Svalbard: The Importance of Sea-ice and Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

The role of sea-ice for the local climate in the Svalbard region is investigated using observed temperature records from Arctic climate stations and gridded sea-ice data. The coupling between sea-ice and sea level pressure as well as 2-meter temperature is also examined. The quality of the sea-ice product from the HadISST1.1 project is evaluated in relation with variations in the sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature fields, and climate station temperatures from the Arctic. Furthermore, the gridded sea- ice analysis is compared with the 1990's climate described by 3 atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models. There is a close connection between the sea-ice extent and the local climate in the vicinity of Svalbard. The land temperature is sensitive to the location of the ice-edge. The good fit between the sea-ice and other climate variables since 1950 indicates that the sea-ice product is accurate for this recent period. But there are indications of severe degradation of the sea-ice data quality prior to the 1950s. A comparison between 3 climate models shows that there are important differences in their description of the Arctic climate. Much of these differences can be explained in terms of the different descriptions of the sea-ice extent. The sea-ice in the HadCM3 scenario is subject to a substantial retreat in the Barents Sea, whereas there is no melting in the same region in the NCAR-CSM model.