Content uploaded by Xuan Liu
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Xuan Liu on Nov 06, 2023
Content may be subject to copyright.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
nature ecology & evolution
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1Article
Meta-analysis reveals less sensitivity of
non-native animals than natives to extreme
weather worldwide
Shimin Gu 1,4, Tianyi Qi 1,2,4, Jason R. Rohr 3 & Xuan Liu 1,2
Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells,
storms, oods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two
major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency
and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel
mixed-eects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187
non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater
and marine ecosystems to dierent types of EWE. Our results show that
marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are
overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative eects of heatwaves on
native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater
non-native animals are only adversely aected by heatwaves and storms,
respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves,
cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable
to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average,
non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and
decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems,
whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history
traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and
community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with
high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also
provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely aected by
their joint eects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or
spread of non-native species under continuing global change.
Climate change and invasive species are two major threats to global
biodiversity
1,2
. Understanding how climate change influences inva-
sions of non-native species is crucial for mitigating their joint impacts
in the context of accelerating global change
3
. In addition to gradual
shifts in temperature and precipitation, scientists have recognized that
the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events
(EWEs), such as heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts4,
can result in even greater biological consequences than changes to
climate means
5
. Comparison of the responses of native and non-native
species to EWEs is crucial for developing early and effective strategies
for native species conservation and non-native species prevention
under accelerating EWEs associated with climate change6.
Considerable evidence from native species has shown that EWEs
can cause declines in population abundances and species richness,
Received: 16 March 2023
Accepted: 21 September 2023
Published online: xx xx xxxx
Check for updates
1Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 2University of Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 3Department of Biological Sciences, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN,
USA. 4These authors contributed equally: Shimin Gu, Tianyi Qi. e-mail: liuxuan@ioz.ac.cn
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
Sevastopol Bay
26
. Non-native species showed less susceptibility and
recovered more quickly than native species in the marine epibenthic
fouling community of Bodega Harbor, California, USA
27
. Despite these
striking case studies, a thorough understanding of the general effect
of EWEs on non-native and native species across ecosystems, types of
EWE and multiple taxonomic groups is still lacking, impeding forecasts
of the responses of non-native species to climate change and their
joint impacts on native species. It is critical to fill this literature gap
because resources for managing and mitigating biological invasions
and climate change are limited. Thus, it is crucial to identify the most
affected regions and problematic taxa so that those resources are
targeted properly.
Here we applied a multilevel mixed-effects metaregression to
conduct a global synthesis of non-native and native animal responses
to EWEs (Supplementary Fig. 1). These species spanned terrestrial,
freshwater (mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, fish and inverte-
brates) and marine ecosystems (surface and benthic fishes and benthic
invertebrates). Each measured effect size was assigned to one of eight
major response categories: physiology, body condition, behaviour,
restructure community composition and limit post-event recovery
across ecosystems
7–13
. However, published studies also found that
non-native arthropods, mammals, shellfishes and fishes might be
relatively tolerant of, or even respond positively to EWEs
14–17
. There
are several possible mechanisms to explain different responses of
non-native and native species to EWEs
18
. First, EWEs often result in
considerable mortality of native species and could thus create more
vacant niches to facilitate non-native species invasions19,20. For exam-
ple, severe drought events decreased native invertebrates and fishes by
increasing water salinity, facilitating the establishment of non-native
salt-tolerant counterparts
14,15
. Second, invaders can have more rapid
growth rates, stronger competitive abilities, higher phenotypic plastic-
ity, broader tolerance of disturbance and quicker recovery and prolif-
eration than natives
21–24
. For example, the abundance of most native
fish in the Rio Minho estuary, Portugal, declined but abundance of
non-native fish increased after extreme droughts and floods, and thus
the fish assemblage there was dominated by a few invasive fish species
after extreme weather events25. Non-native mesozooplankton species
exhibit higher flexibility to marine heatwaves than native species in the
84
Number of studies
47
31
24 21
74
32 47
76
Number of sample
eect sizes
0
100
300
500
0
500
1,500
Number of sample
eect sizes
129
Heatwave
Cold spell
Storm
Flood
Drought
EWEs
a
b
c
d
e
Amphibia
Anthozoa
Ascidiacea
Aves
Bivalvia
Branchiopoda
Clitellata
Euchelicerata
Gastropoda
Gymnolaemata
Insecta
Malacostraca
Mammalia
Maxillopoda
Polychaeta
Reptilia
Teleostei
Proportion of sample
eect sizes (%)
0
5
15
25
35 Non-native
Native
Fig. 1 | Distribution of non-native and native species under EWEs from
443 studies. a–e, Point colours indicate different types of EWE in 235 locations
for non-native species (a) and 394 locations for native species (b). The bar chart
shows the number of effect sizes for different EWE groups of non-native (c) and
native species (d), and the proportions of sample effect sizes across taxa (e).
Animal silhouettes in e were obtained from PhyloPic (www.phylopic.org).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
life history traits, abundance, distribution, community structure and
recovery after EWEs. Our analyses covered five main types of EWEs:
heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts. Furthermore,
on the basis of the results of our meta-analyses, we quantified the
spatial overlap between the distributions of EWE-tolerant non-native
species and the EWE hotspots. These overlap analyses should identify
locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by the
joint effects of non-native species and EWEs, and where EWEs might
facilitate the future establishment and/or spread of non-native species.
Results
Overall EWE distributions
Across the globe, there were a total of 973 measured effect sizes from
177 peer-reviewed studies across 187 non-native species and 4,330
measured effect sizes from 335 peer-reviewed studies across 1,852
native species (Supplementary Fig. 1). These reported studies on the
effects of EWEs on animals were mainly distributed in North America
and Europe, and sporadically distributed in South America, southern
Africa, East Asia and southeast Australia (Fig. 1a,b). Eighty four per-
cent of studies on non-native species (149/177) and 95% of studies on
native species (317/335) focused on responses to only one type of EWE
(Fig. 1c,d and Supplementary Data 1). Overall, our analyses included
effect sizes of EWEs on non-native animals and native animals span-
ning 6, 7 and 10 classes of terrestrial, freshwater and marine organ-
isms, respectively (Fig. 1e) and three orders of magnitude in body size
(for example, smallest mean body size, Insecta: 0.81 ± 0.22 mm; largest
Mammalia: 1,531.33 ± 211.00 mm).
Species can differ in their exposure to EWEs that may influence
selection for EWE tolerance. We assessed exposure differences by
comparing the average magnitude of the EWEs within the geographic
ranges of each native and non-native species in our database. We
found limited evidence that non-native and native species experi-
ence significantly different magnitudes of EWE exposures (Sup-
plementary Fig. 2). We also found little evidence in our samples that
ecosystem types differed significantly in their magnitudes of EWEs
(Supplementary Fig. 2), except that oceans have more days of heat-
waves and cold spells than terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
(Supplementary Fig. 2).
Responses of non-native and native animals to EWEs
Overall, we found that non-native species had 24.8% positive, 31.8%
negative and 43.4% neutral responses (confidence intervals (CIs) cross-
ing zero) to EWEs. Native species had 12.7% positive, 20.5% negative
and 66.8% neutral responses to EWEs. Both non-native and native
species exhibited positive, negative and neutral responses to each
type of EWE (Fig. 2). Further multilevel mixed-effects metaregression
models showed that non-native species only responded negatively
to heatwaves in terrestrial ecosystems, whereas native species were
adversely affected by heatwaves, cold spells and droughts (Fig. 3a). In
freshwater ecosystems, non-native species only responded negatively
to storms, but native species responded negatively to heatwaves,
storms, floods and droughts. We even observed positive effects of
heatwaves and cold spells on freshwater non-native species (Fig. 3b).
Marine animal species overall were insensitive to EWEs, regardless
of whether they were non-native or native (Fig. 3c). Egger’s test indi-
cated limited evidence for publication bias associated with the overall
responses of non-native and native animals to EWEs (Supplementary
Table 1). In addition, the omnibus Wald-type test showed a good fit of
the model to the data (Supplementary Table 4). Hence, the greater
tolerance of non-native animals than natives to EWEs does not appear
to be artefactual.
To assess whether the responses of non-native and native species
were dependent on certain taxa or biogeographic realms (Nearctic,
Neotropic, Palaearctic, Indomalayan, Afrotropic and Australasian
in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems; Agulhas, Cold Temperate
Northeast Pacific, Lusitanian, Northern European Seas, Tropical North-
western Atlantic, Warm Temperate Northeast Pacific and Warm Tem-
perate Northwest Atlantic in marine ecosystems), we reconducted the
analyses above including taxonomic group and realm as independent
variables interacting with non-native/native status (Supplementary
Figs. 3 and 4). Analyses across taxonomic groups (Supplementary
Fig. 3) and biogeographic realms (Supplementary Fig. 4) produced sim-
ilar results as the overall analyses. One insight revealed from this sepa-
rate analysis was that the negative response of terrestrial non-native
animals to heatwaves was only a product of the sensitivity of non-native
insects (mean effect size: −1.188, P < 0.001, Supplementar y Fig. 3).
Among response variables, in terrestrial ecosystems, EWEs only
had negative effects on abundance of non-native species, but adversely
affected body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution
and post-event recovery of native species (Fig. 4a). In freshwater eco-
systems, EWEs had negative effects on body condition and life history
traits of non-native species, and on community structure of native
species (Fig. 4b). Across terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, we did
not observe negative effects of EWEs on the distribution, abundance
(except terrestrial insects: mean effect size −0.844, P = 0.004), commu-
nity structure or recovery of non-native animals (Fig. 4a,b), which thus
appear to maintain population stability and community structure dur-
ing and after EWEs. We even observed a positive response of non-native
species’ physiology, behaviour and recover y to EWEs in terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems (Fig. 4a,b). In marine ecosystems, non-native
species presented overall positive responses to EWEs except for body
condition and life history traits (Fig. 4c).
Overlap between non-native species and EWEs
We further conducted spatial overlap analyses between EWE hotspots
and suitable habitat for non-native animals to identify where native spe-
cies might be particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of EWEs
and non-native species. To do so, we first applied species distribution
modelling to predict those grids with suitable areas for establishment of
non-native animals and overlaid these grids with maps of EWE hotspots
(see more details in Supplementary Methods). We then calculated the
net effect of each non-native animal to EWEs in each overlapped grid
as the proportions of positive plus neutral responses minus negative
response on the basis of the sample effect sizes in the meta-analyses.
The accumulative net effect for each grid was obtained to reflect the
overall tolerance of all potential non-native species to EWEs.
Our analyses show that overlapping areas of highly EWE-tolerant
non-native species and EWEs hotspots are generally distributed in
mid-to-high latitudes, but these patterns did depend on EWE type. For
heatwaves, overlapping areas were mainly distributed in mid-latitude
regions, including west and east-southern United States, southern
Brazil, southern Mediterranean, South Africa, east-southern Asia,
south Australia, New Zealand, west-northern coast and islands in
the Indian Ocean, and west coast and islands in the Pacific Ocean
(Fig. 5a). For cold spells, overlapping areas were mainly distributed in
high-latitude regions, including northern areas of the United States
and Canada, southern Argentina, northern Europe, western coastal
regions of Australia, east coast of the North Atlantic Ocean, south
coast of the Baltic Sea and east coast of the Arctic Ocean (Fig. 5b). For
storms, overlapping areas were sporadically distributed from low to
high latitudes, including Latin America, India, high-latitude European
countries (that is, the United Kingdom and Norway), south-western
and north-eastern Australia, Northern Atlantic Ocean and the west
coast of the Pacific Ocean (Fig. 5c). For floods and droughts, overlap-
ping areas were distributed in mid latitudes of the Mediterranean
region, mid-Asia, southern Australia, and East and Southeast Asia.
In South America, overlap was associated with floods in western
Amazon and southern Brazil but with droughts in northern Amazon
and southern Argentina. In Africa, overlap coincided with floods in
the middle of Africa but with droughts in northern Africa (Fig. 5d,e).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
Heatwave events
a
b
c
Cold-spell events Storm events Flood events
−40
−20
0
20
40
−100
−300
−200
1 187
−60
−40
−20
0
1 109
−20
−10
0
10
1 80
0
5
10
1 22
−50
−10
30
−120
−80
1 233
−10
−5
0
5
1 437
−20
−10
0
10
1 866
−10
0
10
1 108
−40
−20
0
20
40
−1,700
−1,200
1 121
−4
16
−1,000
−500
1 16
−10
0
10
1 43
Drought events
−20
−10
0
10
20
−60
−40
−200
−100
−600
−400
1 52
2,000
6,000
−20
0
20
−1,000
−500
1 301
−30
−20
−10
0
10
20
30
−1,200
−700
1 33
−20
−10
0
−60
−40
1 286
−10
0
10
−1,800
−800
1 345
−5
0
5
10
1 63
−15
−10
−5
0
5
1 459
−20
−10
0
10
20
30
−430
−230
1 140
−10
0
10
1 55
0
20
40
1 50
−20
0
20
40
1 207
190
390
85
125
−35
−15
5
25
1 76
−20
−10
0
10
20
1 676
Number of sample eect sizes
Number of sample eect sizes
Number of sample eect sizes
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0.0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0.0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
0
0.4
0.8
Sample eect sizes
for non-natives
Sample eect sizes
for non-natives
Sample eect sizes
for natives
Sample eect sizes
for natives
Sample eect sizes
for non-natives
Sample eect sizes
for natives
Terrestrial ecosystemFreshwater ecosystemMarine ecosystem
Fig. 2 | Sample effect sizes of non-native and native species in responding to
EWEs. a–c, Sample effect sizes in terrestrial (a), freshwater (b) and marine (c)
ecosystems. The horizontal dashed lines represent the position where the sample
effect size is zero. The heights of barplots are relative proportions of positive
(blue), negative (pink) and neutral (grey) (CIs crossing zero) effect sizes, and were
standardized, ranging from 0 to 1.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
Non-native × heatwave (24; 140)
Native × heatwave (21; 207)
Non-native × cold-spell (9; 55)
Native × cold-spell (7; 76)
Non-native × storm (7; 50)
Native × storm (24; 676)
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Hedges’ d (95% confidence interval)
Non-native × heatwave (27; 121)
Native × heatwave (26; 301)
Non-native × cold-spell (4; 16)
Native × cold-spell (6; 33)
Non-native × storm (7; 43)
Native × storm (22; 286)
Non-native × flood (20; 63)
Native × flood (38; 459)
Non-native × drought (14; 52)
Native × drought (41; 345)
Non-native × heatwave (35; 187)
a
b
c
Native × heatwave (28; 233)
Non-native × cold-spell (29; 109)
Native × cold-spell (19; 437)
Non-native × storm (18; 80)
Native × storm (86; 866)
Non-native × drought (7; 22)
Native × drought (34; 108)
Terrestrial ecosystemFreshwater ecosystemMarine ecosystem
*
***
NS
**
***
**
NS
NS
***
NS
***
NS
Fig. 3 | A comparison of non-native (circle) and native species (triangle)
responses to five different types of EWE. a–c, Effect sizes (Hedges’ d) for non-
native and native species’ responses to heatwave, cold-spell, storm, flood and
drought events in terrestrial (a), freshwater (b) and marine (c) environments,
estimated from metafor. Error bars are 95% CIs. A Wald-type test was used to
detect whether a mean effect size estimate was significant when the 95% CI did
not encompass zero. In a, P values of non-native species responses to EWEs
were: heatwave (0.0001), cold spell (0.004), storm (0.298) and drought (0.763);
P values of native species responses to EWEs were: heatwave (<0.0001), cold
spell (<0.0001), storm (0.079) and drought (<0.0001). In b, P values of non-
native species responses to EWEs were: heatwave (0.0002), cold spell (0.002),
storm (0.027), flood (0.842) and drought (0.698); P values of native species
responses to EWEs were: heatwave (0.042), cold spell (0.635), storm (0.023),
flood (0.032) and drought (0.011). In c, P values of non-native species responses
to EWEs were: heatwave (0.592), cold spell (0.079) and storm (0.001); P values
of native species responses to EWEs were: heatwave (0.442), cold spell (0.856)
and storm (0.132). Numbers in parentheses represent the number of studies
and measured effect sizes, respectively. Blue, significantly positive mean effect
sizes; pink, significantly negative mean effect sizes; grey, non-significant mean
effect sizes. The asterisks and ‘NS’ indicate significant and non-significant
differences, respectively, between non-native and native species to the particular
EWE; *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001, performed using an omnibus test
(Supplementary Table 2). Multiple comparisons were not performed in data
analyses. The two-sided P value was used to judge significance.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
Our results were robust to different criteria used to define overlap hot
-
spots (Supplementary Fig. 5, see details in Supplementary Methods).
Discussion
The present study provided a comparative evaluation of the responses
of non-native and native animals to historical EWEs across taxa and
ecosystems at the global scale. Although there were both ‘winners’
and ‘losers’ across both non-native and native species and ecosys-
tems (Fig. 2), proportionally there were more positive responses of
non-native than native animals to EWEs, making the mean response to
EWEs less negative for non-native than for native species. Our further
meta-analyses that controlled for spatial and taxonomic pseudorep-
lication generally showed that non-native species are less sensitive to
most EWEs than their native counterparts, especially in terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems. This high tolerance of non-native species to
EWEs compared with native species particularly represented a strong
capacity of non-native species to maintain population stability after
EWEs across ecosystems. We found limited evidence of publication
bias associated with the overall responses of non-native and native
animals to EWEs. However, there was detectable publication bias for
non-native animal responses to terrestrial cold spells, and for native
animal responses to terrestrial heatwaves and cold spells, and fresh-
water floods and droughts (Supplementary Table 1), which is a com-
mon phenomenon in meta-analyses when disciplines are partial to
studying certain effects28.
There are several possible explanations for why non-native animals
tend to be less sensitive to most EWEs than native species within the
same taxonomic class. First, many non-native species exhibit rapid
growth rates, long spawning seasons, short longevities, high competi-
tive abilities, rapid population recolonization and trophic preference
for detritus that could help them take advantage of limited resources
and maintain population sizes during and after EWEs
18,29,30
. Non-native
species also often have higher plasticity than native species18,31,32. For
example, the abundance of the invasive South American tomato pin-
worm was tolerant of acute and chronic temperature stress because
of high thermal plasticity in invaded ranges33. As another example, an
invasive prawn showed higher plasticity of upper thermal limits than
native prawns and was thus less vulnerable to extreme thermal events34.
Finally, the high propagule pressure and meta-population structure
(that is, connectivity) of many non-native species
35
often make their
populations more resilient to the adverse effects of EWEs than native
species
18,36
. Indeed, population-level response variables of non-native
species, such as their abundance, distribution and recovery, were gen-
erally insensitive to EWEs (Fig. 4). Nevertheless, we also observed some
negative responses of terrestrial non-native animals to heatwaves,
particularly for Insecta (Fig. 3 and Supplementary Fig. 3). Additional
analyses further showed that heatwaves could negatively impact insect
body size, development time, growth rate, longevity, reproduction
and survival rate (Supplementary Table 5). These findings support a
previous insect study revealing that life history plasticity was weak in
insect responses to extreme temperatures37.
Freshwater non-native animals responded positively to heat-
waves and cold spells, consistent with some previous studies on fresh-
water crustaceans
38
and mussels
39,40
. Given that 90.8% (109/120) of
non-native freshwater animals in heatwave studies are warm-adapted
and cold-adapted fishes and invertebrates (including Bivalvia, Gas-
tropoda and Malacostraca) introduced through aquaculture (Supple-
mentary Data 1)
41
, one potential explanation for the positive response
of freshwater non-native animals to heatwaves and cold spells is eco-
logical memory theory42. This theory predicts that adaptations to
environmental change are positively related to the past disturbance
events experienced by a species
43,44
. Future studies should test whether
native species exposed to more severe historical EWEs are indeed more
tolerant of EWEs.
Terrestrial ecosystem
aFreshwater ecosystem
bMarine ecosystem
c
Physiology (13; 42)
Physiology (10; 81)
Body condition (9; 34)
Body condition (17; 61)
Behaviour (8; 38)
Behaviour (11; 31)
Life history traits (32; 203)
Life history traits (59; 244)
Abundance (26; 51)
Abundance (74; 932)
Distribution (8; 11)
Distribution (12; 21)
Recovery (5; 32)
Recovery (27; 379)
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Hedges’ d (95% confidence interval)
Physiology (6; 33)
Physiology (8; 73)
Body condition (10; 24)
Body condition (13; 145)
Behaviour (8; 20)
Behaviour (13; 59)
Life history traits (15; 37)
Life history traits (14; 37)
Abundance (35; 133)
Abundance (72; 708)
Community structure (9; 19)
Community structure (45; 105)
Recovery (6; 20)
Recovery (18; 302)
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Hedges’ d (95% confidence interval)
Physiology (10; 41)
Physiology (11; 126)
Body condition (6; 25)
Body condition (5; 14)
Behaviour (4; 19)
Behaviour (5; 33)
Life history traits (17; 62)
Life history traits (15; 103)
Abundance (18; 71)
Abundance (31; 481)
Recovery (5; 24)
Recovery (12; 218)
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Hedges’ d (95% confidence interval)
**
***
NS
***
***
NS
***
NS
*
*
**
NS
*
**
*
***
NS
***
**
***
Non-native Native
Fig. 4 | A comparison of non-native (circle) and native (triangle) species
responses to EWEs for eight response variables. a–c, Effect sizes (Hedges’
d) for the non-native and native species responding to EWEs in terrestrial (a),
freshwater (b) and marine (c) ecosystems, estimated from metafor. Error
bars are 95% CIs. A Wald-type test was used to detect whether a mean effect
size estimate was significant when the 95% CI did not encompass zero. In a,
P values of non-native species response variables to EWEs were: physiology
(<0.0001), body condition (<0.0001), behaviour (<0.0001), life history traits
(<0.0001), abundance (0.0003), distribution (0.597) and recovery (<0.0001);
P values of native species response variables to EWEs were: physiology (0.854),
body condition (<0.0001), behaviour (<0.0001), life history traits (<0.0001),
abundance (<0.0001), distribution (0.003) and recovery (<0.0001). In b, P values
of non-native species response variables to EWEs were: physiology (0.026),
body condition (0.0004), behaviour (<0.0001), life history traits (<0.0001),
abundance (0.630), community structure (0.839) and recovery (0.021); P values
of native species response variables to EWEs were: physiology (<0.0001), body
condition (0.0004), behaviour (0.882), life history traits (0.337), abundance
(0.224), community structure (<0.0001) and recovery (0.463). In c, P values of
non-native species response variables to EWEs were: physiology (0.003), body
condition (0.003), behaviour (0.011), life history traits (0.005), abundance
(0.0005) and recovery (<0.0001); P values of native species response variables
to EWEs were: physiology (0.009), body condition (0.487), behaviour (0.003),
life history traits (0.143), abundance (0.950) and recovery (0.690). Numbers
in parentheses represent the number of studies and measured effect sizes,
respectively. Blue, significantly positive mean effect sizes; pink, significantly
negative mean effect sizes; grey, non-signif icant mean effect sizes. The asterisks
and ‘NS’ indicate significant and non-significant differences, respectively,
between non-native and native species in their responses to EWEs; *P < 0.05,
**P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001, performed using an omnibus test (Supplementary Table 3).
Multiple comparisons were not performed in data analyses. The two-sided
P value was used to judge significance.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
Interestingly, in contrast to terrestrial and freshwater species,
both non-native and native marine species were insensitive to EWEs.
Importantly, this finding was not a product of the lower magnitude of
EWEs in marine than in terrestrial and freshwater environments, as we
observed few differences in the magnitude of EWEs among ecosystem
types within the geographic ranges of each native and non-native
species in our meta-analysis (Supplementary Fig. 2). The only differ-
ence we did observe suggested that oceans had significantly more
days experiencing heatwaves and cold spells than terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems (Supplementary Fig. 2). The tolerance of
non-native marine species to EWEs supports previous findings that
marine invaders were generally insensitive to ocean heatwaves
26,27
,
cold spells
45,46
and storms
16,47
. For instance, non-native bryozoans and
crustaceans maintained their community composition and popula-
tion abundance, respectively, in response to marine heatwaves
26,27
.
In contrast, it has been reported extensively that marine heatwaves
are pervasive stressors to native ocean species, especially anemones
and corals (Anthozoa)
7,48
. Indeed, we observed a negative response
of native Anthozoa to marine heatwaves (mean effect size −1.632,
P < 0.001), consistent with past studies
7,48
. In addition, our results
support a recent review on the negative response of benthic inver-
tebrates (that is, Bivalvia) to marine heatwaves (mean effect size
−0.869, P = 0.028), which was possibly due to their limited abilities
to disperse to more suitable habitats7. Regarding the insensitivity of
marine native and non-native species to cold spells, Maxillopoda and
Polychaeta dominated the effect sizes for this test and the literature
reports that these taxa tend to be cold-adapted species and thus
have high performance at low temperatures
45,46
. Finally, we found
that marine non-native and native species were also insensitive to
storm events. Teleostei and Bivalvia dominated the effect sizes for
this test. Our finding is consistent with previous studies that showed
that fishes and Bivalvia were insensitive to storms, possibly because
they are either mobile enough
49
or use ocean currents
50
to seek refuge
during storms, respectively.
Our global analysis of spatial overlap between non-native species
and EWE hotspots identified several vulnerable areas in mid-to-high
latitudes including North America, Europe, Oceania, temperate
Asia inland, East and Southeast Asia, South America and Africa and
marine regions in low-to-mid latitude areas of the Atlantic Ocean,
west-northern coast of the Indian Ocean, south coast of the Baltic
Sea, east coast of the Arctic Ocean and west coast of the Pacific Ocean
where native species might face joint impacts of invasive species and
EWEs. Although the invasion hotspots we identified were only based
on habitat suitability for establishment, we found that these predicted
hotspots have also been reported as areas with frequent non-native spe-
cies introductions35,51, which imply a potentially high overall invasion
dc
b
a
e
Cumulative net eect of
EWEs on non-native species
13.9
0
–3.2
Cumulative net eect of
EWEs on non-native species
5.2
0
–6.9
Cumulative net eect of
EWEs on non-native species
19.3
0
–2.0
Cumulative net eect of
EWEs on non-native species
12.6
0
–2.0
Cumulative net eect of
EWEs on non-native species
16.3
0
Fig. 5 | Overlapping areas between potential distributions of non-native
species that are tolerant of EWEs and EWE hotspots worldwide. a–e, Global
maps showing the accumulative net effects of predicted non-native animals in
areas with the top 20% occurrences of heatwaves (a), cold spells (b), storms (c),
100-yr floods (d) and extreme droughts (SPI ≤ −1.5) (e) at 5-arcmin resolution.
Higher values indicate greater combined risks of invasions and EWEs, and
negative values mean that there are more negative responses of non-native
species to EWEs than positive and neutral responses in those areas. The ‘white’
colour in the maps indicates land areas without overlaps between predicted
distributions of non-native species and EWEs. Taxonomic information for
animals in each corresponding EWE type used in the overlap analyses: for
heatwaves, terrestrial (Amphibia, Aves, Euchelicerata and Insecta), freshwater
(Bivalvia, Branchiopoda, Gastropoda, Malacostraca and Teleostei) and marine
(Ascidiacea, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Gymnolaemata, Malacostraca, Maxillopoda,
Polychaeta and Teleostei) species were included; for cold spells, terrestrial
(Amphibia, Insecta, Mammalia and Reptilia), freshwater (Gastropoda and
Teleostei) and marine (Bivalvia, Malacostraca, Maxillopoda and Polychaeta)
species were included; for storms, terrestrial (Amphibia, Aves, Insecta,
Mammalia and Reptilia), freshwater (Bivalvia, Clitellata, Gastropoda and
Teleostei) and marine (Malacostraca and Teleostei) species were included;
for floods, terrestrial (Amphibia and Aves) and freshwater (Bivalvia, Insecta,
Malacostraca and Teleostei) species were included; for droughts, terrestrial
(Insecta) and freshwater (Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Malacostraca and Teleostei)
species were included.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
risk in these regions. Furthermore, our identified EWE epicentres have
also been validated by several predictive models52–55.
Our present study also provided some useful directions for future
studies. First, this study focused on the direct effect of EWEs to native
and non-native species, but EWEs can also have indirect impacts on
biota. For example, prolonged heatwaves can promote lethal hypoxic/
anoxic conditions56. EWEs can cause severe population declines by
damaging habitat-forming species, such as corals, forests, mangroves
and mussel7, or by removing key prey species from food webs57. Further-
more, for marine species, the effects of EWEs might be more severe in
intertidal and shallow subtidal zones than in deeper/offshore marine
waters owing to increased exposure to EWEs. Indeed, we found that
non-native species in deeper water (species recorded maximum depth
>200 m) exhibited positive responses to EWEs (mean effect size 2.262,
P = 0.009). However, we did not detect the negative effect of EWEs on
either non-native or native species in intertidal and shallow subtidal
zones. As we only have 41 samples (3.3% of all marine species samples)
for deeper/offshore species, a larger sample size would be useful to
more rigorously compare the responses of nearshore vs offshore spe-
cies. Finally, the invasion and EWE overlap areas in the present study
were based on non-native animal tolerance to EWEs. We acknowledge
that some EWE-sensitive non-native species might still have the poten-
tial to exert ecological forces on existing ecosystems. However, under
the limited resources that can be used to manage biological invasions
and climate change, we suggest that future studies should prioritize
these less-sensitive animals in locations of overlap so that timely mitiga-
tion strategies can be implemented if native species exhibit declines
associated with biological invasions and intensified EWEs driven by
global change. Our present analyses could facilitate early prevention
schemes against biological invasions and climate change globally and
improve the development of sustainable policies in the era of global
change.
Methods
Literature search
We conducted a systematic literature search on ISI Web of Science (all
databases) and Scopus to collect published papers from the year 1864
to 24 April 2023. The following search terms were entered into the
‘Topic’ field in ISI Web of Science and in ‘All fields’ for Scopus: (‘storm’
OR ‘hurricane’ OR ‘cyclone’ OR ‘typhoon’ OR ‘tornado’ OR ‘wildfire’
OR ‘extreme snow’ OR ‘extreme ice’ OR ‘extreme heat’ OR ‘heat wave’
OR ‘extreme high temperature’ OR ‘extreme cold’ OR ‘cold wave’ OR
‘extreme’ OR ‘extreme drought’ OR ‘extreme rainfall’ OR ‘extreme
precipitation’ OR ‘flood’) AND (‘abundance’ OR ‘behaviour’ OR ‘rich-
ness’ OR ‘reproduction’ OR ‘mating’ OR ‘*diversity’ OR ‘composition’
OR ‘predation’ OR ‘parasit’ OR ‘herbivory’ OR ‘activity’ OR ‘timing’ OR
‘physiology’ OR ‘development’ OR ‘trophic’ OR ‘biomass’ OR ‘survival’
OR ‘growth’) AND (‘species’ OR ‘population’ OR ‘ecological community’
OR ‘ecosystem*’). This resulted in a total of 147,212 unique studies that
were screened for inclusion in our meta-analysis. We also combined
studies from four previous meta-analyses of the animals’ responses
to EWEs8,13,58,59 (Supplementary Fig. 1).
Screening process and data exclusion criteria
First, we screened the title, key words and abstract to determine can-
didate studies that focused on effects of EWEs on non-native or native
species. Review papers and those without quantitative analyses were
excluded. We excluded studies on the basis of the following criteria:
(1) no statistical comparisons of EWE effects to controls, insufficient
information on sample size, mean or variance, or no reporting of
the animal species; (2) only lab work simulating the EWE-associated
changes in salinity but no direct test of the EWE effects on aquatic or
saltmarsh living organisms; (3) intra- or interspecific interactions under
changed microclimatic or soil habitats induced by EWEs; (4) sea-level
or manipulated water-level rise that resulted in further submergence
or inundation; (5) human burning practices in managed grassland or
forests; and (6) comparison of differences in litter or carrion of species
along a gradient of EWEs. We excluded these studies because there
were either no measured response variables of species to EWEs (2 to 5),
or the reported measured variables were only based on the species’
litter or carrion but not the living organisms (6). We then divided the
studies14–16,25–27,38,39,45–47,50,60–490 that passed this screening into those on
non-native and native species.
Data extraction and measurable categories of response
variables
We extracted sample size, mean and variance values in the control (that
is, those samples that did not experience EWEs) and treatment groups
(that is, those samples that experienced EWEs) from each study. Par-
ticularly, for studies based on successive or long-term observational
data, the value at the closest time before EWEs was the control, and the
averaged value around the time of EWE was the treatment491. We only
extracted the most extreme EWE level from manipulative experiments
testing more than two EWE levels. GetData graph Digitizer (v.2.24)
was used to extract values from figures in the studies. We extracted
median and interquartile range in boxplots to quantify the mean and
deviation values when studies reported statistical results of parametric
tests or when the data had been transformed to meet normality in the
literature492. From each study, we also recorded species name, taxon,
ecosystem, type of EWE, coordinates of study/sampling sites and refer-
ence information.
We categorized response variables into eight categories. At the
population level, categories included life history traits (that is, sur-
vival rate, reproduction, longevity, development time, growth rate),
abundance (that is, population density or size, capture or encounter
rate, number count and relative abundance), distribution (that is, occu-
pancy, home range, spatial distribution, foraging zone, territory size),
biodiversity (that is, number of species, richness index, population
genetic structure) and recovery (that is, recovery of population abun-
dance and/or community composition after EWEs). At the individual
level, categories included physiology (that is, gene expression, immune
responses, protein and hormone-related chemical compounds, respi-
ration and critical thermal limits), body condition (that is, body mass
and size) and behaviour (that is, activity, dietary, feeding or foraging
amount, inter-/intraspecific competition, migration or movement and
habitat selection) (Supplementary Table 6). These eight groups were
only included in our main analyses if they contained at least 10 effect
sizes from multiple studies for each class or biogeographic realm
493
.
The response variables were standardized before the analyses to ensure
that all reported responses were in the same direction; that is, larger
was always better and smaller worse for each response variable.
Meta-analysis
We used a standardized mean difference with heteroscedastic popu-
lation variances (SMDH) in the two groups, which is a widely used
and robust method to calculate effect sizes494. Hedges’ d effect sizes
were obtained after correcting for sample bias in SMDH using the
‘escalc’ function in the ‘metafor’ (v.3.0-2) package495. To evaluate
responses of mean effect sizes to moderator variables, we ran multi-
level mixed-effects metaregression models using the ‘rma.mv’ function
in the ‘metafor’ (v.3.0-2) package, which allowed us to account for the
nested structure and non-independence of observations from a single
study. To control for non-independence among variables within a
study, we adopted the method used in ref. 28 and set paper ID (a set of
numbers used to distinguish different studies) as a random intercept.
In addition, we included different taxonomic levels (Class, Order and
Family) as a random effect to control for phylogenetic covariance in
EWE tolerances among species. We used Family in our main analysis
because of its lower Akaike information criterion value than models
using Class or Order as random intercept (Supplementary Table 7).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
We also included response variable category as a random effect to
control for the pseudoreplication issue of different samples among
categories of variables. We included interaction between non-native/
native status and the occurrence of a given EWE as a fixed effect to test
for differences in responses of native and non-native species to EWEs.
We considered the mean effect size estimate to be significant when the
95% confidence interval (CI) did not encompass zero. The approximate
residual heterogeneity of models was assessed using Cochran’s Q (Q
E
),
and the omnibus Wald-type test (Q
M
) was used to assess model perfor-
mance in explaining the heterogeneity attributed to a given moderator
variable
496
. We ran Egger’s regression test for publication bias
497
and
an omnibus test to compare the responses of non-native and native
species to each EWE498.
Sensitivity analyses
Previous studies suggested that sample outliers might influence the
results of meta-analyses
499
. To test the robustness of our results to
sample outliers, we removed those outliers and re-ran meta-analytic
models to check the outcome of mean effect sizes. Outliers were clas-
sified as any standardized residual for a study whose absolute value
was >3 (ref. 500) and were determined using the ‘metaoutliers’ func-
tion in the ‘altmeta’ (v.4.1) package501. Neither the direction nor the
significance of mean effect sizes changed when outliers were removed
(see details in Supplementary Tables 8 and 9) except for the following:
a significant negative response of native species to terrestrial storms
became non-significant (Supplementary Table 8), and two significant
positive responses (behaviour and life history traits) and one significant
negative response (abundance) of native freshwater species to EWEs
became non-significant (Supplementary Table 9).
To test whether the overall response to different EWEs was robust
across taxa and biogeographic realms (Nearctic, Neotropic, Palaearctic,
Afrotropic, Australasian) for terrestrial and freshwater species, and
across provinces (Agulhas, Cold Temperate Northeast Pacific, Lusita-
nian, Northern European Seas, Tropical Northwestern Atlantic, Warm
Temperate Northeast Pacific and Warm Temperate Northwest Atlantic)
for marine species, we conducted two additional sets of sensitivity anal-
yses specifically focusing only on those taxonomic classes and realms
reporting both non-native and native animals (Supplementary Data 1).
Identifying areas of overlap between hotspots of invasions
and EWEs
We finally explored overlap areas suitable for establishment of
EWE-tolerant non-native animals and frequent EWEs. To achieve this,
we first collected occurrence data for each non-native species and pre-
dicted their habitat suitability for establishment worldwide. We then
overlapped those grids with suitable habitats for non-native species
establishment with EWE hotspots (10%, 20% and 30% grids at a spatial
resolution of 5 arcmin with the highest frequency of EWEs in history).
For these overlapped grids, we calculated the net effect of positive,
negative and neutral responses for each non-native animal to focal
EWEs (that is, net effect = proportion of positive response + proportion
of neutral response − proportion of negative response) on the basis of
the sample effect sizes in the meta-analyses above. The accumulative
net effect of EWEs on non-native species in each grid was obtained, with
higher values indicating greater potential combined risks of invasions
and EWEs. Details for predicting non-native species habitat suitability
and the distributions of historical EWEs are summarized below.
Habitat suitability for non-native animal establishment. We first
generated a non-native species list from the literature used in the
meta-analysis (see non-native species list in Supplementary Data 2).
Species occurrence records were then gathered from the online data-
base of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility502, and we added
additional records from the literature (see distribution data source in
Supplementary Data 2). We excluded those records without precise
coordinates and withunclear establishment status. Next, we applied
the ‘scrubr’ R package to remove duplicate coordinates
503
. For further
spatial modelling analysis, occurrence data were thinned to 5-arcmin
resolution (~9.2 km at the equator) using the ‘spThin’ package
504
to
reduce sampling bias from disproportional survey efforts among taxa
or regions505. We identified the native and non-native ranges for each
of species on the basis of the following databases: Global Invasive Spe-
cies Database (GISD, http://www.iucngisd.org/gisd/), Invasive Species
Compendium on CABI (https://www.cabi.org/ISC/), World Register of
Introduced Marine Species (WRiMS, https://www.marinespecies.org/
introduced/), SeaLifeBase (https://www.sealifebase.se/search.php),
IUCN (https://www.iucnredlist.org/), and extra information from Wiki-
pedia, Google Scholar and published literature (Supplementary Data
3). We further quantified the potential distribution of the non-native
species using ecological niche modelling (ENM), which is a widely
used method to provide robust predictions of potential distributions
of species506. ENMs for potential species distributions under current
climatic conditions were constructed using MaxEnt
507
on the basis of a
standard protocol following a previous study
508
. Details on modelling
steps, predictor selection, method to account for sample bias and
assessments of model performance are provided below.
ENM
To quantify potential distributions of non-native species, the Max
-
Ent algorithm was used to fit the models. The MaxEnt algorithm has
generally shown high predictive performance and has been exten-
sively applied in conservation, invasion and biogeography studies,
and recent research shows that tuned MaxEnt models can perform
comparably to ensemble models
509
. Training data contained both of a
species’ native and non-native ranges to eliminate biases in evaluating
species’ realized niches as some non-native species can shift their real-
ized climatic niches in invaded areas510,511. A minimum convex polygon
with two-degree buffers was chosen to define the background extent
where distribution occurrences of non-native species are located512.
A target-group method was used to account for the potential effect of
sampling bias in species occurrence data on results513.
For land species, both climate and habitat factors including vegeta-
tion and water availability were used to predict their potential distribu-
tions, considering the important role of habitat variables in reflecting
species’ requirements for food and reproduction
514
. Details on variable
selection differed across taxa on the basis of their main physiological
requirements following previous studies (Supplementary Table 10).
For marine non-native species, the Bio-ORACLE database (v.2.2,
https://www.bio-oracle.org/downloads-to-email.php) was used to col-
lect current environmental data for both surface and benthic species
515
.
Sea water depth information was accessed from Global Marine Envi-
ronment Datasets (https://gmed.auckland.ac.nz/)516. The Bio-ORACLE
database supplied averaged outputs of predic tors on the basis of three
atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) including
CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 at 5-arcmin (~9.2 km at the equator)
resolution that was then used for further analyses
515
. As climate warm-
ing effects on marine ecosystems depend on ocean depths
517
, potential
distributions of benthic and shallow-water species were predicted
separately. Water depth, salinity and seasonal water temperature were
necessarily used to predict distributions of benthic invertebrates
and fishes518,519. Specifically, a total of six candidate predictors were
used to predict benthic species distributions, including water depth
(m), annual mean current velocity (m−1 yr−1), annual mean sea benthic
salinity (PSS yr−1), annual range of sea benthic salinity (PSS yr−1), annual
mean sea benthic temperature (°C yr−1) and annual range of sea ben-
thic temperature (°C yr
−1
). For surface water fishes, water depth, sea
surface temperature and salinity, and sea ice were used to predict
spatial distributions
520–522
. Potential distributions of marine surface
fishes were predicted by seven candidate predictors, including water
depth (m), annual mean current velocity (m
−1
yr
−1
), annual mean ice
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
thickness (m yr−1), annual sea surface salinity (PSS yr−1), annual range
of sea surface salinity (PSS yr
−1
), annual mean sea surface temperature
(°C yr−1) and annual range of sea surface temperature (°C yr−1). These
predictor variables did not show high correlations (Pearson’s correla-
tion coefficient |r| < 0.70)523.
Multiple predictor combinations from simple to full models were
fitted using the MaxEnt algorithm. Cross-validations for the fitted
models were performed on the basis of a spatial partitioning strat-
egy using the ‘block’ method524. Three representative measures (area
under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill
statistic (TSS) and Boyce index) were used to evaluate the performance
of fitted models
525–527
. First, AUC is a threshold-independent meas-
ure; an AUC value between 0.7 and 0.9 indicates good model perfor-
mance and a value >0.9 indicates excellent performance
528
. Second,
TSS is a threshold-dependent measure with summing of sensitivity
and specificity minus one529; a TSS value from 0.4 to 0.8 indicates
good model performance and a value >0.8 indicates excellent perfor-
mance. Third, the Boyce index is useful for evaluating fitted models
with presence-only data to overcome potential overfitting issues. This
index ranges from −1 to 1 and a higher value indicates better model
performance527. All ENMs analyses were conducted using the ‘ENMeval’
package in R530. Overall, the ENMs used in our present study had good
performance in predicting potential distributions of the non-native
species (with minimum values of AUC > 0.75; TSS > 0.40; more than 83%
of species with Boyce > 0.70; see details in Supplementary Table 11).
EWEs distribution. Distributions of different types of EWEs were col-
lected from open data sources and publications.
Heatwave and cold-spell events on land
HadEX3 is a newly updated product generated through the coordina-
tion of the joint World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert
Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). HadEX3
(https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadex3/) supplies a set of 17
monthly metrics of extreme weather events gridded (1.875° × 1.25°
longitude–latitude) for global land surfaces from 1901 to 2018 (ref. 531).
Four of those metrics were selected owing to their long-term record-
ings by stations and representation of the frequency and intensity of
thermal extremes531. Proportions of extreme warm days and duration
of warm days are commonly used to evaluate global-scale heatwave
conditions532,533. TX90p (percentage of time when daily maximum
temperature is >90th percentile) and WSDI (annual count when at least
6 consecutive days of maximum temperature is >90th percentile) were
used to quantify heatwave events in terrestrial and freshwater systems.
TN10p (percentage of time when daily minimum temperature is <10th
percentile) and CSDI (annual count when at least 6 consecutive days
of minimum temperature is <10th percentile) were used to quantify
cold-spell events.
Marine heatwave and cold-spell events
Historical marine heatwave events from 1980 to 2019 were recently
reported
534
as averaged days of heatwaves per decade at 1° × 1° resolu-
tion at the global scale. Reference 535 provides mean annual frequency of
marine cold-spell (days) from 1982 to 2020 at 0.2498264° × 0.2496528°
resolution globally.
Storm events
The Global Risk Data Platform supplies historical recorded storm
events and tracks from satellite remote-sensing from 1970 to 2015
(https://preview.grid.unep.ch/index.php?preview=data&events=
cyclones&evcat=1&lang=eng). Available polygon layers in this plat-
form contain information on country names, the year of storm events,
starting and ending dates and the category per event. In addition, the
coordinates of storm tracks per event are provided. Therefore, duration
and category data of storm events at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution were used.
Extreme flood events
Aqueduct Flood Hazard Maps provide global historical flood haz-
ard grid datasets at 5’ × 5’ resolution (https://www.wri.org/data/
aqueduct-floods-hazard-maps). The historical dataset supplies times
of recorded coastal and riverine floods with returning periods of 2, 5,
10, 25, 50, 100, 250 and 1,000 yr (ref. 536). Sums of times of coastal
and riverine flooding events with 100-yr returning periods were used
in the data analysis.
Extreme drought events
The global monthly average standardized precipitation index (SPI)
dataset is available from the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR)/University Corporation for Atmosphere Research (UCAR)
platform (https://www.ucar.edu/) at 1° × 1° resolution for the years
1942–2012. Monthly SPI is a widely used index to describe meteoro-
logical drought, and monthly SPI ≤ −1.5 was used to define an extreme
drought event537. The SPI data for a 12-month timescale were selected
to assess drought events. Fur thermore, to better quantify multiple-year
averages of drought events, we calculated the frequency of extreme
dryness per year (that is, (1/12) × number of month(s) with SPI ≤ −1.5).
The annual mean frequency of extreme dryness from January 1950 to
December 2012 was used in the data analysis. We standardized all the
EWEs layers with different to the same 5-arcmin resolution using the
‘resample’ function in the ‘raster’ (v.3.5-21) package538. Animal silhou-
ettes in the PhyloPic database (www.phylopic.org) were accessed and
visualized using the ‘add_phylopic_base’ function in the ‘rphylopic’
(v.1.1.1) package539. All data540 analyses were conducted in R (4.2.1)541.
Reporting summary
Further information on research design is available in the Nature Port-
folio Reporting Summary linked to this article.
Data availability
All data have been deposited in a public structured data depository
(https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23587695). Source data are pro-
vided with this paper.
Code availability
The R code for running the main analyses is available at https://doi.
org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23587695.
References
1. Pyšek, P. et al. Scientists’ warning on invasive alien species.
Biol. Rev. 95, 1511–1534 (2020).
2. Urban, M. C. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.
Science 348, 571–573 (2015).
3. Hulme, P. E. Climate change and biological invasions:
evidence, expectations, and response options. Biol. Rev. 92,
1297–1313 (2017).
4. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. A decade of weather extremes.
Nat. Clim. Change 2, 491–496 (2012).
5. Harris, R. M. B. et al. Biological responses to the press and
pulse of climate trends and extreme events. Nat. Clim. Change 8,
579–587 (2018).
6. Seneviratne, S. I. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 1513–1766
(IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
7. Smith, K. E. et al. Biological impacts of marine heatwaves.
Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 15, 119–145 (2023).
8. Maxwell, S. L. et al. Conservation implications of ecological
responses to extreme weather and climate events. Divers. Distrib.
25, 613–625 (2019).
9. Zabin, C. J. et al. Increasing the resilience of ecological
restoration to extreme climatic events. Front. Ecol. Environ. 20,
310–318 (2022).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
10. Till, A., Rypel, A. L., Bray, A. & Fey, S. B. Fish die-os are concurrent
with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes. Nat. Clim.
Change 9, 637–641 (2019).
11. Wernberg, T. et al. An extreme climatic event alters marine
ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot. Nat. Clim.
Change 3, 78–82 (2013).
12. Ameca, Y. J. E. I., Mace, G. M., Cowlishaw, G. & Pettorelli, N.
Natural population die-os: causes and consequences for
terrestrial mammals. Trends Ecol. Evol. 27, 272–277 (2012).
13. Sabater, S. et al. Extreme weather events threaten biodiversity
and functions of river ecosystems: evidence from a meta-analysis.
Biol. Rev. 98, 450–461 (2023).
14. Winder, M. & Jassby, A. D. & Mac Nally, R. Synergies between
climate anomalies and hydrological modiications facilitate
estuarine biotic invasions. Ecol. Lett. 14, 749–757 (2011).
15. Ruhí, A., Holmes, E. E., Rinne, J. N. & Sabo, J. L. Anomalous
droughts, not invasion, decrease persistence of native ishes in a
desert river. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 1482–1496 (2015).
16. Johnston, M. W. & Purkis, S. J. Hurricanes accelerated the
Florida–Bahamas lionish invasion. Glob. Change Biol. 21,
2249–2260 (2015).
17. Carlton, J. T. et al. Tsunami-driven rafting: transoceanic species
dispersal and implications for marine biogeography. Science 357,
1402–1405 (2017).
18. Diez, J. M. et al. Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological
invasions? Front. Ecol. Environ. 10, 249–257 (2012).
19. Enders, M. et al. A conceptual map of invasion biology:
integrating hypotheses into a consensus network. Glob. Ecol.
Biogeogr. 29, 978–991 (2020).
20. Straub, S. C. et al. Resistance, extinction, and everything
in between – the diverse responses of seaweeds to marine
heatwaves. Front. Mar. Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.
00763 (2019).
21. Ehrlich, P. R. in Ecology of Biological Invasions of North
America and Hawaii (eds Mooney, H. A. & Drake, J. A.) 79–95
(Springer, 1986).
22. Lodge, D. M. Biological invasions: lessons for ecology.
Trends Ecol. Evol. 8, 133–137 (1993).
23. Beauclerc, K. B., Johnson, B. & White, B. N. Genetic rescue of an
inbred captive population of the critically endangered Puerto
Rican crested toad (Peltophryne lemur) by mixing lineages.
Conserv. Genet. 11, 21–32 (2010).
24. Kelley, A. L. The role thermal physiology plays in species invasion.
Conserv. Physiol. 2, cou045 (2014).
25. Ilarri, M., Souza, A. T., Dias, E. & Antunes, C. Inluence of climate
change and extreme weather events on an estuarine ish
community. Sci. Total Environ. 827, 154190 (2022).
26. Gubanova, A. et al. Response of the Black Sea zooplankton to the
marine heat wave 2010: case of the Sevastopol Bay. J. Mar. Sci.
Eng. 10, 1933 (2022).
27. Sorte, C. J. B., Fuller, A. & Bracken, M. E. S. Impacts of a simulated
heat wave on composition of a marine community. Oikos 119,
1909–1918 (2010).
28. Sanders, D., Frago, E., Kehoe, R., Patterson, C. & Gaston, K. J. A
meta-analysis of biological impacts of artiicial light at night. Nat.
Ecol. Evol. 5, 74–81 (2021).
29. Mims, M. C. & Olden, J. D. Fish assemblages respond to altered
low regimes via ecological iltering of life history strategies.
Freshw. Biol. 58, 50–62 (2013).
30. Pool, T. K. & Olden, J. D. Assessing long-term ish responses and
short-term solutions to low regulation in a dryland river basin.
Ecol. Freshw. Fish. 24, 56–66 (2015).
31. Colautti, R. I. & Lau, J. A. Contemporary evolution during
invasion: evidence for dierentiation, natural selection, and local
adaptation. Mol. Ecol. 24, 1999–2017 (2015).
32. Davidson, A. M., Jennions, M. & Nicotra, A. B. Do invasive species
show higher phenotypic plasticity than native species and, if so, is
it adaptive? A meta-analysis. Ecol. Lett. 14, 419–431 (2011).
33. Tarusikirwa, V. L., Mutamiswa, R., English, S., Chidawanyika, F.
& Nyamukondiwa, C. Thermal plasticity in the invasive South
American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera:
Gelechiidae). J. Therm. Biol. 90, 102598 (2020).
34. Magozzi, S. & Calosi, P. Integrating metabolic performance,
thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate
predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic eects
of global warming. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 181–194 (2015).
35. Seebens, H. et al. No saturation in the accumulation of alien
species worldwide. Nat. Commun. 8, 14435 (2017).
36. Lockwood, J. L., Cassey, P. & Blackburn, T. The role of propagule
pressure in explaining species invasions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20,
223–228 (2005).
37. Weaving, H., Terblanche, J. S., Pottier, P. & English, S.
Meta-analysis reveals weak but pervasive plasticity in insect
thermal limits. Nat. Commun. 13, 5292 (2022).
38. Truhlar, A. M., Dodd, J. A. & Aldridge, D. C. Dierential
leaf-litter processing by native (Gammarus pulex) and invasive
(Dikerogammarus villosus) freshwater crustaceans under
environmental extremes. Aquat. Conserv. 24, 56–65 (2014).
39. Ferreira-Rodriguez, N., Fandino, L., Pedreira, A. & Pardo, I. First
evidence of asymmetric competition between the non-native
clam Corbicula luminea and the native freshwater mussel Unio
delphinus during a summer heat wave. Aquat. Conserv. 28,
1105–1113 (2018).
40. Dobler, A. H., Hoos, P. & Geist, J. Distribution and potential impacts
of non-native Chinese pond mussels Sinanodonta woodiana (Lea,
1834) in Bavaria, Germany. Biol. Invasions 24, 1689–1706 (2022).
41. Cook, E. J. et al. in Aquaculture in the Ecosystem (eds Holmer, M.
et al.) 155–184 (Springer, 2008).
42. Hughes, T. P. et al. Ecological memory modiies the cumulative
impact of recurrent climate extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 9,
40–43 (2019).
43. Johnstone, J. F. et al. Changing disturbance regimes, ecological
memory, and forest resilience. Front. Ecol. Environ. 14,
369–378 (2016).
44. Howells, E. J. et al. Enhancing the heat tolerance of reef-building
corals to future warming. Sci. Adv. 7, eabg6070 (2021).
45. Gallagher, M. C. et al. Short-term losses and long-term gains: the
non-native species Austrominius modestus in Lough Hyne Marine
Nature Reserve. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 191, 96–105 (2017).
46. David, A. A. & Simon, C. A. The eect of temperature on larval
development of two non-indigenous poecilogonous polychaetes
(Annelida: Spionidae) with implications for life history theory,
establishment and range expansion. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 461,
20–30 (2014).
47. Erlandsson, J., Pal, P. & McQuaid, C. D. Re-colonisation rate
diers between co-existing indigenous and invasive intertidal
mussels following major disturbance. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 320,
169–176 (2006).
48. Donovan, M. K. et al. Local conditions magnify coral loss after
marine heatwaves. Science 372, 977–980 (2021).
49. Patrick, C. J. et al. A general pattern of trade-os between
ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones. Sci.
Adv. 8, eabl9155 (2022).
50. Hughes, C., Richardson, C. A., Luckenbach, M. & Seed, R.
Diiculties in separating hurricane induced eects from natural
benthic succession: Hurricane Isabel, a case study from Eastern
Virginia, USA. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 85, 377–386 (2009).
51. Molnar, J. L., Gamboa, R. L., Revenga, C. & Spalding, M. D.
Assessing the global threat of invasive species to marine
biodiversity. Front. Ecol. Environ. 6, 485–492 (2008).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
52. Frölicher, T. L., Fischer, E. M. & Gruber, N. Marine heatwaves under
global warming. Nature 560, 360–364 (2018).
53. Studholme, J., Fedorov, A. V., Gulev, S. K., Emanuel, K. & Hodges,
K. Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming
climates. Nat. Geosci. 15, 14–28 (2022).
54. Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. & Jaino, B. A. Flood exposure and
poverty in 188 countries. Nat. Commun. 13, 3527 (2022).
55. Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W. & Bronaugh, D.
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:
part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J. Geophys. Res.
Atmos. 118, 1716–1733 (2013).
56. Pezner, A. K. et al. Increasing hypoxia on global coral reefs under
ocean warming. Nat. Clim. Change 13, 403–409 (2023).
57. Magel, J. M. T., Dimo, S. A. & Baum, J. K. Direct and indirect
eects of climate change-ampliied pulse heat stress events on
coral reef ish communities. Ecol. Appl. 30, e02124 (2020).
58. Thakur, M. P., Risch, A. C. & van der Putten, W. H. Biotic responses
to climate extremes in terrestrial ecosystems. iScience 25,
104559 (2022).
59. Neilson, E. W. et al. There’s a storm a-coming: ecological
resilience and resistance to extreme weather events. Ecol. Evol.
10, 12147–12156 (2020).
60. Griiths, K. J. Development and diapause in Pleolophus
basizonus (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae). Can. Entomol. 101,
907–914 (1969).
61. Brock, R. E. Occurrence and variety of ishes in mixohaline ponds
of Kona, Hawaii, coast. Copeia 1977, 134–139 (1977).
62. Cooke, B. D. Factors limiting the distribution of the European
rabbit lea, Spilopsyllus cuniculi (Dale) (Siphonaptera), in inland
South Australia. Aust. J. Zool. 32, 493–506 (1984).
63. Dukeen, M. Y. H. & Omer, S. M. Ecology of the malaria vector
Anopheles arabiensis Patton (Diptera, Culicidae) by the Nile in
Northern Sudan. Bull. Entomol. Res. 76, 451–467 (1986).
64. Cowles, T. J., Roman, M. R., Gauzens, A. L. & Copley, N. J.
Short-term changes in the biology of a warm-core ring:
zooplankton biomass and grazing. Limnol. Oceanogr. 32,
653–664 (1987).
65. Jarvis, J. L. & Guthrie, W. D. Ecological studies of the European
corn borer (Lepidoptera, Pyralidae) in Boone County, Iowa.
Environ. Entomol. 16, 50–58 (1987).
66. Doeg, T. J. & Koehn, J. D. Eects of draining and desilting a small
weir on downstream ish and macroinvertebrates. Regul. Rivers
Res. Manag. 9, 263–277 (1994).
67. Dollo, C. A., Flebbe, P. A. & Owen, M. D. Fish habitat and ish
populations in a southern Appalachian watershed before and
after Hurricane Hugo. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 123, 668–678 (1994).
68. Erman, N. A. & Erman, D. C. Spring permanence, trichoptera
species richness, and the role of drought. J. Kans. Entomol. Soc.
68, 50–64 (1995).
69. Fitzsimons, J. M. & Nishimoto, R. T. Use of ish behavior in
assessing the eects of Hurricane Iniki on the Hawaiian island of
Kaua’i. Environ. Biol. Fish. 43, 39–50 (1995).
70. Hogg, I. D. & Williams, D. D. Response of stream invertebrates
to a global-warming thermal regime: an ecosystem-level
manipulation. Ecology 77, 395–407 (1996).
71. Good, W. R., Story, J. M. & Callan, N. W. Winter cold hardiness
and supercooling of Metzneria paucipunctella (Lepidoptera:
Gelechiidae), a moth introduced for biological control of spotted
knapweed. Environ. Entomol. 26, 1131–1135 (1997).
72. Armstrong, J. D., Braithwaite, V. A. & Fox, M. The response of wild
Atlantic salmon parr to acute reductions in water low. J. Anim.
Ecol. 67, 292–297 (1998).
73. Bially, A. & MacIsaac, H. J. Fouling mussels (Dreissena spp.)
colonize soft sediments in Lake Erie and facilitate benthic
invertebrates. Freshw. Biol. 43, 85–97 (2000).
74. Gaines, K. F., Bryan, A. L. & Dixon, P. M. The eects of drought on
foraging habitat selection of breeding wood storks in Coastal
Georgia. Waterbirds 23, 64–73 (2000).
75. Adams, A. J. Eects of a hurricane on two assemblages of coral
reef ishes: multiple-year analysis reverses a false snapshot’
interpretation. Bull. Mar. Sci. 69, 341–356 (2001).
76. Bischo, A. & Wolter, C. The lood of the century on the River Oder:
eects on the 0+ ish community and implications for loodplain
restoration. Regul. Rivers Res. Manag. 17, 171–190 (2001).
77. Bravo, R., Soriguer, M. C., Villar, N. & Hernando, J. A. The dynamics
of ish populations in the Palancar stream, a small tributary of the
river Guadalquivir, Spain. Acta Oecol 22, 9–20 (2001).
78. Daltry, J. C. et al. Five years of conserving the ‘world’s rarest snake’,
the Antiguan racer Alsophis antiguae. Oryx 35, 119–127 (2001).
79. Fausch, K. D., Taniguchi, Y., Nakano, S., Grossman, G. D. &
Townsend, C. R. Flood disturbance regimes inluence rainbow
trout invasion success among ive holarctic regions. Ecol. Appl. 11,
1438–1455 (2001).
80. Jones, J., DeBruyn, R. D., Barg, J. J. & Robertson, R. J. Assessing the
eects of natural disturbance on a neotropical migrant songbird.
Ecology 82, 2628–2635 (2001).
81. Jones, K. E., Barlow, K. E., Vaughan, N., Rodríguez-Durán, A. &
Gannon, M. R. Short-term impacts of extreme environmental
disturbance on the bats of Puerto Rico. Anim. Conserv. 4,
59–66 (2001).
82. Cheal, A. et al. Responses of coral and ish assemblages to a
severe but short-lived tropical cyclone on the Great Barrier Reef,
Australia. Coral Reefs 21, 131–142 (2002).
83. Christman, B. J. Extreme between-year variation in productivity of
a bridled titmouse (Baeolophus wollweberi) population. Auk 119,
1149–1154 (2002).
84. Humphries, P., Seraini, L. G. & King, A. J. River regulation and
ish larvae: variation through space and time. Freshw. Biol. 47,
1307–1331 (2002).
85. Adams, S. M., Greeley, M. S., Law, J. M., Noga, E. J. & Zeliko, J.
T. Application of multiple sublethal stress indicators to assess
the health of ish in Pamlico Sound following extensive looding.
Estuaries 26, 1365–1382 (2003).
86. Bernardo, J. M., Ilheu, M., Matono, P. & Costa, A. M. Interannual
variation of ish assemblage structure in a Mediterranean River:
implications of streamlow on the dominance of native or exotic
species. River Res. Appl. 19, 521–532 (2003).
87. Covich, A. P., Crowl, T. A. & Scatena, F. N. Eects of extreme
low lows on freshwater shrimps in a perennial tropical stream.
Freshw. Biol. 48, 1199–1206 (2003).
88. Faccio, S. D. Eects of ice storm-created gaps on forest
breeding bird communities in central Vermont. Ecol. Manag. 186,
133–145 (2003).
89. Gaillard, J. M. et al. Eects of hurricane Lothar on the population
dynamics of European roe deer. J. Wildl. Manag. 67, 767–773 (2003).
90. Adams, A. J. & Ebersole, J. P. Resistance of coral reef ishes
in back reef and lagoon habitats to a hurricane. Bull. Mar. Sci. 75,
101–113 (2004).
91. Chen, L.-H., Chu, K. C.-M. & Chiu, Y.-W. Impacts of natural
disturbance on ish communities in the Tachia River, Taiwan.
Hydrobiologia 522, 149–164 (2004).
92. Herremans, M. Eects of drought on birds in the Kalahari,
Botswana. Ostrich 75, 217–227 (2004).
93. Hurd, L. E., Mallis, R. E., Bulka, K. C. & Jones, A. M. Life history,
environment, and deme extinction in the Chinese mantid
Tenodera aridifolia sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae). Environ.
Entomol. 33, 182–187 (2004).
94. Bolger, D. T., Patten, M. A. & Bostock, D. C. Avian reproductive
failure in response to an extreme climatic event. Oecologia 142,
398–406 (2005).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
95. Bouget, C. & Noblecourt, T. Short-term development of
ambrosia and bark beetle assemblages following a windstorm
in French broadleaved temperate forests. J. Appl. Entomol. 129,
300–310 (2005).
96. Chan, K. S., Mysterud, A., Oritsland, N. A., Severinsen, T. &
Stenseth, N. C. Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events
aecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.
Oecologia 145, 556–563 (2005).
97. Echeverria, C. A., Paiva, P. C. & Alves, V. C. Composition and biomass
of shallow benthic megafauna during an annual cycle in Admiralty
Bay, King George Island, Antarctica. Antarct. Sci. 17, 312–318 (2005).
98. Barko, V. A., Herzog, D. P. & O’Connell, M. T. Response of ishes
to loodplain connectivity during and following a 500-year lood
event in the unimpounded upper Mississippi River. Wetlands 26,
244–257 (2006).
99. Bushek, D. & Boyd, S. Seasonal abundance and occurrence of
the Asian isopod Synidotea laevidorsalis in Delaware Bay, USA.
Biol. Invasions 8, 697–702 (2006).
100. Dodd, C. K. Jr., Ozgul, A. & Oli, M. K. The inluence of disturbance
events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles.
Ecol. Appl. 16, 1936–1944 (2006).
101. Esselstyn, J. A., Amar, A. & Janeke, D. Impact of post-typhoon
hunting on Mariana fruit bats (Pteropus mariannus). Pac. Sci. 60,
531–539 (2006).
102. Fields, P. A., Rudomin, E. L. & Somero, G. N. Temperature
sensitivities of cytosolic malate dehydrogenases from native
and invasive species of marine mussels (genus Mytilus):
sequence-function linkages and correlations with biogeographic
distribution. J. Exp. Biol. 209, 656–667 (2006).
103. Jurajda, P., Reichard, M. & Smith, C. Immediate impact of an
extensive summer lood on the adult ish assemblage of a
channelized lowland river. J. Freshw. Ecol. 21, 493–501 (2006).
104. Budy, P., Thiede, G. P. & McHugh, P. Quantiication of the vital
rates, abundance, and status of a critical, endemic population
of Bonneville cutthroat trout. North Am. J. Fish. Manag. 27,
593–604 (2007).
105. Cromer, R. B., Gresham, C. A., Goddard, M., Landham, J. D. &
Hanlin, H. G. Associations between two bottomland hardwood
forest shrew species and hurricane-generated woody debris.
Southeast. Nat. 6, 235–246 (2007).
106. Dewson, Z. S., James, A. B. W. & Death, R. G. Invertebrate
community responses to experimentally reduced discharge in
small streams of dierent water quality. J. North Am. Benthol.
Soc. 26, 754–766 (2007).
107. Fenoglio, S., Bo, T., Cucco, M. & Malacarne, G. Response of
benthic invertebrate assemblages to varying drought conditions
in the Po river (NW Italy). Ital. J. Zool. 74, 191–201 (2007).
108. Budy, P., Thiede, G. P., McHugh, P., Hansen, E. S. & Wood, J.
Exploring the relative inluence of biotic interactions and
environmental conditions on the abundance and distribution of
exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a high mountain stream. Ecol.
Freshw. Fish. 17, 554–566 (2008).
109. Cardoso, P. G., Raaelli, D. & Pardal, M. A. The impact of extreme
weather events on the seagrass Zostera noltii and related
Hydrobia ulvae population. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 56, 483–492 (2008).
110. Chuang, L. C., Shieh, B.-S., Liu, C.-C., Lin, Y.-S. & Liang, S.-H.
Eects of typhoon disturbance on the abundances of two
mid-water ish species in a mountain stream of northern Taiwan.
Zool. Stud. 47, 564–573 (2008).
111. Dionne, M., Maurice, C., Gauthier, J. & Shaer, F. Impact of
Hurricane Wilma on migrating birds: the case of the Chimney
Swift. Wilson J. Ornithol. 120, 784–792 (2008).
112. Dodd, C. K. Jr. & Dreslik, M. J. Habitat disturbances dierentially
aect individual growth rates in a long-lived turtle. J. Zool. 275,
18–25 (2008).
113. Fair, J. M. & Whitaker, S. J. Avian cell-mediated immune response
to drought. Wilson J. Ornithol. 120, 813–819 (2008).
114. Frederiksen, M., Daunt, F., Harris, M. P. & Wanless, S. The
demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather
drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird.
J. Anim. Ecol. 77, 1020–1029 (2008).
115. Freeman, A. N. D., Pias, K. & Vinson, M. F. The impact of Tropical
Cyclone Larry on bird communities in fragments of the
endangered rainforest Type 5b. Austral Ecol. 33, 532–540 (2008).
116. Gandhi, K. J. K. et al. Catastrophic windstorm and fuel-reduction
treatments alter ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae)
assemblages in a North American sub-boreal forest. Ecol. Manag.
256, 1104–1123 (2008).
117. Haag, W. R. & Warren, M. L. Jr. Eects of severe drought on
freshwater mussel assemblages. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 137,
1165–1178 (2008).
118. Bêche, L. A., Connors, P. G., Resh, V. H. & Merenlender, A. M.
Resilience of ishes and invertebrates to prolonged drought in
two California streams. Ecography 32, 778–788 (2009).
119. Champeau, T. R., Stevens, P. W. & Blewett, D. A. Comparison of ish
community metrics to assess long-term changes and hurricane
impacts at Peace River, Florida. Fla. Sci. 72, 289–309 (2009).
120. Dessaix, J. & Fruget, J. F. Long-term changes in the Crustaceans
fauna of the Middle Rhone River consequently to hydroclimatic
events. Hydroecol. Appl. 16, 1–27 (2009).
121. Devney, C. A., Short, M. & Congdon, B. C. Cyclonic and anthropogenic
inluences on tern populations. Wildl. Res. 36, 368–378 (2009).
122. Fleming, T. H. & Murray, K. L. Population and genetic
consequences of hurricanes for three species of west indian
phyllostomid bats. Biotropica 41, 250–256 (2009).
123. Fleming, T. H., Murray, K. L. & Carstens, B. Phylogeography
and Genetic Structure of Three Evolutionary Lineages of West
Indian Phyllostomid Bats. Island Bats: Evolution, Ecology, and
Conservation (eds Fleming, T. H. & Racey, P. A.) 116–150 (Univ.
Chicago Press, 2009).
124. Garrabou, J. et al. Mass mortality in Northwestern Mediterranean
rocky benthic communities: eects of the 2003 heat wave. Glob.
Change Biol. 15, 1090–1103 (2009).
125. Hopton, M. E., Cameron, G. N., Cramer, M. J., Polak, M. &
Uetz, G. W. Live animal radiography to measure developmental
instability in populations of small mammals after a natural
disaster. Ecol. Indic. 9, 883–891 (2009).
126. Ilg, C., Foeckler, F., Deichner, O. & Henle, K. Extreme lood
events favour loodplain mollusc diversity. Hydrobiologia 621,
63–73 (2009).
127. Balayla, D., Lauridsen, T. L., Søndergaard, M. & Jeppesen, E. Larger
zooplankton in Danish lakes after cold winters: are winter ish kills
of importance? Hydrobiologia 646, 159–172 (2010).
128. Charruau, P., Thorbjarnarson, J. B. & Hénaut, Y. Tropical cyclones
and reproductive ecology of Crocodylus acutus Cuvier, 1807
(Reptilia: Crocodilia: Crocodylidae) on a Caribbean atoll in
Mexico. J. Nat. Hist. 44, 741–761 (2010).
129. Chebbi, N., Mastrototaro, F. & Missaoui, H. Spatial distribution of
ascidians in two Tunisian lagoons of the Mediterranean Sea. Cah.
Biol. Mar. 51, 117–127 (2010).
130. Costelloe, J. F. et al. Are alien ish disadvantaged by extremely
variable low regimes in arid-zone rivers? Mar. Freshw. Res. 61,
857–863 (2010).
131. Gunzburger, M. S., Hughes, W. B., Barichivich, W. J. & Staiger, J. S.
Hurricane storm surge and amphibian communities in
coastal wetlands of northwestern Florida. Wetl. Ecol. Manag. 18,
651–663 (2010).
132. Aymi, R., Rodriguez, M. & Cama, A. Inlux of kittiwakes Rissa
tridactyla into Catalonia (NE Spain) in January 2009 and a review
of previous records. Rev. Catalana Ornitol. 27, 17–24 (2011).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
133. Brown, D. R., Sherry, T. W. & Harris, J. Hurricane Katrina
impacts the breeding bird community in a bottomland
hardwood forest of the Pearl River Basin, Louisiana. Ecol. Manag.
261, 111–119 (2011).
134. Cane, J. H. & Ne, J. L. Predicted fates of ground-nesting bees
in soil heated by wildire: thermal tolerances of life stages and a
survey of nesting depths. Biol. Conserv. 144, 2631–2636 (2011).
135. Canning-Clode, J., Fowler, A. E., Byers, J. E., Carlton, J. T. & Ruiz,
G. M. ‘Caribbean Creep’ chills out: climate change and marine
invasive species. PLoS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.
0029657 (2011).
136. Cochran, P. A. & Stagg, T. W. Response of a ish assemblage to
severe looding in Gilmore Creek, a southeastern Minnesota trout
stream. J. Freshw. Ecol. 26, 77–84 (2011).
137. Convertino, M. et al. Do tropical cyclones shape shorebird
habitat patterns? Biogeoclimatology of snowy plovers in Florida.
PLoS ONE 6, e15683 (2011).
138. Diaz Villanueva, V., Albarino, R. & Canhoto, C. Detritivores
feeding on poor quality food are more sensitive to increased
temperatures. Hydrobiologia 678, 155–165 (2011).
139. Firth, L. B., Knights, A. M. & Bell, S. S. Air temperature and winter
mortality: implications for the persistence of the invasive mussel,
Perna viridis in the intertidal zone of the south-eastern United
States. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 400, 250–256 (2011).
140. Franzke, A. & Reinhold, K. Stressing food plants by altering
water availability aects grasshopper performance. Ecosphere 2,
1–13 (2011).
141. Johnson, S. E. et al. Gray-headed lemur (Eulemur cinereiceps)
abundance and forest structure dynamics at Manombo,
Madagascar. Biotropica 43, 371–379 (2011).
142. Adamo, S. A., Baker, J. L., Lovett, M. M. E. & Wilson, G.
Climate change and temperate zone insects: the tyranny of
thermodynamics meets the world of limited resources. Environ.
Entomol. 41, 1644–1652 (2012).
143. Ammunet, T., Kaukoranta, T., Saikkonen, K., Repo, T. & Klemola,
T. Invading and resident defoliators in a changing climate: cold
tolerance and predictions concerning extreme winter cold as a
range-limiting factor. Ecol. Entomol. 37, 212–220 (2012).
144. Buergi, L. P. & Mills, N. J. Ecologically relevant measures of the
physiological tolerance of light brown apple moth, Epiphyas
postvittana, to high temperature extremes. J. Insect Physiol. 58,
1184–1191 (2012).
145. Dodd, C. K. Jr., Hyslop, N. L. & Oli, M. K. The eects of disturbance
events on abundance and sex ratios of a terrestrial turtle,
Terrapene bauri. Chelonian Conserv. Biol. 11, 44–49 (2012).
146. Elmer, A., Lane, J., Summerville, K. S. & Lown, L. Does low-density
grazing aect butterly (Lepidoptera) colonization of a previously
looded tallgrass prairie reconstruction? Gt. Lakes Entomol. 45,
69–78 (2012).
147. Feeley, H. B., Davis, S., Bruen, M., Blacklocke, S. & Kelly-Quinn,
M. The impact of a catastrophic storm event on benthic
macroinvertebrate communities in upland headwater streams
and potential implications for ecological diversity and
assessment of ecological status. J. Limnol. 71, 299–308 (2012).
148. Angelidis, A. Fulvia fragilis (Forsskal in Niebuhr, 1775) (Bivalvia:
Cardiidae), irst record of an alien mollusk in the Gulf of
Thessaloniki (Inner Thermaikos Gulf, North Aegean Sea, Greece).
J. Biol. Res. 20, 228–232 (2013).
149. Apodaca, J. J., Trexler, J. C., Jue, N. K., Schrader, M. & Travis,
J. Large-scale natural disturbance alters genetic population
structure of the sailin molly, Poecilia latipinna. Am. Nat. 181,
254–263 (2013).
150. Banko, P. C. et al. Response of palila and other subalpine Hawaiian
forest bird species to prolonged drought and habitat degradation
by feral ungulates. Biol. Conserv. 157, 70–77 (2013).
151. Brouwers, N., Matusick, G., Ruthrof, K., Lyons, T. & Hardy, G.
Landscape-scale assessment of tree crown dieback following
extreme drought and heat in a Mediterranean eucalypt forest
ecosystem. Landsc. Ecol. 28, 69–80 (2013).
152. Burk, R. A. & Kennedy, J. H. Invertebrate communities of
groundwater-dependent refugia with varying hydrology and
riparian cover during a supraseasonal drought. J. Freshw. Ecol. 28,
251–270 (2013).
153. Cayetano, L. & Vorburger, C. Eects of heat shock on resistance
to parasitoids and on life history traits in an aphid/endosymbiont
system. PLoS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075966
(2013).
154. Churchill, C. J. Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics
of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North
Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United
States. Aquat. Invasions 8, 389–406 (2013).
155. Clarke, M. W., Thompson, G. J. & Sinclair, B. J. Cold tolerance
of the eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes lavipes
(Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae), in Ontario. Environ. Entomol. 42,
805–810 (2013).
156. Dodd, C. K. Frogs of the United States and Canada (Johns Hopkins
Univ. Press, 2013).
157. Dowd, W. W. & Somero, G. N. Behavior and survival of Mytilus
congeners following episodes of elevated body temperature in
air and seawater. J. Exp. Biol. 216, 502–514 (2013).
158. Esselman, P. C., Schmitter-Soto, J. J. & Allan, J. D. Spatiotemporal
dynamics of the spread of African tilapias (Pisces: Oreochromis
spp.) into rivers of northeastern Mesoamerica. Biol. Invasions 15,
1471–1491 (2013).
159. Fiedler, P. C. et al. Eects of a tropical cyclone on a pelagic
ecosystem from the physical environment to top predators.
Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 484, 1–16 (2013).
160. Fobert, E. et al. Predicting non-native ish dispersal under
conditions of climate change: case study in England of dispersal
and establishment of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus in a
loodplain pond. Ecol. Freshw. Fish. 22, 106–116 (2013).
161. Frank, K. L., Tobin, P. C., Thistle, H. W. Jr. & Kalkstein, L. S.
Interpretation of gypsy moth frontal advance using meteorology
in a conditional algorithm. Int. J. Biometeorol. 57, 459–473 (2013).
162. Genovart, M. et al. Contrasting eects of climatic variability on
the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird. J. Anim.
Ecol. 82, 121–130 (2013).
163. Hocking, D. J., Babbitt, K. J. & Yamasaki, M. Comparison of
silvicultural and natural disturbance eects on terrestrial
salamanders in northern hardwood forests. Biol. Conserv. 167,
194–202 (2013).
164. Jessop, T. S., Letnic, M., Webb, J. K. & Dempster, T. Adrenocortical
stress responses inluence an invasive vertebrate’s itness in an
extreme environment. Proc. R. Soc. B https://doi.org/10.1098/
rspb.2013.1444 (2013).
165. Ju, R.-T., Gao, L., Zhou, X.-H. & Li, B. Tolerance to high temperature
extremes in an invasive lace bug, Corythucha ciliata (Hemiptera:
Tingidae), in subtropical China. PLoS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/
journal.pone.0054372 (2013).
166. Alford, L., Andrade, T. O., Georges, R., Burel, F. & van Baaren,
J. Could behaviour and not physiological thermal tolerance
determine winter survival of aphids in cereal ields? PLoS ONE
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0114982 (2014).
167. Arula, T., Ojaveer, H. & Klais, R. Impact of extreme climate and
bioinvasion on temporal coupling of spring herring (Clupea
harengus m.) larvae and their prey. Mar. Environ. Res. 102,
102–109 (2014).
168. Bauerfeind, S. S. & Fischer, K. Simulating climate change:
temperature extremes but not means diminish performance in a
widespread butterly. Popul. Ecol. 56, 239–250 (2014).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
169. Boersma, K. S., Bogan, M. T., Henrichs, B. A. & Lytle, D. A.
Invertebrate assemblages of pools in arid-land streams have
high functional redundancy and are resistant to severe drying.
Freshw. Biol. 59, 491–501 (2014).
170. Bogan, M. T. et al. Biogeography and conservation of aquatic
fauna in spring-fed tropical canyons of the southern Sonoran
Desert, Mexico. Biodivers. Conserv. 23, 2705–2748 (2014).
171. Bologna, P. A. X. Mangrove loss leads to ish hyperutilization of
seagrass beds in a UNESCO biosphere reserve. J. Fish. Biol. 84,
1620–1625 (2014).
172. Brown, C. R. & Brown, M. B. Breeding time in a migratory songbird
is predicted by drought severity and group size. Ecology 95,
2736–2744 (2014).
173. Calapez, A. R., Elias, C. L., Almeida, S. F. P. & Feio, M. J. Extreme
drought eects and recovery patterns in the benthic communities
of temperate streams. Limnetica 33, 281–296 (2014).
174. Deville, A. S. et al. Impacts of extreme climatic events on the
energetics of long-lived vertebrates: the case of the greater
lamingo facing cold spells in the Camargue. J. Exp. Biol. 217,
3700–3707 (2014).
175. Eash-Loucks, W. E., Kimball, M. E. & Petrinec, K. M. Long-term
changes in an estuarine mud crab community: evaluating the
impact of non-native species. J. Crustac. Biol. 34, 731–738 (2014).
176. Faulkner, K. T., Clusella-Trullas, S., Peck, L. S. & Chown, S. L. Lack
of coherence in the warming responses of marine crustaceans.
Funct. Ecol. 28, 895–903 (2014).
177. Fischer, K., Klockmann, M. & Reim, E. Strong negative eects
of simulated heat waves in a tropical butterly. J. Exp. Biol. 217,
2892–2898 (2014).
178. Gerisch, M. Non-random patterns of functional redundancy
revealed in ground beetle communities facing an extreme lood
event. Funct. Ecol. 28, 1504–1512 (2014).
179. Andraca-Gomez, G. et al. A potential invasion route of Cactoblastis
cactorum within the Caribbean region matches historical
hurricane trajectories. Biol. Invasions 17, 1397–1406 (2015).
180. Andriuzzi, W. S., Pulleman, M. M., Schmidt, O., Faber, J. H. &
Brussaard, L. Anecic earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris) alleviate
negative eects of extreme rainfall events on soil and plants in
ield mesocosms. Plant Soil 397, 103–113 (2015).
181. Bateman, B. L. et al. The importance of range edges for an
irruptive species during extreme weather events. Landsc. Ecol.
30, 1095–1110 (2015).
182. Ellender, B. R. & Weyl, O. L. F. Resilience of imperilled headwater
stream ish to an unpredictable high-magnitude lood. Koedoe 57,
a1258 (2015).
183. Gardner, P. G., Frazer, T. K., Jacoby, C. A. & Yanong, R. P. E.
Reproductive biology of invasive lionish (Pterois spp.). Front. Mar.
Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2015.00007 (2015).
184. Aborgiba, M. et al. Flooding modiies the genotoxic eects of
pollution on a worm, a mussel and two ish species from the Sava
River. Sci. Total Environ. 540, 358–367 (2016).
185. Bielen, A. et al. Dierences in tolerance to anthropogenic stress
between invasive and native bivalves. Sci. Total Environ. 543,
449–459 (2016).
186. Downing, J., Borrero, H. & Liu, H. Dierential impacts from an
extreme cold spell on subtropical vs. tropical specialist bees in
southern Florida. Ecosphere 7, e01302 (2016).
187. Esperk, T., Kjærsgaard, A., Walters, R. J., Berger, D. &
Blanckenhorn, W. U. Plastic and evolutionary responses to heat
stress in a temperate dung ly: negative correlation between basal
and induced heat tolerance? J. Evol. Biol. 29, 900–915 (2016).
188. Foord, S. H. & Fouche, P. S. O. Response of instream animal
communities to a short-term extreme event and to longer-term
cumulative impacts in a strategic water resource area, South
Africa. Afr. J. Aquat. Sci. 41, 29–40 (2016).
189. Foucreau, N., Piscart, C., Puijalon, S. & Hervant, F. Eects of rising
temperature on a functional process: consumption and digestion
of leaf litter by a freshwater shredder. Fundam. Appl. Limnol. 187,
295–306 (2016).
190. Grossman, G. D., Sundin, G. & Ratajczak, R. E. Jr. Long-term
persistence, density dependence and eects of climate change
on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae). Freshw. Biol. 61, 832–847 (2016).
191. James, D. G. Population biology of monarch butterlies, Danaus
plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), at a milkweed-rich
summer breeding site in central Washington. J. Lepid. Soc. 70,
182–193 (2016).
192. Jones, A. R. et al. Tick exposure and extreme climate events
impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.
J. Anim. Ecol. 85, 598–610 (2016).
193. Adams, A. J. et al. Extreme drought, host density, sex, and
bullfrogs inluence fungal pathogen infection in a declining lotic
amphibian. Ecosphere 8, e01740 (2017).
194. Benkwitt, C. E. et al. Is the lionish invasion waning? Evidence from
the Bahamas. Coral Reefs 36, 1255–1261 (2017).
195. Carreira, B. M., Segurado, P., Laurila, A. & Rebelo, R. Can heat
waves change the trophic role of the world’s most invasive
crayish? Diet shifts in Procambarus clarkii. PLoS ONE https://doi.
org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183108 (2017).
196. Dodds, K. J., Hanavan, R. P. & DiGirolomo, M. F. Firewood
collected after a catastrophic wind event: the bark beetle
(Scolytinae) and woodborer (Buprestidae, Cerambycidae)
community present over a 3-year period. Agric. Entomol. 19,
309–320 (2017).
197. Glasheen, P. M., Calvo, C., Meerho, M., Hayes, K. A. & Burks, R.
L. Survival, recovery, and reproduction of apple snails (Pomacea
spp.) following exposure to drought conditions. Freshw. Sci. 36,
316–324 (2017).
198. Andrade, J. T. M. et al. Eect of temperature on behavior,
glycogen content, and mortality in Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker,
1857) (Bivalvia: Mytilidae). J. Limnol. 77, 189–198 (2018).
199. Banahene, N. et al. Thermal sensitivity of gypsy moth
(Lepidoptera: Erebidae) during larval and pupal development.
Environ. Entomol. 47, 1623–1631 (2018).
200. Beaver, J. R. et al. Long-term trends in seasonal plankton
dynamics in Lake Mead (Nevada-Arizona, USA) and implications
for climate change. Hydrobiologia 822, 85–109 (2018).
201. Bino, G., Wassens, S., Kingsford, R. T., Thomas, R. F. & Spencer,
J. Floodplain ecosystem dynamics under extreme dry and wet
phases in semi-arid Australia. Freshw. Biol. 63, 224–241 (2018).
202. Burnett, J. L. et al. Thermal tolerance limits of the Chinese mystery
snail (Bellamya chinensis): implications for management. Am.
Malacol. Bull. 36, 140–144 (2018).
203. Chen, H. et al. Eect of short-term high-temperature exposure
on the life history parameters of Ophraella communa. Sci. Rep. 8,
13969 (2018).
204. Cira, T. M., Koch, R. L., Burkness, E. C., Hutchison, W. D. &
Venette, R. C. Eects of diapause on Halyomorpha halys
(Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) cold tolerance. Environ. Entomol. 47,
997–1004 (2018).
205. Cuddington, K., Sobek-Swant, S., Crosthwaite, J. C., Lyons, D. B. &
Sinclair, B. J. Probability of emerald ash borer impact for Canadian
cities and North America: a mechanistic model. Biol. Invasions 20,
2661–2677 (2018).
206. Dhawan, R., Fischho, I. R. & Ostfeld, R. S. Eects of weather
variability on population dynamics of white-footed mice
(Peromyscus leucopus) and eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus).
J. Mammal. 99, 1436–1443 (2018).
207. Drouillard, K. G. et al. Comparison of thermal tolerance and
standard metabolic rate of two Great Lakes invasive ish species.
J. Gt. Lakes Res 44, 476–481 (2018).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
208. Eben, A., Reifenrath, M., Briem, F., Pink, S. & Vogt, H. Response of
Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) to extreme heat and
dryness. Agric. Entomol. 20, 113–121 (2018).
209. Egly, R. M. & Larson, E. R. Distribution, habitat associations, and
conservation status updates for the pilose crayish Pacifastacus
gambelii (Girard, 1852) and Snake River pilose crayish
Pacifastacus connectens (Faxon,1914) of the western United
States. PeerJ 6, e5668 (2018).
210. Ferreira-Rodriguez, N., Fernandez, I., Leonor Cancela, M. & Pardo,
I. Multibiomarker response shows how native and non-native
freshwater bivalves dierentially cope with heat-wave events.
Aquat. Conserv. 28, 934–943 (2018).
211. Ha, G. & Williams, S. L. Eelgrass community dominated by native
omnivores in Bodega Bay, California, USA. Bull. Mar. Sci. 94,
1333–1353 (2018).
212. Hossain, M. Y., Vadas, R. L. Jr., Ruiz-Carus, R. & Galib, S. M.
Amazon sailin catish Pterygoplichthys pardalis (Loricariidae) in
Bangladesh: a critical review of its invasive threat to native and
endemic aquatic species. Fishes 3, 14 (2018).
213. Adams, P. J., Fontaine, J. B., Huston, R. M. & Fleming, P. A.
Quantifying eicacy of feral pig (Sus scrofa) population
management. Wildl. Res. 46, 587–598 (2019).
214. Arafeh-Dalmau, N. et al. Extreme marine heatwaves alter kelp
forest community near its equatorward distribution limit.
Front. Mar. Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00499 (2019).
215. Barbosa, A. C. C., Vinagre, C., Mizrahi, D. & Flores, A. A. V.
Temperature-driven secondary competence windows may
increase the dispersal potential of invasive sun corals. Mar. Biol.
166, 131 (2019).
216. Behn, K. E. & Baxter, C. V. The trophic ecology of a desert river
ish assemblage: inluence of season and hydrologic variability.
Ecosphere 10, e02583 (2019).
217. Byrd, B. D. et al. Aquatic thermal conditions predict the presence
of native and invasive rock pool Aedes (Diptera: Culicidae) in the
southern Appalachians, USA. J. Vector Ecol. 44, 30–39 (2019).
218. Dodds, W. K. & Whiles, M. R. Freshwater Ecology: Concepts and
Environmental Applications of Limnology 3rd edn (Academic
Press, 2019).
219. Ferreira-Rodriguez, N. Spatial aggregation of native with
non-native freshwater bivalves and activity depletion under
summer heat waves: ‘dangerous liaisons’ in a climate change
context. Hydrobiologia 834, 75–85 (2019).
220. Herbst, D. B., Cooper, S. D., Medhurst, R. B., Wiseman, S. W. &
Hunsaker, C. T. Drought ecohydrology alters the structure and
function of benthic invertebrate communities in mountain
streams. Freshw. Biol. 64, 886–902 (2019).
221. Andraca-Gomez, G. et al. Local dispersal pathways during the
invasion of the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, within North
America and the Caribbean. Sci. Rep. 10, 11012 (2020).
222. Archdeacon, T. P., Diver-Franssen, T. A., Bertrand, N. G. & Grant, J. D.
Drought results in recruitment failure of Rio Grande silvery minnow
(Hybognathus amarus), an imperiled, pelagic broadcast-spawning
minnow. Environ. Biol. Fish. 103, 1033–1044 (2020).
223. Bonsignore, C. P., Vizzari, G., Vono, G. & Bernardo, U. Short-term
cold stress aects parasitism on the Asian chestnut gall wasp
Dryocosmus kuriphilus. Insects 11, 841 (2020).
224. Cruz, D. O. et al. Connectivity but not recruitment: response of
the ish community to a large-scale lood on a heavily regulated
loodplain. Ecohydrology 13, e2194 (2020).
225. Dobosenski, J. A., Strasburg, J. L., Larson, W. A. & Hrabik, T. R.
Investigating population genetics of invasive rainbow smelt in the
Great Lakes Region. J. Gt. Lakes Res 46, 382–390 (2020).
226. Enriquez-Urzelai, U. et al. The roles of acclimation and behaviour
in buering climate change impacts along elevational gradients.
J. Anim. Ecol. 89, 1722–1734 (2020).
227. Fiala, T. et al. Xylosandrus germanus in Central Europe:
spread into and within the Czech Republic. J. Appl. Entomol. 144,
423–433 (2020).
228. Fokidis, H. B. & Brock, T. Hurricane Irma induces divergent
behavioral and hormonal impacts on an urban and forest
population of invasive Anolis lizards: evidence for an urban
resilience hypothesis. J. Urban Ecol. 6, juaa031 (2020).
229. Hopper, G. W. et al. Nowhere to swim: interspeciic responses
of prairie stream ishes in isolated pools during severe drought.
Aquat. Sci. 82, 42 (2020).
230. Hopper, G. W. et al. Biomass loss and change in species
dominance shift stream community excretion stoichiometry
during severe drought. Freshw. Biol. 65, 403–416 (2020).
231. Hraoui, G., Bettinazzi, S., Gendron, A. D., Boisclair, D. & Breton, S.
Mitochondrial thermo-sensitivity in invasive and native freshwater
mussels. J. Exp. Biol. 223, jeb215921 (2020).
232. Huang, Y. et al. Eect of short-term high temperatures on the
growth, development and reproduction in the fruit ly, Bactrocera
tau (Diptera: Tephritidae). Sci. Rep. 10, 6418 (2020).
233. Barbosa, S. Is a handful of genes responsible for the common
starling invasion success? Mol. Ecol. 30, 1361–1363 (2021).
234. Buchsbaum, R. Responses and recovery of salt marsh vegetation
and birds in southeastern Massachusetts to two hydrologic
events: a tidal restoration and an inundation event. Estuaries
Coasts 44, 2132–2141 (2021).
235. Castro, N. et al. Winners and losers: prevalence of non-indigenous
species under simulated marine heatwaves and high propagule
pressure. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 668, 21–38 (2021).
236. Claunch, N. M. et al. Invaders from islands: thermal matching,
potential or lexibility? Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 134, 587–603 (2021).
237. Couper, L. I., Sanders, N. J., Heller, N. E. & Gordon, D. M. Multiyear
drought exacerbates long-term eects of climate on an invasive
ant species. Ecology 102, e03476 (2021).
238. Crespo, D. et al. Does an invasive bivalve outperform its
native congener in a heat wave scenario? A laboratory study
case with Ruditapes decussatus and R. philippinarum. Biology 10,
1284 (2021).
239. Dahl, J. E. et al. Thermal plasticity and sensitivity to insecticides
in populations of an invasive beetle: cyluthrin increases
vulnerability to extreme temperature. Chemosphere 274,
129905 (2021).
240. Gilson, A. R., Coughlan, N. E., Dick, J. T. A. & Kregting, L. Marine
heat waves dierentially aect functioning of native (Ostrea
edulis) and invasive (Crassostrea Magallana gigas) oysters in tidal
pools. Mar. Environ. Res. 172, 105497 (2021).
241. Heath, J. A., Kochert, M. N. & Steenhof, K. Golden eagle
dietary shifts following wildire and shrub loss have negative
consequences for nestling survivorship. Ornithol. Appl. 123,
duab034 (2021).
242. Islam, M. J., Kunzmann, A. & Slater, M. J. Extreme winter
cold-induced osmoregulatory, metabolic, and physiological
responses in European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax)
acclimatized at dierent salinities. Sci. Total Environ. 771,
145202 (2021).
243. Ashe-Jepson, E. et al. Oviposition behaviour and emergence
through time of the small blue butterly (Cupido minimus)
in a nature reserve in Bedfordshire, UK. J. Insect Conserv. 26,
43–58 (2022).
244. Cerrilla, C. et al. Rapid population decline in one of the last
recruiting populations of the endangered Clanwilliam sandish
(Labeo seeberi): the roles of climate change and non-native ish.
Aquat. Conserv. 32, 781–796 (2022).
245. De Jesus, A. D. & Jimenez, A. G. Eects of acute temperature
increases on house sparrow (Passer domesticus) pectoralis
muscle myonuclear domain. J. Exp. Zool. A 337, 150–158 (2022).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
246. Duell, M. E., Gray, M. T., Roe, A. D., MacQuarrie, C. J. K. & Sinclair,
B. J. Plasticity drives extreme cold tolerance of emerald ash borer
(Agrilus planipennis) during a polar vortex. Curr. Res. Insect Sci. 2,
100031 (2022).
247. Messenger, P. S. & Flitters, N. E. Bioclimatic studies of 3 species of
fruit lies in Hawaii. J. Econ. Entomol. 47, 756–765 (1954).
248. Wohlgemuth, R. Uber die Ei- und Larvalentwicklung von
Trogoderma angustum Sol., (Dermestidae). Anz. Schadlingskunde
40, 83–91 (1967).
249. Klein, D. R. Introduction increase and crash of reindeer on St.
Matthew Island. J. Wildl. Manag. 32, 350–367 (1968).
250. Petranka, J. W. The eects of severe winter weather on Plethodon
dorsalis and Plethodon richmondi populations in central Kentucky.
J. Herpetol. 13, 369–371 (1979).
251. Smith, K. G. Drought-induced changes in avian community
structure along a montane sere. Ecology 63, 952–961 (1982).
252. McClure, M. S. Temperature and host availability aect the
distribution of Matsucoccus matsumurae (Kuwana) (Homoptera,
Margarodidae) in Asia and North America. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am.
76, 761–765 (1983).
253. Peckol, P. & Searles, R. B. Eects of seasonality and disturbance
on population development in a Carolina continental-shelf
community. Bull. Mar. Sci. 33, 67–86 (1983).
254. Ridpath, M. G. & Brooker, M. G. The breeding of the wedge-tailed
eagle Aquila audax in relation to its food supply in arid Western
Australia. Ibis 128, 177–194 (1986).
255. Shepherd, P., Crockett, T., De Santo, T. L. & Bildstein, K. L. The
impact of hurricane Hugo on the breeding ecology of wading
birds at Pumpkinseed Island, Hobcaw Barony, South Carolina.
Col. Waterbirds 14, 150–157 (1991).
256. Willig, M. R. & Camilo, G. R. The eect of hurricane Hugo on 6
invertebrate species in the Luquillo experimental forest of Puerto
Rico. Biotropica 23, 455–461 (1991).
257. Woolbright, L. L. The impact of hurricane Hugo on forest frogs in
Puerto Rico. Biotropica 23, 462–467 (1991).
258. Marone, L. Seasonal and year-to-year luctuations of bird
populations and guilds in the Monte Desert, Argentina
(Fluctuaciones Estacionales e Interanuales de Poblaciones y
Gremios de Aves en el Desierto del Monte, Argentina). J. Field
Ornithol. 63, 294–308 (1992).
259. Wauer, R. H. & Wunderle, J. M. The eect of hurricane Hugo on
bird populations on St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. Wilson Bull. 104,
656–673 (1992).
260. Wunderle, J. M., Lodge, D. J. & Waide, R. B. Short-term eects of
hurricane Gilbert on terrestrial bird populations on Jamaica. Auk
109, 148–166 (1992).
261. Letourneur, Y., Harmelin-Vivien, M. & Galzin, R. Impact of
hurricane Firinga on ish community structure on fringing
reefs of Reunion Island, S.W. Indian Ocean. Environ. Biol. Fish. 37,
109–120 (1993).
262. Wunderle, J. M. Responses of bird populations in a Puerto
Rican forest to hurricane Hugo – the irst 18 months. Condor 97,
879–896 (1995).
263. Torres, A. R. & Leberg, P. L. Initial changes in habitat and
abundance of cavity-nesting birds and the northern parula
following hurricane Andrew. Condor 98, 483–490 (1996).
264. Woolbright, L. L. Disturbance inluences long-term population
patterns in the Puerto Rican frog, Eleutherodactylus coqui (Anura:
Leptodactylidae). Biotropica 28, 493–501 (1996).
265. Strong, A. M., Bancroft, G. T. & Jewell, S. D. Hydrological
constraints on tricolored heron and snowy egret resource use.
Condor 99, 894–905 (1997).
266. Letcher, B. H. & Terrick, T. D. Maturation of male age-0 Atlantic
salmon following a massive, localized lood. J. Fish. Biol. 53,
1243–1252 (1998).
267. Miller, A. C. & Payne, B. S. Eects of disturbances on large-
river mussel assemblages. Regul. Rivers Res. Manag. 14,
179–190 (1998).
268. Murphy, M. T., Kerri, L. C. & Karmel, L. M. Winter bird communities
on San Salvador, Bahamas (Comunidades de Aves Invernales en
San Salvador, Bahamas). J. Field Ornithol. 69, 402–414 (1998).
269. Spiller, D. A., Losos, J. B. & Schoener, T. W. Impact of a
catastrophic hurricane on island populations. Science 281,
695–697 (1998).
270. Swilling, W. R., Wooten, M. C., Holler, N. R. & Lynn, W. J. Population
dynamics of Alabama beach mice (Peromyscus polionotus
ammobates) following hurricane Opal. Am. Midl. Nat. 140,
287–298 (1998).
271. Orsi, M. L. & Agostinho, A. A. Fish species introduction by
accidental escape from aquaculture in the high Parana River
Basin. Rev. Bras. Zool. 16, 557–560 (1999).
272. Steenhof, K., Kochert, M. N., Carpenter, L. B. & Lehman, R. N.
Long-term prairie falcon population changes in relation to prey
abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions. Condor
101, 28–41 (1999).
273. Verner, J. & Purcell, K. L. Fluctuating populations of house wrens
and Bewick’s wrens in foothills of the western Sierra Nevada of
California. Condor 101, 219–229 (1999).
274. Labbe, T. R. & Fausch, K. D. Dynamics of intermittent stream
habitat regulate persistence of a threatened ish at multiple
scales. Ecol. Appl. 10, 1774–1791 (2000).
275. Reaser, J. K. Demographic analysis of the Columbia spotted frog
(Rana luteiventris): case study in spatiotemporal variation. Can. J.
Zool. 78, 1158–1167 (2000).
276. Rodríguez‐Durán, A. & Vázquez, R. The bat Artibeus jamaicensis in
Puerto Rico (West Indies): seasonality of diet, activity, and eect
of a hurricane. Acta Chiropt. 03, 53–61 (2001).
277. Sommer, B., Sommer, B., Horwitz, P. & Horwitz, P. Water quality
and macroinvertebrate response to acidiication following
intensiied summer droughts in a Western Australian wetland.
Mar. Freshw. Res. 52, 1015–1021 (2001).
278. Soto, D., Jara, F. & Moreno, C. Escaped salmon in the inner seas,
southern Chile: facing ecological and social conlicts. Ecol. Appl.
11, 1750–1762 (2001).
279. Parchaso, F. & Thompson, J. K. Inluence of hydrologic processes
on reproduction of the introduced bivalve Potamocorbula
amurensis in northern San Francisco Bay, California. Pac. Sci. 56,
329–345 (2002).
280. Roghair, C. N., Dollo, C. A. & Underwood, M. K. Response of a
brook trout population and instream habitat to a catastrophic
lood and debris low. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 131, 718–730 (2002).
281. Schlatter, R. P., Navarro, R. A. & Corti, P. Eects of El Niño Southern
Oscillation on numbers of black-necked swans at Río Cruces
Sanctuary, Chile. Waterbirds 25, 114–122 (2002).
282. Short, J., Kinnear, J. E. & Robley, A. Surplus killing by introduced
predators in Australia—evidence for ineective anti-predator
adaptations in native prey species? Biol. Conserv. 103,
283–301 (2002).
283. Thorp, J. H., Alexander, J. E. & Cobbs, G. A. Coping with warmer,
large rivers: a ield experiment on potential range expansion of
northern quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis). Freshw. Biol. 47,
1779–1790 (2002).
284. Lopez, R. R., Silvy, N. J., Labisky, R. F. & Frank, P. A. Hurricane
impacts on key deer in the Florida Keys. J. Wildl. Manag. 67,
280–288 (2003).
285. Natsumeda, T. Eects of a severe lood on the movements of
Japanese luvial sculpin. Environ. Biol. Fish. 68, 417–424 (2003).
286. West, J. M., Williams, G. D., Madon, S. P. & Zedler, J. B. Integrating
spatial and temporal variability into the analysis of ish food web
linkages in Tijuana Estuary. Environ. Biol. Fish. 67, 297–309 (2003).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
287. Kohno, K., Soemori, H. & Takahashi, K. Seasonal occurrence of
Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) on Ishigaki-jima
Island, with special reference to their sudden occurrence
associated with a typhoon. Appl. Entomol. Zool. 39, 119–125 (2004).
288. Masello, J. F. & Quillfeldt, P. Consequences of La Niña phase of
ENSO for the survival and growth of nestling burrowing parrots
on the Atlantic coast of South America. Emu Austral Ornithol. 104,
337–346 (2004).
289. Schoener, T. W., Spiller, D. A. & Losos, J. B. Variable ecological
eects of hurricanes: the importance of seasonal timing for
survival of lizards on Bahamian islands. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA
101, 177–181 (2004).
290. Specziar, A. Life history pattern and feeding ecology of the
introduced eastern mosquitoish, Gambusia holbrooki, in a
thermal spa under temperate climate, of Lake Heviz, Hungary.
Hydrobiologia 522, 249–260 (2004).
291. Wunderle, J. M., Mercado, J. E., Parresol, B. & Terranova, E. Spatial
ecology of Puerto Rican boas (Epicrates inornatus) in a hurricane
impacted forest. Biotropica 36, 555–571 (2004).
292. Steinhart, G. B., Leonard, N. J., Stein, R. A. & Marschall, E. A.
Eects of storms, angling, and nest predation during angling on
smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) nest success. Can. J.
Fish. Aquat. Sci. 62, 2649–2660 (2005).
293. Tejeda-Cruz, C. & Sutherland, W. J. Cloud forest bird responses to
unusually severe storm damage. Biotropica 37, 88–95 (2005).
294. Vilella, F. J. & Fogarty, J. H. Diversity and abundance of forest frogs
(Anura: Leptodactylidae) before and after hurricane Georges in the
Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. Caribb. J. Sci. 41, 157–162 (2005).
295. White, T. H., Collazo, J. A., Vilella, F. J. & Guerrer, S. A. Eects of
hurricane Georges on habitat use by captive-reared Hispaniolan
parrots (Amazona ventralis) released in the Dominican Republic.
Ornitol. Neotrop. 16, 405–417 (2005).
296. Margaritora, F. G. et al. Recent trophic changes in Lake Pusiano
(northern Italy) with particular reference to the inluence of
hydrodynamics on the zooplankton community. Chem. Ecol. 22,
37–47 (2006).
297. Mouthon, J. & Daufresne, M. Eects of the 2003 heatwave and
climatic warming on mollusc communities of the Saone: a large
lowland river and of its two main tributaries (France). Glob.
Change Biol. 12, 441–449 (2006).
298. Moynahan, B. J., Lindberg, M. S. & Thomas, J. W. Factors
contributing to process variance in annual survival of female
greater sage grouse in Montana. Ecol. Appl. 16, 1529–1538 (2006).
299. Paperno, R. et al. The disruption and recovery of ish communities
in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, following two hurricanes in
2004. Estuaries Coasts 29, 1004–1010 (2006).
300. Pusey, B., Burrows, D., Arthington, A. & Kennard, M. Translocation
and spread of piscivorous ishes in the Burdekin River,
north-eastern Australia. Biol. Invasions 8, 965–977 (2006).
301. Rius, M. & McQuaid, C. D. Wave action and competitive
interaction between the invasive mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
and the indigenous Perna perna in South Africa. Mar. Biol. 150,
69–78 (2006).
302. Ruiz-Campos, G. et al. Distribution and abundance of the
endangered killiish Fundulus lima, and its interaction with exotic
ishes in oases of central Baja California, Mexico. Southwest. Nat.
51, 502–509 (2006).
303. Santos, M., Brites, D. & Laayouni, H. Thermal evolution of
pre-adult life history traits, geometric size and shape, and
developmental stability in Drosophila subobscura. J. Evol. Biol. 19,
2006–2021 (2006).
304. Scorolli, A. L., Lopez Cazorla, A. C. & Tejera, L. A. Unusual
mass mortality of feral horses during a violent rainstorm in
Parque Provincial Tornquist, Argentina. Mastozool. Neotrop. 13,
255–258 (2006).
305. Stevens, P. W., Blewett, D. A. & Casey, J. P. Short-term eects of
a low dissolved oxygen event on estuarine ish assemblages
following the passage of hurricane Charley. Estuaries Coasts 29,
997–1003 (2006).
306. Storms, D. et al. Inluence of hurricane Lothar on red and roe deer
winter diets in the Northern Vosges, France. Ecol. Manag. 237,
164–169 (2006).
307. Switzer, T. S., Winner, B. L., Dunham, N. M., Whittington, J. A.
& Thomas, M. Inluence of sequential hurricanes on nekton
communities in a southeast Florida estuary: short-term eects in
the context of historical variations in freshwater inlow. Estuaries
Coasts 29, 1011–1018 (2006).
308. Tossas, A. G. Eects of hurricane Georges on the resident
avifauna of Maricao State Forest, Puerto Rico. Caribb. J. Sci. 42,
81–87 (2006).
309. Wilson, J. & Peach, W. Impact of an exceptional winter lood on
the population dynamics of bearded tits (Panurus biarmicus).
Anim. Conserv. 9, 463–473 (2006).
310. Yackel Adams, A. A., Skagen, S. K. & Savidge, J. A.
Modeling post-ledging survival of lark buntings in
response to ecological and biological factors. Ecology 87,
178–188 (2006).
311. Robertson, H. A. & Saul, E. K. Conservation of Kakerori
(Pomarea dimidiata) in the Cook Islands in 2005/06 DOC
Research and Develoment Series 285 (New Zealand Department
of Conservation, 2007).
312. Robinson, R. A., Baillie, S. R. & Crick, H. Q. P. Weather-dependent
survival: implications of climate change for passerine population
processes. Ibis 149, 357–364 (2007).
313. Sangiorgio, F., Fonnesu, A. & Mancinelli, G. Eect of drought
frequency and other reach characteristics on invertebrate
communities and litter breakdown in the intermittent
Mediterranean river Pula (Sardinia, Italy). Int. Rev. Hydrobiol. 92,
156–172 (2007).
314. Spiller, D. A. & Schoener, T. W. Alteration of island food-web
dynamics following major disturbance by hurricanes. Ecology 88,
37–41 (2007).
315. Urban, M. C., Phillips, B. L., Skelly, D. K. & Shine, R. The cane toad’s
(Chaunus [Bufo] marinus) increasing ability to invade Australia is
revealed by a dynamically updated range model. Proc. R. Soc. B
274, 1413–1419 (2007).
316. Ward, N. L. & Masters, G. J. Linking climate change and species
invasion: an illustration using insect herbivores. Glob. Change
Biol. 13, 1605–1615 (2007).
317. Watts, B. D. & Byrd, M. A. Impact of hurricane Isabel on bald eagle
nests and reproductive performance in the lower Chesapeake
Bay. Condor 109, 206–209 (2007).
318. Winne, C. T., Willson, J. D., Todd, B. D., Andrews, K. M. & Gibbons,
J. W. Enigmatic decline of a protected population of eastern
kingsnakes, Lampropeltis getula, in South Carolina. Copeia 2007,
507–519 (2007).
319. Kanowski, J., Winter, J. W. & Catterall, C. P. Impacts of cyclone
Larry on arboreal folivorous marsupials endemic to upland
rainforests of the Atherton Tableland, Australia. Austral Ecol. 33,
541–548 (2008).
320. Lee, Y.-F. et al. Spatiotemporal variation in avian diversity and the
short-term eects of typhoons in tropical reef-karst forests on
Taiwan. Zool. Sci. 25, 593–603 (2008).
321. McAllan, B. M., Westman, W., Crowther, M. S. & Dickman, C. R.
Morphology, growth and reproduction in the Australian house
mouse: dierential eects of moderate temperatures. Biol. J. Linn.
Soc. 94, 21–30 (2008).
322. Poirrier, M. A., del Rey, Z. R. & Spalding, E. A. Acute disturbance
of lake Pontchartrain benthic communities by hurricane Katrina.
Estuaries Coasts 31, 1221–1228 (2008).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
323. Powlesland, R. G., Butler, D. J. & Westbrooke, I. M. Was tropical
cyclone Heta or hunting by people responsible for decline of the
lupe (Ducula paciica) (Aves: Columbidae) population on Niue
during 1994–2004? Pac. Sci. 62, 461–471 (2008).
324. Preisser, E. L., Elkinton, J. S. & Abell, K. Evolution of increased cold
tolerance during range expansion of the elongate hemlock scale
Fiorinia externa Ferris (Hemiptera: Diaspididae). Ecol. Entomol. 33,
709–715 (2008).
325. Schneider, K. R. Heat stress in the intertidal: comparing survival
and growth of an invasive and native mussel under a variety of
thermal conditions. Biol. Bull. 215, 253–264 (2008).
326. Tjorve, K. M. C. & Underhill, L. G. Breeding phenology of African
black oystercatchers Haematopus moquini on Robben Island,
South Africa. Ostrich 79, 141–146 (2008).
327. Tossas, A. G. Reproductive success of the Puerto Rican vireo in a
montane habitat. Wilson J. Ornithol. 120, 460–466 (2008).
328. Wakeford, M., Done, T. J. & Johnson, C. R. Decadal trends in
a coral community and evidence of changed disturbance regime.
Coral Reefs 27, 1–13 (2008).
329. Yaukey, P. H. Eects of hurricane Katrina on the urban resident
landbirds of New Orleans, Louisiana. Condor 110, 158–161 (2008).
330. Lopez-Lopez, E., Sedeno-Diaz, J. E., Vega, P. T. & Oliveros, E.
Invasive mollusks Tarebia granifera Lamarck, 1822 and Corbicula
luminea Mueller, 1774 in the Tuxpam and Tecolutla rivers, Mexico:
spatial and seasonal distribution patterns. Aquat. Invasions 4,
435–450 (2009).
331. Neveu, A. Incidence of climate on common frog breeding:
long-term and short-term changes. Acta Oecol 35, 671–678
(2009).
332. Piazza, B. P. & La Peyre, M. K. The eect of hurricane Katrina
on nekton communities in the tidal freshwater marshes of
Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 83,
97–104 (2009).
333. Piessens, K., Adriaens, D., Jacquemyn, H. & Honnay, O. Synergistic
eects of an extreme weather event and habitat fragmentation on
a specialised insect herbivore. Oecologia 159, 117–126 (2009).
334. Powell, B. E., Brighwell, R. J. & Silverman, J. Eect of an invasive
and native ant on a ield population of the black citrus aphid
(Hemiptera: Aphididae). Environ. Entomol. 38, 1618–1625 (2009).
335. Pries, A. J., Branch, L. C. & Miller, D. L. Impact of hurricanes on
habitat occupancy and spatial distribution of beach mice. J.
Mammal. 90, 841–850 (2009).
336. Schriever, T. A., Ramspott, J., Crother, B. I. & Fontenot, C. L. Eects
of hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita on a southeastern Louisiana
herpetofauna. Wetlands 29, 112–122 (2009).
337. Kawabata, Y. et al. Eects of a tropical cyclone on the
distribution of hatchery-reared black-spot tuskish Choerodon
schoenleinii determined by acoustic telemetry. J. Fish. Biol. 77,
627–642 (2010).
338. Kroon, F. J. & Ludwig, J. A. Response and recovery of ish and
invertebrate assemblages following looding in ive tributaries of
a sub-tropical river. Mar. Freshw. Res. 61, 86–96 (2010).
339. Leberinger, K., Bohman, I. & Herrmann, J. Drought impact on
stream detritivores: experimental eects on leaf litter breakdown
and life cycles. Hydrobiologia 652, 247–254 (2010).
340. Luja, V. H. & Rodriguez-Estrella, R. Are tropical cyclones sources
of natural selection? Observations on the abundance and
behavior of frogs aected by extreme climatic events in the Baja
California Peninsula, Mexico. J. Arid Environ. 74, 1345–1347 (2010).
341. Martin, A. P. The conservation genetics of Ash Meadows pupish
populations. I. The warm springs pupish Cyprinodon nevadensis
pectoralis. Conserv. Genet. 11, 1847–1857 (2010).
342. McGlinn, D. J., Churchwell, R. T. & Palmer, M. W. Eects of a
tornado on birds in a cross timbers community. Southwest. Nat.
55, 460–466 (2010).
343. Miranda, N. A. F., Perissinotto, R. & Appleton, C. C. Salinity and
temperature tolerance of the invasive freshwater gastropod
Tarebia granifera. S. Afr. J. Sci. 106, 55–61 (2010).
344. Rittenhouse, C. D. et al. Avifauna response to hurricanes:
regional changes in community similarity. Glob. Change Biol. 16,
905–917 (2010).
345. Rousseau, Y., Galzin, R. & Maréchal, J.-P. Impact of hurricane Dean
on coral reef benthic and ish structure of Martinique, French
West Indies. Cybium 34, 243–256 (2010).
346. Stevens, P. W., Blewett, D. A., Champeau, T. R. & Staord, C. J.
Posthurricane recovery of riverine fauna relected in the diet of an
apex predator. Estuaries Coasts 33, 59–66 (2010).
347. Stone, A. C., Gehring, C. A. & Whitham, T. G. Drought negatively
aects communities on a foundation tree: growth rings predict
diversity. Oecologia 164, 751–761 (2010).
348. Zhang, F.-P., Zhong, J.-H., Jiang, B.-F., Li, S.-W. & Miao, F.-Q.
Thermal tolerance in the pine armored scale, Hemiberlesia
pitysophila Takagi (Homoptera: Diaspididae), along an altitudinal
gradient. Acta Entomol. Sin. 53, 68–75 (2010).
349. Kano, Y. et al. Fluctuation and variation in stream-ish
assemblages after a catastrophic lood in the Miyagawa River,
Japan. Environ. Biol. Fish. 92, 447–460 (2011).
350. Kerezsy, A., Balcombe, S. R., Arthington, A. H. & Bunn, S. E.
Continuous recruitment underpins ish persistence in the arid
rivers of far-western Queensland, Australia. Mar. Freshw. Res. 62,
1178–1190 (2011).
351. Leuven, R. S. E. W. et al. Dierences in sensitivity of native and
exotic ish species to changes in river temperature. Curr. Zool. 57,
852–862 (2011).
352. Lewis, M. A., Goodman, L. R., Chancy, C. A. & Jordan, S. J. Fish
assemblages in three northwest Florida urbanized bayous before
and after two hurricanes. J. Coast. Res. 27, 35–45 (2011).
353. Lorenz, O. T. & O’Connell, M. T. Establishment and post-hurricane
survival of the non-native Rio Grande cichlid (Herichthys
cyanoguttatus) in the Greater New Orleans Metropolitan Area.
Southeast. Nat. 10, 673–686 (2011).
354. Lue, Z.-C. & Wan, F.-H. Using double-stranded RNA to explore
the role of heat shock protein genes in heat tolerance in Bemisia
tabaci (Gennadius). J. Exp. Biol. 214, 764–769 (2011).
355. Maazouzi, C., Piscart, C., Legier, F. & Hervant, F. Ecophysiological
responses to temperature of the ‘killer shrimp’ Dikerogammarus
villosus: is the invader really stronger than the native Gammarus
pulex? Comp. Biochem. Physiol. A 159, 268–274 (2011).
356. Oliveira, M. D., Calheiros, D. F., Jacobi, C. M. & Hamilton, S. K.
Abiotic factors controlling the establishment and abundance of
the invasive golden mussel Limnoperna fortunei. Biol. Invasions
13, 717–729 (2011).
357. Pujolar, J. M. et al. The eect of recurrent loods on genetic
composition of marble trout populations. PLoS ONE 6,
e23822 (2011).
358. Schlief, J. & Mutz, M. Leaf decay processes during and after a
supra-seasonal hydrological drought in a temperate lowland
stream. Int. Rev. Hydrobiol. 96, 633–655 (2011).
359. Soster, F. M., McCall, P. L. & Herrmann, K. A. Decadal changes in
the benthic invertebrate community in western Lake Erie between
1981 and 2004. J. Gt. Lakes Res. 37, 226–237 (2011).
360. Yoon, J.-D., Jang, M.-H. & Joo, G.-J. Eect of looding on ish
assemblages in small streams in South Korea. Limnology 12,
197–203 (2011).
361. Zhou, Z.-S., Guo, J.-Y., Michaud, J. P., Li, M. & Wan, F.-H. Variation
in cold hardiness among geographic populations of the
ragweed beetle, Ophraella communa LeSage (Coleoptera:
Chrysomelidae), a biological control agent of Ambrosia
artemisiifolia L. (Asterales: Asteraceae), in China. Biol. Invasions
13, 659–667 (2011).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
362. Kiernan, J. D. & Moyle, P. B. Flows, droughts, and aliens: factors
aecting the ish assemblage in a Sierra Nevada, California,
stream. Ecol. Appl. 22, 1146–1161 (2012).
363. Ramírez-Barajas, P. J., Islebe, G. A. & Calmé, S. Impact of hurricane
Dean (2007) on game species of the Selva Maya, Mexico.
Biotropica 44, 402–411 (2012).
364. Ramniwas, S., Kajla, B. & Parkash, R. Extreme physiological
tolerance leads the wide distribution of Zaprionus indianus
(Diptera: Drosophilidae) in temperate world. Acta Entomol. Sin.
55, 1295–1305 (2012).
365. Reichert, B. E., Cattau, C. E., Fletcher, R. J. Jr., Kendall, W. L. &
Kitchens, W. M. Extreme weather and experience inluence
reproduction in an endangered bird. Ecology 93, 2580–2589
(2012).
366. Sherley, R. B., Ludynia, K., Underhill, L. G., Jones, R. & Kemper,
J. Storms and heat limit the nest success of bank cormorants:
implications of future climate change for a surface-nesting
seabird in southern Africa. J. Ornithol. 153, 441–455 (2012).
367. Sobek-Swant, S., Crosthwaite, J. C., Lyons, D. B. & Sinclair, B. J.
Could phenotypic plasticity limit an invasive species? Incomplete
reversibility of mid-winter deacclimation in emerald ash borer.
Biol. Invasions 14, 115–125 (2012).
368. Sorribas, J., van Baaren, J. & Garcia-Mari, F. Eects of climate on
the introduction, distribution and biotic potential of parasitoids:
applications to biological control of California red scale. Biol.
Control 62, 103–112 (2012).
369. Strand, A. et al. Impact of an icy winter on the Paciic oyster
(Crassostrea gigas Thunberg, 1793) populations in Scandinavia.
Aquat. Invasions 7, 433–440 (2012).
370. Thomas, S. M., Obermayr, U., Fischer, D., Kreyling, J. &
Beierkuhnlein, C. Low-temperature threshold for egg survival
of a post-diapause and non-diapause European aedine strain,
Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). Parasit. Vectors 5,
100 (2012).
371. Verbrugge, L. N. H., Schipper, A. M., Huijbregts, M. A. J., Van der
Velde, G. & Leuven, R. S. E. W. Sensitivity of native and non-native
mollusc species to changing river water temperature and salinity.
Biol. Invasions 14, 1187–1199 (2012).
372. Weir, S. M. & Salice, C. J. High tolerance to abiotic stressors
and invasion success of the slow-growing freshwater snail,
Melanoides tuberculatus. Biol. Invasions 14, 385–394 (2012).
373. Yao, C.-L. & Somero, G. N. The impact of acute temperature
stress on hemocytes of invasive and native mussels (Mytilus
galloprovincialis and Mytilus californianus): DNA damage,
membrane integrity, apoptosis and signaling pathways. J. Exp.
Biol. 215, 4267–4277 (2012).
374. Yaukey, P. H. Population changes of urban land birds in the three
years following the hurricane Katrina lood. Nat. Hazards 61,
1203–1217 (2012).
375. Kats, L. B. et al. Eects of natural looding and manual trapping on
the facilitation of invasive crayish–native amphibian coexistence
in a semi-arid perennial stream. J. Arid Environ. 98, 109–112 (2013).
376. Kerezsy, A., Balcombe, S. R., Tischler, M. & Arthington, A. H. Fish
movement strategies in an ephemeral river in the Simpson Desert,
Australia. Austral Ecol. 38, 798–808 (2013).
377. Ledger, M. E. et al. in Advances in Ecological Research Vol. 48
(eds Guy Woodward, G. & O’Gorman, E. J.) 343–395 (Academic
Press, 2013).
378. Lindsay, A. R. & Haas, S. C. G. DNA from feces and museum
specimens conirms a irst state record bird. Occas. Pap. Mus.
Zool. Univ. Mich. 742, 1–10 (2013).
379. Martinez, J. E., Jimenez-Franco, M. V., Zuberogoitia, I.,
Leon-Ortega, M. & Calvo, J. F. Assessing the short-term eects of
an extreme storm on Mediterranean forest raptors. Acta Oecol 48,
47–53 (2013).
380. Milner, A. M., Robertson, A. L., McDermott, M. J., Klaar, M. J.
& Brown, L. E. Major lood disturbance alters river ecosystem
evolution. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 137–141 (2013).
381. Moreno-Valcarcel, R., Oliva-Paterna, F. J., Arribas, C. &
Fernandez-Delgado, C. Fish composition and assemblage in
the anthropogenic-modiied tidally-restricted Donana (Spain)
marshlands. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 119, 54–63 (2013).
382. Morgan, E., O’ Riordan, R. M. & Culloty, S. C. Climate change
impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer. Ecol.
Evol. 3, 581–594 (2013).
383. Munroe, D. et al. Oyster mortality in Delaware Bay: impacts and
recovery from hurricane Irene and tropical storm Lee. Estuar.
Coast. Shelf Sci. 135, 209–219 (2013).
384. Parker, M. L., Arnold, W. S., Geiger, S. P., Gorman, P. & Leone, E. H.
Impacts of freshwater management activities on eastern oyster
(Crassostrea virginica) density and recruitment: recovery and
long-term stability in seven Florida estuaries. J. Shellish Res. 32,
695–708 (2013).
385. Raynor, E. J., Pierce, A. R., Owen, T. M., Leumas, C. M. & Rohwer,
F. C. Short-term demographic responses of a coastal waterbird
community after two major hurricanes. Waterbirds 36, 88–93 (2013).
386. Rongo, T. & van Woesik, R. The eects of natural disturbances,
reef state, and herbivorous ish densities on ciguatera poisoning
in Rarotonga, southern Cook Islands. Toxicon 64, 87–95 (2013).
387. Schoeman, C. S. & Samways, M. J. Temporal shifts in interactions
between alien trees and the alien Argentine ant on native ants. J.
Insect Conserv. 17, 911–919 (2013).
388. Sentis, A., Hemptinne, J.-L. & Brodeur, J. Eects of simulated heat
waves on an experimental plant-herbivore-predator food chain.
Glob. Change Biol. 19, 833–842 (2013).
389. Navarro, F. K. S. P., de Souza Rezende, R. & Goncalves Junior, J. F.
Experimental assessment of temperature increase and presence
of predator carcass changing the response of invertebrate
shredders. Biota Neotrop. 13, 28–33 (2013).
390. Smith, W. H. Amphibians and large, infrequent forest
disturbances: an extreme wind event facilitates habitat creation
and anuran breeding. Herpetol. Conserv. Biol. 8, 732–740 (2013).
391. Spinuzzi, S., Schneider, K. R., Walters, L. J., Yuan, W. S. & Homan,
E. A. Tracking the distribution of non-native marine invertebrates
(Mytella charruana, Perna viridis and Megabalanus coccopoma)
along the south-eastern USA. Mar. Biodivers. Rec. 6, e55 (2013).
392. Sustek, Z. Carabid communities (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in
spruce forests in Central Europe. Olten. Stud. Comun. Stiint. Nat.
29, 140–154 (2013).
393. Walter, S. T., Carloss, M. R., Hess, T. J. & Leberg, P. L. Hurricane,
habitat degradation, and land loss eects on brown pelican
nesting colonies. J. Coast. Res. 29, 187–195 (2013).
394. Wu, L.-H., Wang, C.-P. & Wu, W.-J. Eects of temperature
and adult nutrition on the development of Acanthoscelides
macrophthalmus, a natural enemy of an invasive tree, Leucaena
leucocephala. Biol. Control 65, 322–329 (2013).
395. Yu, J., Tang, D., Li, Y., Huang, Z. & Chen, G. Increase in ish
abundance during two typhoons in the South China Sea. Adv.
Space Res. 51, 1734–1749 (2013).
396. Zahorska, E., Balazova, M. & Surova, M. Morphology, sexual
dimorphism and size at maturation in topmouth gudgeon
(Pseudorasbora parva) from the heated Lake Lichenskie
(Poland). Knowl. Manage. Aquat. Ecosyst. https://doi.org/10.1051/
kmae/2013074 (2013).
397. Kerezsy, A., Arthington, A. H. & Balcombe, S. R. Fish distribution
in far western Queensland, Australia: the importance of habitat,
connectivity and natural lows. Diversity 6, 380–395 (2014).
398. Lofgren, S., Grandin, U. & Stendera, S. Long-term eects on
nitrogen and benthic fauna of extreme weather events: examples
from two Swedish headwater streams. Ambio 43, 58–76 (2014).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
399. Narayan, E. J. & Hero, J.-M. Acute thermal stressor increases
glucocorticoid response but minimizes testosterone and
locomotor performance in the cane toad (Rhinella marina).
PLoS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092090 (2014).
400. Peacock, D., Wakelin-King, G. A. & Shepherd, B. Cane toads
(Rhinella marina) in south-western Queensland: invasion front,
spread and how Cooper Creek geomorphology could enable
invasion into north-eastern South Australia. Aust. J. Zool. 62,
366–373 (2014).
401. Richards, D. R., Maltby, L., Moggridge, H. L. & Warren, P. H.
European water voles in a reconnected lowland river
loodplain: habitat preferences and distribution patterns
following the restoration of looding. Wetl. Ecol. Manag. 22,
539–549 (2014).
402. Zahorska, E., Kovac, V., Svolikova, K. & Kapusta, A. Reproductive
parameters of topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva)
from a heated Lake Lichenskie (Poland). Cent. Eur. J. Biol. 9,
212–219 (2014).
403. Kitanishi, S. & Yamamoto, T. The eects of severe looding on
native masu salmon and nonnative rainbow trout in the Atsuta
River, Hokkaido, Japan. J. Freshw. Ecol. 30, 589–596 (2015).
404. Novais, A., Souza, A. T., Ilarri, M., Pascoal, C. & Sousa, R. From
water to land: how an invasive clam may function as a resource
pulse to terrestrial invertebrates. Sci. Total Environ. 538,
664–671 (2015).
405. Piggott, J. J., Townsend, C. R. & Matthaei, C. D. Climate warming
and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream
macroinvertebrate community dynamics. Glob. Change Biol. 21,
1887–1906 (2015).
406. Selwood, K. E. et al. A bust but no boom: responses of loodplain
bird assemblages during and after prolonged drought. J. Anim.
Ecol. 84, 1700–1710 (2015).
407. Senner, N. R. et al. When Siberia came to the Netherlands: the
response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring
weather event. J. Anim. Ecol. 84, 1164–1176 (2015).
408. Stubbington, R., Boulton, A. J., Little, S. & Wood, P. J. Changes in
invertebrate assemblage composition in benthic and hyporheic
zones during a severe supraseasonal drought. Freshw. Sci. 34,
344–354 (2015).
409. Tinsley, R. C., Stott, L. C., Viney, M. E., Mable, B. K. & Tinsley, M. C.
Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species,
Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events. Biol. Invasions 17,
3183–3195 (2015).
410. Vallieres, R., Rochefort, S., Berthiaume, R., Hebert, C. & Bauce, E.
Eect of simulated fall heat waves on cold hardiness and winter
survival of hemlock looper, Lambdina iscellaria (Lepidoptera:
Geometridae). J. Insect Physiol. 73, 60–69 (2015).
411. Woodward, G., Bonada, N., Feeley, H. B. & Giller, P. S. Resilience
of a stream community to extreme climatic events and
long-term recovery from a catastrophic lood. Freshw. Biol. 60,
2497–2510 (2015).
412. Kangur, K. et al. Changes in water temperature and chemistry
preceding a massive kill of bottom-dwelling ish: an analysis of
high-frequency buoy data of shallow Lake Vortsjarv (Estonia).
Inland Waters 6, 535–542 (2016).
413. Karahan, A., Douek, J., Paz, G. & Rinkevich, B. Population genetics
features for persistent, but transient, Botryllus schlosseri
(Urochordata) congregations in a central Californian marina.
Mol. Phylogenet. Evol. 101, 19–31 (2016).
414. Klockmann, M., Schroeder, U., Karajoli, F. & Fischer, K.
Simulating eects of climate change under direct and diapause
development in a butterly. Entomol. Exp. Appl. 158, 60–68 (2016).
415. Mazzotti, F. J. et al. Large reptiles and cold temperatures: do
extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in
Florida? Ecosphere 7, e01439 (2016).
416. Olabarrial, C. et al. Response of two mytilids to a heatwave:
the complex interplay of physiology, behaviour and ecological
interactions. PLoS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.
0164330 (2016).
417. Schulte, S. A. & Simons, T. R. Hurricane disturbance beneits
nesting American oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus).
Waterbirds 39, 327–337 (2016).
418. Su, N.-Y., Guidry, E., Mullins, A. J. & Cotonne, C. Reinvasion
dynamics of subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae)
following the elimination of all detectable colonies in a large area.
J. Econ. Entomol. 109, 809–814 (2016).
419. Vander Vorste, R., Malard, F. & Datry, T. Is drift the primary process
promoting the resilience of river invertebrate communities?
A manipulative ield experiment in an intermittent alluvial river.
Freshw. Biol. 61, 1276–1292 (2016).
420. Vander Vorste, R., Corti, R., Sagouis, A. & Datry, T. Invertebrate
communities in gravel-bed, braided rivers are highly resilient to
low intermittence. Freshw. Sci. 35, 164–177 (2016).
421. Wang, X. et al. Greater impacts from an extreme cold spell on
tropical than temperate butterlies in southern China. Ecosphere
7, e01315 (2016).
422. Wiman, N. G. et al. Drosophila suzukii population response
to environment and management strategies. J. Pest Sci. 89,
653–665 (2016).
423. Klockmann, M., Guenter, F. & Fischer, K. Heat resistance
throughout ontogeny: body size constrains thermal tolerance.
Glob. Change Biol. 23, 686–696 (2017).
424. Kosmala, G., Christian, K., Brown, G. & Shine, R. Locomotor
performance of cane toads diers between native-range and
invasive populations. R. Soc. Open Sci. https://doi.org/10.1098/
rsos.170517 (2017).
425. Leicht, K., Seppala, K. & Seppala, O. Potential for adaptation to
climate change: family-level variation in itness-related traits and
their responses to heat waves in a snail population. BMC Evol.
Biol. 17, 140 (2017).
426. Li, J. et al. Growth, longevity, and climate–growth relationships of
Corbicula luminea (Muller, 1774) in Hongze Lake, China. Freshw.
Sci. 36, 595–608 (2017).
427. Lu, Z. et al. Dierences in the high-temperature tolerance of
Aphis craccivora (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on cotton and soybean:
implications for ecological niche switching among hosts. Appl.
Entomol. Zool. 52, 9–18 (2017).
428. Mayes, K. B., Wilde, G. R., McGarrity, M. E., Wolaver, B. D. &
Caldwell, T. G. Watershed-scale conservation of native ishes in
the Brazos River Basin, Texas. Am. Fish. S. S. 91, 315–343 (2019).
429. McDowell, W. G., McDowell, W. H. & Byers, J. E. Mass mortality of
a dominant invasive species in response to an extreme climate
event: implications for ecosystem function. Limnol. Oceanogr. 62,
177–188 (2017).
430. Nelson, D. et al. Experimental whole-stream warming alters
community size structure. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 2618–2628 (2017).
431. Nuhfer, A. J., Zorn, T. G. & Wills, T. C. Eects of reduced
summer lows on the brook trout population and temperatures
of a groundwater-inluenced stream. Ecol. Freshw. Fish. 26,
108–119 (2017).
432. O’Donnell, K. & Groden, E. Variation in captures of adult winter
moths (Operophtera brumata) in coastal Maine over two years.
Northeast. Nat. 24, B72–B80 (2017).
433. Raine, A. F., Holmes, N. D., Travers, M., Cooper, B. A. & Day, R.
H. Declining population trends of Hawaiian petrel and Newell’s
shearwater on the island of Kaua’i, Hawaii, USA. Condor 119,
405–415 (2017).
434. Rusk, B. L. Long-term population monitoring of the critically
endangered Grenada dove (Leptotila wellsi) on Grenada, West
Indies. J. Caribb. Ornithol. 30, 49–56 (2017).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
435. Schoener, T. W., Kolbe, J. J., Leal, M., Losos, J. B. & Spiller, D. A. A
multigenerational ield experiment on eco-evolutionary dynamics
of the inluential lizard Anolis sagrei: a mid-term report. Copeia
105, 543–549 (2017).
436. Wade, R. N., Karley, A. J., Johnson, S. N. & Hartley, S. E. Impact of
predicted precipitation scenarios on multitrophic interactions.
Funct. Ecol. 31, 1647–1658 (2017).
437. Kenworthy, J. M., Davoult, D. & Lejeusne, C. Compared stress
tolerance to short-term exposure in native and invasive tunicates
from the NE Atlantic: when the invader performs better. Mar. Biol.
165, 164 (2018).
438. Lynch, D. T., Leasure, D. R. & Magoulick, D. D. The inluence of
drought on low ecology relationships in Ozark Highland streams.
Freshw. Biol. 63, 946–968 (2018).
439. Mason-Romo, E. D. et al. Long-term population dynamics of
small mammals in tropical dry forests, eects of unusual climate
events, and implications for management and conservation.
Ecol. Manag. 426, 123–133 (2018).
440. Mutamiswa, R., Chidawanyika, F. & Nyamukondiwa, C. Superior
basal and plastic thermal responses to environmental
heterogeneity in invasive exotic stemborer Chilo partellus
Swinhoe over indigenous Busseola fusca (Fuller) and Sesamia
calamistis Hampson. Physiol. Entomol. 43, 108–119 (2018).
441. Rachalewski, M., Kobak, J., Szczerkowska-Majchrzak, E. &
Bacela-Spychalska, K. Some like it hot: factors impacting
thermal preferences of two Ponto-Caspian amphipods
Dikerogammarus villosus (Sovinsky, 1894) and Dikerogammarus
haemobaphes (Eichwald, 1841). PeerJ https://doi.org/10.7717/
peerj.4871 (2018).
442. Ramirez, A. et al. Drought facilitates species invasions in an urban
stream: results from a long-term study of tropical island ish
assemblage structure. Front. Ecol. Evol. https://doi.org/10.3389/
fevo.2018.00115 (2018).
443. Verberk, W. C. E. P., Leuven, R. S. E. W., van der Velde, G. &
Gabel, F. Thermal limits in native and alien freshwater peracarid
Crustacea: the role of habitat use and oxygen limitation. Funct.
Ecol. 32, 926–936 (2018).
444. Kantola, T. et al. Hemlock woolly adelgid niche models from the
invasive eastern North American range with projections to native
ranges and future climates. IForest 12, 149–159 (2019).
445. Landeira-Dabarca, A., Perez, J., Graca, M. A. S. & Boyero, L. Joint
eects of temperature and litter quality on detritivore-mediated
breakdown in streams. Aquat. Sci. 81, 1 (2019).
446. Maiztegui, T., Baigun, C. R. M., Garcia de Souza, J. R., Weyl, O. L. F.
& Colautti, D. C. Population responses of common carp Cyprinus
carpio to loods and droughts in the Pampean wetlands of South
America. NeoBiota 48, 25–44 (2019).
447. McDowell, W. G. & Sousa, R. Mass mortality events of invasive
freshwater bivalves: current understanding and potential
directions for future research. Front. Ecol. Evol. https://doi.org/
10.3389/fevo.2019.00331 (2019).
448. Morey, A. C., Venette, R. C. & Hutchison, W. D. Sublethal eects of
subzero temperatures on the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas
postvittana: itness costs in response to partial freezing. Insect Sci.
26, 311–321 (2019).
449. Negishi, J. N. et al. High resilience of aquatic community to
a 100-year lood in a gravel-bed river. Landsc. Ecol. Eng. 15,
143–154 (2019).
450. Perkin, J. S. et al. Extreme drought causes ish recruitment
failure in a fragmented Great Plains riverscape. Ecohydrology 12,
e2120 (2019).
451. Puterka, G. J. et al. Distribution of a new invasive species, Sipha
maydis (Heteroptera: Aphididae), on cereals and wild grasses in
the Southern Plains and Rocky Mountain States. J. Econ. Entomol.
112, 1713–1721 (2019).
452. Sanchez-Ramos, I., Gomez-Casado, E., Fernandez, C. E. &
Gonzalez-Nunez, M. Reproductive potential and population
increase of Drosophila suzukii at constant temperatures. Entomol.
Gen. 39, 103–115 (2019).
453. Toland, A. A., Wantuch, H. A., Mullins, D. E., Kuhar, T. P. &
Salom, S. M. Seasonal assessment of supercooling points for
two introduced and one native Laricobius spp. (Coleoptera:
Derodontidae), predators of Adelgidae. Insects 10, 426 (2019).
454. Yang, R. et al. Function of heat shock protein 70 in the thermal
stress response of Dermatophagoides farinae and establishment
of an RNA interference method. Gene 705, 82–89 (2019).
455. Kamp, J., Trappe, J., Duebbers, L. & Funke, S. Impacts of
windstorm-induced forest loss and variable reforestation on bird
communities. For. Ecol. Manag. 478, 118504 (2020).
456. Majdi, N., Utho, J., Traunspurger, W., Laaille, P. & Maire, A.
Eect of water warming on the structure of bioilm-dwelling
communities. Ecol. Indic. 117, 106622 (2020).
457. Marques-Santos, F. & Dingemanse, N. J. Weather eects
on nestling survival of great tits vary according to the
developmental stage. J. Avian Biol. https://doi.org/10.1111/
jav.02421 (2020).
458. Mutamiswa, R., Tarusikirwa, V., Nyamukondiwa, C. &
Chidawanyika, F. Fluctuating environments impact thermal
tolerance in an invasive insect species Bactrocera dorsalis
(Diptera: Tephritidae). J. Appl. Entomol. 144, 885–896 (2020).
459. Paalme, T., Torn, K., Martin, G., Kotta, I. & Suursaar, U. Littoral
benthic communities under eect of heat wave and upwelling
events in the Ne Baltic Sea. J. Coast. Res. 95, 133–137 (2020).
460. Pernecker, B., Mauchart, P. & Csabai, Z. What to do if streams
go dry? Behaviour of Balkan goldenring (Cordulegaster heros,
Odonata) larvae in a simulated drought experiment in SW
Hungary. Ecol. Entomol. 45, 1457–1465 (2020).
461. Shiels, A. B., Lombard, C. D., Shiels, L. & Hillis-Starr, Z. Invasive
rat establishment and changes in small mammal populations on
Caribbean Islands following two hurricanes. Glob. Ecol. Conserv.
22, e00986 (2020).
462. Truchy, A. et al. Habitat patchiness, ecological connectivity
and the uneven recovery of boreal stream ecosystems
from an experimental drought. Glob. Change Biol. 26,
3455–3472 (2020).
463. van den Burg, M. P., Brisbane, J. L. K. & Knapp, C. R. Post-hurricane
relief facilitates invasion and establishment of two invasive alien
vertebrate species in the Commonwealth of Dominica, West
Indies. Biol. Invasions 22, 195–203 (2020).
464. Lavoie, M., Jenouvrier, S., Blanchette, P., Lariviere, S. & Tremblay,
J.-P. Extreme climate events limit northern range expansion of
wild turkeys. Oecologia 197, 633–650 (2021).
465. Lombardero, M. J., Castedo-Dorado, F. & Ayres, M. P. Extreme
climatic events aect populations of Asian chestnut gall wasps,
Dryocosmus kuriphilus, but do not stop the spread. Agric.
Entomol. 23, 473–488 (2021).
466. Ma, G., Homann, A. A. & Ma, C. S. Are extreme high
temperatures at low or high latitudes more likely to inhibit the
population growth of a globally distributed aphid? J. Therm.
Biol. 98, 102936 (2021).
467. Mantovano, T. et al. A global analysis of the susceptibility of
river basins to invasion of a freshwater zooplankton (Daphnia
lumholtzi). Freshw. Biol. 66, 683–698 (2021).
468. Marrack, L. et al. Assessing the spatial–temporal response of
groundwater-fed anchialine ecosystems to sea-level rise for
coastal zone management. Aquat. Conserv. 31, 853–869 (2021).
469. Mills, R. & McGraw, K. J. Cool birds: facultative use by an
introduced species of mechanical air conditioning systems
during extremely hot outdoor conditions. Biol. Lett. https://doi.
org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0813 (2021).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
470. Nogueira, J. G., Lopes-Lima, M., Varandas, S., Teixeira, A. &
Sousa, R. Eects of an extreme drought on the endangered pearl
mussel Margaritifera margaritifera: a before/after assessment.
Hydrobiologia 848, 3003–3013 (2021).
471. Pazourkova, E. et al. Impacts of an extreme lood on the
ecosystem of a headwater stream. J. Limnol. https://doi.org/
10.4081/jlimnol.2021.1998 (2021).
472. Perez, J., Correa-Araneda, F., Lopez-Rojo, N., Basaguren, A. &
Boyero, L. Extreme temperature events alter stream ecosystem
functioning. Ecol. Indic. 121, 106984 (2021).
473. Rodgers, K. S. et al. Impact to coral reef populations at Ha’ena
and Pila’a, Kaua’i, following a record 2018 Freshwater lood event.
Diversity 13, 66 (2021).
474. Simaz, O. & Szucs, M. Heat waves aect an invasive herbivore
and its parasitoid dierentially with impacts beyond the irst
generation. Ecosphere 12, e03796 (2021).
475. Wehner, K., Simons, N. K., Bluethgen, N. & Heetho, M. Drought,
windthrow and forest operations strongly aect oribatid mite
communities in dierent microhabitats. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 30,
e01757 (2021).
476. Kirk, M. A., Maitland, B. M., Hickerson, B. T., Walters, A. W. & Rahel,
F. J. Climatic drivers and ecological impacts of a rapid range
expansion by non-native smallmouth bass. Biol. Invasions 24,
1311–1326 (2022).
477. Kupferberg, S. J. et al. Seasonal drought and its eects on frog
population dynamics and amphibian disease in intermittent
streams. Ecohydrology 15, e2395 (2022).
478. Liu, H., Wang, X., Chen, Z. & Lu, Y. Characterization of cold and
heat tolerance of Bactrocera tau (Walker). Insects 13, 329 (2022).
479. McDevitt-Galles, T., Moss, W. E. E., Calhoun, D. M. M., Briggs, C.
J. J. & Johnson, P. T. J. How extreme drought events, introduced
species, and disease interact to inluence threatened amphibian
populations. Freshw. Sci. 41, 680–694 (2022).
480. McIntosh, A. R. Flood disturbance mediates the strength of
stream trophic cascades caused by trout. Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett.
7, 218–226 (2022).
481. Navarrete-Carballo, J. et al. Mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae)
collected after tropical storm Cristobal in Merida, Yucatan,
South-east Mexico. Int. J. Trop. Insect Sci. 42, 2007–2012 (2022).
482. Navas, C. A., Agudelo-Cantero, G. A. & Loeschcke, V. Thermal
boldness: volunteer exploration of extreme temperatures in fruit
lies. J. Insect Physiol. 136, 104330 (2022).
483. Rilov, G., Klein, L., Iluz, D., Dubinsky, Z. & Guy-Haim, T. Last
snail standing? Superior thermal resilience of an alien tropical
intertidal gastropod over natives in an ocean-warming hotspot.
Biol. Invasions 24, 3703–3719 (2022).
484. Shiels, A. B. B., de Arellano, G. E. R. E. & Shiels, L. Invasive rodent
responses to experimental and natural hurricanes with implications
for global climate change. Ecosphere 13, e4307 (2022).
485. Tao, W. et al. Heat wave induces oxidative damage in the Chinese
pond turtle (Mauremys reevesii) from low latitudes. Front. Ecol.
Evol. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2022.1053260 (2022).
486. Zhang, M., Wang, L., Li, J., Wang, Q. & Luo, A. Hail-induced
mortality of Asian openbill (Anastomus oscitans) in southern
tropical China. Ecol. Evol. 12, e8983 (2022).
487. Roman, M. et al. Are clam–seagrass interactions aected
by heatwaves during emersion? Mar. Environ. Res. 186,
105906 (2023).
488. Shalders, T. C. et al. Impacts of seasonal temperatures, ocean
warming and marine heatwaves on the nutritional quality of
eastern school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi). Sci. Total Environ.
876, 162778 (2023).
489. Xu, X., Tong, Y., Deng, Y. & Zhao, L. Impacts of marine heatwaves
on byssus production in highly invasive fouling mussels.
Mar. Environ. Res. 184, 105871 (2023).
490. Xu, X. et al. Survival and physiological energetics of highly
invasive mussels exposed to heatwaves. Mar. Environ. Res. 187,
105948 (2023).
491. Pedder, H., Sarri, G., Keeney, E., Nunes, V. & Dias, S. Data
extraction for complex meta-analysis (DECiMAL) guide. Syst. Rev.
5, 212 (2016).
492. Greco, T. et al. How to impute study-speciic standard deviations
in meta-analyses of skewed continuous endpoints? World J.
Metaanal. 3, 215–224 (2015).
493. van Aert, R. C. M., Wicherts, J. M. & van Assen, M. A. L. M.
Publication bias examined in meta-analyses from psychology
and medicine: a meta-meta-analysis. PLoS ONE 14, e0215052
(2019).
494. Bonett, D. G. Meta-analytic interval estimation for standardized
and unstandardized mean dierences. Psychol. Methods 14,
225–238 (2009).
495. Viechtbauer, W. Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor
package. J. Stat. Softw. 36, 1–48 (2010).
496. Hoaglin, D. C. Misunderstandings about Q and ‘Cochran’s Q test’
in meta-analysis. Stat. Med 35, 485–495 (2016).
497. Lin, L. & Chu, H. Quantifying publication bias in meta-analysis.
Biometrics 74, 785–794 (2018).
498. Michael, B. L., Hedges, V., Higgins, J. P. T. & Rothstein, R. Subgroup
Analyses. Introduction to Meta‐Analysis, 149–186 (John Wiley &
Sons, Inc., 2009).
499. Reynolds, S. A. & Aldridge, D. C. Global impacts of invasive
species on the tipping points of shallow lakes. Glob. Change Biol.
27, 6129–6138 (2021).
500. Viechtbauer, W. & Cheung, M. W.-L. Outlier and
inluence diagnostics for meta-analysis. Res. Synth. Methods 1,
112–125 (2010).
501. Lin, L., Chu, H. & Hodges, J. S. Alternative measures of
between-study heterogeneity in meta-analysis: reducing the
impact of outlying studies. Biometrics 73, 156–166 (2017).
502. GBIF Occurrence Download (GBIF, last accessed date 21 May
2023); https://www.gbif.org/user/download?oset=0&limit=20
503. Chamberlain, S. scrubr: Clean Biological Occurrence Records (R
Package v.0.3.2) (The Comprehensive R Archive Network, 2020).
504. Aiello-Lammens, M. E., Boria, R. A., Radosavljevic, A., Vilela, B.
& Anderson, R. P. spThin: an R package for spatial thinning of
species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models.
Ecography 38, 541–545 (2015).
505. Steen, V. A., Tingley, M. W., Paton, P. W. C. & Elphick, C. S. Spatial
thinning and class balancing: key choices lead to variation in the
performance of species distribution models with citizen science
data. Methods Ecol. Evol. 12, 216–226 (2021).
506. Guisan, A., Thuiller, W. & Zimmermann, N. E. Habitat Suitability
and Distribution Models: With Applications in R (Cambridge Univ.
Press, 2017).
507. Phillips, S. J. & Dudík, M. Modeling of species distributions
with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation.
Ecography 31, 161–175 (2008).
508. Zurell, D. et al. A standard protocol for reporting species
distribution models. Ecography 43, 1261–1277 (2020).
509. Hao, T., Elith, J., Lahoz-Monfort, J. J. & Guillera-Arroita, G. Testing
whether ensemble modelling is advantageous for maximising
predictive performance of species distribution models.
Ecography 43, 549–558 (2020).
510. Li, Y., Liu, X., Li, X., Petitpierre, B. & Guisan, A. Residence time,
expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native
range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species.
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 23, 1094–1104 (2014).
511. Tingley, R., Vallinoto, M., Sequeira, F. & Kearney, M. R. Realized
niche shift during a global biological invasion. Proc. Natl Acad.
Sci. USA 111, 10233–10238 (2014).
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1
512. Warren, D. L., Glor, R. E. & Turelli, M. ENMTools: a toolbox for
comparative studies of environmental niche models. Ecography
33, 607–611 (2010).
513. Phillips, S. J. et al. Sample selection bias and presence-only
distribution models: implications for background and
pseudo-absence data. Ecol. Appl. 19, 181–197 (2009).
514. Liu, X. et al. Animal invaders threaten protected areas worldwide.
Nat. Commun. 11, 2892 (2020).
515. Assis, J. et al. Bio-ORACLE v2.0: extending marine data layers for
bioclimatic modelling. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 27, 277–284 (2018).
516. Basher, Z., Bowden, D. A. & Costello, M. J. Global Marine
Environment Datasets Version 2.0 (GMED, accessed December
2021); http://gmed.auckland.ac.nz
517. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Bruno, J. F. The impact of climate change
on the world’s marine ecosystems. Science 328, 1523–1528 (2010).
518. Moore, C. H., Harvey, E. S. & Van Niel, K. P. Spatial prediction of
demersal ish distributions: enhancing our understanding of species–
environment relationships. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 66, 2068–2075 (2009).
519. Reiss, H., Cunze, S., König, K., Neumann, H. & Kröncke, I. Species
distribution modelling of marine benthos: a North Sea case study.
Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 442, 71–86 (2011).
520. Lenoir, S., Beaugrand, G. & Lecuyer, É. Modelled spatial
distribution of marine ish and projected modiications in the
North Atlantic Ocean. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 115–129 (2011).
521. Langbehn, T. J. & Varpe, Ø. Sea-ice loss boosts visual search:
ish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans.
Glob. Change Biol. 23, 5318–5330 (2017).
522. Wang, L. et al. Modeling marine pelagic ish species
spatiotemporal distributions utilizing a maximum entropy
approach. Fish. Oceanogr. 27, 571–586 (2018).
523. Dormann, C. F. et al. Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with
it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography
36, 27–46 (2013).
524. Reid, B. N. et al. Disentangling the genetic eects of refugial
isolation and range expansion in a trans-continentally distributed
species. Heredity 122, 441–457 (2019).
525. Castellanos, A. A., Huntley, J. W., Voelker, G. & Lawing, A. M.
Environmental iltering improves ecological niche models across
multiple scales. Methods Ecol. Evol. 10, 481–492 (2019).
526. Strubbe, D., Beauchard, O. & Matthysen, E. Niche conservatism
among non-native vertebrates in Europe and North America.
Ecography 38, 321–329 (2015).
527. Hirzel, A. H., Le Lay, G., Helfer, V., Randin, C. & Guisan, A.
Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict
species presences. Ecol. Modell. 199, 142–152 (2006).
528. Swets, J. A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems.
Science 240, 1285–1293 (1988).
529. Allouche, O., Tsoar, A. & Kadmon, R. Assessing the accuracy of
species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill
statistic (TSS). J. Appl. Ecol. 43, 1223–1232 (2006).
530. Muscarella, R. et al. ENMeval: an R package for conducting
spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model
complexity for Maxent ecological niche models. Methods Ecol.
Evol. 5, 1198–1205 (2014).
531. Dunn, R. J. H. et al. Development of an updated global land
in situ-based data set of temperature and precipitation extremes:
HadEX3. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 125, e2019JD032263 (2020).
532. Argüeso, D., Di Luca, A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E. & Evans, J. P.
Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 7653–7660 (2016).
533. Russo, S. et al. Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present
climate and their projection in a warming world. J. Geophys. Res.
Atmos. 119(12), 500–12,512 (2014).
534. Tanaka, K. R. & Van Houtan, K. S. The recent normalization of
historical marine heat extremes. PLOS Clim. 1, e0000007 (2022).
535. Wang, Y., Kajtar, J. B., Alexander, L. V., Pilo, G. S. & Holbrook, N.
J. Understanding the changing nature of marine cold-spells.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2021GL097002 (2022).
536. Ward, P. J. et al. Aqueduct Floods Methodology Technical Note
(World Resources Institute, 2020).
537. McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J. & Kleist, J. R. The relationship of
drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proc. 8th Conf.
Appl. Climatol. 17, 179–183 (1993).
538. Hijmans, R. J. et al. Raster Package in R (R Package v.3.5-21) (The
Comprehensive R Archive Network, 2013).
539. Gearty, W. & Jones, L. A. rphylopic: an R package for fetching,
transforming, and visualising PhyloPic silhouettes. Methods Ecol.
Evol. 00, 1–9 (2023).
540. Gu, S., Qi, T., Rohr, J. R. & Liu, X. Meta-analysis reveals less
sensitivity of non-native animals than natives to extreme
weather worldwide. Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/
m9.igshare.23587695 (2023).
541. R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical
Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2022).
Acknowledgements
X.L. was supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientiic Expedition Program
(2022xjkk0800 and 2021xjkk0600), the National Science Foundation
of China (32171657), grants from the Youth Innovation Promotion
Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y201920) and grants
from the High Quality Economic and Social Development in Southern
Xinjiang (NFS2101). J.R.R. was supported by funding provided by the
US National Science Foundation (EEID-1518681, DEB-2017785) and the
US Department of Agriculture (NRI 2009-35102-0543).
Author contributions
X.L. conceived the project. X.L., S.G. and J.R.R. designed the study. X.L.
supervised the project. S.G., T.Q. and X.L. collected the data. S.G., T.Q.
and X.L. performed data analyses. S.G. and X.L. wrote the manuscript
draft and all authors contributed to manuscript revisions.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Supplementary information The online version
contains supplementary material available at
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1.
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to
Xuan Liu.
Peer review information Nature Ecology & Evolution thanks
Tim Doherty and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution
to the peer review of this work. Peer reviewer reports are available.
Reprints and permissions information is available at
www.nature.com/reprints.
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional ailiations.
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds
exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with
the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the
accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the
terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited
2023
A preview of this full-text is provided by Springer Nature.
Content available from Nature Ecology & Evolution
This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.
