Small to medium-sized native ground-dwelling mammals are now extremely rare on the Cumberland Plain of Western Sydney. Following a hair tube record of the native Bush Rat (Rattus fuscipes) in Nurragingy Reserve in February 2013, we have been engaged by Blacktown City Council to undertake a Bush Rat recovery project in the reserve from January to December 2015. Council obtained funding for the project from Greater Sydney Local Land Services, through the Commonwealth Biodiversity Fund. The project involved: live-trapping and hair-tubing for Bush Rats to confirm their presence and to determine their distribution in the reserve; trapping and removal of introduced Black Rats (Rattus rattus) in the northern section of the reserve (competition and interference from Black Rats is known to be a major factor in depressing Bush Rat populations); and monitoring of introduced Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) activity and diet in the reserve to assess how much of a threat they pose to Bush Rats.
The only Bush Rat records obtained during the study were tentative identifications from two hair-tube samples in April 2015. Despite a large live-trapping effort (2730 trap-nights over four seasons), we were unable to catch any Bush Rats to positively confirm their presence in the reserve. Black Rat numbers were reduced by 90% on two 1-ha trapping grids in the northern section of the reserve between April and November. However, there was no corresponding increase in Bush Rats, unlike a similar study at Jervis Bay (Stokes et al. 2009), where a 70% reduction in Black Rat numbers on identical trapping grids resulted in a large increase in Bush Rat numbers and a shift in competitive dominance to Bush Rats, preventing Black Rats from re-establishing.
There are two possible explanations for the failure of Bush Rats to respond to culling of Black Rats at Nurragingy: there is, in fact, no Bush Rat population in the reserve (the hair identifications were in error or the population has since died out); or else the population is so small that it was unable to respond as rapidly and effectively as the Bush Rats at Jervis Bay. Bush Rats were much more numerous at Jervis Bay than at Nurragingy, even before removal of Black Rats, occurring at densities of 2-4 animals per 1-ha grid in the year before Black Rats were culled, whereas no Bush Rats were caught at Nurragingy at any stage during the study. If there is still a Bush Rat population at Nurragingy, it is tiny, making it hard to detect even with intensive trapping. The hair-tube success rate for Bush Rats was only 0.07%. Assuming that this is also the success rate for live-trapping Bush Rats in the reserve, it would mean that 4277 trap-nights would be required for a 95% probability of catching a Bush Rat, and 6576 trap-nights for a 99% probability. Thus, with such a small population, our live-trapping effort of 2730 trap-nights was still not enough to confidently conclude that there are no Bush Rats in the reserve.
Regarding methodology, the Nurragingy study showed that bandicoot-size cage traps are far more effective at catching Black Rats than standard Elliott traps. The trap-night success rate for Black Rats was more than 14 times greater for cage traps than for Elliott traps (4.3% versus 0.3%). However, Elliott traps are highly effective for Bush Rats, as shown in many studies elsewhere by ourselves and others. Elliott traps can therefore be used for targeted trapping of Bush Rats without the problem of too many captures of Black Rats rendering the traps unavailable for Bush Rats.
The study also provided data on Red Foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Nurragingy Reserve and how much of a threat they pose to any Bush Rat population in the reserve. Foxes were regularly active at night in the northern section of the reserve, being recorded there on at least 82% of nights during the study. The potential hunting pressure from foxes is high. However, the diet of the local foxes, from analysis of their scat contents, was found to be very mixed, including large quantities of seeds and other plant material and many invertebrates, as well as reptiles, birds and a variety of mammals, including mice, rats, rabbits, possums and deer (presumably feeding on carrion as well as taking live prey). The foxes were preying on rats, but probably opportunistically rather than specifically targeting them, since rats were represented in only 14% of the fox scats analysed. Rabbits were the most common mammalian prey (26% of scats) rather than rats. Predation by foxes, together with cats and dogs (both of which appear to be hunting in the reserve to some extent), poses a threat to any Bush Rat population in the reserve, particularly as the loss of just one or two animals could be critical for such a small population. However, Black Rats pose a greater threat, as indicated by the Stokes et al. (2009) study at Jervis Bay, and should be the management priority in any Bush Rat recovery program.
Following on from this study, the next stage for Bush Rat recovery in Nurragingy Reserve should be to confirm that there is still a Bush Rat population in the reserve. This study has demonstrated that bandicoot-size cage traps are an effective method of reducing Black Rat numbers. Fox control is also highly desirable, but for Bush Rat recovery it is secondary to control of Black Rats. The fox control method would be baiting rather than shooting, since Blacktown Police are unwilling to allow shooting in the reserve. If foxes are successfully controlled there may be an increase in the rabbit population and so rabbit control may need to be undertaken in conjunction with fox control. However, before undertaking further recovery actions, it is necessary to confirm that there is a Bush Rat population to recover, and to determine its distribution in the reserve. Since the population, if present, is very small, it will require intensive trapping before it can be concluded with 95% probability (1547 more trap-nights in addition to this study) or 99% probability (3846 more trap-nights) that Bush Rats are not present. Trapping should be carried out using standard Elliott traps since these are effective for Bush Rats but are avoided by Black Rats.