of population ageing. This chapter provides an overview in areas such as purchasing power, savings and consumption as well as new market opportunities for innovative companies responding to the needs of older people. Attention is paid also to the promotion of the Silver Economy at the European level. A case study at the end of this chapter presents the potential, opportunities and barriers in segments of spas and spa tourism – which we find to be a typical sector of silver industry in Slovakia.
The third chapter provides an overview of the latest tendencies and demographic trends in Europe. It compares the ageing process in various geographical regions of Europe, briefly presents the ageing trend on a worldwide level and identifies emerging economies as those facing the highest dynamics of population ageing. Analysis of actual stages of demographic transition among major EU trading partners is used to point at potential export markets for silver goods produced in Slovakia or elsewhere in Europe.
The fourth chapter deals with the context of an ageing population in relation to the formation of demand, because the trend of population ageing presents an opportunity for a saturation of needs, particularly in regions with high potential demand of older people. This chapter also provides insight into the differences and similarities in consumer behaviour of older people among individual EU countries. Particular attention is given to the consumer behaviour of older people in Slovakia. Model scenarios illustrate how changes in consumption patterns could affect employment in the EU.
An important part of this publication is the results of modelling the medium-term effects of an ageing population on the Slovak Economy. These results are presented in the concluding chapter. Since the expected changes in the context of population ageing are complex in nature and involve a number of factors (such as changes in population size, changes in consumer behaviour, etc.) we have prepared a number of scenarios while the obtained results provide important information relevant for the formulation of economic policy in Slovakia.
RESUMO:O objetivo deste artigo é determinar os efeitos de longo prazo do subsídio ao crédito rural sobre a produção, o comércio externo e a competitividade (via preços) do setor agropecuário na economia das macrorregiões brasileiras. As simulações foram realizadas com a aplicação do Projeto de Análise de Equilíbrio Geral da Economia Brasileira (Paeg). Verifica-se que a política de crédito rural representa importante estímulo à cadeia do agronegócio brasileiro, tendo em vista os impactos positivos sobre a produção, as exportações da agropecuária, e a expansão das indústrias com forte ligações com o setor agrícola, como químicos e indústria de alimentos e transportes. Ainda, a política está associada a ganho de competitividade (via preços) das commodities agropecuárias nacionais no mercado externo. ABSTRACT: The objective of this paper is to determine the long-term effects of rural credit on agricultural production, trade and competitiveness (through prices) in the Brazilian regions. The simulations were performed applying the General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG). The results suggest that the rural credit policy represents an important stimulus to the entire Brazilian agribusiness chains given the positive impacts on agriculture production, exports, and expansion of industries with strong linkages with the agricultural sector. Also, the policy is associated with agricultural competitiveness gains (through prices) in foreign markets.
Resumen: en este estudio se evalúan los efectos económicos que un acuerdo comercial entre la Comunidad Andina y la Unión Europea tendría sobre Colombia. La evaluación se hace mediante un modelo de equilibrio general computable multipaís y contempla dos conjuntos de escenarios. En el primero se asume una negociación bloque a bloque del acuerdo. En el segundo, se asume que la negociación es individual y que Bolivia y Ecuador no liberalizan su comercio con la Unión Europea. Los resultados indican que en caso de una completa liberalización del comercio de mercancías, Colombia obtendría ganancias de bienestar. También, muestran que dichas ganancias serían mayores si Ecuador no negocia. No obstante, la liberalización del comercio de bienes agrícolas, especialmente verduras y frutas, es crítica para los resultados
O objetivo geral do trabalho é avaliar os impactos dos gastos governamentais com a
política de Equalização das Taxas de Juros (ETJ) no crescimento econômico e bem-estar
das cinco macrorregiões brasileiras. As simulações foram realizadas através do
Projeto de Análise de Equilíbrio Geral da Economia Brasileira (PAEG). Verifica-se que
a política de ETJ proporciona crescimento econômico nas regiões Centro-Oeste,
Nordeste e Sul superior a seu custo. Por outro lado, nas regiões Norte e Sudeste,
observa-se queda no PIB mediante os gastos com a ETJ. Para o Brasil, a política é
custo-efetiva e apresenta retorno de 34%. Além disso, todas as regiões são
beneficiadas em termos de bem-estar. Conclui-se que a política de ETJ é eficiente e
contribui para a redução das disparidades regionais.
This paper examines the effects of knowledge diffusion on growth and costs of climate policy. We develop a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth which represents knowledge diffusion between sectors and regions. Knowledge diffusion depends on accessibility and absorptive capacity which we estimate econometrically using patent and citation data. Knowledge diffusion leads to a “greening” of economies boosting productivity of “clean” carbon-extensive sectors. Knowledge diffusion lowers the costs of global climate policy by about 90% for emerging countries (China) and 20% for developed regions (Europe and USA), depending on the substitutability between different knowledge types.
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes the latest version of the model. IMPACT version 3 expands the geographic and commodity scope of the model in response to desires expressed by researchers and policymakers to address more complex questions involving climate change, food security, and economic development into the future. IMPACT 3 is an integrated modeling system that links information from climate models (Earth System Models), crop simulation models (for example, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), and water models linked to a core global, partial equilibrium, multimarket model focused on the agriculture sector. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.
Since the Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011, safety concerns have escalated and policies toward nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the upward pressure on regional electricity prices from nuclear power phase out in four scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear power industry. We use a global general equilibrium model to calculate regional electricity prices that are matching demand with the constrained power supply after the nuclear power phase out. Nuclear power exit in Germany and Switzerland might increase electricity prices in Europe moderately by 2–3 % early on to 4–5 % by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. In a gradual and comprehensive phase out of plants built before 2011, North America, Europe, and Japan face an upward pressure on electricity prices in the range of 23–28 % towards 2035, representing the incentives for further investments in any kind of electricity.
This paper describes how we transformed the 2002 Ugandan Supply Use Table (SUT) into the required structure of a database for the static Ugandan CGE model Dixon et al. (ORANI: A multisectoral model of the Australian economy, 1982). We describe the unique features captured in the Ugandan SUT as well as that of the CGE database. We highlight the structural differences of the published data and that of the CGE database. In describing the SUT we identify data issues, such as negative capital rentals and omitted data entries that had to be addressed before the database could be constructed. The ideas put forward in this paper describe, in a pragmatic manner, not only how to transform published data into a CGE database, but also how to create an additional sector in the CGE database. For the Ugandan CGE database, we created an additional Oil sector.
Helping Southern African Development Community (SADC) members to effectively integrate into the world economy as well as maintaining sustainable development is a main objective of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between SADC and the European Union (EU). Nevertheless, the negotiation outcomes are still limited and are surrounded by sceptical concerns about adverse impacts of the proposed trade liberalization on SADC economies. The planned shift from a preferential to a reciprocal modality for SADC trade with the EU might undermine the intra-regional SADC trade and its trade with the non-EU partners. This is attributed to two effects: the potential trade displacement from the existing exporters to their corresponding European suppliers who face lower tariff protection and the expected replacement of domestic production by the European imports that may deteriorate the region's domestic production capacity and, consequently, its exporting ability. Some other reasons for caution are based on the adjustment costs associated with trade liberalization policy. The questions are, thus, whether the envisaged EPAs facilitate SADC integration both within the region and with the world as a whole and how the agreements structure should be formulated in a way that enhance the development process in the region. As a heterogeneous group as SADC is, it is reasonably expected that the EPAs' implications would vary considerably across its members. In addition, SADC states are involved in different and intertwined regional integration arrangements (RIAs) inside and outside Africa. Therefore, any examination for the envisaged EPAs' implications should consider the trade agreements in force and their impacts not only on SADC members but on their trade partners as well. It is thus appropriate to conduct thorough country-specific analyses within a general equilibrium framework. The study aims at quantifying the potential implications of the proposed EPAs on SADC economies by employing a comparative static version of the multi-sector multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) GLOBE model. Within this framework, the analysis focuses on the changes induced by different liberalization scenarios in welfare, trade and industrial structures, prices, and fiscal revenues. As such, the study starts by presenting the status quo of the integration process in the region. The ongoing EPA negotiations, challenges and outcomes are dealt with in the next section. The fourth section provides empirical analysis for SADC economies, paying special attention to their trade relations inside the region and with the EU. The fifth section is dedicated to illustrating the model specification, simulations design and findings interpretation. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are provided.
Contracting parties to the Agreement on South Asian Free Trade Area
(SAFTA) are committed to trade liberalization within a fixed time frame.
Most contracting parties have kept agriculture out of their tariff
liberalization commitments. A key question therefore is: should agriculture
receive dispensation given the sector’s important contribution to South
Asia’s economic structure? An enhanced multi-household framework
within a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach
was used to assess the impacts on trade flows, government fiscal
revenues and income distribution among households in countries that are
contracting parties to SAFTA, assuming full trade liberalization and trade
liberalization with the protection of the agricultural sector. The results
indicate that, although both policies would facilitate economic growth and
lead to a reduction in income disparity among household groups in all
South Asian countries, the overall welfare gains would be greater under
full trade liberalization. Hence, the removal of agricultural sector tariffs
should be an important consideration in future SAFTA discussions; such
a step would be a principal means for strengthening intraregional trade.
In a recent paper Schenker and Stephan (2014) have shown that adaptation funding in the range as envisaged in international climate policy negotiations can be Pareto-improving. Not only will the funded developing world, which does not own sufficient resources for adapting optimally, profit from receiving adaptation funding. Terms-of-trade improvements dominate the transfer costs and hence lead to welfare gains in almost any developed region except of North America. However, funding of adaptation has a public good character. It improves the production technology, reduces the production prices and improves terms-of-trade for all net-importers of vulnerable goods. Having a simple analytical model and a numerical model at hand, we show that despite its public good character Nash equilibria exist which include positive amounts of North- South adaptation funding. However, the resulting transfers are much small-er than the aspired amount of international climate finance
Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO 2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.
The current methodological approach for developing sustainable biofuel processes and supply chains is flawed. Life cycle principles are often retrospectively incorporated in the design phase resulting in incremental environmental improvement rather than selection of fuel pathways that minimize environmental impacts across the life cycle. Further, designing sustainable biofuel supply chains requires joint consideration of economic, environmental, and social factors that span multiple spatial and temporal scales. However, traditional life cycle assessment (LCA) ignores economic aspects and the role of ecological goods and services in supply chains, and hence is limited in its ability for guiding decision-making among alternatives—often resulting in sub-optimal solutions. Simultaneously incorporating economic and environment objectives in the design and optimization of emerging biofuel supply chains requires a radical new paradigm. This work discusses key research opportunities and challenges in the design of emerging biofuel supply chains and provides a high-level overview of the current " state of the art " in environmental sustainability assessment of biofuel production. Additionally, a bibliometric analysis of over 20,000 biofuel research articles from 2000-to-present is performed to identify active topical areas of research in the biofuel literature, quantify the relative strength of connections between various biofuels research domains, and determine any potential research gaps.
We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence-infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence–low infectiousness event and a low virulence–high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.
Etude réalisée pour le compte de l’ADEME par l’INRA (contrat 10-60-C0039)
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