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How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility
Abstract
This paper examines the contributions of family planning programs, economic development, and women's status to Indonesian fertility decline from 1982 to 1987. Methodologically we unify seemingly conflicting demographic and economic frameworks into a single "structural" proximate-cause model as well as controlling statistically for the targeted (nonrandom) placement of family planning program inputs. The results are consistent with both frameworks: 75% of the fertility decline resulted from increased contraceptive use, but was induced primarily through economic development and improved education and economic opportunities for females. Even so, the dramatic impact of the changes in demand-side factors (education and economic development) on contraceptive use was possible only because there already existed a highly responsive contraceptive supply delivery system.
... Fertility declines spurred by increases in female education and/or broader access to family planning can be the result of several altered fertility factors: stopping rules (reduction of family size), later fertility initiation (age at first birth), longer interpregnancy intervals (IPI), or any combination of these (Bongaarts, 1987;Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994;Potter, 1988;Trussell, 1988). Most of these changes have potentially significant health-related payoffs. ...
... Declines were driven in part by gains in women's education and labor force entry (Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994) but also supported by an aggressive stance toward family planning provisions nationwide. The National Population and Family Planning Board (Badan Kependudukan dan Keluarga Berecana Nasional, BKKBN) was founded in 1970 and quickly grew in size, scope, and stature (Hull, 2005). ...
The impact of fertility decline on economic development remains central to population studies. Recent scholarship emphasizes parental investment in education as a mediator. We further develop the theoretical foundation, and empirical evidence, for the role of child health—specifically how fertility changes promote children’s physical and cognitive development and thereby complement human capital accumulation through educational gains. We test this using a two-generation model applied to Indonesian longitudinal data from 1993 to 2015. Characteristics of modern fertility regimes—older maternal ages, longer interpregnancy intervals, and lower average birth orders—generally benefit offspring cognitive development and schooling. We estimate that family planning expansion, and the resulting shift in fertility traits, induced an average increase of 0.34 years of offspring educational attainment by age 18 years. Maximal maternal educational and family planning expansion would jointly produce a 1.12-year gain, including 0.20 years more directly attributable to fertility shifts. Evidence is strengthened in parallel simulations from models of within-mother shifts, in which fertility shifts resulted in a 0.16-year gain in offspring schooling. Findings contribute new evidence for the rounding effects of women’s education and family planning expansion on human capital formation through child health within families and across generations.
... Theoretically, the increase in contraceptive use is a result of either a rise in the demand for family planning associated with rapid socio-economic development or better access to improved family planning services, or both (Mwaikambo et al. 2011;Vahidnia 2007;Richey and Salem 2008;Gertler and Molyneaux 1994). The socio-economic development theory of contraceptive use stipulates that individuals use birth control means because they strongly need them, as a result of expected benefits overtaking the perceived costs. ...
... Other researches, however, combine both theories (Jain andRoss 2012, Lapham andMauldin 1985) to explain the success of family planning in many settings. Gertler and Molyneaux (1994), for instance, established that the rise in contraceptive use that lowered Indonesian fertility was motivated by increased demand for contraception, which in turn was induced by the improvement in female education and females' wages. Yet Bongaarts (2014) has demonstrated that a family planning program in itself can, paradoxically, raise the demand for family planning. ...
... The pace of fertility decline is subject to contraceptive practices and women's demand for contraception; however, overall demand is greatly affected by the supply of quality services and methods (Fabic et al., 2015;Lewis, 1986;Mwaikambo et al., 2011;NASEM, 2016). Research has found that inconsistent contraceptive availability impacts women's contraceptive uptake (Bongaarts & Watkins, 1996;Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994). Indonesia's demographic transition highlights the importance of modern contraceptives for achieving fertility decline. ...
... Indonesia's demographic transition highlights the importance of modern contraceptives for achieving fertility decline. Between 1982 and 1987, contraceptive use was the dominant factor that influenced fertility decline and, thus, its demographic transition (Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994). Therefore, ensuring the affordability and availability of contraceptives is paramount to stimulating fertility decline and attaining desired fertility. ...
Background: Africa will double its population by 2050 and more than half will be below age 25. The continent has a unique opportunity to boost its socioeconomic welfare. This systematic literature review aims to develop a conceptual framework that identifies policies and programs that have provided a favorable environment for generating and harnessing a demographic dividend. This framework can facilitate sub-Saharan African countries’ understanding of needed actions to accelerate their demographic transition and capitalize on their demographic dividend potential.
Methods: The search strategy was structured around three concepts: economic development, fertility, and sub-Saharan Africa. Databases used included PubMed and EconLit. An inductive approach was employed to expand the reference base further. Data were extracted using literature records following a checklist of items to include when reporting a systematic review suggested in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement.
Results: The final review consisted of 78 peer-reviewed articles, ten reports from the gray literature, and one book. Data were categorized according to relevant demographic dividend typology: pre-dividend and early-dividend. The results from the literature review were synthesized into a framework consisting of five sectors for pre-dividend countries, namely 1) Governance and Economic Institutions, 2) Family Planning, 3) Maternal and Child Health, 4) Education, and 5) Women's Empowerment. An additional sector, 6) Labor Market, is added for early-dividend countries. These sectors must work together to attain a demographic dividend.
Conclusions: A country's demographic transition stage must guide policy and programs. Most sub-Saharan African countries have prioritized job creation and employment for youth, yet their efforts to secure a productive labor market require preliminary and complementary investments in governance, family planning, maternal and child health, education, and women’s empowerment. Creating a favorable policy environment for generating and capitalizing on a demographic dividend can support their stated goals for development.
... Changing preferences for smaller families were also driven by other developments. These include improvements in women's education and employment opportunities (Gertler and Molyneaux, 1994;Molyneaux and Gertler, 2000;Angeles et al., 2005;Kim, 2010), as well as reduced opportunities for labour and increased opportunities for education among children (Suryahadi et al., 2005). ...
... Our results are consistent with other studies that find that the Indonesian family planning programme contributed to the decline in fertility depicted in Fig. 1 (Gertler and Molyneaux, 1994;Molyneaux and Gertler, 2000;Angeles et al., 2005;Kim, 2010). Also important was the effect of the advent of modern media as found in other studies (Jensen and Oster, 2009;La Ferrara et al., 2012) and only recently identified for Indonesia (Dewi et al., 2017). ...
We analyse the heights of children aged 2 to 12 in the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) focusing on the effect of the number of children in the family. Previous studies of the trade-off between the quantity of children and some measure of their quality have been much concerned with the endogeneity of fertility choices. Here we use the IFLS for 1993, 1997 and 2000 to exploit some unique institutional features that have influenced fertility. We find evidence that family size is influenced both from the supply side, as represented by components of the Indonesian family planning programme, and on the demand side, as represented by exposure to modern media. We use these variables as instruments for family size in regressions for the height z-scores. We find evidence for a significant negative effect of family size on height in the presence of a range of other influences. An increase of one sibling is associated with a decrease of one third of a standard deviation in the z-score of height. This effect is stronger among families with low-educated mothers and is present in both urban and rural settings.
... For example, Bailey (2010) studied how the birth control pill accelerated the post-1960 U.S. fertility decline. Miller (2010) analyzed the role that ProFamilia, a program that provided IUD devices to married women, had on the Colombian demographic transition, and Gertler and Molyneaux (1994) assessed the contribution of contraceptives to the Indonesian fertility decline during 1980s. ...
... Firstly, It helps to better understand the impact and effectiveness of fertility policies. As previously mentioned, the bulk of studies focuses on the fertility impact that contraceptives potentially have on the generation of individuals directly affected by them (Bailey (2010), Miller (2010), Gertler and Molyneaux (1994), Pop-Eleches (2010)). Papers that analyze the effect of contraceptives on future generations usually target different outcomes such children's health (Joshi and Schultz (2013)), their socio-economic status (Bailey (2013), Pop-Eleches (2006)) and their propensity to commit crimes (Donohue III and Levitt (2001)). ...
... Tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk yang tinggi pada dasarnya dapat menjadi sumber daya potensial untuk pembangunan, namun kenyataannya jumlah penduduk yang tinggi tetapi tidak seimbang dengan sarana dan prasaran pendukung cenderung menjadi faktor penghambat pembangunan (Harsoyo, 2018). Makadari itu, pengendalian penduduk merupakan kunci untuk meningkatkan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan masyarakat (Gertler, 1994). Menurut Survei Penduduk Antar Sensus (SUPAS) jumlah penduduk di Provinsi Bali pada 2019 mencapai 4,36 juta jiwa atau hanya sekitar 1,63% dari total penduduk Indonesia, dengan jumlah penduduk laki-laki 2,19 juta jiwa dan perempuan 2,17 juta jiwa. ...
The purpose of this study was to analyze the simultaneous effect of the respondent's education level, parental education level, premarital pregnancy and parental income on the age at marriage of female early marriage offenders in Gianyar Regency and to analyze the partial effect of respondents' education level, parental education level, premarital pregnancy and parental income on age at marriage for women in Gianyar Regency. The number of samples taken was 100 EFA wives. The data analysis technique used was multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that 1) Simultaneously the respondent's education level, parental education level, premarital pregnancy and parental income had a significant effect on the age at marriage for women in Gianyar Regency. 2) Partially, the respondent's education level has a positive and significant effect on the age at marriage for women in Gianyar Regency. 3) Partially the level of parental education and parental income has no effect on the age at marriage for women in Gianyar Regency. 4) Female respondents who married for reasons of pre-marital pregnancy were lower than those who married not for reasons of pre-marital pregnancy and the difference was significant.
... the inception of the midwife program in Indonesia. This family planning program already led to a substantial decline in the fertility rate [Gertler and Molyneaux (1994)]. Second, Samarakoon and Parinduri (2015) find that an increase in education in Indonesia (possibly due to major education programs like Sekolah Dasar INPRES school building program) led to higher usage of contraceptives. ...
In about last three decades, many developing countries have experienced a large decline in maternal mortality rates. Global initiatives leading to better maternal health policies may have contributed to this decline. In this paper, we investigate whether maternal health intervention also improves the fetal survival rate. For this purpose, we consider the Village Midwife Program in Indonesia, which was launched in 1989 as a part of the safe motherhood strategy. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), we investigate the impact of midwives on fetal survival rate in terms of a change in the likelihood of a live birth being male. Our results show that the provision of a midwife in a community increases the probability of a live birth being male by about 3 percentage points. Greater antenatal care, skilled birth-attendance, and an improvement in nutrition among reproductive-age women—in terms of greater BMI—are the likely pathways. We do not find the results to be driven by pre-treatment trends, and they remain robust to a number of checks.
... This huge amount is a potential that requires management in a planned, systematic and structured manner so that it can be used as a guide for future development. Various problems surrounding adolescents such as premarital sex, abortion, young marriage, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and narcotics, psychotropic substances and addictive substances (drugs) are increasingly worrying (Gertler, 1994;Wilopo, 1997;Handayani, 2012). The various adolescent problems show the importance of adolescents being managed well, one of them is through the Generation Planning Program (GenRe) at the BKKBN. ...
This study is motivated by the high rate of early marriage, drug abuse, and HIV/AIDS in West Sumatera in adolescents aged 10-24 years. This is allegedly due to the lack of attention of parents to adolescents of 12 years of compulsory education, parents' lack of attention to adolescence and lack of moral education to adolescents. This study aims to (1) Describe genre program planning, (2) Describe the success of genre programs, (3) relationship planning with success. This type of research is descriptive correlational with the population being PIK R adolescents in the GenRe program in the National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) West Sumatera Province, amounting to 50 people. Samples were taken 10% of the population of 500 people. Sampling technique uses system random sampling. The data collection techniques are using questionnaires, and questionnaires as data collection tools. While the data analysis techniques in this study are using the percentage formula, and to see the relationship between them using Product Moment. The results of the study stated that (1) the implementation of the planning used by the ambassadors in the GenRe program in the West Sumatera provincial BKKBN was good enough, according to the teenagers' needs and strategies. (2) the success seen from the understanding, knowledge, and behavior of adolescent members of the PIK R on the GenRe program in the West Sumatra provincial BKKBN in daily life is quite good. (3) There is a significant relationship between the planning and success of the GenRe program in the BKKBN of West Sumatera province.
... Moreover, diffusion of a small family size norms and knowledge of birth control information and services are likely to emerge among an elite group with higher levels of education, subsequently to be diffused across different social strata (Bras, 2014;Casterline, 2001;Cleland, 2001Cleland, , 2002Diamond et al., 1999). Government endorsement of family planning can have a legitimizing effect that can substantially reduce normative barriers against birth control (Freedman & Berelson, 1978;Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994). Diffusion then proceeds rapidly when purposive, organized programs include not only FPPs but also legislation and incentives for limiting family size-as has been the case in China. ...
The influence of China’s family planning policies on fertility transition is widely acknowledged in research studies. However, little is known about how improvements in women’s education have shaped reproductive decisions of Chinese women across different family planning regimes, particularly at micro level. This study uses retrospective pooled birth history data from five consecutive population and family planning surveys collected over the period 1982–2006 to systematically examine the interrelationship between family planning policies and women’s education, and their interactive effect on the second and third birth transitions. We hypothesize that family planning policies had a differential influence on educational groups in reducing the transition to second and third births. The results from discrete time complementary log–log survival models provide strong evidence of differential reproductive behavior of education groups across time in China, and the simultaneous influence of women’s education and family planning policies in lowering risks to higher parities. The rates of progression to second and third births tend to be lower after the introduction of rigid family planning policies, and more importantly, the policy impact persisted even after adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. The increase in women’s education overall had a depressing effect on transition to higher parities, and family planning policies implemented overtime have had differential effects on women from different educational groups. The findings show that both family planning policies and women’s education have been instrumental in shaping fertility behavior in China.
... However, it has also been argued that family planning programmes have been highly effective by providing easier access to contraception, promoting the advantages of smaller families, or often doing both. These studies mostly point to Asian countries that have experienced accelerated declines in fertility in a short period, such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Iran (Angeles et al., 2005;Carty et al., 1993;Cleland et al., 1994;Erfani & McQuillan, 2008;Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994). Of course, the two approaches-educating females and family planning-are not mutually exclusive, and it has also been argued that they reinforce each other (Bongaarts, 2017;Lutz, 2014). ...
Bangladesh, one of the world's poorest countries, has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility since 1985, with a decline in the total fertility rate from 5.5-2.1. International researchers have debated the reasons for this rapid decline, with some studies attributing it primarily to family planning programmes and others pointing at the simultaneous increase in the education of women and other socioeconomic factors. Using data from seven-rounds of the Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS), we comprehensively review fertility trends by reconstructing cohort and period fertility indicators by educational attainment. Multilevel regression shows a robust negative association between fertility and educational attainment at the individual and community levels. Pathway's analysis reveals that female education has a significant effect on declining fertility desires dominating all other effects. Increased women's education and the associated diffusion of smaller desired family size might be the primary factor driving the impressive fertility decline in Bangladesh.
... İkinci problem ise, aile planlaması programlarının sosyo-ekonomik gelişmeleri içselleştirmesidir. Bazı deneysel çalışmalar doğurganlık üzerine aile planlaması programlarını en iyi şekilde pekiştirmiştir (Gertler ve Molyneaux, 1994;Prichett, 1994). Bu çalışmalar da daha iyi olmalarına rağmen, kusurlu olmaktan kurtulamamışlardır (Bongaarts, 1994;Knowles, Akin ve Guilky 1994). ...
Nüfus, insanoğlunun en önemli sorunlarının başında yer almayı sürdürmektedir. Zamana ve toplumlara bağlı olarak nüfusun büyüklüğü ve yapısı hep tartışıl-maktadır. Tartışmaların hareket noktası, nüfusun kendisinden bağımsız olunca, uzlaşılan sonuçlara da pek rastlanılmamaktadır. Bununla birlikte, öncelikleri ve ağırlıkları farklı olsa bile, nüfusun yapısını etkileyen belirli faktörler üzerinde durul-maktadır. Bu faktörlere bağlı olarak çok çeşitli teoriler geliştirilmekte ve böylelikle nüfus sorununa ilişkin açıklama ve anlama çabalarına girişilmektedir. Zaten Enver ÖZKALP’in de bildirdiği üzere, içinde bulunduğumuz toplumun sahip olduğu nüfus yapısını ve özelliklerini bilmeden yaşadığımız dünyayı anlamakta güçlükle karşılaşırız. Çünkü nüfus, bütün ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasal sorunların temelini oluşturmaktadır.
Çalışmanın gerçekleşmesindeki katkılarından dolayı, Prof. Dr. Ferit KOÇOĞLU ve Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Komisyon üyeleri ve çalışanlarına teşekkür ediyoruz.
... (1990) serta Hull dan Hatmadji (1987, dalam Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994 yang menyatakan bahwa penurunan fertilitas di Indonesia sepanjang tahun 1977-1986 disebabkan oleh dua faktor, yaitu adanya kenaikan yang signifikan dalam pemakaian kontrasepsi dan naiknya umur kawin pertama, serta kombinasi kedua faktor tersebut dengan faktor sosial, ekonomi dan budaya (McNicoll & Singarimbun, 1983). Kenaikan prevalensi kontrasepsi (Contraceptive Prevalance Rate/CPR) hampir dua kali lipat dari 27% di tahun 1980 menjadi 47% pada tahun 1987 (Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994). Begitu juga dengan rata-rata umur kawin pertama mengalami peningkatan dari 19,3 tahun pada 1971 menjadi 21,1 tahun pada 1985. ...
Since 1971, the total fertility rate in Indonesia consistently declined, but from 2002-2003 to 2012, the rate is stagnant at 2.6. Recently, Indonesia’s total fertility rate was increased slightly from 2.34 in 2016 to 2.40 children in 2017. This study analyzed individual and contextual factors that affect the number of children ever born based on the 2017 RPJMN KKBPK Survey. The survey collected data from 52,340 women aged 15-49 years old. The analytical approaches for this study are descriptive and inferential techniques using a two-level multilevel regression with a random intercept. All predictor variables at level 1 and level 2, namely individual factors (contraceptive use, marital status, age at first sexual intercourse, childhood mortality, health insurance coverage, contraceptive knowledge, age, work status, economic status and marital frequency) and contextual factor (area of residence) are found to have a significant effect on children ever born. The dominant factors influencing the number of children ever born are age at first sexual intercourse, age, marital frequency and childhood mortality.
... For example, Bailey (2010) examined how the birth control pill accelerated the post-1960 US fertility decline. Miller (2010) analyzed the role that ProFamilia, a program that provided IUD devices to married women, had on the Colombian demographic transition, Gertler and Molyneaux (1994) assessed the contribution of contraceptives to the Indonesian fertility decline during the 1980s, and Levine et al. (1999) studied the impact of abortion legalization on fertility rates in the USA. Nonetheless, a few papers in the literature focus on the long-term consequences of abortion policies (Ananat et al. 2009;Donohue and Levitt 2001). ...
This study examines the extent to which banning women from having abortions affected the fertility of their children, who did not face a similar legal constraint. Using multiple censuses from Romania, I follow men and women born around the time Romania banned abortion in the mid-1960s to investigate the demand for children over their life cycle. The empirical approach combines elements of regression discontinuity design and the Heckman selection model. The results indicate that individuals whose mothers were affected by the ban had significantly lower demand for children than those who were not. One-third of the decline is explained by inherited socio-economic status.
... Additional social and economic factors, like lack of family planning health services, lack of women's rights, religious beliefs and agricultural-based economies are believed to pressure women to have more children (Bongaarts 1978;Galor and Weil 1999;Gertler and Molyneaux 1994;Mauldin, Berelson and Sykes 1978;Westoff, Moreno and Goldman 1989). These conditions contrast in an almost mirror-like fashion to societies that have successfully undergone the demographic transition, which are marked by low fertility and low mortality rates (Strulik and Vollmer 2013). ...
Fertility decline is an increasingly global phenomenon with many and profound social, economic and political implications. Previous research has established myriad determinants of fertility rates and, especially, their decline. Absent from these theoretical and empirical contributions is the role environmental concern has on fertility decisions. Relevant literatures of fertility and environmental sociology are reviewed. An online survey was administered through the crowdsourcing platform Amazon Mechanical Turk. Respondents were asked questions that gauged their awareness and concern of current environmental issues, as well as questions regarding lifestyle choices and fertility intentions. Through logistic regression analysis of childless people who aged between 18 and 49, this study examines the effect various measures of environmental concern has on intention to have a child. Results indicate that a question about societal moral responsibility to prevent wildlife extinctions is associated with fertility intentions. More specifically, the findings suggest that those who expressed concerns regarding wildlife extinctions are less likely to intend to have children. This study has a relatively small sample size which may have influenced the results. These findings suggest that future research could further explore the association between wildlife extinctions and fertility decisions.
... Women's education has been hypothesized to have an indirect effect on fertility decline through family planning, as increased education may affect fertility by increasing knowledge of family planning (Cochrane 1979) or by changing attitudes towards its acceptability (Cleland and Wilson 1987). Evidence of this indirect effect has been seen in Indonesia, where Gertler and Molyneaux (1994) found much of the effect of increased women's educational attainment on fertility decline in the 1980s was an indirect effect through contraceptive use. Figure 1 shows trends in the TFR, the percentage of women who have attained lower secondary education or higher, and the prevalence of modern contraceptive methods for Kenya and Nigeria from 1975-1980to 2010-2015. The decline in TFR from 1970 onwards has been faster in Kenya than in Nigeria. ...
Education and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing unmet need? Is education or family planning more important?
We assessed the quantitative impact of education and family planning in high‐fertility settings using a regression framework inspired by Granger causality. We found that women's attainment of lower secondary education is key to accelerating fertility decline and found an accelerating effect of contraceptive prevalence for modern methods. We found the impact of contraceptive prevalence to be substantially larger than that of education. These accelerating effects hold in sub‐Saharan Africa, but with smaller effect sizes there than elsewhere.
... It is clear that the G7 nations, experiencing these changes, historically, in a much earlier momentum, had far more time to evolve, gradually, their social support and health insurance coverage systems to meet the challenge [54]. However, in the emerging, rapidly developing nations, which, with the notable exception of the former Soviet Union [55], were largely non-industrialised countries, it happened much faster. ...
Background:
Accelerated globalisation has substantially contributed to the rise of emerging markets worldwide. The G7 and Emerging Markets Seven (EM7) behaved in significantly different macroeconomic ways before, during, and after the 2008 Global Crisis. Average real GDP growth rates remained substantially higher among the EM7, while unemployment rates changed their patterns after the crisis. Since 2017, however, approximately one half of the worldwide economic growth is attributable to the EM7, and only a quarter to the G7. This paper aims to analyse the association between the health spending and real GDP growth in the G7 and the EM7 countries.
Results:
In terms of GDP growth, the EM7 exhibited a higher degree of resilience during the 2008 crisis, compared to the G7. Unemployment in the G7 nations was rising significantly, compared to pre-recession levels, but, in the EM7, it remained traditionally high. In the G7, the austerity (measured as a percentage of GDP) significantly decreased the public health expenditure, even more so than in the EM7. Out-of-pocket health expenditure grew at a far more concerning pace in the EM7 compared to the G7 during the crisis, exposing the vulnerability of households living close to the poverty line. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the G7, real GDP growth had a positive impact on out-of-pocket expenditure, measured as a percentage of current health expenditure, expressed as a percentage of GDP (CHE). In the EM7, it negatively affected CHE, CHE per capita, and out-of-pocket expenditure per capita.
Conclusion:
The EM7 countries demonstrated stronger endurance, withstanding the consequences of the crisis as compared to the G7 economies. Evidence of this was most visible in real growth and unemployment rates, before, during and after the crisis. It influenced health spending patterns in both groups, although they tended to diverge instead of converge in several important areas.
... For example, the United States has a family planning program called Planned Parenthood. Family planning programs are not solely designed to meet government targets (Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994). Viewed from a medical perspective, this program actually has many benefits for the health of every family member. ...
This study is to find out family knowledge about family planning (KB) and mothers want to do family planning program, to increase family knowledge about the types of methods and contraception. This research is a type of research with a case study design by conducting studies aimed at an information-gathering technique that is done by compiling a list of questions. The results showed two problems in the family, which were found in mothers who had not had a family planning age of 31 years and the age of the last child of 5 months. After a systematic review is made in determining the priority of the problem, health education is needed by the mother and family. The husband advised the mother to use contraception and only use natural contraception methods.
... On the other hand, it has been argued that family planning programs have been highly effective through either providing easier access to contraception or propagating at advantages of smaller families and often a combination of both. These studies mostly pointed to Asian countries experiencing accelerated fertility declines in a short period, such as Bangladesh, Indonesia and Iran (Gertler & Molyneaux 1994;Carty et al. 1993;Cleland et al. 1994;Angeles et al. 2005;Erfani & McQuillan 2008). Of course, the two approaches of female education and family planning are not mutually exclusive and it has been argued that they actually reinforce each other (Bongaarts 2017;Lutz 2014). ...
Bangladesh, one of the world’s poorest countries, has experienced a dramatic fertility decline since 1985 with the TFR declining from 5.5 to 2.1. The reasons for this rapid decline have been controversially discussed by international researchers with some studies attributing it primarily to family planning programs others point at the simultaneously expanding female education and other socio-economic factors. In this study we try to comprehensively review the empirical evidence by merging the data of seven rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys from 1993 to 2014 and reconstruct cohort and period fertility trends by single years of age and level of educational attainment. Multilevel regression analyses applied to over 75,000 individual women shows that education is highly significant and negatively associated at both community and individual level while the indicator of family planning efforts (visits by family planning workers) is not associated with lower family size, except in the earliest period at the community level. We conclude that for the bulk of the strong fertility decline in Bangladesh increasing female education was likely the main driver both at individual level and through diffusion processes also at the community level.
... On the other hand, it has been argued that family planning programs have been highly effective through either providing easier access to contraception or propagating at advantages of smaller families and often a combination of both. These studies mostly pointed to Asian countries experiencing accelerated fertility declines in a short period, such as Bangladesh, Indonesia and Iran (Gertler & Molyneaux 1994;Carty et al. 1993;Cleland et al. 1994;Angeles et al. 2005;Erfani & McQuillan 2008). Of course, the two approaches of female education and family planning are not mutually exclusive and it has been argued that they actually reinforce each other (Bongaarts 2017;Lutz 2014). ...
Bangladesh, one of the world’s poorest countries, has experienced a dramatic fertility decline since 1985 with the TFR declining from 5.5 to 2.1. The reasons for this rapid decline have been controversially discussed by international researchers with some studies attributing it primarily to family planning programs others point at the simultaneously expanding female education and other socio-economic factors. In this study we try to comprehensively review the empirical evidence by merging the data of seven rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys from 1993 to 2014 and reconstruct cohort and period fertility trends by single years of age and level of educational attainment. Multilevel regression analyses applied to over 75,000 individual women shows that education is highly significant and negatively associated at both community and individual level while the indicator of family planning efforts (visits by family planning workers) is not associated with lower family size, except in the earliest period at the community level. We conclude that for the bulk of the strong fertility decline in Bangladesh increasing female education was likely the main driver both at individual level and through diffusion processes also at the community level.
... The use of contraception is increasing globally. Various studies show that when people are given good information and services relating to contraceptives, they want to use them 14 . Our analysis shows that, with the exception of Senegal, there are more women in the SSR who want to stop or delay childbearing but are not using contraception than there are current contraception users. ...
Governments worldwide must invest in girls’ education, family planning, agriculture and security in this vulnerable region.
... Access to the full range of contraceptive methods is a core component of sexual and reproductive health, as it is an important way for women to time pregnancies, retain control over their lives, and promote their economic well-being (Frejka, 2008;Presser, 2001;Sobotka, 2004). Typically, as economies expand, access to modern contraceptive methods and procedures also increases (Gakidou & Vayena, 2007;Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994). Women's status in society is another important factor in understanding family planning behavior (Do & Kurimoto, 2012). ...
To increase understanding of global variation in contraceptive use, we classify countries into “cultural zones” based on religious traditions and geographical regions. Using data for 156 countries, we model modern contraceptive use rates as a function of cultural zones, geographic regions, economic development, women’s education, and time. We find that cultural zones explain modern-method contraceptive use better than geographic regions alone, even when adjusting for economic development, women’s education, and time. We argue that practitioners and researchers should make use of cultural zones as a tool for understanding cross-national variation in sexual and reproductive health outcomes.
... Although evidence from a Zambian cash transfer finds no impact (Palermo et al., 2016), a Zambian voucher scheme subsidizing contraceptives increased contraceptive takeup, improved mental health and reduced births in the short term (Ashraf, Field and Lee, 2014;Ashraf, Buessing, Field and Leight, 2014). Additional studies find that contraception access decreases fertility in Tanzania (Angeles et al., 1998), Bangladesh (Phillips et al., 1982) and Colombia (Miller, 2010), but not in Ethiopia (Desai and Tarozzi, 2011) or Indonesia (Gertler and Molyneaux, 1994;Pitt et al., 1993). ...
Africa has higher rates of fertility than anywhere else, which limits the ability of a demographic transition to positively influence economic and socio-economic prospects on the continent. This research delves into the ineffective implementation of fertility limiting preferences. We develop a theoretical model formalising the various determinants of a woman's reproductive health behaviour during her reproductive years, focussing on choices related to effective contraception. The model incorporates the cyclicality and volatility of fecundity, paying particular attention to the stochastic nature of the reproduction process, as well as potential costs (such as lost wages and direct costs of purchase) and benefits (such as the ability to invest in her education and/or career) of being able to control or at least mitigate the volatility in the reproductive process. The model generates heterogeneity in the choice of contraceptive quality depending on both biological and economic factors. The nonparametic control function model, based on Malawian data, supports the notion that both biological and economic factors affect contraception decisions. The results suggest that fertility limiting preferences are being met, at least partially, in Malawi, and that the demographic transition is gaining traction. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies, all rights reserved.
... The fixed effect estimator has eliminated the constant characteristics of community from time-1 to time-2 (Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994;14 BLT was not given randomly to poor households. But there were some criteria of poor household that would receive the BLT. ...
One of the purposes of the unconditional cash transfer program (Bantuan Langsung Tunai/BLT) was to help the poor and near-poor households to fulfill their basic needs. This study attempted to identify the impact of the BLT on cigarette consumption in society; as it is well known that smoking has more disadvantages than benefits. The study used data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2000 and 2007 to capture the impact of the BLT on the cigarette consumption of households. By controlling for the characteristics of the respondents, and using the fixed effect at household and village level as an estimation technique, the empirical results showed that in general there was a changing pattern of cigarette consumption in Indonesian society, to which the BLT program has contributed. By influencing the savings of households, the BLT program has significantly decreased cigarette consumption in Indonesia. It could be explained by the permanent income hypothesis, where the BLT transfer can be categorized as a transitory income in that hypothesis. This study can be an input and consideration for the transfer policy’s implementation in Indonesia in particular.
... On the basis of the interview results with BKKBN officers, it is a fact that the Tenggerese people still want to have more children. It is contradictory with what Gertler and Molyneaux (1994) found in their study showing that recent changes in socio-economic variables played a much more im-portant role than those in family planning programme variables. This means that although the family planning programme has no significant impact, the socioeconomic status automatically decreases the preference to have more children. ...
... Our study would support that increased level of education may enhance dialogue, as evidenced by higher rates of joint-decisions concerning family size among those who attended further educa- tion. Improved levels of education may also positively influence income, in itself a determinant for smaller family sizes [12,13]. Family planning is an important issue for many developing countries, including Pakistan. ...
... Estimation is complicated by several factors. First, several studies provide strong evidence that health programs and facilities are often targeted to high need communities (e.g., Angeles, Guilkey, & Mroz, 1998;Gertler & Molyneaux, 1994;Pitt, Rosenzweig, & Gibbons, 1993;Rosenzweig & Wolpin, 1986). The statistical implication of this fact is that health facility variables, H, may be correlated with unobservable fixed characteristics of the communities, α. ...
Research in developing countries is rarely focused on examining how supply side factors affect family planning decisions due to a lack of facility-level data. When these data exist, analyses tend to focus on rural environments. In this paper, we study the effects that health facility access and quality have on contraceptive use and desired number of children for women in urban Senegal. Unlike related studies focusing on rural environments, we find no evidence that greater access to health facilities and pharmacies increases contraceptive use among urban women. However, we do find that contraceptive use among urban women is higher with greater facility quality. For example, we find that increasing the proportion of pharmacies employing multiple pharmacists from 0% to 50% would increase contraceptive use by 6.0 percentage points, and increasing the proportion of facilities with family planning guidelines/protocols from 50% to 100% would increase use by 2.1 percentage points.
... On the other hand, changes in Indonesia's political order was also mentioned in several paperworks [7][8][9] and also showed that fertility decline in Indonesia might be a result of combined socio-economic development of the families and institutional changes such as increasing age of marriage and women's schooling. [7][8][9][10][11][12] The turning point of Indonesia's fertility transition was marked during Suharto's era in 1967. Suharto's population policies in birth control, marriage law and compulsory education had forced the past Indonesian families to change. ...
Fertility in Indonesia has been falling significantly, from an average total fertility rate of 5.6 children per women in 1970s to 4.1 in 1980, and 2.6 in 2010. This paper attempts to explore which and how Suharto’s population policies have played role in Indonesia’s fertility decline. Whilst the adoption of modern contraceptive was perceived as the major determinant of fertility decline in Indonesia, changes in Indonesia’s political order and socio-economic development also contribute a considerable effect to Indonesians’ familial norms. The implementation of 9-year compulsory education had placed a strong foundation for the future Indonesian human capital and enabled women to obtain higher opportunities for schooling. Beside facilitates the diffusion of ideas among young people and opened up their perspective toward reproductive rights and self actualization, education also increases women’s opportunities to participate in laborforce. With the increasing roles outside the domestic sector, delaying age of marriage and limiting family size becomes a choice for women in contemporary Indonesia. The marriage act, however, was perceived as an accelerator rather than a predictor in increasing age of first marriage. Regardless the existence of the Marriage Law 1974, age of first marriage is likely to increase with increasing of education, although maybe in a slower rate.
... However, empirical evidence on the effectiveness of family planning interventions in developing countries is rather mixed. While some studies find a significant increase of contraceptive usage and a decline in fertility rates (e.g., Angeles et al., 1998;Sinha, 2005;Philips et al., 2006), other studies do not find any impact of family planning programs (e.g., Gertler and Molyneaux, 1994;Desai and Tarozzi, 2011). ...
This paper examines empirically whether midwives, as an integral part of the reproductive health and family planning programs in Indonesia, are effective in advising young women to delay their first birth and also influence the decision on post-primary school attendance. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey, I investigate the extent to which the expansion of a midwife program affects the age at first birth and the number of school years of women. My findings suggest that women who were exposed to a midwife when they have to decide on further school attendance (aged 13-20 years) delay their first birth and also stay longer in school. According to the average returns of education in Indonesia, I conclude that reproductive health services provided by midwives can generate large socioeconomic benefits by allowing young women to postpone their first birth. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Expansion in access to public infrastructure can have varied, microlevel impacts. In this paper, we use a discrete and quasi‐random change in the access to paved roads through a large‐scale rural road construction program in India to study how road access impacts fertility decisions and investments in child health. We find that increased access to paved roads at the district level decreases fertility, improves investments in children, and lowers infant mortality. We also provide evidence that highlights the mechanisms that drive this effect. First, we show that local roads improve access to health care facilities and raise immunization rates, which reduces infant mortality. Then, we demonstrate that last‐mile road connectivity has contrasting effects on employment across gender. Overall, the evidence suggests that rural roads can help accelerate demographic transition through their effects on fertility and infant mortality.
Purpose
This paper aims to unpack the nexus of development and demography controlling for three important variables to represent the meaning of development, that is, poverty rate, unemployment rate and human development index (HDI). Demographic variables are proxied with total fertility rate (TFR) and net migration rate (NMR).
Design/methodology/approach
This research applies cluster analysis at the provincial level using INDO-DAPOER and 2015 Intercensal Population Survey data sets.
Findings
Demographic and development status of Indonesian provinces can be classified into four clusters, and members of these clusters are mostly dissimilar with those of previous groupings on demographic dividends (Adioetomo, 2018). With only less than 50% matching rate, the author argues that there is no simple linear relationship between demographic and development variables.
Research limitations/implications
The most recent data set on Population Census Year 2020 has not been made available at the time of the writing. Also sometimes known as unsupervised classification, cluster analysis is about finding groups in a set of objects characterised only by certain measurements; therefore, findings of this study need to be positioned solely within the context of development and demography.
Practical implications
Taxonomy in this study offers a more nuanced and contextual understanding of the diverse challenges at the local and regional levels. Recommendations from this study lead to asymmetrical design in development policies and budget proportions at local levels.
Social implications
It is expected that the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues.
Originality/value
To the author’s understanding, this paper is the first to discuss the impact of “demographic dividend” to economic development in Indonesia using the approach of cluster analysis. The expected contribution of this work is twofold: Firstly, the author would like to ignite a discourse on the nexus of development and demography using the most recent data set and cutting-edge method. Secondly, the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues.
Every four years since 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus Center has organized and hosted a high profile thought experiment about how a hypothetical extra $75 billion of development assistance money might best be spent to solve twelve of the major crises facing the world today. Collated in this specially commissioned book, a group of more than 50 experts make their cases for investment, discussing how to combat problems ranging from armed conflicts, corruption and trade barriers, to natural disasters, hunger, education and climate change. For each case, 'Alternative Perspectives' are also included to provide a critique and make other suggestions for investment. In addition, a panel of senior economists, including four Nobel Laureates, rank the attractiveness of each policy proposal in terms of its anticipated cost-benefit ratio. This thought-provoking book opens up debate, encouraging readers to come up with their own rankings and decide which solutions are smarter than others.
Every four years since 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus Center has organized and hosted a high profile thought experiment about how a hypothetical extra $75 billion of development assistance money might best be spent to solve twelve of the major crises facing the world today. Collated in this specially commissioned book, a group of more than 50 experts make their cases for investment, discussing how to combat problems ranging from armed conflicts, corruption and trade barriers, to natural disasters, hunger, education and climate change. For each case, 'Alternative Perspectives' are also included to provide a critique and make other suggestions for investment. In addition, a panel of senior economists, including four Nobel Laureates, rank the attractiveness of each policy proposal in terms of its anticipated cost-benefit ratio. This thought-provoking book opens up debate, encouraging readers to come up with their own rankings and decide which solutions are smarter than others.
Every four years since 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus Center has organized and hosted a high profile thought experiment about how a hypothetical extra $75 billion of development assistance money might best be spent to solve twelve of the major crises facing the world today. Collated in this specially commissioned book, a group of more than 50 experts make their cases for investment, discussing how to combat problems ranging from armed conflicts, corruption and trade barriers, to natural disasters, hunger, education and climate change. For each case, 'Alternative Perspectives' are also included to provide a critique and make other suggestions for investment. In addition, a panel of senior economists, including four Nobel Laureates, rank the attractiveness of each policy proposal in terms of its anticipated cost-benefit ratio. This thought-provoking book opens up debate, encouraging readers to come up with their own rankings and decide which solutions are smarter than others.
Every four years since 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus Center has organized and hosted a high profile thought experiment about how a hypothetical extra $75 billion of development assistance money might best be spent to solve twelve of the major crises facing the world today. Collated in this specially commissioned book, a group of more than 50 experts make their cases for investment, discussing how to combat problems ranging from armed conflicts, corruption and trade barriers, to natural disasters, hunger, education and climate change. For each case, 'Alternative Perspectives' are also included to provide a critique and make other suggestions for investment. In addition, a panel of senior economists, including four Nobel Laureates, rank the attractiveness of each policy proposal in terms of its anticipated cost-benefit ratio. This thought-provoking book opens up debate, encouraging readers to come up with their own rankings and decide which solutions are smarter than others.
Every four years since 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus Center has organized and hosted a high profile thought experiment about how a hypothetical extra $75 billion of development assistance money might best be spent to solve twelve of the major crises facing the world today. Collated in this specially commissioned book, a group of more than 50 experts make their cases for investment, discussing how to combat problems ranging from armed conflicts, corruption and trade barriers, to natural disasters, hunger, education and climate change. For each case, 'Alternative Perspectives' are also included to provide a critique and make other suggestions for investment. In addition, a panel of senior economists, including four Nobel Laureates, rank the attractiveness of each policy proposal in terms of its anticipated cost-benefit ratio. This thought-provoking book opens up debate, encouraging readers to come up with their own rankings and decide which solutions are smarter than others.
Responsible parenting requires commitment, the right values, and a certain level of maturity to raise a family with a quality life. This research assesses the knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) on Responsible Parenthood and Family Planning (RPFP) among selected 4Ps beneficiaries (n=659) in the five provinces of the Caraga Region. The socio-demographic and economic profiles of the respondents were correlated to their KAP on RPFP using multiple regression analysis. Results showed that most respondents are in their prime working age, married, Cebuano, high school graduates, embracing Christianity, from rural areas, nurturing a nuclear family with an average monthly income of P7, 287 for a family of six. Further, respondents are highly knowledgeable on RPFP while moderately knowledgeable about modern natural and artificial Family Planning Methods (FPM). Interestingly, they show a positive attitude towards RPFP and FPM but very frequently practice the principles of RPFP and occasionally practice FPM. The number of children and the age when they first become pregnant negatively affect their understanding of natural family planning. Whether their socio-demographic and economic status influences their KAP on RPFP, different government agencies whose mandate includes development should continue addressing various population issues. The study recommends a multi-dimensional, integrated, and holistic approach to addressing the various concerns that can contribute to an increased KAP among 4Ps beneficiaries towards the RPFP.
We find that positive natural resource shocks lead to increased fertility in Indonesia by exploiting temporal variation in world oil prices and cross-sectional variation in oil endowments across regencies. Results are driven by women of all ages, by both first and higher order births, and we find no evidence of changes in birth spacing. Altogether, this indicates an increase in completed fertility. We present empirical evidence and cite prior literature demonstrating corresponding improvements in households’ economic outcomes, consistent with positive income effects on fertility in a developing economy.
This paper investigates whether lockdown policies aggravated mental health problems of older populations (50 and over) in Europe during the first COVID-19 wave. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE COVID-19 questionnaire) and from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for 17 countries, we estimate the causal effect of lockdown policies on mental health by combining cross-country variability in the strictness of the policies with cross-individual variability in face-to-face contacts prior to the pandemic. We find that lockdown policies worsened insomnia, anxiety, and depression by 5, 7.2 and 5.1 percentage points, respectively. This effect was stronger for women and those aged between 50 and 65. Interestingly, lockdown policies notably damaged the mental health of healthy populations. We close with a discussion of lockdown policies targeted at individuals above 65 and/or with pre-existing conditions.
Between 2016 and 2018, we observe in Uruguay a steep decline of almost 20 percent in the number of total births, leading to the collapse of the adolescent fertility rate after decades of relative stagnation. We estimate the quantitative contribution on birth rates, especially teen births, of a policy of expanded availability of subdermal contraceptive implants. We exploit the expansion schedule of a large‐scale policy of free‐of‐charge access to subdermal implants in the country's public health system through an event study to capture causal effects. We use detailed birth administrative records for the past 20 years. We document an average reduction of 3 percent in the birth rate in public health facilities across the two years after the policy was implemented in each department. These reductions were notably higher among teens and first births. Although changes in women's fertility decisions are a multicausal phenomenon, we claim that the expanded availability of subdermal contraceptive implants accounted for one‐third of the teen and young women's birth collapse.
This paper proposes a micro-based approach to investigate the impact of improved water provision on individual health outcomes in rural Uganda. We merge household and individual panel datasets with sub-county level administrative data on water supply projects. Our approach allows us to estimate fixed-effect panel data models which use temporal and spatial variation at the sub-county level as identifying variation. We find evidence that the installation of improved water sources leads to higher reported improved water usage, and shorter water collection times. However, increasing the sub-county rate of improved water sources per capita does not seem to be sufficient to lead to a statistically significant effect in the likelihood of individuals suffering from symptoms of illness associated with inadequate water supply. We argue that our micro-based approach provides a cost-effective means of evaluating development projects. The approach is scalable, i.e. it can be applied to other settings and countries.
This study used Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data and applied the fixed effect estimation method. This study showed that informal credit had a more negative impact on household welfare compared to the use of formal credit. In addition, the use of semi-formal credit caused a more negative impact on household welfare compared to the use of formal credit. It can be due to higher interest rates in the use of informal credit compared to semi-formal and formal credit. This study also indicated that credit used for productive purposes brought about a more positive impact than credit used for consumptive purposes. The higher the amount of credit used, the more positive the impact on household welfare is compared to the use of fewer loans. This research results can be the basis for the government to concern about the policy of credit interest rates to the public. Keywords: formal credit, semi-formal credit, informal credit, interest rate
Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household- and individual-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviors and outcomes. These responses may have important implications for human and economic development and women's empowerment. Drawing on the literature linking climate conditions to rice cultivation in Indonesia, we use longitudinal household survey and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing intentions, family planning use, and births following community-level climate shocks from 1993 to 2015. We find that fertility intentions increase and family planning use declines in response to delays in monsoon onset occurring within the previous year, particularly for wealthier populations. However, women on farms are significantly more likely to use family planning and less likely to give birth following abnormally high temperatures during the previous five years. We also measure parallel shifts in household well-being as measured by rice, food, and non-food consumption expenditures. Our findings advance the environmental fertility literature by showing that longer duration environmental shocks can have impacts on fertility behaviors and outcomes. Collectively, our results illustrate human fertility responses to climate change in a country vulnerable to its effects, and demonstrate that in some cases, climate shocks can constrain human fertility.
Every four years since 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus Center has organized and hosted a high profile thought experiment about how a hypothetical extra $75 billion of development assistance money might best be spent to solve twelve of the major crises facing the world today. Collated in this specially commissioned book, a group of more than 50 experts make their cases for investment, discussing how to combat problems ranging from armed conflicts, corruption and trade barriers, to natural disasters, hunger, education and climate change. For each case, 'Alternative Perspectives' are also included to provide a critique and make other suggestions for investment. In addition, a panel of senior economists, including four Nobel Laureates, rank the attractiveness of each policy proposal in terms of its anticipated cost-benefit ratio. This thought-provoking book opens up debate, encouraging readers to come up with their own rankings and decide which solutions are smarter than others.
El objetivo principal de este estudio es identificar la posible conexión entre la propuesta original de la teoría de la transición demográfica y otros paradigmas que explican los cambios en el comportamiento reproductivo de las poblaciones, aparecidos en la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Las principales conclusiones se refieren a las continuidades y rupturas en la trayectoria de las teorías escogidas en el estudio: transición de la fecundidad, teoría del costo beneficio de los hijos, modelo de los determinantes próximos de la fecundidad, teoría del flujo intergeneracional de riquezas y estudios de población con enfoque de género. Además, la discusión de los cambios entre paradigmas y distintas políticas de intervención en la fecundidad es otro foco de interés en este estudio.
During the apartheid era, all South Africans were formally classified as white, African, colored, or Asian. Starting in 1970, the government directly provided free family planning services to residents of townships and white-owned farms. Relative to African residents of other regions of the country, the share of African women that gave birth in these townships and white-owned farms declined by nearly one-third during the 1970s. Deferral of childbearing into the 1980s partially explains the decline, but lifetime fertility fell by one child per woman.
"The data used in this study are from the 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Survey (1989 BFS), which was conducted...by the National Institute of Population Research and Training (NIPORT)....A two-stage probability sample design was used for the survey.... It has been found that female age at marriage has a significant direct negative influence on fertility. Thus, raising the age at marriage by implementing a minimum-age marriage law is likely to lower fertility on a national scale. Duration of breast-feeding is also found to have a significant direct negative effect on fertility....Fetal loss appears to have a significant direct positive effect on fertility...which means that mothers who have experienced fetal loss are found to have higher fertility.... Maternal mortality is also high in Bangladesh. Therefore, it is essential to provide primary health care, particularly maternal and child health care, for surviving children."
This paper examines empirically whether midwifes, as an integral part of the health and family planning programs in Indonesia, are effective in advising young women to delay their first birth and also influence the decision on post-primary school attendance. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey, I investigate the extent to which the exogenous expansion of a midwife program affects the age at first birth and the number of school years of women. My findings suggest that women who were exposed to a midwife when they have to decide on further school attendance (age 13-20) delay their first birth and also stay longer in post-primary school. According to the average returns of education in Indonesia, I conclude that family planning services provided by midwifes can generate large socioeconomic benefits by allowing young women to postpone their first birth.
Summary Several recent papers have dealt with the problem of assessing the impact of the proximate determinants on fertility. All these approaches rely on combining a series of separately estimated aggregate level indicators. This paper proposes an approach which uses individual-level data and thus permits regression analyses as well as analyses for sub-groups. In the course of development it became clear that there are several deficiencies and inconsistencies in the measurement and formation of indices proposed elsewhere, which are overcome. We illustrate our approach with data from the Dominican Republic. The approach used involves attributing exposure to one or more of several states, including pregnancy, lactational and non-lactational components of post-partum amenorrhoea, absence of sexual relations and contraception. Key elements are efficacies of contraception and components of post-partum infecundity and the treatment of overlaps through an explicit hierarchy. We treat both unconditional (or additive) and conditional analyses. Intriguing findings on the age-specific pattern of fertility control emerge. Major advantages of regression analysis, such as simultaneous treatment of several variables and estimation of sampling variation are stressed.
Indonesia has achieved one of the most impressive records in fertility reduction over the past two decades. The country's total fertility rate has declined froman estimated 5.5 in 1967 - 1970 to 3.4 in 1987. Population growth has been estimated at 2.1 percent during the eighties. Many observers credit Indonesia's National Family Planning Coordinating Board (BKKBN) as being instrumental in this fertility reduction and slowdown of population growth. BKKBN is a public sector organization responsible for planning and coordination of almost all family planning activities in Indonesia. The study objective is to provide BKKBN and the government of Indonesia with data that can help improve the cost-effectiveness of family planning delivery. The study examines resource allocation, cost, funding institutions, and output of the program at grassroots level in selected regencies in three provinces: West Java, the Special District of Yogyakarta, and South Kalimantan. It is based on data about the program's field operations collected during November 1986 - March 1987, and routine service statistics of BKKBN.
A historical overview and descriptions of family planning programs in Indonesia are presented. 85 million of the 135 million inhabitants of the Indonesian archipelago are concentrated on the island of Java, which comprises about 7% of the Indonesian land mass. The Dutch colonial government preferred a policy ("transmigration") which advocated the redistribution of population from Java to the other islands to relieve overpopulation. This policy was also advocated by President Sukarno after the Indonesian Revolution of 1940. The need for family planning was recognized by small groups, and official policy supported national family planning programs to replace transmigration programs only after Sukarno became president in 1966. The focus of the program was on Java and Bali, the 2 most populous islands. Local clinics became the locus for birth control efforts. Fieldworkers affiliated with the clinics were given the job of advocating birth control use door-to-door. Fieldworkers "incentive programs," area "target" (quota) programs, and "special drives" were organized to create new contraceptive "acceptors." A data reporting system and a research program increase the effectiveness of the family planning drive by ascertaining trends in contraceptive use which can determine where and how money and effort can best be applied. "Village Contraception Distribution Centers" bring the contraceptive means closer to the people than do the clinics. Figures from the years 1969-1977 show the great increase in acceptance of contraceptives by the inhabitants of the Java-Bali area. Steps are now being taken to alleviate the large monthly variations in the number of (often temporary) acceptors caused by the "target programs" and "special drives." The average acceptor is 27-years-old, has 2.6 children, has not finished primary school, and has a husband of low social status. Bali has shown the greatest success in family planning. It is a small island with a highly developed system of local clinics. The strong community structures on Bali encourage birth control use. Bali, which is predominantly Hindi, is more receptive to the IUD than Java, which is predominantly Muslim. In East Java, the authoritarian bureaucracy makes efficient use of its money. Central Java is making slow but steady progress in family planning. In West Java, fieldworkers are teamed with paramedics; there, door-to-door contraceptive supply was more effective than the clinic system. In many areas traditional methods, i.e., herbs, massage, total abstinence for long periods of time, etc., were favored. More educated women often do not use contraceptives for fear of side effects. The need for family planning on the outer Indonesian islands is not as great, but programs are being set under way. These programs are the beginning of an attempt to alleviate problems that could be encountered if Indonesia's population growth continues unchecked.
The Indonesian family planning program has attained field success through implementation strategies centering on communities and clients. It seeks to make communities favorably disposed to family planning, persuade clients, provide adequate medical support, and maintain strong pressure for results. Quantitative data from 48 villages show that such strategies have been effective means of promoting and maintaining contraceptive use. The program now has problems in developing quantitative measures of its success, in balancing external influences on clients with free choice, in deciding how much pressure to exert on other government agencies, and in maintaining the commitment of local implementers. A question for the future is whether Indonesia will maintain the strong support it has shown for this program since 1970.
A set of recently released projections of the world population assumes a somewhat more rapid decline of fertility in the developing countries than has been anticipated by other forecasters, such as the United Nations. The paper examines the implications of these projections as to population size and growth rates at or around the year 2000, the nature of the arguments underlying the assumptions on fertility behavior during the coming decades, and the propositions concerning policy implications advanced by the authors of the projections. The methodology of analyzing the determinants of recent fertility declines is challenged as inappropriate for establishing causality. It is concluded that the expectation of a generalized and precipitous fertility decline in the developing world is unsubstantiated, as is the claim that family planning programs provide a ready policy tool for triggering and sustaining such a decline.
Two questions are posed: How much would fertility decline if unwanted births were prevented? How much would unwanted fertility decline if contraceptive practice improved? Data collected from eight developing countries in the Demographic and Health Surveys suggest that unless wanted fertility declines further, the opportunity to reduce total fertility is largely limited to the extent of unwanted fertility in a population. Even in a country like Peru, where a third of births are reported unwanted, the potential for reducing total fertility by increasing effective contraceptive use is very limited. Likewise the demographic potential of new contraceptive technology may be limited. The article develops a methodology appropriate for the general objective of determining the effect on fertility of improvements in contraceptive practice among those not wanting more births.
Indonesia is the world's fifth most populous nation. Its population is still growing at 2 per cent per annum and will exceed 200 million in another 10 years' time. This is the first detailed analysis of population growth in Indonesia as it affects national development, written by 4 authors who have been intimately involved in population research and planning in Indonesia over the past 15 years. The book takes an historical approach in recognition of the continuities between problems of population growth and distribution in colonial times, and those faced today. Because of the remarkable diversity of Indonesia, a regional approach is also stressed, and regional differences are highlighted through the skilful use of maps.
A framework for analyzing the relationship between intermediate fertility variables and fertility levels is presented. An intermediate fertility variable is defined as any behavioral or biological factor through which socioeconomic, cultural, or environmental variables affect fertility. A complete set of eight intermediate fertility variables is proposed, but it is shown that only four are important determinants of fertility differentials among populations: proportions married, contraception, induced abortion, and lactational infecundability. A simple model that allows quantitative estimation of the fertility effects of each of these four variables is outlined, and its application is illustrated.
Typescript. Thesis (Ph. D.)--George Washington University, 1986. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 138-146). Photocopy.
This paper is a macro-analysis of the correlates of fertility decline in developing countries for the period 1965-75, during which there was substantial fertility decline in Asia, quite a bit in the Americas, some in North Africa, and almost none in black Africa. The analysis focuses on how much of the fertility decline is associated with such socioeconomic variables as health, education, economic status, and urbanization, or with 'modernization' as a whole, and how much with population policies and programs, primarily family planning programs, designed to reduce rates of growth. The data are examined in a variety of ways: simple correlations among the variables; multiple regression analyses using both 1970 values of socioeconomic variables and, for the alternative lag theory, 1960 values; change in the socioeconomic variables over time; a special form of regression analysis called path analysis in which program effort is considered to be partly a function of socioeconomic level; a relatively new type of analysis called exploratory data analysis; relation of socioeconomic level and program efforts to both absolute and percentage declines in fertility; and cross-tabulations of program effort with an index of socioeconomic variables. Such data and analyses show that the level of 'modernization' as reflected by seven socioeconomic factors has a substantial relationship to fertility decline but also that family planning programs have a significant, independent effect over and above the effect of socioeconomic factors. The key finding probably is that the two - social setting and program effort - go together most effectively. Countries that rank well on socioeconomic variables and also make substantial program effort have on average much more fertility decline than do countries that have one or the other, and far more than those with neither. Finally, the relationship between predicted and observed CBR decline for the 94 developing countries over this period is illustrated for different combinations of factors; and an attempt is made to estimate the quantitative impact of the major conditions upon the intermediate variables traditionally assumed to account for CBR changes.
In the developing countries in recent years there has been a great expansion of public programs to provide modern means of fertility control. This paper is an effort to appraise the demographic impact of such programs through a comprehensive evaluation of the record. The paper briefly reviews the criticisms of such programs and the historical and comparative background before turning directly to issues of performance. After establishing the broad range of acceptance, the paper reviews the nature of acceptors and of fertility control methods as they affect overall impact. Then follow a series of tabulations and analyses of country performance by both social setting and program effort in an attempt to discern the effect of "modernization" and "family planning" in line with the current controversy over their relative importance. That detailed analysis is followed by an extensive review of 14 country cases, similarly organized, plus brief summaries of 15 major experiments/demonstrations in this field and one example of a developed country program. After a brief section on the alternatives to family planning programs, the paper concludes with a summary of major findings-underlined in the text-and the authors' personal commentary on their implications for both study and action.
In response to concerns about the adverse consequences of rapid population growth, family planning programs have been implemented in many developing countries. The aim of the present study is to assess the impact of this programmatic approach on long-range population growth. The result of a new and hypothetical population projection indicates that in the absence of family planning programs the population of the developing world could be expected to reach 14.6 billion in the year 2100 instead of the 10 billion that is currently projected by the World Bank. Despite the apparent success of existing interventions, fertility control is far from complete, as many women continue to bear unwanted births. To assess the impact of this unintended childbearing a second hypothetical projection is made. With perfect implementation of reproductive preferences, the population size of the developing world in 2100 would be reduced by an estimated 2.2 billion below the current projection. Further strengthening of family planning programs and improvements in birth control technology are therefore likely to provide important demographic benefits.
Using 1980 Census and 1986 service statistics program inputs, this paper evaluates the net correlation of socioeconomic, region, and program variables with 1987 contraceptive prevalence and method-specific use rates for Indonesian regencies and municipalities. The region variables--primarily, though not exclusively, reflecting program design and maturity--correlate most strongly with the contraceptive prevalence rates. Field-worker activities, field-worker supervisor activities, and community-based distributors also have a correlation with these rates. Pill use is highest in the areas that are predominantly Islamic and least developed, whereas the pattern is reversed for use of the IUD, condom, and other modern methods (mainly female sterilization). The findings are assessed in terms of their implications for policymaking.
Easterlin's synthesis of the behavioral and biological factors affecting fertility in developing countries has proven enormously influential. It has served perhaps most notably as the organizing framework for the National Academy of Sciences' report on fertility determinants (Bulatao and Lee, 1983) and continues to inform the thinking of demographers and economists. The framework consists of three central concepts. These are the demand for children (or for births); the potential supply of children, a product of exposure to the risk of conception and fecundity; and the monetary and psychic costs of contraception. Reproductive and contraceptive behavior are succinctly described: couples whose potential supply exceeds demand consider contraception, taking account of contraceptive costs in choosing among methods. The synthesis is at once simple and attractive. Of course, as a static or one-period model, Easterlin's framework cannot address many interesting dynamic issues. Nevertheless, it provides an integrated explanation for contraception and cumulative fertility over a reproductive lifetime, taking important constraints on childbearing into account. The notion of demand used in the Easterlin model is very much a hypothetical notion: it has to do with the number of children or births desired if the costs of contraception were entirely absent. Such a formulation leaves economists uneasy (Schultz, 1986). The demand for any good is poorly defined when its attributes or key prices are assumed away. But this particular confusion is unnecessary. It is a simple matter to collapse Easterlin's three categories into two: the demand for children, taking all costs into account, and a ceiling or constraint on childbearing. The payoff to refashioning the model lies in implications for empirical work. A body of literature in economics has examined the estimation of demand equations for goods in the presence of rationing constraints; a moment's thought shows the Easterlin model to be formally equivalent, with the "supply" equation of the model representing a ration or constraint on lifetime fertility. Fertility data for some individuals are drawn from the demand function; for others, who are supply constrained, the data are generated by the position of the constraint. These sorts of models are called "switching regressions" models in economics. This paper presents an application of the switching regressions methodology to World Fertility Survey (WFS) data. The aim here is primarily methodological. I use, as did Easterlin and Crimmins (1985), the WFS data from Sri Lanka and Colombia. These data are supplemented with micro-samples drawn from the 1971 Sri Lankan and 1973 Colombian censuses. The use of census data to construct measures of child survival addresses one of the key criticisms of the Easterlin-Crimmins work (Schultz, 1986). The paper is in four parts. The first part restates the Easterlin framework in terms of a single demand equation and a constraint. The second describes the econometric methodology appropriate for the problem. Results are presented in the third part, and the paper concludes in the fourth.
Estimates of contraceptive prevalence for the period 1977-1983 are presented for 73 less developed countries. Socioeconomic conditions are associated with much of the variance in prevalence, but organized family planning programs strengthened this association significantly. The average percent of couples in the reproductive ages practicing fertility regulation is 26, with the range from 4 to 55 percent between the low and high socioeconomic groups of countries, and from 7 to 59 percent between groups of countries with very weak (if any) to strong family planning program effort.
This paper evaluates the demographic impact of the Family Planning-Health Services Project in Matlab Thana of rural Bangladesh. The project was begun by the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh in October 1977. Contraceptive services--including pills, condoms, IUDs, sterilization, and injectables--are supplemented by oral rehydration, tetanus toxoid, and other services. About 33 percent of eligible couples are using contraception. Impact is evaluated by direct measurement of birth rates in the treatment and comparison areas. An overall fertility decline of about 25 percent is observed, concentrated among older women. The impact is two-to-three times that of an earlier project that included fewer methods and used lesser trained workers. The study shows that intensive family planning efforts can affect fertility in the absence of socioeconomic changes.
This paper examines the impact of access to health facilities and personnel on infant and child mortality in Indonesia. Demographic and Health Survey data are combined with village-level censuses of infrastructure collected by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Because the village-level data are available from two points in time, it is possible to analyse the effects on mortality risks within the village of changes in access to health care. Factors about villages that might affect both access to health care and mortality risks are held constant. Adding a maternity clinic to a village decreases the odds of infant mortality by almost 15 per cent, in comparison to the risk before the clinic was added. An additional doctor reduces the odds by about 1.7 per cent.
This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."
In Indonesia, nearly all women begin breastfeeding (BF); less than 4% of children are not breast fed. The median duration of BF is 17.3 months in urban areas, and 23.1 months in rural areas. An analysis of factors influencing the start and length of BF, based on data from the National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, reveals the importance of practices surrounding a traditional delivery on the continuation of BF. In Java, Bali, and Outer Islands I, women who deliver attended by a traditional birth attendant or who deliver at home are more likely to continue BF than women having a more "modern" delivery. Children born to a woman of higher age or parity are more likely to continue to be breast fed into the 2nd year. Factors measuring economic status and educational levels of parents are also inversely related to duration, but effects are less consistent across areas. Even though BF is widespread, and lasts a long time, the benefits of reduced morbidity and mortality, and delayed fertility that could be gained from BF, are probably diminished owing to practices of early feeding of children. The 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey is a 5-year follow-up to the 1976 World Fertility Survey and the 1983 Contraceptive Prevalence Study. The survey covered 20 provinces out of the 27 in Indonesia, excluding less than 7% of the total population. 2 questionnaires were used; household, and individual questionnaires. The impact of 12 independent variables on the start and length of BF is analyzed. 1) household economic level; 2) language; 3) place of delivery; 4) type of birth attendant; 5) mother's education; 6) mother's occupational experience; 7) spouse's education; 8) spouse's occupation; 9) mother's age at the time of birth; 10) parity; 11) child's sex; and 12) "wantedness" of pregnancy. Over 85% of urban children are born into high socioeconomic level households compared to 50% in rural areas. 35 to 40% of urban mothers and nearly 50% or more of urban spouses finish junior high school or a higher educational level. Approximately 10% of mothers and 20% of spouses in rural areas finish a junior high school educational level. Use of the national language (as opposed to local languages) is more frequent in urban areas. Nearly all infants born in the country are breast fed. author's modified
The authors "estimate proximate determinants of fertility in Indonesia from the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (1987 NICPS). For Java and Bali, the results will be compared to the 1976 Indonesia Fertility Survey's estimates of proximate determinants [to]....provide a better understanding of the causes of fertility decline in Java-Bali during 1976-1987." A theoretical model is used to estimate biological and behavioral proximate determinants of fertility, including marriage and divorce, infertility, postpartum amenorrhea, contraceptive use, induced abortion, fecundability and coital frequency, and fetal death. (SUMMARY IN IND)
Most estimates of the consequences of public programs rely on the cross-sectional association between region-specific programs and program outcomes. Such estimates assume that the spatial distribution of programs is random. This article reports estimates of the effects of public programs on basic human capital indicators and the biases in conventional cross-sectional estimates of program effects due to non-random program placement. The estimates are obtained from pooled observations on human capital outcomes, socioeconomic variables, and program coverage at the kecamatan (subdistrict) level. The observations are based on successive sets of Indonesian cross-sectional household and administrative data during 1976–86. The determinants of the spatial allocation of programs in Indonesia in 1976–86 are also estimated.
The empirical results indicate that the presence of grade and middle schools in villages has a significant positive effect on the school attendance rates of teenagers. The presence of health clinics in villages also positively affects the schooling of females ages 10–18. However, no evidence is found of any significant effects of the presence of family planning and health programs on either the survival rates of children or on cumulative fertility. The estimates also suggest that the use of cross-sectional data results in substantial biases in the estimates of program effects because of the evident nonrandom spatial allocation of public programs.
The predictive content of the quantity-quality model of fertility and the empirical information required for verification under a minimal set of restrictions on the utility function is described. It is demonstrated that commodity-independent compensated price effects must be known to infer the existence of the unobservable interdependent shadow prices of the model with a relatively weak structure improsed on preference orderings. A method of using multiple birth events to substitute for these exogenous prices is proposed and applied to household data from India.
A household time-allocative model which explicitly takes into account the economic contribution of children in agricultural areas of less-developed countries is applied to direct-level data pertaining to the rural population of India. Joint family decisions concerning fertility and the allocation of male and female child time to schooling and work activities are examined empirically in a simultaneous equations system. The properties of the formal model are used to derive inferences from the parameter estimates with respect to the shadow price configuration influencing these joint decisions.
Assessing Family Planning Cost-Effectiveness: Applicability of the Individual Demand-Program Supply Framework Unpublished documentModem Economic Growth and Fertility: Is Aggregate Evidence Credible? Unpublished documentThe Family Planning Program as a Model of Administrative Improvement in Indonesia
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___. 1990. "Assessing Family Planning Cost-Effectiveness: Applicability of the Individual Demand-Program Supply Framework." Unpublished document, Department of Economics, Yale University. ___. 1992. "Modem Economic Growth and Fertility: Is Aggregate Evidence Credible?" Unpublished document, Department of Economics, Yale University. Snodgrass, D. 1979. "The Family Planning Program as a Model of Administrative Improvement in Indonesia." Development Discussion Paper 58, Institute for International Development, Harvard University.
1378) (0.0768) (0.1826) (0.1718) FP Fieldworkersll ,000 Pop. 0.0135 -0.1161** -0.0414 0.1974 (0.0961) (0.0528) (0.1334) (0.1325) # Prim. Sch.!I,OOO Pop
- Ooo
- Pop
** 0.1314* 0.0749 -0.0189 (0.1378) (0.0768) (0.1826) (0.1718) FP Fieldworkersll,000 Pop. 0.0135 -0.1161** -0.0414 0.1974 (0.0961) (0.0528) (0.1334) (0.1325) # Prim. Sch.!I,OOO Pop. -0.0851** -0.0322 0.0290 0.0156 (0.0372) (0.0201) (0.0501) (0.0489) # Ir. High Sch.!I,OOO Pop.
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Regression Analysis of Area Data
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The Family Planning Program as a Model of Administrative Improvement in Indonesia
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Indonesia: Strategy for a Sustained Reduction in Poverty
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