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Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

May 2013
AMBIO A Journal of the Human Environment 42(4):402-13

May 2013
42(4):402-13

DOI:10.1007/s13280-013-0407-5

Source
PubMed

License
CC BY

Authors:

Tobias Lindborg

Blackthorn Science

Lars Brydsten

Umeå University

Gustav Sohlenius

Mårten Strömgren

Umeå University

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Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0407-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Location of the Forsmark site in Sweden. The area comprises forests, wetlands, agricultural areas, lakes, and the Baltic Sea

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The shoreline displacement curve for Forsmark, after SKB (2010)

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Aerial photograph of the Forsmark landscape showing the ongoing landscape succession from sea to land via young new-born lakes and wetlands

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A conceptual flow chart of the coupled Regolith-Lake-Biota development model. The flow chart describes the work process and the linkage between the underlying models used for each time step to build a landscape development model at Forsmark (Fm). The marine module runs independently from the lake module and the lakes are modeled one by one due to their individual appearance in time and space. Red dotted lines variant indicates start of a new time step

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Examples from the resulting landscape development model for Forsmark at 2000, 5000, and 10 000 ad. The figure shows examples from the landscape development model variant with the land use practice that can be observed today in the Forsmark area

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Supplementary Material

Data

April 2013

Tobias Lindborg · Lars Brydsten · Gustav Sohlenius · Mårten Strömgren · Anders Löfgren

Integrated site descriptive modelling as a coherent means of step-wise enhancement of conceptual model for NORM situations

Conference Paper

Full-text available

Oct 2020

NORM-involving industrial practices pose multifaceted environmental and radiation safety issues that need to be managed in a cost-effective but reliably safe manner that satisfies both regulatory and public concerns. In addition to the management and possible remediation of a site itself, often there are also aspects of waste and residue management ranging from near-surface to geological disposal. Particularly in the scope of radioactive waste management (RWM) programmes, there has been considerable development in site characterization methodologies over the latest decades. Also therefore, enhanced integration of developments in site characterization within RWM and the management of NORM and legacy issues would be useful. For effective, safe and consistent NORM management, it is important that the past and present situation as well as relevant future scenarios are formulated into a coherent conceptual site model (CSM) as early in the process as possible and that the developed CSM shall be periodically reviewed in the light of new information. The CSM should holistically encompass the entire system. That includes the NORM waste or contamination, any technical structures, the hydrogeological and ecological settings, and potential radiation exposure of members of the public and workers. All these aspects should be considered in the context of the prevailing situation (e.g., key characteristics of the site regulatory regime, general management plans, implementation stage). The CSM should be iterated, for the sake of relevance and development needs, with the dose assessment process and its results, and with the other end-users such as further site characterisation efforts, engineering, construction and remediation work, environmental management, and regulator and stakeholder dialogue. An effective conceptual model and its appropriate quantification through site and system descriptions serve well the dialogue and gaining trust. The approach of site descriptive modelling (SDM), aimed at establishing and quantifying an effective CSM, originated from the geological disposal programmes in Sweden and Finland, and it can easily be applied also to NORM situations. The process builds upon a common framework and is regularly re-evaluated and enhanced by means of integration of scientific and technical disciplines. Common tools include utilisation of geographical information systems, interaction matrices, supporting modelling, and identification of most effective points of further improvement. It is important that the level of effort is kept proportional to the safety concerns and available resources. Therefore, use of a graded approach in the SDM to keep the focus is an integral part of the approach. ISBN 978-92-0-120922-1. Full proceedings available at https://www.iaea.org/publications/15085/management-of-naturally-occurring-radioactive-material-norm-in-industry

Spatial‐temporal Pattern of Cultivated Land Productivity Based on Net Primary Productivity and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Songhua River Basin

Article

Mar 2022

The inefficient utilization of cultivated land puts the productivity of cultivated land in a low development state. The key challenge for the efficient utilization of cultivated land is to clarify how various factors affect the spatial differentiation pattern of cultivated land productivity (CLP), to improve food production. However, evaluating the impact of the intensity and direction of CLP in large‐scale areas is a difficulty and a gap. In this study, we used net primary productivity (NPP) to calculate the productivity of cultivated land and reveal its spatial differentiation. Meanwhile, this scientific study examined the spatio‐temporal heterogeneity of cultivated land productivity (CLP) and determined the effect intensity and the direction of effect of various factors on productivity, using the Songhua River Basin (SRB) in China as a research case. We used genetic algorithms to modify and improve a neural network model of factor dimensionality reduction, combined with path analysis, cluster analysis, and regression analysis, to identify the main factors impacting CLP, synergies between these factors, and effect intensity and direction. The results showed that: (1) the area of cultivated land in SRB decreased, but NPP of cultivated land area increased, during 2000‐2020; (2) spatially, NPP was relatively low in the middle of the basin and gradually increased towards the periphery; (3) The main positive factors were the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and total nitrogen, while the main negative factors were temperature, Ratio Vegetation Index, and total phosphorus. Individual principal factors and the synergy between these factors gave CLP different temporal and spatial heterogeneity. Collaborative management of the threshold range of various influencing factors would improve the CLP. This novel information on spatial‐temporal differentiation and factors influencing CLP can be important in formulating science‐based and feasible policies for land protection and for improving CLP. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2018
J ENVIRON RADIOACTIV

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel ongoing research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multidisciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. T Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments.

The influence of climate and permafrost on catchment hydrology

Thesis

Full-text available

Jun 2016

Emma Lindborg

The cycling of water in the landscape is influenced by climate change on different time scales and in different directions regarding warming or cooling trends. Along with a changing climate, also the landscape and subsurface conditions, such as permafrost extent, may change in a long-term perspective. Permafrost and hydrology are intimately connected but the interactions between them are poorly understood, and the hydrological response to climate change is complex. The first part of this thesis investigates the effects of different drivers of future changes in hydrological flow and water storage components in the present day temperate Forsmark catchment in Sweden. The role of taliks and their influence on the exchange of deep and shallow groundwater in permafrost environments are also studied. This is done by a simulation sequence where the site is exposed to the landscape, climate and permafrost changes expected from site-specific numerical modeling. In the second part of this thesis, present day periglacial hydrological processes are studied in the Two Boat Lake catchment in western Greenland by field and model investigations of the site. The presence of a through talik below the Two Boat Lake, and data from a deep bedrock borehole into the talik, enable studies of the hydrological interactions between the lake and the talik. The spatial and temporal variability of the different water balance components of the catchment are quantified and the interactions between the surface water and the supra- and sub-permafrost groundwater are analyzed. The results show that the investigated changes in climate and permafrost influence hydrology more than the investigated landscape changes. Under permafrost conditions, the general direction of the exchange between deep and shallow groundwater may change relative to unfrozen conditions. The simulation studies of Forsmark show that the relative topography between taliks governs the recharging and discharging conditions, which is consistent with results from Two Boat Lake. The lake is located at high altitude relative to other taliks and hydraulic measurements indicate recharging conditions. The talik recharge is small compared to other water balance components and does not influence the lake level, which instead is found to be controlled by evapotranspiration and water inflow from the active layer. This is concluded from numerical simulations that take into account and combine evapotranspiration with other surface and subsurface hydrological processes. This thesis highlights the need to integrate surface and subsurface process modelling in order to quantitatively understand and represent the dynamics and complexity of hydrological interactions in periglacial catchments.

The Importance of Eolian Input on Lake-Sediment Geochemical Composition in the Dry Proglacial Landscape of Western Greenland

Article

Feb 2016

In proglacial landscapes, such as western Greenland, eolian transport plays an important role for the influx of particulate material to lakes. On the basis of an analysis of a sediment profile and surface sediments from several lakes, we show that eolian activity has a strong influence on sediment deposition in time and space. Principal component analysis revealed that sediments that accumulated during periods with high eolian activity were enriched in zirconium-originating from coarse silt and sand fractions preferentially transported by wind-and depleted in rubidium. In addition, zirconium to rubidium ratios in the surface sediment of four additional lakes decreased with distance from the ice sheet. Finally, previously published data show that pH and alkalinity tend to be higher in lakes close to the front of the ice sheet, which we speculate is coupled to a larger supply of fresh eolian material. These findings demonstrate that lakes in proglacial landscapes may receive a substantial part of their sediment load through eolian deposition, and that this is especially true close to the glacial outwash plains along the ice margin.

Hydrological and meteorological investigations in a periglacial lake catchment near Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland – presentation of a new multi-parameter dataset

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2014

Few hydrological studies have been made in Greenland, other than on glacial hydrology associated with the ice sheet. Understanding permafrost hydrology and hydroclimatic change and variability, however, provides key information for understanding climate change effects and feedbacks in the Arctic landscape. This paper presents a new extensive and detailed hydrological and meteorological open access dataset, with high temporal resolution from a 1.56 km2 permafrost catchment with a lake underlain by a through talik close to the ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq region, western Greenland. The paper describes the hydrological site investigations and utilized equipment, as well as the data collection and processing. The investigations were performed between 2010 and 2013. The high spatial resolution, within the investigated area, of the dataset makes it highly suitable for various detailed hydrological and ecological studies on catchment scale. The dataset is availble for all users via the PANGAEA database, http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.836178. Please note this dataset is under review and recommended not to be used before the final version of the manuscript is accepted for publication.

Safety assessments undertaken using the BIOMASS methodology: lessons learnt and methodological enhancements

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2022

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing enhancements of methods for modelling in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The project used earlier published work from the IAEA biosphere modelling and assessment (BIOMASS) project to further develop methods and techniques. The task was supported by a parallel on-going project within the BIOPROTA forum. The output from the project is described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Here an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radioactive waste disposal with a summarised review of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology and the work that has been undertaken during the project. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of the biosphere component within the overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: review and identification of those parts of the original BIOMASS methodology that needed enhancement, discussions on lessons learned from applying the BIOMASS method, using real examples to assess the methodology and its usefulness, and writing of those parts of the methodology that were considered could benefit from refinement or for which new guidance was required to take account of scientific developments. The work has shown that the overall approach in the original BIOMASS methodology has proven sound. However, the enhanced version clarifies the need for an iterative and holistic approach with system understanding central to the approach. Specifically, experience, especially in site-specific contexts, has emphasised that adequate system understanding is essential in underpinning safety assessments for radioactive waste disposal. The integral role of the biosphere within safety assessment is also emphasised in the enhanced methodology.

Estimating land market values from real estate offers: A replicable method in support of biodiversity conservation strategies

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2018

While cost estimation is a very positive tool for spatial conservation prioritisation, there are few examples where costs (in monetary terms) are applied. We present a repeatable method to estimate and map field values in monetary terms using common correlative models. We modelled, with a resolution of 1 km2, the information obtained by several real estate’s agencies with a set of eleven environmental, climatic, and anthropogenic variables. Land cover was the main influencing factor, but further variables were affecting bids on field sales according to the socio-economic specificity of each administrative province. The estimated values were related to endemic plant species richness, their conservation status and altitudinal ranges. Richest areas in endemics have lower values given current market conditions and, within these endemic rich areas, values near the coast were generally higher than the rest of endemic-rich territories. Despite their limits, our method offers an alternative perspective on the challenges of simplifying the extrapolation of useful information for planning and disseminating the conservation of many ecosystem services providers.

Comparison of stable-element concentration ratios for freshwater macrobenthos in boreal and other regions with those from the Arctic (west Greenland)

Poster

Full-text available

Jun 2018

In this conference poster we compared water-to-whole body concentration ratios for benthic macroinvertebrates in lakes in west Greenland (Kangerlussuaq), Sweden (Forsmark and Laxemar sites) and in Finland (lakes Koskeljärvi, Lutanjärvi and Säkylän Pyhäjärvi). A large number of data on stable elements were considered as a proxy to long-lived radionuclides. In addition, the site-specific data were compared with some literature/handbook values. All in all, little differences were found but the data formed an interesting overall pattern. This may be due to the low number of samples and sites considered, though.

Application of an ecosystem model to evaluate the importance of different processes and food web structure for transfer of 13 elements in a shallow lake

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2017

In environmental risk assessments of nuclear waste, there is need to estimate the potential risks of a large number of radionuclides over a long time period during which the environment is likely to change. Usually concentration ratios (CRs) are used to calculate the activity concentrations in organisms. However, CRs are not available for all radionuclides and they are not easily scalable to the varying environment. Here, an ecosystem transport model of elements, which estimates concentrations in organisms using carbon flows and food transfer instead of CR is presented. It is a stochastic compartment model developed for Lake Eckarfjärden at Forsmark in Sweden. The model was based on available data on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes from the site and identifies 11 functional groups of organisms. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of 13 elements (Al, Ca, Cd, Cl, Cs, I, Ni, Nb, Pb, Se, Sr, Th, U) to various aquatic organisms, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particles (Kd PM) and upper sediment (Kd sed), and subsequent transfer in the foodweb. The modelled CRs for different organism groups were compared with measured CRs from the lake and literature data, and showed good agreement for many elements and organisms, particularly for lower trophic levels. The model is, therefore, proposed as an alternative to measured CR, though it is suggested to further explore active uptake, assimilation and elimination processes to get better correspondence for some of the elements. The benthic organisms (i.e. bacteria, microphytobenthos and macroalgae) were identified as more important than pelagic organisms for transfer of elements to top predators. The element transfer model revealed that most of the radionuclides were channelled through the microbial loop, despite the fact that macroalgae dominated the carbon fluxes in this lake. Thus, element-specific adsorption of elements to the surface of aquatic species, that may be food sources for organisms at higher trophic levels, needs to be considered in combination with generic processes described by carbon fluxes.

Landscape Forsmark – data, methodology and results for SR-Site

Technical Report

Full-text available

Mar 2011

Tobias Lindborg

This report presents an integrated description of the landscape at the Forsmark site during the succession from present conditions to the far future. It was produced as a part of the biosphere modelling within the SR-Site safety assessment. The report gives a description of input data, methodology and resulting models used to support the current understanding of the landscape used in SR-Site. It is intended to describe the properties and conditions at the site and to give information essential for demonstrating understanding.

Surface system Forsmark, site descriptive modeling

Technical Report

Full-text available

Jan 2010

Tobias Lindborg

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. SKB, has undertaken site characterization of two different areas, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, in order to find a suitable location for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The site characterization comprises both the bedrock and the surface systems. This report focuses on the site descriptive modelling of the surface system at Forsmark. The overall objective of this work has been to develop and document an integrated description of the surface system, based on available data from the complete site investigations. This description will serve as a basis for a site-adapted layout of the final repository, for assessment of the repository’s long-term radiological safety and to support the environmental impact assessment of the repository.

Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000 yr time perspective

Technical Report

Full-text available

Jan 2009

This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform some additional sensitivity studies, and also compare our scenarios to other existing model scenarios when possible. In addition to the modelling activities, an effort has been made to collect palaeoclimatic information by compiling various MIS 3 and LGM proxy data from different sources. An attempt to use part of this palaeoclimatic information to constrain the forcing conditions used in the climate models has been made. Other proxy data were used for model evaluation purposes. We have compared results from the global climate model with proxy records of sea-surface temperatures and with terrestrial records. The regional climate model results have been compared with existing terrestrial palaeoclimate records from Europe. The results show that the climate models produce climates for the three periods that are in broad agreement with proxy data and other climate model simulations. The resulting climates are also in qualitative agreement with the imposed extent of ice sheets and types of vegetation. In particular, we show that the results for the MIS 3 stadial are consistent with ice-free conditions in south-central Fennoscandia and that this climate is suitable for permafrost growth. The simulations show that there is a large range in possible climates for the Fennoscandian region in a 100,000 year time perspective. Excluding the glacial situation, annual mean temperatures for the Forsmark, Oskarshamn and Olkiluoto sites differ from MIS 3 to the future warm climate by 12–15°C. Correspondingly, annual mean precipitation is almost a factor two higher in the future warm climate compared to MIS 3 at these sites. This report documents forcing conditions and model results, both from the global and regional climate models as well as from the vegetation model. Results from the project in the form of modelled climate and vegetation data for different climatic extremes are available for further impact studies in other projects. In addition to this report, other publications have also resulted from the project, summarised in Appendix A.

Lisiecki, L. E. & Raymo, M. E. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic 18O records. Paleoceanography 20, PA1003

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2005

We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the "LR04" stack) of benthic δ 18 O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic δ 18 O stack comprised of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka, and we use its improved signal quality to identify 24 new marine isotope stages in the early Pliocene. We also present a new LR04 age model for the Plio-Pleistocene derived from tuning the δ 18 O stack to a simple ice model based on June 21 insolation at 65 • N. Stacked sedimentation rates provide additional age model constraints to prevent overtuning. Despite a conservative tuning strategy, the LR04 benthic stack exhibits significant coherency with insolation in the obliquity band throughout the entire 5.3 Myr and in the precession band for more than half of the record. The LR04 stack contains significantly more variance in benthic δ 18 O than previously published stacks of the late Pleistocene as the result of higher resolution records, a better alignment technique, and a greater percentage of records from the Atlantic. Finally, the relative phases of the stack's 41-and 23-kyr components suggest that the precession component of δ 18 O from 2.7–1.6 Ma is primarily a deep-water temperature signal and that the phase of δ 18 O precession response changed suddenly at 1.6 Ma.

A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed Benthic δ18O records

Article

Jan 2005

A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic 18O records

Article

Jan 2005

[1] We present a 5.3- Myr stack ( the " LR04'' stack) of benthic delta(18)O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic delta(18)O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka, and we use its improved signal quality to identify 24 new marine isotope stages in the early Pliocene. We also present a new LR04 age model for the Pliocene- Pleistocene derived from tuning the delta(18)O stack to a simple ice model based on 21 June insolation at 65degreesN. Stacked sedimentation rates provide additional age model constraints to prevent overtuning. Despite a conservative tuning strategy, the LR04 benthic stack exhibits significant coherency with insolation in the obliquity band throughout the entire 5.3 Myr and in the precession band for more than half of the record. The LR04 stack contains significantly more variance in benthic delta(18) O than previously published stacks of the late Pleistocene as the result of higher-resolution records, a better alignment technique, and a greater percentage of records from the Atlantic. Finally, the relative phases of the stack's 41- and 23- kyr components suggest that the precession component of delta(18)O from 2.7 - 1.6 Ma is primarily a deep- water temperature signal and that the phase of delta(18)O precession response changed suddenly at 1.6 Ma.

The latest ice recession and till deposits in northern Uppland, eastern central Sweden

Article