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Transport impacts of the Copenhagen Metro
Abstract
The Copenhagen Metro is considered an effective way to tackle the declining use of public transport in the capital as well as inner city congestion caused by private cars. The article contains an analysis of the transport impact of the metro in the harbour corridor based on traffic counts, panel interviews and model forecasts. The analysis shows that the bulk of the modal shift to the metro derives from bus passengers (70–72%) while between 8% and 14% is attributable to car users. Between 13% and 18% of metro trips are classified as positive induced traffic.
... The influences of a new public transport system on the changing of travel behaviour have been investigated for a long period. However, most of investigations were taken in countries where the public transport system is already well-planned and the people are well organized with their trips [21,22,23,24,25,26]. Examining influences of the opening of a new railway station in the Netherlands, a study found some differences of travel patterns before and after the opening of the station. ...
... A study about travel behaviour after a launch of a new Metro system in Athens demonstrated the metro has attracted about 16% of private car users and about 53% of bus rider [22]. Counting how people use travel mode six months before and six months after the operation of a metro in Denmark, results showed the decrease in car traffic is between 6.5% and 7.5% [23]. However, in the study is not clear the number of private car users who shift to public transport. ...
... Other topics related to the influence of a new transport system often discuss the implications of travel behaviour changes toward the built environment, such as air quality, congestions, and environmental impact and enhancing urban development [16,23,31]. ...
For the last decade when travelling the majority of people rely on cars. To this extent, every public building has the obligation to provide parking area. In transport studies, a long-standing debate has been arguing about in what ways the role of travel mode choices contributes to the association between built environment and travel behaviour. In regard to the presence of the new MRT system in Jakarta, this paper is to review the literature for a theoretical exploration study about how people make their travel mode decision from private cars to public transport. Focusing on travel-to-work behaviour, the study identifies comfort, awareness, location, time management, cost, regulation, and pre-planned activities as attributes which influence travel mode choice. In addition, socio-demographics characteristics and pre-condition habits on using public transport describe how individuals view the attributes. This paper proposes awareness of public transport strategy for the stakeholders.
... The influences of a new public transport system on the changing of travel behaviour have been investigated for a long period. However, most of investigations were taken in countries where the public transport system is already well-planned and the people are well organized with their trips [21,22,23,24,25,26]. Examining influences of the opening of a new railway station in the Netherlands, a study found some differences of travel patterns before and after the opening of the station. ...
... A study about travel behaviour after a launch of a new Metro system in Athens demonstrated the metro has attracted about 16% of private car users and about 53% of bus rider [22]. Counting how people use travel mode six months before and six months after the operation of a metro in Denmark, results showed the decrease in car traffic is between 6.5% and 7.5% [23]. However, in the study is not clear the number of private car users who shift to public transport. ...
... Other topics related to the influence of a new transport system often discuss the implications of travel behaviour changes toward the built environment, such as air quality, congestions, and environmental impact and enhancing urban development [16,23,31]. ...
For the last decade when travelling the majority of people rely on cars. To this extent, every public building has the obligation to provide parking area. In transport studies, a long-standing debate has been arguing about in what ways the role of travel mode choices contributes to the association between built environment and travel behaviour. In regard to the presence of the new MRT system in Jakarta, this paper is to review the literature for a theoretical exploration study about how people make their travel mode decision from private cars to public transport. Focusing on travel-to-work behaviour, the study identifies comfort, awareness, location, time management, cost, regulation, and pre-planned activities as attributes which influence travel mode choice. In addition, socio-demographics characteristics and pre-condition habits on using public transport describe how individuals view the attributes. This paper proposes awareness of public transport strategy for the stakeholders. Keywords: travel behaviour, travel mode choice, public transport, built environment, parking, public transport, Jakarta MRT system, MRT
... s given inTable 3. The Table shows that passenger numbers / passenger kilometres have grown significantly over the period considered. However, despite these positive trends the figures are below the ones initially forecasted when the project was decided upon (Sputnic [5]). Source: Danish Statistical Bureau (online database available at www.dst.dk). [6]). ...
... Evidence is available regarding both some induced trips as well as transfer of already existing trips from other modes incl. car, bus and bicycle (Ildensborg- Hansen and Vuk [6]). In some cases there is evidence that average travel time has reduced which has led to changes in destination choice due to improved accessibility for these destinations (Ildensborg-Hansen and Vuk [6]. ...
... car, bus and bicycle (Ildensborg- Hansen and Vuk [6]). In some cases there is evidence that average travel time has reduced which has led to changes in destination choice due to improved accessibility for these destinations (Ildensborg-Hansen and Vuk [6]. These travel time gains are important in terms of economic implications and the socioeconomic balance of the Copenhagen Metro. ...
Across Europe a substantial number of metro systems have been constructed in
major cities during the last three decades, e.g. Seville (2009) Duisburg (1992),
Lille (1983) and Prague (1974). Metros offer large urban areas significant
increases in the capacity of the public transport systems both in terms of quantity
and quality but on the other hand require substantial capital costs. Therefore,
careful consideration to the expected usage and benefits delivered of a metro
system should be undertaken in order to ensure the economic feasibility. In this
paper two metro systems will be examined: the Copenhagen Metro and the
Bucharest Metro. The Copenhagen Metro was opened in 2002 and the Bucharest
was opened in 1979. These two cases are interesting as they can highlight
differences regarding metro systems in Eastern and Western Europe. Key
information regarding both metros will be highlighted in terms of background to
the decision of developing the metro systems, construction and financing
arrangements, current operations and plans for future extensions. Further
assessment regarding the integration of the metro within the overall public
transport system will be given, incl. ticketing and information integration as well
as the interchange facilities. Particular focus will be on the impacts of the metro
systems in terms of patronage and modal shift effects as well as consideration to
the possible wider economic implications.
Keywords: passenger transportation, metro systems, European context,
Copenhagen, Bucharest.
... PETTERSSON, Fredrik; SUNDBERG, Ida; KHAN, Jamil increase the share of public transport in Copenhagen, while simultaneously act as a driver for urban development in a manner corresponding strongly on the planning ideals of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) sits well within a sustainability planning rhetoric. (Gospodini 2005) According to Vuk (2005) there is also some evidence towards the first two objectives being fulfilled. The introduction of the Metro has changed, and will continue to change travel patterns and habits in the Copenhagen area dramatically. ...
... According to Vuk (2005) the impact on modal changes for traffic between Amager after the construction of the Metro is characterised by a small shift from car to Metro, and a large shift from bus to Metro. In relative terms car traffic (measured as number of persons travelling by car) decreased by approximately 4 % in 2004 relative to 2002, while the corresponding figure for bus traffic was around 40 % as a result of the Metro. ...
... In relative terms car traffic (measured as number of persons travelling by car) decreased by approximately 4 % in 2004 relative to 2002, while the corresponding figure for bus traffic was around 40 % as a result of the Metro. Moreover, it can be asserted by the figures presented by Vuk (2005) that the Metro has resulted in an overall increase of trips made by public transport in Copenhagen. There is however not any clear evidence that the travelling habits of the population of Amager has been greatly affected by the Metro. ...
Financing mega transport projects outside the normal state budget channels have become increasingly common in Sweden and Denmark during the last two decades. The paper explores the idea that these alternative financing models may affect the transition towards a more sustainable transport system. The financing models of three different projects are examined: The Oresund Link based on user fee financing; The Arlanda Rail Link implemented as a Build Operate Transfer Public Private Partnership and The Metro financed by land sales and user fees. The analysis shows that there are mechanisms in the three financing models under study that have important implications, positive as well as negative, from a sustainability perspective. We argue the sustainability implications can be conceptualised as relating to environmental as well as social and economic issues and that the mechanisms of the financing models entail positive as well as negative sustainability implications.
... In Table 1 the mode shift from cars is listed for a range of public transport systems. The systems mentioned gave rise to significant mode shifts from other modes, especially from buses, e.g. in Copenhagen and Istanbul (Vuk, 2005;Yazici et al., 2013), from bicycles in Utrecht (Finn et al., 2011) and from metro in Stockholm (Finn et al., 2011). Again, effects vary notably across all systems. ...
... Stombuss (Blue buses) (BRT, Stockholm)5%(Finn et al., 2011) Trans-Val-de-Marne (BRT, Paris) 8%(Finn et al., 2011) BRT Line 1 (BRT, Beijing) 12%(Deng & Nelson, 2013) Jokeri line (BRT, Helsinki) 12%(Finn et al., 2011) TransJakarta (BRT, Jakarta) 14%(Ernst, 2005) Bus-VAO (BRT, Madrid) 15% (Finn et al., 2011) QBC -Malahide corridor (BRT, Dublin) 17% (O'Mahony, 2002) Kent Thameside (BRT, Kent) 19% (Deng & Nelson, 2011) Orange Line (BRT, Los Angeles) 19% (Callaghan & Vincent, 2007) South Miami-Dade Busway (BRT, Miami) 21% (National BRT Institute, 2003) Nantes BHLS (BRT, Nantes) 29% (Rabuel, 2010) O-Bahn (BRT, Adelaide) 40% (Currie & Sarvi, 2012) Angers Tramway (LRT, Angers) 0% (Olesen, 2014) Midland Metro (LRT, Birminigham) 13% (Harper & Bird, 2000) Nantes LRT (LRT, Nantes) 17-37% (Lee & Senior, 2013) Croydon (LRT, Croydon) 19% (Copley, Thomas, Maunsell, & Georgeson, 2002)Metrolink (LRT, Manchester)21%(Knowles, 1996) Blue Line (LRT, Los Angeles) 21%(Lee & Senior, 2013) Sheffield Supertram (LRT, Sheffield) 22%(Lee & Senior, 2013) Blue Line (LRT, San Diego) 30% 2(Lee & Senior, 2013) Orange Line (LRT, San Diego) 50% 2(Lee & Senior, 2013) Avg. 14 European systems (LRT) 11% (Hass-Klau,Crampton, Biereth, & Deutsch, 2003) Copenhagen Metro (Metro, Copenhagen) 8-14%(Vuk, 2005) BART (Metro, San Francisco) 35%(Richmond, 1991) ...
Cities worldwide are implementing modern transit systems to improve mobility in the increasingly congested metropolitan areas. Despite much research on the effects of such systems, a comparison of effects across transit modes and countries has not been studied comprehensively. This paper fills this gap in the literature by reviewing and comparing the effects obtained by 86 transit systems around the world, including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Light Rail Transit (LRT), metro and heavy rail transit systems. The analysis is twofold by analysing (i) the direct operational effects related to travel time, ridership and modal shifts, and (ii) the indirect strategic effects in terms of effects on property values and urban development. The review confirms the existing literature suggesting that BRT can attract many passengers if travel time reductions are significantly high. This leads to attractive areas surrounding the transit line with increasing property values. Such effects are traditionally associated with attractive rail-based public transport systems. However, a statistical comparison of 41 systems did not show significant deviations between effects on property values resulting from BRT, LRT and metro systems, respectively. Hence, this paper indicates that large strategic effects can be obtained by implementing BRT systems at a much lower cost.
... From the early 1970s until 2002, public transport in Copenhagen was based on commuter rail systems (S-trains) connecting the centre to suburbs in the north and west of the city, and a bus network with high service levels on radial arterials. This implied that transit between the township situated south of the urban area (on the island of Amager), and the city centre was only possible by bus service (Ildensborg-Hansen and Vuk, 2006), private modes across two bridges over the Inner Harbour of Copenhagen (Vuk, 2005), and since 2000, by regional train across a bridge connection between the southern part of the urban area and the central station. ...
... The Metro connects to the commuter rail system via rail hubs in the city centre, and is complemented by a bus line network, thus providing numerous transit connections and many possible destinations. The new infrastructure has increased travel distances for residents of Amager (Vuk, 2005), and has mainly attracted previous bus passengers (70-72 per cent of Metro passengers), but has also reduced the use of private cars (13-18 per cent of Metro passengers). ...
This study examines the effect of accessibility to urban jobs via a public transport system on individual earnings and commuting behaviour. The effect of improved public transport based accessibility on these outcomes is determined by exploiting the exogenous variation in access to a public rail and Metro system resulting from the construction of a new terminal Metro station connecting southern townships to Copenhagen city centre. The results show that public transport based job accessibility has a positive and permanent effect on individual earnings. The increase in earnings is associated with a change in commuting patterns as the improved access to public transport facilitates a shift from employment within the township to better paid jobs in the city centre, as well as in other suburbs of the Copenhagen Metropolitan area.
... Rail transit, as a type of public transportation catches several researchers' attention and many studies are carried out in this field. Vuk (2005) analyze the effect of the metro line of Copenhagen on the traffic of inner city. He concludes that metro positively induce the traffic between 13% and 18%. ...
... Electronic travel tickets ensure easier access to public transport by reducing travel costs and travel time (Vuk, 2005). Also Hassan et al. (2013) note some passengers think that better ticketing system decreases the loading time and eventually decreases the travel time. ...
... Rail transit, as a type of public transportation catches several researchers' attention and many studies are carried out in this field. Vuk (2005) analyze the effect of the metro line of Copenhagen on the traffic of inner city. He concludes that metro positively induce the traffic between 13% and 18%. ...
... Electronic travel tickets ensure easier access to public transport by reducing travel costs and travel time (Vuk, 2005). Also Hassan et al. (2013) note some passengers think that better ticketing system decreases the loading time and eventually decreases the travel time. ...
Rail transit is one of the most important public transportation types, especially in big and crowded cities. Therefore, getting a high customer satisfaction level is an essential task for municipalities and governments. For this purpose, a survey is conducted to question the attributes related to rail transit network (metros, trams, light rail and funicular) in Istanbul. In this study, we present a novel framework which integrates statistical analysis, SERVQUAL, interval type-2 fuzzy sets and VIKOR to evaluate customer satisfaction level for the rail transit network of Istanbul. Level of crowdedness and density in the train, air-conditioning system of trains' interior, noise level and vibration during the journey, and phone services are determined as the attributes need improvements. On the other hand, different improvement strategies are suggested for the rail transit network. The proposed approach provides directions for the future investments and can be generalized and applied to complex decision making problems encounter inexact, indefinite and subjective data or uncertain information.
... While the transit ridership data can typically be obtained from the operator, estimating the mode shift from private vehicles to public transport requires other data sources, including survey data (such as in Knowles (1996) and Wang et al. (2013)) and/or traffic counts (such as in Vuk, 2005) for both before and after scenarios. In most cases, the change in transit ridership and mode share cannot directly be attributed to the new transit lines, since other factors such as changes in rest of the transport network, land-use, policy etc. may have happened simultaneously. ...
The north-south metro line in Amsterdam became operational in summer 2018, accompanied by changes to the existing bus, metro, and tram network in the city. In this paper we undertake an ex-post analysis of the transportation impacts of the network change. Using two sets of smart card transactions, of 5-6 weeks each, and corresponding Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) data, a before-after comparison is made, concerning ridership, travel times, number of transfers, and travel time reliability. The results show a 4% increase in network wide working day ridership and a strong shift from tram and bus to metro. On an average working day, more than 6,000 hours of travel time is saved. 21% of travellers have more than 1 minute shorter travel time and 13% of travellers have more than 1 minute travel time increase. Furthermore, slightly fewer transfers are made, and the aggregated effect on travel time reliability is marginally positive. For an average working day (7am to 7pm), the resulting daily societal benefits of the new public transport network are approximately €54,200. On a yearly basis the transport related societal benefits are approximately 22 million euros. Doing an ex-post analysis is not common in the literature and in practice, and therefore in a lot of cases the realized benefits of large infrastructural investments remain unknown. This study provides an example of scientific methodology development using multiple data sources, that enables such ex-post evaluations, leading to improvements in public transport assessment and planning.
... Fraszczyk and Mulley [16] studied Sydney's new autonomous metro trains and how the public felt about this innovative form of transportation. A study in Copenhagen [17] on the transport effects of a harbor corridor metro was based on traffic counts, panel discussions, and model projections. According to the traffic data in the Copenhagen study, bus riders accounted for 70-72% of the modal shift to the metro, whereas automobile users made up just 8-14%. ...
The Dhaka Metro Rail (DMR) has been constructed as part of the Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority’s 20-year Strategic Transport Plan to reduce traffic congestion in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh. The DMR is the first urban rail transit system in Bangladesh and has the potential to change the existing modal share. Commuters have mixed responses about the daily commuting on the DMR and mode choice behavior. This study analyses the commuters’ perception of a modal shift towards the DMR by applying the theory of planned behavior (TPB). The structural equation model (SEM) used environmental concern and sociodemographic factors as additional explanatory variables to improve the explanatory capability of the TPB. A questionnaire survey was administrated using an online survey and validated via an in-person interview to collect the commuters’ responses. The results reveal that environmental concern is the most significant contributor to commuters’ perceptions of a modal shift towards the DMR in Dhaka City, followed by the attitude and perceived behavioral control of the respondents. The findings offer valuable insights for the DMR and other mass rapid transit service operators for policy-making in Dhaka and other cities with similar socio-economic demographics in the world.
... Because accessibility is improving, the number of people who use public transportation to travel has increased in recent years. According to a report by the Greater Copenhagen Authority, passengers on the public transportation network in Copenhagen's core location have increased by 34%, Vuk (2005) presents a modal shift in public transportation. His analysis shows that "the bulk of the modal shift to the metro derives from bus passengers (70-72%) while between 8% and 14% is attributable to car users" (Vuk 2005, 223). ...
Mobility is a central requirement for participation. Climate policy requirements are opposed by the fact that the public transport infrastructure, like so many areas of the transport infrastructure, already has significant deficiencies in terms of accessibility. Due to its function as a service of general interest, public transport is strongly geared to being a mobility offer for everyone due to the legal requirements of the European Union. In this study, the research group focuses on people with disabilities in the city of Copenhagen. Since early 2009, with the adoption of the UN Disability Rights Convention, the concept of inclusion has become a public interest in Denmark. It ensures that people with disabilities have equal access to means of transport. This requires a modular system that makes it clear what an inclusive bus stop can look like. The research wants to make a status quo finding of the inclusion in the public transport for people withphysical disabilities and the blind through a bus stop analysis and qualitative interviews.
... Se trata de una trayectoria que comenzó en la clandestinidad, salió a la luz junto con la democracia y fue creciendo, no sin tropiezos, al ritmo de la expansión del servicio. Debido a la creciente importancia que tienen los sistemas de trenes urbanos a nivel mundial como una forma eficiente de resolver las complejidades de desplazamiento de la población en las grandes metrópolis (Vuk, 2005;Golias, 2002;Monzón, 2000), el sindicalismo de Metro se ha perfilado como un actor estratégico en el escenario nacional (Womack, 2007). Para llevar a la práctica esa capacidad, los trabajadores han tenido que sobreponerse a diversos obstáculos y sin duda el surgimiento de la Federación de Sindicatos de Metro en el año 2007 ha cumplido un rol fundamental en la consolidación de su fuerza. ...
... Opening urban rail transit will attract part of the passenger flow of public buses and private cars from the corridor. Statistics on the source of passenger flow of urban rail transit at home and abroad show the following: 50% of passenger flow of Madrid metro comes from buses and 26% from private cars; the impact study of the Creeddon Tram project showed that about 69% of passengers came from public transport and 16% from private cars (Vuk 2005). The Athens metro attracts 56% of public transport users and 16% of private car users; On the Xi'an Metro Line 2, 66.7% of passengers come from buses, 11.4% from taxis, 7.8% from private cars, and 4% from induced trips (Zhang 2012). ...
As a high-capacity transportation mode, urban rail is considered to have low per capita energy consumption and emission. The construction of urban rail can transfer the residents’ mode of travel from other high-carbon emission modes to this low-carbon emission mode, to realize the goals of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction. However, at present, there is a lack of prediction of the carbon emission reduction effects before the construction of rail transit systems, and evaluation and verification after the opening of the rail transit systems. Therefore, this study established a set of carbon emission reduction estimation models based on transportation mode transfer. A model was constructed to predict the amount of transportation mode transferred and carbon emission reduction caused by the target project, before its inception, based on the four-stage passenger flow prediction method. Following the opening of the transit system, a model based on passenger survey data to trace the source of rail transit passenger flow was constructed to estimate the carbon emission reduction. The carbon emission reduction of a rail transit line in operation in Beijing was estimated and compared by the two aforementioned methods. The results show that for the lines of good passenger flows benefit, the ex-ante evaluation approach may underestimate the carbon emission reduction effect of rail transit, but the results can still be used as an important basis for environmental assessment of engineering projects. The ex-post evaluation can be used as a more reliable carbon emission reduction accounting measure, and can also be used to adjust the ex-ante evaluation of carbon emission reduction of future rail projects.
... Although the ØDC was mandated to sell to the highest bidder, the expected profit was partly reduced due to the requirement that new-build developments have to contain 30% affordable and social housing. The initial budget of the metro was DKK 7.9 billion (approximately € 1 billion), while the final costs were DKK 12.2 billion (Vuk, 2005), so about 50% higher than initially expected. ...
This paper considers the impact of the introduction of a metro network in the Copenhagen metropolitan area. Using travel surveys from years before and after the opening of the metro network, we observe a significant change in travel times, speeds and mode choice for commutes that can completely or partly be realized by the metro. Interest in the metro among the higher educated is much stronger than among the lower educated. House prices in the vicinity of the metro stations increased significantly. The total additional value of real estate generated by the metro is appr. 40% of the actual construction cost. The government captured a substantial part of the value generated by the metro by concentrating housing construction in some hitherto undeveloped areas close to metro stations. We use a gravity model to explore the implications of the metro for urban structure in an urban equilibrium context and find that all adjustment takes place in the housing market. The lower and medium educated face adjustments in housing attractiveness that counteract the initial impact of the metro. We find no evidence for such adverse effects on the higher educated, which suggest a close connection between the impact of the metro and gentrification in the Copenhagen.
... Baum-Snow et al. (2005) concluded that the average travel time was reduced in the areas that were located near rail transit lines. Vuk (2005) carried out an analysis to determine the effect of the metro line of the city of Copenhagen on traffic, the author concluded that metro positively affects the traffic between 13% and 18%. Nelson et al. (2006) noted that Washington DC's rail transit services provided benefits in terms of traffic congestion reduction. ...
In order to evaluate the URTPSQ (Urban Rail Transit Passenger Service Quality) comprehensively, find the shortage of URTPSQ, find out the difference between the actual service situation and the passenger’s expectation and demand,and provide passengers with better travel services, a passenger-oriented KANO–Entropy–TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method is proposed and applied in this paper. Firstly, a KANO model is applied to select the service quality indicators from the 24 URTPSQ evaluation sub-indicators, according to the selection results, the KANO service quality indicators of URTPSQ are constructed. Then the sensitivity of the KANO service quality indicators based on the KANO model are calculated and ranked, the PS (Passenger Satisfaction) of each KANO service quality indicator by using the Entropy–TOPSIS method is calculated and ranked. Based on the difference between the sensitivity degree rank and the satisfaction degree rank of each KANO service quality indicator, determine the service quality KANO indicators of the URTPSQ that need to be improved significantly. A case study is conducted by taking the Chengdu subway system in China as a background. The results show that the Chengdu subway operation enterprises should pay attention to the must-be demand first, then the one-dimensional demand, finally the attractive demand. The three indicators, including transfer on the same floor in the station, service quality of staffs of urban rail transit enterprises,and cleanness in the station and passenger coach, need to be improved urgently. For the managers and operators of urban rail transit system, the passengers’ must-be demand should be satisfied first if the KANO model is applied to evaluate the service. The indicators with highest sensitivity degree and lowest TOPSIS value should be improved based on the KANO–Entropy–TOPSIS model.
First published online 14 December 2021
... Although metro adopters reduced car travel time, the metro adoption rate for car users is lower than other travel modes. This longitudinal evidence is in line with previous cross-sectional findings on light rail transit (Copley et al., 2002;Golias, 2002;Mackett and Edwards, 1998;Vuk, 2005). We found the new metro systems would have less impact than their promoters anticipated concerning the shift from cars. ...
Background:
We used the first metro system in a developing city as a natural experiment to investigate the causal inference in the new metro's impact on modal shift and active travel.
Material and methods:
The treatment group was formed by residents from neighbourhoods located within the 800-m walking distance to new metro stations. The first control group was formed by residents lived 1.6 km away from and outside of walking distance to the nearest station, and the second was 5 km away and outside of cycling distance. The groups were determined by local transit-oriented planning practice and empirical studies on active travel. Of the 5627 participants who had finished a baseline travel behaviour survey before new metro launched, 1770 returned and completed the follow-up survey a year after the metro's operation, which consists of 833 cohort participants in the treatment group and 937 in the two types of control groups. We used a difference-in-difference method to make before and after comparisons of travel behaviour changes between treatment and control groups.
Results:
Our longitudinal data analyses revealed diverse travel behaviour changes. In general, people who used to take bus have adopted metro. The average metro usage was 30.9 (28.8-33.3) minutes daily for work trips and 16.6 (14.9-18.7) minutes daily for non-work trips. Walking time decreased 19.7 minutes at most (p < 0.001), and cycling decreased 22.1 minutes daily (p < 0.001). Car and e-bike usages remained largely unchanged before and after new metro, without difference between treatment and control groups.
Conclusion:
The natural experiment study provided the first empirical evidence in a developing city context on causal inference in new metro's impact on active travel. A new metro does not necessarily promote active travel increase or car use reduction, calling for caution in making general assumptions about the effects of urban rail transit investments. We suggest local urban and transport planning knowledge could be useful in designing and explaining the complex natural experiments in transport and health.
... Otro estudio que no relaciona la aparición de nuevas estaciones de metro con los precios de viviendas es el estudio de los impactos del metro en Copenhagen (Vuk, 2005), el cual realiza un análisis del impacto de la nueva línea sobre el tráfico en el sector del puerto en base a la contabilización de tráfico, entrevistas y modelos predictivos, llegando a la conclusión de que la mayor parte del público se cambia del uso de buses a metro (entre el 70% y 72%) mientras que sólo una pequeña parte deja de viajar en su propio automóvil por ir en metro (entre 8% a 14%). Otros efectos directos son los cambios en el crecimiento del tráfico en el sector (un aumento de 4,2% en el número de viajes en el sector del puerto), y cambios en el destino elegido por las personas (disminución entre los años 2002 y 2003 en la longitud del viaje en automóvil de 13km a 11km, en promedio, lo cual sugiere que aquellos que realizaban grandes viajes en automóvil se cambiaron al transporte público, concordando con el aumento en la longitud de viaje en metro, de 9,4km por viaje en el año 2002 a 9,6km en el año 2003). ...
Impacto en el precio de departamentos nuevos del anuncio de la línea 4 del ferrocarril metropolitano de Santiago de Chile (Resumen) La red de metro de Santiago de Chile, carecía de una línea que no fuera ortogonal con las ya existente rodeando las comunas del pericentro, hasta la materialización de la Línea 4., que presenta particularidades, como conectar sectores de diferentes estratos socioculturales, accesibilidades y acceso al los centros de trabajos a comunas que estaban mal conectadas, además de presentar tres modalidades de construcción en viaducto, en superficie y subterráneo. Se estiman los efectos mediante dos modelos de precio hedónico de departamentos nuevos, en función de dos cortes transversales consecutivos. Las principales conclusiones nacen de las diferencias en cada uno de los sectores definidos. Esta capitalización de plusvalías en los inmuebles, es disímil entre cada una de las comunas.
... Other researchers focused on the impact of the new metro line on transportation. Vuk [16] analyzes the transport impact of the metro based on traffic counts, panel interviews and the forecast model. The result showed that most of the modal shift to the metro derives from bus passengers and 8% to 14% is attributable to car users. ...
Metro systems, as major components of the transit system, have been significantly developed in recent years and an increasing number of new metro lines are operated in China. This paper not only analyses the short and long-term impact of new lines opening on passenger flow from passenger volume, section imbalance coefficient, direction imbalance coefficient and travel time, with the help of passenger flow data from September 2016 to October 2018 in Shenzhen but also proposes a new method to identify the growth period of the transfer flow in new lines. The result shows that the new metro lines cannot solve the problems of imbalance and congestion in Shenzhen Metro. it increased the travel time in the morning and evening peak, but largely decreased the travel time in the off-peak period. Additionally, there is a significant positive correlation between the length of the growth period and the number of transfer stations of the transfer line.
... In letteratura sono riportati numerosi esempi di interventi integrati Negli anni si sono susseguiti altri Piani, che hanno continuato i principi del Finger Plan. Il Regional Plan del 1973 comprendeva città terminali, grandi parcheggi e impianti di risalita e strade anulari tra i corridoi radiali (Vuk, 2005). ...
In the last decades, the local and regional authorities worldwide have expressed
an increasing interest in the application of development strategies that combine
transport and land use actions to reduce the impacts of the negative
environmental and socio-economic consequences generated by the mobility
needs in the urban area. Like many other regional authorities in the world, the
Campania Region faces the problem to improve the existing transport network
and optimize the land-use. The regional railway network consists over 3.017
km of lines and 339 stations, operated by three transport companies. In order
to support the policymakers and technicians, this contribute proposes a
quantitative analysis of railway nodes in Campania Region in terms of
transport and land-use characteristics, by drawing on the recent advances of
node-place smart modelling literature. To increase the strength of our analysis,
we used only open data referring to the catchment area (CA) size and analyzed
through an open source GIS software. Based on this systematic station
inventory, we conducted a cluster analysis for all CA. In conclusion, this
contribute proposes a GIS quantitative methodology of spatial analysis to
support the strategic governance of regional/metropolitan railway network and
the related application to the Campania Region
... Despite Ecuador being the smallest county in terms of surface area and population among the three countries, it has the largest oil product demand in the long term, this is explained mainly by the boost in fuel oil consumption in thermal power plants, in addition to transport and industrial demand, another reason is the low share that natural gas has in this country's energy mix (see blue shaded area in Fig. 4). In Peru, freight transport growth is the main driving force behind the increasing demand for diesel, but growth of SUV 5 The assumed modal shift from public transport is higher than the reported by Ref. [89] for the Madrid metro (50%), the new metro in Athens (56%), the Croydon Tramlink (69%) and the Manchester Metrolink (50%). However, it is lower than the one considered for the Copenhagen metro (72%) and the Quito metro (85%). ...
Crude oil exports and imports play a crucial role in the trade balance of Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. These countries are looking into fossil fuel saving measures as a way to deal with increasing demands and decreasing oil production rates. However, studies about the long-term effects of these measures is lacking. Using a combination of energy simulation technics, 17 fuel saving strategies ranging from fuel switching to the investment in underground transport and hydropower capacity expansion were modelled and assessed to evaluate their long-term effect on fossil fuels demand reduction. Our results show that the full implementation of strategies can account for cumulative oil savings of over 550 million barrels of oil by 2030. Findings also point out that Ecuador and Colombia could face the transition from net oil-exporters to importers as soon as the end of the next decade.
... Although this article is primarily theoretical, it would be remiss not to point to examples of high-rugosity planning that merit further comparative analysis. Copenhagen's Finger Plan (Egnsplankontoret 1947; Figure 4) was first developed in 1947 as a method of linking suburban commuter transit to Copenhagen, while keeping agricultural and recreational green wedges (Brandt 1995;Vuk 2005). In this plan, the urban "fingers" are separated by rural land-use wedges. ...
By fusing land-use theory from urban and rural development, this work builds a new theory based on the urban perimeter as a functional interface important to the health of both urban and rural lands. This new theory has its antecedents in biophysical sciences where studies on structural complexity offer insight into metabolism, growth, and resilience. For example, the structural complexity of a coral reef’s surface is an important indicator of growth and resilience for the reef itself as well as the many organisms that depend upon it. This work concludes with a research and practice agenda allied with the field of ecology.
... Rail transit (RT), as a type of PT catches many researchers' attention and several studies are performed in this area (Baum-Snow et al., 2005;Pan et al., 2010;Scherer, 2010;Özgür, 2011;Givoni and Banister, 2012). Vuk (2005) carries out an analysis to determine the effect of the metro line of the city of Copenhagen on traffic. He noted that metro positively affects the traffic between 13% and 18%. ...
As a public transportation mode, rail transit systems are one of the most preferred modes to avoid traffic congestion, especially during the rush hours. This paper proposes a service quality evaluation outline to measure rail transit lines' performances via passenger satisfaction surveys. The proposed method combines statistical analysis, fuzzy trapezoidal numbers and TOPSIS to evaluate service quality levels for multi periods. In total 17,769 surveys that are conducted in Istanbul in 2012, 2013, and 2014 are considered to determine the factors need to be improved. We provide recommendations to enhance the operation for specific lines and guidelines for future investments.
... We calculated the passenger share for new infrastructure projects assuming that these projects all reach their passenger potentials. To quantify the shift effect of new infrastructure, we used the historical data from other projects around the world (Kumar and Electricwala, 2014;Milioti and Karlaftis, 2014;Shafiei et al., 2014;Vuk, 2006). These studies show that the major shift occurred between public Passenger activity is defined as the total number of trips/year in the Aburra Valley, and each subsector was modeled as a share of the overall trips. ...
The transport sector contributes to climate change, and it has been the target of public interventions to improve quality of life and reduce CO2 emissions. The Medellin metropolitan area (Colombia) has developed a mass transportation system called Metro de Medellin that integrates train lines, a tram line, BRTs, gondola lift systems, a bicycle-sharing system and hybrid buses to reduce traffic and CO2 emissions. Despite these efforts, pollution is peaking, and the situation requires new plans. The aim of this paper is to quantify the emissions that will be avoided by the implementation of Medellin's Master Plan, the promotion of telecommuting, and the development of a transport energy model for Medellin between 2010 and 2040. The results indicate that combining the promotion of mass transportation and telecommuting could represent 5.65 MTons of CO2 equivalent avoided by 2040 (9.4% reduction) and estimated total energy savings of 86,575.55 TJ. Therefore, it is necessary to implement complementary policies in order to achieve the commitment assumed by Colombia at the COP 21. The analytical framework used here could be applied to other regions in order to evaluate environmental and energy mitigation strategies, especially in the developing world where similar policies may be in place.
... Although the bus mode was available for more than 95% of the sample, the bus usage ranged from 40% in 2007 to just 9% in 2009. This finding has also been found in other studies, for instance; Copley et al. (2002) showed that about 70% of Croydon Tramlink passengers were former bus users; Golias (2002) found that the new Athens Metro system attracted a large number of bus riders (53%) and a smaller number of private car users (24%) and Vuk (2005) showed that the bulk of the modal shift to the Copenhagen metro derived from bus passengers (70-72%) while between 8% and 14% was attributable to car users. In spite of the large amount of data collected, the survey did not provide complete information of the individual's choice set. ...
Using a dataset with transport choices of the same set of individuals (college students from
University of La Laguna), we built a novel three waves panel data around a tramline
implementation in the Santa Cruz-La Laguna corridor in Tenerife, Spain. The first two waves
were conducted in 2007, just before the tram implementation. They collect information about
Revealed Preferences (RP) of actual transport mode choices (car, bus and walk) and about Stated
Preferences (SP) in a simulated scenario considering a hypothetical binary choice between the
tram and the transport mode currently chosen by the students. The third wave gathers
information about RP in 2009, two years after the tram started operating. With this information,
we estimate several multinomial logit models and panel mixed logit models with error
components. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how the estimation of the Values of Travel Time
Savings (VTTS) changes when comparing the results obtained with models that only consider
information before or after the tram implementation with that obtained with a panel data
approach using the three waves simultaneously (RP/SP in 2007 and RP in 2009). We obtain a
better statistical fit to data and, according to our study context, more reasonable VTTS using a
panel data approach combining before and after information and both revealed and stated
preferences. Our results suggest that when a new transport mode is implemented, the VTTS
obtained with models than only consider prior or later periods of time can be underestimated
and hence lead to wrong valuations of the benefits associated with the new alternative, even
when stated preferences are used to anticipate the change in the transport system.
... Although the bus mode was available for more than 95% of the sample, the bus usage ranged from 40% in 2007 to just 9% in 2009. This finding has also been found in other studies, for instance; Copley et al. (2002) showed that about 70% of Croydon Tramlink passengers were former bus users; Golias (2002) found that the new Athens Metro system attracted a large number of bus riders (53%) and a smaller number of private car users (24%) and Vuk (2005) showed that the bulk of the modal shift to the Copenhagen metro derived from bus passengers (70-72%) while between 8% and 14% was attributable to car users. In spite of the large amount of data collected, the survey did not provide complete information of the individual's choice set. ...
Using a dataset with transport choices of the same set of individuals (college students from
University of La Laguna), we built a novel three waves panel data around a tramline
implementation in the Santa Cruz-La Laguna corridor in Tenerife, Spain. The first two waves
were conducted in 2007, just before the tram implementation. They collect information about
Revealed Preferences (RP) of actual transport mode choices (car, bus and walk) and about Stated
Preferences (SP) in a simulated scenario considering a hypothetical binary choice between the
tram and the transport mode currently chosen by the students. The third wave gathers
information about RP in 2009, two years after the tram started operating. With this information,
we estimate several multinomial logit models and panel mixed logit models with error
components. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how the estimation of the Values of Travel Time
Savings (VTTS) changes when comparing the results obtained with models that only consider
information before or after the tram implementation with that obtained with a panel data
approach using the three waves simultaneously (RP/SP in 2007 and RP in 2009). We obtain a
better statistical fit to data and, according to our study context, more reasonable VTTS using a
panel data approach combining before and after information and both revealed and stated
preferences. Our results suggest that when a new transport mode is implemented, the VTTS
obtained with models than only consider prior or later periods of time can be underestimated
and hence lead to wrong valuations of the benefits associated with the new alternative, even
when stated preferences are used to anticipate the change in the transport system.
... Accessibility can be evaluated based on the available facilities, and refers to the ease of reaching bus stop locations. Researchers focused their studies on strategies to be implemented for improving accessibility for all users, and hence public transportation quality (Murray et al. 1998;Chien and Qin 2004;Vuk 2005;Rastogi and Krishna Rao 2003;Rastogi and Krishna Rao 2009;Loader and Stanley 2009). Rodriguez and Targa (2004) found that passenger accessibility is an important quality in public transportation services, and that an increased access travel time of five minutes is relevant for users. ...
This paper presents a methodology for determining public transportation quality attributes, based on a decision support system (DSS). The platform, once set up, combines the capability of geographic information systems (GIS) to analyze spatial attributes and the smartphone mobile technology, which is a “smart” solution to collect dynamically bus locations and their cinematic variables. The DSS has been applied to a real case study in order to test its reliability. The results highlight a good flexibility of the platform combined with a good level of scalability and interoperability of the system that can be applied in any context. Moreover, the high penetration rate of smartphones among users and the system capability of disaggregating data in both space and time, makes the DSS useful to identify operational problems and take appropriate actions with a non-intrusive approach.
... Por otra parte, se ha verificado en promedio (Vuk, 2005) que de los usuarios de un nuevo proyecto de Metro, un 70% proviene de los buses, un 15% son antiguos usuarios del automóvil y un 15% es nueva demanda, es decir, viajes que antes de existir el Metro simplemente no se realizaban. En el trabajo de Knowles (1996) se estimó que la demanda inducida por un tren ligero en Manchester fue superior al 20%, mientras que Monzón (2000) estima una demanda inducida de un 25% producto de una nueva línea de Metro en Madrid. ...
Large cities around the world that have successfully addressed their public transport problems have made it mainly through the following two public policies: a significant expansion of the Metro or urban train networks, and a tight regulation of the use of automobiles. Empirical evidence worldwide shows that the expansion of the Metro network produces a much more effective reduction in the use of private transport than alternative policies as for instance subsidizing the tariff of public transport. Besides, the existence of an important Metro or urban train network enlarges the effectiveness of other regulatory policies to the use of automobile, as road pricing and specific taxes, since the users of automobiles see in Metro a reasonable alternative of transport, which is not the case for buses.
... In het regionale ontwikkelingsplan van 1973 werden bijkomende autofaciliteiten, zoals park&ride-voorzieningen in overstapstations en tangentiële verbindingswegen voorzien. De actualisatie van het regionale plan in 1989 voorziet ook de ontwikkeling van industriële en dienstenactiviteiten binnen een straal van één kilometer rond de stations, met als motivatie dat hierdoor een deel van het pendelverkeer naar de kernstad zou geëlimineerd worden (Vuk, 2005). Gezien de schaal van het gebied waarop het Vingerplan betrekking had, kan ook hier de bedenking gemaakt worden of we nog wel van intrastedelijke polycentraliteit kunnen spreken. ...
... Por otra parte, se ha verificado en promedio (Vuk, 2005) que de los usuarios de un nuevo proyecto de Metro, un 70% proviene de los buses, un 15% son antiguos usuarios del automóvil y un 15% es nueva demanda, es decir, viajes que antes de existir el Metro simplemente no se realizaban. En el trabajo de Knowles (1996) se estimó que la demanda inducida por un tren ligero en Manchester fue superior al 20%, mientras que Monzón (2000) estima una demanda inducida de un 25% producto de una nueva línea de Metro en Madrid. ...
Large cities around the world that have successfully addressed their public transport problems have made it mainly through the following two public policies: a significant expansion of the Metro or urban train networks, and a tight regulation of the use of automobiles. Empirical evidence worldwide shows that the expansion of the Metro network produces a much more effective reduction in the use of private transport than alternative policies as for instance subsidizing the tariff of public transport. Besides, the existence of an important Metro or urban train network enlarges the effectiveness of other regulatory policies to the use of automobile, as road pricing and specific taxes, since the users of automobiles see in Metro a reasonable alternative of transport, which is not the case for buses.
... The assumed modal shift from public transport is higher than the reported by(Vuk, 2005) for the Madrid subway (50%), the new subway in Athens (56%), the Crydon Tramlink (69%) and the Manchester Subwaylink (50%), however it is lower than the considered for the Copenhaguen Subway (72%) and the Quito Subway (85%). ...
... Madrid subway, up to 25% were induced trips [29, 32]. ...
We present details of access-egress as well as other travel characteristics of metro users in Delhi, and its satellite cities. For this study, we conducted an on-board survey of metro commuters (n=1112) in 2011. Survey respondents reported use of seven different modes to access metro stations, with 55% using non-motorised modes. The alternative modes reported by the respondents indicate that, in the absence of metro, a majority of commuters will use bus, and up to 40% will use private motorised modes. Up to 18% of the respondents may not have made the trips if metro was not available, indicating a significant proportion of induced trips. We used multinomial logistic regression models to understand the factors associated with the choice of access-egress modes, as well as alternative mode, for the current trip. Trip length, vehicle ownership, location of metro station (classified as administrative units within Delhi, and neighbouring cities), and population density around metro station have statistically significant associations with the choice of access/egress modes. Alternative modes of metro trips are found to be dependent on trip length and vehicle ownership. We found that up to 88% of metro trips have an interconnectivity ratio with the range of 0.2 to 0.5, with 0.4 as the mean, corroborating the results of [13] for a European setting. The results indicate that this ratio may be universally applicable, thus making it a robust parameter to assess, or forecast, ridership of public transportation systems.
This paper empirically demonstrates the value of quasi-experimental study designs to evaluate the direct impacts of new public transit services on ridership within its corridor. Using a new bus rapid transit (BRT) service, CMAX, in Columbus, Ohio, USA, as an example, we compare its impact on ridership based on a pre-post and quasi-experimental analysis framework. We conduct the pre-post analysis using a ridership space-time cube exploring a massive Automatic Passenger Counter (APC) database. Differences in total passenger counts before and after the BRT intervention indicate a 36% increase in ridership within its corridor. However, this patronage increase may not be attributable solely to the new public transit service. Potential confounding effects include systemwide ridership trends and a new unlimited transit pass program for downtown workers. To address these issues, we adopt a quasi-experimental study design with a difference-in-differences (DiD) identification strategy. We use propensity score matching (PSM) to match a counterfactual control group with the treatment group when implementing DiD model. After accounting for confounding effects, we find a less than 5% increase but not statistically significant impacts of CMAX on ridership. Our results support the argument that a simple pre-post analysis ignoring confounding effects can lead to a misleading evaluation of a new public transit service’s direct impact on ridership.
This paper examines the impact of urban light rail systems on congestion, travel time and pollution. Drawing on data from mid-size European cities, I estimate the impact of supply changes for the entire sample and applied a differences-in-differences analysis to a sample of cities that did not have rail systems in the initial year of the considered period. I find evidence that an increase in the supply of rail transport leads to less congestion, less travel time and less pollution. Furthermore, cities with a new rail system have on average 7% less congestion, 1% less travel time and 3% less pollution than cities with no rail systems. The results suggest that light rail systems have been successful in containing the negative externalities associated with car traffic in mid-size European cities.
This study applied a decision-based model with uncertainty to identify factors in mode choice and to rank their influence in attracting riders to available public transit modes in the city of Tehran. The model integrates a fuzzy Delphi method and a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with fuzzy set theory to process opinion uncertainties. The surveys found that from highest to lowest in influence, the service attribute rankings were safety, reliability, frequency, comfort, travel cost, information provision, and accessibility. Based on these attributes, subway ranked highest in passenger attraction potential, followed by ride-hailing, bus rapid transit, vans and taxis, then public bus services. These findings support the hypothesis that it is worthwhile for big cities to ramp investments in public transit improvements even as ride hailing services proliferate with the potential to attract users away from more throughput-efficient and lower-cost services.
Urban rail transit has played an important role in big and crowded cities. Providing services with high levels of customer satisfaction is essential in order to increase the sharing rate of urban rail transit and to reduce traffic congestion by shifting people away from private car use. Therefore, it is of great significance to improve the customer satisfaction of urban rail transit. This paper presents an intuitionistic fuzzy group decision model to evaluate the customer satisfaction of urban rail transit. An evaluation indicator system including seven categories of indicators is established to measure passengers’ satisfaction. The overall customer satisfaction level of the urban rail transit lines is obtained by the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy and intuitionistic fuzzy weighted average (IFWA) operator. The intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to solve attribute weights and IFWA operator is used to solve the information aggregation. Drawing on Tianjin urban rail transit lines as a case study, the detailed analyses were conducted to evaluate the overall customer satisfaction level of five urban rail transit lines and as such suggesting remedy strategies. The results can help urban rail transit operation company to improve the service quality of urban rail transit.
This exploratory research paper seeks to consider the problems that may arise in the process of creating deep and lasting partnerships in public-private partnerships (PPPs). It does this by contrasting two case studies of very different PPPs, Copenhagen's metro project and Melbourne City Link. The paper puts forward the case for the author's concern that a deep partnership could lead either to mercantile government or quasi-governmental private parties and thus lead to a diminution of the benefits of PPPs. The paper concludes that these concerns are relevant and need to be considered and guarded against no matter the contract conditions.
Ignoring the inertia effects on transport-mode choice behavior may lead to erroneous decisions
in transport policy. Around changes in the transport system, the majority of studies
on inertia have relied on combining Revealed Preferences (RP) and Stated Preferences (SP)
obtained prior to the introduction of new transport modes and measuring inertia as the
effect that the real choices have on the choices in the hypothetical new scenarios. In this
study, we analyze the role of the inertia using a novel panel data from the same set of individuals
composed of two waves. The first wave was gathered before a new tram came into
service and consisted of a RP survey and a SP survey which included the new public tram as
a hypothetical alternative. The second wave consisted of a RP survey conducted two years
later, after the tram started operating. Using these two waves, we estimate panel mixed
logit models and found a significant inertia effect only between the RP waves which, having
accounted for changes in other factors, increases the probability of choosing the car after
the tram implementation. However, we did not find inertia effect on SP, hence taking into
account only the RP-SP outcomes before tram might have led to wrong conclusions about
the effect of the transport intervention on the modal share. Furthermore, we compare models
with and without inertia effect and conclude that the models with inertia provide better
fit to data, smaller direct car elasticities and increasing asymmetric effects between the car
and public transport.
Ignoring the inertia effects on transport-mode choice behavior may lead to erroneous decisions in transport policy. Around changes in the transport system, the majority of studies on inertia have relied on combining Revealed Preferences (RP) and Stated Preferences (SP) obtained prior to the introduction of new transport modes and measuring inertia as the effect that the real choices have on the choices in the hypothetical new scenarios. In this study, we analyze the role of the inertia using a novel panel data from the same set of individuals composed of two waves. The first wave was gathered before a new tram came into service and consisted of a RP survey and a SP survey which included the new public tram as a hypothetical alternative. The second wave consisted of a RP survey conducted two years later, after the tram started operating. Using these two waves, we estimate panel mixed logit models and found a significant inertia effect only between the RP waves which, having accounted for changes in other factors, increases the probability of choosing the car after the tram implementation. However, we did not find inertia effect on SP, hence taking into account only the RP-SP outcomes before tram might have led to wrong conclusions about the effect of the transport intervention on the modal share. Furthermore, we compare models with and without inertia effect and conclude that the models with inertia provide better fit to data, smaller direct car elasticities and increasing asymmetric effects between the car and public transport.
Based on the statistics of 121 metro systems in the world, this paper analyses the worldwide metro construction from 1863 to 2003. Linear regression is introduced to show the relationship between the metro scale and urban population, as well as surface area. And by applying the hierarchical cluster analysis, three types of metro systems are identified in terms of their scales and network indexes: the first metro system with 10 samples, which is huge and with complex network, such as London and New York; the second metro system with four samples, which is relatively big but with limited network patulous potential, such as Athens and Vienna; and the third metro system with 107 samples, which is relatively small but has great patulous potential in network, such as Beijing and Montreal. Our findings suggest that metro scale, as well as network indexes, show great differences among five major continents. Metro systems in Europe and North America embrace a more mature network; however, metro systems in Asia and South America have greater network patulous potential. Also we find that in most cases urban population has more impacts on metro scale, especially to the samples in the third metro system. However, when it comes to the first metro system, surface area has significant impacts on metro scale. Finally three linear regression models are implemented to calculate the theoretical scales of 53 Chinese major cities, and it shows that theoretic metro scales in these cities range from 37.2 km to 129.9 km. These metro systems can be divided into four classes based on their model calculations. According to the result, Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing should develop the biggest metro systems in China. With the progress of urbanization in China, metro systems will grow rapidly in the coming years, especially in the developed regions.
Transportation related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for an increasing proportion of total emissions in the United Kingdom (UK) and globally. The provision of rail transit is popularly proposed to reduce transport GHG emissions; however, the provision of new infrastructure is itself GHG intensive. Understanding of the GHG emissions impact of rail projects is limited and very few longitudinal studies have been carried out. Existing assessments are often limited both in their scope and the factors considered. A holistic understanding of GHG impacts must include an assessment of capital GHG emissions, operational energy and maintenance as well as an assessment of ridership mode shift and mode share impacts and the relationship between transit infrastructure and land use. This paper explores rail infrastructure projects and their associated GHG emissions. Guidance is given on the aspects of rail planning, design and construction that must be considered to more fully understand the associated GHG impacts.
Changes in travel behavior near the Sheppard Subway Line in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and the associated greenhouse gas impacts were examined. A study looked at initial changes in mode share after the line opened in 2002 and examined ongoing mode share trends through 2012. The initial mode shift was assessed through an analysis of bus boardings, subway platform counts, and traffic counts made between 2000 and 2012. Longitudinal changes in mode share were assessed with the use of transit survey data. For the first 6 years of operation, the Sheppard Subway Line produced more greenhouse gas (GHG) per passenger kilometer traveled (PKT) than the bus that it had replaced. A net GHG reduction of 66.4 kilotons of CO2 equivalent was calculated but was wholly dependent on avoided car PKTs that may have been offset in their entirety by induced travel on Sheppard Avenue.
Urban mobility problems, such as congestion, have been threatening the quality of life and the competitiveness of urban areas as well as their sustainable development. The need to integrate land use and transport policies has been widely recognised as an important approach within the ‘predict and prevent’ paradigm for mobility management. Nevertheless, such integration is seldom put into practice. The lack of design support tools is pointed out as one of the reasons for this fact.The accessibility concept is believed to provide a useful framework to support the design of integrated land use and transport policies. This paper hypothesises that measures of comparative accessibility by transport mode can operationalise the accessibility concept for this purpose. In order to test this hypothesis, a design support tool was developed, based on a measure of comparative accessibility – the Structural Accessibility Layer (SAL). The usefulness of the tool, and thereby of comparative accessibility, was tested. First, the SAL is applied to a case study – Greater Oporto – and then evaluated through expert interviews. The case study provides insight into its potentials as design support tool for integrated land use and transport policies. Expert interviews enable the assessment of the robustness, usefulness and applicability of the tool. The results suggest that the SAL provides a useful operational form of the accessibility concept for design support. This research concludes that measures of structural accessibility seem to provide a useful design support framework for integrated land use and transport policy, shedding light on the sustainability of potential mobility enabled by land use and transport conditions.
GİRİŞ Son yıllardaki hızlı nüfus artışı, kentleşme ve sanayileşme; büyük şehirlerdeki çevre kirliliği sorunlarını da beraberinde getirmektedir. Konutlar ve sanayi tesisleri gibi sabit emisyon kaynaklarından ileri gelen hava kirliliğinin yanı sıra motorlu taşıtlardan kaynaklanan egzoz kirliliği de aynı derecede önemli bir sorundur. Son yıllarda, otomotiv sanayisinin gelişmesi, nüfus artışı ve ülkemizde yaşam seviyesinin yükselmesi sonucunda, motorlu karayolu taşıtları sayısında büyük bir artış olmuştur. Bunun sonucu olarak karayollarında seyir halindeki motorlu taşıtların egzozlarından kent atmosferine verilen kirleticilerin seviyeleri, bölgenin meteorolojik ve topoğrafik koşullarının etkisiyle zaman zaman insan sağlığını tehdit edici boyutlara ulaşabilmektedir. Benzin ve motorin kullanan motorlu taşıtlardan atmosfere salınan egzoz gazlarının bileşiminde; parafinler, olefinler ve aromatikler gibi yanmamış hidrokarbonlar; aldehitler, ketonlar, karboksilik asitler gibi kısmen yanmış hidrokarbonlar (HC); karbon monoksit (CO), azot oksitler (NO X), kükürt dioksit (SO 2), kurşun bileşikleri ve partikül maddeler (PM 10) bulunmaktadır. Benzinli motorlarda CO ve yanmadan kalan HC; dizel motorlarda ise NO X , SO 2 ve partikül madde gibi kirleticiler daha önemlidir (Alkaya vd., 2000). Motorlu taşıtların egzoz gazları, trafiğin yoğun olarak yaşandığı kent merkezlerindeki karbon monoksit emisyonlarının %43,9'undan, azot oksit emisyonlarının %41,0'inden, hidrokarbon emisyonlarının %26,2'sinden ve havada asılı partikül madde emisyonlarının %16,4'ünden sorumludur (EEA, 2007). Bu emisyonlar, yakıt bileşimleri ve yakıt katkı maddeleri ile ilişkili olduğu kadar, motor türü ve yanma verimi ile de doğrudan ilişkilidir. Bunun yanında yakıtların taşıtların depolarına doldurulması ve motorun sıcaklığı ile yakıt/yağ buharlaşmalarından oluşan uçucu organik madde emisyonları da önemli emisyon kaynaklarıdır. Motorlu taşıtlardan kaynaklanan emisyonlar; taşıtın yaşı, motorun çalışma devri, çalışma sıcaklığı, ortam sıcaklığı, ortam basıncı, yakıt türü ve kalitesi gibi parametrelere bağlıdır. Motorların işletme şartları da emisyon oluşumunda önemli bir etkiye sahiptir (Ergeneman, 1998).
There is increasing concern about dependence on the car and the need to improve the environment in many cities. One approach is to construct new public transport systems. Many of these are being planned and constructed in cities around the world. This paper is concerned with the way in which decisions are made about such systems, in particular the rationale underlying the decision-making process and the implications for the city in terms of travel demand, urban development and the environment. The analysis is based upon a worldwide survey carried out as part of a project to investigate the decision-making process involving the selection of the most appropriate technology for an urban transport system.
During the last couple of years numerous European cities have engaged themselves in a territorial competition that eventually may lead to a redistribution of the economic and political relations between city-regions within the European Single Market. A whole range of factors including the breaking up of Eastern Europe have facilitated this development. Within the cities this has meant that the post-war planning machine has been under severe attack. Focusing on Copenhagen, this article discusses the shift from welfare planning to entrepreneurialism within the field of urban policy. The outcome of this development, for example decisions on huge investments in infrastructure, has initiated a discussion between a pro-growth coalition consisting of major parties in the Danish Parliament, the local government and entrepreneurs in Denmark and Sweden on the one side and on the other a more critical group of environmentalists and others that confronts the idea of a booming Copenhagen.
New transit systems are viewed as an effective approach to dealing with concerns about automobile dependence and a degrading quality of life in many large cities. This paper concentrates on evaluating the impacts from the construction of a new subway system as these impacts pertain to traveler behavior and mode choice. Using the results from a revealed preference combined roadside and on-board survey from Athens, Greece, and utilizing a flexible disaggregate model specification (the heteroskedastic extreme value model) the results from the introduction of a new Metro system are evaluated. The results indicate that the demand for auto usage is fairly inelastic (with respect to both cost and time), and that Athens transit users are more sensitive to changes in cost rather than travel time. Further, the results indicate that increases in travel time and cost for the auto would increase the demand for the Metro, but not as much for the bus.
Greater Manchester's Metrolink ‘light rail’ system was designed to attract more passengers than its ‘suburban rail’ predecessors by providing congestion-free access through the heart of Manchester's city centre. ‘Before’ and ‘After’ Surveys were used to measure the impact of Metrolink Phase 1 from Bury through Manchester to Altrincham. Control areas were used on similar continuing British Rail suburban lines to isolate Metrolink's impact from other temporal changes. Metrolink has attracted more passengers than forecast, especially in the off-peak periods, despite unemployment rising by half. Many more car users than forecast switched to Metrolink and car traffic volumes fell in the Bury corridor in the peak time and in both corridors in the off-peak.
The passenger travel demand model for Copenhagen is a state-of-practice nested logit model in which the sub-models––i.e. generation, distribution and mode choice models––are connected via the measure of accessibility. The model includes in its structure a large set of explanatory variables at all three levels. The model validity is strongly asserted by the fact that the forecasting results for 2000 exhibit a very good fit to the observed car and public transport traffic, and that some model results (e.g. car driving cost elasticity) match the results from other well established models well. This paper aims to provide a detailed description of the model, which can be used as a guide to the future development of similar models. Also, an application of the model in a study of road pricing in Denmark is described. This gives the reader an idea of how such a policy measure can be modelled as well the plausible magnitude of changes caused by a road pricing system.
Croydon Tramlink impact study
- G Copley
- M Thomas
- N Georgeson
Copley, G., Thomas, M. and Georgeson, N. (2002). Croydon Tramlink impact study.
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