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Predicting Tourism Flows under Climate Change -- An Editorial Comment on Goessling and Hall (2006)
... Even though tourist destinations recover relatively quickly from such disasters, damage to infrastructure and buildings will result in additional costs. Adaptation to climate change will also have economic impacts: Hamilton (2006) showed that protection measures such as longer dikes have a (Morgan et al. 2000) Climate aspect ...
... Climate change may also alter tourism patterns in Europe radically by inducing changes in destination choice and seasonal demand structure (Ciscar et al. 2011(Ciscar et al. : 2680. The scientific literature contains many references to tourists, their preferences and their behaviour, including changes in tourist flows and seasonality (Braun et al. 1999;Maddison 2001;Lise and Tol 2002;Wietze and Tol 2002;Lohmann 2003;Hamilton et al. 2005;Gössling and Hall 2006;Bigano et al. 2006bBigano et al. , 2008Hamilton and Tol 2007;Moreno and Amelung 2009;Buzinde et al. 2010;Hall 2010;Perch-Nielsen et al. 2010;Denstadli et al. 2011;Rosselló-Nadal et al. 2011;Gössling et al. 2012). One of the major questions these studies raise is whether mass tourism of the type seen today at the Mediterranean Sea coast will shift to destinations in northern Europe, such as the North Sea region. ...
Tourism is one of the most highly climate-sensitive economic sectors. Most of its main sub-sectors, including sun-and-beach tourism and nature-based tourism, play a major role in the North Sea region and are especially weather–und climate-dependent. On top of that, most tourist activities in the North Sea region occur in the coastal zones which are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Climate acts as both a ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factor in tourism. Climate-driven changes in tourism demand are hard to determine because the tourist decision-making process is also influenced by factors other than climate. Nevertheless, summer tourism in the North Sea region is expected to benefit from rising temperatures (air and water), decreasing precipitation and longer seasons. Destinations can reduce the negative impacts of climate change on tourism by adapting to the changes. The tourist industry also contributes to climate change. Not only is the tourist industry affected by climate change, it also contributes to climate change itself. Therefore, mitigating the climate effects of tourism is largely the responsibility of politicians, the tourism industry and tourism supply. Despite some negative impacts, the overall consequences of climate change for tourism in the North Sea region are expected to be positive.
... For example, Hamilton et al. (2005) was the only tourism related paper cited in the Stern (2007) Report (Hall 2008b). Yet as Gössling and Hall (2006b) indicate there are numerous major weaknesses in such models with respect to predicting tourist response to climate change (see Bigano et al. 2006;Gössling & Hall 2006b;Scott 2008; for further discussion of these issues): ...
... • Future levels of personal disposable income (economic budget) and availability of leisure time (time budget) that are allocated to travel uncertain Bigano et al (2006) claim that the relationships between tourism and climate change are best studied through strategic cyclical scaling (Root & Schneider 1995), with smallscale, detailed case studies informing and being informed by large-scale, comprehensive statistical and simulation studies. The use of such an approach is undoubtedly widespread in research on environmental and other change (Gössling & Hall 2006a). ...
... The multidisciplinary nature of the field is both a strength, infusing new ideas and research techniques, and a challenge, with differing disciplinary perspectives on the validity of assumptions and findings. [22][23][24][25] The engagement of the tourism sector (international and national tourism government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, tourism industry) followed a different timeline than academic interests. 26,27 The science and policy momentum generated by the release of the IPCC TAR and the Kyoto Protocol entering into force as an international treaty were instrumental in stimulating high-level involvement of the tourism sector. ...
... 45,77-79 There is some support for this pattern from anomalously warm summers in the UK, 80,81 where domestic tourism increased, while outbound tourism decreased, as well as in mountain areas with nearby major cities. 82,83 Global-scale simulation models of tourism demand under climatic change are necessarily highly simplified and have important limitations. 22,23,25,48,75,84,85 Macroscale models utilize constructs of climate that have no meaning to tourist decision-making (e.g., annual average temperature for a country). Therefore, integrating microscale tourist behavioral research into global-scale analyses of the influence of climate on tourism demand patterns remains an important area of future research. ...
Tourism is a major global economic sector that is undergoing tremendous growth in emerging economies and is often touted as salient for development and poverty alleviation in developing countries. Tourism is recognized as a highly climate‐sensitive sector, one that is also strongly influenced by environmental and socioeconomic change influenced by climate change, and is also a growing contributor to anthropogenic climate change. This article outlines the complex interrelationships between climate change and the multiple components of the international tourism system. Five focal themes that have developed within the literature on the consequences of climate change for tourism are then critically reviewed: climatic change and temporal and geographic shifts in tourism demand, climate‐induced environmental change and destination competitiveness within three major market segments (winter sports tourism, coastal tourism, and nature‐based tourism), and mitigation policy developments and future tourist mobility. The review highlights the differential vulnerability of tourism destinations and that the resultant changes in competitiveness and sustainability will transform some international tourism markets. Feedbacks throughout the tourism system mean that all destinations will need to adapt to the risks and opportunities posed by climate change and climate policy. While notable progress has been made in the last decade, a number of important knowledge gaps in each of the major impact areas, key regional knowledge gaps, and both tourist and tourism operator perceptions of climate change risks and adaptive capacity indicate that the tourism sector is not currently well prepared for the challenges of climate change. WIREs Clim Change 2012. doi: 10.1002/wcc.165
This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Decoupling Emissions from Development
... A growing number of papers analysed the influence of climate and weather conditions on tourism. Some of them consider its direct impact on visitors (Becken & Wilson, 2013;Bigano et al., 2006;Bujosa & Rosselló, 2013;Eugenio-Martin & Campos-Soria, 2010;Falk, 2013;Goh, 2012;Gössling, 2012;Hamilton, 2004;Kim et al., 2017;Liu et al., 2008;Lohmann & Kaim, 1999;Sun & Ma, 2007;Wall & Badke, 1994;Williams et al., 1997;Yang et al., 2019). Other papers present a destinations' approach (Becken, 2013;Jing et al., 2015;Luu, 2019;Maddison, 2001;Moreno, 2009;Richardson & Loomis, 2005;Taylor & Ortiz, 2009). ...
This paper explores the role of weather conditions on tourists’ decision-making. For this purpose, it develops a theoretical framework that integrates how individual decisions are made at the micro level into a dynamic macro-level model with three decision stages: before booking, before departure, and during the trip. The model is empirically tested applying chi-square analysis, logistic regression and multiple correspondence analysis on a sample of inbound tourists visiting China. The results indicate that weather variations affect tourists’ decisions, mainly regarding activities. The specific weather conditions that impact on visitors’ behaviour are different at each decision-making stage. Additionally, the influence of weather becomes smaller as the stages advance. The empirical results also indicate that the effect of weather is affected by tourists’ characteristics. Finally, the results of the paper are used to provide recommendations for including weather consideration into the design and management of tourism products.
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... Tourism service providers can identify peak and off-peak periods, which will enable effective planning. Indices can also be useful in accurately comparing and relating tourism products between tourism destinations to adjust marketing strategies (Bigano et al., 2006;De Freitas et al., 2008;Gomez Martin, 2006;Lise & Tol, 2002;Maddison, 2001;Morgan et al., 2000). ...
Climate and weather are key resources for tourism. For nature-based tourism operations, weather determines the timing and variety of activities including game drives and walks, while longer-term climate affects the seasonality of both tourism arrivals and the natural environment available for viewing. This influence is heightened in developing countries, where little adaptation has been implemented to ameliorate poor climate and extreme weather events. The Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) is widely used in the global North to quantify the climate suitability of outdoor tourist destinations. Initial studies for South Africa and Lesotho reveal the applicability of the index in the African context, despite challenges in data availability and quality. This study presents the first TCI calculations for Zimbabwe, a country that relies on outdoor nature-based tourism in attracting tourists and foreign income. The mean annual TCI scores classifies Zimbabwe as very good to excellent climatically for tourism, spanning 75.5-83 (with a maximum score of 100) for the period 1989-2014. Monthly TCI scores categorise four locations in the Lowveld region as winter-peak, and the remainder of the country summer-peak and bimodal shoulder-peak in their seasonal suitability distributions. This is important in revealing year-round climatic suitability for tourism in Zimbabwe, and highlights the importance of understanding seasonal variability per destination to maximise tourist satisfaction.
... The temporal and geographical distribution of tourists throughout the year is defined markedly in seasonal patterns that show how the tourism sector is very sensitive to climatic events, as these phenomena directly affect tourists' decision-making on destinations to visit [3,[38][39][40]. The influence of climatic factors varies significantly depending on the types of activities tourists engage in at the destination; for example, the practice of outdoor activities is generally more sensitive to climatic variations than that of indoor activities [19]. ...
In sun-and-beach destinations, weather has a decisive influence on the variability of the daily flow of tourists. Uncertainty in demand flows directly affects businesses and employment. This work aims to improve understanding of the behaviour of tourists in response to changes in weather conditions. The analysis is carried out in the Rías Baixas, a sun-and-beach destination in north-west Spain. The paper analyses the relationship of weather conditions with daily flows during the high season at the main tourist beaches in the area, also considering two beach typologies. The density of beach use is measured three times a day through the analysis of webcam images in combination with real-time weather, and an online survey is conducted among tourists who have visited these beaches. The results show that the hours of sunshine are the most influential weather factor. Weather forecast greatly or totally influenced the decision to go to the beach for almost 70% of respondents and about 80% of the respondents checked on the weather before visiting a beach.
... These simulations showed a gradual shift of tourist arrivals towards higher latitudes and altitudes, but projected demand changes through climate change were smaller than demand changes due to population and economic growth (Hamilton et al. 2005). But the generalization of international tourism in terms of motivation, forms of tourism and so on, and the used ideal temperature (14°C annual mean temperature) raise questions about the suitability of such rather simple models (for a discussion see Bigano et al. 2006;Hall 2006a, 2006b). ...
... Other studies build statistical models of behaviour by focusing on the tourism demand of certain types or groups of tourists as a function of weather and climate [19], which can be thought of as sensitivity analyses [18]. Changes in tourism demand have also been addressed in simulation models, where the projected changes in tourism flows are evaluated on the basis of how climate change affects the attractiveness of a place relative to its competitors [20]. ...
The demand for a new concept of heritage, in which monuments and landscapes are considered active factors in creating a sense of history, is esteemed not only from a scientific and academic perspective, but as well as part of a more sensitive and efficient strategy to link cultural heritage and tourism, by bringing an integrative perspective to the forefront. Implementing such strategies is strictly correlated with the ability to support decision-makers and to increase people’s awareness towards a more comprehensive approach to heritage preservation. In the present work, a robust socioeconomic impact model is presented. Moreover, this work attempts to create an initial link between the economic impacts and natural hazards induced by the changes in the climatic conditions that cultural heritage sites face. The model’s novel socioeconomic impact analysis is the direct and indirect revenues related to the tourism use of a site, on which local economies are strongly correlated. The analysis indicated that cultural heritage sites provide a range of both market and non-market benefits to society. These benefits provide opportunities for policy interventions for the conservation of the cultural heritage sites and their promotion, but also to their protection against the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.
... However, there is little consistency in which climate variables should be included in regional, national, or global modeling efforts. Some studies have focused on only temperature as the sole predictor of visitation, as temperature tends to be correlated with other climate variables and often is the strongest predictor (Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2006;Rossell o-Nadal, 2014). However, other studies have shown that additional climate and weather variables are often significant predictors as well (Falk, 2014;Rossell o-Nadal, Riera-Font, & C ardenas, 2011;, and sometimes even more influential than temperature (Yu, Schwartz, & Walsh, 2009). ...
The relationship between climate and visitation to managed natural areas has been analyzed at a variety of different spatial scales. We expand upon our existing knowledge on this topic by: (1) determining how a wide range of climate variables affect visitation across a regional tourism system; and (2) identifying which variables affect visitation system-wide and which variables only affect visitation at specific parks. Our analysis focuses on five national parks located in southern Utah (USA) commonly referred to as ‘the Mighty 5’. We found monthly average daily maximum temperatures were the best predictor of system-wide visitation, suggesting average daily maximum temperatures play a more direct role in tourists’ travel decisions relative to other climate variables, including other derivations of temperature. We also found declines in monthly park visitation for three parks (Arches, Canyonlands, and Capitol Reef) once average daily maximum temperatures exceed 25 C. For Bryce Canyon and Zion however, monthly visitation continued to increase well above this threshold. The geophysical characteristics of these parks appear to mediate the relationship between average daily maximum temperature and visitation. The commonly found ‘inverted U-shape’ relationship between temperature and visitation should not be seen as a universal maxim. We also found precipitation to be a poor predictor of system-wide visitation, but a significant factor shaping the travel decisions of visitors to Bryce Canyon, the only park to offer snow-based outdoor recreation opportunities. Future research should not disregard the possibility of precipitation being a significant factor shaping visitors’ travel decisions. By conducting our analyses at two distinct scales, we have found there is a difference between the individual climate variables that are regionally-significant drivers of visitation and those that are locally-significant drivers of visitation. Scale matters in analyses of the relationship between climate and visitation.
... The number of international tourists travelling to a country is the sum of international tourists from the other 206 countries. See Bigano et al., (2006a) for further details. Total expenditure is calculated by multiplying the number of tourists times an estimated value of the average individual expenditure. ...
The present study integrates Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling with biodiversity services, proposing a possible methodology for assessing climate-change impacts on ecosystems. The assessment focuses on climate change impacts on carbon sequestration services provided by European forest, cropland and grassland ecosystems and on provisioning services, but provided by forest and cropland ecosystems only. To do this via a CGE model it is necessary to identify first the role that these ecosystem services play in marketable transactions; then how climate change can impact these services; and finally how the economic system reacts to those changes by adjusting demand and supply across sectors, domestically and internationally.
... (WTO, 1995, p. 10) Developing a deeper understanding of the relation between tourism and climate change has been the subject of a growing body of literature in recent years. Some studies (Agnew & Viner, 2001;Scott, Wall, & McBoyle, 2004) have concentrated on the impact of climate change on particular tourist destinations, while others have tried to build statistical models of behaviour focusing on how weather and climate shape the demands of particular types of tourists (Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2006;Lise & Tol, 2002;Maddison, 2001). A third group of literature has focused on simulation models in order to investigate the relation between projected changes in tourism flows and the way in which climate change affects the attractiveness of a place relative to its competitors (Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2005) or the impact of climate change on tourism flows and seasonality (Amelung, Nicholls, & Viner, 2007). ...
Climate change can potentially impact on a wide range of economic sectors and activities. This could be changes in profitability in agriculture or forestry, changes in tourism supply and demand patterns, loss of production due to flooding or the costs of rebuilding infrastructure after extreme weather events. Economic effects can, to a large extent, be thought of as second-order effects of other dimensions of sensitivity. A region that is physically sensitive to climate change will also be economically sensitive to it. For example, if a region's transport infrastructure is sensitive to flooding, this will have effects on its economy as well. In other words, a region's physical and social sensitivity to extreme weather events is usually highly correlated with its economic sensitivity to climate change. ESPON Climate's analysis is focused on those economic sectors that are directly affected by climate change, namely the agriculture, forestry, tourism and energy sectors. For each of these sectors the economic impacts were determined by linking particular indicators of climate change to the sector's importance in a regional economy. After a literature review the relevant indicators are defined, the results of a pan-European assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the different sectors and regions are presented and discussed.
... Climate and weather have served as push-pull factors in visitor destination selection and activity engagement (Agnew & Palutikof, 2006;Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2006;Huebner, 2012). Several studies have demonstrated that weather is an important consideration in selecting a tourism destination (Denstadli, Jacobsen, & Lohmann, 2011;Gössling, Bredberg, Randow, Sandström, & Svensson, 2006;Maddison, 2001). ...
This study explores the range of perceptions about the impacts of climate change on tourism in one protected area, Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine, US. Summer visitation to this park depends strongly on favorable weather conditions. An intercept survey was used to collect data on visitor perceptions about the role of weather and possible climate change on tourism in general, and their destination selection specifically. A total of 506 visitors participated in the study. The majority of participants expressed that climate change will affect tourism. Weather conditions are important and influence visitors' destination selection. Statistically significant differences between age groups and gender about the effects of climate change on tourism were identified. By understanding the perceptions of the visitors, suitable adaptive strategies and early preparedness actions may be developed to cope with the impacts of climate change to the nature-based tourism industry in national parks. Management implications Because nature-based tourism is highly-weather dependent, understanding visitor perceptions of destinations and their essential features will be crucial for sustainable tourism destination development. This qualitative study shows that the majority of visitors are concerned about climate change in a national park they visit, and would support agency efforts to mitigate possible climate change effects. Findings suggest public education and outreach to be relevant strategies for parks to enhance visitors' understanding of climate effects in the region and their role in reducing carbon-footprint. Management efforts, such as resource stewardship and mitigation strategies, should contemplate differences in perceptions of the effects of climate change and travel behavior according to visitor characteristics (e.g., age, gender) and market segments.
... SeeGössling and Hall (2006) and the reply byBigano et al. (2006a) for a more detailed discussion. Furthermore,Scott et al. (2012) present a more detailed discussion regarding the suitability of aggregated models for the evaluation of climate change impacts on tourism demand. ...
This paper investigates how the role of climate in tourist destination choice has changed over the last 15 years. To this end, a demand model for international tourism is estimated, including the main classic determinants but allowing a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Moreover, a complete database considering international tourism movement between 178 countries for the period 1995 to 2010 is used. Results show how turning point temperatures in origin and destination countries have changed over the period of analysis, evidencing a loss of competitiveness for traditional warm destinations. Additionally, using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, an updated vision of their expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, evaluating how climate change would imply a greater loss of attractiveness for traditional warm destinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries.
... Bigano, Hamilton and found that it is expected that international tourist arrivals fall due to global warming in favor of domestic tourism related to tourists from Germany and the United Kingdom. The redistribution of tourism flows is analyzed in Hamilton et al. (2005a, b), Bigano et al. (2006a) Hamilton and Tol (2007) and Rosselló and Santana-Gallego (2014) using simulation models of the flow of tourists between more than two hundred countries and generating climate change scenarios of tourist departures and arrivals. Results show how, in the medium to long term, tourism will grow in absolute terms but this increase will be smaller than population and income changes and not homogeneously distributed, being higher for colder countries and lower for warmer ones. ...
This study presents insights into the barriers and drivers to sustainable tourism development in Arta, Greece based on residents’ perspective. The empirical analysis is based on the estimation of binary logistic regression model. Results, based on statistical analysis, confirm that there are many administrative as well as economic barriers that prevent the development of sustainable tourism in the specific area. The empirical results support that residents’ perceptive for sustainable development varies over residents with particular demographic characteristics. In particular, the residents recognize that their area is a place where sustainable development can flourish if emphasis is given in the education and information campaigns of the citizens. Finally, this study shows that the most important parameter for the promotion of sustainable tourism development in the area is not only the local authorities initiatives but as well as the citizens participation.
... (WTO, 1995, p. 10) Developing a deeper understanding of the relation between tourism and climate change has been the subject of a growing body of literature in recent years. Some studies (Agnew & Viner, 2001;Scott, Wall, & McBoyle, 2004) have concentrated on the impact of climate change on particular tourist destinations, while others have tried to build statistical models of behaviour focusing on how weather and climate shape the demands of particular types of tourists (Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2006;Lise & Tol, 2002;Maddison, 2001). A third group of literature has focused on simulation models in order to investigate the relation between projected changes in tourism flows and the way in which climate change affects the attractiveness of a place relative to its competitors (Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2005) or the impact of climate change on tourism flows and seasonality (Amelung, Nicholls, & Viner, 2007). ...
This paper aims to provide detailed analysis of the impact of climate change on winter sport tourism in European regions. The analysis considers “impact” as the combined effect of exposure to climate change stimuli and economic sensitivity of the winter tourism sector. Using this framework, a new methodology is developed that adds a spatial dimension to the framework and enables the identification of the regions whose winter sport tourism is likely to be significantly affected by climate change.
... Demeritt 2001aDemeritt , 2001bDemeritt , 2006Demeritt & Rothman, 1999; Esbjörn-Ha ge s, ; Hul e, ; O B ie , ; " h eide , ; Tu pe , Jo es & Lorenzoni, 2011), as well as in the particular community of scholars who work on tourism and climate change (e.g. Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison & Tol, 2006;Gössling & Hall 2006a, 2006bScott, 2011;Weaver, 2011). Indeed, in his critique of s ie tifi k o ledge of li ate ha ge odelli g a d its alidatio , De e itt s a iti is s sought to efute eithe the e iste e of glo al a ming nor of socially o ti ge t k o ledge of it a, p. , ut i stead to i p o e the ualit of li ate change knowledge and its communication by rigorous examination of its assumptions, construction, and politics. ...
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The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC's fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate variability, including the relationship between tourism and climate change. This paper responds to those claims by stressing that the extent of scientific consensus suggests that human-induced warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Second, it responds in the context of tourism research and ACC, highlighting tourism's significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as climate change's potential impacts on tourism at different scales. The paper exposes the tactics used in ACC denial papers to question climate change science by referring to non-peer-reviewed literature, outlier studies, and misinterpretation of research, as well as potential links to think tanks and interest groups. The paper concludes that climate change science does need to improve its communication strategies but that the world-view of some individuals and interests likely precludes acceptance. The connection between ACC and sustainability illustrates the need for debate on adaptation and mitigation strategies, but that debate needs to be grounded in scientific principles not unsupported skepticism.
... Due to insufficient tourism statistical database [Gössling and Hall, 2006a;2006b;Bigano et al., 2006] and inadequate consideration of the climate parameters, some models for forecasting the tourist flows have evident defects. Most current simulation models usually contain only two major weather parameters such as temperature and precipitation. ...
The impacts of global climate change on ski tourism, which depends heavily on climate conditions, have increasingly gained concern overseas. This paper systematically summarized the relevant research ideas, the technical methods used, and the obtained achievements through an extensive synthesis of the previous studies. Moreover, the major shortcom-ings and the limitations in the recent studies are pointed in order to present a useful reference for our Chinese investiga-tors. It indicates that the future climate warming would cause the loss of skiable areas, the shortening of skiing seasons and the sharp drop of ski visitors in many low altitude and low latitude ski resorts. The paper finally stressed that future research should pay particular attention to strengthening interdisciplinary cooperation and consider more factors about the impacts of climate-induced environmental changes on tourist flows. In the future ski resort planning and manage-ment, the possible impacts of global climate change should be taken into account. Citation: Yang, J., and C. Wan, 2010: Progress in research on the impacts of global climate change on winter ski tourism. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00055.
... Bigano et al. (2006) defend this choice, by noting that: (a) temperature is the only climate variable for which there are reliable data and future projections with a large spatial coverage, (b) many climate parameters are strongly correlated to temperature. ...
This paper presents and discusses some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries. Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a Tourism Climate Index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitations, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. We estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model. We found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. We found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall.
... However, the tourism industry today needs to anticipate the consequences of climate change on future demand. Despite controversies regarding the weaknesses of statistical models in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change (Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison & Tol, 2006;Gössling & Hall, 2006), strategic planning is now needed by the tourism industry in terms of new infrastructures and the detection of mid and long-run business opportunities. The results of literature on tourism and climate change should be contextualized, implying that all the determinants of tourism demand e except for climate, whose influence is being analysed e should be held constant. ...
The aim of this study is to assess the most relevant quantitative approaches to evaluating the effects of climate change on tourism. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have conducted evaluations of this kind, based on different methodologies and perspectives. This review shows that the effects of climate change can first be assessed through changes in physical conditions essential to tourism; secondly, by using climate indexes to measure the attractiveness of tourist destinations; and, thirdly, by modelling tourism demand with the inclusion of climate determinants. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are in the early stages of development, different approaches result in a similar map of those areas mainly affected by the problem.
... Within the tourism-related literature, a number of studies have dealt with the demand-side perception of climate change and climate- induced changes by tourists (e.g. Becken, 2007;Moreno, 2010;Tervo-Kankare, Hall, & Saarinen, 2013) and link these to the possible future evolution of international tourism ows (Amelung, Nicholls, & Viner, 2007;Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison, & Tol, 2006;Gössling & Hall, 2006). While demand-side-oriented papers give an interesting insight on how sensitive tourists might react to climate-related changes, a major uncertainty remains in terms of whether or not ad hoc interpretations and stated preferences of tourists can predict future decision-making and tourism-related behavior in a sufcient way (see Gössling & Hall, 2006;Gössling et al., 2012). ...
... Researchers are now engaging in research critiques (Scott & Becken, 2010), and publicise dialogue that moves the field into a new phase of maturity and criticality in a sense of skilful, responsible and reflective thinking (Lai, 2011). The first published debate between researchers in the field focused on the validity of macroeconomic analyses of global tourist flows between Gössling and Hall (2006), and Bigano, Hamilton, Maddison, and Tol (2006). The exchange highlighted disciplinary differences and associated levels of pragmatism when attempting to model complex decision-making in a deterministic way. ...
The academic debate on tourism and climate change has expanded considerably in the last few years. This paper's narrative and systematic review of 459 English-language academic publications (1986 to 2012) synthesises the research on tourism and climate change, identifies key trends and social networks, and provides a critique for further discussion in this evolving knowledge domain. The analysis shows that the size of the field has grown, that research includes multiple dimensions (e.g., climate impacts, adaptation, mitigation, and policy), and that studies have become more integrative and critical. The co-authorship network is characterised by a core, which is disconnected from a more fragmented periphery, whereby the “centre of gravity” comprises a relatively small number of researchers who tend to co-author a large number of publications. The paper concludes that, overall, research on tourism and climate change has developed into a knowledge domain in its own right.
... Literature relating climate change to leisure and recreation and tourism is rapidly growing each year now, but there is also an ongoing debate regarding the robustness and validity of many key results (see Bigano et al., 2006 and Gössling and Hall 2006). For convenience here we will split the recreation-related literature into the " individual/microeconomic demand " studies and second, " expenditure/impact " studies; we note that some existing single studies examine both types of impacts. ...
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major factor that may influence the recreational use of outdoor environments. Despite awareness of the pervasive effects of climate change, its effects on outdoor recreation have only recently been studied in detail. In this study we consider an economic framework that allows the modeling of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on users of recreation resources, via the impacts on natural resources upon which outdoor recreation depends. We also present a brief summary of selected empirical results bearing on climate- sensitive recreational activities. With the relatively small increases in temperature that are likely from near-term climate change, the number of people partaking in certain outdoor recreational activities — such as boating, golfing and beach recreation — is expected to increase by 14 to 36%. Numbers partaking in other activities — most notably snow sports like skiing — will likely fall. We discuss critical areas of future research that are needed to provide more detailed estimate of changes in recreation activities (along with associated economic effects) that are likely to arise from climate change in the future.
... The number of international tourists travelling to a country is the sum of international tourists from the other 206 countries. See Bigano et al., (2006a) for further details. Total expenditure is calculated by multiplying the number of tourists times an estimated value of the average individual expenditure. ...
The present study integrates Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling with biodiversity services, proposing a possible methodology for assessing climate-change impacts on ecosystems. The assessment focuses on climate change impacts on carbon sequestration services provided by European forest, cropland and grassland ecosystems and on provisioning services, but provided by forest and cropland ecosystems only. To do this via a CGE model it is necessary to identify first the role that these ecosystem services play in marketable transactions; then how climate change can impact these services; and finally how the economic system reacts to those changes by adjusting demand and supply across sectors, domestically and internationally
The tourism industry is one of the fastest-growing sectors across the globe. Tourism is not only playing a key role in the development of many small economies but is also considered a major source of income. Tourism-dependent economies are heavily reliant on the tourism sector. This study explored the relationships among energy consumption (EC), economic growth (EG), and tourism (TR) using panel data spanning 2000-2019, for tourism-dependent countries. Panel data methods like feasible generalized least-squares (FGLS) and panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) are employed for empirical analysis. Results reveal that the impact of EC on TR is mixed and sensitive to econometric techniques. While the impact of EG on TR is positive and robust to econometric techniques. We also used other control variables like total population and financial development. The impact of financial development and total population on TR is positive on tourism because they both boosted the tourism industry. Building on these findings, policy recommendations emphasize sustainable energy practices within the tourism industry. This study’s insights guide policymakers toward effective strategies that balance economic growth, energy efficiency and sustainable tourism development, ensuring the resilience of the tourism industry within evolving energy landscapes and economic dynamics.
The rapid development of tourism in emerging countries is a major contributor to the sector’s growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An assessment of emissions produced by Brazilian tourists confirms this trend, and reveals the importance of each country’s unique economic, social and environmental factors, which make it difficult to treat emerging countries as a homogenous group.
This paper explores the possible futures of Brazilian tourism emissions by using various scenarios, starting with the reconstruction of submarkets based on transport modes and distances travelled, using national sources for the year 2010. A reference scenario shows that GHG emissions are likely to be multiplied by four by 2030 and by eight by 2050. Finally, alternative hypotheses on the driving forces behind Brazilians’ domestic and international tourism are combined and used as building blocks to develop alternative scenarios.
The outcome of reasonable mitigation options would maintain tourism’s contribution to national greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 at a level comparable to those currently observed in highly developed countries. However, between 2030 and 2050, tourism emissions would continue to grow, whereas national emissions would diminish. Tourism could therefore become a major burden in national mitigation policies.
Limited attention has been given to the drivers of customer behavior that originate from less direct factors, such as weather. Weather is known to significantly alter consumers’ moods and consequently their behavior. Building on the theoretical alignment between weather, mood, and consumer behavior, this research examined how specific weather factors drive the valence of consumer comments. Furthermore, we explore the relationship between perceived weather, consumers’ moods and affective experience, and word-of-mouth. By analyzing secondary data from 32 restaurants belonging to a national fast-casual chain, this research demonstrates that weather factors such as rain, temperature, and barometric pressure drive consumers’ complaint behavior in restaurants. Additionally, the findings of a survey study and an experimental study indicate that mood and affective experience mediate the relationship between perceived weather and word-of-mouth.
Caribbean Small Island Developing States’ (SIDS’) growing dependence on tourism has called for a close examination of the many variables that can impact sustainability and viability of the industry. For global tourism policymakers, variations in weather and climate top the list of priority areas for forecasting, planning and are, in some circles, a grave concern. Human-induced changes to long-term climate trends have captured the attention of scholars globally and in modern times climate change has emerged as a critical buzzword at the highest levels of global policymaking. Despite much scepticism over the links between human actions and climate variability and the denial of the global warming phenomenon by some (Björnberg et al., Journal of Cleaner Production, 167(20), 229–241, 2017), undeniable evidence exists to support the view that extreme weather conditions, rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and melting of polar ice caps are as a result of carbon emissions and other harmful side effects of the global industrial complex.
This paper presents and discusses some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries. Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a Tourism Climate Index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitations, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. We estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model. We found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. We found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall.
Weather factors have been shown to affect human behavior and mood. On the other hand, mood has a strong effect on total demand and demand for specific products. In this study, we have tested the effect of 17 different weather factors on the demand for specific restaurant menu items. We have also tested the effect of weather factors on the demand for different menu item categories, on hot and cold, and light, medium, and heavy menu items. The results indicate that different weather factors have different effects on different menu items and that the sales of some items are more affected by weather while others are not affected. These results can be used in the process of menu engineering and for the differential pricing of menu items according to the changes in weather factors.
en This article studies how distance influences the choice of tourists about their holiday destination during times of economic crisis. In particular, we analyse the specific case of domestic tourism flows across Italian regions during the 2000–2012 period by estimating a gravity model. Our estimations yield the effect of distance year by year. The output suggests that distance gained weight during the years of the Great Recession and therefore confirms, from a macroeconomic perspective, that tourists tend to choose closer destinations in times of crisis.
Resumen
es Este artículo estudia la influencia de la distancia en la elección de los turistas sobre el destino de sus vacaciones en tiempos de crisis económica. En particular, se analizó el caso específico de los flujos de turismo interno en las regiones italianas durante el período 2000‐2012, mediante la estimación de un modelo de gravedad. El resultado de las estimaciones es el efecto de la distancia año por año. El resultado sugiere que el peso de la distancia aumentó durante los años de la Gran Recesión y por lo tanto confirma que, desde una perspectiva macroeconómica, los turistas tienden a elegir destinos más cercanos en tiempos de crisis.
抄録
ja 本稿では、経済危機の期間における旅行者の目的地の選択に、行程の距離がどのように影響するかを検討する。2000年から2012年までのイタリアの地方の国内旅行者のフローの事例で、重力モデルによる推計により分析する。推計は、距離の効果が年々増えているという結果になった。結果は、グレート・リセッションの期間は、距離が重みを増しており、マクロ経済学的観点では、危機の間は旅行者がより短い行程を選択する傾向があることが確認できる。
This chapter estimates the trends, impacts and responses of Mediterranean tourism, with special emphasis on coastal areas. It presents some part of the work done by two research lines (Economic impacts, Induced policies), namely scenarios for future tourism flows (regional and national scales) and a method for assessing vulnerability of local destinations.
Tourism has complex relationships with weather and climate, and there is consensus that tourism could be substantially affected by climatic change. While considerable research has been presented on how climatic change is likely to affect destinations and tourism stakeholders in the future, there remains limited understanding of the weather preferences of tourists. This is a research priority if the implications of climatic change for the temporal and geographic patterns of tourism demand are to be assessed with more relevance. This paper presents the results of a survey (n = 1643 respondents) of the weather preferences of French tourists. Results show the ranking of weather and climate as a factor of destination choice and satisfaction. They also indicate the high tolerance of tourists to heat and even to heat waves, whereas rainy conditions appear to be clearly repulsive. The weight of precipitation in indices like the Tourism Comfort Index should therefore be upgraded. The findings are also compared with studies in other countries. Slight differences in similar surveys can lead to a discrepancy in the appreciation of excessive heat and associated thresholds by 2–3 °C, which might limit the possibility to base climate change impact assessment on such fragile data.
Climate change is increasingly apparent. They manifest in all spheres of life, including tourism, a leisure activity sensitive to climate. Our research underscores the fact that when seen through the lens of tourism geography, climate, one of the components of tourism destinations, is a decisive factor. Having become a mass phenomenon, sensitive to the altering of optimal climatic parameters for tourism due to the global warming process, tourism clearly stands under the influence of climate change. The study also explores the possible measures of accommodation to such phenomena that human society can resort to, obviously at rather high costs: coastal improvements and the restructuring of hydrographic basins, the "elevation" of mountain resorts to higher altitudes, the integrated planning of activity in the tourism sector with activity in other fields, and so on.
This paper will briefly review the impacts of climate change on the Wet Tropics and the Great Barrier Reef, and then will discuss the results of an exploratory study into tourists perceptions of 1) the impact of climate change on the Wet Tropics and Great Barrier Reef and the tourism industry in Cairns, and 2) what tourists can do to mitigate these impacts. A survey was administered to 81 tourists in Cairns, Australia. The results suggest that tourists have a range of outlooks concerning the impact of climate change in Cairns and the role of tourists in mitigating these impacts.
This section introduces the main methodologies used by the climate change impact science to assess economically the consequences of climate change. Furthermore it presents the main findings of this literature focusing specifically on possible future economic consequences of climate change in the Mediterranean area emphasizing the new knowledge in this field brought by the CIRCE project. The robust finding of the literature points out a low economic vulnerability of Euro-Mediterranean countries (with losses ranging from −0.25 to −1.4% of GDP for extreme temperature scenarios or even slight gains), and a higher vulnerability of North African and Eastern-Mediterranean countries (of roughly 2% of GDP by the mid of the century). Against this background the CIRCE project proposes one of the first attempts to perform a detailed integrated impact assessment exercise focusing on the Mediterranean area. With the IPCC A1B SRES scenario as reference, impacts related to energy demand, sea-level rise and tourism, have been economically assessed by a general equilibrium model. The Mediterranean as a whole loses 1.2% of GDP with the Northern-Mediterranean countries clearly less vulnerable than the Southern-Mediterranean ones. Among the former the average loss in 2050 is 0.5% of GDP, while among the latter this more than doubles. Particularly adversely affected are Cyprus, Albania and the Eastern Mediterranean region (−1.6, −2.4, −1.5% of GDP respectively in 2050). In terms of impact types, tourism and sea-level rise are clearly the most threatening, while GDP impacts induced by demand re-composition of energy use is less of an issue and often positive.
Climate change is the single most important global environmental and development issue facing the world today and has emerged as a major topic in tourism studies. Climate change is already affecting the tourism industry and is anticipated to have profound implications for tourism in the twenty-first century, including consumer holiday choices, the geographic patterns of tourism demand, the competitiveness and sustainability of destinations and the contribution of tourism to international development.
Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R 2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8– 23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.
The aim of this study was to explore how university students of Spain perceive
climate change and its effects on and relationship to the Spanish tourism sector,
and their attitudes towards this issue. This included the identification of the
problem, the relative importance it was given compared to other problems,
assessment of the potential threat it posed to the tourism sector and appraisal of
the contribution made by the tourism sector to climate change. The methodology
employed was a survey: 400 individual questionnaires were administered to
university students. The exploitation of the information collected is performed by
using univariate descriptive procedures. The results indicate a low level of
awareness among this young segment of population of the risks associated with
climate change, which is seen as representing little threat to the tourism sector
and as being distant in time and space. Through our study, we aimed to
contribute to filling the void which currently exists as regards to understanding
how different segments of population construct their representations of the
inter-relationship between climate change and tourism, since such knowledge
could help improve the effectiveness of the adaptation and mitigation strategies
which are being, or could be designed and implemented in both the public and
private tourism sectors.
Deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, accounting for around 17% of total global GHG discharges. As the role forests play in the global carbon cycle has been widely recognized, several studies analysing the potential contribution of avoided deforestation credits in a carbon market have already been performed, showing that these credits should play a substantial role in an overall portfolio of mitigation strategies. Using a dynamic, multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the ICES model (Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System), this paper follows a novel approach, since deforestation emission reductions are not linked to a global carbon market, as commonly used. Instead, we use a global warming approach which provides an additional valuation criteria: the market general equilibrium value of halting/reducing deforestation, based on climate change impacts. This exercise consists on the formulation of a scenario where carbon emissions from deforestation are reduced by 50% and 100%, thereby producing a different CO2 concentration levels in the atmosphere and a corresponding variation in temperature. Those changes in temperature in turn impact the economy at various levels, and the corresponding indirect effects are then assessed. Moreover, such an exercise may provide additional information to policy makers considering the creation/participation of an international fund to protect tropical forests. In fact, market valuation for avoided deforestation can be provided not only for a complete halt of deforestation but also for different reduction targets. Finally, and taking advantage of the dynamic feature of the model, different paths for a same global level of reduced deforestation are simulated, shedding new lights on the temporal value of reduced deforestation.
This report focuses on the effects of climate change impacts on economic growth. Simulations with the OECD’s dynamic global general equilibrium model ENV-Linkages assess the consequences of a selected number of climate change impacts in the various world regions at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. This is complemented with an assessment of very long-run implications, using the AD-RICE model. The analysis finds that the effect of climate change impacts on annual global GDP is projected to increase over time, leading to a global GDP loss of 0.7% to 2.5% by 2060 for the most likely equilibrium climate sensitivity range. Underlying these annual global GDP losses are much larger sectoral and regional variations. Agricultural impacts dominate in most regions, while damages from sea level rise gradually become more important. Negative economic consequences are especially large in South and South-East Asia whereas other regions will be less affected and, in some cases, benefit thanks to adjustments from international trade. Emissions to 2060 will have important consequences in later decades and centuries. Simulations with the AD-RICE model suggest that if emissions continue to grow after 2060, annual damages of climate change could reach 1.5%-4.8% of GDP by the end of the century. Some impacts and risks from climate change have not been quantified in this study, including extreme weather events, water stress and large-scale disruptions. These will potentially have large economic consequences, and on balance the costs of inaction presented here likely underestimate the full costs of climate change impacts. More research is needed to assess them as well as the various uncertainties and risks involved. However, this should not delay policy action, but rather induce policy frameworks that are able to deal with new information and with the fact that by their nature some uncertainties and risks will never be resolved.
Purpose – This paper aims to present and discuss some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries.
Design/methodology/approach – Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a tourism climate index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitation, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. The authors estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model.
Findings – The authors found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. The authors found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall. Research limitations/implications – A great deal of uncertainty affects, in particular: estimates of future climate conditions, especially for variables different from temperature, the relationship between climate and tourist demand, and its interaction with socio-economic variables. This also depends on the reliability of the TCI index as an indicator of climate suitability for tourism, on its application to spatially and temporally aggregated data, on the degree of responsiveness of tourism demand to variations in the TCI. Furthermore, as the authors followed here a single region approach, the authors were not able to consider in the estimates the impact of climate change on the global tourism industry. Nonetheless, the authors believe that a quantitative analysis like the one presented here is not without scope. First, it provides an order of magnitude for the impact of climate change on tourism and the national economy. Second, it allows to assess systemic and second-order effects, which are especially relevant in this context and, moreover, appear to be sufficiently robust to alternative model specifications. In other words, the value added of this study does not lie in the specific figures obtained by numerical computations, but on the broader picture emerging from the overall exercise. Originality/value – To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study in which, by assessing higher tourism attractiveness into a general equilibrium framework, the effect described above is detected and highlighted.
This dissertation explores the use and development of computable models for environmental policy assessment. It is aimed at improving methodologies, extending the range of applications and elaborating on the theoretical underpinnings of the models.
Chapters 1, 2, 3 and 4 all deal with the economics of water resources. Most of them make use of computable general equilibrium models to assess the effects of future water availability on the economy of the Mediterranean. Chapter 2 addresses methodological issues arising in the estimation of “virtual water” flows, whereas Chapter 5 explores some aspects of sustainable economic growth in a theoretical setting.
In particular, Chapter 1 builds and illustrates four scenarios, assessing future water availability in the Mediterranean and its macroeconomic implications. The scenarios are constructed by considering forecasts of economic and demographic growth, as well as climate change and environmental policies. It is found that some northern Mediterranean countries will face insufficient water supply for agricultural sectors, because of climate change and reduced precipitation, whereas other southern Mediterranean countries will face similar problems mainly caused, however, by strong economic and demographic development.
Chapter 2 discusses some methodological issues associated with the estimation of virtual water flows, which refer to the volume of water used in the production of a commodity or service, and virtually exchanged through conventional trade. In this paper, we argue that conventional methods for the computation of virtual water flows may bring about biased estimates, thereby limiting the usefulness of the virtual water concept as a tool for informing water policy. We propose a new approach, accounting for both direct and indirect water consumption, that is the one associated with the use of intermediate factors. Furthermore, we distinguish between green (soil moisture) and blue (surface) water resources, which is important because green and blue water have different opportunity-costs.
Chapter 3 analyzes current and future virtual water trade patterns in the Mediterranean. The future scenario is obtained by means of a computable general equilibrium model, where the effects of reduced agricultural productivity, induced by lower water availability, are simulated. The analysis highlights a future reduction of intra-Mediterranean virtual water trade and an increase of virtual imports from central and northern Europe, as well as from the rest of the world.
Chapter 4 considers the consequences, in terms of water demand and economic performance, of climate change-induced variations in tourism flows, for a number of southern European economies. It is found that additional tourists from abroad would increase income and welfare in a hosting country, but they would also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. The reduction in agricultural production would entail a lower demand for water, possibly counteracting the additional request coming from the tourism sector.
Chapter 5 follows a rather different approach, in examining the implications of alternative assumptions on discounting in a theoretical model of economic growth, in which one natural resource (which could possibly be interpreted as water quality level) affects the inter-temporal utility of a representative consumer. The chapter builds upon Smulders (2007), who analyses a model of economic growth with renewable resource dynamics, to study how society's discount rate and the inter-temporal optimization process affect the long-run stock of an environmental resource.
The concept of relative vulnerability allows for comparisons between analogous units in a regional context. It is utilised within tourism studies to consider how climate change might affect demand and perceived attractiveness of destinations relative to their competitors. This paper examines Australian tourists travelling to New Zealand’s ski fields, responding to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) assertion that, “tourist flows from Australia to New Zealand might grow as a result of the relatively poorer snow conditions in Australia” (Hennessy et al. 2007: p 523). This travel flow is not a new phenomenon; however, it is forecast to increase as climate change impacts upon Australia’s natural and man-made snowmaking capacity with implications for the viability of the ski industries in both Australia and New Zealand. The Queenstown Lakes Region (South Island, New Zealand) serves as the field area for this study. The empirical research utilises a qualitative methodology for which in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with New Zealand ski industry representatives and Australian tourists during the southern hemisphere winter season of 2011. Findings suggest that the social context of vulnerability creates difficulty in forecasting the outcomes and behaviours associated with relative vulnerability. While tourism representatives’ focus on snow reliability and availability to conceptualise relative vulnerability, Australian tourists are influenced by a broader range of factors including their own travel experience. This paper demonstrates a clear need to move beyond a focus on snow reliability to consider the broad range of factors that contribute to regional variations in vulnerability. In doing so, it confirms the critical importance of situating relative vulnerability within a social context.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse perceptions among European tourism experts specialising in tourism planning regarding the impact that climate change may have on tourism management.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology used was the double convergent Delphi Method. A total of 70 European experts in tourism planning were surveyed to determine their opinions. Two focus groups of experts were organised, first to fine‐tune the questionnaire before implementing the Delphi method and, second, to check the results afterwards.
Findings
The most noteworthy findings expressed were: climate change has already begun; life in the forthcoming decades will be subject to constant uncertainty; there is a clear perception of responsibility; there is a reluctance to accept repressive taxation but support for renewable energy incentives; and there is a call for responsible growth based on integrated destination management, public‐private co‐responsibility and the application of mitigation/adaptation measures. Additionally, climate change is already threatening tourist enterprises, and an efficient integrated management system in companies and tourist destinations will be required to cope with its negative effects.
Research limitations/implications
The limits of this research are those inherent in the Delphi method itself, which is highly opinion‐based. To reduce this, the sample was broadened to include 70 interviewees instead of the 30 traditionally used.
Practical implications
The practical implications lie in offering an exploratory vision of climate change from experts' perception; their outlook considerably broadens the field of reflection.
Originality/value
Additionally, the value of the paper is to allow discussion on the perception of experts in tourism planning regarding climate change in the Euro‐Mediterranean region.
This introductory paper discusses tourism's role in relation to climate change mitigation and adaptation, at a time when climate change is at the forefront of many political discussions, including the 2009 Climate Summit in Copenhagen, and many business decisions. The development of tourism research in response to climate change in the past 25 years is outlined and limitations are identified. The paper also argues that while growing engagement with the challenge of climate change is evident across the tourism industry, this is still limited and not widespread. The minor role played by tourism interests in the international climate negotiations in Copenhagen is noted and discussed. Questions are raised around the willingness and ability of both the tourism industry and tourists to significantly reduce global emissions. The papers brought together in this Special Issue (Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18.3) both highlight key challenges that tourism faces in its attempts to better understand and manage the problem of climate change, and suggest valuable ways forward.
Tourism will be highly impacted upon by climate change and adaptation and mitigation policies implemented by other agencies. This paper seeks to increase our understanding of the role tourism plays in relation to climate change policies and identifies gaps where specific tourism policy might be required to address climate change. Based on the case studies of Fiji and New Zealand, common areas of concern relating to climate change will be identified, existing policy settings discussed and challenges of the policy development process explored. Existing climate policies were found to cover tourism for many issues, either directly or indirectly, and tourism‐specific policy needs relate mainly to a better integration with these policies, education and capacity building, business performance and marketing. The participatory process and the creation of a tourism‐climate change policy network have proven successful in both case studies.
Climatic variability and a substantial fraction of the most recent temperature warming in the Northern Hemisphere can be accounted for by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The most pronounced anomalies have occurred since the winter of 1989, with significant implications on weather conditions in areas within the index's geographical scope. Because climate is one of the most important factors in explaining world movements by humans, in this paper, variability patterns between quarterly Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), compiled by the European Airline Association, and the NAO index are investigated as a function of different time lags and diverse economic indicators, with the aim of evaluating the impact of NAO variability and trends that can be associated with the change in RPK since the nineties. Using a traditional international air travel demand model, it has been found that the dissociation of the NAO index into positive and negative fluctuations can be related to changes in different geographical RPK time series, once seasonal effects are removed. The results are consistent with the view that meteorological and climate conditions can act as both a pull and push factor.
Tourism is a climate-dependent industry, and many destinations owe their popularity to their pleasant climates during traditional holiday seasons. This article explores the potential implications of climate change for global tourism, with special emphasis on seasonality. Combination of two climate change scenarios with the Tourism Climatic Index reveals that the locations of climatically ideal tourism conditions are likely to shift poleward under projected climate change. Whereas destinations such as the Mediterranean may see shifts in their peak seasons from summer months to current shoulder periods, regions in higher latitudes are likely to experience a lengthening of their summer seasons. The effects of these changes will depend greatly on the flexibility demonstrated by institutions and tourists as they react to climate change, with substantial implications for both spatial and temporal redistribution of tourism activities. The reader is referred to http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210- journal.pdf to view the full series of color maps accompanying these analyses.
A study was conducted in Zanzibar, Tanzania, in order to understand tourist perceptions of climate change, the importance of climate for travel decisions, and the likely consequences of ongoing climate change for travel decisions. The results show that climatic characteristics of destinations are important, though not the only factor shaping travel decisions. Under a scenario of climate change, certain climate variables, such as more rain, storms, and higher humidity are also likely to negatively influence travel decisions, rather than higher temperatures alone, which are not necessarily perceived as negative. Regarding the contribution of travel to climate change, the study reveals that leisure tourists in Zanzibar are largely unaware of their impact on the natural environment, while the analysis of stated travel behaviour shows that they frequently travel by air. Overall, the results indicate that travel flows might change in more complex ways than currently assumed, and that a small share of high-intensity air travellers is responsible for a considerable environmental impact in terms of climate change.
Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, “warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred
environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are
essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change,
modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of
renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gössling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change
to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is
one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing
number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise
and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has
been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including “most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in
environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of
importance in developing plans for adaptation.
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of attractors includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the optimal climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations.
This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists’ expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.
This study examines if tourists actively inform themselves about the climate of their planned destination. In addition, we examine where they inform themselves and at what point in the holiday decision-making process. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to tourists at the airport, international bus station, and the train station in Hamburg during July and August 2004. Of the 394 respondents, 73% stated that they informed themselves about the climate of their destination. Moreover, the majority of them informed themselves about climate before booking (42%). Nevertheless, a large percentage of the tourists sampled state that they informed themselves shortly before their trip. Interestingly, a significantly large share of the respondents said that they checked the weather at their destination in the week before their trip.
Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors. Tourism is obviously related to climate, as tourists prefer spending time outdoors and travel to enjoy the sun or landscape. It is therefore surprising that the tourism literature pays little attention to climate and climatic change and it is equally surprising that the climate change impact literature pays little attention to tourism. The number of studies on tourism and climate change is, however, starting to grow. This paper reviews this literature, discussing shortcomings and recent developments in global modeling of tourism flows are presented. The range of methods used and issues studied in the literature is large, and findings are correspondingly diverse. However, all studies agree that climate change matters to tourism and recreation. Future avenues of inquiry are also discussed.
This work grew from initiatives of the International Society of Biometeorology's Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation (ISBCCTR). The ISBCCTR was formed during the 15th Congress of the ISB held in November 1999 in Sydney, Australia. The aim of ISBCCTR is to promote research in tourism climatology. The first formal meeting of the Commission took place at the Meliton Resort, Halkidiki, Greece, 5-10 October 2001. The aims were to (1) bring together a selection of scientists and tourism experts to review the current state of knowledge of tourism climatology and (2) explore areas and priorities for future work and the role of the Commission in this. The Workshop highlighted the fact that, although climate is widely recognised as vitally important to tourism, relatively little is known about its effects. Even less is known about the economic impact or significance of climate on commercial prospects for tourism. Important research themes that warrant attention were identified. Among these was the need for a tourism climate index (or indices) that integrates all facets of climate, uses standard data and is objectively tested and verified. Work is also required on developing a better understanding of what climate-related information is required by both tourists and the tourism industry, exploring the distinction between the impact of climate on tourists and the impact on the tourism industry, setting a standard approach to tourism climate assessment, assessing the role of weather forecasts and long-term expectations of climate on choices made by tourists, the risks to tourism caused by extreme atmospheric events, what climate-related criteria people use to make decisions about tourism and recreational choices, how products giving information about weather and climate are currently used by the recreation and tourism industry and what are the existing and future requirements for this climate information.
Natural and anthropogenic global changes are associated with substantial ecological disturbances. Multiscale interconnections among disciplines studying the biotic and abiotic effects of such disturbances are needed. Three research paradigms traditionally have been used and are reviewed here: scale-up, scale-down, and scale-up with embedded scale-down components. None of these approaches by themselves can provide the most reliable ecological assessments. A fourth research paradigm, called strategic cyclical scaling (SCS), is relatively more effective. SCS involves continuous cycling between large- and small-scale studies, thereby offering improved understanding of the behavior of complex environmental systems and allowing more reliable forecast capabilities for analyzing the ecological consequences of global changes.
We present a simulation model of the flow of tourists between 207 countries, used to study the impact of climate change on international tourism. The model almost perfectly reproduces the calibration year 1995, and performs well in reproducing the observations for 1980, 1985 and 1990. The model is used to generate scenarios of international tourist departures and arrivals for the period 2000-2075, with particular emphasis on climate change; we report variations on a single baseline scenario (A1B). The growth rate of international tourism is projected to increase over the coming decades, but may slow down later in the century, as demand for travel saturates. Emissions of carbon dioxide would increase quickly as well. With climate change, preferred destinations would shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Tourists from temperate climates would spend more holidays in their home countries. As such tourists currently dominate the international tourism market, climate change would decrease worldwide tourism. Nevertheless, its effects are small compared to the baseline projections of population and economic growth.
Tourism demand has been extensively studied by tourism economists under the economic framework. On the other hand travel motivation has also been widely analyzed by the researchers using socio-psychological framework. The focus of this study is to discuss both of these frameworks and to propose a combined framework which illustrates that the root of tourism market demand could be found in both economic and socio-psychological theories and that market demand could be derived from factors underpinning both theories—theories of destination choice and theory of market demand. Climate as an important socio-psychological variable is incorporated into tourism demand analysis through error correction model. The results shed new lights to the potential of the proposed framework in revealing tourism demand.
Tourism is a major sector of the global economy, and it is strongly influenced by climate. At some travel destinations, climate represents the natural resource on which the tourism industry is predicated. Global climate change has the potential to alter the distribution of climate assets among tourism destinations, with implications for tourism seasonality, demand and travel patterns. Changes in the length and quality of the tourism season have considerable implications for the long-term profitability of tourism enterprises and competitive relationships between destinations. This analysis utilizes a 'tourism climate index' (TCI) that incorporates 7 climate variables relevant to general tourism activities (i.e. sightseeing) to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of climate resources for tourism in North America under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and 2 climate change scenarios (CGCM2-B2 and HadCM3-A1F1) for the 2050s and 2080s. The analysis found that a substantive redistribution of climate resources for tourism will be possible in the later decades of the 21st century, particularly in the warmer and wetter HadCM3-A1F1 scenario. The number of cities in the USA with 'excellent' or' ideal' TCI ratings (TCI > 80) in the winter months is likely to increase, so that southern Florida and Arizona could face increasing competition for winter sun holiday travelers and the seasonal 'snowbird' market (retirees from Canada and the northern states of the USA, who spend 2 to 6 mo in winter peak and optimal climate destinations). In contrast, lower winter TCI ratings in Mexico suggest it could become less competitive as a winter sun holiday destination. In Canada, a longer and improved warm-weather tourism season may enhance its competitiveness in the international tourism marketplace, with potentially positive implications for its current international tourism account deficit.
Intervention analysis is used to measure the impacts of terrorism, war, and the recent foot and mouth epidemic on the expenditures of tourists visiting the United Kingdom and UK tourists going abroad. Results show that the expenditure was robust to such acts in the 80s, rapidly returning to the norm after a crisis. It was less so in relation to the Gulf War, the foot and mouth epidemic, and the disaster of September 11. The latter events contributed significantly to the increasing magnitude and variability of the UK’s deficit balance of payments from tourism. However, the scale of these impacts suggests that tourism may be more robust in the face of disaster than is usually thought.RésuméLes interventions dans les profits au Royaume-Uni et les dépenses à l’étranger. On utilise l’analyse d’intervention pour mesurer les impacts du terrorisme, de la guerre et de la récente épidémie de fièvre aphteuse sur les dépenses des touristes visitant le Royaume-Uni ainsi que des touristes du Royaume-Uni à l’étranger. Les résultats montrent que les dépenses étaient robustes à de tels événements dans les années 80, avec un retour rapide à la norme après une crise. Cela n’a pas été tellement le cas en relation à la guerre du Golfe, l’épidémie de la fièvre aphteuse et le désastre du 11 septembre. Ces derniers événements ont contribué de façon significative à l’ampleur et à la variabilité croissante du déficit de la balance des paiements du tourisme au Royaume-Uni. Pourtant, l’échelle de ces impacts suggère que le tourisme est peut-être plus robuste face aux désastres que l’on croit d’habitude.
Detailed descriptive classifications according to the decade of publication, type of data, sample sizes, model specifications, the types of dependent and explanatory variables used, and the number of explanatory variables used, are provided and reviewed for 100 published studies of empirical international tourism demand models. Most of the studies undertaken have been published in the 80s, have used annual data, and have been based on estimation of loglinear single-equation models. Tourist arrivals/departures and expenditures/receipts have been the most frequently used dependent variables. The most popular explanatory variables used have been income, relative tourism prices, and transportation costs.RésuméUn inventaire des modèles de la demande du tourisme international. L'article présente le compte rendu de 100 études publiées de modèles empiriques de la demande du tourisme international, avec des classifications descriptives et détaillées selon la décennie de publication, type de données, étendue de l'enquête, spécifications du modèle, types de variables dépendantes et explicatives et nombre de variables explicatives. La plupart des études ont été publiées aux années 80, ont utilisé des données annuelles et ont été basées sur l'estimation des modèles à registre linéaire et àéquation unique. Les variables qui ont été utilisées les plus fréquemment sont les départs/arrivées des touristes et les dépenses/recettes. Les variables explicatives les plus utilisées ont été revenu, prix relatifs du tourisme et coût des transports.
The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes.
The vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling technique is used to forecast tourist flows to Macau from eight major origin countries/regions over the period 2003–2008. The existing literature shows that the VAR model is capable of producing accurate medium- to long-term forecasts, and also separate forecasts of the explanatory variables are not required. A further justification for using the VAR technique is that it permits an impulse response analysis to be performed in order to examine the ways in which the demand for Macau tourism responds to the ‘shocks’ in the economic variables within the VAR system. The implications of this analysis are discussed. The forecasts generated by the VAR models suggest that Macau will face increasing tourism demand by residents from mainland China. Since the needs of Chinese tourists tend to be different from those from other origin countries/regions, especially Western countries, the business sectors in Macau need to pay considerable attention to catering for the needs of Chinese tourists.
We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.
Climatic variability and a substantial fraction of the most recent temperature warming in the Northern Hemisphere can be accounted for by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The most pronounced anomalies have occurred since the winter of 1989, with significant implications on weather conditions in areas within the index's geographical scope. Because climate is one of the most important factors in explaining world movements by humans, in this paper, variability patterns between quarterly Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), compiled by the European Airline Association, and the NAO index are investigated as a function of different time lags and diverse economic indicators, with the aim of evaluating the impact of NAO variability and trends that can be associated with the change in RPK since the nineties. Using a traditional international air travel demand model, it has been found that the dissociation of the NAO index into positive and negative fluctuations can be related to changes in different geographical RPK time series, once seasonal effects are removed. The results are consistent with the view that meteorological and climate conditions can act as both a pull and push factor.
Climatic variability and a substantial fraction of the most recent temperature warming in the Northern Hemisphere can be accounted for by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The most pronounced anomalies have occurred since the winter of 1989, with significant implications on weather conditions in areas within the index's geographical scope. Because climate is one of the most important factors in explaining world movements by humans, in this paper, variability patterns between quarterly Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), compiled by the European Airline Association, and the NAO index are investigated as a function of different time lags and diverse economic indicators, with the aim of evaluating the impact of NAO variability and trends that can be associated with the change in RPK since the nineties. Using a traditional international air travel demand model, it has been found that the dissociation of the NAO index into positive and negative fluctuations can be related to changes in different geographical RPK time series, once seasonal effects are removed. The results are consistent with the view that meteorological and climate conditions can act as both a pull and push factor.
Climatic variability and a substantial fraction of the most recent temperature warming in the Northern Hemisphere can be accounted for by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The most pronounced anomalies have occurred since the winter of 1989, with significant implications on weather conditions in areas within the index's geographical scope. Because climate is one of the most important factors in explaining world movements by humans, in this paper, variability patterns between quarterly Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), compiled by the European Airline Association, and the NAO index are investigated as a function of different time lags and diverse economic indicators, with the aim of evaluating the impact of NAO variability and trends that can be associated with the change in RPK since the nineties. Using a traditional international air travel demand model, it has been found that the dissociation of the NAO index into positive and negative fluctuations can be related to changes in different geographical RPK time series, once seasonal effects are removed. The results are consistent with the view that meteorological and climate conditions can act as both a pull and push factor.
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