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Integrative Complexity of American and Soviet Foreign Policy Rhetoric. A Time-Series Analysis

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Philip E. Tetlock at University of Pennsylvania
Philip E. Tetlock
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Abstract

Used the integrative complexity coding system to analyze official American and Soviet foreign policy statements concerned with problems that bore directly on American-Soviet relations issued between 1945 and 1983. Time series (ARIMA) and 2-stage least squares analyses revealed that the integrative complexity of Soviet statements was a function of Soviet complexity levels in the past, American complexity levels in the present, Soviet military or political interventions in other countries, the successful culmination of American-Soviet negotiations, and American presidential elections. The integrative complexity of American statements was a function of American complexity levels in the past, Soviet complexity levels in the past, presidential elections, changes in presidential administrations, Soviet military or political interventions in other countries, American military or political interventions in other countries, and the successful culmination of American-Soviet negotiations. Findings are interpreted in terms of 2 complementary levels of analysis: the study of cognitive processes and the study of bargaining and impression management strategies. (77 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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... • more complex, dialectical reasoning (aspects of which are central to the notions of integrative complexity (Tetlock, 1985) and wisdom ) -i.e., recognize the uncertainty and qualify forecasts by expressing multidetermined nature of predictions and considering both positive and negative aspects of the same forecast; • an outsider viewpoint and consider base-rate information (rather than focus on the focal event alone; Kahneman & Tversky, 1982). ...
... Past work has employed a range of human-based coding strategies to characterize epistemic concerns that share family resemblance with the notion of dialectical reasoning -i.e., consideration/acceptance of seeming contradictions (for reviews, see Grossmann, 2018;Peng and Nisbett, 1999). In particular, there is a substantive body of scholarship on coding open-ended reflections and justifications for presence of integrative complexity -a measure of complex thinking that includes evaluative differentiation (i.e., consideration of a number of distinct and contradictory dimensions of a problem) and conceptual integration (i.e., development of complex connections among differentiated characteristics) (Suedfeld et al., 1992;Suedfeld and Tetlock, 1977;Tetlock, 1985). Here, the evaluative differentiation component is closely connected to the idea of dialectical thinking, and has also been linked to superior accuracy in forecasting tournaments . ...
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... However, most of the research on integrative complexity has used archived texts. For example, integrative complexity has been measured from speeches (Suedfeld, "fetlock, & Ramirez, 1977;Tetlock, 1983), diplomatic documents , interview transcripts (Tetlock, 1984), policy statements (Tetlock, 1983(Tetlock, , 1985Tetlock & Boettger, 1989;Walker & Watson, 1994), and personal letters (Porter & Suedfeld, 1981;Suedfeld & Bluck, 1993). ...
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Previous studies have found that the cognitive performance of government decision-makers declines in crises that result in war. This decline has been attributed to crisis-produced stress which leads to simplification of information processing. The present study tested the disruptive stress hypothesis in the context of Japan's decision for war in 1941. Two content analysis techniques, integrative complexity coding (Schroder et al.,) and cognitive mapping (Axelrod, 1976) were used to analyze the translated records of statements by key Japanese policy-makers. Comparisons between statements made in the early and late periods of the 1941 crisis yielded only weak evidence of cognitive simplification. Interestingly, however, the social context in which statements were made significantly affected the complexity of cognitive performance: Statements made in Liaison conterences (in which policies were formulated) were significantly less complex than statements made in Imperial conferences (in which policies were presented to the Emperor for approval). Theoretical and methodological implications of the results were discussed.
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An integrative complexity coding system was used to explore the relations between cognitive style and political ideology among US Supreme Court justices who served on the Court between 1964 and 1978. The integrative complexity of case opinions that Ss authored during their 1st terms on the Court and the overall liberalism–conservatism of their voting records throughout their tenure were assessed. Consistent with past work on cognitive style and political ideology, Ss with liberal and moderate voting records exhibited more integratively complex styles of thought in their early case opinions than did those with conservative voting records. Unexpectedly, these relationships between cognitive style and ideology were more powerful on cases involving economic conflicts of interest than on cases involving civil liberties and rights issues. Results remain significant after controlling for a variety of demographic and background characteristics of the Ss (e.g., age, religion, quality of law school attended) and characteristics of the judicial opinions scored for integrative complexity (unanimous or split-Court, majority–minority status of opinion). Possible explanations for the results and processes that limit the cross-issue generality of relationships between cognitive style and ideology are discussed. (60 ref)
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STABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE COMPLEXITY OF SENATORIAL DEBATE - TESTING THE COGNITIVE VERSUS RHETORICAL STYLE HYPOTHESES
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• Tested the cognitive vs rhetorical style hypothesis (conservatives have more simplistic rhetorical, not cognitive styles than liberals or moderates) by assessing the integrative complexity of 10 paragraph-sized statements of 81 senators in 5 US Congresses: 3 dominated by liberals and moderates (the 82nd, 94th, and 96th Congresses) and 2 dominated by conservatives (the 83rd and 97th Congresses). Results show that liberals and moderates were more complex than conservatives in the 82nd, 94th, and 96th Congresses but that these differences among ideological groups were much less pronounced in the 83rd and 97th Congresses. The change in pattern was due to sharp declines in the complexity of liberals and, to a lesser extent, moderates in conservative-dominated sessions, not to an increase in the complexity in conservatives. Conservatives displayed more traitlike stability in integrative complexity both within and across Congressional sessions. It is suggested that the integrative complexity of senatorial debate may be a joint product of relatively context-specific styles of political impression management and relatively stable cognitive styles of organizing the political world. (41 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved) • Tested the cognitive vs rhetorical style hypothesis (conservatives have more simplistic rhetorical, not cognitive styles than liberals or moderates) by assessing the integrative complexity of 10 paragraph-sized statements of 81 senators in 5 US Congresses: 3 dominated by liberals and moderates (the 82nd, 94th, and 96th Congresses) and 2 dominated by conservatives (the 83rd and 97th Congresses). Results show that liberals and moderates were more complex than conservatives in the 82nd, 94th, and 96th Congresses but that these differences among ideological groups were much less pronounced in the 83rd and 97th Congresses. The change in pattern was due to sharp declines in the complexity of liberals and, to a lesser extent, moderates in conservative-dominated sessions, not to an increase in the complexity in conservatives. Conservatives displayed more traitlike stability in integrative complexity both within and across Congressional sessions. It is suggested that the integrative complexity of senatorial debate may be a joint product of relatively context-specific styles of political impression management and relatively stable cognitive styles of organizing the political world. (41 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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Construct Validity in Psychological Test
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"Construct validation was introduced in order to specify types of research required in developing tests for which the conventional views on validation are inappropriate. Personality tests, and some tests of ability, are interpreted in terms of attributes for which there is no adequate criterion. This paper indicates what sorts of evidence can substantiate such an interpretation, and how such evidence is to be interpreted." 60 references. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).
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War, Peace, and Integrative Complexity Un Speeches on the Middle East Problem, 1947–1976
Article
  • Sep 1977
UN General Assembly speeches concerning the Middle East conflict made by representatives of Israel, Arab countries (Egypt and Syria), the USA, and the USSR were scored for integrative complexity. Speeches were sampled from twenty years between 1947 and 1976. Complexity of information-processing was significantly reduced in speeches made in months preceding the outbreak of war (1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973), except in the case of the USSR. Israel, which with the United States exhibited the highest levels of complexity during peacetime, showed the greatest reductions prior to war. The low level of complexity characteristic of Israeli and Arab speeches during 1976 may reflect the escalation of the Lebanese civil war or may be a predictor of a major outbreak of hostilities in the near future.
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