Werner Hölzl

Austrian Institute of Economic Research | WIFO

We study how firms’ individual credit market experience influences their beliefs about the bank lending policy, using the Austrian Business Survey between 2011 and 2016. Firms which have recently experienced a loan rejection are more likely to believe that the lending policy is restrictive. We see similar effects for firms who were granted loans, b...

Die Ergebnisse der WIFO-Investitionsbefragung lassen für 2023 eine neuerliche Kürzung der Investitionspläne erwarten. Das Investitionswachstum dürfte sich dabei in der Sachgütererzeugung stärker abschwächen als im Dienstleistungssektor. Auf Branchenebene zeigt sich ein gemischtes Bild. Innerhalb der Sachgütererzeugung kürzen vor allem die Herstelle...

Die Ergebnisse der WIFO-Investitionsbefragung zeigen für 2022 eine gedämpfte Investitionsnachfrage. Nach Branchen ist das Bild gemischt. Während einige Sektoren wie etwa das Gastgewerbe von einem starken Einbruch ihrer Investitionstätigkeit im Jahr 2022 berichten, melden Unternehmen anderer Branchen, etwa Erbringer von Finanz- und Versicherungsdien...

Die Ergebnisse der WIFO-Investitionsbefragung lassen für 2022 eine gedämpfte Ausweitung der Investitionen erwarten. Das Investitionswachstum dürfte dabei in der Sachgütererzeugung stärker zurückgehen als im Dienstleistungssektor. Auf Branchenebene zeigt sich ein gemischtes Bild. Innerhalb der Sachgütererzeugung planen lediglich die Hersteller nicht...

Im November 2021 wurden im Rahmen des WIFO-Konjunkturtests erstmals rund 1.800 in Österreich tätige Unternehmen zu ihren Investitionsplänen befragt. Das Investitionswachstum im Jahr 2021 wurde breit von allen Branchen getragen. Die Investitionen dürften 2022 ausgeweitet werden, vor allem in Verkehr und Lagerei, Information und Kommunikation, in den...

This paper explores the relationship between strategic functional domains and firm growth using the European Community Innovation Survey 2012. We provide a mapping of the joint effect of strategies on firm growth in frontier and catching-up economies. Methodologically, we explain employment growth in quantile regressions by estimating conditional c...

Nach dem Einbruch infolge der COVID-19-Pandemie dürfte sich die heimische Investitionstätigkeit 2021 kräftig erholen. Eine Hochschätzung anhand der Angaben der im WIFO-Investitionstest erfassten Unternehmen ergibt für 2021 in der Sachgütererzeugung insgesamt einen Anstieg der Investitionen um 22,0% gegenüber dem Vorjahr (real). Insbesondere große U...

We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty mea...

In der Zeit nach COVID 19 wird sich der wirtschaftspolitische Fokus vom Strukturerhalt zum Strukturwandel verlagern. Die Studie diskutiert wirtschaftspolitische Hebel zur Forcierung von In-vestitionen in die „Digitalisierung" und die „Dekarbonisierung" bzw. „Carbon Management“ in Ös-terreich. Basierend auf der Literatur zur Technologiediffusion wer...

Die ökonomische Unsicherheit nahm infolge der COVID-19-Pandemie drastisch zu. Eine im Sommer 2020 durchgeführte Befragung österreichischer Industrieunternehmen zeichnet ein detailliertes Bild der Ursachen und Wirkungen dieser Entwicklung. Als zentrale Ursache wurden neben möglichen Auswirkungen auf die Nachfrage Lieferengpässe genannt. Die Zunahme...

Infolge der COVID-19-Krise ging der österreichische Warenaußenhandel 2020 deutlich zurück. Auf den kräftigen Einbruch während der ersten COVID-19-Welle im Frühjahr folgte in den Sommermonaten ein Rebound. Die neuerliche Verschärfung der behördlichen Maßnahmen im Herbst dämpfte die Erholung nur leicht. Diesem unterjährigen Verlauf entsprach auch die...

Die Hochschätzung der Meldungen der Sachgütererzeuger im WIFO-Investitionstest ergibt für 2021 insgesamt eine Steigerung der realen Investitionen um +4,8% gegenüber 2020, als die Investitionen aufgrund der COVID-19-Krise um 15,9% einbrachen. Großunternehmen kürzten ihre Investitionen deutlicher als kleine und mittelgroße Betriebe, die auch für 2021...

Die COVID-19-Krise hat tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf die heimische Investitionstätigkeit. Die Hochschätzung anhand der Angaben der im WIFO-Investitionstest erfassten Unternehmen ergibt für 2020 in der Sachgütererzeugung insgesamt um 19,5% geringere reale Investitionen als 2019. Insbesondere kleine und mittelgroße Betriebe planen eine Einschränkung...

We propose a mechanism-"profit-contingent repayable grants"-to support SMEs in the COVID 19 crisis. We argue that the mechanism can be implemented quickly, in a targeted way and with low administrative costs. The mechanism is characterised by a) profit-contingent repayment, b) limited repayment period (forgiveness), c) interest at market rates and...

Key Messages ■ A majority of firms expect a negative impact of the corona crisis on annual turnover ■ The sub-sectors hardest hit are: manufacturing of consumer durables and investment goods; tourism and gastronomy services; retailers selling neither food nor beverages ■ Businesses profiting from the crisis offer 'information service activities' (e...

Im WIFO-Konjunkturtest vom April wurden Sonderfragen zur Corona-Pandemie gestellt. Die Befragungsergebnisse zeigen, dass die Corona-Krise negative Auswirkungen auf die Geschäftstätigkeit der befragten Unternehmen hat. Die Mehrzahl hat bereits mit Maßnahmen auf die Corona-Krise reagiert. Für das heurige Jahr werden deutliche Jahresumsatzrückgänge er...

This paper explores the structural determinants of high-growth firm shares in Austrian regions. The regional level of analysis allows to uncover regularities which are not detectable in firm-level studies. We find that lower mobility barriers, firm exits and technological opportunities, measured by digitalisation intensities, and, to a lesser exten...

Business tendency surveys are widely used for monitoring economic activity. They provide timely feedback on the current business conditions and outlook. We identify the unobserved macroeconomic factors behind the distribution of quarterly responses by Austrian firms on the questions concerning the current business climate and production. The aggreg...

The report provides an overview and analysis of the state of digitalisation in Austria. The findings show that the digitalisation performance of the Austrian economy is mixed. The overall digitalisation performance of Austria is marked by good performance in the manufacturing industries and weaknesses in the service sector compared to the innovatio...

Die Außenfinanzierung österreichischer nichtfinanzieller Unternehmen erfolgt vorwiegend über Eigenkapital und Kredite. Diese Studie erweitert die volkswirtschaftliche Finanzierungsrechnung um eine Schätzung des Umfanges geförderter bzw. alternativer Finanzierungsformen und ermöglicht damit erstmals eine bessere Einschätzung ihrer Bedeutung für die...

We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct measure of economic uncertainty has a decent contempor...

We show that firms' credit market experience determines their perception of aggregate bank lending policy using panel data from the Austrian Business Survey between 2011 and 2016. Loan rejections have a strongly negative and persistent effect on perceptions. Interestingly, firms that receive a loan at worse than anticipated conditions show a simila...

The annual report to parliament about the state of research, technology and innovation and realted policies in Austria

The Austrian Report on Research and Technology is an annual report to the parliament, describing the performance of Austria in research and innovation, recent developments in Austrian STI policy and evaluations of policy initiatives

Seit Juni 2018 unterstützt ein dynamisches Faktormodell die WIFO-Prognose der Wertschöpfung der Sachgüterproduktion (Herstellung von Waren) und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen. Wie eine Überprüfung seiner Prognoseeigenschaften zeigt, hat es einen hohen Vorlauf und kann daher einen wichtigen Input zur Expertenprognose leisten.

This paper addresses three simple questions: how should the contribution of HGFs to job creation be measured? how much does this contribution vary across countries? to what extent does the crosscountry variation depend on variation in the proportion of HGFs in the business population? The first is a methodological question which we answer using a m...

This report offers an extensive analysis of the effects of the EU Single Market. It sheds light on four interrelated aspects: It first reveals the asymmetric economic performance across member countries, which also mirrors structural differences. These differences in economic outcomes are next confronted with measures of the Single Market, economic...

The Austrian Research and Technology Report 2016 (english version) is a comprehensive source and overview of the state of the Austrian Research and Innovation system.

In Europa gibt es – im Gegensatz zu den USA – mit den Alternative Investment Markets eigene Märkte für kleine börsennotierte Unternehmen ("Small-Caps"). Die Studie analysiert die Performance dieser Märkte und beschreibt die Organisation von drei ausgewählten Märkten im Detail. Aus den Ergebnissen werden wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen abge...

Der österreichische Forschungs- und Technologiebericht ist ein jährlicher Bericht der Bundesregierung an den österreichischen Nationalrat (lagebericht gem. ³8 (1) FOG über die aus Bundesmitteln geförderte Forschung, Technologie und Innovation in Österreich

This study analyses the main transmission mechanisms relevant for the absorption and propagation of asymmetries within the EU and EMU, putting a specific focus on Europe's real economy. In particular, the report aims to assess how the economic shock that triggered the financial and economic crisis has been transmitted and at least partially absorbe...

This paper studies the business cycle sensitivity of industries using different industry groupings. The results show that technologically intense industries are heavily affected by business cycles. While the overall importance of business cycles for long-run growth seems to be rather limited, we observe for industries with high technology intensity...

The contribution of different-sized businesses to job creation continues to attract policymak-ers' attention; however, it has recently been recognised that conclusions about size were confounded with the effect of age. We probe the role of size, controlling for age, by comparing the cohorts of firms born in 1998 over their first decade of life, usi...

This paper studies the influence of sunk costs on industry evolution using the stylized pure selection model developed by Metcalfe. It is shown that sunk costs influence industry dynamics by reducing the speed of the replicator dynamics of competitive selection. Based on the theoretical model, we argue that sunk costs should lead to a reduction of...

Der WIFO-Konjunkturtest ist ein wichtiges System von Frühindikatoren für die österreichische Konjunktur. Mit einem Markov-Regime-Switching-Modell kann der Konjunkturverlauf anhand dieser Indikatoren frühzeitig in Auf- und Abschwungregime klassifiziert werden. Die Regimewahrscheinlichkeiten können in Form einer Konjunkturampel dargestellt werden und...

What are the effects of the quality of public administration (PA) on firm growth? There are currently a number of EU policy initiatives for which answers to this guiding question are relevant. Examples of such initiatives include the Europe 2020 strategy which stresses the importance of an efficient, effective and transparent public administration;...

The contribution of different-sized businesses to job creation continues to attract policymakers’ attention, however, it has recently been recognized that conclusions about size were confounded with the effect of age. We probe the role of size, controlling for age, by comparing the cohorts of firms born in 1998 over their first decade of life, usin...

High-growth firms (HGFs) have attracted considerable attention recently, as academics and policymakers have increasingly recognized the highly skewed nature of many metrics of firm performance. A small number of HGFs drives a disproportionately large amount of job creation, while the average firm has a limited impact on the economy. This article ex...

High-growth firms (HGFs) have attracted considerable attention recently, as academics and policymakers have increasingly recognized the highly skewed nature of many metrics of firm performance. A small number of HGFs drives a disproportionately large amount of job creation, while the average firm has a limited impact on the economy. This article ex...

High growth firms and reducing innovation barriers figure high in the European innovation policy debate. Do high growth firms face specific innovation barriers which are relevant for innovation policy? In this paper we study the robustness of the perception of innovation barriers when alternative definitions of high growth firms are used. Using dat...

This article studies the survival, persistence, and growth of fast-growing firms after their fast-growth period, using an extensive data set of Austrian firms. We use two definitions to identify fast-growing firms. High-growth firms (HGF) are firms with the highest growth rates, while high-Birch firms (HBF) are the firms that contribute most to job...

Barriers to innovation have mainly been studied in a single country context. This paper studies differences in the perception of innovation barriers between innovative and non-innovative firms for 18 EU countries. The countries are grouped by their distance to the technological frontier using Community Innovation Surveys for the years 2002–2004 and...

The economic crisis has affected the unit labour cost position of the Austrian manufacturing sector. Per-capita labour productivity declined by 10.1 percent in Austria, while EU trading partners saw a drop in productivity of 11.1 percent. At the same time, labour costs rose by 2.0 percent in Austria, compared to an average decline of 1.0 percent am...

In 2011, the cash flow to sales ratio should have increased in the Austrian manufacturing sector. The rise reflects the continued recovery after the severe crisis in 2008 and 2009, which was also marked by a drop in the cash flow to revenue margin. For 2011, econometric estimates based on a panel of NACE 2-digit industry data indicate a cash flow t...

Diese Arbeit untersucht vier alternative Methoden, um Beschäftigungsveränderungen den einzelnen Beschäftigungsgrößenklassen zuzuordnen. Für Jahresdaten sollte demnach als Referenzgröße die durchschnittliche Unternehmensgröße bzw. ein dynamisches Allokationsverfahren verwendet werden. Aufgrund des Regression Bias ergibt sich bei Verwendung von Vorja...

Recent research has led to the empirical regularity that firm growth rate distributions are heavy tailed. This finding implies that a few firms experience spectacular growth rates and decline, but that most firms have marginal growth rates. The literature on high growth firms shows that high growth firms are the central drivers of job creation in t...

Austria's unit labour cost position improved thanks to the recovering economy and the related increase in productivity. Per-capita labour costs increased only slightly in manufacturing, while labour productivity per employee saw a greater rise. In general, unit labour costs in Austrian manufacturing developed slightly less favourably than among the...

The paper studies the persistence of the high-growth phenomenon in Austria using social security data for the years 1985 to 2007. The Eurostat-OECD definition is used to identify high-growth firms and a modified Birch Index to identify high-impact firms. Bringing the definitions to the data confirms that the two definitions lead to the selection of...

Final version published as "Distance to the Frontier and the Perception of Innovation Barriers across European Countries" in Research Policy, 2014, (4), S.707-725, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.10.001 This paper studies the differences in perception of innovation barriers of innovative and non-innovative firms for 18 EU countries using C...

This paper introduces the special issue on the economics of entrepreneurship policy. It is argued that important differences in the perspective on and approach to entrepreneurship policy that are found in the literature are rooted in different conceptions. The Schumpeterian conception of entrepreneurship that provides a focus on innovation and firm...

This article studies the factors driving structural dynamics across Austrian manufacturing industries. Using a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR) framework we identify sectoral labour productivity and demand shocks that are orthogonal to aggregate shocks. We analyse the sectoral impulse-response patterns and find that the effect of indus...

This note studies the dierences in the R&D and innovation behaviour of high-growth rms for 16 EU countries. The results conrm that R&D and innovation are important characteristics for high-growth rms in countries close to the technological frontier, but not for high-growth rms in countries further away from the technological frontier.

This paper studies the differences in the R&D and innovation behaviour of high-growth firms for 16 EU countries. The results confirm that R&D and innovation are important characteristics for high-growth firms in countries close to the technological frontier, but not for high-growth firms in countries further away from the technological frontier.

High growth enterprises are important carriers of economic dynamics. They contribute to job creation and to the diffusion of new technology. This paper is the first to show the importance of high growth firms for the Austrian economy, using a comprehensive database derived from social insurance accounts. While the definition of an enterprise limits...

The earning power of the Austrian manufacturing sector was considerably affected by the global economic crisis. According to the WIFO estimates using a dynamic panel econometric model the cash flow-to-sales ratio has declined by more than a third (from 11.2 percent in 2008 to 7.5 percent in 2009). The equity ratio in 2008 was, at 36.4 percent, with...

The economic crisis has had a negative effect on the state of the public budgets. Consolidation measures and the slow recovery of the economy will continue to influence the budget until 2014. However, an increase in public spending on innovation and education is possible in principle, despite budget consolidation. A "frontrunner strategy" can be im...

The global financial crisis, which had its origins in the bursting of the real estate bubble in the USA, has affected the confidence in the functionality of the modern banking and financial system. Such a situation poses the threat of a reduction of credit supply, which can lead to an outright credit crunch. As a result of insufficient access to ca...

In 2009 the cash flow to sales ratio in the Austrian manufacturing sector is expected to have declined significantly. Already 2008 was marked by a modest drop to 11.2 percent. For 2009 econometric estimates based on a panel of NACE 2-digit industry data indicate a cash flow to sales ratio of approximately 7.5 per-cent, equivalent to a reduction by...

Consolidation measures will shape budgetary development until 2014. However, despite consolidation efforts reforming education and training policies as well as innovation policies is still possible and necessary. This is because these form the basis for sustainable growth. Increases in public funds in order to implement a front runner strategy can...

This paper presents a study of the bias of technical change for 20 industries of the Austrian manufacturing sector for the period 1978 to 1994 using empirical methods derived from both classical and neoclassical economics. Overall, the results suggest that the technical bias in Austrian manufacturing did not follow a Marxian pattern. Estimates base...

This article studies the adoption of typewriters in the United States, France, and Germany in the period between 1870 and 1930. The aim of the article is to show how specific problem-solving heuristics and routines, which have been developed to solve technical and social problems on the shop floor, have also shaped the organization of work and comp...

This paper studies the R&D behaviour of fast growing SMEs using CIS III data for 16 countries. We group the countries into three groups that roughly have the same position in technological development. The first finding is that R&D is more important to high growth SMEs in countries that are closer to the technological frontier. The second finding i...

We study the evolution and cyclical dependency of the cross sectional distribution of firm level job creation rates from 1975 to 2004 for the Austrian private sector. We find that the share of firms that o not adjust has declined over time, but that the share of entries, exits, growing and declining firms increased. The share of firms adjusting is...

In 2008, Austria ranked ninth in the international labour cost hierarchy. Labour was most expensive in Norway, Belgium, Switzerland and Sweden. As the Austrian economy was less affected by the global economic crisis than the economies of its trading partners, Austria's labour productivity and international unit labour cost position improved in 2008...

The global financial crisis, which had its origin in the bursting of the real estate bubble in the USA, affected the confidence in the functionality of the modern financial system. Such a situation bears the risk that the restriction of credit supply turns into an outright credit crunch. The latter is defined as a significant contraction of the cre...

In 2008 a working hour cost Austrian manufacturers € 31.40, 12.0 percent more than the average of the other EU-15 countries. This sum is made up of a wage share of € 16.70 plus € 14.70 in non-wage labour costs. At 88 percent, the incidental costs were slightly lower than in the previous year.

This paper studies the serial autocorrelation of annual growth rates in employment for selected Austrian service industries over a 30-year period using quantile regression techniques. The autocorrelation of growth rates provides important information on firms growth processes. We find that the growth patterns of micro firms are strikingly different...

EU enlargement has increased the economic diversity of the European Union substantially, also with respect to capacities in the fields of science, technology and innovation (STI). The increasing disparities have (re)kindled (old) debates on the role and scope of EU policy intervention. The conflicts of interest revolve mainly around the size of the...

The ’Gazelles’ Innovation Panel met five times during the Europe INNOVA initiative. The mandate of the panel was to discuss the scope, content, positioning and implementation of dedicated policies and support initiatives directed at high- growth entrepreneurial firms, or ’gazelles’. This report presents a summary of the panel’s deliberations, as we...

The ’Gazelles’ Innovation Panel met five times during the Europe INNOVA initiative. The mandate of the panel was to discuss the scope, content, positioning and implementation of dedicated policies and support initiatives directed at high- growth entrepreneurial firms, or ’gazelles’. This report presents a summary of the panel’s deliberations, as we...

Based on Pasinetti's model of structural dynamics we develop an empirical identification strategy for aggregate and sectoral labor productivity and demand shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model with long-run restrictions. Impulse response analysis shows that we can distinguish four patterns of the effects of changes in demand and produc...

Between 1990 and 2004, the average annual growth of total real value added amounted to about 2.38 percent, with +1.33 percentage points contributed by capital output growth, +0.46 percentage point by labour output growth, and +0.85 percentage point by multi-factor productivity growth (as well as minor re-allocation effects). Thus, the contribution...

This study based on three different datasets shows that entry and exit dynamics have been increasing over the last decades. Start-ups are of much greater importance for the Austrian economy than they were 20 years ago. Although a final international comparison of start-up figures is not possible for the time being due to an inadequacy of data, the...

EU enlargement has increased the diversity of the European Union in a substantial way, in particular with respect to its capacities in the fields of science, technology and innovation (STI). The shares of both gross and business sector expenditures on R&D in GDP are increasingly diverging following EU enlargement, pointing at quite different levels...

The last decade has been characterised by a tightening of IPR regulations worldwide. The premise underlying this trend is that the stringent regulation of IPRs enhances innovativeness. IPRs have been identified as a central aspect of EU innovation policy. The harmonisation of IPRs provides a clear-cut mechanism for reducing trade barriers and simpl...

This chapter examines the relationship between organizational innovation, the introduction of new internet-based ICTs, de-verticalization, and the rapid growth in business-service outsourcing since the early 1990s. We present data on the range of activities that are being outsourced, and discuss a set of potential advantages associated with outsour...

This paper provides an evolutionary perspective on financial systems based on complex systems theory. This perspective is used to organize the discussion about the convergence and non-convergence of financial systems. Based on a notion of financial systems as configuration of complementary elements, it is suggested that the convergence of financial...

The analysis of the relationship between internationalisation and innovation of European firms using CIS micro data for 21 countries shows that these two aspects are interdependent. Innovation activities are positively related to export activities, and exports stimulate further innovation. The removal of barriers to innovation encourages internatio...

In 2010 the cash flow to sales ratio of the Austrian manufacturing sector is expected to have recovered from the decline associated with the economic crisis. Compared to 2008, 2009 was marked by a moderate drop to 10.0 percent. For 2010 econometric estimates based on a panel of NACE 2-digit industry data indicate a cash flow to sales ratio of appro...

The study's main feature consists in econometric estimations aiming at an approximate quantification of the effects of capital requirements for banks on the lending of small and medium sized Austrian regional banks to small and medium sized non-financial enterprises (SMEs). Small and medium sized banks focus on financing SMEs and therefore lend the...

This paper provides an overview on the evolutionary theory of the firm. The specific feature of the evolutionary approach is that it explains the adaptive behaviors of firms through the tension between innovation and selection. It is suggested that the evolutionary theory can provide a useful basis for a theory of the firm which is concerned with c...

Research collaboration is generally motivated by quality enhancement. The networks underlying collaborative knowledge production also serve as vehicles of knowledge diffusion. Both aspects are expected to contribute to the citation impact of publications. We analyse knowledge production in European biotechnology for the period 1988–2002 focusing on...

Research collaboration is generally motivated by quality enhancement. The networks underlying collaborative knowledge production also serve as vehicles of knowledge diffusion. Both aspects are expected to contribute to the citation impact of publications. We analyse knowledge production in European biotechnology for the period 1988-2002 focusing on...

The paper provides evidence on the role of sunk costs as mobility barriers. An empirical study of the Austrian manufacturing industry explicitly considers sunk costs related to investment in dedicated intangible assets. The results confirm the relevance of sunk costs as mobility barriers, their symmetry with respect to entry and exit, and show that...

We analyze sector specific shocks in productivity and demand in 19 manufacturing sectors of the Austrian economy. Based on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model with long run restrictions developed by Gali's (1999) we extract technology and non-technology shocks from sectoral andaggregate data and study their patterns and relationship by...

This paper examines the relationship between organisational innovation, the introduction of new internet-based ICTs, de-verticalisation, and the rapid growth in business service outsourcing over the last decade. In order to examine this issue, we develop a model of organisational innovation. In this model, the goal of managers is to identify an org...