No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
The Impact of Climate on Holiday Destination Choice
Abstract
The holiday destination choice is analysed for tourists from 45 countries, representing all continents and all climates. Tourists are deterred by distance, political instability and poverty, and attracted to coasts. Tourists prefer countries with a sunny yet mild climate, shun climates that are too hot or too cold. A country's tourists' aversion for poverty and distance can be predicted by that country's average per capita income. The preferred holiday climate is the same for all tourists, independent of the home climate. However, tourists from hotter climates have more pronounced preferences. © Springer 2006.
... However, the climate condition is the main natural factor affecting tourism [1,2]. Climate is crucial in determining the touristic areas [3,4] and affects tourism demand in different seasons [5]. Since tourists are more sensitive to climate conditions than the local people [6]; they usually prefer a place having a pleasant level of thermal comfort [7]. ...
... Six historical and urban touristic sites of Isfahan, such as Naqshe-Jahan Square, 1 Masjed-e-Jame, 2 Si-o-Se Pol, 3 Menar-e-Jonban, 4 Hasht Behesht Palace 5 and Vank Cathedral, were selected to evaluate their thermal comfort conditions. The location of these historical sites is displayed in Fig. 1. ...
... A Square Situated at the Center of Isfahan.2 Grand Mosque of Isfahan.3 A Thirty-Three Stone Double-deck Arch Bridge in Isfahan.4 ...
The present study intended to evaluate thermal comfort conditions in microclimates of the urban historical areas of Isfahan, Iran during a heatwave. The thermal comfort conditions of different historical sites were compared during the daylight hours to determine the best time to visit each historical site. Using the results of this study, tourists can select the best timeframe with appropriate thermal conditions to visit the historical sites of Isfahan. Along with performing field measurements in the intended historical sites, a questionnaire was used to determine the thermal comfort range of tourists. ENVI-met is used in order to properly simulate the outdoor thermal environment of the historical touristic areas in Isfahan during the hottest as well as the most touristic month of the year. The results of questionnaire and simulations are compared with each other. It was shown that three historical sites with higher thermal stress experience an unpleasant thermal condition. The results of questionnaire show that the comfort range of tourists is within 23.06–29.73 °C PET. The thermal conditions of Si-o-Se Pol, Hasht Behesht and Naqsh-e-Jahan are within the thermal comfort range at 19,20 and 21 p.m. respectively. During the daytime, thermal comfort conditions varied from 4.9 °C PET at 8 a.m. to 8.1 °C PET at 3 p.m. Early morning hours were the most comfortable time to visit the historical sites of Menar-e-Jonban, Masjed-e-Jame and Vank Cathedral in Isfahan. During the peak hours of heat, the priority of thermal comfort goes to Masjed-e-Jame, Menar-e-Jonban and Si-o-Se Pol, respectively.
... Marketers must also consider the motives of new tourists as well as current tourists' objectives and needs. The impact of factors such as basic tourist personality traits (Lepp & Gibsonb, 2008), distance from or cost of a site, and climate information on destination selection has been explored (Bigano et al., 2006). While these studies examine how a destination's qualities affect visitors' intentions to visit, return, or never return, the importance of a visitor's choice of location within a specific area is often disregarded. ...
... Past research were used as secondary data sources. Bigano et al. (2006), where the items were found to be reliable and valid. The scale items for measuring constructs (Destination familiarity, destination image, safety and security, travel motivation, social media, reference groups), The variables that were measured are listed in Table 1. ...
The tourism industry has become an important sector that has a substantial influence on the development of a country’s economy. One of the most significant benefits of tourism includes the construction and improvement of local infrastructure. Tremendous opportunities waits for Bangladesh as she has potentials to attract both local and global tourists. However, tourism and destination marketers should utilize different marketing tactics to content and retain existing customers, encourage new and prospective ones. The research was to examine the impact of destination familiarity, destination image, safety and security, travel motivation, social media and reference groups on tourists’ destination choice in the contexts of Bangladesh. The research design of this study was descriptive. The study was used purposive sampling method. Primary and secondary data both were used. Primary data were collected through a structured questionnaire by survey method from 256 Bangladeshi tourists visiting to tourism destination using a five-point Likert scale. Statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) 25.0 version software was used for analysis the data. It was analysed using descriptive statistics analysis, multicollinearity test, reliability analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results of the regression analysis revealed that all aspects except travel motivation had a significant and positive influence on destination choice in Bangladesh. Therefore, it is recommended that the research creates awareness among prospective tourists, investigators, academicians, government authorities, tourism businesses, politicians and all the stakeholders. Hence, the research will be aided destination choice advance along with tourism destination products offer to prospect tourists in Bangladesh.
... Estas motivações podem incorporar-se nos índices climáticos existentes (Mieczkowski 1985;Morgan et al., 2000;De Freitas et al., 2008), nos modelos de procura (e.g., Lise & Tol, 2002;Bigano et al., 2006) e nas avaliações das alterações climáticas (e.g., Scott et al., 2004;Amelung et al., 2007;Moreno & Amelung, 2009;Moore, 2010), para permitir projeções mais robustas da oferta turística. Estas projeções podem ajudar a indústria do turismo a desenvolver planos para a adaptação à variabilidade climática, minimizando os riscos associados e capitalizando novas oportunidades para mudanças nas relações competitivas entre os destinos. ...
... 2 -A procura turística em algumas áreas geográficas é muito intensa (e.g., destinos de turismo de massas na bacia do Mediterrâneo) e, devido ao "efeito lock-in" associado a esses destinos, a procura manter-se-á muito próxima dos níveis atuais nos próximos anos, embora os fenómenos e as manifestações das alterações climáticas sejam já substanciais. Num relatório sobre as atitudes dos europeus em relação ao turismo, demonstrou-se que 54,0% dos europeus preferem passar as suas Embora o turismo "sustentável" esteja na agenda da investigação e da indústria turística há muitos anos, sobretudo desde o relatório de Brundtland (1987), apenas nas últimas décadas foram realizados estudos sobre os possíveis impactes das alterações climáticas na indústria do turismo (Wall, 1998a(Wall, , 1998bMaddison, 2001;Lise & Tol, 2002;Belle & Bramwell, 2005;Amelung & Viner, 2006;Bigano et al., 2006;Perry, 2006;Amelung et al., 2007;Scott et al., 2007aScott et al., , 2007bCaldeira & Kastenholz, 2018;Dube & Nhamo, 2018;Hewer & Gough, 2018;Dube & Nhamo, 2020). O mesmo tem acontecido relativamente ao estudo dos impactes potenciais do turismo nas alterações climáticas (Høyer, 2000;Becken & Simmons, 2002a;Gössling, 2002;Becken et al., 2003;Patterson et al., 2006;Dolnicar et al., 2010;Peeters, 2017;Knowles, 2019;Whitmarsh et al., 2020). ...
In recent years, those who create strategies and policies for urban tourist destinations have been increasingly concerned with the greater or lesser capacity to enjoy public space. Furthermore, the growth of urban areas on a global scale has caused significant changes in the (micro)climate, due to the increase in impermeable surfaces, the anthropogenic heat generated by human activities and the change in air circulation. Taking into account the increasing demands of tourists and residents and the need to improve cities in the face of climate change, the option is to design new measures and action solutions. However, the lack of quality of the input data or their (total) absence, as well as their low spatial resolution, are common. The inadequacy of structures for sharing information is also noted, which significantly limits planning and adaptation actions. This investigation aims to identify the main methods of analysis to monitor the current ability to enjoy tourism based on the integration of objective and subjective domains; and contribute to the definition of action plans which seek to mitigate and adapt the tourism sector to climate change, in the medium and long-term. To assess the validity of these assumptions, the Porto Metropolitan Area, in general, and the municipality of Porto, in particular, were used as case studies. In this investigation, different methods of information and units of analysis were combined, based on a meso approach and local scale for: (i) the identification of critical areas, in an office analysis based essentially on Big Data (i.e., Flickr photographs, AirBnB accommodation and MODIS and LANDSAT satellite imagery); (ii) the assessment of the comfort level for enjoyment in critical areas with high tourist potential through field data collection; and (iii) the identification of prioritization actions and measures to maintain tourism attractiveness in view of climate change, in the medium and long-term. This research highlights the need for more detailed information, the weak interaction between stakeholders and the limitation of resources. Thus, considering that Porto is a destination with a good climate for tourism, and committed to mitigating the effects of climate change, the proposed methodological triangulation allows to outline some measures with predictable action in the short, medium and long-term. Finally, this study aims to make some contributions at national and international level, with the likelihood of the methodological approach adopted to be replicated in other geographical areas, taking into account the particularities of each territory under analysis.
... Similarly, the positive and statistical significance of the r_TEMP mean coefficient indicates that, on average, utility increases as the temperature at the destination rises (relative to that at the origin). This is consistent with Bigano et al. (2006) and Lyons et al. (2009). However, both the significance and magnitude of the standard deviation of the random component suggest that the marginal utility of the ratio of temperatures is heterogeneous (see below). ...
... Interestingly, individuals from regions with above-mean temperatures in the summer season show higher preference for relatively cooler destinations. In this regard, there is consensus in the literature that higher temperatures are preferred up to a threshold (Bigano et al., 2006;Bujosa and Rosselló, 2013). By contrast, above-mean temperatures at the origin in the first quarter are associated with a higher preference for warmer regions. ...
This paper studies individual preferences for place‐based attributes in the context of nature‐based domestic tourism trips. We examine the regional characteristics that explain tourist destination choice focusing on taste heterogeneity for distance and temperature. We examine the influence of a set of mean shifters in the marginal utilities for regional amenities, and how individuals are willing to trade distance in exchange for warmer (cooler) climates (i.e., marginal rates of substitution). Using a rich dataset of trips within Spain for nature‐based purposes, we find large heterogeneity in preferences for temperature differentials and distance, with trip purposes acting as moderators.
... 769). Moreover, the sensitivity of weather and climate impact on nature-based tourism varies depending on different tourism activities, geographic locations, landscapes, and other specific attractions of the destinations (Bigano et al., 2006;Hoogendoorn & Fitchett, 2018;Perch-Nielsen, 2010;Salpage et al., 2020;Steiger et al., 2019). Therefore, it is necessary to understand weather and climate resources relevant to tourists to inform destination choice and management. ...
... Researchers have used the HCI-urban to quantify weather and climate resources for beach tourism, urban tourism, and general tourism in multiple countries in the northern hemisphere (see supplementary Table 6). There are a few potential weaknesses with the HCI-urban including: (1) the additive method used to aggregate climate factors may not precisely reflect the non-linear, overriding effects of physical factors (De Freitas, 2003); (2) survey-based indices may introduce an uncertain response bias (Bigano et al., 2006), and; (3) there have been observed inconsistencies between reported tourists' preferences and actual behaviours (Craig, 2019;Craig & Feng, 2018). ...
Nature-based tourism is beholden to weather, extreme weather, and climate change (i.e. climate resources), though researchers have yet to longitudinally explore the influence of climate resources on United States National Parks for visitation and camping. Accordingly, this study operationalises climate resources at 11 southern United States National Parks using five tourism climate indices including the Tourism Climate Index, Holiday Climate Index (urban and beach), Optimised Index, and Camping Climate Index. Results demonstrate that the Camping Climate Index is more predictive of visitation, recreational vehicle camping, and tent camping compared to other indices, though not for all locations or tourism activities. Results also indicate that between 1981 and 2019 climate resources improved at mid-latitude parks though either declined or moderately improved for parks in arid and tropical locations. Discussion, limitations, and future research directions are provided.
... These findings confirm the study by and Akadiri, Beckun et al., 2019). According to the works by (Becken et al., 2003;and Bigano et al., 2006) the tourism industry is highly energy-intensive so it has negative impact on the environment. Our findings confirm the works by (Becken et al., 2003 andBigano et al., 2006). ...
... According to the works by (Becken et al., 2003;and Bigano et al., 2006) the tourism industry is highly energy-intensive so it has negative impact on the environment. Our findings confirm the works by (Becken et al., 2003 andBigano et al., 2006). It is worth mentioning that human development reduces carbon emissions. ...
The study investigates the effect of international tourist advents on carbon dioxide discharges in a panel set of hundred countries ranked in order of arrival of tourists over 1995 to 2014, under the background of EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) postulate. A multivariate model is adopted grounded on the “Kaya Identity” where the long-run relation concerning the arrival of tourists and carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere are examined through the linkages of economic growth (proxied through new night light data sets), energy intensity use, physical capital formation and human capital formation. The results based on the panel cointegration corroborates the long-run equilibrating association across the set of observations. The methodology of FMOLS, the mean group estimates, DOLS estimation and the Correlated Effects Mean Group estimate enumerate the long-run estimates. Further the results confirm the following causality relationships: tourism-driven emission; economic growth led emission; tourism-driven growth of the economy and gross capital in fixed terms leading the growth of the economy in the short run, built on the Granger causality Wald test. The paper concludes that proper policy direction towards sustainable tourism can reduce emission from tourism in the long run. R and D should focus on the development of green technology and cleaner technology in the tourism ancillary industries.
... Warm and dry weather condition influence outdoor leisure, i.e., visiting beach and park. Rain, snow, windy, cold, and hot weather have impact on selection of transportation mode and decreased number of destination [26,27,21]. Tao et al. [28] find that changes in particular temperature and rainfall induce significant number of bus riders. ...
... Our models obtain an average accuracy (AUC-72.77%) in predicting users' activity/venue/transportation mode from a comprehensive list of weather parameters. We note that while prior literature [20,21,26,27] employ only a few weather parameters (e.g., temperature, precipitation) or weather in general (e.g., rain, snow) for prediction, we have used 13 weather parameters in our experiments. Furthermore, while a prior study [16] has been conducted to identify users' activities from GPS dataset based on weather, our study makes fusion of datasets between social media, i.e., Foursquare and weather. ...
In recent years, Location-Based Social Networking (LBSN) sites such as Foursquare, Facebook Places, and Twitter have become extremely popular due to the extensive usage of location-enabled smart phone technologies. These LBSNs allow users to post their check-ins that provide important set of information about users’ activities and preferences. Several existing research works predict users’ activities from social media check-ins data considering various aspects such as time, venue, and occurrences. However, none of the earlier studies investigate the influence of weather on users’ preferences of activities and mode of transportation preferences. Psychological studies show that weather has a strong influence on human activities. In this paper, we predict users’ travel mode, day/night time activities and future visit from weather condition derived from social media check-ins. In particular, we develop several classification models to predict users’ preferable mode of transportation, day/night activities, and future visits from the users’ check-ins based on different weather conditions. We use two real datasets: Tokyo and New York city to validate our models. Our classifiers achieve substantial strength (on an average AUC of 72.77%) to predict users’ mode of transportation, day/night activities and their future visit preferences for Tokyo dataset. We also compare performance of the classifiers developed by these two datasets.
... Then, first, we center our attention to the short-run relationship between weather and tourist behavior. In this context, although weather conditions are widely seen as an important factor for tourism behavior (Moreno et al., 2008;Bigano et al., 2005;Bigano et al., 2006;Atzori et al., 2018) Second, we center our attention in the fact that favourable climate conditions for tourism often also imply favourable conditions for infectious diseases, with the ensuing development constraints on countries' tourist sectors. Although, in general, ...
... Tourism stands out for its substantial adaptive capacity, which must be combined with other uncertainties concerning the implementation of future mitigation policies and their impacts on transportation systems, together with the wide range of climate change impacts on destinations and broader impacts on society and economic development . However, previous studies (Hamilton et al., 2005;Bigano et al., 2006;Hamilton and Tol, 2007;Rosselló and Santana, 2014) 3. How can we increase the understanding and forecasting of international tourism movements worldwide by a more accurate analysis of income, which is the main 6 determinant of tourism demand. ...
In the last two decades, there have been significant researches that focus on association between climate change and tourism. However, researchers also have shown how income is more important variable than temperature, for international tourism demand. This thesis deeply analyzes three of these topics that include both short-term and long-term prospective. This thesis, not only, evaluated climate change effect on tourist flow, but also consider travel related diseases impact on international tourism demand. Moreover, most significant variable, income has been explored separately, with some new insights. The analysis includes both time series and panel data, with multiple statistical techniques including ARIMAX and Gravity model. The studies result will contribute significantly by overcoming current limitations and enhanced information for policy making.
En les últimes dues dècades, s'han dut a terme múltiples investigacions que han centrat la seva atenció en les interrelacions entre el canvi climàtic i el turisme. Amb tot, els investigadors han mostrat com la renda acaba sent el més important que la temperatura a l’hora de determinar la demanda turística internacional. Aquesta tesi analitza amb profunditat tres temes que inclouen tant prospectiva a curt termini com a llarg termini. Aquesta tesi persegueix així, en primer lloc, avaluar l'efecte del canvi climàtic sobre el flux turístic de manera directe a través de l’anàlisi de les condicions meteorològiques sobre l’interès turístic d’un destí, en segon lloc, considerar l'impacte de les malalties relacionades amb els viatges sobre la demanda turística internacional i, en tercer lloc, aprofundir en la variable més significativa en el models de demanda, la renda, per millorar les prediccions a llarg termini. L'anàlisi es du a terme amb l’estudi de les sèries temporals i amb dades del panell, amb diverses tècniques estadístiques, incloent ARIMAX i els models gravitacionals. Els resultats dels estudis s’esperi que contribueixen significativament al coneixement de l’àrea i permetin una formulació de polítiques més acurada.
En las últimas dos décadas, se han realizado importantes investigaciones centradas en las interrelaciones entre el cambio climático y el turismo. En este sentido, sin embargo, los investigadores han demostrado que la renta acaba siendo una variable más relevante que la temperatura la hora de determinar la demanda turística internacional. Esta tesis analiza en profundidad tres temas que inciden en la prospectiva de la demanda turística a corto y a largo plazo. Esta tesis, persigue así, no sólo evaluar el los efectos de las condiciones meteorológicas sobre los flujos turísticos, sino que también considerar el impacto de las enfermedades infecciosas sobre la demanda turística internacional y finalmente analizar el papel de la renta con el fin de presentar algunas ideas nuevas sobre su impacto a largo plazo. El análisis incluye tanto series temporales como datos de panel, con múltiples técnicas estadísticas, como ARIMAX y el modelo de gravedad. El resultado de estos estudios se espera que puedan contribuir significativamente a superar las limitaciones actuales y permitan una mejora en la formulación de políticas más ajustada
... In the short term, floods cause indirect, economic damage through the decrease of consumption and, consequently, of income due to the interruption of business activities. Floods may also cause indirect impacts in the long term, namely through changes in tourist behavior and destination choice [14,15], communication and promotion channels, the local community, local jobs, and public budgets. In this context, in order to effectively evaluate the damage caused by floods, a dynamic adjustment must be carried out. ...
... Local authorities must recondition the complex after flooding events, making it attractive and accessible to visitors. Corroborating previous studies' contributions [14][15][16], this implies direct costs, but also indirect ones, since a significant part of the local tourist influx is drawn by this attraction, and tourism impacts other local industries (i.e., commerce, food, accommodations). ...
Thermal baths are the main touristic attraction of Ourense (Galicia, Spain). Therefore, protecting and potentializing the resources related to this type of tourism is essential for the province. Most of these resources are located by the banks or nearby rivers, which makes them particularly susceptible to flooding, a very common phenomenon throughout the province. In this context, vulnerability analysis, and particularly flooding damage evaluation, are of utmost importance to this area. Considering this scenario, the present study consists of a preliminary analysis of a historical-heritage tourism resource’s vulnerability to flooding. To this end, the study examines the visitation patterns to the Aquis Querquennis complex (Bande, Ourense, Spain), which is located by the banks of the As Conchas reservoir, and the water levels of said reservoir. The complex is a touristic resource with great historical value. Apart from the thermal baths, it encompasses a military campsite and a hostel. The Roman complex attracts a constant tourist flow, which has a positive socioeconomic impact to the area. The analysis showed that there is a correlation between the number of visits and flooding patterns. Increased levels of water are a hinderance for those willing to access the attraction. Consequently, there is a negative relationship between water level and number of visitors.
... Destination choice and tourism demand are also contingent on the climate in tourists' place of origin. Asymmetries exist in climate preferences across different source markets as the discrepancy between the climate in home places of tourists and that in their selected tourist destination frames their perceptions of climate (Bigano, Hamilton, & Tol, 2006). Scott, Gossling and de Freitas (2008) suggested that the preferred temperature of Swedish respondents is higher by almost 4 C and 2 C than that of their New Zealand and Canadian counterparts, respectively. ...
... Gao & Kerstetter, 2016;Li, 2004). This consensus signifies that the relatively high-level air quality in the intent destination as demand for climate-related elements mainly stems from discrepancy between tourism destinations and places of origin (Bigano et al., 2006). Therefore, considering the year-round dynamic changes, air quality can be regarded as a critical pushing escape stimulator. ...
Tourism is largely dependent on climate and weather, and thus climatic attributes are expected to alter decisions of tourists. Utilising transaction data from a leading online travel agent (OTA) in China, this study explores the impacts of air quality, a critical environmental indicator, on outbound tourism demand whilst considering the moderating effects of disposable income at the city level. Empirical results show that air quality in the place of origin creates a pushing effect as local outbound tourism demand increases as air quality deteriorates. This relationship is negatively moderated by local disposable income level. This study also identifies a delay effect of five days in the impacts of air quality on outbound tourism demand. The theoretical contributions and implications of these findings for the operation management of OTAs and tourism destinations are presented at the end of this study.
... Because tourism is a climate dependent industry, literature reveals that some destinations are likely to experience improved attractiveness due to better weather conditions (Amelung et al., 2010;Gossling & Hall, 2006b;Kaenzig et al., 2016), whilst other areas will be severely affected and become less appealing to tourists (Bigano et al., 2006;Buzinde et al., 2010;Saarinen et al., 2012b;Jopp et al., 2010;Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009). Hamilton et al. (2005) further note that long haul travel would become unattractive thereby forcing tourists to opt for local or regional destinations. ...
... While all forms of travel and tourism will eventually be impacted by climate change, some of the most devastating impacts will occur in tourism activities built around nature (e.g. wildlife, skiing) (Bigano et al., 2006;Dube, 2003;Moswete & Dube, 2013;Mbaiwa et al., 2009;Saarinen et al., 2012a;Sanchez et al., 2012). Some changes, such as the melting polar gaps, are generally accepted by nearly all as signs of global warming, while other climate changes continue to be topics that are hotly disputed among some groups of non-scientists, especially in the United States. ...
... Climate is also an asset that determines the comparative advantages (Ritchie & Crouch, 2003) and affects the attractiveness (Hu & Ritchie, 1993) of particular destinations. It also impacts the destination image perception (Baloglu & Mangaloglu, 2001;Echtner & Ritchie, 1991;Gallarza, Saura, & Garcia, 2002;Hanlan & Kelly, 2005;Pike, 2002), the preferences and demands (Lise & Tol, 2002;Bigano, Hamilton, & Tol, 2006;Carey, 2012;Jonathon, Natalie, Sandra, & Keith, 2013), and the decision choices (Gossling, Bredberg, Randow, Svensson, & Swedlin, 2006;Hamilton & Lau, 2005;Lohmann & Kaim, 1999) among tourists. However, climate has notably been studied as an external or additional element of destinations or tourist attractions rather than as an active input of tourism activity from natural and cultural climate resource perspectives in product development. ...
... In addition, the natural climate resource of 24 Jieqi affects the supply of particular tourism products and their success in attracting tourists (Bigano et al, 2006). For instance, the CTRIP (biggest online travel agent) seizes the opportunity of climate tourism in 24 Jieqi and provides 24 Jieqi with the agricultural experience of tourism products, which focuses on parent-offspring tourists in Beijing (YKWH, 2017). ...
This paper explores the implications for climate tourism development that follows the 2016 decision by UNESCO to add a traditional cultural understanding of the annual seasonal changes in Chinese “intangible culture.” The calendar year was divided into 24 equal parts (Jieqi) to aid agricultural practices. Thus, each Jieqi was associated with farming, social, and cultural practices. Given a growing concern with the climate in general and a need to adopt environment friendly practices, this paper describes the nature of this traditional pattern of thought. The paper then proceeds to argue that climate tourism products that can create better awareness of man's influences on the environment can be developed based on Chinese heritage and practice. For sustainable development, the knowledge system of 24 Jieqi climate tourism product that promote multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, and trans-disciplinary communication has been emphasized in this paper.
... Unforeseen bad weather conditions will have a negative effect on tourists' well-being and activities (Scott et al., 2008). Some researchers report the air temperature as the most important factor for tourist comfort (Bigano et al., 2006). For German tourists, the main reason for visiting the Mediterranean Sea during the summer is the climate (Kozak, 2002). ...
The purpose of this article is to determine if the weather affects the length of tourist stays at Norwegian campsites across different Norwegian regions. We use monthly data on visitors divided by counties and regions for the summer months over a five-year period to accompany the data on weather. We provide insight on the weather through figures, while the article's research question is answered with linear regression mod els. The conclusion is that there is a significant correlation between temperature and the length of time guests spend in a particular geographical area. But the impact is greatest for those who spend the night in tents and caravans. This analysis failed to prove any correlation between temperature and length of stay. The paper does not investigate other factors that may affect the duration of tourists' stay at a campsite.
... This phenomenon could be due to novelty seeking, as most people enjoy experiencing something different from their home place. Bigano et al. (2006) pointed out that domestic tourism was not well researched in terms of the relationship between climate and tourist destination choice. Given the role of climate differences between origins and destinations on tourism demand, climate distance is crucial to consider when modeling domestic tourism demand in the context of a large country such as China. ...
This study investigated whether regional differences in economic, socio-psychological, and environmental distance affect tourists' destination choices. Taking Hangzhou, China, as a case, macro- and micro-level data were integrated to examine the effects of multi-dimensional distance on the city's tourism demand via a panel gravity model. All six distance variables were identified as influencing factors, but their effects varied in size and direction. Tourists' behavior has changed since COVID-19; as such, distance effects before and after its emergence were identified. Tourists were less sensitive to economic distance and price differences following the pandemic and tended to favor more culturally and climatically different destinations. The terror management theory was introduced to explain the shift in tourists' choices. Findings provide implications for destination management and marketing amid the pandemic.
... Tourism departments are concerned with the factors that affect the activity and movement of tourists. Climate is considered among the most important factors affecting tourism in terms of time and location such that a tourist seeks knowledge of appropriate locations and times in terms of climate (Bigano et al. 2005). ...
This study aims to implement a widely used climate tourism index (TCI) developed by Mieczkowski (Can Geogr/Geogr Can 29:220-233, 1985) in a hot arid climate. This index provides a quantitative measure of a tourist destination based on five meteorological criteria, daytime comfort index (CID), daily comfort index (CIA), precipitation index (P), sunshine duration index (S), and wind speed (W). This index provides five qualitative classifications, namely excellent, very good, good, acceptable, and unfavorable. The climatic tourism index is applied to 12 destinations, chosen to represent the various geographic zones in Saudi Arabia. A great deal of disparity both spatially and temporally was observed. For instance, high-altitude regions situated in the western parts of the country experience favorable index values during the entire course of the year. Most other areas experience favorable climatic conditions during the winter months but are subject to very unfavorable climate conditions during the summer months. The landscape surrounding the two holy Moslem sites, Makkah and Al Madinah, experience excellent conditions from December through March, but experience very low values during the summer months.
... The predominant climate of the Ethiopian highlands is tropical monsoon, which is generally cooler than other regions at similar proximity to the equator due to elevation (Eshetu, 2014b). Climate and weather are important factors in tourists' decision making and also influence the successful operation of tourism businesses (Bigano et al., 2005). Since the weather will influence how enjoyable experience is, tourists' satisfaction is likely to be at least partly dependent on the weather during their trip . ...
Community-based ecotourism is a type of tourism that takes economic, environmental, and socio-cultural sustainability into account. This research aimed to identify tourism potentials for community-based ecotourism business development and mountain ecosystem conservation for livelihood improvement in the area near Bela Mountain. A cross-sectional study design with the mixed method was employed. Key informants' data were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. The majority, 88.8% agreed that Bela Mountain has huge natural physical tourism potentials and 91.3% of respondents agreed that the site has huge biological tourism potentials for community-based ecotourism development. Those biological tourism resources have a significant value for ecosystem conservation. The study area is full of man-made ecotourism potentials and the area is gifted with major cultural ecotourism resources. A combination of spectacular land scenery, diversified flora species, amazing cliffs and caves makes Bela Mountain and its environs a rich opportunity for the development of community-based ecotourism.
... First, those studies assessing either a 'global' culture or a 'general' tourism segment indicate a wide range of possibilities for 'optimal' thermal preferences. For example, Hamilton and Lau (2005) and Bigano et al. (2006) utilized international tourist arrival data to determine the thermal preferences of tourists; both resulted in the optimal thermal temperature coinciding with the 'slightly cool' ASHRAE category. Conversely, Maddison (2001), in a review of general tourism demand for travelers from the United Kingdom, found an optimal temperature coinciding with the 'warm' ASHRAE category. ...
... • Adapting to vacation plans, selection of visit places and outdoor activities [31][32][33][34][35][36][37] Community • Maintaining sea walls, replenishing sea ridges, replanting mangroves, nourishing beaches, conserving coral reefs and relocating water resources, systematic planning and managing of adaptation by political entities in the locality, and community control over adaptation investments [38] • Community involvement [38][39][40][41][42][43][44] Adaptation to fishing • Alternative fishing livelihoods [45] • Diversify livelihoods; implement insurance schemes; promote adaptive management frameworks [46] • Enhance monitoring programs through community-based approaches, establish early warning systems for extreme events, adaptive fisheries management in response to climate change [47] Sea-level change, flooding, and wave surges ...
Background
Adaptation is a process of adjusting to the current or expected climate change. The varied adverse outcomes enable people towards necessary adaptation. People living in disaster-prone areas go through a relatively higher frequency of emergencies and exigencies. Gradually people learn to cope with stress and over a while, they develop various strategies for adaptation. The ability to rapidly adapt to such changes helps people to better fit in the environment and prepare themselves for future emergencies. There is no instrument available to measure psychosocial adaptation objectively. The current study reports on the development and validation of psychosocial adaptation instrument.
Methods
Cross-sectional study design was adopted for the study. The study population consisted of people living in high-intensity hazard zones for cyclones, earthquakes, and floods in the Cuttack city of Odisha in India. The development of psychosocial adaptation instrument consisted of two phases. Content validity index, Kappa statistic, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were measured. Adopting the multistage sampling method a total of 400 samples were selected using the KISH method and were interviewed. Exploratory factor analysis was attempted to assess the factor structure. Further, the performance of items and total scale were analyzed using the item response theory approach.
Results
The psychosocial adaptation instrument showed excellent validity of individual items (I-CVI range: 0.75 to 1.00) and good Kappa (Kappa range: 0.71 to 1.00). The Kuder-Richardson coefficient for the 50 items was (KR20 = 0.851) suggesting that the items have good internal consistency. The test-retest reliability ICC estimate of single measures was 0.916 (95% CI: 0.796, 0.959). Three items were removed as the discrimination parameters were found to be less than one in the item response theory analysis.
Conclusion
The developed instrument is valid and has acceptable test-retest reliability. This instrument could pave a new way of quantifying the psychosocial adaption strategies that are widely used by people living in a disaster-prone area.
... For the internal data, the seasonality and weather of the destination are highly important. Tourism industry is highly seasonal (Buhalis, 2000;Amelung et al., 2007;Song & Li, 2008) and some activities highly depend on the weather information (Bigano et al., 2006;Becken, 2013). For example, the beach destinations are mostly visited during the summer while ski stations are crowded during the winter. ...
This chapter aims to underline how Big Data is shaping the tourism and hospitality industry. From a destination management perspective, this chapter illustrates (1) the different sources of internal and external data in tourism; (2) the challenges faced by the tourism and hospitality firms in the era of Big Data, and (3) how Big Data is changing the role of the Destination Management Organisations (DMOs) and their organisational structure in order to meet the need of the local stakeholders. Drawing upon studies of Li et al. (Big Data in Tourism Research: A Literature Review. Tourism Management, 68, 301–323 (2018)) and Sheehan et al. (The Use of Intelligence in Tourism Destination Management: An Emerging Role for DMOs. International Journal of Tourism Research, 18(6), 549–557 (2016)), this chapter proposes a conceptual framework of destination management in the era of Big Data. This chapter also provides insightful information for tourism and hospitality professionals and directives for overcoming the challenges faced by tourism stakeholders of destinations. It also encourages both DMOs and other stakeholders to collaborate in collecting, mining, and analysing Big Data required for the success of their businesses.
... However, the conduct and availability of evaluations of Caribbean tourism supply-side weather and climate information needs represents a persistent gap in the literature. Although the use of weather and climate information in tourists' choice of destination has been comprehensively explored (Bigano et al., 2006;Eugenio-Martin and Campos-Soria, 2010;Hamilton and Lau, 2005;Matzarakis, 2006;Rutty and Scott, 2013), less is known about the use of climate information in tourism supply-side operational and destination management decisionmaking (Scott and Lemieux, 2010;Scott et al., 2011;de Freitas, 2003). The use of climate information by tourism suppliers has been explored more recently in the context of the United States (Ayscue et al., 2015); Austria (Damm et al., 2017); and the South Pacific (Nalau et al., 2017). ...
Peer reviewed literature on the availability and use of climate services in the operations and management of tourism is scarce. Using a multi-method approach, we provide insights on both basic and specialised climate information utilised by a range of public and private sector tourism decision-makers in the most tourism-dependent region in the world - the Caribbean. We also examined whether existing climate information meets tourism destination planning, marketing and operational decision-making needs and how the tourism industry could more effectively and efficiently integrate climate information to enhance sector performance. Results from research with 47 Caribbean hoteliers and tourism policy-makers show that short-term destination and source market weather information are widely consulted, but the use of historical climate information and longer-term climate forecasts is comparatively lower. There are few tailored climate information products and services, and uptake of the few that exist is low. Current climate information inadequately fulfills decision-makers’ needs due to a number of challenges, including a short history of engagement between the climate and tourism communities, along with a partial understanding of the needs and preferences of tourism stakeholders. Evidence suggests that a new generation of specialised climate information products can enhance climate risk management amongst tourism suppliers. Further research and relationship building will be needed to support the co-production and uptake of tailored climate information for the Caribbean tourism sector. Tourism-dependent Small Island Developing States in other regions interested in pursuing climate services for tourism can learn from the experience and approach used in the Caribbean.
... Table 3.6. Factors of concern across state parks and public reserved lands for the upcoming summer season given the COVID-19 pandemic…………………………………………………58 Understanding the impacts of environmental changes in Maine is important as there is a direct relationship amongst weather, climate, and outdoor recreation (Amelung et al., 2007;Bigano et al., 2005). Climate directly influences outdoor recreation by affecting the number of people willing to recreate outdoors, regulating when certain activities such as biking and skiing can occur, and overall influencing the experiences of individuals (Richardson & Loomis, 2004;Scott & McBoyle, 2007). ...
Rapid climate change in recent decades has impacted forest, coastal, and social systems globally. In the northeastern U.S., alterations to the seasonal timing and duration of phenology cycles are a direct result of increasing temperatures, and monitoring these changes serves as a valuable indicator to analyze the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, increasing temperatures can influence when and how visitors recreate in natural landscapes. In the past decade, outdoor spaces have seen an increase in the number of visitors, partly as a result of climate change, that has influenced how resource managers and tourism suppliers plan for and respond to the impacts of visitation changes. In Maine, increased visitation and usage of public lands and coastal tourism destinations, such as Mount Desert Island (MDI), have altered the locations and timing of when people visit and how they interact and recreate within these spaces. For resource managers and tourism operators to successfully adapt and plan for continued changes to phenology and park visitation it is necessary to understand (1) how increasing temperatures will impact forests at different scales and (2) how to effectively apply both short and long-term visitation and natural resource management plans. Here we use an interdisciplinary approach to integrate biophysical and social science methods to: (1) estimate forest phenology response to multiple climate variables at different spatial and temporal scales across Maine, (2) understand resource managers’ perceptions of the impacts of climate change and the perceived barriers to incorporating adaptation strategies into decision-making, and (3) identify climate change impacts in Maine and develop planning priorities for tourism operators. To accomplish these goals, we first analyzed three vegetation phenology metrics derived from satellite imagery. We built linear mixed effects models to identify relevant climate and environmental variables which most influence the onset of the three phenology metrics. Using two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, our results indicate that by 2100 the range of the onset of Greenup will occur 19-33 days earlier, Peak 13-21 days earlier, and Dormancy 5 days earlier than their 16-year average (2001-2017). In addition, an online questionnaire of 61 management personnel within the Maine Bureau of Parks and Lands revealed that the most significant barriers to adopting effective adaptation strategies include uncertainties of the effects of climate change, insufficient staffing, and lack of time. Furthermore, managers observed a dramatic increase in the number of visitors to lands managed by the PBL during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, to understand how some tourism operators on Mount Desert Island, Maine, are preparing for observed changes in climate and visitation, we conducted a series of participatory workshops and found that community engagement and cohesive communication are key to cope with the impacts of climate change and increased visitation. The interdisciplinary approach used here further quantifies how climate change is influencing the timing and duration of key phenological events in Maine and can be used to predict how those trends will continue through the century. Our results provide insights for tourism operators and recreation managers to prepare and adapt for continued changes to Maine’s natural landscapes resulting from global stressors, like climate change.
... Hamilton et al. (2005) also applied the PTCM to investigate the changes in climatic conditions at tourist destinations in Germany. This study identified 24°C as the optimal temperature for tourism (Hamilton et al., 2005), while Bigano et al. (2006) This model recommended that the highest optimal temperature for tourism should be 14°C (Hamilton et al., 2005). These studies further suggested that tourists have a similar preference in climatic conditions for tourism, regardless of the country they are from. ...
Good weather and favourable climate are vital resources for tourism, particularly nature-based tourism (NBT). Weather plays a pivotal role in selecting tourist activities and the overall experience of the trip, while climate influences the timing of the trip, the range of activities offered, and the natural environment experiences which attract tourists. This influence is amplified in countries located in the global South, which have little to no adaptative capacity to ameliorate unfavourable climatic conditions and extreme weather experiences. This study presents the first comprehensive tourism and climate change analysis in Zimbabwe, and used a mixed-methods approach to: (1) assess tourists’ perceptions of climate change; (2) explore tourism stakeholders’ perceptions of climate change and their adaptation strategies; and (3) investigate the climatic suitability of Zimbabwe for tourism at various selected locations across the country. This comprehensive assessment is the first of its kind in Southern African tourism and climate change research which triangulates three different sets of empirical findings in evaluating Zimbabwean climate suitability and climate change perceptions, which enhanced the credibility of the research findings. For the tourists’ perceptions, closed and open-ended questionnaires were used, while semi-structured interviews were conducted with tourism stakeholders to investigate their climate change perceptions and the adaptation strategies they employ. For climate suitability, the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) was calculated. The results from the TCI highlight that the mean annual TCI scores for Zimbabwe range between 75.5-83 (100 being the maximum score), classifying the country as having “very good” to “excellent” climatic conditions for tourism, while the mean monthly TCI scores range from 53.8 “good” to 86 also “excellent” climatic conditions for tourism for the period under study 1989-2014. These results were then triangulated with questionnaire results from tourists and semi-structured interviews with various tourism stakeholders at the selected locations around Zimbabwe. These three sets of results largely complemented each other where thermal comfort is the most important climatic variable considered for tourism climate suitability by the TCI, the tourists and the tourism stakeholders, and hence addressed the knowledge gap in Southern African climate change and tourism.
... Forecasting tourist visits is done by processing and analyzing the time series data patterns. These data are non-stationary, nonlinear and difficult to use to develop accurate forecasting models, because tourist visits are influenced by many factors, including the holiday season [3], economy [4], weather [5], plague [6], facilities [7]. ] and other factors [8]. ...
Estimates of tourist visits is very important to determining policy and decision making. This study proposed a new method for forecasting tourist visits. A case study was conducted at a tourist spot in Sumenep, Indonesia. The model proposed is data decomposition and optimization of learning against tourist visits data. Data decomposed use the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, then data learning use the Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) which was optimized using the Polak-Ribiere Conjugate Gradient (PCG). The two methods are integrated to produce accurate forecasts. Several patterns of learning data were carried out in this experiment. The results of this method show good permformance results as measured used RMSE and MSE.
... Bigano et al. (2006) use a similar model for tourist destination choice, with climate at destination at the bottom and climate at origin at the top. ...
I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I test it on a sample of 160 countries over the period 1950-2014. Temperature and rainfall determine production possibilities in both rich and poor countries; positively in cold countries and negatively in hot ones. Weather anomalies reduce inefficiency in rich countries but increase inefficiency in poor and hot countries; and more so in countries with low weather variability. The climate effect is larger that the weather effect.
... Cost was considered a critical variable for most of our individual decisions (or consumer decisions). The choice of the variables to include was climate, culture, cost and competitiveness (Bigano et al., 2006;Cohen, 2009;Scott et al., 2016;Williams & Baláž, 2015). Finally, prior experience needed to be taken into account as it reduces uncertainty about a destination and, if positive, increases the probability of returning to the destination, while if negative it significantly reduces that probability (Gursoy & McCleary, 2004;Lehto et al., 2004;Oppermann, 2000). ...
... Climate comfort is a key factor affecting the population's mobility in the natural environment so that it is also an important factor affecting tourism development. e climate comfort conditions are an important determinant of tourists' choice for destinations [5][6][7][8]. ...
Based on the daily climate data from 839 meteorological stations covering the 2014–2017 period in the mainland of China, the Universal Thermal Climate Indices (UTCI) were calculated and the UTCI of 247 national 5A tourist attractions in the mainland of China are obtained with ordinary kriging interpolation method. Then, a spatial analysis of all the attractions was carried out based on UTCI. The results showed that the mainland of China’s annual average UTCI is generally distributed as strip-belts along a latitudinal direction and the climate comfort level gradually decreases from south to north. Significant regional differences in climate comfort results are obtained between the southeast coastal areas and the northwest inland. It was found that the number of attractions with the best climate comfort level is relatively high in spring and autumn while it is less in summer and winter. Considering the climate comfort levels, the attractions are grouped into five categories of “comfortable during spring and autumn,” “comfortable during winter,” “comfortable during spring, autumn, and winter,” “comfortable during spring, summer, and autumn,” and “uncomfortable during the four seasons” to carry out the study for determining the most convenient period of the year in terms of climate comfort.
... us, climate change could affect botanical tourism by simultaneously changing plant phenology and tourists' physical comfort [3,4]. ...
Climate change could affect botanical tourism by altering the plant phenology (e.g., flowering and leaf coloring date) and the physical comfort of tourists. To date, few studies have simultaneously considered the influence of plant phenology and physical comfort on the travel suitability of botanical tourism. Taking Beijing as an example, this study used phenological data of 73 species from 1963 to 2017 to construct a phenological ornamental index (POI) according to the flowering and leaf coloring date of ornamental plant. The climate comfort index (CCI) of tourism was calculated by using meteorological data of the corresponding periods. Finally, the travel suitability index (TSI) was constructed by integrating the two indices (POI and CCI). The POI showed that the best period for spring flower viewing was from April 4 to May 10, while the best period for autumn leaves viewing was from October 11 to November 6 on average. According to the variation of the CCI within the year, the most comfortable period for spring tourism was matched with the best period for spring flower viewing (April 4 to June 1), but the most comfortable period for autumn tourism (September 4 to October 19) was earlier than the best period for autumn leaves viewing. The TSI indicated that the best periods for spring and autumn botanical tourism were April 7 to May 10 and October 10 to November 7, respectively. Based on the climate data under different scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we simulated the climate and phenological suitability for botanical tourism in the next thirty years. The results showed that the best period for spring botanical tourism during 2040–2050 was earlier and the period for autumn botanical tourism was later than that in the past 55 years. Meanwhile, the duration would shorten by 2–7 days for both seasons. This study provided a reference for assessing the impact of global climate change on the best season of botanical tourism.
... Among factors measuring weather change, temperature is the most commonly used weather variable in explaining tourism decisions (Álvarez-Díaz & Rosselló-Nadal, 2010; Rosselló-Nadal, Riera-Font, & Cárdenas, 2011). Most studies confirm that local temperature is one significantly influential factor in choosing a tourist destination (Bigano, Hamilton, & Tol, 2006;Bujosa & Rosselló, 2012;Lyons, Mayor, & Tol, 2009;Maddison, 2001;Serquet & Rebetez, 2011;Uyarra et al., 2005), but it is not a significant factor for Dutch tourists (Lise & Tol, 2002). Apart from temperature variable, other weather variables like rainfall, cloud cover, humidity, sunshine and wind speed can be found in the literature. ...
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of both economic and noneconomic factors on the domestic tourist flow to Khanh Hoa province in the long run and the short run by using the general-to-specific approach. The findings reveal that weather variables have a significant effect on the tourism demand in the short run and long run. Furthermore, a positive effect from the lagged dependent variable suggests that word-of-mouth recommendation to potential tourists provides good signs in term of the Khanh Hoa tourism industry. Also, the demand for Vietnamese tourists seems to be highly sensitive to tourism costs. Therefore, a small increase in consumer prices or transportation prices will result in a strong decline in the domestic tourism demand. Knowledge of effects of these variables on the domestic tourism demand is valuable to tourism operators in Khanh Hoa province.
... Most previous studies on this aspect of tourism have been conducted in America [34] and Britain [35][36][37], Germany [38], the Netherlands [39], few studies has been conducted in southern China [1]. In addition, most studies to date have focused on the urban level, and very few have focused on the commercial pedestrian block. ...
With the development of the economy in China, the tourism industry has become a form of daily entertainment for citizens. Commercial pedestrianized blocks have been designed as recreational centers for tourists, serving as outdoor public space and scenic spots. The use of these regions is directly determined by the outdoor thermal environment. So far, few studies have been conducted on tourists' thermal experience in commercial pedestrianized blocks, especially in the hot and humid region of southern China. Using field measurement and numerical simulation of a commercial pedestrianized block in Fo Shan, China, to research tourists' thermal experience under different conditions, the final results of this study could help to select the most suitable time for tourist travel and help local managers to improve the thermal environment.
... In additation, the literatures stated that regarding the revisit intention of tourists, there is a link between destination resources, landscape values, activity opportunities, saticfaction and tourist motivation [7,8,9]. At the same time, natural, cultural and physical potentials, sufficient infrastructures and superstructures (such as accommodation, transportation, tourist activities, shopping centers, and attraction centers), regional conditions [10], transportation alternatives, diversity of information and communication resources, work and social environment [11] and climate conditions also play roles on revisit intention [12,13]. Other than the demographic profiles of tourists, their previous holiday satisfactions and travel motivations may directly affect their preferences on paying a visit to the same destination; in other words, they show visitor's loyalty in their next touristic trip [14,15,16]. ...
... Tourism Climate Index: As listed in Bakhtiari et al., (2013) several indicators have been developed to determine the suitability of climatic conditions for the practice of tourism activities over the past 40 years (Mieczkowski, 1985;Freitas, 1990;Becker, 1998;Morgan et al., 2000;Maddison, 2001;Lise & Tol, 2002;Hamilton & Lau, 2005;Bigano et al., 2006). The most widely used is the tourism climate index (TCI). ...
Tourism is one of the leading sources of income, crucial to Egypt's
economy where it contributes more than 7.2% of GDP and 14.4% of foreign currency revenues. The objective of the research is to investigate the impacts of climate change on tourism sector and expecting the future tourism performance of cities. The research has chosen Hurghada, the leading attracting coastal city on the Red Sea for foreign tourist as a case study. The mean monthly data of temperature, rainfall, moisture, wind speed and sun radiation derived by the regional climate model developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHIRCA35) for the two climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 used to achieve this objective. These data used for Hurghada climate zone for the future time period of 2005-2050. The impacts of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios on Hurghada tourism sector will be estimated based on the application of the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) that is widely used for the adaptation measure of the climatic suitability for tourism, which examines potential changes in climatic attractiveness of destinations, through the statistical analysis of existing and forecasting meteorological parameters. The research methodology on Hurghada shows a major change expectation in tourism seasons behavior and that climate change will play a major role in changing the climatic seasonal Hurghada tourism performance. The research recommends proactive adaptation strategies rather than reactive policy towards climate change to achieve sustainability and climate change resilience of Hurghada city.
... Due to its economic value, urban tourism became a significant factor increasing the financial income of a city. Most previous studies on tourism assessed data collected through different meteorological stations [3,4] and put forward thermal comfort conditions regardless of the importance of the numerical simulation and questionnaire survey. ...
Ling Nan Tian Di block is in Fo Shan city, which is in the hot-summer and warm-winter climate area of China and is a very important scenic spot. A pedestrianized zone aims to provide a commercial and recreational center for tourists. The utilization of it is determined by the outdoor microclimate, which affects not only humans’ thermal sensation but also the commercial value; thus, putting forward the best time of day to visit this region in extreme summer is very necessary. Using the result of this work, tourists can choose the most comfortable time of day with the most suitable thermal conditions to visit this pedestrianized zone. To this end, we conducted field measurements and numerical simulations to analyze thermal sensation. In addition, a field questionnaire survey was utilized to evaluate the thermal comfort range for tourists. The analyzed result shows that the thermal comfort range of tourists is a physiological equivalent temperature (PET) of 22 to 28 °C and the neutral PET is 25 °C. The final thermal calendar shows that the whole commercial zone is within the comfort range after 7:00 p.m. During the daytime, except for the open space without vegetation, the whole region is in the comfort range from 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.
... En otra investigación, los mismo autores (Bigano et al., 2006a), realizaron un estudio econométrico con datos de 45 países de diferentes continentes y climas, e implementando las variables de llegadas de turistas internacionales, ingreso per capta del país destino, distancia entre los dos países y temperatura media anual del país destino. El cambio climático induciría a las personas a evitar los meses julio y agosto, y tener vacaciones en junio y septiembre en su lugar (en el hemisferio norte). ...
El turismo ha tenido un gran auge en las últimas décadas debido a los beneficios económicos que este sector genera. A nivel internacional, se calcula que el turismo representa el 10% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), emplea a más de 200 millones de personas (11% de todo el empleo), y abarca el 12% de las inversiones, afirma Ayala (2004). En México, las cifras son similares a los estimados internacionales; este sector representa el 9% PIB y genera alrededor de 2.5 millones de empleos directos y más de 5 millones indirectos (STPS, 2011). En Nayarit según datos de INEGI (2009), las actividades terciarias aportaron el 67.51% del PIB, de los cuales los rubros de comercio, alojamiento y hoteles aportan el 20.03% y la transportación el 7.93%. Es decir la actividad turística tiene fuertes ingresos para el estado; por lo que una externalidad como el cambio climático, representa una fuerte amenaza para la economía local.
... As shown in the graph, negative and positive effect sizes of WHS status were found throughout the sample. Interestingly, some studies provided a large range of effect sizes, such as Bigano, Hamilton, and Tol (2006), Freytag and Vietze (2013), Ishii (2012), and Saha and Yap (2014). ...
UNESCO’s World Heritage inscription is considered to positively influence tourism demand. However, relevant econometric research has yielded inconsistent results. In this study, we used a meta-analysis to synthesize the effects of World Heritage Site (WHS) status across 344 econometric estimates from 43 studies. Meta-regression results reveal several factors explaining the effect size of WHS status on tourism demand, such as the research period, level of development in the destination country, heritage type, dyadic data type, WHS endowment measure, and use of robust standard error. A sub-group analysis identifies different factors in developing vs. developed countries and cultural vs. natural WHS types. Lastly, implications are provided for destination/heritage management and tourism researchers based on meta-regression results.
... Climate is a salient resource for tourism and a dominant attribute of a tourist destination [22,39]. It has a major effect on tourism demand, satisfaction and decision-making [40] since tourists are sensitive to climate and climate change [41]. ...
All-for-one tourism is a new viewpoint of tourism development involving overall planning and cooperative mechanisms. Over the past few years, the researchers have put forward many conceptual models to guide the top-level design and specific practice of all-for-one tourism. However, these studies mainly focus on social, economic and cultural effect in mature tourism areas, lacking comprehensive analysis from geographical perspective and neglecting the underdeveloped regions. In this paper, we attempt to apply geographic information system technology to tourism evaluation, exploring the approach of all-for-one tourism development in mountain regions. Zunyi city is selected as the research region and evaluated on the abundance, quality and spatial pattern of tourism resources, climate comfort, natural disaster possibility, and convenience of infrastructure or social service. Multi-source datasets collected from websites, reanalysis data, remote sensing products and observation stations are used. Based on data analysis, some recommendations including enriching cultural tourism products through cultural creativity, ensuring regional coordinated development through spatial optimization, respecting the spatiotemporal characteristics of climate and the laws of nature, and strengthening construction of infrastructure, are discussed to promote the healthy development of all-for-one tourism.
... heat waves, hurricanes). In this context, the literature shows that global warming may cause the weather conditions of lower altitude and latitude to be less attractive to tourists (Amelung et al., 2007;Bigano et al., 2005;Lise and Tol, 2002). Some authors (Bujosa and Rosselló, 2011;2013;Bujosa et al, 2015) identify how increases in the temperature might lead not only to a geographical redistribution of tourist flows in Spain but also to changes of tourist seasonal patterns. ...
This paper presents the results of a choice experiment survey of tourists in Mallorca, Spain, to elicit preferences for designed policies aimed at addressing the attractiveness losses of the destination in the face of global warming. The study is novel in two main ways. First, it introduces the uncertainty deriving from the stochastic nature of global warming, not as a policy attribute but as an inherent feature of the valuation scenario. For this reason, the expected temperature change and its probability of occurrence were kept constant across alternatives but not across different choice tasks. Second, it measures the willingness-to-pay for a set of pro-environmental policies under different framings. Results show that the inclusion of uncertainty shapes individuals' decisions.
... There was no peerreviewed literature available on the impact of climate change on tourism in Thailand. Some research on climate change and beach tourism has received considerable attention within international research [56,57]. Some research indicated that tourists favor countries with a mild sunny climate [58]. ...
The concern about rising global temperatures is powerful in its effect on the tourism economy sector in the top 5 tourist attractions in Thailand. This study aimed to find techniques for using automatic big data RSS feed that is accessible online in mobile push notification and is freely available on the Internet. The programming technique method was applied for data acquisition, statistical process, and mathematical analysis. The outcomes pointed to a lack of study temperature changes on the local scale that provides insufficient information for decision making about tourism management in the local region. The results in this local level study tended to express decreasing temperature. This is not usually consistent with the IPCC scientific consensus summarization. This result could be involved with geography location and monsoon condition control. The temperatures did not have a significant effect on increase in the number of storms in the West Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperature results were in agreement with global scale studies.
... It can be calculated by ∑ ⁄ where is the total international tourist arrival in country k. Apart from the economic variables such as income and prices of tourism, pollution could have impact on satisfaction and choice of destination and period of visit (Bigano, Hamilton and Tol, 2006; Hamilton and Lau, 2005;Maddison, 2001). As a result, it can be suggested that, for tourists concerning their health, a country having higher level of pollution are less likely to be chosen as a visited destination. ...
... The climatic and meteorological conditions both in the tourist's place of origin and in their chosen destination are important motivating elements, and are taken carefully into account in the planning of the trip [25][26][27]. Weather and climate also affect the tourism experience, and by extension, visitor satisfaction [28]. All of these factors have led climate to become an important aspect of the image of the destination due to the enormous power of attraction that it has over the tourist/consumer [29,30]. ...
On the basis of the establishment and analysis of 29 indicators, this article analyses the quality of the climate and meteorological information that is provided to tourists on the websites of the bodies responsible for promoting Spanish tourist destinations at a state and regional level. Official tourism promotion websites are a prominent source of information for tourists, so it is necessary to control the quality levels of the information contained in them. The objective is to detect weaknesses that can be corrected to achieve the improvement of the public service that is offered by these websites. The results indicate that the weather information provided on the institutional websites does not meet the information needs of tourists in the different phases of the travel experience, and as a result contributes little to tactical and strategic decision-making regarding the various activities for tourists, in which the weather or climate are relevant factors. This could make it more difficult for them to interact and integrate with the destination and worsen the quality of their tourist experience.
Depuis l‘occurrence des phénomènes climatiques extrêmes dus aux changements climatiques beaucoup d‘études ont été menée sur différents secteurs de la vie économique, sociale et environnementale. Mais l'ensemble des données disponibles touche très peu le secteur du tourismequi est l’un des plus importants dans la croissance économique des pays du Monde. En conséquence, cette étude vise à mettre en exergue les relations qui lient actuellement le bioclimat humain et le tourisme dans un contexte d’adaptation et de prévision.Pour cette étude, les données touristiques (statistiques d’arrivée, nuitée, nationalité, lieu de provenance) et les données climatologiques (pluie, température, humidité relative, insolation et vent) ont été utilisés. Ces données à l‘aide des calculs statistiques (moyenne, ACP, corrélation de Pearson), des indices bioclimatiques (indice climato-touristique, tension de vapeur) et des investigations sur le terrain, ont permis de déterminer les ambiances de climato-touristiques dans l’espace côtier du Bénin et la perception des acteurs du tourisme sur l’évolution des bioclimats humains sur la période de 1971-2010.Le score ICT dans toutes les villes oscille entre l’acceptable et l’excellent. Le score est plus réduit pendant les mois de saisons de pluie. Quant à la préférence climatique des touristes, plus de 80 % des touristes préfèrent le temps beau et ensoleille contre 10 % de temps chaud et lourd et 2 % de beau temps avec couverture nuageuse. À l’horizon 2020-2039, la baisse des ambiances climato-touristiques serait de l’ordre 2 à 3 % selon les résultats du scénario A1B du modèle ReMO.Plus de 80 % des professionnels ont remarqué une modification dans l’évolution des paramètres climatiques spécifiquement dans la perception du temps ressenti. Sur les 80 % des professionnels du secteur ludique et 40 % du secteur culturel s’accordent sur une conséquence plus ou moins faible sur leurs activités. Par contre 51 % du secteur hôtellerie et restauration s’accorde sur une régression sensible de leurs activités. Ces tendances sont de nature à nécessiter des stratégies d’adaptation dans l’espace côtier du Bénin. Ces stratégies appellent à la connaissance des risques et à la mise en place de dispositifs d’alerte et de gestion des crises adaptés aux populations touristiques.
This book explores the nature of climate change in southern Africa, its impacts on tourism and the resilience, adaptation and governance needs in various tourism operations and environments. Previous studies on climate change and tourism have mainly focused on the Global North and specific forms of tourism such as snow-based winter activities. Drawing on case studies from a wide range of countries including South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe, this book fills this lacuna by describing and analysing the climate change and tourism nexus in the southern African context. The book begins by providing an overview of the current and estimated impacts of climate change to the tourism industry in the region, highlighting the deepening socio-economic inequities, and environmental and social injustices. It focuses on the importance of sustainable tourism in tackling these issues and highlights that resilience and robust governance and policy systems are essential for a tourism destination to successfully adapt to change. By synthesising the key lessons learned through this analysis, Climate Change and Tourism in Southern Africa also draws attention to specific adaptation and policy strategies which have value for other regions in the Global South. This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of climate change, tourism and environmental policy and justice.
Chapter 5 of the June 2011 report by Climate Change Impacts Study Committee, Bank of Greece.
https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Publications/ClimateChange_FullReport_bm.pdf
Input-Output (I/O) multipliers can be used to assess the regional (or national) economic impacts from an activity. Multipliers are derived from an I/O table or matrix (either regional or re-scaled from a national one). An I/O matrix is a representation of national or regional economic accounting that records the way industries both trade with one another and produce for consumption and investments. The flows of products and services are registered, simultaneously by origin and by destination. The use of I/O multipliers for economic impact assessment rests on the fact that the direct effects of spending for a service (e.g. tourism expenditure) are followed by indirect and induced effects. These two types of effects are observed respectively because purchasing links with other industries in the region exist and employees who work in the value chain spend their incomes on regional goods and services.
Since it is commonly assumed that the impact estimates derived from I/O analysis represent activity within a single year, economic impact assessment is mostly used as a one shot assessment. Hence, the method is not especially well adapted to systems approach. I/O multipliers can however be assumed stable during a certain period after the initial calculation of the I/O table (typically up to 6 years), unless the region’s economy has changed significantly. In a systems approach perspective, one can thus yield interesting results in terms of comparisons of scenario impacts (the different scenarios will make the components of the assessment vary), if one works with re-initialization of the impact assessment each year.
Beginning with the establishment of a Supreme
Commission for Tourism and Antiquities’ (SCTA) in 2000,
there have been official attempts by the government of
Saudi Arabia to encourage domestic tourism in order to
tap into the huge amounts that Saudis spend annually
on vacations. This paper examines the motivations and
attitudes of consumers toward tourism destinations and
activities within the country (domestic tourism). Using
data collected through a structured self-administered
questionnaire, the study finds that familiarity and trust
of the local environment, perceptions of the safer domestic environment, and limitations imposed by respondents’ vacation timing are the primary motives for choosing to spend their vacations locally, while lack of quality
domestic tourist sites and services (including entertainment facilities), lack of tourism information, insufficient
tourism organization services, and the harsh local environmental conditions during summer are factors that
‘push’ people from spending the vacations locally. Attitudes toward domestic tourism are generally negative,
although there are significant differences in attitudes
between respondents who prefer domestic destinations
and those who prefer to travel out of Kingdom. Implications of the findings are outlined and discussed.
This article examines methods for measuring climate adaptation and discusses the empirical evidence. The primary methods for measuring climate adaptation are cross-sectional analysis, simulations, and intertemporal panel data. The empirical evidence in the literature suggests that adaptation can be effective at eliminating a large fraction of potential damage from changes in mean climate but not short-term climate variation. Much of the adaptation will likely be incremental and reactive, responding to climate as it changes over time. Private actors have their own incentives to adapt to climate change and are likely to change their behavior if it makes them better off. But government action is needed to ensure that markets are efficient and to support public adaptations, especially those related to water supply, coastal defense, human health, and environmental protection.
Autori su suglasni oko senzibilnosti turističke potražnje na promjene u klimi. Predviđa se da će rast temperature prouzrokovati prostornu i vremensku redistribuciju turističke potražnje. Klimatske promjene promijeniti će standardiziranu sliku sezonskog poslovanja priobalnog kupališnog turizma te učiniti će popularne ljetne destinacije manje privlačnim. Očekuje se da će stabilniji vremenski uvjeti u emitivnom području sa pogodnom klimom utjecati na razvoj domaćeg turizma, čime će potreba za putovanjem u inozemna područja opadati. Nadalje, očekuje se da će se klimatske promjene odraziti različitim intenzitetom među regijama. Navedene implikacije klimatskih promjena jasno projiciraju promjene u ustaljenoj slici turističkih aktivnosti. Pod direktnim utjecajem su priobalne odmorišne destinacije sa formiranom ljetnom turističkom sezonom i sezonskim poslovanjem. Zbog navedenih implikacija klimatskih promjena planiranje u turizmu neće biti zamislivo bez njihovog uvažavanja, posebice u segmentu kupališnog turizma koji je pod najvećom prijetnjom klimatskih promjena. Navedeno će izazvati nove odnose na konkurentom turističkom tržištu.
Ključne riječi: klima, klimatske promjene, turistička potražnja, sezonalnost poslovanja, priobalna odmorišna destinacija
This paper examines the small world hypothesis. The first part of the paper presents empirical evidence on the evolution of a particular world: the world of journal publishing economists during the period 1970-2000. We find that in the 1970's the world of economics was a collection of islands, with the largest island having about 15% of the population. Two decades later, in the 1990's, the world of economics was much more integrated, with the largest island covering close to half the population. At the same time, the distance between individuals on the largest island had fallen significantly. Thus we believe that economics is an emerging small world. What is it about the network structure that makes the world small? An exploration of the micro aspects of the network yields three findings: one, the average number of co-authors is very small but increasing; two, the distribution of co-authors is very unequal; and three, there exist a number of ?stars?, individuals who have a large number of co-authors (25 times the average number) most of whom do not write with each other. Thus the economics world is a set of inter-connected stars. We take the view that individuals decide on whether to work alone or with others; this means that individual incentives should help us understand why the economics world has the structure it does. The second part of the paper develops a simple theoretical model of co-authorship. The main finding of the model is that in the presence of productivity differentials and a shortage of high-productivity individuals, inter-connected stars will arise naturally in equilibrium. Falling costs of communication and increasing credit for joint research leads to greater co-authorship and this is consistent with the growth in the size of the giant component.
Climate has a strong influence on the tourism and recreation sector and in some regions represents the natural resource on which the tourism industry is predicated. There has been little consideration of how climate change might affect the tourism climate resource or how such changes could alter the competitive relationships between tourism destinations. This study used a modified version of Mieczkowski's (1985) 'tourism climate index' (TCI) to explore the impact of projected climate change on the tourism climate resource of a sample of tourism destinations in North America. Conceptual seasonal tourism climate distributions are defined and the current tourism climate index scores of 17 North American cities calculated. All Canadian cities had a 'summer-peak' distribution. Cities in the southern US displayed either a 'winter-peak' or bimodal spring-autumn peak distribution. Los Angeles was the only city examined to approximate a year-round optimal tourism climate distribution. Seasonal tourism climate index scores are then compared with seasonal accommodation costs at five locations, in order to determine whether the tourism climate index reflects tourism demand. Results at each location were positive. Climate change scenarios were constructed from two general circulation models (CGCM2 and HadCM2) for the 2050s and 2080s and integrated into the tourism climate index of eight Canadian cities. The cumulative annual TCI score improved for all of the cities. Seasonally, the impact of climate change varied by location. Seasonal TCI rating improved in each season for cities in western Canada (Calgary, Vancouver and Yellowknife), while the TCI rating declined in the key summer tourism months of July and August in eastern Canada (Toronto and Montreal). As the first empirical assessment of the implications of climate change for the tourism climate resource, this investigation also raises questions for future inquiry.
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of attractors includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the optimal climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations.
The new German Länder have been practically invisible in discourses on tourism in post-socialist states. This case-study presents an exploratory examination of major tourism trends in the former German Democratic Republic since 1990. The purpose is to provoke further debate on the critical issues surrounding tourism transition, not least the wisdom and consequences of the general desire to eliminate disparities in production and consumption between east and west. Special emphasis is placed on the deployment of urban heritage tourism as a mechanism to realise these ambitions. Far from a less harsh experience of change, eastern destinations have had to compete with established western resorts and regions for domestic and inbound visitors. Several indices point towards convergence but concurrently raise concerns about uneven development and the limits to, and sustainability of, growth. A reading of product development and the settings of consumption suggests that important unexpected de facto constraints to tourism development may result from continued, unchallenged, widespread adherence to western paradigms in the east.
This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists’ expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.
More technology implies higher welfare. Therefore, it is individually rational to cooperate on technological development. It is not individually rational cooperate on greenhouse gas emission reduction. If technology cooperation only comes with cooperation on emission reduction, incentives to free ride on the emission reduction agreement are reduced. However, countries would prefer to cooperate on technology but not on emission reduction. If technology progresses through a learning-by-doing mechanism, more emission reduction technology does not necessarily imply higher emission reduction. However, for reasonable parameter choices, it does. This implies that technological cooperation is an effective instrument in emission reduction policy, also if that policy is of a non-cooperative nature. It also implies that it is in the best interest of technology leaders to subsidise the export of greenhouse gas reducing technology. Key words Climate change, greenhouse gas emission reduction, endogenous technological change, learningby-doing, optimal emission control, coalition formation a
Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors. Tourism is obviously related to climate, as tourists prefer spending time outdoors and travel to enjoy the sun or landscape. It is therefore surprising that the tourism literature pays little attention to climate and climatic change and it is equally surprising that the climate change impact literature pays little attention to tourism. The number of studies on tourism and climate change is, however, starting to grow. This paper reviews this literature, discussing shortcomings and recent developments in global modeling of tourism flows are presented. The range of methods used and issues studied in the literature is large, and findings are correspondingly diverse. However, all studies agree that climate change matters to tourism and recreation. Future avenues of inquiry are also discussed.
In this paper we present a microsimulation model to calculate the effects of hypothetical ex-ante price changes in the Spanish energy domain. The model rests on our prior estimation of a demand system which is especially designed for simultaneous analysis of different energy goods and uses household data from 1973 to 1995. Our objective is to obtain in-depth information on the behavioural responses by different types of households, which will allow us to determine the welfare effects of such price changes, their distribution across society and the environmental consequences within the residential sector. Although the model used is able to reproduce any type of price change, we illustrate the paper with an actual simulation of the effects of energy taxes that resemble a 50 Euro tax on CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions. The results show a significant response by households, sizeable emission reductions, tax revenues, welfare changes and distributional effects. The simulated policy can thus be considered a feasible option to tackle some of the current and severe inefficiencies in Spanish energy and environmental domains.
For the past two decades, China has experienced strong, continuous economic growth. At the same time, the number of motor vehicles in China has rapidly increased. As a direct result of such a phenomenon, China has been registering significant increases in air pollution. In spite of recent advances in air pollution control, it remains a serious problem for China’s major cities, and constitutes an important issue in the agenda of its policy makers. The object of this paper is to explore the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to evaluate and rank alternative policy scenarios regarding the control of air pollution emitted by motor vehicles. The empirical analysis carried out relates specifically to the Chinese context, over a twenty year period, from 2001 to 2020, and focuses on emission changes of the following three principal pollutants: CO, HC and NOx.
It is believed that privatizations substantially contributed to boost stock markets through the 1980s and 1990s. However, trough which channels did that materialize? We test whether privatizations –improving households’ acquaintance with the risk and return characteristics of stocks through the massive accompanying advertising campaigns– boosted demand for stocks by enlarging the set of households willing to invest in shares. We use a unique micro-data set collected for a large sample of Italian households on Public Offerings (PO) during 1995-99, the climax of privatizations in Italy. We show that advertising increased the notoriety of the incoming PO at households, and through this furthered households’ propensity to subscribe that PO. Furthermore, the propensity to subscribe the incoming PO also increased as households became better informed about past privatizations. Thus, privatizations expanded households’ share participation in Italy.
This chapter offers a framework for the analysis of climate change impacts on tourism in coastal resorts: How can a change in climate affect tourism? Where are the ‘interfaces’ between climate change and tourism and how do they work? Which kind of information do we need on climate change and its effects (e.g. from meteorology, biology, geography) in order to assess the impact on tourism? How do social processes (social perception, impact of media, political decisions) in a society facing a climate change process modify the pure effect of climate change?
A basic problem in the statistical estimation of economic relations is the discrepancy between the statistician’s claim when he formulates his maintained hypothesis and the procedure which he actually follows. He claims that he includes all his relevant a priori information in the maintained hypothesis, and it is on the maintenance of this hypothesis that his probability statements are based. Yet it is not uncommon to find statisticians discarding their maintained hypotheses after the estimation has been undertaken.
The present stalemate in climate negotiations between the USA and the other Annex I countries has led policy analysts and economists to explore the possible emergence of alternative climate regimes that may be applied after 2012. This article explores the idea of replacing international
cooperation on greenhouse gas emission control with international cooperation on climate-related technological innovation and diffusion. This idea – recently proposed among others by Barrett (2001) and Benedick (2001) – is based on the insight that incentives to free-ride are much
smaller in the case of technological cooperation than in the case of cooperation on emission control. This article provides a first applied game theory analysis of a technology-based climate protocol by assessing: (i) the self-enforcingness (namely, the absence of incentives to free-ride)
of the coalition that would form when countries negotiate on climate-related technological cooperation; (ii) the environmental effectiveness of a technology-based climate protocol. The analysis is carried out by using a model in which endogenous and induced technical change are explicitly
modelled. The results of our analysis partly support Barrett's and Benedick's conjectures. On the one hand, a self-enforcing agreement is more likely to emerge when countries cooperate on environmental technological innovation and diffusion than when they cooperate on emission abatement.
However, technological cooperation – without any commitment to emission control – may not lead to a sufficient abatement of greenhouse gas concentrations.
Tourism demand has been extensively studied by tourism economists under the economic framework. On the other hand travel motivation has also been widely analyzed by the researchers using socio-psychological framework. The focus of this study is to discuss both of these frameworks and to propose a combined framework which illustrates that the root of tourism market demand could be found in both economic and socio-psychological theories and that market demand could be derived from factors underpinning both theories—theories of destination choice and theory of market demand. Climate as an important socio-psychological variable is incorporated into tourism demand analysis through error correction model. The results shed new lights to the potential of the proposed framework in revealing tourism demand.
This paper presents a general equilibrium endogenous growth model in which public spending is divided between public productive services and public consumption. A distinguishing feature of the model is the assumption that both components of public spending can be over used and, thus, congested by the private agents. We study the second-best dynamics of the model and prove that it is determinate. Moreover, we show that the optimal second-best policy could be not unique. Finally, the relationship between congestion and the optimal second-best policy, on the one hand, and congestion and the long run growth rate, on the other, is established.
Optimal portfolio rules are derived under uncertainty aversion by formulating the portfolio choice problem as a robust control problem. The robust portfolio rule indicates that the total holdings of risky assets as a proportion of the investor's wealth could increase as compared to the holdings under the Merton rule, which is the standard risk aversion case. With two risky assets an increase in the holdings of the one risky asset is accompanied by a reduction in the holdings of the other asset. Furthermore, in the optimal robust portfolio the investor may increase the holdings of the asset for which there is or less ambiguity, and reduce the holding of the asset for which there is more ambiguity, a result that might provide an explanation of the home bias puzzle.
The Balearic Islands are one of the world's leading markets for sun and sand tourism. As an example of mass tourism with high environmental costs, they have been condemned by some authors as entering a final phase of decline. In this paper, the Balearic tourist market is analysed, posing three hypotheses: (1) During recent years certain characteristics of sun and sand tourism have changed, but the tourists’ behaviour and needs are far removed from “new tourism” stereotypes. (2) As a sun and sand holiday destination, the Balearic Islands have undergone a considerable restructuring process directed at offering improved quality, and it is, in fact, a competitive destination. (3) The model's persistence, in the long term, must be based on the adaptation of the sun and sand tourism model within the framework of sustainable development.
Inbound travel to Australia has undergone unprecedented growth in the last several years. This growth, which contrasts with relatively static levels of domestic tourism, has also affected the profile of visitors to Australia. These changes and the factors which have influenced them, are explored with a view to providing some background for those concerned with planning the provision of goods and services to tourists.
A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those
implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO2
concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission – the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic
projections – are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy–climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets.
In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters.
Technical change is generally considered the key to the solution of environmental problems, in particular global phenomena like climate change. Scientists differ in their views on the thaumaturgic virtues of technical change. There are those who are confident that pollution-free technologies will materialize at some time in the future and will prevent humans from suffering the catastrophic consequences of climate change. Others believe that there are inexpensive technologies already available and argue the case for no-regret adoption policies (e.g. subsidies). Others again believe that the process of technological change responds to economic stimuli. These economic incentives to technological innovation are provided not only by forces that are endogenous to the economic system, but also by suitably designed environmental and innovation policies. In this paper, we consider and translate into analytical counterparts these different views of technical change. We then study alternative formulations of technical change and, with the help of a computerized climate-economy model, carry out a number of optimization runs in order to assess what type of technical change plays a role (assuming it does) in the evaluation of the impact of climate change and of the policies designed to cope with it.
In this paper we extend the model of vertical product differentiation to also consider information disparities about the extent of quality differences. Equilibrium prices turn out to depend not only on the share of informed consumers but also on uninformed consumers beliefs about quality differences. If uninformed consumers overestimate vertical differentiation, informed consumers exert a positive externality on the purchasers of the high quality good as its price decreases when the share of informed consumers decreases. Considering also that the price of the low quality good increases with the share of informed consumers, higher prices can not signal high quality goods. If uninformed consumers have pessimistic beliefs and underestimate the extent of vertical differentiation, informed consumers can exert a positive externality on firms. In fact either market demands are inelastic to prices and the profits of the high quality firm increase with the share of informed consumers or market demands are elastic to prices and the profits of both firms increase with the share of informed consumers. In the latter case prices are also equal to those that would prevail with perfect information. In the case of optimistic consumers we can then find some theoretical foundation concerning the fact that information undermines brand, while with pessimistic consumers we can explain demand collapses and insensitivity to price changes due to consumer suspicions about product quality.
The privatisation policy pursued in the UK by Mrs Thatcher's government (1979-1990) and subsequently by Mr Major's government (1990-1997) was the largest experiment in public divestitures among capitalist economies. It had a deep impact on economic policy-making world wide, and was vastly imitated, in Western Europe, in the former planned economies, in a number of less developed countries. In this paper we test the impact of privatisation on macroeconomic performance in the United Kingdom using quarterly data from 1979 to 1999. In the econometric model, we use privatisation proceeds as an explanatory variable and we control for several other variables. Testing for cointegration the results show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between GDP growth and the variables used in the model. However, in our empirical analysis we find a weak evidence that privatisation generated an aggregate shock on output in the UK. This result is consistent with empirical literature on microeconomic evidence that shows that in the UK ownership change per se had little impact on long term productivity trends.
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the behaviour of young, single, British international and domestic tourists during their holidays. The research was located in Torquay, on the Southwest coast of England, and Cala Millor, on the Northeast of Mallorca. These locations represent two of the most popular destinations for young British tourists on domestic and international vacations, respectively. The findings of this research suggest that young, single, British tourists on domestic vacations behave in a different manner compared to those holidaying at the international level. Indeed, compared to domestic tourists, young people on international vacations tended to behave in a more passive and hedonistic manner.
This article integrates the empirical findings of 80 studies of international tourism demand. This was achieved using meta-analytical techniques — a field of statistics that has evolved in recent years and puts much more scientific rigor into integrative studies. Individual empirical studies produce useful results, but generalizations depend on the synthesis of these results across studies. The article shows that artifactual effects, and substantive and methodological inter-study differences account for much of the variation in findings. It discusses those results concerning the effect of country-of-origin and country-of-destination on the estimated determinants of international tourism demand.RésuméUne métanalyse de la demande du tourisme. Cet article intègre les résultats empiriques de 80 études de la demande du tourisme international. L'intégration a été réalisé en utilisant des techniques métanalytiques tirées d'une branche de la statistique qui a évolué ces dernières années et qui met beaucoup plus de rigueur dans les études d'intégration. Les études empiriques individuelles produisent des résultats utiles, mais les généralisations dépendent de la synthèse des résultats de ces études. L'article montre que les effets artificiels et les différences substantives et méthodologiques entre études expliquent une bonne partie de la variation dans les résultats. On discute les résultats concernant l'effet du pays d'origine et du pays de destination sur les déterminants estimés de la demande du tourisme international.
This paper assesses the structure of VFR (visiting friends and relatives) tourism in the UK between 1989 and 1993 in relation to four main issues: VFR expenditure patterns, VFR destination choices, the timing and duration of VFR trips, and VFR demographic travel propensity by social class, age and life cycle. The results suggest the need for important modifications or extensions to previous assumptions about the VFR category in terms of its value, destination features, its temporal distribution and the profile of its main participants. A number of hypotheses are offered as the basis for replication studies and further research. The analysis is based on a disaggregation of VFR tourism from five annual United Kingdom Tourism Surveys (UKTS) carried out continuously between 1989 and 1993, which provide the first five-year run of data on domestic tourism in the UK based on an unchanging and consistent methodology. The data represents the largest, standardised longitudinal data set on VFR tourism yet presented in the literature. The UKTS results are compared with VFR results derived from published studies of VFR travel elsewhere.
Climate changes currently taking place have impacted upon the pattern of visitor activity and threatened the financial viability of tourism-related enterprises. Previous attempts to evaluate the effects of climate change have been based upon a relatively coarse spatial resolution of climatic variation, which cannot readily be related to the more localised aspects of tourist activity. By combining simple spatial climate models with digital topographic data in a Geographical Information System, more detailed maps of spatial patterns of potential changes in the Scottish climate have been produced which have been related to particular aspects of tourism, such as winter skiing. In Scotland, the indications are that winters are becoming milder and summers drier. Predictions of changes in winter snow cover and summer dryness have been based upon historical analogues. Although lowland areas may experience less frequent snow cover, changes may be relatively less signficant on the highest ground above 1000 m. Upland areas may also see the greatest reduction in dull and damp ‘dreich’ summer days. It is possible that Scottish tourism may reap some localised benefits from ongoing climate changes.
During the last two decades tourism in Turkey has become a mass industry concentrated in the western and southern coastal areas. As these areas were part of the more developed regions of the country, tourism in its current structure contributes to the strengthening of interregional disparities in Turkey. In addition, in the centres of mass tourism socio-economical unsustainable demand and supply structures evolved. Simultanously, the domestic tourism market has increased, and it can offer a socio-economic alternative to the further expansion of international mass tourism. Thus, the so far little developed South-East and East Anatolia, with an abundance of historical sights and natural highlights, can offer new destinations for domestic travellers while contributing to a sustainable development of these regions. As a precondition a national domestic tourism policy, stable prices and a strong promotion of the new destinations are essential.
This paper introduces a dynamic applied general equilibrium model with bottom-up abatement information for important environmental themes, which can be applied to a wide variety of countries. Empirical abatement cost curves determine the characteristics of abatement and substitution possibilities between pollution and abatement.The analysis of efficient reduction strategies for the Netherlands shows that the costs of current environmental policy targets can be limited via a mixture of technical abatement measures, economic restructuring and a temporary economic slowdown. Smog formation is the most costly environmental theme, due to the absence of sufficient technical abatement options.
We examine the formation of networks among a set of players whose payoffs depend on the structure of the network, when players may bargain by promising or demanding transfer payments when forming links. We vary three aspects of the game: (i) whether players can only make transfers to (and receive transfers from) players to whom they are directly linked, or whether they can also subsidize links that they are not directly involved in, (ii) whether or not transfers relating to a given link can be made contingent on the full resulting network or only on the link itself, and (iii) whether or not players can pay other players to refrain from forming links. We characterize the networks that are supported under these variations and show how each of the above aspects either accounts for a specific type of externality, or deals with the combinatorial nature of network payoffs.
The seller of N distinct objects is uncertain about the buyer's valuation for those objects. The seller's problem, to maximize expected revenue, consists of maximizing a linear functional over a convex set of mechanisms. A solution to the seller's problem can always be found in an extreme point of the feasible set. We identify the relevant extreme points and faces of the feasible set. We provide a simple algebraic procedure to determine whether a mechanism is an extreme point. We characterize the mechanisms that maximize revenue for some well-behaved distribution of buyer's valuations.
In view of the uncertainty over the ability of merging firms to achieve efficiency gains, we model the post-merger situation as a Cournot oligopoly wherein the outsiders face uncertainty about the merged entity's final cost. At the Bayesian equilibrium, a bilateral merger is profitable provided the non-merged firms sufficiently believe that the merger will generate large enough efficiency gains, even if ex post none actually materialize. The effects of the merger on market performance are shown to follow similar threshold rules. The findings are broadly consistent with stylized facts. An extensive welfare analysis is conducted, bringing out the key role of efficiency gains and the different implications of consumer and social welfare standards.
The rapid development of China's domestic tourism in the 1990s is receiving more and more attention in China. The improvement of the national economy, the personality of Chinese culture, and the abundant tourism resources have all played roles in its growth. This article summarizes China's domestic tourism before 1990 and discusses the inherent reasons for its boom throughout the 1990s. It also forecasts development trends in the next decade, and identifies some important factors that constrain its growth.
This paper develops an economic argument relating auctions to high market prices. At the core of the argument is the claim that market competition and bidding in an auction should be analyzed as part of one game, where the pricing strategies in the market subgame depend on the bidding strategies during the auction. I show that when there are two licenses for sale the only equilibrium in the overall game that is consistent with the logic of forward induction is the one where firms bid an amount (almost) equal to the profits of the cooperative market outcome and follow a cooperative pricing strategy in the market game resulting in high prices. With three or more licenses the auction format co-determines whether or not the forward induction argument works.
This paper examines the trends of tourism in North East England. In particular, we focus on the area of Northumbria to show the potential of tourism for economic development in the region. Within this analysis, we concentrate on the demand for tourism in the region, and in particular we are concerned with tourism by UK residents in Northumbria (‘domestic’ tourism). The long run relationship between domestic tourism demand, and a number of economic factors effecting this demand, is considered using the Johansen and Juselius (1990, 1992) Multivariate Cointegration analysis. An error-correction model is then proposed for short-run forecasting of domestic demand for tourism in Northumbria.
Current models of tourism demand based in economic utility theory assume a two-stage decision process, with the choice of tour independent of the prior decision to travel or not. In this article, a more comprehensive model is developed that incorporates the decision to travel or not and the time and budget allocations, as well as the choice of tour in one utility function with nontourism goods. The new model allows changes in incomes and in the prices of nontourism goods and services to affect tourism behavior in ways that the standard and simpler model does not, with implications for improved empirical model formulation.RésuméUne théorie microéconomique de la demande de tourisme international. Les modèles de la demande de tourisme qui se basent sur la théorie microéconomique supposent un processus de décision en deux temps, le choix de voyage étant indépendent de la décision antérieure de voyager ou de ne pas voyager. Dans cet article on formule un modèle plus complet, englobant dans une seule fonction d'utilité aussi bien la décision de voyage ou de ne pas voyager et les affectations temporelle et budgétaire que le choix de voyage. Le nouveau modèle admet que les changements de revenu et de prix de biens et services non-touristiques affectent le comportement voyageur comme ne pourrait le représenter le modèle normal et plus simpliste. Il est donc possible de formuler des modèles empiriques profitant de l'éclaircissement ainsi obtenu.
Using results from two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Canada and the U.S., we explore the effect of a latency period on willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced mortality risk using both structural and reduced form approaches. We find that delaying the time at which the risk reduction occurs by 10 to 30 years reduces WTP by more than half for respondents in both samples aged 40 to 60 years. Additionally, we estimate implicit discount rates equal to 8% for Canada and 4.5% for the U.S. – both well within the range established previously in the literature.
We model EU-type carbon emissions control in a group of countries to explore the distributional incidence of mixed policies that consist of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) and of emissions taxes overlapping with the ETS. Such policies impact on national welfares through both the overlapping taxes and the distribution of national emissions caps. Our main proposition is an equivalence result stating that for every mixed policy, there exists an ETS policy without overlapping taxes yielding the same levels of national welfare as the mixed policy. We also suggest two measures of the net distributional incidence of mixed policies.
We present a new, global data base on tourist destinations. The data base differs from other data bases in that it includes both domestic and international tourists; and it contains data, for the most important destinations, data at national level as well as at lower administrative levels. Missing observations are interpolated using statistical models. The data are freely accessible on the internet.
[eng] Transportation costs and monopoly location in presence of regional disparities. . This article aims at analysing the impact of the level of transportation costs on the location choice of a monopolist. We consider two asymmetric regions. The heterogeneity of space lies in both regional incomes and population sizes: the first region is endowed with wide income spreads allocated among few consumers whereas the second one is highly populated however not as wealthy. Among the results, we show that a low transportation costs induces the firm to exploit size effects through locating in the most populated region. Moreover, a small transport cost decrease may induce a net welfare loss, thus allowing for regional development policies which do not rely on inter-regional transportation infrastructures. cost decrease may induce a net welfare loss, thus allowing for regional development policies which do not rely on inter-regional transportation infrastructures. [fre] Cet article d�veloppe une statique comparative de l'impact de diff�rents sc�narios d'investissement (projet d'infrastructure conduisant � une baisse mod�r�e ou � une forte baisse du co�t de transport inter-r�gional) sur le choix de localisation d'une entreprise en situation de monopole, au sein d'un espace int�gr� compos� de deux r�gions aux populations et revenus h�t�rog�nes. La premi�re r�gion, faiblement peupl�e, pr�sente de fortes disparit�s de revenus, tandis que la seconde, plus homog�ne en termes de revenu, repr�sente un march� potentiel plus �tendu. On montre que l'h�t�rog�n�it� des revenus constitue la force dominante du mod�le lorsque le sc�nario d'investissement privil�gi� par les politiques publiques conduit � des gains substantiels du point de vue du co�t de transport entre les deux r�gions. L'effet de richesse, lorsqu'il est associ� � une forte disparit� des revenus, n'incite pas l'entreprise � exploiter son pouvoir de march� au d�triment de la r�gion l
A model of coalition government formation is presented in which inefficient, non-minimal winning coalitions may form in Nash equilibrium. Predictions for five games are presented and tested experimentally. The experimental data support potential maximization as a refinement of Nash equilibrium. In particular, the data support the prediction that non-minimal winning coalitions occur when the distance between policy positions of the parties is small relative to the value of forming the government. These conditions hold in games 1, 3, 4 and 5, where subjects played their unique potential-maximizing strategies 91, 52, 82 and 84 percent of the time, respectively. In the remaining game (Game 2) experimental data support the prediction of a minimal winning coalition. Players A and B played their unique potential-maximizing strategies 84 and 86 percent of the time, respectively, and the predicted minimal-winning government formed 92 percent of the time (all strategy choices for player C conform with potential maximization in Game 2). In Games 1, 2, 4 and 5 over 98 percent of the observed Nash equilibrium outcomes were those predicted by potential maximization. Other solution concepts including iterated elimination of weakly dominated strategies and strong/coalition-proof Nash equilibrium are also tested.
Mass privatization offers a particularly suitable framework to study the change in ownership concentration as the extent of change is unusual for a stable market economy. Focusing on two different mass privatization schemes in two transition economies, Poland and the Czech Republic, we find that despite important differences in the design of the two programmes and despite different quality of legal and regulatory framework, ownership structure in the two countries has rapidly evolved and the emerging ownership patterns are remarkably similar. This suggests that private benefits of control are large and the quality of investor protection regime is low in both countries. However, looking at the relationship between the change in ownership concentration and firm performance, we find an interesting difference between the two countries: in the Czech Republic the increase in ownership concentration seems to be less likely in poorly performing firms while in Poland the quality of past performance does not affect investors' willingness to increase their holdings. This effect may be interpreted in the light of the theory stressing the importance of the quality of investors' protection. It could be argued that if Czech investors are more risk averse and more concerned with diversification this is largely due to the weakness of the legal protection they face.
The paper studies how the size of a cartel affects the possibility that its members can sustain a collusive agreement. It observes that collusion is easier to sustain the larger the cartel is. Then, it explores the implications of this result on the incentives of firms to participate in a cartel. Firms will be more willing to participate, because otherwise they risk that collusion completely collapses, as remaining cartel members are unable to sustain the collusion
In many markets, changes in the spot price are partially predictable. We show that when this is the case: (1) although unbiased, traditional regression estimates of the minimum variance hedge ratio are inefficient, (2) estimates of the riskiness of both hedged and unhedged positions are biased upward, and (3) estimates of the percentage risk reduction achievable through hedging are biased downward. For natural gas cross hedges, we find that both the inefficiency and bias are substantial. We further find that incorporating the expected change in the spot price, as measured by the futures-spot price spread at the beginning of the hedge, into the regression results in a substantial increase in efficiency and reduction in the bias.
In this paper we study hedonic games where each player views every other player either as a friend or as an enemy. Two simple priority criteria for comparison of coalitions are suggested, and the corresponding preference restrictions based on appreciation of friends and aversion to enemies are considered. It turns out that the first domain restriction guarantees non-emptiness of the strong core and the second domain restriction ensures non-emptiness of the weak core of the corresponding hedonic games. Moreover, an element of the strong core under friends appreciation can be found in polynomial time, while finding an element of the weak core under enemies aversion is NP-hard. We examine also the relationship between our domain restrictions and some sufficient conditions for non-emptiness of the core already known in the literature.
Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socio- economic systems interact. It is likely that climate change will modify their probability distributions and their consequences. The long-term growth models used in climate change assessments, however, cannot capture the effects of short-term shocks; they thus model extreme events in a very crude manner. To assess the importance of this limitation, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to model the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. Its conclusions are the following: (i) Dynamic processes multiply the extreme event direct costs by a factor 20; half of this increase comes from short-term processes; (ii) A possible modication of the extreme event distribution due to climate change can be responsible for significant GDP losses; (iii) The production losses caused by extreme events depend, with strong non-linearity, both on the changes in the extreme distribution and on the ability to fund the rehabilitation after each disaster. These conclusions illustrate that the economic assessment of climate change does not only depend on beliefs on climate change but also on beliefs on the economy. Moreover, they suggest that averaging short-term processes like extreme events over the five- or ten-year time step of a classical long-term growth model can lead to inaccurately low assessments of the climate change damages.
This paper analyses stability of coalitions for greenhouse gas abatement for different sharing rules applied to the gains from co-operation. We use a 12-regions model designed to examine internal and external stability of coalitions (STACO). We compare different sharing rules like, for example, grandfathering (i.e. sharing proportional to emissions) and a number of so-called equitable rules like, for example, sharing proportional to population or according to historical responsibilities. Due to strong free-rider incentives we find only small stable coalitions for all sharing rules examined. As a general pattern we observe that coalitions consist of regions with low marginal abatement costs, which are attractive partners in any coalition, and regions which have the highest claims according to the respective sharing rule. Furthermore, we find that a grandfathering scheme leads to the largest and – in terms of greenhouse gas abatement – most successful coalition, while many of the equitable rules achieve very little.
We study a game theoretic model of a parliamentary democracy under proportional representation where `citizen candidates' form parties, voting occurs and governments are formed. We study the coalition governments that emerge as functions of the parties' seat shares, the size of the rents from holding office and their ideologies. We show that governments may be minimal winning, minority or surplus. Moreover, coalitions may be `disconnected'. We then look at how the coalition formation game affects the incentives for party formation. Our model explains the diverse electoral outcomes seen under proportional representation and integrates models of political entry with models of coalitional bargaining.
We define the canonical form of a cost spanning tree problem. The canonical form has the property that reducing the cost of any arc, the minimal cost of connecting agents to the source is also reduced. We argue that the canonical form is a relevant concept in this kind of problems and study a rule using it. This rule satisfies much more interesting properties than other rules in the literature. Furthermore we provide two characterizations. Finally, we present several approaches to this rule without using the canonical form.