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Negawatts
Abstract
Efficient use of electricity is undergoing 12 main transitions — in concept, content, scope, technology, implementation, regulation and market role — that make achievable savings far larger and cheaper than previously supposed. For example, large electrical savings are often turning out to cost less than small savings. Eight powerful classes of improvements can continue to keep end-use efficiency generally the least-cost resource. However, efficiency efforts have lately been diverted by a retail-wheeling myth which, if true, would only strengthen the business case for making very efficient use of electricity a core competitive strategy — with or without the rapidly approaching and radical decentralization of the electricity system.
... Energy security focuses on the consistency of supply, this can be viewed as either a technical problem, or one of politics, given the fact that primary fuels are supplied in an international market. Energy security may also be considered within the concept of energy efficiency's contribution to the reduction of the demand side of the equation, a concept sometimes presented as "negawatts" (Lovins, 1996). Energy security is perhaps the least tangible aspect of the "trilemma" for those concerned with the retrofitting of social housing. ...
Purpose
The Retrofit State of the Nation Survey has tracked the perceptions of social housing sector professionals’ views of retrofit since 2010. It has taken the form of three surveys conducted in 2010, 2013 and 2015. Here, the authors bring together the three surveys to specifically address the adoption and perceived effectiveness of retrofit technology in social housing projects. The purpose of this paper is to identify the changing perceptions of social housing professionals over a period of significant policy change within in the sector.
Design/methodology/approach
The research takes the form of a cross-sectional attitudinal, self-completion survey, covering sections considering the adoption levels and perceived effectiveness of different retrofit technologies. The target sample was medium to larger scale registered social housing providers. The surveys were conducted in 2010, 2013 and 2015.
Findings
In terms of effectiveness, the reliance on tried and tested technologies is apparent. Emerging or more complex technologies have declined in perceived effectiveness over the period. It is clear that social housing has adopted a wide range of technologies, and the larger providers, with whom this survey is undertaken, potentially represent a significant pool of UK retrofit experience.
Originality/value
The survey provides a record of the changing attitudes of social housing providers to specific technologies over the period of 2010-2015, which has seen significant changes in the energy and social housing policy. The findings show the link between policy instruments and adoption, with policy instruments mapping to adoption in the sector. Perceived effectiveness reflects a preference for more established technologies, an issue that is highlighted in the recent Bonfield Review.
... The main argument is that firms are not always operating efficiently and that "the right kind" of environmental regulation induces innovation processes that lead firms to recognize and correct these inefficiencies. Similar arguments are found in the energy policy literature relying on so-called bottom-up models (see chapter 3); the energy system is not optimized and it is therefore possible to save both carbon and money at the same time (e.g., Lovins, 1996). Although there do exist case studies, which ex post show some evidence of cost savings (e.g., Porter and Van der Linde, 1995;Söderholm, 2007) the bulk of the empirical evidence suggest that the net costs are positive (Palmer et al., 1995;Morgenstern et al., 1999). ...
... Quantifying the energy saved in a building that is specifically due to energy efficiency interventions, and hence to estimate equivalent 'negawatts' generated remains challenging [5,6]. First, while much of the policy on energy efficiency is focussed on the thermal performance of the building shell and heating system efficiency (for example, as mandated by building codes), categorising dwelling energy performance typically is based on annual consumption. ...
Improved methods for quantifying energy savings in buildings need to be supported by empirical measures rather than modeled estimates of future annual energy demand. This paper uses power temperature gradient (PTG, W/K), or the slope of power demand in response to changes in external air temperature; first, to categorise dwelling energy performance from daily energy data (when 0-15 °C outside); second, to investigate variations in 24-h profiles of delivered power. Estimates of PTG were obtained from 567 UK dwellings with 118,000 days of gas and electricity data. From a multivariable regression model, PTG was predicted by dwelling characteristics (number of bedrooms, number of floors, dwelling type, and dwelling age category (all p < 0.001)) but not by number of occupants. When dwellings were grouped into quintiles of PTG, mean PTG had threefold increase from the first to fifth quintile (188 to 563 W/K, respectively). This was reflected in 24-h profiles of delivered power (30 min intervals): at 0 °C, each 100 W/K decline in PTG corresponded to ∼2.5 kW decline in mean morning and evening peak power. Using PTG to estimate reductions in peak power as equivalent ‘negawatts’ reframes potential benefits of energy efficiency retrofits and for grid resilience.
... Energy security focuses on the consistency of supply, this can be viewed as either a technical problem, or one of politics, given the fact that primary fuels are supplied in an international market. Energy security may also be considered within the concept of energy efficiency's contribution to the reduction of the demand side of the equation, a concept sometimes presented as "negawatts" (Lovins, 1996). Energy security is perhaps the least tangible aspect of the "trilemma" for those concerned with the retrofitting of social housing. ...
Purpose
The study was designed to assess the knowledge, adoption and perceived effectiveness of sustainable retrofit technologies within the UK social housing sector.
Design/methodology/approach
The study was undertaken using a structured questionnaire that was completed by 130 providers of social housing.
Findings
The study showed that social housing providers were evenly split in their reliance on internal or external information for sustainable retrofit knowledge. In terms of adoption identified that this was strongly driven by government‐funded programmes, leading to widespread adoption of low technology solutions. The respondents identified that many leading edge technologies were perceived to be less effective.
Research limitations/implications
The study represents a snap‐shot of adoption and effectiveness issues, therefore does not show the trajectory of adoption which should be addressed in a follow‐up study.
Practical implications
The social housing sector has been viewed as a market maker for some of the newer technologies. It indicates that some of the newer technologies, such as heat pumps are viewed as less effective than more established technologies.
Social implications
The study has implications for the adoption of technology to address fuel poverty and climate change, as well as informing future policy such as Green Deal.
Originality/value
The study includes 130 responses from the social housing stock and gives a perspective of current views on adoption and effectiveness of retrofit technologies within the social housing sector. This is useful for both other social housing providers and policy makers.
... This can lead to a significant indirect firm benefit in terms of increased productivity. DeCanio (1993) and Lovins (1996) present similar arguments. Based on engineering and econometric studies, they argue that significant inefficiencies-particularly in energy usage-exist throughout the economy. ...
Decisions concerning environmental protection hinge on estimates of economic burden. Over the past 30 years, economists have developed and applied various tools to measure this burden. In this chapter, we present a taxonomy of costs along with methods for measuring those costs. At the broadest level, we distinguish between partial and general equilibrium costs. Partial equilibrium costs represent the burden directly borne by the regulated entity (firms, households, government), including both pecuniary and nonpecuniary expenses, when prices are held constant. General equilibrium costs reflect the net burden once all good and factor markets have equilibrated. In addition to partial equilibrium costs, these general equilibrium costs include welfare losses or gains in markets with preexisting distortions, welfare losses or gains from rebalancing the government's budget constraint, and welfare gains from the added flexibility of meeting pollution constraints through reductions in the use of higher-priced, pollution-intensive products. In addition to both partial and general equilibrium costs, we also consider the distribution of costs across households, countries, sectors, subnational regions, and generations. Despite improvements in our understanding of cost measurement, we find considerable opportunity for further work and, especially, better application of existing methods.
Economic models assume public utility commissions reform utility business models with revenue decoupling mechanisms primarily to remove the disincentive for demand-side management investment, which is expected to enhance social welfare. This paper tests that widespread assumption. We find some but limited support for commission responsiveness to avoided environmental costs. Instead, we find commission responsiveness to avoided political costs resulting from high prices of residential electricity compared to the regional average and high levels of partisan competition in the state legislature. Beyond questioning the primacy of the public interest rationale for regulation, our results give reason to reevaluate economic models of utility business model reform that do not explicitly consider commission interests in minimizing political risks.
There is broad agreement that the need to decarbonise and make better use of renewable and more intermittent sources of power will require increased flexibility in energy systems. However, organisations involved in the energy sector work with very different interpretations of what this might involve. In describing how the notion of flexibility is reified, commodified, and operationalised in sometimes disparate and sometimes connected ways, we show that matters of time and timing are routinely abstracted from the social practices and forms of provision on which the rhythms of supply and demand depend. We argue that these forms of abstraction have the ironic effect of stabilising interpretations of need and demand, and of limiting rather than enabling the emergence of new practices and patterns of demand alongside, and as part of, a radically decarbonised energy system. One way out of this impasse is to conceptualise flexibility as an emergent outcome of the sequencing and synchronisation of social practices. To do so requires a more integrated and historical account of how supply and demand constitute each other and how both are implicated in the temporal organisation of everyday life. It follows that efforts to promote flexibility in the energy sector need to look beyond systems of provision, price, technology, and demand-side management narrowly defined, and instead focus on the social rhythms and the timing of what people do.
Nowadays the problem of efficient control in energy complexes of industrial enterprises and utilities sector is very important. The article represents the structure of the software and hardware complex for efficient energy consumption control based on the distributed conservation power plant concept. To implement the functions of controlling planning, long-term and short-term forecasting as well as energy consumption control with the use of the data intelligent analysis, a model predictive control module is distinguished within the software and hardware complex. To ensure controllability and observability of the processes, program models of controlled object are applied, which are subject to continuous online updating along with the real controlled object base on the procedure of continuous parameter identification according to the current actual operating data. Furthermore, the problem of optimization of controlling effects according to the technical and economic indicators is solved at each control cycle. The article adduces an example for solving the problem of operating parameters clustering of blast furnace smelting within the effective cluster based on the developed software module. The developed module represents an open software environment for interpretation and execution of the programs source code written in the R programming language.
For millennia, humans relied almost entirely on renewable energy (RE), largely biomass, for their energy needs. Over the past century, fossil fuels (FFs) have not only largely replaced RE, but have enabled a many-fold rise in total energy use. This FF dominance changed the way we think about and accounted for energy use. If (as at present) the world essentially continues to ignore climate change, eventual resource depletion will force conversion to RE and, perhaps, nuclear energy will once again have to provide most of the world's energy use. However, the change is more likely to come about because of the urgent need for climate change mitigation. At present, primary RE electricity accounting is done by calculating the FF energy that would be needed to produce it. But as FFs disappear, this approach makes less sense. Instead, a new approach to energy accounting will be needed, one that allows for the intermittent nature of the two most abundant RE sources, wind and solar power. Surplus intermittent RE might be converted to H2, further complicating energy accounting. An additional complication will be the treatment of energy reductions, especially from passive solar energy, likely to be more important in the coming decades. This paper is a review of the evidence to try to determine the best approach to future energy accounting.
Most economic theorists assume that energy efficiency—the biggest global provider of energy services—is a limited and dwindling resource whose price- and policy-driven adoption will inevitably deplete its potential and raise its cost. Influenced by that theoretical construct, most traditional analysts and deployers of energy efficiency see and exploit only a modest fraction of the worthwhile efficiency resource, saving less and paying more than they should. Yet empirically, modern energy efficiency is, and shows every sign of durably remaining, an expanding-quantity, declining-cost resource. Its adoption is constrained by major but correctable market failures and increasingly motivated by positive externalities. Most importantly, in both newbuild and retrofit applications, its quantity is severalfold larger and its cost lower than most in the energy and climate communities realize. The efficiency resource far exceeds the sum of savings by individual technologies because artfully choosing, combining, sequencing, and timing fewer and simpler technologies can save more energy at lower cost than deploying more and fancier but dis-integrated and randomly timed technologies. Such 'integrative design' is not yet widely known or applied, and can seem difficult because it is simple, but is well proven, rapidly evolving, and gradually spreading. Yet the same economic models that could not predict the renewable energy revolution also ignore integrative design and hence cannot recognize most of the efficiency resource or reserves. This analytic gap makes climate-change mitigation look harder and costlier than it really is, diverting attention and investment to inferior options. With energy efficiency as its cornerstone and needing its pace redoubled, climate protection depends critically on seeing and deploying the entire efficiency resource. This requires focusing less on individual technologies than on whole systems (buildings, factories, vehicles, and the larger systems embedding them), and replacing theoretical assumptions about efficiency's diminishing returns with practitioners' empirical evidence of expanding returns.
In this chapter we argue for two linked theses. The first thesis is that increasing energy efficiency has been a major — perhaps the major — driver of economic growth since the industrial revolution. In fact, ‘technological progress’ as normally construed by economists appears to be primarily due to increasing energy-conversion efficiency, notwithstanding contributions from information technology in recent decades. The second, related thesis is that, while reduced carbon dioxide emissions are essential for long-term global sustainability, the usual policy recommendation of most economists and many ‘greens’, namely to increase the cost of energy by introducing a carbon tax, would be ill-advised. Such a policy might have the beneficial effect of reducing government budgetary deficits. But it would have an adverse impact on economic growth, at least in the industrial world.
Additive manufacturing (AM) technology is capable of building up component geometry in a layer-by-layer process, entirely without tools, molds, or dies. One advantage of the approach is that it is capable of efficiently creating complex product geometry. Using experimental data collected during the manufacture of a titanium test part on a variant of AM technology, electron beam melting (EBM), this research studies the effect of a variation in product shape complexity on process energy consumption. This is done by applying a computationally quantifiable convexity-based characteristic associated with shape complexity to the test part and correlating this quantity with per-layer process energy consumption on the EBM system. Only a weak correlation is found between the complexity metric and energy consumption (ρ = .35), suggesting that process energy consumption is indeed not driven by shape complexity. This result is discussed in the context of the energy consumption of computer-controlled machining technology, which forms an important substitute to EBM. This article further discusses the impact of available additional shape complexity at the manufacturing process level on the incentives toward minimization of energy inputs, additional benefits arising later within the product's life cycle, and its implications for value creation possibilities.
This paper investigates problem areas related to energy efficiency implementation in Swedish multifamily buildings. The paper first presents a generic list of (theoretical) problem areas identified through a literature survey. Using a qualitative approach, the paper also investigates if the problem areas identified in the literature also have an impact on the Swedish building sector. Results from the interview study reveal a strong coherence between problem areas in the literature and those expressed by the interviewees. However, this paper identifies seven novel challenges that cannot be derived from the list of barriers in the literature. Moreover, results reveal that as many as 12 problem areas have their origin in national factors such as agreement structures, incentive schemes, and cost calculation methods.
Estimates of the relative contribution of population size and economic growth to global carbon emissions out to 2100 have been made for the industrialised 'North' and populous 'South' of the planet. This was achieved by decomposition of the terms in the 'sustainability' (or IPAT) equation. Historic data, alongside future IPCC emission scenarios, were used to analyse likely changes in CO<sub align="right<SMALL">2</sub> emissions over time. Economic wealth was found to be the most significant driver of such emissions in the industrialised world during the 21st Century. In the South, regional population and economic growth are each likely to play a significant role in affecting future levels of year-on-year carbon emissions. Nevertheless, the cumulative build-up of atmospheric CO<sub align="right"> 2 </sub> concentrations is largely a consequence of historic emissions released by the North since the start of its 'industrial revolution' around 1850.
The supply chains found in modern manufacturing are often complex and long. The resulting opacity poses a significant barrier to the measurement and minimization of energy consumption and therefore to the implementation of sustainable manufacturing. The current article investigates whether the adoption of additive manufacturing (AM) technology can be used to reach transparency in terms of energy and financial inputs to manufacturing operations.
AM refers to the use of a group of electricity-driven technologies capable of combining materials to manufacture geometrically complex products in a single digitally controlled process step, entirely without molds, dies, or other tooling. The single-step nature affords full measurability with respect to process energy inputs and production costs. However, the parallel character of AM (allowing the contemporaneous production of multiple parts) poses previously unconsidered problems in the estimation of manufacturing resource consumption.
This research discusses the implementation of a tool for the estimation of process energy flows and costs occurring in the AM technology variant direct metal laser sintering. It is demonstrated that accurate predictions can be made for the production of a basket of sample parts. Further, it is shown that, unlike conventional processes, the quantity and variety of parts demanded and the resulting ability to fully utilize the available machine capacity have an impact on process efficiency. It is also demonstrated that cost minimization in additive manufacturing may lead to the minimization of process energy consumption, thereby motivating sustainability improvements.
Several methodologies exist for evaluating the economic potential of renewable energy sources. These methodologies either cannot capture how this economic potential depends on its embedding in the whole energy mix, or provide a single cost-optimal energy mix, which is not flexible enough for building consensus among the relevant stakeholders. This article addresses these two limitations and introduces a novel methodology EXPANSE (EXploration of PAtterns in Near-optimal energy ScEnarios) for evaluating the economic potential of renewable energy sources from an energy mix perspective. This methodology is based on generation of cost-optimal and multiple near-optimal energy mixes. These mixes show the maximum, technically feasible, cost-effective potential of a renewable energy source under consideration and how this potential depends on the other supply alternatives and energy savings in an energy mix. The methodology is illustrated with the example of the renewable energy use for heat supply in a Swiss region. The example shows that even a particular renewable energy source is costlier than the currently deployed alternatives such as oil, its economic potential in an energy mix can be as high as its full exploitable (theoretical) potential, when some deviation is allowed from the cost-optimal energy mix. However, the full economic potential of all renewable energy sources cannot be utilized simultaneously. The full deployment of the economic potential of one renewable energy source decreases the economic potential of others. EXPANSE provides basis for analyzing such interlinkages.
Energy markets in Latin America and worldwide are being restructured from monopolies, either state-owned or privately owned strictly regulated, to be more openly competitive and incorporate more participation from the private sector. Thus, the schemes that were formerly developed to foster end use energy efficiency are no longer applicable because they were based on mandatory regulations made with political decisions, without sufficiently considering economic feasibility. A consensus exists that the only way energy efficiency could survive in this new paradigm is by being market oriented, and giving better services and additional options to users. However, there is very little information on what end users prefer, and which options would most satisfy customers.
Using Colombia as a case study, this research determines and categorizes the energy efficiency business options for large energy end users that can freely participate in the competitive energy market. The energy efficiency market is understood as a market of services aiming to increase efficiency in energy use. These services can be grouped into seven business options.
A survey, following the descriptive method, was sent to energy end users in order to determine their preferences for specific energy efficiency business options, as well as the decision-making criteria taken into account for such options. These data were categorized in ten industry groups.
As a conclusion, the energy efficiency providers should adapt not only to the economic activity or processes of each customer, but also to the potential business options. It was also found that not all industries consider performance contracting as their most preferred options; as a matter of fact, some industries show much higher preference for conventional business options. Among end users, the divergence in option preferences contrasted with the convergence in decision-making criteria. The decision-making criterion cost-benefit ratio overwhelms all other criteria. End users appear to chose a specific option mostly for better economic returns, giving low consideration to other criteria.
This paper addresses the possibility that improvements in energy and resource efficiency, together with a move towards the service economy, could help to stimulate the more profound social changes needed for sustainable development. The vision of resource efficiency improvements proposed in Factor Four and Natural Capitalism is discussed. It is argued that the key novel ingredient is the idea of moving towards a service economy, based upon the provision and sale of services, such as thermal comfort instead of energy, domestic services instead of appliances, and information services instead of printed matter. It is argued that this could lead to new relations between consumers and suppliers, a move towards sufficiency as well as efficiency, and could contribute significantly to moves towards more environmentally sustainable development.
Municipal solid waste (MSW) reflects the culture that produces it and affects the health of the people and the environment surrounding it. Globally, people are discarding growing quantities of waste, and its composition is more complex than ever before, as plastic and electronic consumer products diffuse. Concurrently, the world is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate. These trends pose a challenge to cities, which are charged with managing waste in a socially and environmentally acceptable manner. Effective waste management strategies depend on local waste characteristics, which vary with cultural, climatic, and socioeconomic variables, and institutional capacity. Globally, waste governance is becoming regionalized and formalized. In industrialized nations, where citizens produce far more waste than do other citizens, waste tends to be managed formally at a municipal or regional scale. In less-industrialized nations, where citizens produce less waste, which is mostly biogenic, a combination of formal and ...
Mitigating climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing humankind. The building sector of a developing country requires about one fourth of that countrys energy demand. Reducing this demand, and thus abating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is often imperative, but also problematic since the level of energy efficiency in the building stock is considerably low. Policy makers therefore ask themselves how improvements in energy efficiency can be achieved. One part of the answer is the availability of energy-efficient building codes, which require improved energy-efficient technologies. This book develops a model about how the energy efficiency required by building codes evolves. It shows that the evolution of energy efficiency results from complex interactions among agents in the residential building sector. How can policy makers influence this system to enhance energy efficiency? What reductions of GHG emissions can be achieved? Using a case study design, the book elaborates a dynamic model of the Swiss residential built environment that explains the evolution of energy efficiency in the Swiss building stock over four decades. This model then enables one to estimate possible reductions of GHG emissions in the future.
This paper explores the factors affecting the use of alternative energy technologies (AETs) in buildings through the eyes of building project stakeholders. While there are many published lists of incentives and restrictions to using these technologies there are few reports of their impact in practical contexts. The paper reports on the results of a qualitative study of building project stakeholders in the UK—their experience of AETs, the factors that influence assessments and their views on how to improve the chances of using AETs in future projects. The large amount of variation in the importance of drivers and barriers to using AETs between projects is revealed. Despite this variation the emphasis for assessment methods is on financial concerns, largely ignoring more qualitative concerns. This lack of suitable assessment methodologies along with a lack of education, motivation and case-study information in the building industry are restricting the use of AETs in UK building projects.
Conventional energy strategy defines an energy system vision (the goal), energy scenarios with technical choices and an implementation mechanism (such as economic incentives). Due to the lead of a generic vision, when applied in a specific regional context, such a strategy can deviate from the optimal one with, for instance, the lowest environmental impacts. This paper proposes an approach for developing energy strategies by simultaneously, rather than sequentially, combining multiple energy system visions and technically feasible, cost-effective energy scenarios that meet environmental constraints at a given place. The approach is illustrated by developing a residential heat supply strategy for a Swiss region. In the analyzed case, urban municipalities should focus on reducing heat demand, and rural municipalities should focus on harvesting local energy sources, primarily wood. Solar thermal units are cost-competitive in all municipalities, and their deployment should be fostered by information campaigns. Heat pumps and building refurbishment are not competitive; thus, economic incentives are essential, especially for urban municipalities. In rural municipalities, wood is cost-competitive, and community-based initiatives are likely to be most successful. Thus, the paper shows that energy strategies should be spatially differentiated. The suggested approach can be transferred to other regions and spatial scales.
a b s t r a c t There are currently two main drivers for the consideration of ground source energy systems in the built environment in the UK. Firstly, building occupiers and owners are becoming increasingly concerned at rising energy prices whilst building designers are also required to reduce, due to European and national and local legislation, the operational CO 2 emissions from new and existing buildings. This paper considers the application of Bivalent (dual fuel) ground source heat pump heating and cooling systems as a way to reduce the installation costs whilst also providing considerable economic and environmental savings. A case study building is used to demonstrate the importance of optimising ground loop heat exchanger length, considering differing future energy prices and the chosen appraisal period. An incremental approach is used to consider the relative benefits of increasing the size of the GSHP. Designers can also be misled by the assumption that by sizing a GSHP system to just meet the legislative targets the most economically sized system will be installed. The optimum system shows a >60% reduction in the capital cost vs. a peak sized GSHP system whilst still providing >70% of the respective economic savings and CO 2 reduction.
Economy and the EnvironmentGreening Business?Meet Joe Blaugh
A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years.
The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including
renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about
each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are
geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of
hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics,
as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty
about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels
and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available
now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of
100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and
it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been
written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
Overall, the United States now uses 47% less energy per unit of economic output than it did 30 years ago, cutting today's energy costs by a billion dollars a day - like a huge universal tax cut that also cuts the federal deficit. Far from dampening global development, lower energy bills accelerate it.Andthere's plentymorevalue to capture. The waste heat thrown away by U.S. power stations - a fifth more energy than Japan uses for everything - could be lucratively recovered and reused if "combined-heatand- power" were encouraged as it is in Europe. Converting coal at the power plant into incandescent light in the room is only 3% efficient. And around 20 huge power plants spew out CO2 just to run U.S. equipment that is turned off (Lovins, 2005). Why do such inefficiencies continue? Many economists, policy analysts, and politicians believe that the country has already captured its energy efficiency potential, and that (as a result) not much promise is left. For example, in their comprehensive assessment of 20 years of industrial energy efficiency projects, Anna Shipley and R. Neal Elliot (2006) conclude that "a recurring theme offered by those opposed to the funding of industrial energy efficiency efforts has been that companies have already realized all the cost-effective industrial energy efficiency opportunities that exist." Richard N. Cooper (2005) notes that "there are many attractive ideas out there [for addressing energy challenges]," including energy efficiency practices and small-scale renewable energy systems like wind turbines. "But when one looks quantitatively at the possibilities for mobilizing them, it is clear that many can play only a niche role" (p. 271). Paul Joskow (1995) argues that "estimates of un-tapped economical energy-efficiency opportunities are nothing more than fantasy" (p. 531).
Increasing energy efficiency has for a long time been identified as an important means of mitigating climate change. However,
the full potential for technical energy efficiency has seldom been fully exploited. The traditional approach in energy systems
analysis and policy is still largely supply-orientated, i.e. focusing on the management of energy conversion, production and
distribution, and final use of energy in the form of energy carriers. This paper contributes to previous discussions on how
to highlight and explore the user side in the analysis of energy systems in an efficiency context. The energy usage systems
approach, including end-use technologies and the production of service demanded by a human activity system, is used to promote
a dynamic bottom-up perspective on energy. In determining the possible potential for change by increasing energy efficiency,
the demand for energy should not be considered synonymous with the demand for neither energy carriers, nor the measurable
service volumes (such as kilometres travelled, square metre conditioned space, etc.), without considering the sociocultural
context in which the service is being used or called upon. In summary, the predominant paradigm dealing with the energy system
as a technical system managing resources and providing energy carriers should thus be complemented with the view of a socio-technical
system facilitating and/or managing the services.
KeywordsEnergy system–Efficiency–Energy services
As the economic costs of energy and the negative externalities associated with the combustion of fossil fuels threaten the economic viability of greenhouses in northern climates there is a renewed interest in the use of waste heat. This paper presents a technical and economic methodology to determine the viability of establishing waste heat greenhouses using the waste heat from industrial processes in northern climates. A case study is presented of an exchange between a tomato greenhouse and a flat glass manufacturing plant, which found the waste heat system is significantly more economic to operate than a purely natural gas system.
Viewing electric power distribution systems as complex engineering systems whose states and inputs are defined by both technical and non-technical components of the system could help us understand challenges and lead to possible innovative solutions. In this setup, regulatory incentives, pricing, demand, and technological innovation are all endogenous feed-forward and/or feedback signals to the existing physical network and shape its evolution in both the short and long terms. We suggest that it is, indeed, possible to design technical, economic, and regulatory feed-forward and feedback signals keeping in mind the desired performance of the system. A particularly unique challenge is to enhance and operate the existing systems by incorporating distributed technologies (distributed generation or DG, active demand response, controllable wires) whose added value comes from just-in-time and right-location adjustments to the changing conditions. One way of interpreting the value of technologies of this type is to understand that they provide flexible and efficient responses by the end-user (DG and demand), therefore reducing the need for capacity reserve at the system level. Technical implementations and regulatory rules are not in place today to support systematic penetration of these technologies into the existing distribution systems. In this paper we stress the critical role of future load serving entities (LSEs) as aggregators and catalysts of customer choice at the value as one possible way forward. The LSEs would, through systematic protocols between themselves and the wholesale markets, on one side, and the customers whom they serve, on the other side, effectively implement incentives to induce near-optimal distribution system performance over long time horizons by investing in near-optimal technologies. These incentives must capture and compare both cumulative effects of real time decisions and the effects of longer-term investment decisions on near-optimal industry architecture. A non-traditional cost–benefit analysis which draws on temporal and spatial economies of scope is critical for ensuring penetration of what might be viewed as a rather costly disruptive technology. To illustrate the relevance of such analysis on incentives design, we provide numerical examples showing the objectives of the price-responsive demand and the objectives of the evolving distribution (local wire) companies under several regulatory rules.
We analyze determinants of technology diffusion in the European electric utility sector during the period 1950–1992. Structural, economic, technological, and institutional features were introduced into a hazard model. Kaplan-Meier functions were used for non-parametric estimations.
Liberalisation of energy markets may affect the prospects for energy efficiency in a variety of ways. Downward pressure on prices will reduce incentives for efficiency and the end of a supply monopoly makes more difficult mandating demand side management programmes. On the other hand, the removal of price controls could end some regulatory disincentives, and liberalisation enables suppliers to market energy efficiency bundled with energy units. The overall effects of liberalisation for energy efficiency are therefore complex. This paper focuses on the effects of liberalisation on those characteristics of energy markets which underpin long-term energy inefficiency. These barriers to energy efficiency have been shown to arise from fundamental features of traditional utility markets — notably centralisation, commoditisation and the complexity of demand side investment. The extent to which these will be altered in liberalised markets in the UK is considered. It is concluded that some important market imperfections are not addressed by competition in the supply of energy commodities. However, more fundamental changes may in the longer term encourage more differentiation in supply markets, in which there could be higher priority for energy efficiency. The policy measures which might encourage the process are discussed.
The most important moment in product development is when demands and specifications are decided for the product that is being planned. The specification defines the goal for the product development process. It is a very important steering opportunity for the continuing work and for environmentally driven demands that are to be addressed in the product development phase. The designers are said to have the key to sustainable product development through EcoDesign. Many tools have been developed in order to help them to achieve this objective. However, most tools are seldom used primarily because of a lack of sustainability oriented requirements in specifications for products. If there is no demand for improved environmental performance, then there is no need for EcoDesign tools. The lack of market demand for environmentally improved products is therefore, a crucial factor. In other words: It makes no sense to grab a screwdriver from your toolbox if you have a nail in your hand. On the other hand if you have a hammer in your hand you tend to see everything as nails! The hypothesis of this paper is that there is a strong need for a tool to facilitate the integration of reasonable environmental demands into the product development process. The presented tool, “The Ten Golden Rules,” can be helpful in this effort. A helpful tool must be well adapted to the task and therefore it is important that the individual product developer/designer can develop personal versions from the generic guidelines. The Ten Golden Rules provide such a possibility. They provide a common foundation, for all in the team, which can be used as a base and guidelines for development of situation specific product-design challenges.
The life of a product begins with the initial product design concepts; the costs and potential impacts of a product are heavily influenced by the final design, the production processes, the economic and environmental costs of all raw materials. Additionally, both of these factors are very much affected by how the products are managed during and after consumer usage. Thus, there is an urgent need for a tool to facilitate the integration and assessment of environmental and economic demands into the product planning and development processes. The introduction of environmental accounting based on emergy as a tool to assist in product design is proposed. This complementary tool may be inserted into the conventional design methodology to facilitate in the selection of materials and processes as well as in the actual design of the products. To illustrate the application of the proposed method for material selection, PET (polyethylene terephthalate) bottles and aluminum cans for beverage packaging are compared. Despite the exceptional condition of aluminum recycling in Brazil, results show that the best option for beverage packages is the PET bottles.
Eco-labeling is a promising market-based approach for improving the environmental performance of products through consumer choice. While eco-labeling itself is not new, eco-labeling to promote energy efficiency or sustainability is a more recent phenomenon. Five such energy-labeling programs in the US are evaluated: Green Seal, Scientific Certification Systems, Energy Guide, Energy Star, and Green-e. Of these, the first four certify energy-efficient appliances while the last one certifies renewable electricity. While Energy Guide and Energy Star are government-run programs, the rest are privately administered. Two evaluation criteria were used—consumer response and manufacturer/marketer response. Very few studies have been done on the private programs making comparative analysis more difficult. It was found that government programs, in general, and Energy Star, in particular, were much more successful than the private programs. For appliance energy labeling, the private programs were found to have an almost insignificant effect on the market. Government support proved to be crucial in determining a program's credibility, financial stability, and long-term viability. Further, targeting of specific product categories, legislative mandates, incentives, and partnerships were found to be other important factors for program success. Simple seal-of-approval logos and labels have generally affected consumer behavior more than the complex information-disclosure labels.
The decline in electricity production costs and the movement toward electric utility industry restructuring raise questions about the future of electric utility conservation programs. Estimates of conservation costs in the late 1980s and early 1990s were incomplete and optimistic. Better accounting suggests that conservation costs may not be lower than generation costs — which have fallen dramatically since 1981. This study uses utility plant data reported in annual regulatory filings to estimate marginal production costs since 1980 for nine utilities in California, Massachusetts and New York. The study also examines projected costs of new generating capacity, including environmental externality costs. Comparing conservation costs to generation costs, the study finds that only 12%–37% of conservation potential now appears cost-effective without externality costs. Median estimates of externality costs for combined cycle gas plants make 35%–73% of conservation potential cost-effective. The study demonstrates that, due to lower fuel and plant construction costs, the economics of conservation are much more dependent on the valuation of environmental externalities than they were in 1980.
This paper explores two linked theses related to the role energy in economic development, and potential sources of increased energy efficiency for continued growth with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first thesis is that, while reduced GHG emissions are essential for long-term global sustainability, the usual policy recommendation of increasing energy costs by introducing a carbon tax may be relatively ineffective under current market structures and have an unnecessarily adverse impact on economic growth. Our second thesis is that there exists a practical near-term strategy for reducing GHG emissions while simultaneously encouraging continued technology-driven economic growth. Moreover, this strategy does not require radical new technologies, but rather improved regulation or—more precisely—better deregulation of the electric power sector.In respect to the first of our two theses, this paper addresses a deficiency in neoclassical economic growth theory, in which growth is assumed to be automatic, inevitable and cost-free. We challenge both the assumption that growth will continue in the future at essentially the same rate (“the trend”) as it has in the past, and the corollary that our children's children will inevitably be richer and better able to afford the cost of repairing the environmental damages caused by current generations [[1]Simon et al., The state of humanity. Cambridge MA: Blackwell Publishers Ltd.; 1995].
Global climate change is the focus of climate politics organized across scales by a range of organizations. These organizations represent climate change in ways they hope will make the problem relevant to people and thereby inspire political action. The strategies require a choice of objects to bring climate change home to constituents. Some objects are 'more local' to certain constituencies-that is, they are more meaningful. Greenpeace Canada represents the impact of climate change via the object of the hungry polar bear. The Cities for Climate Protection campaign makes climate change relevant, in part, by its focus on the cost-saving benefits of energy efficiency. The process of localizing climate change constitutes society. I use feminist science studies as a theoretical basis to support my argument that organizations localizing climate change might choose objects that are more accountable to their constitutive effects on societies. I point out potential pitfalls in the choice of the polar bear and energy efficiency, and suggest some possibility in these objects.
The Cities for Climate Protection campaign, an effort to lower greenhouse-gas emissions at the city scale, operates within the neoliberal state. Two features characterize the interaction of the state and the public via this campaign: a lack of public involvement, and the construction of the citizen as a passive consumer. The author emphasizes a tension that exists between two readings of the consumer citizen: the pliable figure who listens to neoliberal bottom-line arguments, and the political economic actor who identifies not with consumerism but with political change. Citizens thus cannot be wholly embodied by constructions such as the consumer, and consumerist activism has potential. Citizens, though often interpellated as consumers, can position themselves as reasoning publics who see climate change, their cities, and themselves in relational perspective. The author enlists Foucauldian and deliberative-democracy theory to explore the making of citizens through the Cities for Climate Protection campaign.
Real-estate publications seem to be drowning in articles on the problems facing the industry in the 1990s. The recession and overbuilt markets have made leading battles fiercer than usual. Rent concessions and tenant improvements are swallowing bigger chunks of project returns. Growing environmental consciousness is also putting pressure on property developers and managers. As one building manager recently said to us, "I pretty much ignored environmental issues, until my tenants started asking me questions about indoor air quality, drinking water quality, and building energy use that I couldn't answer." Cutting a building's energy use is one of the easiest and most effective ways of responding to many of these problems and issues. One developer, for example, renovated a 20-year-old office building in Los Angeles, repositioning it for the Class A market. The developer modernized the lobby, modified the mechanical and lighting systems, upgraded interior and exterior finishes, enhanced the landscaping--all standard measures. He also eliminated the majority of the building's energy use through the use of advanced glazings, efficient lighting, and better though not yet optimal HVAC design. The energy-saving measures will pay for themselves in 5.9 years, and a utility rebate will reduce the payback period to three years. Another office retrofit in California, done as a utility experiment, saved over three-fourths of the electricity, including over 90% of the air-conditioning energy. Such dramatic energy savings are possible even with buildings less than ten years old. Buildings that have already done a lot to save electricity can start all over with a menu of technologies that were not available even three years ago. The Electric Efficiency Revolution As the costliest form of energy, electricity is by far the most lucrative kind to save. Electricity cost U.S. consumers about $170 billion a year, including $100 billion for businesses. Expansions of the electric supply devour about $60 billion of capital per year --the same as total investment in all durable-goods manufacturing industries.
The ultimate goal of demand-side management (DSM) is to stimulate markets for energy efficiency, to transform markets so that utilities can reduce their investments in DSM and have customers pay the costs themselves. This is not to say, however, that utilities will have a limited tenure in DSM, because market transformation, apart from being a new buzz word, is a moving target as technologies and techniques for efficiency improve over time. One of the prime examples of market transformation has taken place in the Canadian motors market in British Columbia, where the crown utility, British Columbia Hydro, has shifted its purchasing decisions from standard- to high- and premium-efficiency motors. By raising customers' awareness of the attractive lifecycle economics of efficient motors and providing an incentive for the purchase of the higher efficiency equipment, the utility has effectively transformed the market. Better still, B.C. Hydro has succeeded in reducing its incentives while maintaining high-efficiency motors sales levels by [open quotes]ramping down[close quotes] the program, using it in other areas and to promote other energy-efficient technologies such as adjustable speed drives, synchronous belts, and efficient gear speed reducers. B.C. Hydro began its initiative to promote high-efficiency motors with one basic goal in mind: to [open quotes]flip the market[close quotes] between the sale of standard- and high-efficiency motors. In 1988 the purchase of a high-efficiency motor was the exception, not the rule. Today it is the rule, and motor vendors have played a key role in this reversal. While they typically stocked standard-efficiency motors just five years ago, their inventory is now almost exclusively made up of high- and premium-efficiency motors.
The demand for electricity seems almost insatiable. But building new power plants is costly, time-consuming and can harm the environment. A promising solution--and one the utilities themselves are pushing--is greater efficiency. Lights and motors are a good place to begin. Advanced technologies offer an opportunity to meet the world's future energy needs while minimizing the environmental impact. Both suppliers and consumers of electricity can benefit from the savings. The biggest savings in electricity can be attained in a few areas: lights, motor systems, and the refrigeration of food and rooms. These technologies are described and their potential for reduction in energy consumption is discussed.
Over the past several years, four of the largest investor-owned California utilities have completed more than 50 evaluation studies designed to measure the energy and demand impacts of their demand-side management (DSM) programs. These four are: Pacific Gas and Electric (PG and E), Southern California Edison (SCE), Southern California Gas (SoCalGas), and San diego Gas and Electric (SDG and E). These studies covered residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural DSM programs and provided a wealth of information on program impacts. The objective of this report is to summarize the results of these DSM evaluation studies in order to describe what DSM has achieved in California, to assess how well these achievements were forecast, and to compare the effectiveness of different types of DSM programs. This report documents the sizable investment made by the California utilities in their 1990--92 DSM programs. Between 1990 and 1992, the four utilities spent $772 million on energy-efficiency/conservation programs. This report also summarizes the realization rates estimated by the 50+ evaluation studies. Realization rates are defined as ex-post net savings estimates divided by ex-ante net savings estimates. Realization rates are summarized for 158 programs and program segments.
The author looks ahead to the next century and suggests that what
this century has been preparing us for is not just a linear view of
progress, but a cyclic view of progress in which we rediscover much
forgotten wisdom. He predicts that in the next century of mechanical
design pressures capital and energy costs, environmental performance,
and operability will rapidly shift designs from active to passive, from
formulaic to uniquely optimized, and from complex to simple. He suggests
that integrated whole-building design yield superior comfort with about
three to thirty times less energy and often with lower capital costs,
but that this poses fundamental challenges to professional education and
practice and to compensation structure. As an example he describes a
house that has been built in Davis, California using some of the novel
design principles mentioned. It was done as part of the Pacific Gas and
Electric ACT<sup>2</sup> experiment
Building Energy Efficiency May von Weizs~,cker
- E U August Us Congress
- A Lovins
- L Lovins
August US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (1992) Building Energy Efficiency May von Weizs~,cker, E U, Lovins, A B and Lovins, L H (1995) Faktor Vier: Doppelter Wohlstand -halbierter Naturverbrauch Droemer Knaur. M~nchen
Technology Atlas series and bimonthly supplementsEfficient use of elec-tricity' Scient
- J Cook
- A P Fickett
- C Gellings
Cook, J (1989) Passive Cooling MIT Press, Cambridge, MA E souI~CE (1992-) Technology Atlas series and bimonthly supplements, Boulder, CO Fickett, A P, Gellings, C W and Lovins A B (1990) 'Efficient use of elec-tricity' Scient([ic American 263 (3) 64-74
Energy-Efficient Buildings: Institutional Barriers and Opportunities Air Conditioning Comfort: Cultural and Behavioral AspectsApples, oranges, and horned toads
- A Lovins
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Lovins, A B (1992a) Energy-Efficient Buildings: Institutional Barriers and Opportunities E SOURCE, Boulder, CO Lovins, A B (1992b) Air Conditioning Comfort: Cultural and Behavioral Aspects E SOURCE, SIP-I, Boulder, CO Lovins, A B (1994a) 'Apples, oranges, and horned toads' Electricity Jour-nal 7 (4) 29-49
The State of the ArtFinancing electric end-use effi-ciency' RMICustomer behavior and information programsRenewables in integrated energy sys-tems' PictureTel address to ANZSES
- A Lovins
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Lovins, A B and Sardinsky, R (1988) The State of the Art: Lighting RMI/CoMPETITEK Lovins, A B and Shepard, M (1989a) 'Financing electric end-use effi-ciency' RMI/CoMPETITEK Lovins, A B and Shepard, M ( t 989bl 'Customer behavior and information programs' RMI/CoMPETITEK Lovins, A B and Yoon, D (1993) "Renewables in integrated energy sys-tems' PictureTel address to ANZSES, Perth, Western Australia, RMI Publication #E94-l 2
A Primer on Sustainable Build-ing RMI BrownSummary of California DSM im-pact evaluation studies' I 1 August report to California DSM Measure-ment Advisory Committee Browning, W D (1992) 'NMB bank headquarters
- In Epri
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and in EPRI, DR Connection, pp 20, November 1994. References Barnett, D L and Browning, W D (1995) A Primer on Sustainable Build-ing RMI Brown, M and Mihlmester, P (1994) 'Summary of California DSM im-pact evaluation studies' I 1 August report to California DSM Measure-ment Advisory Committee Browning, W D (1992) 'NMB bank headquarters' Urban Land 51 (6) 23-25 Buckley, C (1995) 'Factories paid not to take electricity' The Times 8
BC Hydro flips a market' Public Util-ities Fortnightly 20-22 Rate Impacts of Electric Utility DSM Pro-grams ORNL
- Flanigan
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Flanigan, T and Fleming, A (1993) 'BC Hydro flips a market' Public Util-ities Fortnightly 20-22, 34, 1 August Fox, J (1994-95) Personal communications Hirst, E and Hadley, S (1994) Rate Impacts of Electric Utility DSM Pro-grams ORNL/CON-402
If you think education is expensive, try ignorance' address to E SOURCE Corporate Energy Managers' Consortium
- A Lovins
Lovins, A B (1994b) 'If you think education is expensive, try ignorance' address to E SOURCE Corporate Energy Managers' Consortium, 6 June 1994
The negawatt revolution' Across the Board The Con-ference Board
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Lovins, A B (1990) 'The negawatt revolution' Across the Board The Con-ference Board, NY, 18~23 September Negawatts: A B Lovins 343
to be expanded in A B Lovins and A Lehmann's forthcoming 1996 RMI technical publication. 3SA B Lovins's comments of 17 August 1994 to CPUC, at pp. 3~; to FERC
- Yoon
37Lovins and Yoon (1993), to be expanded in A B Lovins and A Lehmann's forthcoming 1996 RMI technical publication. 3SA B Lovins's comments of 17 August 1994 to CPUC, at pp. 3~; to FERC, 24 July 1994 (urging symmetrical treatment for demand-side re-sources);
NMB bank headquarters
- Browning
Factories paid not to take electricity
- Buckley
The negawatt revolution
- Lovins
Renewables in integrated energy systems
- Lovins
Apples, oranges, and horned toads
- Lovins
Greening the Building and the Bottom Line
- Romm