Wilson Sy

Investment Analytics

Macro-data during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom (UK) are shown to have significant data anomalies and inconsistencies with existing explanations. This paper shows that the UK spike in deaths, wrongly attributed to COVID-19 in April 2020, was not due to SARS-CoV-2 virus, which was largely absent, but was due to the widespread use of Mi...

Macro-data during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom (UK) are shown to have significant data anomalies and inconsistencies with existing explanations. This paper shows that the UK spike in deaths, wrongly attributed to COVID-19 in April 2020, was not due to SARS-CoV-2 virus, which was largely absent, but was due to the widespread use of Mi...

Background: Conflicting findings in correlation studies between COVID-19 injections and excess deaths have been published. Negative correlations with 2021 data appear to justify the official claim that COVID-19 injections reduce illness and death and therefore should be prioritized for vulnerable elderly (over-75s) Australians. This claim needs to...

Australian official mortality data show no clear evidence of significant excess deaths in 2020, implying from an older WHO definition that there was no COVID-19 pandemic. A seasonality analysis suggests that COVID-19 deaths in 2020 were likely misclassifications of influenza and pneumonia deaths. Australian excess mortality became significant only...

Despite widespread anecdotal and research evidence of severe disease and death closely associated with COVID-19 injections, their link to COVID mortality has been dismissed as rare and coincidental, because comprehensive statistical evidence has not been apparent in official mortality data. This paper solves this puzzle by identifying a systemic da...

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the "gold standard" in clinical medicine. Perhaps for this reason, health authorities all over the world have assumed the universal validity of RCTs and have not recognized that RCT results may not be valid everywhere or for the epidemiology of infectious diseases. Using the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine...

The revelations from the Hayne Royal Commission (HRC, 2019), limited though they were by the terms of reference, have come as a shock to most people, including Australian politicians, officials, academics and the media. Their expressed shock indicates a high degree of ignorance about the Australian financial system. For decades, the public was led...

It is shown empirically that, for the US economy, fiscal stimulus has increased total consumption, but has depressed economic growth. Therefore, decades of fiscal stimulus has been a continual depressant on US economic growth and moved the economy closer to the Keynesian singularity defined as the situation where the Keynesian multiplier approaches...

Economics needs a set of agreed facts to create a scientific economic paradigm, without which economics remains trapped in the rationalist-scholastic tradition with many rival schools of conflicting theories. Physics and other natural sciences are shown in this paper to be based on an empiricism revived in the European Renaissance, leading to the s...

This paper is a scientific revolution in motion. Pragmatic empirical work is combined with macroeconomic theory to provide a scientific analysis of the influence of Keynesian theories on the performance the US economy since the Second World War. Despite recent decades of apparent revival of neoclassical economics, we show empirically that the US ec...

The global financial crisis has provided clear evidence that the global financial system, including that of Australia, is founded on flawed economic theories. There is no scientific justification for sophisticated risk management, complex institutional structures or intrusive regulation. Australian financial system reforms should simplify corporate...

Key economic concepts of saving and investment are defined and discussed in this paper. It is shown that the equation “saving=investment” is a fundamental fallacy of macroeconomics due to a confusion between real and financial variables, and also between stock and flow variables. Economic growth is shown to be driven by investment, not by consumpti...

This paper proposes that the global financial and economic crisis has a single cause underlying all other causes. The single cause is attributed to the economic paradigm which drives individual behaviour, business, government and education. We define the economic paradigm and explain its power to drive endogenous economic processes, ultimately lead...

Using official data and new econometric models based on how the industry actually works, we show the benefits of scale for members are limited, and confined to the non-profit sector which is structured to incur relatively low fixed costs compared with much higher variable costs. In Australian institutional superannuation, most efficiency gains, suc...

The Australian superannuation system was founded on the assumption that market competition will deliver economic efficiency in a largely private defined contribution system. Since the Wallis Report (1997) explicitly articulated this view, total assets in the system have grown substantially through contributions, but net earnings from investments we...

Compared with large institutional pension funds, there is relatively little published research on small funds, which are defined in the Australian superannuation legislation as pension funds with less than five members. Small funds account for more than 20% of total pension assets and they are one of the fastest growing sectors and therefore play a...

Recent advances in investment performance measurement and cost analysis are applied to suggest ways to improve Australian pension management. Using empirical data collected by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority in 2006, we show that investment performance of different types of Australian pension firms is significantly correlated with th...

Investment performance studies of pension or mutual funds have overall been too statistically inconclusive to create definitive rankings to help investors make fund selection decisions. This paper presents an alternative approach based on comparing the pension or mutual fund firms themselves which are highly diversified composite portfolios aggrega...

The views and analysis expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) or other staff. The data samples and methods used in this paper are selected for the specific research purposes of this paper and may differ from those used in other APRA publications.The a...

The Australian pension system is evolving, driven by changing regulation, financial innovation and changing political climates. This article offers a snapshot of its current trustee policies and practices and shows that industry funds and retail funds have different historical origins, leading to different governance practices. One example is the t...

This paper proposes an approach to design a national default option to maximize retirement savings in defined contribution superannuation, using a proportionate shareholding approach which minimizes total cost of investing for all investors. The paper provides a new rationale for passive investing based on the hypothesis of market inefficiency. It...

In this paper we describe the data collected from a questionnaire on superannuation fund governance, sent out in August 2006 to nearly 200 trustees of the largest superannuation funds with more than $200 million in total assets. We provide an executive summary, an industry overview, an analysis of the main governance behavioural differences between...

Abstract: Credit risk models are shown to play a key part in the global credit crisis. We discuss how the credit market has exposed the shortcomings of the credit risk models and we identify their main shortcomings. To overcome the shortcomings, a new causal framework is proposed to build deductive credit default models which have predictive capabi...

Most existing credit default theories do not link causes directly to the effect of default and are unable to evaluate credit risk in a rapidly changing market environment, as experienced in the recent mortgage and credit market crisis. Causal theories of credit default are needed to understand lending risk systematically and ultimately to measure a...

Compared with large institutional superannuation funds, there is relatively little published research on small funds, which are defined in the Australian superannuation legislation as funds with less than five members. Small funds account for more than 20% of total pension assets and they are one of the fastest growing sectors and therefore play a...

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) risk measure has been widely used in finance and insurance for capital and risk management. However, in recent years it has fallen somewhat out of favour due to a seminal paper by Artzner et al. (1999) who showed that VaR does not in general have all the four coherence properties which are desirable for a risk measure. In pa...

A differential equation for small amplitude wave propagation in a hot nonuniform magnetized plasma is derived from the Vlasov equation by a perturbation expansion in the smallness of the Larmor radius compared to characteristic scale-lengths of the plasma. This equation is developed primarily to study the effects of strong plasma nonuniformities on...

The forced radial magneto-acoustic oscillations in a partially-ionized, low- beta plasma column with non-uniform densities, temperature and axial current are investigated theoretically. By using a method of successive approximations to include resistive and viscous dissipations, the description of these oscillations has been reduced to the solution...

The influence of resistivity on the propagation of axisymmetric shear Alfven waves excited by a localized antenna in a cylindrical nonuniform plasma is discussed. It is shown that the dominant effect of a small resistivity on localized disturbances is the diffusion of the nonuniform wave fields. The result is compared to a recent laboratory experim...

By means coordinate transformations on different forms of the Biot-Savasrt law, general expressions are derived for both the magnetic vector potential and the magnetic field in two systems of toroidal coordinates. For the cases of interest, it is shown that the integrations can be performed exactly in proper toroidal coordinates, whereas approximat...

Analytic expressions for the magnetic field of a toroidal stellarator produced by a set of finite-size helical conductors wound on a torus have been obtained by a direct application of the Biot-Savart law. The effects of toroidal curvature have been included as toroidal perturbations which break the helical symmetry of a corresponding straight syst...

An iterative technique for solving the ideal MHD equilibrium equations for a helically symmetric plasma with a free boundary is described. The method involves an application of Green's theorem and has been formulated for the geometry of a heliac. It is used to determine a stability diagram for the SHEILA heliac as a function of the plasma pressure...

A cold plasma model which takes into account finite ion cyclotron frequency effects and multiple ion species has been developed for wave propagation in arbitrary magnetic field geometries. This model has been used to derive an elegant system of normal mode equations for a 10w-fJ diffuse linear pinch. From a soluble model, general features of the sp...

Magnetic coordinates for hydromagnetic equilibria are defined which treat toroidal and ''straight'' helical plasmas equivalently and yet exploit the existence of a continuous symmetry to derive relations between various geometrical and physical qualities. This allows the number of equilibrium quantities which must be known to be reduced to a minima...

The influence of shear plasma flow along the magnetic field on the resistive tearing instability has been investigated in plane geometry. It is shown that such flows, even at significantly sub-Alfvenic speeds, have a destabilizing effect. Moreover, in nonsymmetric cases, the well-known threshold for tearing mode instability ..delta../sup prime//sub...

The conditions for excitation of a standing magnetosonic wave structure in the region between the ion-ion hybrid cut-off layer and an antenna situated near the wall on the outside of a toroidal plasma have been derived. It is shown that low-order radial eigenmodes may be excited under usual conditions, but the order of the mode increases as the pla...

A combination of analytical and numerical approaches is adopted to consider the problem of eigenmode excitation in a nonuniform cylindrical plasma. The fundamentally new phenomenon to be expected from the addition of another ion species to an ideal plasma is described and the optimal ionic mixtures which facilitate the observation of the new effect...

A multiple-hit model used in the analysis of cell survival data is extended to include continuous parametric ranges of the gamma distribution. The justification of the extension involved is given a statistical interpretation. Furthermore, the model is placed in the context of a general stochastic theory of population and the relevant transition pro...

A linearized stress tensor for wave propagation in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies in a warm nonuniform plasma is derived. Some consequences of wave propagation at ion cyclotron resonances are noted.

Parametric decay of magneto-acoustic oscillations in a cylindrical plasma column is considered, including the Hall effect and the effects of finite resistivity. Growth rates for axisymmetric modes in decay instabilities are derived and applied to the problems of parametric excitation of Alfvén waves and supplementary heating of plasmas. It is shown...

Toroidal effects on forced axisymmetric magneto-acoustic oscillations in a conventional Tokamak plasma are investigated to first order in the inverse aspect ratio, using dissipative magnetohydrodynamic theory. It is shown that toroidal effects give rise to poloidally asymmetric components but magneto-acoustic resonance is still obtained and it is d...

A class of simple analytic models for equilibria neighbouring Taylor's force-free states has been examined. It is shown that some members of this class are high-beta equilibria which satisfy Suydam's (1958) criterion and Robinson's (1971) condition for magnetohydrodynamic stability.

A method of singular perturbations is used to analyze the spectrum of axisymmetric torsional Alfven waves which propagate in a nonuniform resistive cylindrical plasma waveguide. A typical feature of the problem treated is that axial propagation of the waves is considered explicitly by solving a partial differential equation in two spatial dimension...

The guided modes of Woods' magnetohydrodynamic waveguide for a uniform, cylindrical plasma are shown to satisfy a homogeneous wave equation whose differential operator is the product of eight Helmholtz operators. The propagation constants of the Helmholtz operators are the characteristic roots of an 8 × 8 matrix which is derived and written down ex...

A theory is developed to account for the observed properties of type I storm bursts in terms of plasma radiation — that is, electromagnetic radiation at the electron plasma frequency resulting from the non-linear scattering of electron plasma waves on plasma ions. Now the average brightness temperature of a type I source is greater than 109 K, or e...

Type I radio bursts, as distinct from the continuum component frequently associated with them in a solar storm, are short-lived (0.1-2 s), narrow-band (2-10 MHz) bursts with frequency drift rates from 0 to 20 MHz s −1 . They come from coronal regions close to the corresponding plasma levels, i.e. the frequency of radiation ω is close to the local p...

A general theory of scattering of waves in a magnetoactive plasma by particles of arbitrary energy is presented. The cross-section for the scattering of magnetoionic waves by thermal particles is derived and discussed. Conditions under which the effect of the spiralling motion of the scattering electron can be neglected in treating inverse Compton...

Plasma emission (i.e. emission at about the plasma frequency and twice this frequency) is treated taking into account the effects of the magnetic field on the electron plasma waves, on the conversion processes, and on the escaping radiation. The expected degrees of polarization of the fundamental and second harmonic are calculated in the weak field...

In this paper possible causes of line splitting in emission near the local plasma frequency are considered in connection with drift pair solar radio bursts. The basic model envisaged for the bursts involves a bunch of electrons streaming through the solar corona at several times the thermal velocity of electrons. The emission process assumed is the...