Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites
... The analysis of the subject will be treated through a phenomenological hermeneutical approach since it is necessary to analyze different points of view. The results will be processed with the help of the neutrosophic cognitive maps (NCM), coming from the theory of Neutrosophy proposed by Florentin Smarandache for the treatment of neutralities, which has been proven by the possibility of enriching the analysis and converting linguistic terms into quantitative variables [15,[20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. The NCM according to [13] is a way of representing knowledge by means of a graph, the strength between the relationship can be measured, so it is used in social studies [15,28,[36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. ...
... Hence, the neutrosophic logic is a generalization of fuzzy logic, based on the concept of neutrosophy according to [29,33]. [27,28]) Let K be the ring of real numbers. The ring generated by KI is called a neutrosophic ring if it involves the indeterminacy factor in it, where I satisfies I2 = I, I + I = 2I and in general, I + I + ... + I = nI, if k, then kI = kI, 0I = 0. ...
... [27] Let = {( , , ): , , ∈ [0,1]} be a neutrosophic set of evaluation. v: P→N is a mapping of a group of propositional formulas into N, ie, each sentence p is associated to a value in N, as it is exposed in Equation 1, meaning that p is T% true, I% indeterminate, and F% false. ...
The homeless are a social group that does not have a profession, job, basic rights, or a house to live in, and have been excluded by society. In Quito, Ecuador, especially in the center, it is common to see people living on the street without a roof or a dwelling to live in. They are referred to by society as the excluded population, marginalized, homeless, among other terms. Living on the street does not imply having to be a victim of aggression, but there are more demonstrations of this type of behavior every day. There are several organizations designed to help or improve the lifestyle of these people to mitigate this situation. Then, to contribute to the strengthening of the work of these institutions, the research objective of this research is to develop a cause-and-effect analysis of the crimes committed against the homeless, improving their services with knowledge, standards, and methods to be able to manage the problem, along with activities to guide the Homeless to contribute to the Good Living Plan. For the research development, a hermeneutical approach was applied and a cause-effect tree based on the neutrosophic cognitive maps was built.
... They also include inferences that address connections where certain beliefs, called "antecedents," trigger other beliefs, called "consequents" (belief -> belief), and, ultimately, decisions (belief -> belief -> . . .-> decision) (Abelson & Carroll, 1965;Axelrod, 1976). Because beliefs relate to such a wide range of internal and external factors, this framework allows researchers to systematically trace how decisions are made. ...
... It combines graph theory (Cartwright, Harary, & Norman, 1965), causal inference (Simon, 1957), psychologic (Rosenberg & Abelson, 1958), evaluative assertion analysis (Osgood, Saporta, & Nunnally, 1956), and decision theory (Luce & Raiffa, 1957). Numerous applications have traced high-stakes decision-making in complex situations related to British intervention in Persia (Axelrod, 1976), wars between Israel and Arab countries (Bonham, Shapiro, & Trumble, 1979), rivalry between the Mongols and the Ming dynasty (Johnston, 1998), violent versus nonviolent resistance (Dornschneider, 2016), the housing market (Ferreira & Jalali, 2015), or environmental planning (Argent et al., 2016). ...
... An inference is a directed relationship between at least two beliefs where one belief-the antecedent-triggers another belief-the consequent (cf. Abelson & Carroll, 1965;Axelrod, 1976). For example, B1 "The government is attacking the citizens" could be an antecedent triggering consequent B2 "Citizens are dying" (B1 -> B2). ...
People experiencing similar conditions may make different decisions, and their belief systems provide insight about these differences. An example of high‐stakes decision‐making within a complex social context is the Arab Spring, in which large numbers of people decided to protest and even larger numbers decided to stay at home. This study uses qualitative analyses of interview narratives and social media addressing individual decisions to develop a computational model tracing the cognitive decision‐making process. The model builds on work by Abelson and Carroll (1965), Schank and Abelson ( a1977), and Axelrod (1976) to systematically trace the inferences connecting beliefs to decisions. The findings show that protest decisions were often based on positive emotions such as pride, hope, courage, and solidarity, triggered by beliefs about successful protest and self‐sacrifice. By contrast, decisions to stay at home were triggered by beliefs about safety, state approval, and living conditions. As one participant said, “When I heard about the revolution in Tunisia, my heart was filled with solidarity for the people.” In the words of a non‐participant: “When people are killed, we must be careful. There are more important things than protest: safety and stability.” This study of individual explanations about events identifies the role of emotions in high‐stakes decision‐making within complex social environments.
... The following is a set of definitions necessary for working with NCMs. First, let's formally expose the original definition of neutrosophic logic as shown in [18]. ...
... (See [17,18]) Let K be the ring of real numbers. The ring generated by KI is called a neutrosophic ring if it involves the indeterminacy factor in it, where I satisfies I2 = I, I + I = 2I and in general, I + I + ... + I = nI, if k, then kI = kI, 0I = 0. ...
The application of the principle of innocence in Ecuador has irregularities since there has been an abuse of preventive detention, violating the constitutional and normative principle of the presumption of innocence. The justification for the preventive detention lies in the alleged need to ensure the accused's appearance. This turns this form of insurance into an early conviction because by proving his innocence at the hearing,the accused has already been unjustly deprived of his freedom, which leads him to suffer another series of damages. Therefore, it is necessary to study the subject to determine how to achieve its proper application. Thus, the main objective of this research is to analyze the legal panorama on the adequate application of the principle of innocence. For this, the neutrosophic Iadov method was applied to measure satisfaction with the regulatory legislation to determine an action plan for its correct application with the use of neutrosophic cognitive maps.
... The second stage of cognitive modeling of complex systems is the stage of studying the properties of the cognitive model (stability, connectivity, complexity, etc.). The presence of this stage makes cognitive modeling of complex systems, for example [10,11] different from traditional works on cognitive modeling of socio-economic and political systems, such as, for example [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][18][19][20][21][22]. ...
... In addition, cycle analysis allows you to determine the structural stability of the model. The analysis of structural stability is carried out according to the results of determining the cycles of the cognitive map [3,10,24,25]. If the model has an odd number of negative cycles, then it is considered structurally stable. ...
The article discusses topical issues of the influence of informatization on the development of the country’s regions in the conditions of the modern unstable world. The nature of the development of a region can be reflected and understood on the basis of qualitative and quantitative information about its socio-economic indicators, about their relationship and trends in their changes under the influence of internal and external factors. At the same time, information can most often be incomplete, difficult to access, untimely, contradictory, etc. Therefore, in this paper, it is proposed to use a cognitive approach and cognitive modeling of complex systems to overcome the problems of information deficiency by imitating cognitive modeling of the structure and behavior of a complex regional system. The simulation was carried out using the author’s CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Complex System) software system. The results of multi-stage cognitive modeling, consisting in the development of cognitive maps “Influence of ICT on the state of the region” and “Digitalization of the republic” (according to the socio-economic state of the Republic of Dagestan), analysis of structural properties and modeling scenarios for the development of situations on the model are presented. Scenarios make it possible to foresee the ways of possible development of the system under the influence of various factors, including the factor of informatization.
... Analytically based on the conclusion based on expert knowledge of the physical (technical, economic, social, etc.) laws that determine the functioning of the simulated system. This modeling method includes the construction of systems of differential equations [12], cognitive modeling [3,4,13,14], modeling based on operations research methods [15,16], simulation modeling [17][18][19], 2. ...
The study of causal dependencies in economics is fraught with great difficulties, that it is required to consider not only the object structure, but also take into account a huge number of factors acting on the object, about which nothing is either known or difficult to measure. In this paper, we attempt to overcome this problem and apply the theory of statistical causality for labor productivity management. We suggest new technology that provides the inference of causal relations between the special programs implemented in the company’s and employee’s labor productivity. The novelty of the proposed technology is that it is based on a hybrid object model, combines two models: 1—the structural object model about its functioning and development to provide a causal inference and prediction the effect of explicit factors; 2—the model based on observed data to clarify causality and to test it empirically. The technology provides integration of the theory of causal Bayesian networks, methods of randomized controlled experiments and statistical methods, allows under nonlinearity, dynamism, stochasticity and non-stationarity of the initial data, to evaluate the effect of programs on the labor effeciency. The difference between the proposed technology and others is that it ensures determination the synergistic effect of the action of the cause (program) on the effect—labor productivity in condition of hidden factors. The practical significance of the research is the results of its testing the proposed theoretical provisions, methods and technologies on actual data about food service company. The results obtained could contribute to the labor productivity growth over uncertainty of the external and internal factors and provide the companies sustainable development and its profitability growth.
... Son un tipo de grafo cuyos vértices representan conceptos y sus aristas las relaciones causales entre estos. Fueron presentados por Kosko (1986), donde los valores que simbolizan relación están en el intervalo [-1, 1], e incluyen una gradación entre las relaciones de los conceptos (Axelrod, 1976;Ali, et al., 2015;Bello Lara, 2015;Saleh Al-Subhi, et al., 2018;Vasantha, et al., 2018;Cacpata Calle, et al., 2020). ...
In Ecuador the teaching of dentistry lacks organization, planning or a regulation that regulates the training of professionals in the stomatological area. Academic research is scarce and the regularization of the mesh is a utopia. Academic mobility is diminished. In addition, updating curricular plans presents a real risk in a profession whose progress in materials occurs on a daily basis. This article aims to review the characteristics of the teaching of the profession in Ecuador and raises considerations that allow reflection and change in order to improve the training process of this profession. The educational policies of Ecuadorian higher education draw guidelines based on the social participation of its graduates, committed to a model of society that dimensions the subject and reconfigures the position of capital as an excluding conditioner of the rights of Good Living.
... Describen la fortaleza de la relación mediante el empleo de valores difusos. Permiten expresar las relaciones causales entre variables, donde a cada arista se le asocia un peso en el conjunto (Leyva Vázquez, et al., 2013b), donde 0 significa que no hay relación causal entre las variables, -1 significa que la relación causal es inversa (si una variable aumenta la otra disminuye y viceversa), y 1 significa que existe una relación causal directa (ambas variables aumentan o ambas disminuyen) (Axelrod, 2015). ...
Every company should have an organizational structure that allows defining and carrying out a correct distribution of employees and their functions. There is a tool known as the "Octagon" Anthropological Model of Organizational Functioning for knowledge management. The objective of this research is to apply this method in a small textile production company. Also taking into account that the behavior of employees has great consequences for the functioning of the organization, affecting various factors such as productivity, satisfaction and adaptation of the organization. A key element in the research process was conducting a survey of its workers to determine their level of satisfaction in regards to the management styles used by their leaders. Aiming to contribute to the proper development of this company, an analysis of the main factors that can intervene in the improvement of productivity was carried out, and thus help the company to provide services of adequate quality, capable of satisfying the needs of its customers. The information was processed using the Iadov and Fuzzy Cognitive Map methods.
... Enfin, la littérature a fourni, via les approches originales, une vision complexe des événements conduisant à une approche totalement nouvelle des crises et de la gestion à mettre en place. Notre article s'appuiera sur la théorie de la gestion du changement, Autissier & Moutot (2003), et la théorie des cartes cognitives Axelrod (1976), Novak, (1977, 1983, 2010. Nous enrichirons cet ancrage avec les théories suivantes : la théorie de la complexité telle que développée dans l'analyse des crises par Gilpin & Murphy (2008) et la théorie des fractales développée par Mandelbrot (1995). ...
La nature des crises nous conduit à proposer une conception de la résilience basée sur l’adaptation à la complexité des organisations. La capacité de disposer d’une vision centralisée et complexe de la gestion de crise et d’être en mesure de la déployer dans les différents organes de l’organisation est un levier fort pour augmenter la résilience d’une entreprise. À travers l’étude d’une monographie de la multinationale française Michelin, nous montrons que cette homogénéité est cruciale pour faire face de manière appropriée à une crise multicouches. Les organisations étant amenées à évoluer en mode dégradé, se reposer sur des fondamentaux tout en conservant une grande flexibilité est une garantie de survie. Notre recherche prouve qu’une telle organisation peut être mise en œuvre au niveau de la région, du pays mais aussi de l’usine.
... Una revisión de la bibliografía y la consulta a varios autores (Axelrod, 1976;Smarandache, 2005;Salmeron & Smarandache, 2010;Stach, 2010;Ali, et al., 2015;Menéndez Vera, et al., 2016) , permitió conocer que la modelación causal mediante Mapas Cognitivos Difusos (MCD), resulta apropiado para este fenómeno. ...
Today, young people and adolescents face great challenges such as violence, environmental degradation, diseases like COVID-19, discrimination, and poverty. This compromises a child's ability to function in this increasingly complex world and can lead to juvenile delinquency. Due to the increase in Ecuadorian statistics, it was decided to specify this issue as a social problem. Therefore, it is defined as an objective of the work: to analyze the forms of prevention of juvenile delinquency through the application of Diffuse Cognitive Maps. The hypothesis is that if the best method for the prevention of juvenile delinquency is determined, action strategies can be determined to mitigate the social phenomenon, contributing to the policy of good living, a constitutional right of Ecuadorians.
... Nevertheless, a representative technique that could be selected as the best method has not yet been identified (Fernández-Delgado et al. 2014). One of the most promising solutions for classifying data sets is to apply Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs), which are extensions of cognitive maps that aim to model complex chains of casual relationships maps (Axelrod 1976;Eden 1988;Tolman 1948). Although FCMs are not as wellknown as other methods (Papakostas et al. 2008;Papakostas et al. 2012), they have been successfully applied as a classification tool in different fields, e.g. in medicine (Kannappan et al. 2011; or information technology (Büyüközkan and Vardaloğlu 2012). ...
Previous statistical maritime accident studies are focused on identifying human factors. However, the previous studies were not capable of modelling the complex interrelations that exist between these factors. As accidents are complex processes, researchers fail to agree on the contribution of each human factor. Therefore, in this research study, a new Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)-based technique known as MALFCMs has been introduced and applied. Its novelty is the application of FCM concepts to model the relationships of accident contributors by combining historic accident data with expert opinion. Our approach is capable of integrating information obtained from real occurrences, therefore, the results can be considered more objective. Thus, in this paper, MALFCMs was applied to grounding/stranding accidents in general-cargo vessels, revealing that ‘unprofessional behavior’, ‘lack of training’, and ‘inadequate leadership and supervision’ are the most critical factors, with a normalised importance weighting of 13.25%, 13.24%, and 13.24% respectively.
... Bilişsel Haritalama kavramı, ilk kez hayvanların ve insanların çevrelerini yapılandırma yollarını gösteren düşünsel modeller olarak "Fareler ve İnsanlarda Bilişsel Haritalar" makalesi ile Tolman (1948) tarafından ortaya atılmıştır. Yöntem daha sonra Axelrod (1976) ve Hart (1977) tarafından siyasal analiz ve karar vermede kullanılmıştır. Yöntemin diğer kullanım alanları; oyun teorisi (Klein ve Cooper,1982), karar verme (Zhang vd.,1989), iş süreçlerinin dizaynı (Kwahk ve Kim,1999), bilgi yönetimi (Noh vd.,2000), web sitesi tasarımı (Lee ve Lee,2003), risk yönetimi (Al-Shehab vd.,2005), yeni ürün geliştirme (Carbonara ve Scozzi,2006), proje yönetimi (Edkins vd.,2007) ve stratejik yönetim (Farsari vd.,2011) olarak sıralanabilir. ...
Bu çalışmada, mobilya sektöründeki kronik sorunsalların kümelendiği merkezi
değerler bulunarak, bu değerler üzerinden çözüm stratejileri geliştirilecektir.
Bilişsel Haritalama Yöntemi ile yapılan analiz neticesinde, Türkiye’de Mobilya
Sektörü Gelişim (MOSEGE) Planı ana hatları ile önerilecektir. Özelikle model
üzerinden stratejiler üretme yönü ile özgünlük düzeyi yüksek olan bu
araştırmanın, mobilya sektörü üzerine farkındalığı arttırma ve ileri planlama
çalışmalarının yaygınlaşması hususlarında katkılar sağlaması beklenmektedir
... One of the initial policy-making models was described by Axelrod (1976), focusing on the causal analysis used by an individual to evaluate complex policy alternatives. The multiplicity of dimensions in a coupled transport-public space system imposes difficulties to determining clear causations by one individual, thus an integrated analysis approach involving scientists, policy-makers and the public is needed. ...
Urban transport infrastructure can result in the physical, psychological and environmental separation of neighborhoods, public spaces and pedestrian networks, leading to negative impacts on citizens’ daily commutes, social activities and the quality of the ecosystem. An integrated design of transport infrastructure and public space is beneficial for mediating these negative impacts. In this paper, we propose an integrated methodology, which combines urban design, computational scenario evaluation and decision-making processes, based on a conceptual model of human and ecological needs-driven planning. To evaluate the impacts of the road network and public space design on individual outdoor activities, travel behavior and air pollution, an agent-based model is demonstrated. This model is then applied to a case study in Beijing, leading to hourly traffic volume maps and car-related air pollution heat maps of a baseline road network-public space design.
... Interpretations may include assumptions, knowledge, and expectations expressed symbolically through language, visual images, metaphors, and stories that represent subjective data, and they act as a tool to facilitate decision making, problem solving, and negotiating within the context of organizational intervention (Cossette & Audet, 1992). Perceptions and interpretations have been linked with cognitive frames, which in their turn have been shown to be related to managers' performance (Jenkins & Johnson, 1997;Laukkanen, 1994), decision making (Axelrod, 1976), performance appraisal (Gioia, Donnellon, & Sims, 1989), strategic behaviour (Dutton & Jackson, 1987), strategy formulation (Hodgkinson & Johnson, 1994), exercise of power (Bartunek & Ringuest, 1989), leadership (Lord & Maher, 1991), and organizational performance (Thomas, Clark, & Gioia, 1993). Some HR practices have been studied from the perceptual point of view. ...
Research has shown that employees' innovative work behaviour is important for the competitive advantage of organizations. However, the question of how this innovative work behaviour can be stimulated remains unanswered. The purpose of this paper is to test empirically the effect of perceptions of four high-commitment HR practices on three dimensions of innovative work behaviour by production workers. Disentangling three dimensions of innovative work behaviour makes it conceptually possible to determine how perceived HRM can stimulate three different behavioural types linked to idea generation, idea championing, and idea application. The results of a survey among 328 workers in a Dutch manufacturing company show that four perceived HR practices (supportive supervision, training and development, information sharing, and compensation) have an effect on all three dimensions of innovative work behaviour. Overall, positively perceived supportive supervision was found to be the most beneficial practice for innovative work behaviour.
... Methods focusing on this utility are MICMAC (10,24) , ADVIAN (28) , and EXIT (29,37) . Cognitive maps (38) and fuzzy cognitive maps (39) also have similar analysis aims, although they are not typically identified as structural analysis approaches. ...
Expert informants can be used as the principal information source in the modeling of socio-techno-economic systems or problems to support planning, foresight and decision-making. Such modeling is theory-driven, grounded in expert judgment and understanding, and can be contrasted with data-driven modeling approaches. Several families of approaches exist to enable expert elicited systems modeling with varying input information requirements and analytical ambitions.
This paper proposes a novel modeling language and computational process, which combines aspects from various other approaches in an attempt to create a flexible and practical systems modeling approach based on expert elicitation. It is intended to have high fitness in modeling of systems that lack statistical data and exhibit low quantifiability of important system characteristics. AXIOM is positioned against Bayesian networks, cross-impact analysis, structural analysis, and morphological analysis. The modeling language and computational process are illustrated with a small example model. A software implementation is also presented.
... Estas funciones emplean un valor lambda (λ) para definirla pendiente [18]. De acuerdo al vector de entrada, el MCD convergerá a uno de los siguientes estados: punto fijo, ciclo límite o atractor caótico [19]. Los MCD han sido empleados para la toma de decisión en grupo debido a las facilidades que brinda para la agregación de modelos causales provenientes de múltiples expertos [20,21]. ...
In this work, elements related to mental models elicitation and analysis are addressed through causal models. Issues related to the need to include indeterminacy in causal relationships through neutrophic cognitive maps are discussed. A proposal for static analysis in neutrosophic cognitive maps is presented. The following activities are included in the proposal: Calculate, measures of centrality, Classify nodes, De-neutrosification, and Ranking nodes. As future works, the incorporation of new metrics of centrality in neutrosophic cognitive maps is proposed. The inclusion of scenario analysis to the proposal is another area of future work. Keywords: mental models, fuzzy cognitive maps, neutrosophic cognitive maps, static analysis in NCM 1 Introducción Los modelos mentales son representaciones internas de una realidad externa de cada individuo [1, 2]. Esto, quiere decir, que, de la misma realidad externa, cada individuo puede tener variadas representaciones internas. Estas representaciones son modeladas frecuentemente mediante representaciones causales en presencia de incer-tidumbre [3]. Los modelos causales son herramientas cada vez más empleadas, para la comprensión y análisis de los sistemas complejos [4, 5]. Para considerar la causalidad desde un punto de vista computacional, se requiere la obtención de modelos causales imprecisos que tomen en consideración la incertidumbre [6]. El razonamiento causal es útil en la toma de decisiones por ser natural y fácil de entender y ser convincente porque explica el por qué se llega a una conclusión particular [7]. Para considerar la causalidad desde un punto de vista computacional, se requiere la obtención de modelos causales imprecisos empleando grafos dirigidos [6]. En este sentido existen dos técnicas de soft computing para la inferencia causal: redes bayesianas (RB) y mapas cognitivos difusos (MCD) [8]. Los MCD. Estos proveen esquemas más realistas para la representación del conocimiento brindando la posibilidad de representar ciclos y modelar la vaguedad [9]. 2.Mapas Cognitivos Difusos (MCD) Actualmente ha surgido la necesidad de plantear la causalidad en términos de lógica difusa ofreciendo esta un marco adecuado para tratar con la causalidad imperfecta. La teoría de los conjuntos difusos o borrosos fue introducida por Za-deh[11] en el año 1965. Esta parte de la teoría clásica de conjuntos, añadiendo una función de pertenencia [12]. Una función de pertenencia o inclusión μ a (t) indica el grado n en que la variable t está incluida en el concepto repre-sentado por la etiqueta A [13]. Para la definición de estas funciones de pertenencia se utilizan convenientemente ciertas
... Estas funciones emplean un valor lambda (λ) [18]. De acuerdo al vector de entrada, el MCD convergerá a uno de los siguientes estados: punto fijo, ciclo límite o atractor caótico [19]. Los MCD han sido empleados para la toma de decisión en grupo debido a las facilidades que brinda para la agregación de modelos causales provenientes de múltiples expertos [20,21]. ...
The Sinos River Basin is one of the most contaminated water basin in Brazil which leads to tremendous efforts for its recovery through adequate integral management. The management of water quality through the analysis of the interrelations between the different factors could be difficult. . In this paper, the authors present Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Neutrosophic Cogntive Maps for a better choice of environmental management i by the Basin Management Committee of the Sino River. With this method it’s possible to use FCM/NCM to model the complex system of variables involved into the determination of water quality, according to the water quality index (WQI) .
... The evolution of social structures, understood as complex systems that form larger world system developmental processes, have been of interest to students of international relations since Axeldrod's early work on cognitive mind-maps (Axelrod, 1976) and further developed in his seminal work on the evolution of cooperative strategies (Axelrod, 1984(Axelrod, , 1997. A growing literature in the first two decades of the 21st century yields a substantial body of work that can be employed in other evolutionary system approaches. ...
As an interdisciplinary approach, evolutionary systems theory borrows from fields such as statistical physics, evolutionary biology as well as economics and others to build on their insights from studies of environments — as systems — and the behavior of actors within those environments — their agency. It provides a bridge between existing and divergent but related strings of research of particular systemic elements as a unifying macro-theory of our social and physical world, fusing multiple approaches into a common model. The unifying key is the focus on the behavior of agents (e.g., individuals; groups; cities; states; world systems) as it relates to the environment (both natural and social) in which these agents act and the feedback between behavior and environment. Evolutionary systems approaches can broadly be placed into two categories: (1) the biobehavioral and (2) the socialevolutionary approach to the study of international relations with the help of evolutionary theory. The point of evolutionary explanations is not to make the case that humans are incapable of making their own choices —far from it, learning and selection are critical elements of human agency in evolutionary models. Rather, evolutionary systems theory also includes in its models the structural capacity to make those choices, which derives from and depends on previous choices made, a process that is also bound by our biological evolution or alternatively by our cognitive limitations and available selection mechanisms, regardless of the relative complexity of human learning capacity.
... "Causality" is defined as "the relationship between something that happens or exists and the thing that causes it" [4]. Determining causal relations among variables is a challenging and much underlying assumptions that are implicit in a research project is to map them out through a process known as "cognitive mapping" [33][34][35][36][37]. Cognitive mapping has been used to understand the implicit assumptions and decisions made by policymakers in the past [38]. Cognitive maps give rise to different concept maps, which then are used to produce different causal graphs. ...
Determining what constitutes a causal relationship between two or more concepts, and how to infer causation, are fundamental concepts in statistics and all the sciences. Causation becomes especially difficult in the social sciences where there is a myriad of different factors that are not always easily observed or measured that directly or indirectly influence the dynamic relationships between independent variables and dependent variables. This paper proposes a procedure for helping researchers explicitly understand what their underlying assumptions are, what kind of data and methodology are needed to understand a given relationship, and how to develop explicit assumptions with clear alternatives, such that researchers can then apply a process of probabilistic elimination. The procedure borrows from Pearl’s concept of “causal diagrams” and concept mapping to create a repeatable, step-by-step process for systematically researching complex relationships and, more generally, complex systems. The significance of this methodology is that it can help researchers determine what is more probably accurate and what is less probably accurate in a comprehensive fashion for complex phenomena. This can help resolve many of our current and future political and policy debates by eliminating that which has no evidence in support of it, and that which has evidence against it, from the pool of what can be permitted in research and debates. By defining and streamlining a process for inferring truth in a way that is graspable by human cognition, we can begin to have more productive and effective discussions around political and policy questions.
... Estas funciones emplean un valor lambda (λ) para definirla pendiente [18]. De acuerdo al vector de entrada, el MCD convergerá a uno de los siguientes estados: punto fijo, ciclo límite o atractor caótico [19]. Los MCD han sido empleados para la toma de decisión en grupo debido a las facilidades que brinda para la agregación de modelos causales provenientes de múltiples expertos [20,21]. ...
In this work, elements related to mental models elicitation and analysis are addressed through causal models. Issues related to the need to include indeterminacy in causal relationships through neutrophic cognitive maps are discussed. A proposal for static analysis in neutrosophic cognitive maps is presented. The following activities are included in the proposal: Calculate, measures of centrality, Classify nodes, De-neutrosification, and Ranking nodes. As future works, the incorporation of new metrics of centrality in neutrosophic cognitive maps is proposed. The inclusion of scenario analysis to the proposal is another area of future work.
... Estas funciones emplean un valor lambda (λ) para definirla pendiente [18]. De acuerdo al vector de entrada, el MCD convergerá a uno de los siguientes estados: punto fijo, ciclo límite o atractor caótico [19]. ...
In this work, elements related to mental models elicitation and analysis are addressed through causal models. Issues related to the need to include indeterminacy in causal relationships through neutrophic cognitive maps are discussed. A proposal for static analysis in neutrosophic cognitive maps is presented. The following activities are included in the proposal: Calculate, measures of centrality, Classify nodes, De-neutrosification, and Ranking nodes. As future works, the incorporation of new metrics of centrality in neutrosophic cognitive maps is proposed. The inclusion of scenario analysis to the proposal is another area of future work.
... The policy-making process evolved gradually which was initially described by Axelrod (1976), focusing on an individual's causal assertions. In the democratic society, however, policy-making shifts to an integrated analysis approach involving scientists, policy-makers and the public (Zellner 2008). ...
Urban transport infrastructure can result in the physical, psychological and environmental separation of neighborhoods, public spaces and pedestrian network, leading to negative impacts on citizens’ daily commutes, social activities and the quality of ecosystem. An integrated design of transport infrastructure and public space is beneficial for mediating these negative impacts. In this paper, we propose an integrated methodology, which combines urban design, computational scenario evaluation and decision-making processes, based on a conceptual model of human-ecology needs driven planning. To evaluate the impacts of road network and public space design on individual outdoor activities, travel behavior and air pollution, an agent-based model is demonstrated. This model is then applied to a case study in Beijing, leading to hourly traffic volume maps and car-related air pollution heat maps of a baseline road network-public space design.
... The policy-making process evolved gradually which was initially described by Axelrod (1976), focusing on an individual's causal assertions. In the democratic society, however, policy-making shifts to an integrated analysis approach involving scientists, policy-makers and the public (Zellner 2008). ...
Urban transport infrastructure can result in the physical, psychological and environmental separation of neighborhoods, public space and pedestrian network, leading to negative impacts on citizens' daily commutes, social activities and health. In this paper, we simulate the impacts of road network design on individual activity patterns, travel mode choices and air pollution using an agent-based model. The simulation model is applied to a case study in Beijing and the air pollution heat maps are produced for road network designs comparing with the real-time pollution data. This illustrates the potential value of such simulation models which generate activities for a given urban layout and transport network, and shows how human behavior can impact air quality.
Climate change policy stands out as a highly salient issue in European and in American public opinion. This article contends that a significant transatlantic consensus supports multilateral action on climate change. Leveraging a broad review of survey data in our time series, the analysis identifies a clear pattern of increasing agreement in public opinion. Yet progress in joint transatlantic climate change action has been rather slow and fragmented. To explain this puzzle, we connect these findings to pitfalls for transatlantic cooperation by weighing partisan polarization and regional differences in the U.S. and country variations in the EU as plausible hurdles to policy consistency. We argue that, beneath broader trends in shared concerns, roadblocks on the national level inhibit the implementation of coherent and effective transatlantic climate change policies.
The article aims to accelerate strategic meetings in the country’s regional governments. The fuzzy cognitive modelling and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM), along with the author’s convergent methodology, have helped to make this goal achievable. The convergent methodology suggests a unique approach for structuring information generated during the strategic meeting by applying the inverse problem-solving method to the fuzzy cognitive modelling to transform the divergent strategic discussion into a convergent one and make a strategic meeting sustainable and purposeful. The FCM helps to represent the non-formalisable cognitive semantics of computer models. The relevant big data analysis was used to justify fuzzy cognitive models and create them automatically. A high level of accuracy was achieved for verifying models; however, the accuracy of the latter process needed to be higher. The practical objective was to speed up the collective creation of a strategy for youth policy development for one of the country’s regions. Three dozen participants, including remote experts and the youth policy department authorities, took part in the strategic meeting. It took five hours to collective building the draft of the strategy.KeywordsArtificial intelligenceCognitive modellingFuzzy cognitive mapsConvergent methodologyYouth policy strategy
Brand is one of the most important parts of businesses and many elements are brought together to create a brand. In order for customers to prefer brands, businesses need to consider both customer general and specific expectations, focus on the right points and offer the most appropriate solution to customers because customers consider many factors when making their brand choices. The purpose of this study is to determine which areas the companies operating in the telecommunications sector should focus on according to customer expectations and criteria for brand preference by using the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) method. Customer expectations and criteria are obtained as a result of literature research. After the data are prepared, the most effective criteria are determined with the FCM method. In this study, it is determined that which areas the companies operating in the telecommunications sector should focus on according to customer expectations and criteria. FCM is very useful to decide in complex situations like this. The greatest limitation of this study is determining the customer criteria for brand preference. This study shows that FCM can be very useful to determine the most crucial customer expectations for telecommunications sector. In addition, FCM can be used in other sectors where customer expectations are very important and decisive, to prioritize customer brand preference criteria and to guide businesses.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is an important emerging technology that enables (usually) pervasive ubiquitous devices to connect to the Internet. Medical and Healthcare Internet of Things (MHIoT) represents one of the application areas for IoT that has revolutionized the healthcare sector. In this study, a systematized literature review on the adoption of MHIoT for diabetes management is done to investigate the application of IoT in the monitoring of diabetes, key challenges, what has been done, in which context, and the research gap using Denyer and Transfield’s systematic literature review methodology. The key findings reveal that developing nations are lagging despite the greater benefits of MHIoT in such resource-constrained contexts. The findings suggest that infrastructure costs, security, and privacy issues are most important in the adoption of MHIoT for diabetes management. The opportunities presented by MHIoT surpass the challenges as healthcare costs are reduced in a resource-constrained context. Further research in infrastructural needs and privacy concerns is needed to take full advantage of these benefits and address the challenges.KeywordsHealth careDeveloping countriesDeveloped countriesSensorsGlucoseBlood sugarActuatorsRemote health monitoring
A new approach to solving the problem of predicting the performance of a university as a weakly structured system based on an aggregated model, including an ensemble of gray fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM), is proposed. A combination of cognitive modeling, interval mathematics, and causal algebra was used to construct the gray FCM. Aggregation of gray FCM models gives a synergistic effect, in which the disadvantages of some models are compensated by the advantages of other models. The use of the interval approach in describing the relationships between the concepts made it possible to reduce the uncertainty of expert assessments of the strength of the relationship between the concepts of the cognitive map, as well as to increase the efficiency of the forecasting process. The model based on the ensemble of gray FCMs provided an increase in the reliability of the solution using several options for formalizing the knowledge and experience of experts. The novelty of the approach is determined by the use in the construction of a fuzzy cognitive map of special constructions in the form of interval estimates to assess the strength of connections between concepts, providing an adequate cognitive model, as well as the use of a predictive ensemble of gray FCMs, based on which a more accurate result was obtained in comparison with a single FCM and existing ones. Models of classic FCM. The proposed approach provided, under the given constraints, obtaining the most acceptable scenario for planning the increment of the basic indicators of the university's activity to target values by identifying the latent factors affecting them and calculating the aggregate of impulse influences on latent factors to ensure the achievement of the goal.KeywordsScenario predictionGray fuzzy cognitive mapInterval fuzzy set
Por la pandemia cambió la modalidad de estudio universitario, y la virtualidad trajo consigo problemas de adaptación, que generó en estrés académico, y la limitada actividad física por las restricciones complementó negativamente la formación profesional de los estudiantes. Durante los momentos tan tensos que vive el mundo entero, es necesario tomar medidas urgentes para controlar y bajar los altos niveles de estrés con el apoyo sicológico, y desarrollar actividades físicas, ya sea desde el hogar o al aire libre que permite librar a los estudiantes de todas las tenciones que ejerce la vida estudiantil desde la modalidad virtual así como el no poder interactuar físicamente con el resto del claustros ni entre ellos mismos.
The hydrogeological environment of the Saharan North East region of Tindouf is of utmost interest, particularly in agriculture. In fact, exploitation and exploration processes must be analysed to ensure sufficient water production. This study demonstrates the value of spatial processing and exploitation of geoelectric and geological data in the study area and facilitates interpretation. The results of the electrical survey and the spatial analysis of the data allowed us to design a complete model that met the needs of hydrogeology. The applied methodology consists in breaking down our subject into three (3) classes of entities: geomatics, geophysics and hydrogeology. Synthetic mapping based on continuity is the result of studying two sites (Hassi Naga and Hassi Khebi) for geological analysis. Knowing that the electrical resistivity is between 0 and 3000 Ohm-meter, we were able to construct thematic maps showing the spatial distribution of the facies and the probable positions of the boreholes. The study provided with a geo-spatial model highlighting the impact of measurements in hydrogeology of the area considered that was called SIHE (Information System for Environmental Hydrogeology).
Accountability is a characteristic of being a senior civil servant. Calls for them to be more accountable make assumptions about the causal mechanisms that link it to behaviour, and about how these officials experience and manage multiple accountability relationships. Despite the importance of accountability within the public sector there is limited investigation into these assumptions, or how it feels to be accountable from the manager’s perspective. My research uses in-depth interviews with 47 senior officials to investigate their experience of being accountable. The narrative around the problems affecting major public projects in the UK includes the demand for increased accountability of their Senior Responsible Owners (SROs). Recent changes to the Osmotherly Rules, which provide guidance for civil servants giving evidence to parliamentary committees, have created a new accountability mechanism for the SRO. They are now expected to account personally to Parliament for the implementation of their project. The interviews provide an opportunity to investigate how this group of public managers feel about being accountable, how they manage multiple relationships, and their experience of this new mechanism. The analysis shows that they prioritise their account giving activity by assessing the salience of account holders. I propose a typology to illustrate their management of their accountability environment. I argue that being made accountable to Parliament is perceived to have reputational risk for SROs but has not made significant changes to how they feel about being held accountable for their projects. However, it may have a positive impact because of the personal authority it gives them to influence the relationships with their most salient account holders. I show that to understand the effect of adding a new mechanism to a complex environment, it is essential to appreciate how it is perceived by those it is intended to hold accountable.
Cet article a été accepté par la revue Management International. Il sera prochainement publié. Cette version est la version preprint.
Addressing safety is considered a priority starting from the design stage of any vessel until end-of-life. However, despite all safety measures developed, accidents are still occurring. This is a consequence of the complex nature of shipping accidents where too many factors are involved including human factors. Therefore, there is a need for a practical method, which can identify the importance weightings for each contributing factor involved in accidents. As a result, by identifying the importance weightings for each factor, risk assessments can be informed, and risk control options can be developed and implemented more effectively. To this end, Marine Accident Learning with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (MALFCM) approach incorporated with Bayesian networks (BNs) is suggested and applied in this study. The MALFCM approach is based on the concept and principles of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to represent the interrelations amongst accident contributor factors. Thus, MALFCM allows identifying the importance weightings for each factor involved in an accident, which can serve as prior failure probabilities within BNs. Hence, in this study, a specific accident will be investigated with the proposed MALFCM approach.
Aims:
Describe the implementation and uses of fuzzy cognitive mapping as a constructive method for meeting the unique and rapidly evolving needs of nursing inquiry and practice.
Design:
Discussion paper.
Data sources:
Drawing on published scholarship of cognitive mapping from the fields of ecological management, information technology, economics, organizational behavior and health development, we consider how fuzzy cognitive mapping can contribute to contemporary challenges and aspirations of nursing research.
Implications for nursing:
Fuzzy cognitive mapping can generate theory, describe knowledge systems in comparable terms and inform questionnaire design and dialogue. It can help build participant-researcher partnerships, elevate marginalized voices and facilitate intercultural dialogue. As a relatively culturally safe and foundational approach in participatory research, we suggest fuzzy cognitive mapping should be used in settings of transcultural nursing, patient engagement, person and family centered care and research with marginalized populations. Fuzzy cognitive mapping is amenable to rigorous analysis and simultaneously allows for greater participation of stakeholders.
Conclusion:
In highly complex healthcare contexts, fuzzy cognitive mapping can act as a common language for defining challenges and articulating solutions identified within the nursing discipline.
Impact:
There is a need to reconcile diverse sources of knowledge to meeting the needs of nursing inquiry. Fuzzy cognitive mapping can generate theory, describe knowledge systems, facilitate dialogue and support questionnaire design. In its capacity to engage multiple perspectives in defining problems and identifying solutions, fuzzy cognitive mapping can contribute to advancing nursing research and practice. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Résumé : À l’heure où on vit la 6ème crise de la biodiversité, tous les pays signataires de la Convention sur la diversité biologique s’engagent à mettre en place des outils pour préserver leur patrimoine naturel. Les aires protégées représentent un des outils privilégiés pour la conservation de la biodiversité. Elles peuvent avoir des effets positifs et négatifs sur les populations riveraines ; parfois elles sont une source de conflits entre ces populations et les gestionnaires. Cette thèse de doctorat propose une approche interdisciplinaire pour analyser comment la réconciliation des enjeux de conservation de la biodiversité et de développement, dans et autour de la forêt du Karthala aux Comores, peut être appréhendée à partir des perceptions et des expériences des acteurs. Elle vise plus précisément à répondre à la question suivante : comment la notion d’aire protégée, qui est un concept occidental porté par des acteurs institutionnels internationaux aux Comores, entre ou non en conflit avec les perceptions des acteurs des territoires concernés ? Plusieurs méthodes complémentaires ont été utilisées. Nous mettons d’abord en lumière les représentations des composantes de la forêt et les perceptions des différents acteurs sur le projet de mise en protection. Ces perceptions sont comparées et discutées pour évaluer leur pertinence dans la prise de décisions conciliant objectifs de conservation et de développement du territoire. Nous avons ensuite mis en évidence la caractérisation des expériences de nature des riverains en explorant la relation humain-nature. Enfin, nous proposons une analyse intégrée des relation humains-forêt et du système socio-écologique qu’il représente à travers les représentations des riverains, les expériences de nature, l’importance déclarée de l’utilisation des ressources et l’identité environnementale. Toutes ces approches relativement nouvelles dans les pays du Sud permettent une discussion approfondie et importante pour discuter le processus de mise en place du Parc national du Karthala.
This chapter presents the research design, operationalization of key concepts, and the main methods of analysis, combining large-n quantitative analysis with in-depth qualitative analysis of key cases to explore the explanatory framework of morality policy attention and change in the religious world. The study selects two typical morality policies (prostitution policy and same-sex marriage) and four representative countries of the religious world (Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain) and examines them for a period of twenty years (1994–2014). The chapter presents a novel and comprehensive dataset (PoliMoral) that includes newly collected data on morality policy attention, party preferences on morality issues (including intra- and inter-party conflict levels), and morality policy change data. These variables persuade not only with thorough operationalizations but also with innovative data-collection techniques.
A Cognitive map is a graphical semantic model that represents influences between concepts. A cognitive map is easy to design and use, but the only query a user can make on it is to infer the propagated influence from a concept to another. This paper (This work is made in the context of “Analyse Cognitive de Savoirs”, a computer science project, granted by French region Pays de la Loire.) proposes CMQL, a general query language for cognitive maps. This language provides a way to query the different items of the model and not only the propagated influence. The language is declarative and is inspired of the domain relational calculus.
"Neutrosophic Computing and Machine Learning" (NCML) es una revista académica que ha sido creada para publicaciones de estudios avanzados en neutrosofía, conjunto neutrosófico, lógica neutrosófica, probabilidad neutrosófica, estadística neutrosófica, enfoques neutrosóficos para el aprendizaje automático, etc. y sus aplicaciones en cualquier campo.
Todos los trabajos presentados deben ser profesionales, con un buen uso del idioma inglés o español, que contengan una breve reseña de un problema y los resultados obtenidos.
La neutrosofía es una nueva rama de la filosofía la cual estudia el origen, naturaleza y alcance de las neutralidades, así como sus interacciones con diferentes espectros ideacionales. La teoría considera que cualquier noción o idea junto a su opuesto o negación y el espectro de neutralidades entre ellos(es decir nociones o idea que no soportan a ni a ni a <antiA)). Las ideas y juntas son nombradas .
La neutrosofía es una generalización de la dialéctica de Hegel (Esta última es basada en y solamente).
De acuerdo a esta teoría toda idea tiende a ser neutralizada y balanceada por y -como un estado de equilibrio.
En su forma clásica , , son disjuntos dos por dos. Pero como en varios casos los límites entre conceptos son vagas a imprecisas, es posi-ble que , , (y por supues-to) tengan partes comunes dos por dos también, o incluso los tres a la vez.
Los conjunto neutrosóficos y la lógica neutrosófica son generalizaciones de los conjuntos difusos de la lógica difusa respectivamente (y especialmente de los conjuntos intuicionista y respectivamente de la lógica difusa intuicionista). En la lógica neutrosófica cada proposición tiene un grado de veracidad (T), un grado de indeterminación (I) y un grado de falsedad (F) donde T, I, F son subconjuntos estándar o no estándar de] -0, 1+ [,
La Probabilidad Neutrosófica es una generalización de las probabilidades clásicas e imprecisas.
La estadística neutrosófica es una generalización de la estadísticas clásicas e imprecisas.
Lo que distingue a la neutrosofía de otros campos es el , que no significa ni ni .
, el cual por supuesto depende de , puede ser indeterminación, neutralidad, empate en un juego, desconocimiento, contradicción, ignorancia, imprecisión, etc.
Todos los envíos deben realizarse con el siguiente formato: http://fs.gallup.unm.edu/NCML/NCML-paper-template.doc
http://fs.gallup.unm.edu/ebooks-other formats.htm
Para poner a consideración un trabajo, envíe el ar-chivo por correo electrónico a los editores en jefe. Para solicitar problemas impresos, póngase en contacto con los editores. Esta revista es de acceso abierto, no co-mercial, edición académica. Es impreso para donacio-nes privadas.
Más información sobre la neutrosofía, así como un conjunto de libros y materiales en distintos idiomas se encuentran libremente disponibles en el sitio de la UNM: http://fs.gallup.unm.edu/neutrosophy.htm
La página principal de esta revista puede ser accedida en: http://fs.gallup.unm.edu/NCML/
Kaum ein Tag vergeht, an dem Donald Trump nicht twittert. Er bedient nicht nur seinen persönlichen Account @realDonaldTrump, sondern bespielt seit Übernahme der Amtsgeschäfte von seinem Vorgänger Barack Obama auch den offiziellen Twitter Account des US-Präsidenten @POTUS. Der Account @realDonaldTrump scheint mit 36,5 Mio. Followern jedoch deutlich interessanter zu sein als POTUS, der es auf lediglich 20 Mio.
Energy is an increasingly politicised commodity which, however, retains its particular technical and economic characteristics, thus complicating the work of foreign policy-makers. The article draws on the contribution of the cognitive approach to the analysis of foreign policy-making and investigates the energy–foreign policy nexus in the EU and the US through the lens of the different cognitive structures used by actors to understand the world energy scenery. In this conceptual framework, it examines how the energy–foreign policy linkage has evolved in the EU and the US, to what extent energy is still perceived as a useful instrument serving foreign policy objectives, and in reverse, how far energy policy objectives are integrated in foreign policy-making. Through this comparative exercise, it concludes by identifying differences and potential patterns of convergence between the EU and the US.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.