Xiaoxia Ye

University of Exeter | UoE · The Business School

This paper explores whether the dispersion in forecasted crude oil prices from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters can provide insights for predicting crude oil return volatility. It is well-documented that higher disagreement among forecasters of asset price implies greater uncertainty and higher return volatility. Using s...

We extend the theory of Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) to study currency risk premia in a multi-country world with imperfect financial markets. Currency returns are connected to financiers’ limited commitment, captured by the complexity of their balance sheets in the trade imbalance network. Guided by the theory, we construct a Centrality Based Charact...

This paper investigates how the global trade network provides channels for term premia co-move and transmit across countries. We develop a network term structure model and demonstrate how term premia could decline with trade network centrality. We then empirically test our theoretical predictions using both trade data and bond yields from 37 countr...

We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity inflation risk premium (cIRP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based cIRP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the cross-section of commodity returns. The cIRP factor -...

Cryptocurrency returns are highly nonnormal, casting doubt on the standard performance metrics. We apply almost stochastic dominance, which does not require any assumption about the return distribution or degree of risk aversion. From 29 long–short cryptocurrency factor portfolios, we find eight that dominate our four benchmarks. Their returns cann...

We propose a dynamic model of research and development (R&D) venture, which predicts that the positive relation between the firm's R&D investment and the expected stock returns strengthens with illiquidity. Consistent with the model's prediction, empirical evidence based on cross-sectional regressions and double-sorted portfolios largely suggests a...

This paper explores the impact of product market competition on the positive relation between labor mobility (LM) and future returns. We develop a production-based model and formalize the intuition that low exposure to systematic risk in a concentrated industry limits LM’s amplifying effect on operating leverage. Therefore, the model predicts a str...

We examine the effect of voluntary climate risk disclosure on Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums. We develop a structural credit risk model, in which climate-related disclosures serve as an information source reducing uncertainty about climate risks. The model predicts a negative relation between the informativeness of climate risk disclosure and t...

There have been 128 defaults among U.S. CDS reference entities between 2001 and 2020. Within this sample, the five-year CDS spread is a significant predictor of corporate default in models with equity market covariates and firm attributes. This finding holds for forecast horizons up to 12 months, among financial and non-financial firms, within and...

The empirical distributions of cryptocurrency returns are highly non-normal, casting doubt on the performance metrics. So we apply almost stochastic dominance (ASD), which does not require any assumption about the return distribution, to examine cryptocurrency factor portfolios. Using portfolios based on factors that can be constructed from availab...

For 5,500 North American hedge funds following 11 different strategies, we analyse the stand-alone performance of these strategies using a stochastic discount factor approach. Employing the same data, we then consider the diversification benefits of each hedge fund strategy when combined with a portfolio of US equities and bonds. We compute the out...

This paper explores the impact of product market competition on the positive relation between labor mobility (LM) and future stock returns. We develop a production-based model, which predicts a stronger positive relation between LM and expected returns for firms in highly competitive industries. Consistent with the model's prediction, empirical res...

We study how macroeconomic uncertainty (EU) manifests into the cross-sectional variations of the credit default swap (CDS)-bond bases. We develop a structural model in which common EU induces informational friction affecting the pricing in the bond and CDS markets. Higher EU will lead to a larger cross-sectional divergence in the bases. Furthermore...

We propose a dynamic model of research and development (R&D) venture, which predicts that the positive relation between the firm's R&D investment and the expected stock returns strengthens with illiquidity. Consistent with the model's prediction, empirical evidence based on cross-sectional regressions and double-sorted portfolios suggests a stronge...

During the subprime crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has shown, once again, laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions. Ronn and Verma (1986) call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter. We derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank spec...

For various organizational reasons, large investors typically split their portfolio decision into two stages - asset allocation and stock selection. We hypothesise that mean-variance models are superior to equal weighting for asset allocation, while the reverse applies for stock selection, as estimation errors are less of a problem for mean-varianc...

For various organizational reasons, large investors typically split their portfolio decision into two stages - asset allocation and stock selection. We hypothesise that mean-variance models are superior to equal weighting for asset allocation, while the reverse applies for stock selection, as estimation errors are less of a problem for mean-varianc...

In this paper, we show that most existing Gaussian dynamic term structure models (GDTSMs) can be nested as special cases under a unified Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM)-based framework of GDTSM construction. Our study provides not only a systematic way to examine the commonality of many seemingly distinct GDTSMs, but also a novel and convenient approach...

For 5,500 North American hedge funds following 11 different strategies, we analyse the stand-alone performance of these strategies using a stochastic discount factor approach. Employing the same data, we then consider the diversification benefits of each hedge fund strategy when combined with a portfolio of US equities and bonds. We compute the out...

During the subprime crisis, the FDIC has shown, once again, laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions. Ronn and Verma (1986) call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter. We derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank-specific to infer the stock market view of t...

For various organizational reasons, large investors typically split their portfolio decision into two stages - asset allocation and stock selection. We hypothesise that mean-variance models are superior to equal weighting for asset allocation, while the reverse applies for stock selection, as estimation errors are less of a problem for mean-varianc...

Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore mispricing in the credit default swaps (CDS) spreads of North American companies and its economic content. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade out of sample market-neutral portfolios across the term structure of CDS contracts. Our empirical results show that t...

Using two market-view variables, namely the regulatory forbearance fraction imbedded in the bank capital and the market-valued of the bank equity-to-assets ratio, derived from market equity and total liabilities from listed commercial banks in the U.S. and three countries (Japan, China, India) and a region (Southeast Asia) in Asia, we show compelli...

Based on the classic Gaussian dynamic term structure model \( {\mathbb{A}}_{0} \left( 3 \right) \), we rotate the model to a special representation, the so called “Companion Form Realization”, in which the state variables comprise the short rate and its related expectations. This unique feature makes the representation very useful in analyzing the...

We develop an intensity-based model of municipal yields, making simultaneous use of the credit default swap premiums of the insurers and both insured and uninsured municipal bond transactions. We estimate the model individually for 61 municipal issuers by exploiting the dramatic decline in credit quality of the bond insurers from July 2007 to June...

Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore mispricing in the CDS spreads of North American companies and its economic content. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade out of sample market-neutral portfolios across the term structure of CDS contracts. Our empirical results show that the trading strategy exh...

In this paper, using China's risk-free and corporate zero yields together with aggregate credit risk measures and various control variables from 2006 to 2013, we document a puzzle of counter-credit-risk corporate yield spreads. We interpret this puzzle as a symptom of the immaturity of China's credit bond market, which reveals a distorted pricing m...

At the height of the 2007-2009 subprime crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has shown, once again, latitude and laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions. Rather than automatically close insolvent systemically important financial institutions (SIFI), the FDIC revived them by infusing funds into them. Ronn and Verma...

This article develops a novel approach for measuring market expectations and term premia in the term structure of interest rates. Key components of this approach are generic impact measures of state variables in a Gaussian dynamic term structure model. These measures are inherent in a particular state variable regardless of how other state variable...

Risks exist in all aspects of our lives. Using data in both Scopus and ISI Web of Science, this review paper identifies pioneer work and pioneer scholars in enterprise risk management (ERM). Being ranked the first based on the review data, Desheng Wu has been active in this area by serving as a good academic network manager on the global research n...

We develop an intensity-based model of municipal yields, making simultaneous use of the CDS premiums of the insurers and both insured and uninsured municipal bond transactions. We estimate the model individually for 61 municipal issuers by exploiting the dramatic decline in credit quality of the bond insurers from July 2007 to June 2008, and decomp...

In this paper, using China’s risk free and corporate zero yields with aggregate credit risk measures and macroeconomic variables from 2006 to 2013, we document a puzzle of counter-credit-risk corporate yield spreads. We interpret this puzzle as a symptom of the immaturity of China’s credit bond market, which reveals a distorted pricing mechanism la...

During the subprime crisis, the FDIC has shown, once again, laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions. Ronn and Verma (1986) call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter. We derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank-specific to infer the stock market view of t...

Based on the classic Gaussian dynamic term structure model A_0(3), I rotate the model to a special representation, the so called "Companion Form Realization", in which the state variables comprise the short rate and its related expectations. This unique feature makes the representation very useful in analyzing the response of the yield curve to the...