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How perceived uncertainties influence transitions; the case of micro-CHP in the Netherlands
Abstract
Transitions, or socio-technological transformations, towards sustainability can be considered as a long-term transformation at the level of society as a whole, which in turn consists of a sequence of short-term innovations. The direction and speed of transitions are largely determined by the collective innovation decisions of various actors. A crucial characteristic of transitions is that they involve many uncertainties. The uncertainties that actors perceive greatly influence their innovation decisions. Namely, perceived uncertainties might stimulate some actors to fulfill certain key activities that are crucial for achieving a transition, while blocking other actors from undertaking these activities. In order to understand and manage transitions, insight into the types of perceived uncertainties that dominate the innovation decisions is essential. Furthermore, we need to understand if perceived uncertainties block or stimulate transitions by analyzing how actors respond to perceived uncertainties.This article focuses on the first transition phase: the pre-development phase. An interesting case to study the role of uncertainties in this phase is the introduction of micro-CHP in the Netherlands. The main questions of this article are: Which types of perceived uncertainties are dominant for the innovation decisions related to micro-CHP in the Netherlands? How do actors react to the perceived uncertainties?The case results demonstrate that different types of uncertainties influence the innovation decisions of the involved actors. The most dominant sources of uncertainty are technological and political uncertainty. Furthermore, the case shows that responses to uncertainty vary largely between various types of actors. Perceived uncertainties seem to block some actors, but induce other actors in fulfilling key activities that are essential for achieving a transition. We discuss how these insights can be used for improving policy for stimulating transitions.
... Two broad themes relating to uncertainty emerged from this analysis. Following the work of Meijer et al. on how perceived uncertainties influence innovation decisions and transition processes (Meijer et al., 2007a(Meijer et al., , 2007bMeijer and Hekkert, 2007), we label these themes as resource uncertainty and technological uncertainty. Meijer et al.'s work has previously been applied to examine how uncertainty impacts farmer adoption of smart farming approaches (Eastwood and Renwick, 2020). ...
... The two forms of perceived uncertainty discussed aboveresource and technological uncertaintyare intertwined with ontological insecurity for the rice industry stakeholders in our study. They disrupt existing roles and routines and destabilise reliance on known outcomes, which may have the effect of delaying or even abandoning innovation decisions entirely (Meijer et al., 2007a). However, threats to ontological security were not simply accepted. ...
... Transitions involving the implementation of new technologies are recognised as being surrounded by uncertainty within a farming context (e.g., Koundouri et al., 2006;Moschini and Hennessy, 2001;Marra et al., 2003), and in other sectors (Meijer et al., 2006(Meijer et al., , 2007a. The transition from experiential to data-driven decision-making associated with smart farming is no different and creates considerable uncertainty for farmers (Eastwood et al., 2017;Eastwood and Renwick, 2020). ...
Smart farming technologies are primarily associated with the transformation of agricultural productivity. Despite this, empirical research focusing on farm-level application of smart farming reveals a more complex and nuanced picture characterised by considerable uncertainty over its implementation and use. In this paper we seek to extend farm-level research by investigating two questions: how do perceived uncertainties destabilise meso-scale actors' routines and practices that are critical for ‘supporting farmer learning about the nature of digital data and its interpretation’ (Eastwood et al., 2019: 8); and, in what ways do meso-scale actors seek to re-establish a sense of stability and, in doing so, manage the uncertainty associated with smart farming implementation, and technological change more broadly? To address these questions we investigate the findings from a qualitative study of 20 meso-scale actors involved in the planning and implementation of smart farming technology in the Australian rice industry through an ontological security lens. We refer to meso-scale actors as farm advisors and agronomists whom we argue play a critical role in the uptake of smart farming technology. In applying this lens we argue that the perceived uncertainties related to smart farming de-stabilise or de-securitise actors' day-to-day roles and routines, impacting on who they are and what they do. We then demonstrate that actors draw upon two specific cultural scripts as a way to re-securitise their uncertainty. The first script seeks to securitise resource uncertainty by drawing upon known discourses surrounding farmer adoption of technology, while the second reproduces the importance of technologies that are easy to adopt while downplaying the importance of smart farming technology. While at face value these scripts can appear to create barriers to smart farming adoption, we argue that they can be a catalyst for developing solutions to uncertainty in terms of making smart farming more workable at the farm-level.
... Suarez [23] defines five phases in the process of technological dominance: R&D build-up, technical feasibility, creating the market, decisive battle and post-dominance; emphasizing that both firmand environmental-level factors are important at each phase. Meijer et al. [24] discuss the different perceived uncertainties seen by different groups of actors when transitioning from the earliest phase. Key characteristics of emerging industries are uncertainty [25], the fact that different groups are involved in different phases [24], and the need for organizational structures [26] and competitive strategies [20] to evolve through the phases. ...
... Meijer et al. [24] discuss the different perceived uncertainties seen by different groups of actors when transitioning from the earliest phase. Key characteristics of emerging industries are uncertainty [25], the fact that different groups are involved in different phases [24], and the need for organizational structures [26] and competitive strategies [20] to evolve through the phases. ...
... Exceptions include Rogers' 'Valley of death' [78], Moore's 'Chasm' [79], and the 'milestones of technological dominance' identified by Suarez [23]. These transitions are characterized by changes in focus, activity and funding [24], and the emphasis on demonstrators of various types linked to the phase and transition boundaries provides a set of tangible intermediate milestones that may help to overcome these barriers. -Push-pull 'engine' of industrial emergence: demand and supply-side factors, and their interactions, are primary drivers that impact on the process of industrial emergence [33]. ...
The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries. This paper presents a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development. A full lifecycle perspective is included, emphasizing early stage phases associated with scientific and technological developments, together with key transitions between phases related to the conversion of scientific knowledge to technological capability, application, industrial activity and economic value. Roadmapping concepts are used to map industrial emergence phenomena from various perspectives that cover value creation and capture activities together with demand and supply-side factors. The framework has been tested by developing more than 25 diverse ‘emergence maps’ of historical industrial evolution, building confidence that the framework might be applicable to current and future emergence. Common characteristics of industrial emergence have been identified, including key events and milestones, focusing on a chain of demonstrators that delineate the various phases and transitions.
... By 2008, the TIS framework had been applied in several energy systems analyses (e.g. Hekkert, Harmsen, and de Jong 2007;Hekkert, Suurs, et al. 2007;Meijer, Hekkert, and Koppenjan 2007;Bergek, Jacobsson, and Sandén 2008;Negro, Hekkert, and Smits 2008;Hillman et al. 2008), but there have been relatively few studies of microgeneration technologies, where the energy consumer often has an important influence on technology development and deployment. The TIS framework is still undergoing conceptual development, particularly in terms of the understanding of specific system functions, and the relationship between functions. ...
... The technological innovation system (TIS) framework examines the generation, diffusion and utilisation of a particular technology by observing the interactions between actors, networks and institutions (Meijer, Hekkert, and Koppenjan 2007;Markard and Truffer 2008). TIS analyses are focused around functions as 'emergent properties of the interplay between actors and institutions' (Markard and Truffer 2008, 597). ...
... TIS analyses are focused around functions as 'emergent properties of the interplay between actors and institutions' (Markard and Truffer 2008, 597). TIS case studies interpret this interplay to derive key insights into how innovation processes can be influenced (Meijer, Hekkert, and Koppenjan 2007). Functional analysis in TIS facilitates the comparison of different case studies, so as to enable 'a more systematic method of mapping determinants of innovation', and ultimately more effective policy recommendations (Hekkert, Suurs, et al. 2007, 420). ...
Micro combined-heat-and-power (micro-CHP) technology has potential to contribute significantly to the UK's climate change strategy. This study applies a technological innovation systems (TIS) analysis to the UK domestic micro-CHP sector to better understand the dynamics of this emerging technology, identify policy options for enhanced system development, while also assessing the effectiveness of the TIS framework as an analytical tool. Interviews with key system actors are used to understand system functions, enabling an analysis of system development over time in terms of inter-functional relations, and a brief comparison with the Dutch micro-CHP system. Specific policy recommendations are made, including clarification of government ‘renewable’ vs ‘low-carbon’ climate change mitigation objectives, establishing dedicated targets, incentives and supports for adoption, installation and industry representation. A critique of the TIS framework highlights the dangers of selectivity with regard to key functional patterns, underdevelopment of consumer influences, and insularity with respect to wider influences on innovation.
... Suarez [23] defines five phases in the process of technological dominance: R&D build-up, technical feasibility, creating the market, decisive battle and post-dominance; emphasizing that both firmand environmental-level factors are important at each phase. Meijer et al. [24] discuss the different perceived uncertainties seen by different groups of actors when transitioning from the earliest phase. Key characteristics of emerging industries are uncertainty [25], the fact that different groups are involved in different phases [24], and the need for organizational structures [26] and competitive strategies [20] to evolve through the phases. ...
... Meijer et al. [24] discuss the different perceived uncertainties seen by different groups of actors when transitioning from the earliest phase. Key characteristics of emerging industries are uncertainty [25], the fact that different groups are involved in different phases [24], and the need for organizational structures [26] and competitive strategies [20] to evolve through the phases. ...
... Exceptions include Rogers' 'Valley of death' [78], Moore's 'Chasm' [79], and the 'milestones of technological dominance' identified by Suarez [23]. These transitions are characterized by changes in focus, activity and funding [24], and the emphasis on demonstrators of various types linked to the phase and transition boundaries provides a set of tangible intermediate milestones that may help to overcome these barriers. -Push-pull 'engine' of industrial emergence: demand and supply-side factors, and their interactions, are primary drivers that impact on the process of industrial emergence [33]. ...
The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new industries and business models. This paper presents a preliminary framework for mapping industrial emergence, based on roadmapping principles, in order to understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena. The focus at this stage is on historical examples of industrial emergence, with the preliminary framework based on observations from 20 dasiaquick scanpsila maps, one of which is used to illustrate the framework. The learning from these historical cases, combined with further industrial consultation and literature review, will be used to develop practical methods for strategy and policy application. The paper concludes by summarising key learning points and further work needed to achieve these outcomes.
... Managers perceiving uncertainty associated with a decision are less likely to make that decision and justify a "waitand-see" approach, especially when a decision involves a proactive response to an emerging issue such as global warming requiring significant firm-level resource commitments (Lee & Klassen, 2016, p. 579). In the literature on sustainability transitions, scholars have argued that uncertainty may prevent actors from engaging in activities committing to sustainability (e.g., Meijer et al., 2007). Since there is not enough information in uncertain or ambiguous environments, and gathering information cannot always reduce uncertainty, firms are not able to decide on a best response (Bennett & Lemoine, 2014, p. 314;Meijer et al., 2007, p. 522) and are therefore not likely to respond with substantive actions. ...
... One of the limitations of our paper is that we use data on firms' perception of turbulence. Even though the literature has offered valid reasons for using such a perceptive view (Bourgeois, 1980;Meijer et al., 2007), future studies could use more objective measures of turbulence. In our dataset, the advantage of using firms' perceptions of the environment was also that these perceptions were followed in annual and sustainability reports by descriptions of firms' actions as a response to the turbulence. ...
Firms are increasingly operating in turbulent environments in which unpredictable change is driven by causes such as climate change and economic crises. In this paper, we study how firms perceive environmental turbulence and respond with four types of actions. We distinguish between actions creating economic value for the firm and actions creating sustainable value for society and the environment and between substantive and symbolic actions with only the former changing firms' strategies, structures, and processes. We built a unique dataset on large European firms and their 470 responses to turbulence from 2017 until 2022. We show that in volatile and complex environments, in which rapid change occurs but information is available, firms respond with substantive actions. In uncertain and ambiguous environments that lack information, firms respond with symbolic actions. These findings hold for responses that aim to create both economic and sustainable value. However, these findings change when firms acquire environmental, social, and governance (ESG) capabilities. With high and improving ESG capabilities, firms are more likely to respond with sustainable substantive actions, even when they perceive their environments to be uncertain. We contribute to the literature on organizational capabilities and corporate environmental responsiveness by showing that firms with superior and improving ESG capabilities increase their substantive commitments to sustainable development and are less inclined to base their responses on their perception of turbulence.
... Decisions about which technological areas to focus investment on and which strategic options to pursue are challenging, owing to the complex and dynamic nature of market, technological and industrial developments taking place, compounded by scarcity of information and uncertainty of forecasts (Phaal et al. 2011). Meijer, Hekkert and Koppenjan (2007) discuss the different perceived uncertainties seen by different groups of actors when transitioning from the earliest phase. Key characteristics of emerging industries are uncertainty (Macdonald 1985), the fact that different groups are involved in different phases (Meijer, Hekkert and Koppenjan 2007). ...
... Meijer, Hekkert and Koppenjan (2007) discuss the different perceived uncertainties seen by different groups of actors when transitioning from the earliest phase. Key characteristics of emerging industries are uncertainty (Macdonald 1985), the fact that different groups are involved in different phases (Meijer, Hekkert and Koppenjan 2007). The anticipated (disruptive) impacts on markets and on society are more difficult to foresee than a steady and incremental innovation process . ...
This study approaches the identification and prediction of transformative research topics by using the concepts of catastrophe theory. Based on the evaluation model of catastrophe theory, 11 indicators were selected for four different aspects: growth rate, economic and social influence, network characteristics and the degree of uncertainty in evaluating an emerging topics' trans-formative potential. The stem cell research field is used as case study. The results of this study show that there are differences between various emerging research topics (ERTs) within the stem cell research field and their potential ability to induce changes and innovation. The method developed in this article is able to identify and predict the future transformative potential of ERTs and provides reference information for scientific and technological planning, industrial policy and scientific research management.
... Hendriks, 2009;Meadowcroft, 2009;Smith and Kern, 2009;Smith and Stirling, 2010); and learning and experimentation (e.g. Van de Kerkhof and Wieczorek, 2005;Meijer et al., 2007;Shove and Walker, 2007;Foxon and et al., 2009). It can be noted that these three themes correspond to three of the five evaluation criteria on governance for sustainable development used in this study, possibly supporting their selection. ...
... Many scholars argue that the element of learning and experimentation should be further studied and specified (Van de Kerkhof and Wieczorek, 2005;Meijer et al., 2007;Shove and Walker, 2007;Foxon and et al., 2009;Meadowcroft, 2009;Voss et al., 2009;Voss and Bornemann, 2011). They propose mainly that clarity is needed about: indicators for monitoring experiments; the frequency of selection from experiments; identification of early signs of fruitful and unfruitful trajectories; and the extent to which selection criteria for evaluation of the experiments should be grounded in the debate on sustainable development (Shove and Walker, 2007;Meadowcroft, 2009;Voss et al., 2009;Voss and Bornemann, 2011). ...
This dissertation began with a desire to better understand the conceptual and empirical contexts for governance for sustainable development. How does current research define and explain governance for sustainable development? In line with established research, the present study takes up sustainable development as conceptualised and implemented using modes of governance which differ in character and in orientation towards steering and the goal of sustainable development. Like sustainable development, the concept of governance is under debate. Here, the 1987 WCED Brundtland Report definition is taken as a starting point: “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (1987, p. 1 of Chapter 2). Governance is understood as the act or manner of steering societal developments by public and/or private actors towards collective goals. A mode of governance for sustainable development is defined here as a type of steering arrangement with a certain institutional configuration (including public and/or private actors and different types of institutional relations) that is intended to influence societal changes towards sustainable development.
The research focuses on three such modes of governance: adaptive management, transition management and payments for environmental services (PES). These have been selected due to their prominence in the discourse on governance for sustainable development. Adaptive management refers to efforts to enable a social-ecological system to maintain itself over long periods through learning-by-doing and cooperation, and efforts to enhance the adaptive capacity of a system to respond to changing circumstances. Transition management is based on innovation, experimentation and learning, with an orientation towards a long-term vision; it aims to fundamentally alter the structure of a socio-technological system in order to prevent environmental crisis. PES describes efforts to make environmental conservation economically viable by accounting for and preventing negative environmental externalities and by contributing to sustainable livelihoods.
Research for this dissertation has found no academic studies that have comparatively examined the selected modes of governance for sustainable development based on empirical analysis. Such analysis can help to understand how the selected modes work in practice and whether they assist in a real-world context in moving towards sustainable development. This study achieves this by examining practical experience with
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interventions in accordance with the three selected modes of governance as applied in the Dutch fen landscape.
Research aim
The present study aims to gain greater insight into the key challenges arising in steering towards sustainable development. It achieves this aim by:
Analysing three different modes of governance – adaptive management, transition management and PES – according to their steering mechanisms and orientation towards sustainable development;
Evaluating the three modes according to a set of criteria for governance for sustainable development;
Analysing practical experiences with the selected modes in the Dutch fen landscape.
... The CHP which are connected to the electrical network may result in overvoltage, voltage sag, power factor fluctuation, harmonics pollution and imbalance of the system voltage [46], [47]. The high penetration of grid-connected CHP system often causes increment of heat, andelectricity demand might affect the safety and quality of electric power supply [47]–[49]. ...
... The CHP which are connected to the electrical network may result in overvoltage, voltage sag, power factor fluctuation, harmonics pollution and imbalance of the system voltage [46], [47]. The high penetration of grid-connected CHP system often causes increment of heat, andelectricity demand might affect the safety and quality of electric power supply [47]–[49]. CHP operation had been studied by varying heat storage temperature [50]. In the study, the controller was operatedfor at least 30 minutes until the maximum heat storage temperature was achieved. ...
Recently, emerging technologies such as Photovoltaic system (PVs), Electric Vehicle (EV), micro Combined Heat Pump (μCHP) and Electric Heat Pump (EHP) have become preferable choices as means to address the climate change challenge. However, these emerging technologies often suffer from intermittency issues such as solar radiation variation and EV charging. The increasing penetration of such technologies in the distribution network has the potential to cause network problems. Hence, the analysis of the impact of these emerging technologies on distribution network is crucial, particularly by considering its intermittent nature. Therefore, this paper presents a review on the uncertainty nature of emerging technologies, followed by the Monte Carlo simulation approach that can be used to analyze the problems. The analysis focuses on the effects of different time resolution on two aspects--voltage problem and utilization level index. Results indicate that the time resolution strongly correlates with the voltage problem. High fluctuations visible at short time intervals are subjected to smoothing as the time interval increases. However, the utilization index level is relatively unaffected at different time resolutions.
... But public policy can also proactively support social innovation and the necessary structural changes. Policymakers may aim to reduce a range of uncertainties that serve as barriers to different actors, for example uncertainty about: available resources; the feasibility of adopting the innovation; the relationship between the innovation and the structures in which it will become embedded; or the risk perceived by both the innovators and adopters (Van de Ven and Polley, 1992;Meijer et al., 2007). ...
... Consequently, the Inuit communities along with the government entered a release phase. The government created a policy to determine the issues that were at the crux of the difficulties and to find economic development ideas for the Inuit: a process described as creating opportunities for 'learning by searching' and 'learning by interacting' (Meijer et al., 2007). ...
The role of social innovation and social entrepreneurship in addressing complex problems has increasingly gained traction in policy-making circles with policy practitioners’ interest piqued about how governments may best support such innovations (e.g. PRI, 2010). Various governments are attempting to support social innovation through a variety of means. For instance, the Office of Civil Society in the UK and the Australian Centre for Social Innovation are recent attempts by these national governments formally to institutionalize the fostering of social entrepreneurs and social enterprises. Other national governments have chosen simply to promote the ‘production’ side of innovation, by funding research and development, specifically for the technology sectors (Nelson, 1993). But while there is a growing body of grey literature that mirrors policy practitioners’ own interest in this field (e.g. Leadbeater, 2007), scholarship within the social innovation and social entrepreneurship community has largely neglected the role of public policy in supporting or hindering social innovation (for an exception, see Chapman et al., 2007).
... But public policy can also proactively support social innovation and the necessary structural changes. Policymakers may aim to reduce a range of uncertainties that serve as barriers to different actors, for example uncertainty about: available resources; the feasibility of adopting the innovation; the relationship between the innovation and the structures in which it will become embedded; or the risk perceived by both the innovators and adopters (Van de Ven and Polley, 1992;Meijer et al., 2007). ...
... Consequently, the Inuit communities along with the government entered a release phase. The government created a policy to determine the issues that were at the crux of the difficulties and to find economic development ideas for the Inuit: a process described as creating opportunities for 'learning by searching' and 'learning by interacting' (Meijer et al., 2007). ...
... · the perceived risk (market adoption risk, exit risk, technology risk, people risk, and regulatory risk) of investment in energy technologies · the perceived returns in energy VC investments · in an evolutionary perspective, the maturity of energy as a VC investment sector (Wüstenhagen and Teppo, 2006, p. 63) The above factors can be addressed by a taxonomy in which uncertainty about domains important to new renewable energy technologies are investigated. The following taxonomy relies heavily on work by Meijer and colleagues (2005;2007a;2007b), Teppo and Wüstenhagen (2006) and Jacobsson and Bergek (2004). ...
... Competitive uncertainty concerns the characteristics and actions of competitors and what impact they will have on the competitive position of the firm (Meijer et al., 2005;2007b). The possibility of reaping first mover advantages suggests close monitoring of competitors. ...
... They also argue that environmental regulations limit the options for environmental innovation: environmental regulation is said to reduce the time to find an optimal solution (Rothwell and Zegveld, 1981;Rothwell, 1992), to decrease the freedom to innovate and to increase the bureaucracy (Braun and Wield, 1994). Finally, it is argued that managers of firms are uncertain about the regulation (Meijer et al., 2006;Marcus, 1981;Rothwell, 1992) and the behaviour of the regulators (Meijer et al., 2006;Marcus, 1981;Rothwell and Zegveld, 1981;Gunningham and Sinclair, 1998). As a consequence of these aspects, managers develop risk-avoiding behaviour, resulting in less environmental innovation. ...
... They also argue that environmental regulations limit the options for environmental innovation: environmental regulation is said to reduce the time to find an optimal solution (Rothwell and Zegveld, 1981;Rothwell, 1992), to decrease the freedom to innovate and to increase the bureaucracy (Braun and Wield, 1994). Finally, it is argued that managers of firms are uncertain about the regulation (Meijer et al., 2006;Marcus, 1981;Rothwell, 1992) and the behaviour of the regulators (Meijer et al., 2006;Marcus, 1981;Rothwell and Zegveld, 1981;Gunningham and Sinclair, 1998). As a consequence of these aspects, managers develop risk-avoiding behaviour, resulting in less environmental innovation. ...
The relation between environmental policy and innovation is complex. This paper aims to gain insight into the way accumulation of policy measures, or in other words, the increase of policy pressure, affects research activities and eco-efficiency. Three environmental domains have been researched for the Dutch paper and board industry: wastewater, waste and energy. Three trends (1980–2003) are identified for these topics: (1) development of environmental policy; (2) number research projects started and (3) eco-efficiency. We argue that if existing solutions and knowledge are not sufficient to reach the objectives, research activities will take place before eco-efficiency is improved. Moreover, we argue that an increase in policy pressure can cause competition between policy instruments. This may result in a smoothed and delayed increase in research activities (if existing knowledge is insufficient) and eco-efficiency improvement. This delayed eco-efficiency improvement was observed for wastewater and waste. It was not observed for energy efficiency.
... Meijer et al. adapted the original W&H framework in order to classify perceived uncertainties in socio-technological transformations (Meijer, 2008;Meijer et al., 2006Meijer et al., , 2007. As a result of this shift in the object of study, Meijer et al. (2006) made modifications to the location dimension and redefined the framework to apply it to study perceived uncertainties. ...
... Object of study was the role of perceived uncertainties on entrepreneurial decision making Meijer et al. (2006Meijer et al. ( , 2007 and Meijer (2008) Starts from the framework of Meijer (2008) and changes the level dimension using Courtney (2001) Level dimension was perceived to be unclear Fijnvandraat (2008) Adds two dimensions (qualification of knowledge base and value-ladenness of choice), and expands location dimension with additional locations Dimensions were implicit in Walker et al. (2003); now they are made explicit. Furthermore, the object of study is the entire modelbased decision support process, making these dimensions more relevant Van der Sluijs et al. (2003) and Janssen et al. (2005) A reworking of the entire framework. ...
Uncertainty is of paramount importance in modern day decision making. In response to this, it has been suggested that policy analysts have to be more careful in communicating the uncertainties that are inherent in policy advice. To support policy analysts in identifying uncertainties and communicating these uncertainties to decision makers, an uncertainty matrix was proposed by Walker et al. (2003), which synthesised various taxonomies, frameworks and typologies of uncertainties from different decision support fields. Since its publication, this framework has been applied to different domains. As a result, the framework has undergone changes resulting in a proliferation of uncertainty frameworks. This proliferation runs counter to the purpose of the original framework. This paper presents an extensive review of the literature that builds on Walker et al. (2003). In light of this, a synthesis is presented, which can be used to assess and communicate uncertainties in model-based policy analysis studies.
... Dominant designs (Utterback, 1994;Murmann and Frenken, 2006) are often the product of this narrowing of technological choice, with complementary technologies based on platform architectures (Gawer and Cusumano, 2002). Although these processes lead to reduced variety and options in the system, they have the positive effect of reducing technological and market uncertainties (Meijer et al., 2007;Tikkanen, 2008), with it posited that science, technology, application and market demonstrators play a significant role in the reduction of these uncertainties . ...
... As the variety and number of events related to scientific and technological development decreases over time as technologies and products are subject to selection processes, so too does technological and market uncertainty (Meijer et al., 2007;Tikkanen, 2008). Demonstrators have been central to the reduction of technological and market uncertainty during the emergence of the DoD inkjet industry. ...
Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to investigate how supply and demand interact during industrial emergence.
Design/methodology/approach
– The paper builds on previous theorising about co-evolutionary dynamics, exploring the interaction between supply and demand in a study of the industrial emergence of the commercial inkjet cluster in Cambridge, UK. Data are collected through 13 interviews with professionals working in the industry.
Findings
– The paper shows that as new industries emerge, asynchronies between technology supply and market demand create opportunities for entrepreneurial activity. In attempting to match innovative technologies to particular applications, entrepreneurs adapt to the system conditions and shape the environment to their own advantage. Firms that successfully operate in emerging industries demonstrate the functionality of new technologies, reducing uncertainty and increasing customer receptiveness.
Research limitations/implications
– The research is geographically bounded to the Cambridge commercial inkjet cluster. Further studies could consider commercial inkjet from a global perspective or test the applicability of the findings in other industries.
Practical implications
– Technology-based firms are often innovating during periods of industrial emergence. The insights developed in this paper help such firms recognise the emerging context in which they operate and the challenges that need to overcome.
Originality/value
– As an in depth study of a single industry, this research responds to calls for studies into industrial emergence, providing insights into how supply and demand interact during this phase of the industry lifecycle.
... As opposed to this predominantly negative view of regulatory uncertainty from an investment perspective, others point to the fact that uncertainty also leaves room for innovation. Jauch and Kraft [47], for example, argue that an uncertain environment might help actors to be more proactive and innovative [60,58,30]. In the history of information and communication technologies, business models based upon new technologies such as radio or cable television typically created and exploited regulatory uncertainty; often, innovative business models were in conflict with extant regulatory structures and became legalized only retroactively (see e.g. ...
... [86,20]), the role of regulatory uncertainty in obstructing or stimulating business model innovation has rarely been considered. As an exception, Meijer and colleagues [60] explicitly study actors' perceptions of different sources of uncertainty to understand innovation decisions better, and find that uncertainty seems to block some but inspire others to achieve a transition. ...
Inspired by new digital technologies, diverse actors in cultural and creative industries propagate conflicting visions of how to adequately innovate – or rather preserve and strictly enforce – copyright-related business models, which has resulted in substantial amounts of regulatory uncertainty. Looking at a decade of regulatory discourse at industry events in the popular music industry in Germany, we investigate how these actors make sense of and strategically shape this uncertainty in the process of industry transformation. Our longitudinal argumentative discourse analysis reveals cycles of regulatory propaganda of two discourse coalitions that do not engage in debate, but aim to find support for competing business models among regulators and the public. Organizing, canceling, and participating in industry events are discursive strategies used effectively to transport their claims by both industry lobbyists and challenging actors, but industry incumbents are failing to use these sites for testing out and introducing new business models. We conclude that regulatory struggles, not least at industry events, mediate between disruptive technologies and business model innovation.
... However, previous research on uncertainty mostly focused on distinctive influences of uncertainty on either the development of innovations (Griffin and Hauser 1996;Mullins and Sutherland 1998), or the adoption of innovations (Marra, Pannell et al. 2003;Doraszelski 2004), thereby creating insufficient insights on the influence of perceived uncertainty on the complete process of the transition. Recently, Meijer (2007a) has made significant progress in using perceived uncertainty to analyse transition dynamics. However, her studies still focus more on either the strategic responses of individual actor types (Meijer 2007a), thereby ignoring the influence of the strategic responses on the transition, or on the influence of the uncertainty-strategy pattern on transition development but only from the view of entrepreneurs (i.e. ...
... Recently, Meijer (2007a) has made significant progress in using perceived uncertainty to analyse transition dynamics. However, her studies still focus more on either the strategic responses of individual actor types (Meijer 2007a), thereby ignoring the influence of the strategic responses on the transition, or on the influence of the uncertainty-strategy pattern on transition development but only from the view of entrepreneurs (i.e. technology developers, specifically suppliers of the technology, and adopters, the buyers and users of a technology) (Meijer 2007b), thereby ignoring influences from other actor types. ...
Abstract The negative impact of our current energy system on the environment, has led to the search for more,renewable,energy,sources. Although an increase in markets,for sustainable technologies has been observed, the change of the total fossil fuel regime towards,sustainable energy,has been,very slow. To effectively stimulate,the development,and,diffusion of renewable,technologies,more,insight is needed regarding the underlying mechanism,of such transitions. This study increases insights on transition dynamics,by linking strategic decision making,of individual actors to the
... First of all, a distinction was made between different sources of uncertainty. Since previous research has suggested that entrepreneurs react differently to different sources of uncertainty (Meijer, Hekkert et al. 2007a), it is important to identify which uncertainty sources play a key role and how these uncertainty sources influence entrepreneurial action. An (Meijer, Hekkert et al. 2006;Meijer, Hekkert et al. 2007a;Meijer 2008), the following set of uncertainty sources is proposed: technological, resource, competitive, supplier, consumer and political uncertainty (see Table 1). ...
... Since previous research has suggested that entrepreneurs react differently to different sources of uncertainty (Meijer, Hekkert et al. 2007a), it is important to identify which uncertainty sources play a key role and how these uncertainty sources influence entrepreneurial action. An (Meijer, Hekkert et al. 2006;Meijer, Hekkert et al. 2007a;Meijer 2008), the following set of uncertainty sources is proposed: technological, resource, competitive, supplier, consumer and political uncertainty (see Table 1). ...
... These are also similar to the 'stage-gate' models that are widely used to manage innovation and new product development at the firm level [20] and see firms actively attempt to reduce uncertainty [46]. As a consequence, not only do these process lead to reduced variety and options in the system, but technological and market uncertainties also decrease as the new industry emerges [54,81]. ...
... Initial conditions are important and will impact upon the trajectory followed [48,63]. 2. Usually within emergence there is a reduction of uncertainties in different areas as time progresses (shown by a narrowing funnel) [54], for a given scope (i.e. within boundaries) [81]. ...
The need to stimulate, identify and nurture new industries is a prominent challenge in advanced economies. While basic science represents a valuable source of new ideas and opportunities, it can often take decades before this science finally finds application in the market. While numerous studies have to date focused on aspects of industrial evolution, (e.g. innovation, internationalisation, new product introduction, technological lifecycles and emerging technologies), far fewer have focused on technology-based industrial emergence. It is clear that if assistance is to be provided to firms and industrial policymakers attempting to navigate industrial emergence then we need an improved understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of this phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper reviews published work from a range of disparate disciplines - evolutionary theory, social construction of technology (SCOT), complexity science, industrial dynamics and technology management - to identify these dynamics. Through this review we conceptualise industrial emergence as a co-evolutionary process in which nonlinear dynamics operate. Industrial emergence is sensitive to the initial availability of resources and the market applications, with growth dependent on the supply-demand coupling, agents' actions to reduce uncertainty and catalytic events. Through synthesizing these key dynamics we go on to propose a conceptual model for industrial emergence.
... There may also be political or industry uncertainty over use of VF due to socio-ethical concerns and use of the technology will be dependent on animal welfare legislation. The main actors to share knowledge and aid with understanding legitimacy (#14) (Meijer et al. 2007) of VF currently were identified as being primarily in the commercial domain, with retailers being the main source of information for farmers about issues associated with VF. However, the Delphi responses also highlighted the importance of socio-ethical issues for technological legitimacy, and this may require greater inclusion of public or industry-good research. ...
The use of virtual fencing (VF) in pasture-grazed farm systems is currently close to commercial reality but there are no studies applying the principles of responsible research and innovation, such as foresighting, to this technology. This paper reports results of a study aimed at foresighting potential implications associated with virtual fencing of cattle. A Delphi method was used to survey the opinions of farming practitioners and researchers, using pasture-grazed cattle farming in New Zealand as a case study. The key benefits were identified as environmental protection, improved feed allocation, access to previously unavailable grazing areas, labour savings and individual animal management. The five most important potential barriers identified were device reliability, farmer perception of a value proposition, ethical issues related to community perception of negative animal welfare, lack of feed budgeting skills of farmers, and excessive training time. We suggest that more knowledge is needed on ethical issues associated with VF, including understanding public opinions of such technology developments. We suggest that development and use of VF has been focussed primarily on technical features and user benefits and needs to include consideration of wider socio-ethical principles to ensure responsible innovation processes. The findings from this study will aid focussed research and development to incorporate ethically acceptable development alongside technical factors. Share link for online access: https://rdcu.be/caSPr
... The most common interpretation of uncertainty in the extant literature on projects is the risk and/or uncertainty caused by unreliable information or lack thereof (Chapman, 2006;Kutsch and Hall, 2005); novel, immature or unproven technology (Meijer et al, 2007), project complexity (Williams, 2005;Floricel and Miller, 2001) and other unpredictable factors. A very common mistake in the management of construction projects is to overlook the uncertain characteristic of the project environment and believe that projects are deterministic (Sanderson, 2012). ...
... Meijer et al. (2007b) describes a framework for analyzing "perceived uncertainty" in the early stage of an innovation (Figure 1). Few empirical studies have applied the innovation uncertainty framework to case studies (Meijer et al., 2007a;Roper and Tapinos, 2016); therefore, the novelty of our study is in relation to both the empirical survey of uncertainty factors and explaining longitudinal adoption trends. FIGURE 1 | How the primary processes are linked to six sources of uncertainty (adapted from Meijer et al., 2006). ...
There are increasing opportunities to use smart farming technologies for improved management of farming systems. However, there is limited understanding of how the potential can be translated into effective use in the farming sector. Previous studies have highlighted the role that uncertainty plays in technological innovation systems. In this paper, we present the results of an international survey investigating the impact of innovation uncertainty on adoption of a smart farming technology, automatic milking systems (AMS). The objective of this study was to review adoption of AMS internationally and propose lessons for developing institutional knowledge and effective networks of practice in emerging smart farming innovation systems. We used an online survey of AMS experts globally and received 81 completed survey responses. The main countries represented were Canada, The Netherlands, USA, Denmark, and the UK. Respondents identified a range of adoption trends in their country and some of the reasons behind these adoption profiles were suppression of uptake due to low milk prices, financial markets, and issues with early installations and perceptions of these issues by other farmers. In terms of the impact of uncertainty, technological uncertainty was historically an important issue around the early development of AMS, with decommissioning occurring in some cases due to perceived technology issues. Political uncertainty also impacted adoption, with implications of food safety regulations or rules around herd testing systems. Our study highlighted the potential impact of negative experiences associated with new technologies from farmers who struggle with the adaptation process as such occurrences may act to stall the uptake of smart farming technologies. If public policy organizations are to realize the desired impacts of smart farming technology, there needs to be greater focus on understanding where (and which) technologies can have an actual impact on farm as opposed to technologies that only create greater farmer distrust and uncertainty. Our study highlights that to reduce uncertainty with emerging smart technologies, greater public and private R&D collaboration is required to foster knowledge development and exchange.
... Although a substantial, long-standing scientific debate widely recognizes that the decisions and actions of entrepreneurs occur in the presence of uncertainty (e.g., Engel et al., 2014;Meijer et al., 2007;McMullen and Shepherd, 2006;Bhide, 2000;Knight, 1921), the debate focuses on the antecedents and consequences of entrepreneurial decision-making and action under uncertainty in new venture developments (e.g., Podoynitsyna et al., 2013;Mckelvie et al., 2011;Sarasvathy et al., 2014;Sarasvathy, 2001) and proposes tools for the management of uncertainties in start-ups (e.g., Loch et al., 2008). Notwithstanding, the literature has remained largely mute on the question of how entrepreneurs cope with collective uncertainties that affect different actors in the innovation ecosystem. ...
Radically innovative products and services are frequently developed and commercialized by new ventures. In this context, entrepreneurs may face the challenge of coordinating a complex network of actors in the presence of individual and collective uncertainties. Previous literature on entrepreneurship has focused on how entrepreneurs manage individual uncertainties (those that affect a single firm) rather than collective uncertainties that also affect members of the innovation ecosystem, which in turn may fundamentally affect the survival and growth of new ventures. Drawing on five longitudinal, inductive, in-depth case studies of start-ups and their innovation ecosystems, we find that current approaches for coping with individual uncertainties do not consider the impacts of uncertainties and actions on the innovation ecosystem partners. In that sense, entrepreneurs themselves may contribute to the propagation of uncertainties in the innovation ecosystem. We also identify processes by which entrepreneurs manage collective uncertainties in the innovation ecosystem, i.e., perceiving collective uncertainties, bridging uncertainties, conducting collective learning experiments and building a common template. This study improves understanding of how entrepreneurs act in uncertain environments.
... Although a substantial, long-standing scientific debate widely recognizes that the decisions and actions of entrepreneurs occur in the presence of uncertainty (e.g., Engel et al., 2014, Meijer et al., 2007, McMullen and Shepherd, 2006, Bhide, 2000, Knight, 1921, the debate focuses on the antecedents and consequences of entrepreneurial decision-making and action under uncertainty in new venture developments (e.g., Podoynitsyna et al., 2013, Sarasvathy et al., 2014, Sarasvathy, 2001 and proposes tools for the management of uncertainties in startups (e.g., Loch et al., 2008). Notwithstanding, the literature has remained largely mute on the question of how entrepreneurs cope with collective uncertainties that affect different actors in the innovation ecosystem. ...
... Th e German case was investigated in depth by Weber (1999Weber ( , 2002 and Walz (1994). Th e situation in the Netherlands was studied among others by Blok (1993), Weber et al. (2000), Raven (2007), Raven and Verbong (2007), Meijer et al. (2007). 10 Interestingly enough, a shift to relocalisation of energy supply can be observed, with local authorities buying back their local grids and power generation units from the large operators. ...
Stewart Russell's research work on combined heat and power/district heating (CHP/DH) in the UK was among the first empirical contributions to demonstrate that technological change is not just determined by seemingly objective technical and economic performance characteristics, but rather the result of social choices. His rich conceptual thinking is reconstructed in a coherent framework, and its explanatory power explored by analysing the innovation diffusion paradox of CHP/DH: in spite of very similar technical and economic characteristics, the patterns of innovation and diffusion differ significantly across countries. To this end, the evolution of CHP/DH in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands is compared. Russell's ideas can be regarded as a predecessor of recent multi-level approaches to the analysis of socio-technical change. He put much emphasis on studying power relations for explaining the (non-) occurrence of socio-technical change; an issue that is still debated today.
... Termo Literatura fuzzy front end Khurana & Rosenthal (1997), Reinertsen (1999), Montoya-Weiss & O'Driscoll (2000), Flint (2002), Kim & Wilemon (2002), Alam (2006), Magnusson (2009), Frishammar et al. (2011), Kurkkio (2011), Brentani & Reid (2012) front end of innovation Koen et al. (2001), Poskela & Martinsuo (2009), Martinsuo & Poskela (2011), Bertels et al. (2011), Hannola & Ovaska (2011) front end process Nobelius & Trygg (2002) front end of new product development Oliveira & Rozenfeld (2010) early phases of innovation Flanagin (2000), Brolø (2009), Muhdi et al. (2011) pre-development Cooper (1988), Toledo et al. (2008), Meijer et al. (2007), Hammedi et al. (2011) ...
O front end da inovação é o primeiro subprocesso do processo da inovação. Esse subprocesso reúne as atividades realizadas antes da proposição e aprovação de um conceito a ser desenvolvido e implementado. Uma vez que as organizações podem se beneficiar substancialmente da otimização e melhoria do front end da inovação, e que esse ainda tem recebido pouca atenção, tanto da academia quanto das organizações, justifica-se a importância de estudos que busquem a compreensão e a organização desse corpo da literatura, auxiliando assim na evolução dos conceitos teóricos, bem como o preenchimento das lacunas de pesquisa ainda existentes. Nesse sentido, este artigo relata os resultados de um estudo cujo objetivo foi, a partir de levantamento e análise da literatura relativa ao front end da inovação e, em especial, dos modelos desse subprocesso, propor um conjunto de pressupostos como base para o desenvolvimento teórico e empírico do tema. Com o levantamento, realizado em quatro bases de dados eletrônicas, foram identificados 268 trabalhos, dos quais oito apresentam modelos de front end da inovação considerados relevantes para análise. Esses modelos são comparados com base em alguns critérios de análise de conteúdo dos artigos. A partir dessa análise, também são sugeridas perspectivas de pesquisa, bem como pontos que necessitam de aprofundamento teórico são identificados.
... In the early stages of industrial evolution there is much uncertainty 1,30 about many aspects of concern to different relevant actors. 31 This lack of knowledge and uncertainty leads to a requirement for 'pioneers' 32 in the industry to establish legitimacy. 33 It is expected that these uncertainties will reduce over time, as the system becomes established, 34 in the same way as uncertainties for company R&D projects reduce with time. ...
Industrial emergence is a broad and complex domain, with relevant perspectives ranging in scale from the individual entrepreneur and firm with the business decisions and actions they make to the policies of nations and global patterns of industrialisation. The research described in this article has adopted a holistic approach, based on structured mapping methods, in an attempt to depict and understand the dynamics and patterns of industrial emergence across a broad spectrum from early scientific discovery to large-scale industrialisation. The breadth of scope and application has enabled a framework and set of four tools to be developed that have wide applicability. The utility of the approaches has been demonstrated through case studies and trials in a diverse range of industrial contexts. The adoption of such a broad scope also presents substantial challenges and limitations, with these providing an opportunity for further research.
... To determine the locations of uncertainty regarding demand for EVs, a framework of uncertainty which was initially outlined by Meijer et al. (2006) and subsequently applied to micro CHP (Meijer et al., 2007) is used as a starting point. In this paper, the structure of Meijer et al.'s (2006) framework is updated to account for the nuances of the EV market. ...
... To determine the locations of uncertainty prevalent in the market for EVs, a topology of uncertainty, which was initially outlined by Meijer et al. (2006) and subsequently applied to micro combined heat and power (Meijer et al., 2007), is used as a starting point to develop a conceptual framework of uncertainty in EV demand. In this paper, the structure of Meijer et al.'s topology is updated to account for the nuances of the EV market. ...
The introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) into the passenger vehicle market has, in recent years, become viewed as a primary solution to the significant carbon dioxide emissions attributed to personal mobility. Moreover, EVs offer a means by which energy diversification and efficiency can be improved compared to the current system. The UK government and European Commission have played an active role in steering the development and market introduction of EVs. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the effectiveness of these policies and the viability of EV technology in the mainstream automotive market. This paper investigates the prevalence of uncertainty concerning the demand for EVs. This is achieved through the application of a conceptual framework that assesses the locations of uncertainty. UK and EU documents are assessed through a review of the published policy alongside contributions from academia to determine how uncertainty has been reduced. This assessment offers insights to decision makers in this area by evaluating the work done to date through a landscape analysis. Results have identified six different locations of uncertainty covering: consumer, policy, infrastructure, technical, economic and social issues.
... For instance, the perception of uncertainties faced by the manufacturer of a new innovation is likely to be different to the uncertainties which are apparent to a consumer considering adopting the innovation. This framework was then subsequently applied to the transition to micro combined heat and power in the Netherlands (Meijer et al., 2007) with the results demonstrating that perceived uncertainties play a prominent role in the innovation and transition process. ...
... A feature of the innovation process is the reduction of uncertainty (Hall et al., 2011). Meijer et al. (2007a;2007b) identify six forms of uncertainty that might occur: technological; resource; competitive; supplier; consumer; and political. Often uncertainty exists at a scale where individuals within the AIS have insufficient agency to influence sources of uncertainty. ...
The use of automatic milking systems (AMS) is in an emergent phase in Australia with approximately 15 farms using the system in 2011. Dairy Australia, an industry-funded research and development organisation, has acknowledged a future role for this technology in the Australian dairy industry. However, successful uptake of automatic milking relies on farming system adaptation and the existence of appropriate technological, social and institutional system configuration. An online survey of 82 AMS researchers and service providers was conducted internationally, followed by case studies of non-farmer experts in selected AMS markets (The Netherlands, Denmark, England, Ireland). Results from the online survey were used to form a basis for the semi-structured interview questions in the case studies. An innovation systems framework was used to analyse the results, with particular attention to the mediation of technological learning through structures and initiatives which reduce uncertainty associated with the innovation. We found that roles in international AMS innovation systems differed through time, with larger roles for research and industry-good early in the development of innovation systems. Technological uncertainty played a major role in adoption initially, along with some impact from political uncertainty. Knowledge development was originally focused around farmers and technology providers, but later there were important (and commercial) roles for knowledge brokers. The findings suggest that in order to reduce uncertainty in an emerging AMS market, such as Australia, institutional guidance is required to foster knowledge development and exchange, and to establish a basis for ongoing capability development. There is an immediate need for institutional guidance to foster knowledge development and exchange, and to establish a foundation for ongoing capability development. In the emergent phase of the markets surveyed there was a role for industry-funded organizations in delivering broad knowledge development and capability building programs focused on key actors such as nutritionists, veterinarians, banking finance representatives and agricultural consultants. Based on international experience, we can expect these actors to have a pivotal role to play in reducing uncertainty in the emerging AMS innovation system in Australia.
... weather condition , demand profile, energy tariffs, investment costs, etc.) were discussed in Refs. [31,32]. To ensure the accuracy of the results, the impact of uncertain parameters on system behavior need to be assessed with sensitivity analysis. ...
As a result of the worldwide concern about global warming, projects that target reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have gained a lot of interest. The idea of this paper is to recover exhaust hot gases of an existing gas turbine power plant to meet dynamic thermal energy requirements of a residential area (the new town of Parand) situated in the suburb of Tehran, and also use the rest of the heat source potential to feed a steam turbine cycle. In close proximity to this town, there are two GT plants: Parand (954 MWe) and Rudeshur (790 MWe). For handling the CHP/STC/DH plant, two methods are considered along with thermal load following operation strategy: maximum power generation (MPG) and minimum fuel consumption (MFC). Then, the alternatives are compared in terms of annual PES, CO2 abatement and NPV. For the best design from environmental viewpoint (Parand CHP-B), PES, CO2 abatement and NPV are calculated to be 27.31%, 2.56 million tons and 1491 million dollar, respectively.
... In subsequent studies not only the lack of applicability of the RBV in highly dynamic markets (Kraaijenbrink et al., 2010), but also the definition of resources based on a traditional understanding of firm boundaries was criticized (for discussion of the shortcomings of the RBV we refer to (Barney, 2001c; Priem and Butler, 2001a, b). with ambiguity and high uncertainty (Fligstein, 2002; Meijer et al., 2007a, b), resources which firms have at their disposal or can access in their environment might be a starting point for creating and shaping supportive TIS structures. These structures in turn increase the chances of success of new technologies while reducing ambiguity and uncertainty. ...
In the field of energy supply, various innovative technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics and biomass digestion exist as potentially sustainable alternatives. However, many of these new technologies only cover small percentages of the overall energy supply. A better understanding of the determinants of innovations is thus crucial for their timely diffusion and a subsequent transformation of the energy sector towards more sustainable technologies. To examine the complex dynamics of technological change, the concept of technological innovation systems (TIS) represents a fruitful approach. TIS studies focus on the interplay of actors, networks and institutions and reveal systemic blocking or enhancing mechanisms that impact the generation, utilization and diffusion of new technologies.
In this stream of literature, agency and the structural build-up of TIS have not been a focus point, despite their significance for innovation processes. This dissertation explores the relationships between the strategic moves of actors and the development of new technological fields. To address this question, we draw on ideas and concepts from the strategic management and entrepreneurship literature and combine them with the innovation systems perspective. In particular we focus on resources and their role in innovation system-building. The empirical field of inquiry is the innovation system on stationary fuel cells in Germany. Through in-depth interviews with key informants directly involved in system-building, we studied the strategies of firms and formal networks in the field. The field of stationary fuel cells in Germany represents a very interesting case, as the technology is not only important for the development of a smart energy system but also indicative of many technological and organizational problems currently faced by (energy) innovations as they progress from prototypes to a mass market. Our analysis revealed how key actors and networks strategically influenced the emergence of the TIS and shaped the structures of the new field. They created technological standards, lobbied for public support programs, set up commonly available training modules, created value chains and increased public awareness of fuel cells. These structures represent assets that are of strategic value for firms interested in the novel technology. We conceptualize them as system resources. Our research shows that some specific actors, which we refer to as system builders, have continuously pushed the development of collective resources at the network and system level. Network resources such as joint knowledge, reputation, power and governance structures, in addition to the aforementioned system resources, are strategically developed and deployed to influence and control the development of the innovation system as a whole.
... The transport sector is capital intensive, and investments are characterized by longevity of technological components and irreversibility due to the large up-front sunk costs. In addition, there are different sources of uncertainty that have an impact on investment decisions, such as the uncertainty about the pace and direction of technological developments and uncertainty about future policy and regulations (Meijer et al. 2007). Technological uncertainty can relate to the technology itself, to the relation between the technology and the technological system, or to the availability of alternative technological solutions (both technologies that are already available as well as technologies that might become available in the future) (Meijer 2008). ...
Cleaner and less polluting public transport buses based on alternative fuels are of paramount importance if cities are to attain their ambitious emissions reduction targets. Public transport buses are high usage vehicles that operate in heavily congested areas where air quality improvements and reductions in public exposure to harmful air contaminants are critical. As such, they are good candidates for achieving both near-term and long-term emission reductions. Decision making for the investment in alternative fuel buses is dependent on future technological development and emissions standards, and it is difficult, given the uncertainty in regards to both these factors. The objective of this paper is to develop an analytical framework that will give us more insight into the trends in emissions standards as well as technology development, and eventually translate these insights into a sound investment decision making strategy. This paper concludes that, due to presence of uncertainties, the decision maker (public transport fleet manager) can take only incremental steps that will allow him or her to safeguard investments. Furthermore, if policy makers are serious about accelerating the diffusion of alternative fuels, they should aim at creating stable policy environment.
... Within Europe, the use of CHP remains extremely popular. Numerous countries such as Denmark (Mortensen and Overgaard, 1992), Lithuania (Lund et al., 2005), Sweden (Bjorklund et al., 2001;Danestig et al., 2007) and The Netherlands (Meijer et al., 2007) are known to source in the region of 30 per cent of their energy requirements from CHP sources. In the UK, approximately 30,000 jobs are associated with the industry. ...
Purpose
This paper seeks to set out opportunities for the development of a UK‐focused feasibility and sizing model utilising linear programming.
Design/methodology/approach
Optimisation of the model is conducted using integer linear programming developed using Excel Solver.
Findings
When compared with comparable alternatives, the model is shown to be particularly useful as its functionality is embedded in resource intensive prime mover specifications obtained from seven real industrial cases.
Research limitations/implications
The study acknowledges the limitation of utilising sizing data primarily obtained from secondary sources to develop the model.
Originality/value
The practical usefulness of this model is that it has been built using “real”, as opposed to simulated‐data. When compared with comparable alternatives, the model is shown to be articularly useful as its functionality is embedded in resource intensive prime mover specifications obtained from seven real industrial cases.
... Reference [15] also notes that suppliers and distributors may be invited to interact with development of a technology in order to avoid a possible technological lockout. Networks of specialized suppliers are increasingly considered to be factors that can facilitate management of breakthrough technological innovation [10]. ...
Countries and automotive companies are searching for ways to reduce vehicle dependence on oil and its environmental impacts. Hybrid engines, as well as hydrogen, natural gas, alcohol, and other fuels, have been proposed and tested as options to the currently dominant gasoline paradigm. Through a case study, this paper presents the endogenous and exogenous factors that allowed Magneti Marelli Sistemas Automotivos (Brasil) to develop a flexfuel technology architecture, launched commercially in 2003, with which customers can choose gasoline, alcohol, or any mix thereof. This software-based technological architecture is now the dominant flexfuel design in the Brazilian auto market. The main contribution of this article is thus to document the emergence of a local dominant design in a specific car sub-system. The paper describes how a local dominant technological design emerges through the sharing of capabilities and interaction among the key market players (suppliers of flexfuel technology, automakers, and alcohol producers) and the Brazilian government's Pro-Alcool program. Another contribution is the tentative idea of a local dominant design/technology.
Measurement and monitoring of pasture have been identified as foundations for profitable and sustainable grazing systems. The value that farmers place on pasture assessment in feed management is difficult to ascertain and has seen limited research. The objectives of this study were to test a survey to quantify the perceived value of pasture assessment and identify key criteria for design of pasture assessment technologies. An online survey methodology was piloted with 44 New Zealand farmers to assess perceptions of actual and great grazing management outcomes, good and great pasture assessment, and the value associated with moving from good to great pasture assessment. Results highlighted that many farmers perceive a small potential for improvements in their current pasture performance, whereas industry-level studies suggest that this is not the case. We found limitations with farmers linking better pasture management performance with eventual improvements in milk production. There were anomalies with assessing current and potential improved pasture performance through this type of survey methodology, with many farmers claiming very high levels of current performance, and some rating themselves as performing at more than 100% of potential. This research highlights that pasture assessment technology designers need to be aware of the high expectations of farmers regarding performance, for example measurement accuracy and data timeliness. Over, or under, specification of technology for specific tasks, such as daily allocation of pasture at a herd level, may lead to farmer dissatisfaction around costs of technology, return on investment, and if the technology is fit-for-purpose.
This paper addresses the question of how alignment dynamics between niche and regime actors shape niche acceleration. We develop a conceptual framework that focuses on the role of expectations as a necessary precondition and even as a key proxy for strategic collaboration between niche and regime actors. Based on actors’ expectations, we conceptualise three alignment patterns of strong, medium-strong and weak alignment. We propose a 16 % threshold of niche technology adoption for substantial niche acceleration. We explore our conceptual framework in two contrasting case studies of wind and solar power development in China between 2000 and 2017. Both cases experienced niche acceleration but followed different paths. Our research findings indicate that the three proposed alignment patterns between niche and regime actors’ expectations can be seen as a good proxy for explaining these different paths. Strong alignment between niche and regime actors’ expectations does go hand in hand with niche acceleration.
The majority of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Taiwan are original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) or original design manufacturers (ODMs). Given the growing intensity of global competition, transformation from OEM or ODM to a branded enterprise is a key concern for SMEs. SMEs’ branding processes are subject to numerous problems and among them, resistance by organization members is considered the most critical. Previous studies have largely focused on factors contributing to branding success or resistance by an organization’s employees, and few have addressed the implications of SMEs managers’ resistance to branding. To address the research gap, this study constructs a cognitive model for managers’ resistant behavior while drawing on the theory of planned behavior. Then, applying structural equation modeling, this study confirms that four exogenous variables, perceived belief, changes in job characteristics, organizational inertia, and social factors, directly influence two endogenous variables, managers’ attitude toward resistant behavior and the subjective norms of resistant behavior. Using demographic variables as independent variables, this study conducts a logistic regression analysis to predict companies resistant to branding on the basis of their background characteristics. The results highlight that the three factors with the highest predictive powers are organizational inertia, job position, and capitalization.
Radically innovative products and services are frequently developed and commercialized by new ventures. In this context, entrepreneurs may face the challenge of coordinating a complex network of actors in the presence of individual and collective uncertainties. Previous literature on entrepreneurship has focused on how entrepreneurs manage individual uncertainties (those that affect a single firm) rather than collective uncertainties that also affect members of the innovation ecosystem, which in turn may fundamentally affect the survival and growth of new ventures. Drawing on five longitudinal, inductive, in-depth case studies of start-ups and their innovation ecosystems, we find that current approaches for coping with individual uncertainties do not consider the impacts of uncertainties and actions on the innovation ecosystem partners. In that sense, entrepreneurs themselves may contribute to the propagation of uncertainties in the innovation ecosystem. We also identify processes by which entrepreneurs manage collective uncertainties in the innovation ecosystem, i.e., perceiving collective uncertainties, bridging uncertainties, conducting collective learning experiments and building a common template. This study improves understanding of how entrepreneurs act in uncertain environments.
Executive Summary
Renewable energy can provide a host of benefits to society. In addition to the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, governments have enacted renewable energy (RE) policies to meet a number of objectives including the creation of local environmental and health benefits; facilitation of energy access, particularly for rural areas; advancement of energy security goals by diversifying the portfolio of energy technologies and resources; and improving social and economic development through potential employment opportunities. Energy access and social and economic development have been the primary drivers in developing countries whereas ensuring a secure energy supply and environmental concerns have been most important in developed countries.
An increasing number and variety of RE policies–motivated by a variety of factors–have driven substantial growth of RE technologies in recent years. Government policies have played a crucial role in accelerating the deployment of RE technologies. At the same time, not all RE policies have proven effective and efficient in rapidly or substantially increasing RE deployment. The focus of policies is broadening from a concentration almost entirely on RE electricity to include RE heating and cooling and transportation.
RE policies have promoted an increase in RE capacity installations by helping to overcome various barriers. Barriers specific to RE policymaking (e.g., a lack of information and awareness), to implementation (e.g., a lack of an educated and trained workforce to match developing RE technologies) and to financing (e.g., market failures) may further impede deployment of RE.
This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SRREN) assesses the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change. It covers the six most important renewable energy sources - bioenergy, solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. SRREN brings a broad spectrum of technology-specific experts together with scientists studying energy systems as a whole. Prepared following strict IPCC procedures, it presents an impartial assessment of the current state of knowledge: it is policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. SRREN is an invaluable assessment of the potential role of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, and academic researchers.
The use of advanced management technologies is increasing in pasture-based dairy systems, an evolution that has been termed precision dairying. This change has been driven, at least in part, by a continual increase in the scale of dairy farming and an associated drive for efficiencies, and technological advances in the area of sensors and automated devices for animal and resource management. In this paper, a survey of New Zealand precision dairy farmers is presented, highlighting lessons from farmers for technology developers and industry. Respondents indicated that they invested in technologies such as electronic identification, milk meters, automated cup removers, and automated drafting for labour saving and to make herd management easier. Most were positive about their investments, with perceived benefits from saved time during milking, decreased farm workforce requirement, and increased farm profitability. Farmers also felt there was unused functionality in their herd management systems and that they could benefit from increased support and training to get more from their technology. Technology suppliers need to refocus on after-sales service and tailor their support programs to stages of learning development, while creating a value proposition for farmers to pay for such services. Dairy industry organisations need to take the lead in building awareness of the opportunities such technologies offer, while facilitating access to independent information about technology capability and investment.
District heating CHP (combined heat and power) and distributed generation CHP have been compared in this paper on the basis of energy, environmental and economic criteria, and a deviation index has been proposed to establish, in aggregate form, what the improvement margins are for a given design choice. Three technologies that are suitable for both district heating and distributed generation have been chosen: a mature market technology, internal combustion engines, and recent entry market technologies, that is, microturbines, and fuel cells. The calculations have been based on the real heating load curve of a town in Northern Italy at the current market conditions: power and fuel prices, tax exemptions relative to cogeneration, white certificates, etc. Two scenarios have been considered: maximum energy saving and maximum present value saving. In the first scenario, district heating obtained better energy and CO2 savings than distributed generation, but critical values have been observed for local nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter emissions, when internal combustion engines are adopted. In the second scenario, all the options offer positive energy, environmental and economic savings, and the payback times are significantly reduced compared to the previous scenario. The district heating options show the best present value savings and payback times, while distributed generation is only economically viable when internal combustion engines are adopted. Microturbines leads to the best NOx savings. Finally, the comparison with an alternative separate production of heat and power has shown that there are scenarios where none of the analysed technologies leads to a significant improvement. All this information, analysed together, provides a sort of map for policy makers through which they can better orientate themselves among the different scenarios.
In this paper, a conceptual framework for integrated uncertainty analysis is developed. The goal of the framework is to help identify all sorts of uncertainties in an integrated way and to assist the development of strategies to deal with major uncertainties, acknowledging that a significant part of the uncertainties cannot easily be eliminated and that policy and management strategies need to be developed to explicitly take this into account. The framework is applied to the energy system in order to identify uncertainties related to the future development of the energy infrastructure system, and to analyse and assess the possible impact and importance of the various uncertainties, and to find strategies to deal with them.
Purpose
The way and manner in which energy is produced is known to have a significant impact on emissions. For this reason, the UK government has sought to enhance the efficiency of energy production/conversion by focusing on a number of energy production approaches, including Combined Heat and Power (CHP). The purpose of this paper is to describe a practical approach for assessing the feasibility of CHP.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors provide an overview of Combined Heat and Power (CHP); describe a new and easy‐to‐implement feasibility and optimisation model to aid in the installation of CHP; and discuss the practical feasibility issues of CHP through an analysis of existing case studies using the proposed model. The modelling utilises regression models which are created using historical data obtained from public sources.
Findings
Compared against alternatives, the model is shown to be particularly useful, as its functionality is embedded in resource‐intensive prime mover specifications obtained from seven real industrial cases.
Originality/value
The need for such a practical and easy‐to‐use model is driven by the existence of numerous models, which are mainly complex and not necessarily “user‐friendly”. The proposed model is set to provide a practical and user‐friendly model for CHP appraisal that is easy to understand and assess in terms of prime movers such as capital cost, payback, annual financial and CO 2 savings.
Technological innovation systems have been widely used as a concept to analyze the emergence of radical innovations such as decentralized energy technologies. This body of literature focuses on the structural and functional analyses at the system-level, while processes at the firm and network level are often not so much in the focus. This paper makes a contribution to linking the different levels of analysis. As a bridging element, we will take the concept of resources known from the strategic management literature and discuss resources at the network and (innovation) system level in addition to resources at the firm level. In empirical terms, we review processes of resource generation in selected networks in the innovation system for stationary fuel cells in Germany. We distinguish different kinds of networks and the resources they produce. The analysis shows that networks create a broad range of resources many of which exert effects beyond the immediate network and its members. Such network based system resources include for example technical guidelines or the shaping of public R&D or policy initiatives. Furthermore, different types of network resources could be identified. Some like shared information or contacts among network members are quite generic and easy to establish and exploit, while the creation of others such as trust, visibility or political influence is more complex and time consuming. The latter though enable networks to accomplish a broader variety of innovation tasks and to play a more prominent, long-term role in the development of a technological innovation system.
The importance of green innovation management is growing both in practice and in academia. This paper provides a current overview of the existing body of literature in the field of green innovations, identifying the most active scholars, institutions and relevant publications. It also contributes to a clarification of the concept ‘green innovation’. The review explains that three different notions of green, eco/ecological and environmental innovation are used largely synonymously, while the notion of sustainable innovation broadens the concept and includes a social dimension. According to this review, the most active scholars are situated in Europe (especially the Netherlands, Italy and Germany). A ranking is provided of innovation management journals by their total number of green innovation publications. The paper stimulates discussion about the adequacy of research in this subject area (managing green innovation) and the dearth of comprehensive literature reviews.
For over 50 years environmental policy has developed under the assumption that self-interest explains firms' environmental behaviour and that the problem of pollution can be rectified by technological fixes. This policy paradigm has been proved wrong: entrenched antagonism between firms and regulators, and greater environmental harm, have proved to be the dominant outcomes. This book re-focuses environmental policy analysis by demonstrating how behavioural models can be applied within the field to better understand the propensity of the firm to engage in pro-environmental, innovative activities.
The book offers an essential tool for environmental policy analysis in the context of technical change. A rigorous theoretical and methodological framework based on Behavioural Insights is applied to identify sources of firms' willingness (or resistance) to engage in cleaner production and to evaluate under which conditions the firm's pro-environmental, innovative behaviour may be fostered. The author undertakes extensive research through a case study of the In-Bond industry a (off-shore manufacturing) and assesses the significance and relationship of individual factors relating to a firm's innovative behaviour towards 'greener' production. The model developed helps to understand the planned behaviour of the firm in specific contexts, to shape and guide empirical inquiry, and to produce useful corporate and public policy recommendations.
Environmental Policy and Technological Innovation comprehensively explores the factors which can influence a firm's behavioural approach towards developing clean technologies. Unlike many other studies on environmental policy, it addresses the origin of the problems and not just the symptoms. It has become an indispensable companion for local, national and international environmental regulators, environmental policymakers and analysts, and those interested in technological innovation and technology policy.
In the last twenty years, a large number of innovation system approaches have emerged. Even though there are similarities between different approaches, they emphasise different aspects of innovation systems. Moreover, within each approach the system models differ in terms of the concepts used and the actors identified and emphasised. It might, therefore, be useful to see if there is any agreement between the approaches with respect to what they claim "happens" in an innovation system, i.e. what functions are served in the system. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to find out if existing innovation system approaches share an understanding of the functions that are served in an innovation system and (2) to elaborate on the usefulness of the concept of "function" in innovation system studies. In summary, there seems to be quite a widely spread correspondence between different innovation system approaches with respect to the functions they mention so that a number of common, basic functions can be identified. The concept of "function" has several benefits. It provides a tool for setting system borders and may be used as a tool to diagnose the present state of a system or to create an easily grasped picture of innovation system dynamics. It makes it possible to assess system performance and may be useful in comparative studies since actors may be uncoupled from what happens in the system.
We note the emergence of a new type of intermediary organization, which functions at system or network level, in contrast to traditional intermediary organizations that operate mainly bilaterally. These "systemic intermediaries" are important in long-term and complex changes, such as "transitions" to sustainable development, which require the coordinated effort of industry, policy makers, research institutes and others. We use the Systems of Innovation approach to characterize the roles of traditional and systemic intermediary organizations. A review of recent changes in innovation systems points to the need of more systemic efforts, such as the articulation of needs and options, the alignment of relevant actors and the support of learning processes. In a phase model of transitions additional roles of systemic intermediaries are identified. A case study of the Californian Fuel Cell Partnership shows how the efforts of systemic intermediaries in encompassing systemic innovations are useful and necessary, but not sufficient.
A bounded socio-technical experiment (BSTE) attempts to introduce a new technology, service, or a social arrangement on a small scale. Many such experiments in personal mobility are ongoing worldwide. They are carried out by coalitions of diverse actors, and are driven by long term and large scale visions of advancing society’s sustainability agenda. This paper focuses on the processes of higher-order learning that occur through BSTEs. Based on the conceptual frameworks from theories of organizational learning, policy-oriented learning, and diffusion of innovation, we identify two types of learning: the first type occurs among the participants in the experiment and their immediate professional networks; the second type occurs in the society at large. Both types play a key role in the societal transition towards sustainable mobility systems. Two case studies, in which the Design for Sustainability Group at Technical University of Delft has participated, provide empirical data for the analysis. One case consists of development of a three-wheeled bike-plus vehicle (Mitka); the second case seeks to solve mobility problems on the Dutch island of Texel. We find that higher order learning of the first type occurs among the BSTE participants and beyond. Learning can be facilitated by deployment of structured visioning exercises, by diffusion of ideas among related BSTEs, by innovative couplings of problems and solutions, and by creating links among related experiments. Government agencies, universities and other intellectual entrepreneurs have key roles to play in making that happen. The cases provide much less insights about the second type of learning. Research on the latter is necessary.
The current research and up to date experience with transitions suggest that to be able to stimulate transitions towards sustainability we still need to build a strong knowledge base in this field. In particular we face two major research challenges, notably (1) the need to improve insights in the dynamic of transition processes and (2) the need to successfully apply these insights in the development of strategies and policies that would induce and stimulate the occurrence of transitions. In this introductory article, we briefly discuss some of the main elements of these two challenges.
The research literature on environmental uncertainty is briefly reviewed to illustrate problems and inconsistencies in conceptualizing and measuring the construct. Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment are described and their implications for the behavior of an organization's administrators are discussed. The failure to differentiate between these types may explain some of the confusion about environmental uncertainty.
The cogeneration is worldwide considered as the major option to achieve considerable energy saving with respect to traditional systems. This paper deals with the application of micro-cogeneration (electrical power <15 kW) to small scale (residential and light commercial application) users; the state of art of this technology is considered and an energetic analysis of MCHP system regarding its utilization in conjuction with domestic household appliances is performed. Finally the test facility designed and built to evaluate the performance of micro-CHP system itself is described and the optimum operation mode to match the user’s thermal and electrical loads identified.
A quasi-evolutionary model of socio-technical transitions is described in which regimes face selection pressures continuously. Differentiated transition contexts determine the form and direction of regime change in response to these pressures. The articulation of pressures, and the degree to which responses are coordinated and based on resources available within the regime, define the transition context. Four alternative contexts are described: endogenous renewal; re-orientation of trajectories; emergent transformation and purposive transitions. Agency and power in the governance of regime transformation are analysed. Power to affect change depends on regime membership, the distribution of resources for change and expectations.
During the last two decades there has been a great deal of research on renewable energy technologies. It is commonly thought that very little has come out of this research in terms of commercially interesting technologies. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate that this perception is no longer entirely correct; in the 1990s there has been a double-digit growth rate in the market for some renewable energy technologies. The consequent alteration in the energy system, is, however, a slow, painful and highly uncertain process. This process, we argue, needs to be studied using an innovation system perspective where the focus is on networks, institutions and firms’ perceptions, competencies and strategies. The second objective of the paper is therefore to present the bare bones of such an analytical framework. A third objective is to identify a set of key issues related to the speed and direction of that transformation process which needs to be studied further.
Starting from the co-evolutionary development of innovation practice, theory and policy, five functions are identified that play a crucial role in the management of present-day innovation processes: (1) management of interfaces, (2) (de-) construction and organising (innovation) systems, (3) providing a platform for learning and experimenting, (4) providing an infrastructure for strategic intelligence and (5) stimulating demand articulation, strategy and vision development. From a first analysis of innovation policy instrument portfolios it is concluded that the already existing instruments only cover a small part of the five 'systemic' functions. Furthermore it is concluded that the portfolios are heavily dominated by financial instruments. It is argued that the development of a (relatively) new type of instrument, the systemic instruments, should be furthered in order to tune the instrument portfolio better to the needs of actors involved in innovation processes. In order to obtain a better insight into the characteristics of systemic instruments, their success and fail factors, and into strategies for their further development, effectiveness and use, an analysis of four systemic instruments avant la letter is presented. From this analysis conclusions concerning the need for and best practice of systemic instruments are drawn, suggestions for policy are derived and questions for further research are proposed.
The central idea of this paper is that innovation systems are a very important determinant of technological change. We describe that the emergence of a new innovation system and changes in existing innovation systems co-evolve with the process of technological change. Therefore, it is necessary to create more insight in the dynamics of innovation systems. Traditional methods of innovation system analysis that mainly focus on the
structure of innovation systems have proven to be insufficient. Therefore, we propose a framework that focuses on a number of processes that are highly important for well performing innovation systems. These processes are labeled as 'functions of innovation systems'. After explaining this framework and embedding it in existing
literature, we propose a method for systematically mapping those processes taking place in innovation systems and resulting in technological change. This method can be characterized as a process analysis or history event analysis. Clarifying examples are taken from the empirical field of Sustainable Technology Development.
This paper proposes a method for the ex ante evaluation of technological trajectories. As a case we study the Dutch transport energy system and its transition to climate neutrality. Two technological trajectories are proposed: (i) a sequence of transition steps based on radical infrastructural change, and (ii) a sequence of steps oriented towards incremental innovation on the side of the vehicle. The system is approached from a multi-actor perspective, taking into account the multiplicity of views and interests of actors involved. Based on interviews a quick scan is made in terms of their Willingness to Participate (WTP). We find that on long term goals, a positive WTP and a high degree of consent are the case. For the short term the opposite is found. Management should therefore be directed at facilitating short term innovations: in the case of an incremental strategy, by stimulating market development; and in case of a radical strategy, by providing finance and institutional legitimation.
The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the modellers’ view on uncertainty) – uncertainty regarding the analytical outcomes and conclusions of the decision support exercise. Within the regulatory and management sciences, there is neither commonly shared terminology nor full agreement on a typology of uncertainties. Our aim is to synthesise a wide variety of contributions on uncertainty in model-based decision support in order to provide an interdisciplinary theoretical framework for systematic uncertainty analysis. To that end we adopt a general definition of uncertainty as being any deviation from the unachievable ideal of completely deterministic knowledge of the relevant system. We further propose to discriminate among three dimensions of uncertainty: location, level and nature of uncertainty, and we harmonise existing typologies to further detail the concepts behind these three dimensions of uncertainty.We propose an uncertainty matrix as a heuristic tool to classify and report the various dimensions of uncertainty, thereby providing a conceptual framework for better communication among analysts as well as between them and policymakers and stakeholders. Understanding the various dimensions of uncertainty helps in identifying, articulating, and prioritising critical uncertainties, which is a crucial step to more adequate acknowledgement and treatment of uncertainty in decision support endeavours and more focused research on complex, inherently uncertain, policy issues.
This paper analyses the development and diffusion of technologies that utilize renewable energy sources in Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands. The analysis enlarges the life cycle model of industry evolution to one where the focus is on the formation and evolution of new technological systems. Particular focus is on explaining success and failures in shifting from a formative phase into one characterized by positive feedbacks. A set of challenges is identified for policy makers attempting to influence the process of transforming the energy sector. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.
Competitive strategy under uncertainty involves a trade-off between acting early and acting later after the uncertainty is resolved, and another trade-off between focusing resources on one scenario and spreading resources on several scenarios thus maintaining flexibility. This paper analyzes both these trade-offs taking into consideration the nature of uncertainty, industry economics, intensity of competition, and the position of a firm relative to its competitors.
This essay presents an overview of selected aspects of prevailing theoretical understanding of innovation, and attempts to sketch some directions that would seem fruitful to follow if we are to achieve a theoretical structure that can be helpful in guiding thinking about policy. We are using the term innovation as a portmanteau to cover the wide range of variegated processes by which man’s technologies evolve over time. By a theory we mean a reasonable coherent intellectual framework which integrates existing knowledge, and enables predictions to go beyond the particulars of what actually has been observed. It seems apparent that if scholarly knowledge is to be helpful to deliberation about policy directions, theory must be wide enough to encompass and link the relevant variables and their effects, and strong enough to give guidance as to what would happen if some of these variables changed.
This paper presents a strategic view of environmental uncertainty for profit-oriented organizations. It argues that managers make-decisions that sometimes result in the aggressive creation of environmental uncertainty. A proposed model suggests that although strategy, structure, and performance constitute environmental enactment processes, the environment also directly influences organization performance. Further, the performance of others influences the environment through individual and collective actions.
Without certainty about government policies, business decision makers are unable to assess risk and opportunity and make the trade-offs necessary for investment in new technologies. Different policies (R&D, health and safety, economic regulation) have different effects, depending on type of industry and size of firm. Because there are no established standards for judging industry performance, it is difficult to know whether policy uncertainty is simply a rationalization for not innovating or whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between policy uncertainty and technological change.
This book considers two main questions: how do system innovations or transitions come about and how can they be influenced by different actors, in particular by governments. The authors identify the theories which can be used to conceptualise the dynamics of system innovations and discuss the weaknesses in these theories. They also look at the lessons which can be learned from historical examples of transitions, and highlight the instruments and policy tools which can be used to stimulate future system innovations towards sustainability. The expert contributors address these questions using insights from a variety of different disciplines including innovation studies, evolutionary economics, the sociology of technology, environmental analysis and governance studies. The book concludes with an extensive summary of the results and practical suggestions for future research.
The unsustainability of the present trajctories of technical change in sectors such as transport and agriculture is widely recognized. It is far from clear, however, how a transition to more sustainable modes of development may be achieved. Sustainable technologies that fulful important user requirements in terms of performance and price are most often not available on the market. Ideas of what might be more sustainable technologies exist, but the long development times, uncertainty about market demand and social gains, and the need for change at different levels in organization, technology, infastructure and the wider social and institutional context-provide a great barrier. This raises the question of how the potential of more sustainable technologies and modes of development may be exploited. In this article we describe how technical change is locked into dominant technological regimes, and present a perspective, called strategic niche management, on how to expedite a transition into a new regime. The perspective consists of the creation and/or management of nichesfor promising technologies.
Industrial classifications were used as a basis for operational definitions of both industrial and organizational task environments. A codification of six environmental dimensions was reduced to three: munificence (capacity), complexity (homogeneity-heterogeneity, concentration-dispersion), and dynamism (stability-instability, turbulence). Interitem and factor analytic techniques were used to explore the viability of these environmental dimensions. Implications of the research for building both descriptive and normative theory about organization-environment relationships are advanced.
Transitions are transformation processes in which society changes in a fundamental way over a generation or more. Although the goals of a transition are ultimately chosen by society, governments can play a role in bringing about structural change in a stepwise manner. Their management involves sensitivity to existing dynamics and regular adjustment of goals to overcome the conflict between long-term ambition and short-term concerns. This article uses the example of a transition to a low emission energy supply in the Netherlands to argue that transition management provides a basis for coherence and consistency in public policy and can be the spur to sustainable development.
The concept of environmental uncertainty is recognized as a fundamental element of the strategic management and organizational theory literature. Unfortunately, the development of inconsistent conceptualizations and operationalizations of uncertainty have muddled the true meanings of the construct. In an effort to reverse this disturbing trend, this paper systematically analyzes the historical development of the uncertainty construct. Seminal management literature is used to trace the construct’s evolution over the last 60 years and to speak to the original meanings of its key elements. The rise of the information uncertainty and resource dependence schools is explored, as is the evolution of the construct’s operationalization from simple to complex measures. Insights provided by this analysis form the basis of a categorization scheme for conceptualizations and operationalizations of uncertainty. This categorization and the discussion that accompanies it are intended to provide future researchers with greater precision and consistency in the use of the environmental uncertainty construct.
Competitive strategy under uncertainty involves a trade-off between acting early and acting later after the uncertainty is resolved, and another trade-off between focusing resources on one scenario and spreading resources on several scenarios, thus maintaining flexibility. This paper analyzes both these trade-offs taking into consideration the nature of uncertainty, industry economics, intensity of competition, and the position of a firm relative to its competitors.
Abstract Technology largely determines economic development and its impact on the environment; yet technological change is one of the least developed parts of existing global change models. This paper reviews two approaches developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, both of which use the concept of technological learning and aid modeling of technological change. The first approach is a micromodel ("bottom-up") of three electricity generation technologies that rigorously endogenizes technological change by incorporating both uncertainty (stochasticity) and learning into the model's decision rules. This model, with its endogenous technological change, allows radical innovations to penetrate the energy market and generates S-shaped patterns of technological diffusion that are observed in the real world. The second approach is a macro ("top-down") model that consists of coupled economic- and technological-system models. Although more stylistic in its representation of endogenous technological change, the macro model can be applied on a worldwide scale and can generate long-term scenarios that are critical for policy analysis. Both the micro- and macro models generate radical departures from currently dominant technological systems ("surprises"), including long-term scenarios with low carbon and sulfur emissions. Our focus is modeling, but for policy, the work underscores the need for huge investments before environmentally superior technologies can compete in the market.
While the course of technological change is widely accepted to be highly uncertain and unpredictable, little work has identified or studied the ultimate sources and causes of that uncertainty. This paper proposes that purely technological uncertainty derives from inventors' search processes with unfamiliar components and component combinations. Experimentation with new components and new combinations leads to less useful inventions on average, but it also implies an increase in the variability that can result in both failure and breakthrough. Negative binomial count and dispersion models with patent citation data demonstrate that new combinations are indeed more variable. In contrast to predictions, however, the reuse of components has a nonmonotonic and eventually positive effect on variability.
This paper narrative argues that industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co-evolution driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale. It is asserted that this condition, termed carbon lock-in, creates persistent market and policy failures that can inhibit the diffusion of carbon-saving technologies despite their apparent environmental and economic advantages. The notion of a Techno-Institutional Complex is introduced to capture the idea that lock-in occurs through combined interactions among technological systems and governing institutions. While carbon lock-in provides a conceptual basis for understanding macro-level barriers to the diffusion of carbon-saving technologies, it also generates questions for standard economic modeling approaches that abstract away technological and institutional evolution in their elaboration. The question of escaping carbon lock-in is left for a future paper.
This paper addresses the question of how technological transitions (TT) come about? Are there particular patterns and mechanisms in transition processes? TT are defined as major, long-term technological changes in the way societal functions are fulfilled. TT do not only involve changes in technology, but also changes in user practices, regulation, industrial networks, infrastructure, and symbolic meaning or culture. This paper practices ‘appreciative theory’ [R.R. Nelson, S.G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Bellknap Press, Cambridge, MA, 1982] and brings together insights from evolutionary economics and technology studies. This results in a multi-level perspective on TT where two views of the evolution are combined: (i) evolution as a process of variation, selection and retention, (ii) evolution as a process of unfolding and reconfiguration. The perspective is empirically illustrated with a qualitative longitudinal case-study, the transition from sailing ships to steamships, 1780–1900. Three particular mechanisms in TT are described: niche-cumulation, technological add-on and hybridisation, riding along with market growth.
This paper develops a conceptual framework for analyzing the sequence of technological changes that underlie the development of industries. The framework examines the interaction between design decisions and the coices of customers. Using examples from autos and semiconductors the paper argues that the logic of problem solving in design and the formation of concepts that underlie choice in the marketplace impose a hierarchical structure on the evolution of technology. The nature of the evolutionary process has implications for the dynamics of competition and the management of innovation.
The procedures and the nature of “technologies” are suggested to be broadly similar to those which characterize “science”. In particular, there appear to be “technological paradigms” (or research programmes) performing a similar role to “scientific paradigms” (or research programmes). The model tries to account for both continuous changes and discontinuities in technological innovation. Continuous changes are often related to progress along a technological trajectory defined by a technological paradigm, while discontinuities are associated with the emergence of a new paradigm. One-directional explanations of the innovative process, and in particular those assuming “the market” as the prime mover, are inadequate to explain the emergence of new technological paradigms. The origin of the latter stems from the interplay between scientific advances, economic factors, institutional variables, and unsolved difficulties on established technological paths. The model tries to establish a sufficiently general framework which accounts for all these factors and to define the process of selection of new technological paradigms among a greater set of notionally possible ones.The history of a technology is contextual to the history of the industrial structures associated with that technology. The emergence of a new paradigm is often related to new “schumpeterian” companies, while its establishment often shows also a process of oligopolistic stabilization.
This article provides insight into technology-economy-ecology linkages which may help to define and accomplish environmentally sustainable development. An evolutionary perspective is adopted in which economic growth and technological change are viewed as a complex, non-linear, path-dependent process, driven by short-term benefits instead of longer- term optimality. The article discusses the externality issues of technological change and the need for institutional adaptation, and talks about the relationship between economic growth and particular trajectories of technological change. It is stated that some of the present technological trajectories have reached their environmental limits and need to be replaced by environment-friendlier trajectories. However, such transitions are hindered by technical, economic and institutional barriers since the new trajectories have not yet benefited from ‘dynamic scale and learning effects’ and because the ‘selection environment’ is adapted to the old regime. The determinants of the decision processes to generate and adopt cleaner technologies are identified and analysed, and some policy issues of stimulating environment-friendlier technologies are discussed.
This paper proposes an integrative framework for understanding the process by which a technology achieves dominance when “battling” against other technological designs. We focus on describing the different stages of a dominance battle and propose five battle milestones that in turn define five key phases in the process. We review the literature from several disciplines to identify the key firm- and environment-level factors that affect the outcome of a technology battle and posit that the relative importance of each factor will vary depending on the phase considered. Our framework complements and extends existing literature and has implications both for theory and for management practice.
Socio-technological transformations are difficult to achieve. Percieved uncertainties that hinder the innovation decisions of involved actors play a key role in this process. Determining how percieved uncertainties differ between types of actors and between transorfmation phases (pre-development, take-off, acceleration, stabilisation) can provide essential insights for managing such transformations. This article aims at presenting a framework for anlysing the role of uncertainties in socio-technological transformations. In this framework, we clasify uncertainties according to their source (technology, resouces, competitors. suppliers, consumers, politics), nature (knowledge, vaiability) and level ( low to high) and relate this uncertainty typology to the different transformation phases and involved actors. Finally, we discuss implications for policy.
This essay presents an overview of the prevailing theoretical literature on innovation, probes the adequacy of existing theory to guide policy regarding innovation, and sketches some directions for more fruitful theorizing. The focus is on the vast interindustry differences in rates of productivity growth, and other manifestations of differential rates of technological progress across industries. It is argued that the most important policy issues involve finding ways to make the currently lagging sectors more progressive, if in fact that can be done. Theory, to be useful, therefore must organize knowledge and guide research regarding what lies behind the uneven performance of the different economic sectors. In fact prevailing theory cannot do this, for two basic reasons. One is that theory is fragmented, and knowledge and research fall into a number of disjoint intellectual traditions. The second is that the strongest of the research traditions that bear on the differential innovation puzzle, research by economists organized around trying to ‘fit’ production functions and explain how production functions ‘shift’, neglects two central aspects of the problem; that innovation involves uncertainty in an essential way, and that the institutional structure supporting innovation varies greatly from sector to sector. The bulk of the paper is concerned with sketching a theoretical structure that appears to bridge a number of presently separate subfields of study of innovation, and which treats uncertainty and institutional diversity centrally.
Transities vanuit socio-technisch perspectief”; achtergronddocument bij hoofdstuk 1 van het rapport “Transities en transitiemanagement
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bTransities en transitiemanagementQ (Rotmans et al, 2000). 2000, Merit (Universiteit Maastricht): Maastricht.
Linking Flexibility, Uncertainty and Variability in Manufacturing Systems: Managing Un-Planned Change in the Automotive Industry
- H L Corrê
H.L. Corrê, Linking Flexibility, Uncertainty and Variability in Manufacturing Systems: Managing Un-Planned Change in the Automotive Industry, Aldershot, Avebury, 1994.
Available from: www.energietransitie.nl. Drs is a PhD candidate at Utrecht University (Department of Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation) and Delft University of Technology (Department of Policy, Organisation and Management) in The Netherlands
- Ez Ministerie
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Ministerie van EZ. Website Energietransitie, thema Nieuw Gas [website] 2006 [cited 2006 15 February]; Available from: www.energietransitie.nl. Drs. Ineke S.M. Meijer (1979) is a PhD candidate at Utrecht University (Department of Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation) and Delft University of Technology (Department of Policy, Organisation and Management) in The Netherlands. Dr. Marko P. Hekkert (1971) is Associate Professor of Sustainable Innovation at the Department of Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University in The Netherlands. Dr. Joop F.M. Koppenjan (1955) is Associate Professor within the Department of Policy, Organisation and Management, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of the Delft University of Technology. I.S.M. Meijer et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 519–537
The Innovation Journey
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A.H. Van de Ven, et al., The Innovation Journey, Oxford University Press, New York, 1999.
Roles of strategic intermediaries in transition processes: the case of energy innovation systems
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H. Van Lente, et al., Roles of strategic intermediaries in transition processes: the case of energy innovation systems, Int. J. Technol. Manag. 7 (3) (2003).