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Investigating the Hispanic/Latino male dropout phenomenon: Using logistic regression and survival analysis
Abstract
This dissertation explored the factors associated with dropping out of middle school and high school among Hispanic/Latino male students. Predictor variables investigated were: age, home language, retention history, SES, program of studies, suspensions, and GPA. Data were from a large urban school district in the state of Florida. A sample of 865 Hispanic/Latino male Latino students in the 8th grade in 1995-96 was followed longitudinally every year to the year 2000-01. Survival analysis and logistic regression were used to examine the data. The research questions were: 1) What is the relation between age, home language, retention history, SES, program of studies, suspensions, and GPA and dropping out of middle and secondary school by Hispanic/Latino males? 2) At what grade levels do the predictor variables begin to affect the male Hispanic/ Latino students' propensity for early school leaving? When are they at greatest risk? Of the predictor variables included in this research, age, retention history, program of studies, suspension, and GPA, were found to be statistically significant in the students' decision to drop out of school. This research also found that approximately 31% of this Hispanic/Latino male sample dropped out prior to completing their high school education during the 5-year span. Investigating the most hazardous time for dropping out of school, results suggested that for these students it is well into their secondary education, very close to when they would actually graduate, during their junior to senior years. It may be the time close to their eighteenth birthday that lets them legally choose to leave school that triggers this hazardous time period.
... The growing literature on early school leaving indicates that school dropouts, compared with their graduated peers, are more frequently associated with long-term unemployment, poverty, bleak health prospects, sustained dependence on public assistance, single parenthood (in females), political and social apathy, and (juvenile) crime (Christenson et al., 2000;Business Council of Australia, 2002b;Rumberger and Lamb, 2003;Vizcain, 2005 and references therein). ...
... < Table 1 As has been noted by Vizcain (2005) relying on such broad-scale data sets has both advantages and disadvantages. While it allows for consistency in patterns across time and space, extrapolating information on early school leaving from national level data sources could also obfuscate trends on a more local level. ...
... Since research indicates (most often by correlations) that grade retention is the worst culprit among all student-related risks factors with regard to early school leaving, it is of primary importance to restrict its use (Dorn, 1996;Entwisle et al., 2005;Vizcain, 2005). As Orthner et al. (2002) have noted, the issue of grade retention versus promotion is heavily charged; it seems neither wise to delay children's entry into high school or transition to a higher grade, nor to advance them without the skills necessary to succeed in later years. ...
This paper reviews the growing literature on early school leaving. We clarify what is at stake with early school leaving, and touch upon underlying problems and methodological issues raised in the literature. The paper investigates the levels, the methods and models with which the topic has been studied, and discusses potential (dis)advantages of each of those. We focus on early school leaving in all its complexity, and on the interplay of relevant (levels of) factors, rather than on just certain factors, typically located in individual students, schools or families. The findings in the literature are discussed and placed into perspective. Finally, a wide set of policy measures are discussed.
... In fact, survival analysis is widely applied in economics but on other topics than in educational outcomes (see review in DesJardins et al., 2006). Few studies on high school dropouts have employed survival analysis for developed countries (Allensworth, 2005;DesJardins et al., 2006;Kalmijn & Kraaykamp, 2003;Vizcain, 2005) and developing countries Paura & Arhipova, 2014;Woldehanna & Hagos, 2015). Kalmijn & Kraaykamp (2003) examine determinants of dropout and downward mobility (i.e. ...
... The study combines many methods (hierarchical generalised linear model combined with instrumental variables, logit, probit, survival analysis), of which survival analysis is used to explore whether the policy impacts the timing of dropping out at the age of 15 to 17. Findings indicate that retention due to the grade promotion raised dropout rate but to a smaller degree than the retention traditionally initiated by teachers, and this adverse effect of the policy was unrelated to the timing of leaving school. Vizcain (2005) inspects which factors associated with high school withdrawal using survival analysis and logistic regression. Data for the study comes from high school male students from Hispanic/Latino over a five-year span in the state of Florida. ...
Vietnam has attained outstanding performance in education during the past two decades. However, inequality in educational opportunities aggravates disparities among children and threaten the improvement of labour productivity. The underlying mechanism for transmitting inequality and role of skills in the process remaining unclear motivates this thesis. It aims to study how skills interact with environmental factors to determine outcomes on education and livelihoods in Vietnam. Firstly, Chapter 1 examines how skills predict dropping out Then Chapter 2 inspects whether full-day schooling reduces educational inequality. Finally, Chapter 3 investigates the relative importance of skills in determining labour market outcomes. To this end, the research applies diversified quantitative approaches using data from the Young Lives in Vietnam. The contributions of the thesis are threefold, namely taking into consideration the non-cognitive skill in the analysis, addressing the interaction between social background and school environment, and the measurement errors accompanied poor proxies for skills in Vietnam. The thesis hints at further levelling educational opportunities of children and enhancement of non-cognitive skills for greater outcomes in life and economic growth
... Eurostat (2022a) states that, in 2022, 23.3% of people aged 25-74 years in the EU had a low level of education, with almost 82% aged 25-54 years having completed at least upper secondary education, compared to 68.4% aged 55-74 years. The literature on early school leaving suggests that school dropout is associated with long-term unemployment, poverty, poor health, dependence on public assistance, single parenthood (for women), political and social disengagement, and juvenile crime (Vizcain 2005;Hayes et al. 2002). Therefore, it is not surprising that school dropout is a significant national problem for both students and society. ...
School dropout is a pressing social problem that stems from systemic inadequacies in the education system and socio-economic background. The aim of this study was to analyze how the travel time and financial difficulties impact school dropout in satellite towns near Bucharest, the capital of Romania. Data on dropout rates in recent years were provided by the Ilfov County General School Inspectorate and were supplemented by 30 semi-structured interviews with the parents, caregivers, or the legal representatives of students who have dropped out of school or are at risk of dropping out. The study’s findings reveal significant correlations between the travel time to school, familial financial situation, and attitudes towards education, impacting dropout rates across various satellite towns. Addressing the challenge of school dropout promises societal improvement and empowers policymakers to enact more inclusive policies benefiting all members of society.
... Rump et al. (2017) find that intrinsic motivation was the strongest significant factor that predicts intention to drop out. Misbehavior in university and delinquent behavior outside of the university are both significantly associated with higher dropout and lower graduation (Fergusson et al., 2003;Vizcain, 2005). Concerning student beliefs, values, and attitudes, a substantial body of research has generally focused on a single indicator: the educational expectations (how far in university a student expects to go). ...
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determinants of university dropout in the first year of bachelor programs at Tunisian universities. We consider 160 higher education institutions with an average of 671 bachelor study programs per year from 2013 to 2018. Using several econometric models (pooled ordinary least square, fixed effect model, and random effect model), we regress student dropout rate on four categories of indicators: student characteristics, and institutional, contextual, and external factors. The estimation results suggest that the institutional characteristics have a significant impact on dropouts. The findings show that student–staff ratio has a positive influence on student dropout. We also find a negative association between staff quality and dropout rate. In addition, the analysis reveals the importance of contextual factors such as university accommodation in helping students to complete university education. Finally, regression also indicates a significant and positive interaction between unemployment rate and the dropout rate.
... Research consistently finds that student engagement (students' active involvement in academic work and the social aspects of university life) predicted early withdrawal from high school (Herbert, Reis, 1999;Entwisle et al. 2004;Appleton et al. 2008). Misbehavior in high school and delinquent behavior outside of high school are both significantly associated with higher dropout and lower graduation (Fergusson et al. 2003;Vizcain, 2005). Concerning student beliefs, values and attitudes, a substantial body of research has generally focused on a single indicator: the educational expectations (how far in school a student expects to go). ...
The relevance of higher education is understood mainly in terms of employability of
graduates by the main stakeholders in the Czech Republic. However, some interpret
relevance in “narrow” terms of directly applicable job-specific skills and knowledge, while
others prefer a “broader” meaning of transferable competence. Neither national policy
nor most of the strategies on the institutional level take a clear stance on which of these
perspectives should be the driving principle of the study programme design. The decision
how to make higher education more relevant to the society is usually left to lower levels –
faculties and departments, and even individual teachers. It seems that the lack of political
steering, combined with a traditional conservatism of academia and somewhat formal
diversification of the whole sector all together contribute to the fact that the higher
education system in the Czech Republic is slow to change and adapt to rapid social and
technological development.
This article highlights the inequality in the Flemish education system, which disproportionately affects youngsters with low socioeconomic status. This inequality is attributed to the human capital approach characterising current educational policies, putting emphasis on educational outcomes. This results in education that homogenises and limits acceptable student behaviour and in which deviations from the norm are met with exclusionary and punitive approaches, consequently pushing vulnerable youngsters with a differing cultural capital out of education. Drawing on the capability approach, this article argues the importance of navigational agency in education, investigating the space students have to enter and exit education, resolving conflicts between education and other social practices, and reforming education by voicing their opinions. By analysing 66 Flemish secondary school policies, it is concluded that young people’s navigational agency is limited in the current educational landscape. Furthermore, most school policies lack inner consistency, highlighting the fact that there is no coherent pedagogical vision within, which raises questions about how thought through these policies really are.
Purpose
This study aims at developing an instrument to measure the latent trait propensity to drop out in face-to-face higher education.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on Tinto's student integration theory, a 27-item scale was created to measure student propensity to drop out of undergraduate programs. Item response theory was used to evaluate the psychometric analysis of the items. Furthermore, different methodologies were used to evaluate and provide evidence for content validity, response process validity, internal structure validity and criterion-related validity.
Findings
With the support of specialists in the construct, the interpretation of the scores for the use of the scale was defined in four levels of propensity: high, moderate, low and very low.
Research limitations/implications
The latent trait propensity to drop out in face-to-face higher education allows the inclusion of new items and aspects in the instrument. Thus, it can be adapted to distance education.
Practical implications
The students' propensity to drop out score can be useful for researchers and administration units in colleges and universities in the planning of permanent institutional actions and programs to take preventive measures.
Social implications
Minimize dropout in order to raise the educational level of the population and make better use of the resources invested in education.
Originality/value
This study points out when, why and how propensity to drop out can be measured and how scores can be interpreted in the context of the problem.
In this article, we interrogate the policy assumptions underlying a significant South Australian public education re-engagement initiative called Flexible Learning Options, formulated within South Australia’s social inclusion policy agenda, beginning in 2006. To this end, we applied Baachi’s ‘What’s the Problem Represented to be?’ policy analysis framework to a historical range of departmental Flexible Learning Options policy documents and evaluations to uncover how Flexible Learning Options (1) understands the problem of early school leaving, (2) defines the notion of being an ‘at risk’ young person and (3) interprets and enacts the intervention process for young people identified as ‘at risk’ of early school leaving. Our policy analysis indicates re-engagement in learning – as measured by improved retention – to be the key Flexible Learning Options policy driver, with schools ‘silently’ positioned as a significant part of the retention in learning problem. The Flexible Learning Options engagement in learning intervention directed at ‘high-risk’ students’ works to remove them from schools into places where personalised support and an alternative curriculum are made available. ‘Lower risk’ students are given a combination of in-school and off-school learning options. Our What’s the Problem Represented to be? analysis also reveals that (1) the notion of ‘risk’ is embodied within the young person and is presented as the predominant cause of early school leaving; (2) how the educational marketplace could work to promote Flexible Learning Options enrolment growth has not been considered; (3) schools are sidelined as first choice engagement options for ‘high-risk’ young people, (4) secondary school redesign and family intervention as alternative reengagement strategies have largely been ignored and (5) through withdrawal from conventional schooling, the access of many Flexible Learning Options to students to an expansive curriculum delivered by teachers within well-resourced school learning architectures has been constrained.
Success in school appears to be related to identification with academics (J. D. Finn, 1989). C. Steele (1992) argued that African Americans' relatively poor academic outcomes are attributable to a system of schooling that causes African Americans to disidentify with academics. Previous studies reported empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis. The goal of this study was to examine data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of students to determine if (a) African American boys remain disidentified through 12th grade, (b) African American girls disidentify, (c) other disadvantaged minority groups (Hispanics) show evidence of disidentification, and (d) disidentification is global across all academic domains or specific to some content areas. In general, African American boys remained disidentified. No other group examined demonstrated significant disidentification. Identification or disidentification did not appear to vary across content areas.
A variety of evidence suggests that students in the United States change schools frequently. But there has been relatively little research that examines the educational consequences of student mobility. This study examined the incidence of student mobility between the eighth and twelfth grades and its effect on high school completion using the National Educational Longitudinal Survey third follow-up data. Three models were tested on two groups of students. For eighth-grade students in 1988, we predicted (1) whether students changed schools or dropped out between the eighth and twelfth grades and (2) high school completion status two years after twelfth grade. For twelfth-grade students in 1992 we predicted high school completion status two years after twelfth grade. The models were developed from a conceptual framework based on theories of dropping out, postsecondary institutional departure, and student transfer adjustment that suggest school mobility may represent a less severe form of educational. disengagement similar to dropping out. The results generally support this idea. That is, measures of social and academic engagement, such as low grades, misbehavior, and high absenteeism, predicted both whether students changed schools or dropped out. The results further indicate that, controlling for other predictors, students who made even one nonpromotional school change between the eighth and twelfth grades were twice as likely to not complete high school as students who did not change schools. Together, the findings suggest that student mobility is both a symptom of disengagement and an important risk factor for high school dropout.
Two studies examined middle school students' achievement values by using peer nomination procedures. Nominations of peers whom participants admired, respected, and wanted to be like were summed to create a values index. Respondents also nominated peers who fit 6 behavioral descriptions including effort versus disengagement and being socially responsible versus deviant. Study 1 participants were African American and Study 2 participants were ethnically diverse. Both studies yielded systematic findings. Girls valued high-achieving female classmates, whereas ethnic minority boys least valued high-achieving male students. White boys, similar to girls, valued high-achieving, same ethnicity classmates. Respondents associated academic disengagement and social deviance with being male, a low achiever, and an ethnic minority. The usefulness of peer nomination procedures as a methodology for studying values and implications for understanding the plight of ethnic minority male adolescents are discussed.
Examined some of the potential differences between siblings of high school dropouts and persisters. Ss were 80 Mexican-American children in Grades 3–5; 40 siblings of drop outs and 40 siblings of persisters. Persisters were defined as students who had already graduated or who had reached the age of 16 and were making satisfactory progress in school. Variables examined included the younger S's expectation of completing high school, ratings of academic self-competence, school attitude, number of absences, and whether retention had occurred. Results indicate that Ss of dropouts reported a lower expectation of completing high school and had more absences than Ss of persisters. Elementary schools should integrate measures of absenteeism and expectancy in their identification of at-risk students. An examination of current school policies is recommended to assure that schools work to establish solid relationships with ethnic minority parents. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Scholars working at the intersection of African-American history and the history of technology are redefining the idea of technology to include the work of the skilled artisan and the ingenuity of the self-taught inventor. Although denied access through most of American history to many new technologies and to the privileged education of the engineer, African-Americans have been engaged with a range of technologies, as makers and as users, since the colonial era. A Hammer in Their Hands (the title comes from the famous song about John Henry, "the steel-driving man" who beat the steam drill) collects newspaper and magazine articles, advertisements for runaway slaves, letters, folklore, excerpts from biography and fiction, legal patents, protest pamphlets, and other primary sources to document the technological achievements of African-Americans. Included in this rich and varied collection are a letter from Cotton Mather describing an early method of smallpox inoculation brought from Africa by a slave; selections from Frederick Douglass's autobiography and Uncle Tom's Cabin; the Confederate Patent Act, which barred slaves from holding patents; articles from 1904 by Booker T. Washington and W. E. B. DuBois, debating the issue of industrial education for African-Americans; a 1924 article from Negro World, "Automobiles and Jim Crow Regulations"; a photograph of an all-black World War II combat squadron; and a 1998 presidential executive order on environmental justice. A Hammer in Their Hands and its companion volume of essays, Technology and the African-American Experience (MIT Press, 2004) will be essential references in an emerging area of study.
After demonstrating the types of problems that arise from using different methods to calculate school dropout rates, Morrow suggests a set of procedures to standardize the process and improve the validity and reliability of data on dropouts.
This article examines the relationship between immigrant generation and high school dropout among Hispanic students. Using the NELS:88 data set, Hispanic eighth grade students were followed for four years to determine if, and when, they dropped out of high school. The findings suggest that, while the odds of early high school dropout are uniformly high among all generations, net of individual and family resources second generation eighth graders are less likely to drop out at any time, and first and second generation sophomores are more likely to complete high school. High educational expectations, family income and past academic performance protect against high school dropout.
Using the most comprehensive data set on school dropouts that we have to date, the High School and Beyond study, Ruth Ekstrom, Margaret Goertz, Judith Pollack, and Donald Rock provide an analysis of the salient characteristics of the dropout population.
One basic problem for both researchers and policymakers is obtaining accurate information about dropouts. In this article, Floyd Hammack examines school district reports on the dropout problem in Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Diego, and Chicago. Citing the great diversity in the processes for the classification of students as dropouts, he raises important concerns about the comparability of dropout rates between districts.
This study compared the adequacy of 5 theories to predict dropping out of high school before the 10th grade. These theories include full mediation by academic achievement and direct effects related to general deviance, deviant affiliation, family socialization, and structural strains. Nested latent variable models were used to test these theories on prospective data from an ethnically diverse urban sample. Poor academic achievement mediated the effect of all independent factors on school dropout, although general deviance, bonding to antisocial peers, and socioeconomic status also retained direct effects on dropping out. Therefore, none of the theories tested was fully adequate to explain the data, although partial support was obtained for each theory. Implications for prevention of early high school dropout are discussed.
The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.
A general theory of domain identification is used to describe achievement barriers still faced by women in advanced quantitative areas and by African Americans in school. The theory assumes that sustained school success requires identification with school and its subdomains; that societal pressures on these groups (e.g., economic disadvantage, gender roles) can frustrate this identification; and that in school domains where these groups are negatively stereotyped, those who have become domain identified face the further barrier of stereotype threat, the threat that others' judgments or their own actions will negatively stereotype them in the domain. Research shows that this threat dramatically depresses the standardized test performance of women and African Americans who are in the academic vanguard of their groups (offering a new interpretation of group differences in standardized test performance), that it causes disidentification with school, and that practices that reduce this threat can reduce these negative effects.
The question investigated was whether enrollment in vocational/business courses has special "holding power" for students or whether personal, social characteristics were more salient in the dropout decision. The data were taken from the first follow-up responses of the High School and Beyond survey. Public school students who had dropped out of school were compared with age mates who had graduated. The two groups were matched on the following variables: reading comprehension, socioeconomic status (SES), gender, geographic region, and community size. Using a path analytic approach with the data, I found that participation in vocational/ business courses does not seem to be related to persistence. The variables that were identified as being most highly associated with dropout status reflected the influence of a student’s social relationships within the school environment. Peer interest, sense of social belonging, and relationships with school staff were differentially linked to school interest for girls and boys. A parallel analysis was performed with a sample of students matched on reading comprehension, SES, gender, and attendance at the same high school. The results observed with that sample were comparable to those of the larger one.
This article examines the relationship between immigrant generation and high school dropout among Hispanic students. Using the NELS:88 data set, Hispanic eighth grade students were followed for four years to determine if, and when, they dropped out of high school. The findings suggest that, while the odds of early high school dropout are uniformly high among all generations, net of individual and family resources second generation eighth graders are less likely to drop out at any time, and first and second generation sophomores are more likely to complete high school. High educational expectations, family income and past academic performance protect against high school dropout.
Over the last 20 years, researchers have focused considerable attention on the economic consequences of divorce. One book, Weitzman's The Divorce Revolution (1985), reports a 73 percent decline in women's standard of living after divorce and a 42 percent increase in men's standard of living. These percentages, based on data from a 1977-1978 Los Angeles sample, are substantially larger than those from other studies. I replicate The Divorce Revolution's analysis and demonstrate that the estimates reported in the book are inaccurate. This reanalysis, which uses the same sample and measures of economic well-being as The Divorce Revolution, produces estimates of a 27 percent decline in women's standard of living and a 10 percent increase in men's standard of living after divorce. I discuss the implications of these results for debates about divorce law reform.
Introduction.- Univariate survival data.- Dependence structures.- Bivariate dependence measures.- Probability aspects of multi-state models.- Statistical inference for multi-state models.- Shared frailty models.- Statistical inference for shared frailty models.- Shared frailty models for recurrent events.- Multivariate frailty models.- Instantaneous and short-term frailty models.- Competing risks models.- Marginal and copula modelling.- Multivariate non-parametric estimates.- Summary.- Mathematical results.- Iterative solutions.- References.- Index.
High dropout rates among students who repeated grades are often cited as evidence that grade retention is harmful. This article uses event history analysis to explore whether and how a grade retention influenced graduation outcomes among one cohort of youths from an urban school system. Repeating a grade from kindergarten to sixth grade was associated with a substantial increase in the odds of dropping out even after controlling for differences in background and postretention grades and attendance. This article explores whether grade retention may influence school dropout because it makes students overage for grade. Students who ended sixth grade overage for grade experienced substantial disengagement during middle school; nearly one quarter dropped out, and those who remained had significant declines in attendance. I find that the impact of being overage for grade during adolescence may explain a large proportion of the higher dropout rates among retained youths.
An important predictor of whether students remain in school or withdraw is their ability to identify with academics. Consistent with Ogbu's (1992) cultural inversion and Steeles (1992) stereotype threat hypotheses, research has shown that Black and Hispanic students tend to demonstrate higher levels of academic disidentification relative to Asian and White students. The present study was conducted to learn whether Black and Hispanic students, when compared to Asian and White students, show further evidence of disidentification from academics when deciding to withdraw from school. Data were collected from 132,903 high school students in Florida, USA. Results from the data analysis are consistent with the disidentification hypothesis. Specifically, both Black and Hispanic students appear to place less importance on academic achievement than do either Asian or White students when considering school withdrawal. Potential limitations of this research and methods for addressing disidentification are discussed.
The impact of high school size on dropout rate was investigated using the school data of the High School and Beyond Study of the National Center of Educational Statistics. Information from 744 public, comprehensive high schools was employed to test a model depicting a direct influence of school size on the diversity of academic offerings and on the school social climate, as well as an indirect effect on dropout rate. The findings indicated that potential links between school size and dropout rate were almost totally attributable to the social climate, particularly those elements dealing with student participation and the severity of the problem environment. These results imply that one outcome of school consolidations which seemingly has been given little attention is that it may increase early school leaving.
Many high ability students from culturally diverse populations exist in large economically deprived urban environments and they are often included in the statistical reports of high school dropouts. A 3-year investigation of the culture of highability, high-achieving students in an urban high school was undertaken by researchers from the National Research Center on the Gifted and Talented. Through ethnographic interviews and case study methods, descriptions emerged of culturally diverse teenagers who achieved in an urban high school. Specific factors that enabled these students to succeed included: the development of a belief in self, supportive adults, interaction with a network of high-achieving peers, extracurricular activities, challenging classes such as honors classes, personal characteristics such as motivation and resilience, and family support. The findings of the study offer educators useful suggestions and strategies for addressing the academic needs of talented youth in an urban setting.
The analysis in this study tests the proposition that middle-class dropouts are more likely to engage in delinquency as a result of dropping out than lower class dropouts. This article also seeks to test social control and strain theory explanations for the observed dropout-delinquency relationships. This is done by examining the intervening processes as specified by, and which are unique to, each theory. Using data from a large-scale nationally representative probability sample, the analysis examines differences in the likelihood of offending based on the reasons for dropping out and across the two social class groups (distinguished in terms of their position relative to the poverty line). Results support the position that dropping out is more likely to be associated with higher levels of involvement in delinquency for middle-class than for lower-class youths. In addition, support for strain theory or social control theory is dependent on the reasons for dropping out of school. Implications of these results are discussed.
This study explores the relationship between supportive communication and school outcomes for lower socioeconomic middle school students identified as “at‐risk”; and students not identified as “at‐risk”; of poor school performance. Results indicate that parents are major sources of social support for both groups of students; however, while parents are the only source of support for at‐risk middle school students, the not‐identified‐at‐risk students also receive support from their teachers and friends. With respect to school outcomes, different types of social support are associated with different outcomes. Also, students not identified as at‐risk appear to benefit more from the social support they receive than students identified as at‐risk. Teachers and other school personnel can use the findings of this investigation to develop intervention strategies that utilize the social support process to affect specific school outcomes for academically at‐risk students as well as for other students.
Good discusses the types of teacher expectation effects evi denced in the classroom. Particular attention is focused on the research that addresses teachers' expectations for and interac tions with individuals believed to be of high or low potential. Good presents a model for use in understanding the dynamics of expectation communication in the classroom and highlights numerous studies relating teacher expectations with student behavior. The differential treatment of students by teachers is described by the author, with special attention given to how teachers express low expectations. The article concludes with a description of future research directions.
The unemployment/crime rate relationship (U-C) has been described recently as “inconsistent,” “insignificant,” and “weak.” Prior assessments of the U-C relationship have used no more than 18 U-C studies, and no more than 7 with 1970s data. In this paper, I review the findings of 63 U-C studies, 40 of which involve data from the 1970s when unemployment rose dramatically. My analysis shows the conditional nature of the U-C relationship. Property crimes, 1970s data, and sub-national levels of aggregation produce consistently positive and frequently significant U-C results. I discuss the implications of these results and argue that it is premature to abandon “this now well-plowed terrain” and suggest potentially fruitful paths for future studies of the U-C relationship.
Multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis can be used to investigate the repeated occurrence of a single event, or the sequential occurrence of disparate events, including: students’ and teachers’ entries into, and exits from, school; childrens’ progress through stages of cognitive reasoning; disturbed adolescents’ repeated suicide attempts; and so forth. In this article, we introduce and illustrate the method using longitudinal data on exit from, and reentry into, the teaching profession. The advantages of the approach include: (a) applicability to many educational problems; (b) easy inclusion of time-invariant and time-varying predictors; (c) minimal assumptions—no proportional-hazards assumption is invoked and so the effects of predictors can vary over time within, and across, spells; and (d) all statistical models can be fit with a standard logistic regression package.
Although school dropout remains an Important policy issue and has generated considerable research, little of this research has examined dropout as a measure of school performance. Even less attention has been paid to student turnover, another, related measure of hovv well schools are keeping students enrolled. study examined the distributions of both dropout and turnover rates among a large sample of U.S. high schools and tested a series of models to explain these differences, using data from the NELS High School Effectiveness Study and nonlinear multilevel modeling. The results revealed substantial variability in school dropout and turnover rates among the high schools. Moreover, consistent with other work in this area, much of the variation in school dropout and turnover rates could be attributed to differences in the background characteristics of the students. Yet student composition, school resources, and school processes - factors that policy makers and educators control - also influenced dropout and turnover rates.
This study uses nationally representative high school student data to show raceethnicity and gender differences in reasons for early school dropout and plans for dropouts to resume their education. Factor analyses show that separate reasons for dropping out include school-related, family-related, and job-related causes, as well as influences from peers and residential mobility. White dropouts cited alienation from school more often than either African Americans or Hispanics of both sexes. African American males reported being suspended or expelled from school more than the other groups. Hispanic and African American females cited family-related reasons more often than did White females. The overwhelming majority of dropouts did have plans for resuming their education, which differed across race-ethnicity and gender. Male and female White dropouts planned to take equivalency tests; Hispanic adolescents favored attending alternative high schools; and African American adolescents planned to return to a regular high school to earn their diplomas. Implications for research and practice are discussed.
In tracking the educational progress of a sample of Baltimore school-children from entrance into first grade in fall 1982 through early spring 1996, the authors examined the children's personal qualities, first-grade experiences, and family circumstances as precursors to high school dropout. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of dropout involving family context measures (stressful family changes, parents' attitudes, and parents' socialization practices), children's personal resources (attitudes and behaviors), and school experiences (test scores, marks, and track placements). These various measures were found to influence dropout independently of sociodemographic factors and account for much of the difference in the odds of dropout associated with family socioeconomic status, gender, family type, and other "risk factors." The authors take a life-course perspective on dropout, viewing it as the culmination of a long-term process of academic disengagement.
Despite numerous advances in the study of attrition, there are many questions that have yet to be adequately explored. Although answers will come, there remain important limits to our ability to understand and reduce student dropout from higher education. Understanding these limits is essential to the mounting of successful retention programs.
Using a longitudinal sample of eighth graders who lived with both biological parents in 1988, we estimate the increased risk of dropping out among students whose two-parent families experienced disruption over the subsequent 4 years. We differentiate the impact on school dropout of initial family income before family disruption from income change after the marriage ends. This approach helps to disentangle two interpretations of the relation between income and family structure. Our results suggest that both measures of income are significant contributors of the risk of dropping out for children whose families became mother-only families. When income loss is taken into account, along with initial income and other family, demographic, and prior school achievement factors, there is no evidence of increased risk of dropout among children who began to live with a single mother during the 1988-1992 period.
The problem of high school dropouts has generated increased interest among researchers, policymakers, and educators in recent years. This paper examines the many issues involved in trying to understand and solve this complex social and educational problem. The issues are grouped into four areas covering the incidence, causes, consequences, and solutions to the problem. Within each area, the discussion identifies the important issues involved, the current state of research on the issues, and considerations for future research.
Part One of this book discusses the curricular cases, curricular changes, needed changes in instructional delivery, and the visible and invisible dropout. Part Two provides new data on delinquency and dropouts, alternative centers for learning, noncurricular changes, immigrant and seasonal farm workers, and current prevention practices. This book is directed at teachers, school administrators, educational policymakers, and anyone concerned with dropout prevention. The programs and strategies outlined in this edition not only provide positive direction, they can improve the educational quality in any school system. This second edition adds new materials on migrant children, an alternative school in a small rural county, family resource centers in rural areas of a southern state, and material that assesses what has transpired regarding dropouts since 1990 and the publication of the first edition. (Contains 1 figure and 158 references.) (SLD)
Although prevailing research indicates that holding back students carries negative effects, retention is becoming ever more popular. Administrators seeking secure funding for retention alternatives face considerable resistance, while the decision to add a full year of expenditures for a retained student is made without considering budgetary implications. Research is needed on reliable alternatives responsive to administrative realities. (MLH)
Reports on qualitative study of focus group interviews with Chicano/Latinos who had dropped out of school. Responses revealed themes of alienation and discrimination in the school setting. Discusses roles of school counselors as multicultural advocates and community-family-school liaisons. Recommendations from focus groups centered on three areas of change: structural support, school-home link, and accountability of interventions. (Author/JDM)
By using a competing risks model, survival analysis methods can be extended to predict which of several mutually exclusive outcomes students will choose based on predictor variables, thereby ascertaining if the profile of risk differs across groups. The paper begins with a brief introduction to logistic regression and some of the basic concepts of survival analysis necessary to understand the competing risks survival analysis method. A data set is used to illustrate conducting the competing risks survival analysis, and results of that analysis for each competing risk and predictor variable are presented and interpreted. The procedure for conducting a competing risks survival analysis is similar to that of conducting a survival analysis with only one outcome. Data are prepared and coded in a like manner, and survival and hazard functions are interpreted by the same guidelines. However, in a competing risks survival analysis, the hazard probabilities for each competing outcome are recombined to create a complete profile of each risk for each time period in question. Data from the Dallas (Texas) public schools for 7,748 students (ninth graders in 1990-91) with no more than one of the defined competing risks (school leaving or completion) illustrate the analysis approach. Appendixes contain a Statistical Analysis System program for the analysis, withdrawal and dropout reasons for the student cohort, and a discussion of the transformation of data from person-data to person-period-data. (Contains 2 figures, 12 tables, and 33 references.) (SLD)
Interviews were conducted with 104 Mexican American high school graduates and dropouts to determine why some students leave school. The interviewees reported similar family backgrounds (parental educational and occupational levels), but graduates were more likely to report having more friends, more siblings who had graduated, better overall grades, and (surprisingly) lower English language proficiency. (KH)
Guidelines for articulation of a framework for practical application of proportional-hazards models (PHMs) to professional survival analysis are provided. Focus is on data analysis fitting the PHMs with the semi-parametric methods of partial likelihood; this strategy is available in the BMDP2L and SAS PROC PHGLM computer programs. Areas in which advice and clarification are particularly apt include the definition of terms, the model and its assumptions, model-building, and interpretation and reporting of estimated model parameters. The presentation is based on a data-based example from a study of 10-year teacher survival patterns for a cohort of teachers who entered the profession in 1972 in Michigan. Survival analysis seeks to predict the duration during which a subject remains in a situation, in this case, the teaching profession. Discrete and continuous time analysis are examined; and the use of univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analysis are outlined. Choosing predictors and building a hierarchy of models, including interactions and predictors, and summarizing and comparing fitted models are discussed. Nine graphs and two tables are provided. (TJH)
Core curriculum and multicultural education are two major approaches advocated in the current school reform movement. This article argues that neither of these approaches adequately addresses the problem of those minority groups who have not traditionally done well in the public school. Core curriculum advocates falsely assume that as a result of instituting a core curriculum, demanding higher standards, and patching up supposed individual deficiencies, all students will perform as expected. Multicultural education advocates inadequately design their program to focus on cultural differences in content and form. This article contends that the crucial issue in cultural diversity and learning is the relationship between the minority cultures and the American mainstream culture. Minorities whose cultural frames of reference are oppositional to the cultural frame of reference of American mainstream culture have greater difficulty crossing cultural boundaries at school to learn. Core curriculum and multicultural advocates have yet to understand and take this into account.
"Schooling Disadvantaged Children: Racing Against Catastrophe" assesses the current status of disadvantaged children in American society and offers a set of policy recommendations for addressing their educational needs. In Part I the authors begin by describing the various definitions of "disadvantaged" used by researchers and policy makers, linking these definitions to the strategies and policies they imply in efforts to address the problems of the disadvantaged. Part I also includes a socio-demographic profile of the disadvantaged and a projection of changes in that population over the next 35 years. Part II is a comprehensive review and evaluation of compensatory education efforts (pre-school, elementary, and secondary) over the past 25 years. In addition to its outstanding scope and depth, this section provides an interpretive framework for analysis that groups programs into useful categories and summarizes the features of successful programs. In Part III the authors describe the types of data (at levels ranging from classroom to national) needed by policy makers and practitioners to ameliorate the conditions of the disadvantaged. They also propose a theory-based approach to restructuring schools to make them more responsive to disadvantaged students. The authors conclude by developing the policy implications of the current and future conditions of disadvantaged students in U.S. schools. Their thorough and reflective analysis will provide a solid basis for all future discussion and debate of issues surrounding the education of disadvantaged children.
This timely volume will be an important resource for policy makers, researchers, and administrators in education. It will also be valuable for courses in the sociology of education, educational policy, urban education, and educational administration. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)