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Land-falling Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. Part I: Case studies from 2006 and 2007.
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The potential for damage from hurricanes landfalling in Mexico is assessed. During the 1951-2000 period, Pacific hurricane hits were more frequent on coastal areas of the northwest of the country (e.g., Sinaloa and the southern half of Baja California Peninsula) as well as in southern México (Michoacán). On the Atlantic side, the Yucatán Peninsula and the northern state of Tamaulipas were the most exposed to these storms. The hurricane season reaches maximum activity in September for both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the country. During the 50 year period, five intense hurricanes (category 5) made landfall on the Gulf/Caribbean coasts, while only one such intense hurricane made a land hit on the Pacific side. While hurricanes affecting Pacific coasts show a marked increase during the last decade, those of the Atlantic side exhibit a marked de-crease since the 1970s. However, when considering the frequency of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes impacting on both littorals of the country, their numbers have considerably increased during the 1990s.
The hurricane season of 2008 in the eastern North Pacific basin is summarized, and the individual tropical cyclones are described. Official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are also evaluated. The 2008 eastern North Pacific season was relatively quiet, with overall activity at about 75% of the long-term median. A total of 16 tropical storms formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes. One hurricane, one tropical storm, and two tropical depressions made landfall in Mexico, causing eight direct deaths in that country along with significant property damage. In addition, Tropical Storm Alma was the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. On average, the official track forecasts in the eastern Pacific for 2008 were quite skillful and set records for accuracy from 1 to 3 days. However, no appreciable improvement in mean intensity forecast skill was noted.
The State of the Climate in 2006 report summarizes the year's weather and climate conditions, both globally and regionally. In addition, the year is placed into a long-term climatological context. Furthermore, notable events are also discussed.
Overall global temperatures were fifth or sixth warmest on record, depending on the dataset, continuing an upward trend in temperatures. Many countries and regions experienced their record warmest year (or tied for warmest), including Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and China, as well as parts of Australia and Canada. In many regions, the warmth in 2006 is statistically indistinguishable from the record warmth in 1998. However, 1998 was influenced by the unprecedented warming associated with the record 1997/98 El Niño, whereas 2006 was marked by a 2005/06 La Niña that transitioned into a weak-to-moderate 2006/07 El Niño.
Consistent with the warming, sea ice extent in both polar regions reached record or near-record minima. In addition, Antarctic ozone concentrations reached an all-time minimum. Also, carbon dioxide measurements increased in the atmosphere by 2.3 parts per million (ppm) in 2006 to reach a global average of 381.1 ppm.
In the global oceans, sea levels were above average for ∼80% of the ocean. The global mean sea level anomaly change of +6 mm from 2005 was the highest increase since the altimeter record began in 1993. Relative sea level change was also the highest ever recorded. Significant heat flux and current anomalies were observed in the regions of the 2006 El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole mode event.
Despite the warmth around the globe, tropical cyclone counts were near average. However, Tropical Cyclone Larry made landfall in northern Australia as one of the most intense storms in decades. Following the record Atlantic hurricane season of 2005, the 2006 season was very quiet.