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Dust-obscured star formation and AGN fuelling in hierarchical models of galaxy evolution

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A large fraction of the luminous distant submm-wave galaxies recently detected using SCUBA on the JCMT appear to be associated with interacting optical counterparts. We investigate these systems using a simple hierarchical clustering model of galaxy evolution, in which the large luminosity of the SCUBA galaxies is assumed to be generated at the epoch of galaxy mergers in a burst of either star formation activity or the fuelling of an active galactic nucleus (AGN). The models are well constrained by the observed spectrum of the FIR/submm background radiation and the 60-micron counts of low-z IRAS galaxies. The ratio between the total amount of energy released during mergers and the mass of dark matter involved must increase sharply with z at z<1, and then decrease at higher z, independent of the fraction of the luminosity of mergers that is produced by starbursts and AGN. One additional parameter - the reciprocal of the product of the duration of the enhanced luminosity produced by the merger and the fraction of mergers that induce an enhanced luminosity, which we call the activity parameter - is introduced, to allow the relationship between merging dark matter haloes and the observed counts of distant dusty galaxies to be investigated. The observed counts can only be reproduced if the activity parameter is greater by a factor of about 5 and 100 at redshifts of 1 and 3 respectively, compared with the present epoch. Hence, if mergers account for the SCUBA galaxies, then the merger process must have been much more violent at high redshifts. We discuss the counts of galaxies and the intensity of background radiation in the optical/near-IR wavebands in the context of these hierarchical models, and thus investigate the relationship between the populations of SCUBA and Lyman-break galaxies. Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures, in press at MNRAS. Final proof version
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arXiv:astro-ph/9906311v2 1 Sep 1999
Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 000, 000–000 (0000) Printed 1 February 2008 (MN L
A
T
E
X style file v1.4)
Dust-obscured star formation and AGN fuelling in
hierarchical models of galaxy evolution
A. W. Blain,
1,2
Allon Jameson,
1
Ian Smail,
3
M. S. Longair,
1
J.-P. Kneib
2
and R. J. Ivison
4
1
Cavendish Laboratory, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0HE, UK.
2
Observatoire Midi-Pyr´en´ees, 14 Avenue E. Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France.
3
Department of Physics, University of Durham, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
4
Department of Physics & Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
1 February 2008
ABSTRACT
A large fraction of the luminous distant submillimetre-wave galaxies recently detected
using the Submillimetre Common- Use r Bolometer Array (SCUBA) camera on the
James Clerk Ma xwell Telesc ope appear to be associated with interacting optical coun-
terparts. We investigate the nature of these systems using a simple hierarchical clus-
tering model of galaxy evolution, in which the large luminosity of the SCUBA galaxies
is assumed to be gener ated at the epoch of galaxy mergers in a burst of either star
formation activity or the fuelling of an active galactic nucleus (AGN). The models
are well constrained by the observed spectrum of the far- infrared/submillimetre-wave
background radiation and the 60-µm counts o f low-redshift IRAS galaxies. The ratio
between the total amount of energy released during mergers and the mass of dark
matter involved must increase sharply with redshift z at z
<
1, and then decrease
at greater redshifts. This result is independent of the fraction of the luminosity of
mergers that is produced by starbursts and AGN. One additional parameter the
reciprocal of the product of the duration of the enhanced luminosity produced by the
merger and the fraction of merger s tha t induce an enhanced luminosity, which we call
the activity parameter is introduced, to allow the relationship between merging dark
matter haloes and the observed counts of distant dusty galaxies to be investigated. The
observed counts can only be reproduced if the activity parameter is greater by a factor
of about 5 and 100 at redshifts of 1 and 3 respectively, as compared with the present
epoch. Hence, if merging galaxies account for the population of SCUBA galaxies, then
the merger process must have been much more viole nt at high redshifts. We discuss
the counts of gala xies and the intensity of background radiation in the optical/near-
infrared wavebands in the context of these hierarchical models, and thus investigate
the relationship between the populations of submillimetre-selected and Lyman-break
galaxies.
Key words: galaxies: evolution galaxies: formation cosmology: observations
cosmology: theory diffuse r adiation infrared: galaxies
1 INTRODUCTION
The history of star formation in dusty galaxies was recently
discussed by Blain et al. (1999c), who assumed that the dis-
tant galaxies recently detected using the 450/850-µm Su b-
millimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) cam-
era (Holland et al. 1999) were the high-redshift counterparts
of local ultraluminous IRAS galaxies. The global star for-
mation rate (SFR) in dust obscured galaxies was inferred to
be significantly greater than that of optically selected high-
redshift galaxies (Steidel et al. 1996a,b, 1999), subject to the
uncertain fraction of the luminosity of the submillimetre-
selected samples of galaxies ( Smail, Ivison & Blain 1997;
Barger et al. 1998; Hughes et al. 1998; Barger et al. 1999a;
Blain et al. 1999b; Eales et al. 1999) that is produced by
accretion processes in active galactic nuclei (AGN). A frac-
c
0000 RAS
2 A. W. Blain et al.
tion of at most 30 per cent, and more likely 10–20 per cent,
is suggested by both follow-up observations ( Frayer et al.
1998; Ivison et al. 1998; Smail et al. 1998; Barger et al.
1999b; Frayer et al. 1999; Lilly et al. 1999), and informa-
tion derived in other wavebands; see section 5.4 of Blain et
al. (1999c), Almaini, Lawrence & Boyle (1999) and Gunn
& Shanks (1999). Using a different app roach, in which the
high-redshift SCUBA population is decoupled from the lo-
cal infrared-luminous galaxies, Trentham, Blain & Goldader
(1999) were able to reconcile the SCUBA counts with a less
dramatic amount of obscured star-formation activity. Use
another empirical approach, Tan, Silk & Balland (1999) de-
rived results somewhere between the two. A summary of the
existing data on the history of star formation is presented
in Fig. 1.
Although well constrained, and in accord with the avail-
able observational data, the models in Blain et al. (1999c)
and Trentham et al. (1999) included few details of the phys-
ical origin of the large luminosity of SCUBA galaxies. Semi-
analytic models of hierarchical galaxy formation, in which
galaxies assemble by the merger of progressively larger sub-
units (Cole et al. 1994; Baugh et al. 1998; Kauffmann &
Charlot 1998; Somerville, Primack & Faber 1999) have been
used to account for a wide range of observations in the
optical and near-infrared wavebands, and have been ex-
tended into the far-infrared and submillimetre wavebands
by Gu iderdoni et al. (1998). These models involve a large
number of free parameters, and the interplay between them
can make it difficult to identify the most important physics
responsible for a p articular observation. In this paper we de-
velop a model of infrared-luminous galaxies in a simple ver-
sion of such a scenario (Blain & Longair 1993a,b; Jameson,
Longair & Blain 1999), which includes many fewer parame-
ters and hopefully makes the astrophysics more transparent.
We attempt to reproduce the SCUBA counts by invoking
bright dust-enshrouded bursts of either star formation ac-
tivity or AGN fuelling at the epochs of mergers.
Motivation for considering the SCUBA galaxies as lumi-
nous mergers is provided by both the optical identifications
of the Smail et al. (1998) sample, which appear to contain a
large fraction of interacting galaxies, and th e gas consump-
tion rate that is inferred from observations of CO emission of
two submillimetre-selected galaxies made using the Owens
Valley Millimeter Array (Frayer et al. 1998, 1999), which
cannot be sustained for more than a few 10
8
yr. Even the
faint and compact counterparts listed in Smail et al. (1998)
could be merging galaxies, b ut too faint to identify as such;
see th e simulations of the appearance of high-redshift merg-
ers in Bekki, Shioya & Tanaka (1999). If the SCUBA galaxies
are the high-redshift counterparts of the low-redshift ultra-
luminous infrared galaxies, which are predominantly merg-
ing systems, then this also offers support for modeling the
SCUBA galaxies as mergers. Using our simple model, we
emphasise the most important features and the underlying
physics of the evolution of submillimetre-selected galaxies
and their relationship to the population of quiescent galax-
ies.
In Section 2 we describe the details of the model, and
investigate the constraints imposed by the intensity of the
far-infrared and submillimetre-wave background radiation
and the counts of low-redshift IRAS galaxies. We discuss
the evolution of the luminosity density in the model and
compare the models with observations in the same way as
the evolving IRAS luminosity function models discussed by
Blain et al. (1999c). In Section 3 we discuss the predic-
tions in the context of source counts in the submillimetre
and far-infrared wavebands, and investigate whether the
SCUBA galaxies can easily be explained in an hierarchi-
cal picture of galaxy formation and evolution. In Section
4 the corresponding background radiation intensities and
galaxy counts in the near-infrared and optical wavebands
are discussed. In Section 5 we review the parameters we
have introduced to describe the models. We present our
main conclusions in Section 6. A value of Hubble’s constant
H
0
= 100h km s
1
Mpc
1
, with h = 0.5, a density parameter
0
= 1 and a cosmological constant
Λ
= 0 are assumed.
2 AN ANALYTIC HIERARCHICAL PICTURE
The evolution of galaxy-scale structures under gravity ac-
cording to hierarchical clustering models can be analysed
using the Press–Schechter formalism (Press & Schechter
1974), which describes the time-d epen dent mass spectrum of
bound objects. The analytic results of the Press–Schechter
formalism are in quite acceptable agreement with those of
N-body simulations (Brainerd & Villumsen 1992). The for-
malism can be extended to yield a very straightforward semi-
analytic merger rate, under the single assumption that the
process of halo mergers is independent of mass (Blain &
Longair 1993a,b).
2.1 The Press–Schechter Formalism
According to the Press–Schechter prescription, the mass
spectrum of bound objects with masses between M and
M + dM is
N
PS
(M, z) =
¯ρ
π
γ
M
2
M
M
γ/2
exp
h
M
M
γ
i
, (1)
in which ¯ρ is the smoothed comoving density of the Uni-
verse, d ominated by dark matter, γ = (3 + n)/3, where n
is the power-law index of primordial density fluctuations,
and M
(z) is a parameter which d escribes the evolution of
density fluctuations as a function of redshift z:
M
(z) = M
(0)
δ(z)
δ(0)
2
. (2)
δ(z) is the function describing the growth of perturbations
in a general cosmology, and is derived from the equation,
¨
δ + 2
˙
R
R
˙
δ
4πG¯ρ
R
3
δ = 0, (3)
in which R is the scalefactor of the Universe. In an Ein-
stein de-Sitter model, t he growing mode has δ (1 + z)
1
.
M
(0) is the typical mass of bound objects at z = 0. In-
homogeneities do not grow if γ 0, that is if n 3.
For scale-invariant density fluctuations, n = 1 or γ = 4/3.
This is close to the value observed on the largest scales from
the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR). Ob-
servations of large-scale structure indicate that n 1.5,
or γ 1/2, on t he smallest scales (Peacock & Dodd s 1994),
which can be associated with the transfer function between
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
Hierarchical star formation/AGN fuelling 3
Figure 1. The SFR as a function of redshift, τ
SFR
(z), as inferred from ultraviolet/optical/near-infrared observations, in order
of increasing redshift, by Gallego et al. (1996; fil led triangle), Gronwall (1999; thin diagonal cross), Treyer et al. (1998; open
triangle), Tresse & Maddox (1998; empty circle), Lilly et al. (1996; filled stars), C owie, Songaila & Barger (1999; small filled
circles); Glazebrook et al. (1999; bent square at z = 0.9), Connolly et al. (1997; filled squares), Yan et al. (1999; e mpty lozenge),
Madau et al. (1996; large filled circles), and Pettini et al. (1998a,b; empty squares). Flores et al. (1999; empty stars) and Pettini
et al. (1998a,b) have corrected the Lilly et al. and Madau et al. results respectively for observed dust extinction. The high-redshift
points are derived from analyses of the Hubble Deep Field (HDF). A recent ground-based survey of a wider area by Steidel et al.
(1999) increased the estimated high-redshift SFR, as shown by the thick diagonal crosses. No extinction correction is applied to
these points; Steidel et al. (1999) estimate that the extinction-corrected SFR is greater by a factor of about 5. Other analyses of the
HDF data by Sawicki, Lin & Yee (1997) and Pascarelle, Lanzetta & Fern´andez-Soto (1998) yielded s imilar results. Cowie, Songaila
& Barger (1999) have argued recently that the low-redshift SFR increases more gradually, as (1 + z)
γ
with γ 1.5, in contrast
with the usual γ 4 (Lilly et al. 1996). At longer wavelengths, SFRs have been derived from mid-infrared observations by Flores
et al. (1999) and from submillimetre-wave observations by Blain et al. (1999c; lines) and Hughes et al. (1998; empty circle wi th
upward pointing arrow). Cram (1998) investigated the star-formation history at z
<
1 using radio observations, deriving a rate
of 2.5 × 10
2
M
yr
1
Mpc
3
at z = 0, which increases by an order of magnitude at z 1. The submillimetre-based Gaussian
and modified Gaussian SFR models (see Blain et al. 1999c and Barger et al. 1999b) ar e represented by the solid and dotted lines
resp ectively. A better fit to the prelim inary redshift distribution of submillimetre-selected galaxies (Barger et al. 1999b) is provided
by the modified model, in which the parameters H, σ and z
p
(Blain et al. 1999c) take the values 70, 1 Gyr and 1.7 respectively, as
compared with 95, 0.8 Gyr and 2.1 in the original model. The total amount of star formation/AGN fuelli ng activity taking place in
the modified Gaussian model is 90 per cent of that in the original Gaussian model.
a primordial n = 1 spectrum and the spectrum after recom-
bination.
Using the Tully–Fisher relation (Hudson et al. 1998),
Blain, oller & Maller (1999) obtained a value M
(0) =
3.6 ×10
12
M
. The ex act value of M
(0) is not very impor-
tant here, as a mass-to-light ratio is introduced to convert
the mass spectrum into a luminosity function.
2.2 Deriving a merger rate
Working from the mass spectrum N
PS
(M, z) , Blain & Lon-
gair (1993a,b) showed that a formation rate of bound objects
˙
N
form
(M, z) in galaxy halo mergers can be constructed if the
mass distribution of the components involved in a statisti-
cal sample of merger events is assumed to b e independent
of mass. In this case, the merger rate can be represented
accurately by the fun ction
˙
N
form
=
˙
N
PS
+ φ
˙
M
M
N
PS
exp
h
(1 α)
M
M
γ
i
, (4)
where
˙
N
PS
= γ
˙
M
M
N
PS
h
M
M
γ
1
2
i
. (5)
φ and α are numerical constants, typically about 1.7 and 1.4;
their exact values depend on the assumed mass distribution
of merging components (Blain & Longair 1993a), but have
little effect on the results. The values of both φ and α are
weak functions of γ and depend on the world model param-
eters, but the form φ/
α t hat appears in the calculations
of the background radiation intensity and metal abundance
is almost ind ependent of the value of γ.
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
4 A. W. Blain et al.
2.3 Deriving observable quantities
The merger rate as a function of mass
˙
N
form
can b e readily
used to estimate a number of observable quantities, starting
with the luminosity density (or volume emissivity),
ǫ
L
(z) = 0.007c
2
x(z)
1 f
A
Z
M
˙
N
form
dM, (6)
in which x(z) is the ratio of the mass of baryonic matter con-
verted into metals by nucleosynthesis in a merger-induced
starburst to the total dark mass involved in the merger.
The rationale behind t his form of relation is given by Lon-
gair (1998). The factor of 0.007 is the approximate efficiency
of conversion of mass into energy in stellar nucleosynt hesis.
The parameter f
A
< 1 describes the fraction of the total lu-
minosity of merging galaxies that is attributable to accretion
in AGN, and is expected to lie in the range 0.1 f
A
0.3
(Genzel et al. 1998; Lutz et al. 1998; Almaini et al. 1999;
Barger et al. 1999b; Gunn & Shanks 1999). The parameter
x(z) is expected to vary with redshift z. Blain & Longair
(1993b) predicted a flat background spectrum in the sub-
millimetre and far-infrared wavebands, assuming a constant
value of x. Subsequent observations (e.g. Fixsen et al. 1998)
demand a redshift-dependent form of x(z), as discussed by
Blain et al. (1999c).
By evaluating the integral in equation (6), the luminos-
ity density can be expressed as
ǫ
L
(z) = 0.007c
2
x(z)
1 f
A
¯ρ
φ
α
˙
M
M
. (7)
Interestingly,
˙
M
M
=
2
γ
˙
δ(z)
δ(z)
, (8)
and so, b ecause the density contrast δ(z) is not a function of
the perturbation spectral index γ, the γ dependence in this
term is just a simple scaling. Thus the effect of the value
of γ on the background radiation intensity can be studied
or removed very easily. In an Einstein–de Sitter model t he
luminosity density ǫ
L
x(z)(1 + z)
3/2
.
The comoving density of metals produced in starbursts
between a redshift z
0
, at which star formation activity be-
gins, and z, is
ρ
m
(z) = ¯ρ
φ
α
Z
z
0
z
1
c
x(z)
(1 + z)
˙
M
M
dr
dz
dz, (9)
where r is the radial comoving distance coordinate. N ote
that t his result depends on the merger efficiency parame-
ter x but not on the AGN fraction f
A
, as metals are only
generated in merger-induced starbursts and not in AGN fu-
elling events. Similarly, the background radiation intensity
per unit solid angle emitted by these galaxies, which have a
spectral energy distribution (SED) f
ν
, is
I
ν
=
1
4π
Z
z
0
0
ǫ
L
(z)
1 + z
f
ν(1+z)
R
f
ν
dν
dr
dz
dz. (10)
If the form of ǫ
L
(equation 7) is included explicitly, then
I
ν
=
0.007c
2
¯ρ
4π(1 f
A
)
φ
α
Z
z
0
0
x(z)
1 + z
˙
M
M
f
ν(1+z)
R
f
ν
dν
dr
dz
dz. (11)
Details of the assumed dust SED can be found in Blain et
al. (1999c). The mid-infrared SED is assumed to take the
form f
ν
ν
1.7
.
None of the quantities listed above are affected by the
time dependence of the release of energy during merging
events; however, the source count requires the time profile
of the merger induced starbu rst/AGN to be included. For
simplicity, this profile is assumed to have a top-hat form with
duration σ. The time profile of the luminosity generated in a
detailed simulation of the merger of gas-rich galaxies is dis-
cussed by Mihos & Hernquist (1996), Bekki et al. (1999) and
Mihos (1999). The typical duration of AGN fuelling events
and starbursts may differ; for example, a lower limit to the
duration of a starburst is set by the lifetime of the highest
mass stars, but there is no lower limit to the duration of
an AGN fuelling event. However, to avoid introdu cing an
unnecessarily complicated model, the time-scale of a merger
induced luminous phase is assumed to be independ ent of
its origin. In addition, because not all the mergers of dark
matter haloes that take place at each epoch need induce
a starburst/AGN, a fraction F 1 is assumed. Again, this
fraction could differ for starbursts and AGN, but for simplic-
ity it is assumed not to. The luminosity of a typical merger
induced starburst/AGN of mass M is thus
L(M, z) = 0.007c
2
x(z)
1 f
A
1
F σ
M. (12)
The source count N of galaxies per unit solid angle brighter
than a flux density S
ν
is
N(S
ν
) =
Z
z
0
0
Z
M
min
F σ
˙
N
form
(M, z) dM D
2
(z)
dr
dz
dz, (13)
where D(z) is the comoving distance parameter. The mini-
mum mass merger visible at a flux density S
ν
and redshift
z is
M
min
=
4πD
2
(1 + z)S
ν
0.007c
2
F σ
x(z)
(1 f
A
)
R
f
ν
dν
f
ν(1+z)
. (14)
The time-scale and bursting fraction parameters, σ and F ,
always appear together in calculations, and thus the sin-
gle parameter F σ is constrained by observations. We de-
fine (F σ)
1
to be the activity parameter, which is large in
violent starbursts/AGN and free to vary as a function of
redshift. The rate of energy release within each individual
starburst/AGN is controlled by the value of the activity pa-
rameter. Within a representative cosmological volume the
presence of a population of either rare long-lived or com-
mon short-lived starbursts/AGN cannot be distinguished.
This is why the time-scale and bursting fraction parameters
σ and F are bound together in the activity parameter.
Incorporating redshift evolution of the activity param-
eter introduces another degree of freedom into the count
model, in addition to that provided by the redshift evolu-
tion of t he star formation/AGN fuelling efficiency parameter
x. Of course, x, F and the time-scale σ are also free to vary
as a function of mass. At present, we find no compelling
reason to incorporate this additional complication into the
model.
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
Hierarchical star formation/AGN fuelling 5
(a) (b) (c)
Figure 2. The results of fitting (a) the background radiation s pectrum, (b) the shape of the IRAS 60-µm counts (see Fig. 4a for
references to the data) and (c) both sets of data. The contours are dr awn 1, 2, 3 and 5σ away from the peak probability, w hich is
marked by a cross. This example is calculated for T
d
= 45 K.
Table 1. Values of the parameters p and z
max
required in the
expression for the merger efficiency x(z) (equation 16) to fit the
submillimetre/far-infrared background radiation spectrum and
the low-redshift 60-µm IRAS galaxy counts as a function of as-
sumed dust temperature T
d
. The corresponding values of x
0
, F σ
and
m
are also listed. F 1. The star formation histories asso-
ciated with these models are shown i n Fig. 7. Note that the most
intense star formation activity takes place at a redshift z 5z
max
.
T
d
/K p z
max
x
0
(1 f
A
) (F σ/γ)/Gyr
m
/10
3
(at z = 0) ×(1 f
A
)
35 4.4 0.44 4.32 × 10
5
0.040 1.2
40 4.0 0.55 4.08 × 10
5
0.041 1.3
45 3.3 0.73 4.68 × 10
5
0.063 1.4
50 2.7 0.96 6.36 × 10
5
0.141 1.7
2.4 Constraining the parameters
The background radiation intensities and source counts cal-
culated from the equations derived above depend on a range
of parameters: the world model, defined by H
0
,
0
and
Λ
;
the perturbation spectral index n and the value of M
(0);
the constants φ and α in the merger rate; the merger effi-
ciency x(z); the AGN fraction f
A
; the fraction of mergers
that lead to a starburst/AGN F ; their duration σ; and their
SED f
ν
.
Blain et al. (1999c) used the low-redshift 60-µm IRAS
source count and the 175-µm ISO counts to constrain their
models; here, however, we use the bright 60-µm counts and
the form of the far-infrared/submillimetre background spec-
trum, the two best determined observables, to constrain the
parameters that describe the merger efficiency x(z). If the
SED does not d epend on the mass of the merging galaxies,
then the background spectrum (equation 10) is determined
entirely by the form of the merger efficiency x(z),
I
ν
φ
γ
α
Z
z
0
0
x(z)
1 f
A
˙
δ(z)
δ(z)
1
1 + z
f
ν(1+z)
R
f
ν
dν
dr
dz
dz. (15)
Note that the dependence of I
ν
on the perturbation index
n through γ is completely separate from t he dependence on
the world model. Thus the background spectrum determined
by Puget et al. (1996), Guiderdoni et al. (1997), Dwek et al.
(1998), Fixsen et al. (1998), Hauser et al. (1998), Schlegel,
Finkbeiner & Davis (1998) and Lagache et al. (1999) can
always be used to constrain the form of the merger efficiency
x(z). We adopt a form of x(z) identical to the ‘peak model’
described in Blain et al. (1999c):
x(z) = 2x
0
h
1 + exp
z
z
max
i
1
(1 + z)
p+(2z
max
)
1
. (16)
This is not a uniquely appropriate functional form of x(z).
It was originally chosen to allow the star-formation history
derived by Madau et al. (1996) to be fitted. Its three param-
eters can be manipulated to produce a wide range of plausi-
ble star formation histories. The three parameters are: p, th e
asymptotic low-redshift slope of the merger efficiency x(z) in
(1+z); z
max
, the redshift above which the high-redshift expo-
nential cut-off starts to take effect; and x
0
the value of x(0).
The epoch of most intense star-formation/AGN-fuelling cor-
respond s to a redshift z 5z
max
in these models.
In Figs 2(a) and (b ) the probabilities of fitting the
background radiation spectrum and the slope of the 60-µm
counts predicted from the merger efficiency x(z), defined in
equation (16), to observations are shown as a function of
the key parameters p and z
max
, as an example for a dust
temperature of 45 K. In Fig. 2(c) the joint probability of fit-
ting both sets of data is shown. Note that a constant dust
temperature is assumed. The value of f
A
does not affect the
results. If different dust temperatures are assumed, then the
position of maximum probability moves around the pz
max
plane. However, when the form of the evolution of luminos-
ity density is calculated for each temperature, the curve has
a similar form. The best-fitting values of p and z
max
, and the
corresponding values of the merger efficiency x
0
, the activity
parameter (F σ)
1
0
and the density parameter in metals at
z = 0,
m
, are presented in Table 1 for four plausible values
of the dust temperature: 35, 40, 45 and 50 K. Note that the
Note that the form of this equation published in Blain et al.
(1999c) contained a typographical error in the index of (1 + z).
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
6 A. W. Blain et al.
Figure 3. The intensity of background radiation in the millime-
tre, submillimetre and far-infrared wavebands, as deduced by:
Puget et al. (1996) thin s ol id lines with error bars at the ends;
Fixsen et al. (1998) thin dotted line that ends within the frame;
Schlegel et al. (1998) stars; Hauser et al. (1998) and Dwek e t al.
(1998) thick solid crosses. The diagonal crosses represent lower
limits to the background intensity inferred from source counts.
From left to right: the 850-µm count of Blain et al. (1999b); the
450-µm count of Smail et al. (1997), as updated to include more
recent information from Ivison et al. (1999); and the 175- and
95-µm counts of Kawara et al. (1998) and Puget et al. (1999).
The background spectrum predicted in the 35-, 40-, 45- and 50-
K m odels (Table 1) are represented by solid, dashed, dot-dashed
and dotted lines respectively, and are plotted across the entire
abscissa. In a recent paper, Lagache et al. (1999) claim to have
detected a warm diffuse Galactic dust component that account s
for about 50 per cent of the isotropic DIRBE signal attributed
to the extragalactic background intensity by Hauser et al. (1998)
and Schlegel et al. (1998).
best fitt ing values of p and z
max
depend only weakly on the
world model assumed.
The physical processes that demand a form of luminos-
ity density which rises steeply with increasing redshift before
turning over have not been considered here in any detail. It
seems likely, however, that the steep decline in the star for-
mation rate to the present day is related to the declining
gas content of galaxies at z
<
1, and that t he behaviour at
high redshifts could be attributable to relatively inefficient
cooling of gas and thus of star formation in the mergers of
metal-poor high-redshift systems (see Pei & Fall 1995 and
Pei, Fall & Hauser 1999 for discussions of gas and dust evo-
lution in the Universe). We discuss these issues further in
Jameson, Blain & Longair (2000).
The bright low-redshift 60-µm count,
N
60
r
x
3
0
(F σ)
0
(1 f
A
)
3
S
3/2
60
, (17)
is independent of the cosmological model. At S
60
= 10 Jy,
N
60
= 19 ± 2 sr
1
(Saunders et al. 1990). A value of
p
x
3
0
/(F σ)
0
(1 f
A
)
3
= ( 11 ± 2)γ × 10
7
Gyr
1/2
provides
a good fit for any dust temperature between 30 and 60 K.
The values of t he normalization of the luminosity density
x
0
/(1 f
A
) and the activity parameter (F σ)
1
0
at z 0
that are required to fit the background spectrum and 60-
µm counts depend on the fluctuation index γ as γ
1
and γ
respectively. Thus the mass-to-light ratio of merging galax-
ies (equation 12) is expected to be independent of the value
of the perturbation index. The values of F σ listed in Table 1
are lower limits to the time-scale of the starburst/AGN σ,
as F 1. They are generally consistent with the starburst
time-scales of order 5×10
7
yr derived by Mihos & Hernquist
(1996) from hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy mergers.
The background radiation spectra and 60-µm counts
corresponding to the models listed in Table 1 are shown in
Figs 3 and 4(a) resp ectively. Note that the inclusion of pos-
itive evolution in the efficiency parameter x( z) overcomes
the underprediction of th e 60-µm counts in the constant-x
model of Blain & Longair (1996); see their fig. 6. The slope
of the 60-µm counts in the new model also more adequately
represents the data than the predictions of Guiderdoni et
al. (1998). The luminosity function of nearby d usty galaxies
at 60-µm (Saunders et al. 1990; Soifer & Neugebauer 1991)
predicted in the 40-K model, which is calculated at z = 0
by evaluating F σ
˙
N
form
at the mass corresponding to a lumi-
nosity L in equation (12), is shown in Fig. 4(b). The form of
the luminosity function depends on the value of the pertur-
bation index γ, even though the 60-µm counts are indepen-
dent of γ. The best representation of the observed function
is provided by a value of γ = 2/3, or n 1. A similar high-
luminosity slope could be achieved by modifying the form
of equation (12) so t hat L M
β
, where β > 1. However,
to match the observations with a scale-independent value
of n = 1, a rather extreme value of β = 2 is required. In
the work that follows n is assumed to take the value 1,
similar to the value found for this range of masses by Pea-
cock & Dodds (1994). In this case, the faint-end slop e of
the low-redshift 60-µm luminosity function is equivalent to
a Schechter function parameter α = 5/3 ( Schechter 1976).
This is the same as the faint-end slope α = 1.60 ± 0.13 of
the optically selected luminosity function derived by Steidel
et al. (1999) at z 3, which describes the most numerous
population of h igh-redshift galaxies that are actively form-
ing stars. At 0.75 < z < 1, the luminosity function of the
blue star-forming galaxies in the CFRS survey also has a
faint end slope α = 1.56 (Lilly et al. 1995). Steep faint-end
slopes with indices of about 1.8 are expected for the lu-
minosity functions of dwarf, irregular and infrared-luminous
galaxies, as discussed by Hogg & Phinney (1997).
2.5 Self-consistency
In section 4 of Blain et al. (1999c) the self-consistency of
models of du st-obscured galaxy formation was discussed.
We demanded that a sufficiently large mass of metals, and
associated d ust, was required to be generated by nucleosyn-
thesis at each epoch to account for the far-infrared emission
predicted by the model. As the mass of du st required to
generate a given far-infrared luminosity depends strongly
on the dust temperature, this consistency condition is most
easily expressed as a minimum dust temperature at each red-
shift. In the cases of the models listed in Table 1, this lower
limit t o the dust temperature is presented in Fig. 5, both
with and without an assumed high-redshift Population III
to generate dust. If 2 per cent of the total star formation
activity takes place in a high-redshift Population III, then
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
Hierarchical star formation/AGN fuelling 7
(a) (b)
Figure 4. (a) Observed 60-µm counts of IRAS galaxies and the best-fitting models li sted in Table 1, plotted in the format used
by Oliver, Rowan-Robinson & Saunders (1992). The data are taken from Hacking & Houck (1987; crosses), Rowan-Robinson et al.
(1990; empty triangles), Saunders et al. (1990; filled triangles) and Gregorich et al. (1995; circles): see al so Bertin, Dennefeld &
Moshir (1997). (b) The 60-µm luminosity function predicted in the 40-K m odel, for four different values of the primordial fluctuation
index n. The results are compared with the luminosity function of Saunders et al. (1990) and Soifer & Neugebauer (1991). The
luminosity functions derived for the other assumed dust temperatures are very similar.
the self-consistency limits are always satisfied. The details
of the calculations can be found in Blain et al. (1999c). It is
assumed that all the dust that is generated prior to a partic-
ular redshift still existed at that redshift and was available
to absorb and reprocess the light from young hot stars and
AGN. However, in an hierarchical model, only a small frac-
tion of all the d ust generated by any epoch is found in galax-
ies actively involved in a merger at th at epoch; t his fraction
increases from about 8 t o 25 per cent progressively from the
35-K to 50-K model listed in Table 1. Thus, because most
of the dust will be found in q uiescent objects, the condition
in Fig. 5 is less severe than it might be. However, even if
only 10 per cent of all dust is involved in a luminous dust
enshrouded merger, then the lower limit to the temperature
increases only by about 50 per cent, and so this consistency
requirement is not difficult to satisfy. The same correction
is required if 90 per cent of the energy generated in merg-
ing galaxies is attributable to accretion onto AGN, that is,
if the AGN fraction f
A
= 0.9. Hence, the models are read-
ily self-consistent if high-redshift Population-III stars exist
to generate early metals. More sophisticated models of the
coupled evolution of dust, gas and stars have been presented
by Pei & Fall (1995), Eales & Edmunds (1996) and Pei et
al. (1999).
2.6 Metal enrichment and the production of
low-mass stars
At the present epoch the density of metals formed by nu-
cleosynthesis in stars
m
(0) (equation 9) is expected to be
about 10
3
in the models presented in Table 1. I f solar metal-
licity, about 2.5 per cent by mass (S avage & Sembach 1996),
is typical of the Universe as a whole, and the density param-
eter in baryons
b
h
2
= 0.019 (Burles & Tytler 1998), then
m
1.9×10
3
if h = 0.5. Thus all the mo dels listed in Ta-
ble 1 are consistent with this limit, even if the AGN fraction
Figure 5. The lower limits to the dust temperature as a func-
tion of redshift required by the consistency argument discussed
in Section 2.5. The dust temperatures in the 35, 40, 45, and 50-K
models are shown by the hori zontal lines, and the lower limit im-
posed by the CMBR temperature T
CMBR
is shown by the lower
solid curve. In a self-consistent model, the lower limit to the tem-
perature must be less than the plotted temperature limits at all
epochs. The line styles are the same as those in Figs 3 and 4(a).
The four thin lines show the lower limits if no Population III stars
are included. The four thick lines show the l ower limits if 2 per
cent of all star formation activity takes place in a hi gh-redshift
Population III. z
0
= 20 in all the models.
f
A
= 0 and all the luminosity of merging galaxies is due to
star formation activity that generates heavy elements.
The density parameter in the form of stars at the
present epoch
(0) = (5.9 ± 2.3) × 10
3
(Gnedin & Os-
triker 1992). Observations of L yman-α absorbers along the
line of sight to distant quasars allow the evolution of the
mass of neutral gas and the typical metallicity in the Uni-
verse to be traced as a function of epoch (Storrie-Lombardi,
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
8 A. W. Blain et al.
(a) (b)
Figure 6. (a) The density parameter of gas and stars as a function of redshift. The line styles represent the same models as
those in Figs. 3, 4(a) and 5. The curves represent the density parameter of material processed into stars in the models listed in
Table 1, assuming a Salpeter IMF with mass lim its of 0.07 and 100 M
. The data for the total density of stars at the present epoch
(shaded region) was obtained by Gnedin & Ostriker (1992). The data points represent the density parameter in neutral hydrogen
(Storrie-Lombardi et al. 1996). (b) The rate of increase of metallicity expected in the same models, with data from Pettini et al.
(1997).
McMahon & Irwin 1996; Pettini et al. 1997). In Fig. 6(a)
the mass of material that has been processed into stars is
derived as a function of epoch in each of the star-formation
histories listed in Table 1, assuming that t he AGN fraction
f
A
= 0 and a Salpeter initial mass function ( IMF) with
a lower mass limit of 0.07 M
. In this case about 65–70 per
cent of all stars formed are still burning at the present epoch.
The values of
(0) predicted are thus about 3 times larger
than the observed value, but are comparable with the values
derived in our earlier models (Blain et al. 1999c). In order to
account for this difference, either a lower mass limit to the
IMF of about 1 M
or a value of the AGN fraction f
A
0.75
is required. This high-mass IMF would be compatible with
the inferred lower limit to the IMF of 3 M
required by Zepf
& Silk (1996) to explain the mass-to-light ratios of elliptical
galaxies, and by Rieke et al. (1993) to interpret observations
of M82. Stars with masses less t han 3 M
appear to be less
numerous than expected from a Salpeter IMF in recent ob-
servations of the low-redshift starburst galaxy R136 (N ota
et al. 1998). Goldader et al. (1997) report that the results
of near-infrared spectroscopy of nearby IRAS galaxies with
luminosities between 10
11
and 10
12
L
support a deficit of
stars with masses less than 1 M
in these systems. More de-
tails about variations in the high-redshift IMF are discussed
by Larson (1998).
Metals appear to be overproduced by about a factor of
5 at redshifts of 2 and 3 in the hierarchical models, as shown
in Fig. 6(b ), but again these results can be reconciled with
the observations if a significant fraction of the luminosity
of dusty galaxies is being powered by accretion on to AGN.
Note, however, that the observations of metallicity could
be biased against metal-rich regions of the Universe, either
because of their small physical size (Ferguson, Gallagher &
Wyse 1998) or because of the complete obscuration of a
fraction of background QSOs (Fall & Pei 1993). ASCA X-
ray observations of significant enrichment in intracluster gas
(Mushotzky & Loewenstein 1997; Gibson, Loewenstein &
Figure 7. The luminosity density predicted by the 35-, 40-, 45-
and 50-K models (thick solid, dashed, dot-dashed and dotted lines
resp ectively) listed in Table 1. The values are converted into a star
formation rate assuming the same conversion rate as Blain et al.
(1999c). References to the points on the plot are listed in the
caption of Fig. 1. The thin sol id and dotted lines trace the star
formation his tories derived in Blain et al. (1999c) and Barger et
al. (1999b), which were shown in Fig. 1.
Mushotzky 1998), could indicate that this is the case, at
least in high-density environments.
The observed turn-over in the n eutral gas fraction and
the maximum rate of star formation shown in Fig. 6(a) are
approximately coincident in redshift, and the rate of enrich-
ment in the hierarchical models is broadly consistent with
the slope interpolated between the three highest redshift
data points plotted in Fig. 6(b).
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0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
Hierarchical star formation/AGN fuelling 9
2.7 The history of star-formation/AGN fuelling
In Fig. 7 the form of evolution of the luminosity density is
shown as a function of redshift in the models listed in Ta-
ble 1. All the models predict curves with a rather similar
form at z
<
2. The transformation between luminosity and
star formation rate is the same as that assumed by Blain
et al. (1999c): that is, a SFR of 1 M
yr
1
is equivalent to
a luminosity of 2.2 × 10
9
L
. At low redshifts the evolution
of luminosity density is consistent with optical and near-
infrared observations, and with the results presented in ou r
earlier paper.
3 SOURCE COUNTS
3.1 Fitting the available data
The models presented in Table 1 were constrained using the
properties of the counts of the low-redshift 60-µm IRAS
galaxies. The same formalism can be used to determine
the counts of more distant dusty galaxies in t he mid-/far-
infrared and millimetre/submillimetre wavebands, where a
large amount of additional information about the surface
density of more distant dusty galaxies is available. There is
an upper limit to the surface density of sources at 2.8 mm
(Wilner & Wright 1997); counts at 850 µm (Smail et al. 1997;
Barger et al. 1998; Holland et al. 1998; Hughes et al. 1998;
Barger et al. 1999a; Blain et al. 1999b; Eales et al. 1999); up-
per limits (Smail et al. 1997; Barger et al. 1998), and a new
count (Blain et al. 2000) at 450 µm; 175-µm ISO counts from
Kawara et al. (1998) and Puget et al. (1999); 95-µm counts
from Kawara et al. (1998); and 7- and 15-µm counts from an
extremely deep ISO image of Abell 2390 (Altieri et al. 1999),
which yields counts th at are even deeper than th ose deter-
mined in blank-field surveys by Oliver et al. (1997), Aussel
et al. (1999) and Flores et al. (1999).
If the values of the activity parameter at redshift zero,
(F σ)
1
0
, listed in Table 1 are used to estimate the counts of
galaxies at 850 and 175 µm, then the results underpredict
the observed counts by a large factor. The form of evolu-
tion of the merger efficiency x(z) is fixed by the observed
background radiation intensity, and so, keeping within the
framework of our well-constrained models, the value of the
activity parameter (F σ)
1
at high redshift must be allowed
to increase above its value at redshift zero in order to ac-
count for the observations. This has the effect of increas-
ing the luminosity of high-redshift mergers, thus increasing
the 175- and 850-µm counts. However, the background ra-
diation intensity and the low-redshift 60-µm counts remain
unchanged.
The form of evolution of the activity parameter (F σ)
1
that is required to explain the data is illustrated in Fig. 8.
In Fig. 8(a) the ratio of the model predictions and t he ob-
served counts at wavelengths of 175 and 850 µm (Kawara et
al. 1998; Blain et al. 1999b respectively) are compared as a
function of the activity parameter in the four models listed
in Table 1. The same value of the activity parameter cannot
account for the observed counts at both wavelengths simul-
taneously, and the value required to explain the low-redshift
60-µm counts is different from either. The value of the activ-
ity parameter required to fit th e 60-, 175- and 850-µm counts
increases monotonically. Because the median redshift of the
galaxies contributing to the counts at these redshifts is ex-
pected to increase monotonically, in Fig. 8(b) we present the
ratio of the mod el predictions and t he observed counts as a
function of a parameter p
σ
that describes a simple form of
exponential redshift evolution of the activity parameter,
(F σ)
1
= (F σ)
1
0
exp p
σ
z. (18)
The exponential form provides a reasonable fit to th e data,
but is only one example of a whole family of p otential func-
tions. The important feature is that the function chosen to
represent the activity parameter (F σ)
1
increases rapidly
with increasing red sh ift.
The zero-redshift value of the activity parameter
(F σ)
1
0
is fixed by requiring that the low-redshift 60-µm
count prediction is in agreement with observations; see Ta-
ble 1. The values of the evolution parameter p
σ
that cor-
respond to th e most reasonable t for assumed single dust
temperatures of 35, 40, 45 and 50 K are about 1.5, 1.5, 2.0
and 2.3 respectively. If the specific form of the red sh ift evo-
lution of the activity parameter ( F σ)
1
shown in equation
(18) is assumed, then a dust temperature of 35 or 40 K is
most consistent with the data, the same temperature that
was required for consistency by both Blain et al. (1999c)
and Trentham et al. (1999), and is in agreement with the
dust temperatures derived for high-redshift QSOs by Ben-
ford et al. (1999).
The increase in t he value of the activity parameter
(F σ)
1
as a fun ction of redshift can be interpreted in terms
of two extreme scenarios, or as a combination of both. In
the first scenario, the fraction of dark halo mergers that
lead to a luminous phase in a dusty galaxy F is fixed, but
that the duration of t he luminous phase σ is less at high
redshifts. This is plausible, b ased on the results of simula-
tions of galaxy mergers (e.g. Mihos 1999; Bekki et al. 1999);
on average, the typical mass of a merging pair of galaxies is
expected to be less at high redshifts in an hierarchical sce-
nario of galaxy evolution, and the gas content of the galaxies
is expected to be greater. As a result, the dynamical time
of a merger would be expected to decrease with increasing
redshift, and the viscosity of the ISM would be expected to
increase. Both of these factors might be expected to increase
the star formation efficiency of a merger with increasing red-
shift. In the second scenario, the duration of the luminous
phase associated with a merger σ is independent of redshift,
but the fraction of mergers that induce such a phase F is re-
duced as redshift increases. It is perhaps more plausible that
the second of these scenarios could produce the large change
in the activity parameter (F σ)
1
, by a factor of about 100
from z = 0 to z = 3 that is required to fit the data. This
is because the duration of the luminous phase of a merger-
induced starburst σ must exceed the lifetime of a reasonably
massive star, i.e. σ
>
10
7
yr. If star formation activity pow-
ers a significant fraction of the SCUBA galaxies, as seems
reasonable, then this limit to the value of the merger dura-
tion σ is constrained to be greater than about 10
7
yr, only a
few times less than the values of σ at z = 0 listed in Table 1.
Thus it seems likely that a large fraction of the increase in
the value of the activity parameter (F σ)
1
, which is requ ired
at high redshifts to account for the observed counts, should
be attribu ted to a reduction in the fraction F of dark halo
mergers that generate a luminous galaxy. We speculate that
this may be connected with the lower typical metallicity ex-
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
10 A. W. Blain et al.
(a) (b)
Figure 8. The ratio of the counts predicted by the four models listed in Table 1, and the observed counts, at 175 and 850 µm
(Kawara et al. 1998; Blain et al . 1999b respectively). The upper limits to the counts at 450 µm and 2.8 mm are never viol ated. In
(a) the ratio is shown as a function of the reciprocal of the activity parameter F σ, which is fixed as a function of redshift; in (b)
the ratio is shown as a function of p
σ
, the exponent in equation (18), which describes the exponential evolution of the activity
parameter (F σ)
1
(F σ)
1
0
exp p
σ
z. Clearly, strong redshift evolution of the activity parameter in merging galaxies is required in
order to fit the counts at long wavelengths.
pected at higher redshifts. In a lower metallicity system the
cooling of dense gas would be ex pected to b e less efficient,
and so a large amount of high-mass star formation may be
unable to take place during the short merger process.
3.2 Predicted counts of dusty galaxies
Counts predicted by the four models listed in Table 1, em-
ploying the values of p
σ
listed above, are compared with
observations at wavelengths of 15, 60, 175, 450, 850, 1300
and 2800 µm in Fig. 9. While these models do not present
unique solutions, fewer parameters are involved in the model
than the number of separate pieces of constraining data. In
future, by comparing the predictions of t he models with ob-
servations, especially with the redshift distributions of th e
SCUBA galaxies (Barger et al. 1999b; Lilly et al. 1999; Smail
et al. 1999, in preparation), the models can be developed to
account more accurately for the increasing amount of avail-
able data.
3.3 The corresponding radio counts
There is a tight correlation between the flux densities of
low-redshift galaxies in the radio and far-infrared wavebands
(see the review by Condon 1992). Thus the counts of faint
galaxies observed in the radio waveband should not be over-
produced when the SEDs of the galaxies in the 35-, 40-, 45-
and 50-K models presented here are extended into t he radio
waveband using this correlation. It is permissible to under-
predict the counts, as there will be a contribution from AGN
to the faint counts, which need not be associated with power-
ful restframe far-infrared emission from dust. Partridge et al.
(1997) report a 8.4-GHz galaxy count of 1.0 ± 0.1 arcmin
2
brighter than a flux density of 10 µJy. The correspondings
count predicted by the 35-, 40-, 45- and 50-K models are 0.6,
0.7, 1.0 and 0.6 arcmin
2
respectively. Thus all the mo dels
discussed here are consistent with the deep radio observa-
tions. For comparison, a count of 0.8 arcmin
2
is predicted
by the modified Gaussian model discussed in Barger et al.
(1999b), which is modified from the results of t he simple lu-
minosity evolution models presented by Blain et al. (1999c).
3.4 Redshift distributions
The redshift distributions of submillimetre-selected sources
at, or just below, the flux density limits of current surveys
have been discussed by Blain et al. (1999c) in the context
of models of a strongly evolving population of distant du sty
galaxies, based on the low-redshift IRAS galaxy luminosity
function. The first spectroscopic observations of a large frac-
tion of the potential optical counterparts to SCUBA galax-
ies identified in deep multicolour optical images (Smail et al.
1998) have been made by Barger et al. (1999b) (see Fig. 10).
This redshift distribution is consistent with the optical iden-
tifications made by Lilly et al. (1999) in a SCUBA survey
of Canada–France R edshift Survey (CFRS) fields. The dis-
tribution shown in Fig. 10 is, however, subject to potential
misidentifications of SCUBA galaxies. For example, recent
deep near-infrared images show that two of the Smail et
al. (1998) SCUBA galaxies, which were originally identified
with low-redshift spiral galaxies, can more plausibly be asso-
ciated with extremely red objects (EROs) that were uniden-
tified in optical images (Smail et al. 1999). In two other
cases, at z = 2.55 (Ivison et al. 1999) and z = 2.81 (Ivi-
son et al. 1998), the identifications have been confirmed by
detections of redshifted CO emission (Frayer et al. 1998;
1999), and in another case spectroscopy and ISO observa-
tions (Soucail et al. 1999) strongly support the identification
of a ring galaxy at z = 1.06.
The preliminary redshift distribution of SCUBA galax-
ies, shown in Fig. 10, is broadly consistent with the predic-
tions of t he Gaussian model of Blain et al. (1999c). A mod-
ified Gaussian model, as shown in Fig. 1, was described by
Barger et al. (1999b); the values of the evolution parame-
ters in the modified Gaussian model were explicitly fitted
both to the background radiation intensity and count data
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
Hierarchical star formation/AGN fuelling 11
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 9. Counts predicted by the models li sted in Table 1, compared with available data. The 60-µm counts are shown in (a),
those at 15 and 175 µm are s hown in (b), those at 850 µm and 2. 8 mm are shown in (c), and those at 450 µm and 1.3 mm are shown
in (d). The r ef erences to the data in (a) are given in the caption of Fig. 4(a); in (b), (c) and (d) they are written adjacent to the
data points.
and to the observed median redshift. In Fig. 10 the observed
redshift distribution is compared with the redshift distri-
butions predicted in the Gaussian and modified Gaussian
models, and with the p redictions of the hierarchical models
developed here (see Table 1). Median redshifts of about 2.2,
2.7, 3.2 and 3.5 are expected in the 35-, 40-, 45- and 50-K
hierarchical models respectively.
The redshift distributions predicted by th e hierarchical
models have m edian redshifts greater than that in the mod-
ified Gaussian model, but less than those in either the oth er
models presented by Blain et al. (1999c) or the hierarchical
model E from Guiderdoni et al. (1998), all of which provide
a reasonable fit to both the background radiation intensity
and source counts in the far-infrared/submillimetre wave-
band. Based on these results, the coolest 35-K mod el seems
to be in best agreement with the available data. A model in
which the single-temperature dust clouds discussed here are
replaced by a temperature distribution will probably be re-
quired to account for the redshift distribution of the SCUBA
galaxies. When the two spiral galaxies at z < 0.5 are re-
placed by EROs at z > 1 (S mail et al. 1999), the agreement
between t he 35-K hierarchical prediction and the observed
redshift distribution is rather satisfactory.
In all the hierarchical models, despite strong negative
evolution of the mass-to-light ratio of mergers with increas-
ing redshift, most of the detected galaxies are expected to
lie at redshifts less than 5, and so will be accessible to multi-
waveband study using 8-m class telescopes. When final reli-
able identifications and redshifts for submillimetre-selected
galaxies are available, this information will be crucial for
refining the hierarchical model.
4 OPTICAL BACKGROUNDS AND
COUNTERPARTS
The discussion has so far centred on the properties of merg-
ing galaxies as observed through their dust emission in
the mid-infrared, far-infrared and millimetre/submillimetre
wavebands. Here we assume the same forms of evolution
of both the merger efficiency parameter x and the activ-
ity parameter (F σ)
1
that were required to account for the
data in th e far-infrared and submillimetre wavebands in the
previous section, bu t make predictions in the near-infrared,
optical and ultraviolet wavebands. In particular, we inves-
tigate the 35-K model, in which the redshift distribution of
SCUBA galaxies is in best agreement with observations.
Subject to the uncertain fraction of the luminosity of
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
12 A. W. Blain et al.
Figure 10. The redshift distributions of 850-µm galaxies in the
Smail et al. (1998) sample predicted in the 35-, 40-, 45- and 50-K
hierarchical models l isted in Table 1 (thick smo oth lines; solid,
dashed, dot-dashed and dotted respectively), the Gaussian model
(thin smooth solid line; Blain et al. 1999c) and the modified Gaus-
sian model (thin dotted l ine; Barger et al. 1999). The modified
Gaussian model is fitted to the median redshift of the preliminary
redshift distribution determined by Barger et al. (1999b) for the
optical counterparts to submillimetre-selected galaxies (Smail et
al. 1998), which is shown by the thinner jagged solid line. So urces
with no optical counterparts are assumed to be at z = 4. Using
subsequent K-band observations, Smail et al. (1999) have modi-
fied the identifications of the counterparts of the two galaxies at
z < 1 in the sample, from low-redshift spirals to high-redshift
EROs. After this modification, the revised redshift distribution
is shown by the thicker jagged solid line, if the EROs are both
assumed to lie at z = 3.
these galaxies t hat is assumed to be powered by star forma-
tion activity, we predict th e integrated background radiation
intensity from the near-infrared to ionizing ultraviolet wave-
bands, and the counts of galaxies with SEDs that are domi-
nated by evolved stars in the near-infrared K-band, and by
young stars in the optical B-band. By requiring th at the K-
and B-band counts are reproduced accurately, we estimate
both the fraction of all energy released in mergers that is
reprocessed by dust A and the normalization of the activity
parameter at z = 0, (F σ)
1
0
in the optical waveband. For a
discussion of the evolution of faint galaxies and t heir stellar
populations see Ellis (1997).
4.1 K-band counts
The counts of galaxies in the K-band at a flux density S
K
can be predicted by assuming the forms of the merger effi-
ciency x(z), as listed in Table 1, an SED typical of evolved
stars f
K
ν
(Charlot, Worthey & Bressan 1996), the Press–
Schechter mass function (equation 1) and th e mass-to-light
ratio of evolved stellar populations R
ML
. The SED was cal-
culated using a 9.25-Gyr old Bruzual–Charlot instantaneous
burst model with a Salpeter IMF. Upper and lower mass lim-
its of 0.1 and 125 M
were assumed for the IMF. Note that
the form of the evolved stellar spectrum derived is almost
independent of the exact values of the upper and lower mass
limits assumed. The K-band count
N
K
(S
K
) =
Z
z
0
0
Z
M
K
(z)
N
PS
(M) dM D(z)
2
dr
dz
dz, (19)
with
M
K
(z) = 4πD
2
(1 + z)S
K
R
ML
(z)
R
f
K
ν
dν
f
K
ν
K
(1+z)
. (20)
By ensuring that the predicted counts match the observed
K-band counts, a suitable form of the mass-to-light ratio
R
ML
is determined as a function of redshift. The mass in
this ratio is defined as the mass of the dark matter haloes of
galaxies, taken from the Press–Schechter function (eq uation
1), and the luminosity is the bolometric luminosity of the
evolved stellar population in the galaxies.
In order to reproduce the observed B-band counts, the
counts derived for the evolved and merging components are
added together, as shown in Fig. 11(b). The redshift depen-
dence of the mass-to-light ratio is the same as that of the
luminosity density of evolved stars,
ǫ
L
(z)
1
1 + z
R
z
0
0
x(z
)
1+z
dz
R
z
0
z
x(z
)
1+z
dz
, (21)
which depends on the SFR at all earlier epochs. A factor of
1 + z is included in the denominator to mimic the effects of
passive stellar evolution (Longair 1998). At z = 0 a form of
the mass-to-light ratio,
R
ML
M
L
1
=
80, if L
10
2;
117L
0.55
10
, otherwise,
(22)
where L
10
= L/10
10
L
, is required to match the observed
K-band counts (Fig. 11a) and the faint-end slop e of the ob-
served K- band luminosity function (Gardner et al. 1996;
Szokoly et al. 1998).
The well fitt ing K-band count that is derived from
the model with this form of the mass-to-light ratio R
ML
is shown, along with the observational data, in Fig. 11(a).
4.2 B-band counts
Both passive evolved galaxies and luminous merging galaxies
make a contribution to the B-band counts. The evolved con-
tribution is predicted by evaluating the function that pro-
duces the K-band count at the frequency of t he B-band.
The extrapolation is made using the model SED described
above. An additional population of merging galaxies is also
included. Their counts are determined using equation (13)
directly, with a value of
M
min
=
1
1 A
4πD
2
(1 + z)S
B
0.007c
2
F σ
x(z)
(1 f
A
)
R
f
B
ν
dν
f
B
ν
B
(1+z)
. (23)
A is the fraction of the total energy released in a merger
that is reprocessed into the far-infrared waveband, and f
B
ν
is the SED of a flat star-forming young stellar spectrum at
frequencies less than the Lyman limit frequen cy ν
Ly
= 3.3×
10
15
Hz. f
B
ν
ν
0
if ν ν
Ly
and zero otherwise. The blue
power-law SED expected from an AGN will be described
reasonably well by this SED at ν < ν
Ly
.
The faint counts at B > 21, which are dominated by
merging galaxies, can be reproduced in the model only if
the dust absorption fraction A 0.8 and the zero-redshift
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
Hierarchical star formation/AGN fuelling 13
(a) (b)
Figure 11. (a) Near-infrared K-band and (b) optical B-band counts predicted in the 35-K hierarchical model (Table 1). The K-
band counts are produced almost entirely by quiescent non-merging galaxies (solid line). If the flat spectra of the merging galaxies
are extrapolated into the K band, as shown by the dotted line, then the counts would be expected to increase by about 10 per cent
at K = 20.5 and by 30 per cent at K = 23. In the B-band, the total counts (solid line) are dominated at the bright end by the small
hot stellar component of the quiescent galaxies (dashed line), and at the faint end by the young stellar populations of flat-spectrum
merger induced starbursts/AGN (dotted line). Data points obtained using ground-based telescopes are shown by open circles; data
points from the H ubble Space Telescope are shown by fil led stars. The data are taken from the compilation of Metcalfe et al. (1996).
activity parameter (F σ)
1
0
= 2.5 Gyr
1
. The activity pa-
rameter incorporated in the model evolves with redshift as
shown in equation (18), with the value of p
σ
= 1.5 that
is appropriate in the 35-K model. Note that this value of
the activity p arameter is less t han that required to account
for the observed submillimetre-wave counts, and that the
ratio of energy emitted in the restframe ultraviolet and far-
infrared wavebands is 1:4. This ratio is equivalent to 1.75
magnitudes of extinction when integrated over the optical
and ultraviolet wavebands.
The redshift distribution of faint galaxies at z
>
1
derived in the hierarchical model is in good agreement
with that observed for galaxies with B < 24 (Cowie, Hu
& Songaila 1995); these details are discussed more exten-
sively elsewhere (Jameson et al. 1999, in preparation). Note
that the dependence of the submillimetre and faint B-band
counts on the merging efficiency parameter x(z) and the
AGN fraction f
A
is identical, and so the value of the AGN
fraction does not affect the resulting counts.
The most numerous population of faint high-redshift
optically selected galaxies known are the Lyman-break
galaxies (Steidel et al. 1996a, 1999) at 2.5 z 4.5, which
have apparent SFRs of a few 10 M
yr
1
. The surface den-
sity of detected Lyman-break galaxies is about an order
of magnitude greater than that of submillimetre-selected
galaxies, while their SFRs are typically about an order of
magnitude less.
The violence of a typical merger-induced star-
burst/AGN, and thus its detectability, is determined by
the product of the merging efficiency and activity param-
eters, x(F σ)
1
, in the hierarchical model. The value of this
composite parameter that is required to fit the observed
submillimetre-wave counts is about 40 times greater than
that required to fit the faint B-b and counts. The value of
the activity parameter (F σ)
1
that is required to fit the
submillimetre-wave counts is a factor of about 10 times
greater t han that required to t the B-band counts. These
differences are t hus comparable with the observed ratios of
the surface densities and luminosities of typical galaxies in
the submillimetre-selected and Lyman- break samples.
Based on these differences, we suggest a scenario in
which the optically selected Lyman- break galaxies and the
submillimetre-selected SCUBA galaxies are drawn from the
same underlying population of luminous galaxy merger
events, but are distinguished by being observed during two
distinct phases of the merger pro cess. We associate one
phase, which is very luminous, short-lived and heavily dust
enshrouded, with the SCUBA galaxies, and the other, which
is less luminous and relatively lightly obscured, with the
Lyman-break galaxies. During the first phase, which is about
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
14 A. W. Blain et al.
Figure 12. The background radiation intensity in the hierarchi cal models from the millimetre to the ultraviolet waveband.
The thick solid line shows the total background radiation intensity predicted in the 35-K model (Table 1). In the near-
infrared/optical/ultraviolet waveband the separate contributions to the background intensity from the old stellar population (dashed
line) and the young stellar population/AGN (dotted line) are also shown. At long wavelengths the data points are identical to those
plotted in Fig. 3. Other measurements are numbered: 1. Stanev & Franceschini (1998); 2. Altieri et al. (1999); 3. Dwek & Arendt
(1998); 4. Pozzetti et al. (1998); 5. Toller, Tanabe & Weinberg (1987); 6. Armand, Milliard & Deharveng (1994); 7. Lampton,
Bowyer & Deharveng (1990); and 8. Murthy et al. (1999); see also Bernstein, Freedman & Madore (1999), who determine a greater
absolute background radiation intensity in the optical waveband.
40 times more luminous, but only about a tenth of t he dura-
tion as compared with the second, most of the activity in t he
merger will be almost completely obscured from view in the
optical waveband, but extremely bright in the submillimetre
waveband. This phase is consistent with the extremely com-
pact nuclear starburst/AGN activity observed by Downes &
Solomon (1998) on sub-kpc scales in nearby ultraluminous
IRAS galaxies. During the second phase, less intense star
formation activity would probably b e distributed through-
out the ISM of both merging galaxies. A short lived ultra-
luminous phase and a longer-lived less intense burst of star
formation activity during a merger are consistent with the
results of hydrodynamic models of galaxy mergers by Mihos
& Hernquist (1996) and Bekki et al. (1999).
However, while plausible, this scenario is not necessar-
ily correct. The faint counts in the submillimetre and optical
waveband could simply be drawn from two distinct popula-
tions. The questions of whether and how ultraluminous dust-
enshrouded mergers are connected with the Lyman-break
galaxies can only be answered by making multiwaveband ob-
servations of large samples of submillimetre-selected galaxies
in order to observe a time sequ ence of merging galaxies and
to investigate the merger process in detail. Observations of
the Lyman-break population in the submillimetre waveband
(Chapman et al. 1999) will also help to address these ques-
tions.
4.3 Integrated background light
The global luminosity density predicted by the hierarchical
models is based on the evolution of the merging efficiency
parameter x(z). By making minor modifications to the for-
malism presented in Section 2.3, the models listed in Table 1
can b e used to predict the background radiation intensity.
The near-infrared/optical/ultraviolet background radi-
ation intensity produced by merging galaxies can be calcu-
lated as shown in equation (11), if the fraction of energy
generated by a merger that is absorbed by dust A is in-
cluded. Thus
I
opt
ν
(1A)
φ
γ
α
Z
z
0
0
x(z)
1 f
A
˙
δ(z)
δ(z)
f
B
ν(1+z)
R
f
B
ν
dν
dr
dz
dz
1 + z
.(24)
The background radiation intensity due to the evolved stel-
lar population is not given directly by the expression for the
far-infrared background in equation (11). In that case the
volume emissivity is given by equations (21) and (22). By
integrating this emissivity of evolved objects over redshift,
assuming the SED f
K
ν
introduced above, the background ra-
diation intensity produced by evolved non-merging galaxies
can be calculated. When it is added to the background ra-
diation spectrum produced in merging galaxies, a complete
prediction of th e background intensity between the near-
infrared and near-ultraviolet wavebands is obtained.
The background radiation intensity predicted using the
35-K model, which can explain the K- and B-band galaxy
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
Hierarchical star formation/AGN fuelling 15
counts, is shown across the millimetre to the ultraviolet
wavebands in Fig. 12. The background intensity is in agree-
ment with almost all the observed limits and detections. The
only spectral region in which the background radiation in-
tensity is still not very well defined is between about 3 and
7 µm. At these wavelengths, the dominant source of back-
ground radiation switches from dust emission to starlight.
There is almost certainly an additional, and perhaps domi-
nant, contribution to the background radiation intensity in
the mid-infrared waveband from very hot dust grains in the
central regions of AGN, which are not modelled here. The
model curves shown Fig. 12 are not extrapolated into this
region from the well-determined populations of galaxies at
60-µm and in the K band.
5 OVERVIEW OF MODEL PARAMETERS
We have introduced a series of parameters and functions to
account for different observations section by section through
the paper. Excluding the world model parameters H
0
,
0
and
Λ
, ve parameters are required to define the merger
rate of dark matter haloes. Five further independ ent pa-
rameters [x
0
, p, z
max
, (F σ)
1
0
and p
σ
] and a SED for d usty
galaxies, are required to fit the counts at wavelengths of 15,
60, 175, 450 and 850 µm and the submillimetre-wave/far-
infrared background radiation spectrum. The most impor-
tant element of the models are the two functions that d e-
scribe the merger efficiency parameter x(z) and the activity
parameter (F σ)
1
. We present appropriate forms for these
functions in equations (16) and (18) respectively, b ut stress
that these forms are not unique. As more data becomes avail-
able, other functional forms or free-form fitting functions
may be more appropriate. By modifying the activity pa-
rameter (F σ)
1
0
, introdu cing the total fraction of luminosity
absorbed by dust A, and including a template SED for star-
forming galaxies in the rest frame ultraviolet waveband, the
B-band counts can also be rep rodu ced. In Table 2 we sum-
marize these parameters and the most important pieces of
data used to constrain them. The values of the p arameters
required to t the data in the 35-K mo del are also listed.
6 CONCLUSIONS
(i) We have p resented a simple model of hierarchical
galaxy formation which incorporates the effects of obscu-
ration by dust, in which the galaxies that are detected in
submillimetre-wave surveys are observed during a merger-
induced episode of star formation or AGN fuelling. The aim
of this model is to elucidate the most important physical
processes that could be at work in luminous dusty galaxies,
rather than t o provide a detailed quantitative description.
(ii) The model is constrained primarily by the intensity
of background radiation in the far-infrared/submillimetre
waveband. From these data alone, the luminosity density
from high-redshift galaxies is inferred to exceed that de-
duced from observations in the rest frame ultraviolet and op-
tical wavebands by up to an order of magnitude. The source
counts and background radiation intensity in the submil-
limetre, far-, mid- and near-infrared, and optical wavebands
are reproduced adequately in the model without introducing
a large number of parameters.
(iii) The counts of galaxies detected in t he far-
infrared/submillimetre and optical wavebands, and th e asso-
ciated background radiation intensities in th ese wavebands
are consistent if about 4 times more energy is emitted by
galaxies after being repro cessed into the far-infrared wave-
band by interstellar dust as is radiated directly in the opti-
cal/ultraviolet waveband.
(iv) In order to account for the observed abundance of
distant galaxies detected at 175 and 850 µm using ISO and
SCUBA, the mass-to-light ratio of a typical galaxy merger
must decrease with redshift, by a factor of about 10 and
200 at z = 1 and 3 respectively. Thus high-redsh ift merg-
ers must be typically more violent as compared with their
low-redshift counterparts. We suggest two possible physical
explanations. First, that gas is converted into stars/feeds
an AGN uniformly more efficiently and rapidly in all merg-
ing galaxies as redshift increases, perhaps due to a lower
bulge-to-disk ratio, which makes disk instabilities grow more
quickly (Mihos & Hernquist 1996). Secondly, that a decreas-
ing fraction of dark matter halo mergers are associated with
an efficient mod e of star formation/AGN fuelling as redshift
increases.
(v) In the context of galaxy formation within merging
dark matter haloes, we have described how the physical
processes that convert merging mass into visible radiation
must evolve with redshift in order to account for the data
in the far-infrared and submillimetre wavebands. This has
previously been discussed by Guiderdoni et al. (1998), in the
conventional context of semi-analytic models, where gas is
assumed to cool into dark matter haloes and form stars on
galactic scales. In order to account for the observations, an
additional p opulation of ultraluminous galaxies was incor-
porated arbitrarily into their models. We have improved our
previous models (Blain et al. 1999c) significantly, by includ-
ing some astrophysics and not simply invoking an empirical
form of the evolution of a low-redshift luminosity function
to fit the data. By assuming only a single population of
luminous merging galaxies we are able to account for all
the data in the far-infrared and submillimetre wavebands.
Clear forms of evolution of both the efficiency with which
luminosity is generated by a galaxy merger as a function of
redshift, and of a function that connects the duration of t he
luminous phase and the fraction of dark matter halo mergers
that generate a luminous event are required to reproduce the
results of observations. The way in which gas is processed in
the sub-kpc core regions of galaxy mergers to reproduce the
necessary high efficiency and short time-scale of luminous
events must be investigated in future work.
(vi) We find that the observed counts of both
submillimetre-selected galaxies and Lyman-break galaxies
can be accounted for in terms of merger events in an hi-
erarchical model of galaxy formation, which include iden-
tical forms of evolution with redshift, but with different
absolute normalisations. We find that 80 per cent of the
total amount of energy generated in merger-induced star-
bursts/AGN is liberated in the far-infrared waveband. It is
plausible that the submillimetre-selected galaxies and the
Lyman-break galaxies are associated with temporally dis-
tinct phases of a common population of merging dark mat-
ter haloes. A scenario in which a short-lived, highly obscured
c
0000 RAS, MNRAS 000, 000–000
16 A. W. Blain et al.
Table 2. A summary of the parameters and functions that have been introduced in this paper, generally listed in order of their
first appearance. The values of these parameters in the best-fitting 35-K model, which reproduces the current redshift distribution of
submillimetre-selected galaxies adequately, are also listed. An Einstein–de Sitter world model with h = 0.5 is assumed throughout.
Name Symbol Value in the 35-K model Constrained by
Smoothed density ¯ρ N/A Assumed equivalent to
0
= 1
Fluctuation index n n 1 60-µm luminosity function
γ = 1 + (n/3)
Fluctuation mass (z = 0) M
3.6 × 10
12
M
Tully–Fisher relation
Merger rate constants φ, α 1.7, 1.4 Self-similar merging process
Far-infrared SED f
ν
N/A 4 temperatures assumed
Fraction of luminous f
A
f
A
= 0 (generally assumed) see Section 2.3
mergers powered by AGN
Timescale of mergers σ N/A see activity parameter
Fraction of mergers that F N/A see activity parameter
yield luminous events
Merger star-formation x(z) x
0
10
4
(γ
2
F σ)
1/3
(1 f
A
) Gyr
1/3
Bright 60-µm counts
efficiency (equation 16) p = 4.4 Far-infrared background
z
max
= 0.44 Far-infrared background
Activity parameter (F σ)
1
(z) (F σ)
1
0
= 18.8 Gyr
1
Bright 60-µm counts
(submillimeter/far-inf rared) (equation 18) p
σ
1.5 175- and 850-µm counts
Activity parameter (F σ)
1
0
= 2.5 Gyr
1
Faint B-band counts
(B-band) p
σ
1.5 From submillimetre results
Fraction of energy that A 0.8 Faint B-band counts
is reprocessed by dust
B- and K-band SEDs f
B
ν
, f
K
ν
N/A Spectral synthesis models
Mass-to-light ratio of R
ML
See equation (22) K-band counts
evolved galaxies
far-infrared starburst/AGN p hase dominates the integrated
luminosity of the merger and is surrounded in time by a less
luminous, more lightly obscured phase that lasts about 10
times longer is consistent with the data. In this scenario, the
merger would be classified as a SCUBA galaxy if it was ob-
served during the short-lived phase, and as a L yman-break
galaxy during the long-lived phase.
(vii) The results presented here provide excellent oppor-
tunities for further study. Two key scientific questions re-
main unanswered. First, what are the physical processes
that are responsible for the evolution of both the star-
formation/AGN- fuelling efficiency and the activity param-
eter in galaxy mergers as a function of redshift? Secondly,
what is the relationship between samples of faint galaxies
selected in the optical waveband and submillimetre-selected
galaxies? Larger samples of submillimetre-selected galaxies
and more comprehensive multiwaveband follow-up observa-
tions will allow these questions to be answered.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We thank Nigel Metcalfe for providing a comprehensive list
of optical count data, and Chris Mihos, Priya Natarajan,
Kate Quirk, Chuck Steidel and Neil Trentham for providing
useful comments on the manu script. Thanks are also due
to an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions and prompt
reading of the manuscript. AWB, A J and RJI acknowledge
PPARC, IS thanks the Royal Society, and JPK thanks the
CNRS for support. In addition, AWB thanks MENRT for
support while in Toulouse, and the Caltech AY visitors pro-
gram for support while this work was completed.
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We have used the Very Large Array (VLA) of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory at 8.44 GHz to image a ~40 arcmin2 field with an unprecedented rms sensitivity of 1.5 mu Jy. After correcting for the effects of discrete foreground radio sources, we examined this most sensitive microwave image of the sky for fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background radiation (CBR). At the 6" resolution of our VLA map, Delta T/T ~ (0.7 +/- 0.8) x 10-4, with an upper limit of 1.3 x 10-4 at 95% confidence. At 1' resolution, we measure a fluctuation amplitude of Delta T/T = (1.2 +/- 1.4) x 10-5. We also report on our observations of the linear and circular polarization of the CBR for which we derive upper limits (at 95% confidence) of Delta T/T
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Understanding the nature and future evolution of star-forming galaxies found at 2<z<5 requires a thorough knowledge of the star formation process locally. The KPNO International Spectroscopic Survey (KISS) is a wide-field survey for extragalactic emission-line objects being carried out with the Burrell Schmidt at Kitt Peak. We have discovered approximately 1100 emission-line galaxies (ELGs) in a survey area of 68 sq. degrees (16.6 galaxies per square degree). These ELGs were identified via their Hα flux and have been used to measure the star formation rate (SFR) density of the local universe. We find a SFR density approximately equal to that found by Gallego et al. (1995). We note, however, that our survey is incomplete for galaxies with EW ( H α)<25 Å implying that the total local SFR density is higher than this value.
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We investigate a set of coupled equations that relates the stellar, gaseous, chemical, and radiation contents of the universe averaged over the whole population of galaxies. Using as input the available data from quasar absorption-line surveys, optical imaging and redshift surveys, and the COBE DIRBE and FIRAS extragalactic infrared background measurements, we obtain solutions for the cosmic histories of stars, interstellar gas, heavy elements, dust, and radiation from stars and dust in galaxies. Our solutions reproduce remarkably well a wide variety of observations that were not used as input. These include the integrated background light from galaxy counts from near-ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths, the rest-frame optical and near-infrared emissivities at various redshifts from surveys of galaxies, the mid-infrared and far-infrared emissivities of the local universe from the IRAS survey, the mean abundance of heavy elements at various epochs from surveys of damped Lyalpha systems, and the global star formation rates at several redshifts from Halpha, mid-infrared, and submillimeter observations. The chemical enrichment history of the intergalactic medium implied by our models is also consistent with the observed mean metal content of the Lyalpha forest at high redshifts. We infer that the dust associated with star-forming regions is highly inhomogeneous and absorbs a significant fraction of the starlight, with only 41%-46% of the total in the extragalactic optical background and the remaining 59%-54% reprocessed by dust into the infrared background. The solutions presented here provide an intriguing picture of the cosmic mean history of galaxies over much of the Hubble time. In particular, the process of galaxy formation appears to have undergone an early period of substantial inflow to assemble interstellar gas at z>~3, a subsequent period of intense star formation and chemical enrichment at 1
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We report new observations of Zn II and Cr II absorption lines in 10 damped Lyα systems (DLAs), mostly at redshift zabs 2.5. By combining these results with those from our earlier survey and other recent data, we construct a sample of 34 measurements (or upper limits) of the Zn abundance relative to hydrogen [Zn/H]; the sample includes more than one-third of the total number of DLAs known. The plot of the abundance of Zn as a function of redshift reinforces the two main findings of our previous study. (1) Damped Lyα systems are mostly metal poor, at all redshifts sampled; the column density-weighted mean for the whole data set is [Zn/H] = -1.13 ± 0.38 (on a logarithmic scale), or approximately 1/13 of solar. (2) There is a large spread, by up to 2 orders of magnitude, in the metallicities we measure at essentially the same redshifts. We propose that damped Lyα systems are drawn from a varied population of galaxies of different morphological types and at different stages of chemical evolution, supporting the idea of a protracted epoch of galaxy formation. At redshifts z 2, the typical metallicity of the damped Lyα systems is in agreement with expectations based on the consumption of H I gas implied by the recent measurements of ΩDLA by Storrie-Lombardi et al., and with the metal ejection rates in the universe at these epochs deduced by P. Madau from the ultraviolet luminosities of high-redshift galaxies revealed by deep imaging surveys. There are indications in our data for an increase in the mean metallicity of the damped Lyα systems from z > 3 to ≈ 2, consistent with the rise in the comoving star formation rate indicated by the relative numbers of U and B drop-outs in the Hubble Deep Field. Although such comparisons are still tentative, it appears that these different avenues for exploring the early evolution of galaxies give a broadly consistent picture. At redshifts z < 1.5, DLAs evidently do not exhibit the higher abundances expected from a simple, closed-box model of global chemical evolution, although the number of measurements is still very small. We speculate that this may be due to an increasing contribution of low surface brightness galaxies to the cross section for damped Lyα absorption and to the increasing dust bias with decreasing redshift proposed by S. M. Fall and collaborators. However, more DLAs at intermediate redshifts need to be identified before the importance of these effects can be assessed quantitatively. The present sample is sufficiently large for a first attempt at constructing the metallicity distribution of damped Lyα systems and comparing it with those of different stellar populations of the Milky Way. The DLA abundance histogram is both broader and peaks at lower metallicities than those of either thin or thick disk stars. At the time when our Galaxy's metal enrichment was at levels typical of DLAs, its kinematics were closer to those of the halo and bulge than a rotationally supported disk. This finding is at odds with the proposal that most DLAs are large disks with rotation velocities in excess of 200 km s-1, based on the asymmetric profiles of absorption lines recorded at high spectral resolution. Observations of the familiar optical emission lines from H II regions, which are within reach of near-infrared spectrographs on 8-10 m telescopes, may help resolve this discrepancy.