Content uploaded by Vernon L Quinsey
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Vernon L Quinsey on Dec 29, 2020
Content may be subject to copyright.
$QQ1<$FDG6FL±1HZ<RUN$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV
$UH5DSLVWV'LIIHUHQWLDOO\$URXVHGE\&RHUFLYH
6H[LQ3KDOORPHWULF$VVHVVPHQWV"
0$57,1//$/80,Ê5(D9(5121/48,16(<E*5$177+$55,6F
0$51,((5,&(F$1'&$52/,1(75$875,0$6G
D&HQWUHIRU$GGLFWLRQDQG0HQWDO+HDOWK7RURQWR2QWDULR&DQDGD0-+
E4XHHQ¶V8QLYHUVLW\.LQJVWRQ2QWDULR&DQDGD./1
F0HQWDO+HDOWK&HQWUH3HQHWDQJXLVKHQH3HQHWDQJXLVKHQH2QWDULR&DQDGD/0*
G<RUN8QLYHUVLW\7RURQWR2QWDULR&DQDGD0-3
$%675$&7,QWKLVFKDSWHUZHH[DPLQHZKHWKHUUDSLVWVDUHVH[XDOO\DURXVHGE\
FRHUFLYHQRQFRQVHQVXDOVH[7KLVTXHVWLRQLVWKHRUHWLFDOO\LPSRUWDQWEHFDXVHLW
VSHDNVWRDSRWHQWLDOVH[XDOPRWLYDWLRQXQGHUO\LQJUDSH,WLVDOVRFOLQLFDOO\LP
SRUWDQWLQWKDWLWPD\UHYHDODQLPSRUWDQWDVVHVVPHQWDQGWUHDWPHQWWDUJHW:H
ILUVWUHYLVLWDQGXSGDWHTXDQWLWDWLYHUHYLHZVRIVWXGLHVWKDWH[DPLQHGWKHSKDO
ORPHWULFUHVSRQVHVRIUDSLVWVDQGRWKHUPHQ:HWKHQSUHVHQWQHZGDWDRQWKH
GLVFULPLQDWLYHDQGGLDJQRVWLFYDOLGLW\RIDSKDOORPHWULFWHVWIRUUDSLVWV)LQDOO\
ZHGLVFXVVPHWKRGRORJLFDODQGFRQFHSWXDOLVVXHVLQSKDOORPHWULFDVVHVVPHQW
DQGWKHQDWXUHRIUDSLVWV¶VH[XDOLQWHUHVWV
.(<:25'6 FRHUFLYH VH[ SKDOORPHWULF DVVHVVPHQWV QRQ±VH[ RIIHQGHUV
ELDVWRSKLOLDVDGLVP
,1752'8&7,21
([SODQDWLRQVRIUDSHVKRXOGEHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKZKDWLVNQRZQDERXWLQGLYLGXDO
GLIIHUHQFHVLQPHQ¶VSURSHQVLW\WRFRPPLWVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHDFWVDV ZHOO DV ZLWK
RWKHUHPSLULFDOILQGLQJVDERXWUDSHEXWVRPHWLPHVWKHILQGLQJVDSSHDUXQFOHDU,Q
WKLVDUWLFOHZHDWWHPSWWRFODULI\ZKDWLVNQRZQDERXWLQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQPHQ¶V
VH[XDODURXVDOWRFRHUFLYHVH[DQGZKHWKHUWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHVDUHUHODWHGWRWKHSUR
SHQVLW\WRFRPPLWUDSH
$FRPPRQPHWKRGWRDVVHVVPHQ¶VVH[XDODURXVDOWRFRHUFLYHVH[LVWRPHDVXUH
FKDQJHVLQHUHFWLOHUHVSRQVHVSKDOORPHWU\GXULQJWKHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHV
RIVH[XDOVWLPXOL²PRVWRIWHQUHFRUGHGQDUUDWLYHVGHSLFWLQJFRHUFLYHDQGQRQFRHU
FLYHVH[XDO LQWHUDFWLRQV%\PDQLSXODWLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVWLPXOLSHQLOHUH
VSRQVHVRIPHQNQRZQWRKDYHFRPPLWWHGUDSHFDQEHFRPSDUHGWRWKHUHVSRQVHVRI
PHQZKRDUHQRWNQRZQWRKDYHFRPPLWWHGVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHDFWV,IWKHUHLVDUHOD
$GGUHVVIRUFRUUHVSRQGHQFH 0/ /DOXPLqUH /DZDQG 0HQWDO +HDOWK 3URJUDP &HQWUHIRU
$GGLFWLRQ DQG 0HQWDO +HDOWK 8QLW WK )ORRU 4XHHQ 6WUHHW :HVW7RURQWR 2QWDULR
&DQDGD0-+9RLFHH[WID[
0DUWLQB/DOXPLHUH#FDPKQHW
$11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6
WLRQVKLSEHWZHHQPHQ¶VUHVSRQVHVWRVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHDQGQRQFRHUFLYHPDWHULDODQG
WKHLUSURSHQVLW\WRFRPPLWUDSHWKHPRVWVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGH[SHFWDWLRQLVWKDWUDSLVWV
ZLOO VKRZ JUHDWHU UHODWLYH DURXVDO WR VH[XDOO\FRHUFLYH PDWHULDO WKDQ RWKHU PHQ
7KHUHDUHRWKHUZD\VWRDVVHVVWKHOLQNEHWZHHQLQWHUHVWLQFRHUFLYHVH[DQGSURSHQ
VLW\IRUVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHDFWVHJ0DODPXWK,QWKLVFKDSWHUKRZHYHUZH
IRFXVSULQFLSDOO\RQWKHDELOLW\RIFXUUHQWSKDOORPHWULFSURFHGXUHVWRGHWHFWGLIIHU
HQFHVEHWZHHQUDSLVWVDQGRWKHUPHQDQGZKHWKHUWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHVKDYHH[SODQDWRU\
DQGFOLQLFDOXWLOLW\
0DQ\DXWKRUVKDYHDGGUHVVHGWKLVJHQHUDOTXHVWLRQDQGKDYHDUULYHGDWFRQWUDGLF
WRU\FRQFOXVLRQV7KHIDLOXUHWRDUULYHDWDYDOLGDJUHHGXSRQFRQFOXVLRQKDVOLPLWHG
RXUSURJUHVVLQXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHFDXVHVRIUDSHDQGLQSDUWLFXODUWKHVH[XDOPRWL
YDWLRQVIRUUDSH,QWKHIROORZLQJZHEULHIO\UHYLVLWWKHSKDOORPHWULFOLWHUDWXUHDQG
WKHQSURYLGHQHZGDWDRQWKHGLVFULPLQDWLYHDQGGLDJQRVWLFYDOXHRIDSKDOORPHWULF
WHVWIRUUDSLVWV:HWKHQGLVFXVVVRPHPHWKRGRORJLFDODQGFRQFHSWXDOLVVXHVDVVRFL
DWHGZLWKWKH SKDOORPHWULFDVVHVVPHQWRI UDSLVWV DQGLGHQWLI\ LPSRUWDQW UHVHDUFK
QHHGV
35(9,2865(9,(:62)3+$//20(75,&678',(6
1DUUDWLYHUHYLHZVRIVWXGLHVFRPSDULQJUDSLVWVZLWKRWKHUPHQKDYHOHGWRFRQ
IOLFWLQJFRQFOXVLRQVHJ/DXQD\0DUVKDOO)HUQDQGH]4XDQWLWDWLYH
UHYLHZPHWKRGVDUHVRPHWLPHVDEOHWRUHVROYHLVVXHVWKDWQDUUDWLYHUHYLHZVFDQQRW
EHFDXVHRIWKHLUJUHDWHUVWDWLVWLFDOSRZHUDQGVXSHULRUDELOLW\WRGHDOZLWKVDPSOLQJ
HUURUDQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOYDULDWLRQVDPRQJVWXGLHV2QHFDQFRQFHLYHRITXDQWLWDWLYH
UHYLHZVRUPHWDDQDO\VHVDVUHYLHZVLQZKLFKDOOVWXGLHVDUHMRLQWO\DQDO\]HGZLWK
VSHFLDOVWDWLVWLFDOWHFKQLTXHV7KHVXSHULRULW\RITXDQWLWDWLYHUHYLHZVRYHUQDUUDWLYH
RUTXDOLWDWLYHUHYLHZVLQSURGXFLQJYDOLGDQGFRQVLVWHQWFRQFOXVLRQVLVUHPLQLVFHQW
RIWKHVXSHULRULW\RIDFWXDULDOPHWKRGVRYHUFOLQLFDORULQWXLWLYHMXGJPHQWLQPDQ\
VSKHUHV RI OLIH 7ZR TXDQWLWDWLYH UHYLHZV XVLQJ VRPHZKDW GLIIHUHQW PHWKRGV RI
SKDOORPHWULF VWXGLHV RI UDSLVWV DSSHDUHG LQ WKH HDUO\ V %RWK PHWDDQDO\VHV
\LHOGHGYHU\VLPLODUUHVXOWV
+DOO 6KRQGULFN DQG +LUVFKPDQ H[DPLQHGQLQH SXEOLVKHG VWXGLHV WKDW
FRPSDUHGRIILFLDOO\GHWHFWHGRUVHOILGHQWLILHGUDSLVWVZLWKRWKHUPHQHLWKHUQRQRI
IHQGHUVRURWKHU VH[ RIIHQGHUV/DOXPLqUH DQG4XLQVH\H[DPLQHG SXE
OLVKHGDQGXQSXEOLVKHGVWXGLHV RQH VWXG\SURGXFHGWZR ILQGLQJV WKDWFRPSDUHG
RIILFLDOO\GHWHFWHGUDSLVWVZLWKQRQ±VH[RIIHQGHUVHLWKHURWKHURIIHQGHUVRUPHQUH
FUXLWHGIURPWKHJHQHUDOFRPPXQLW\7KHUDSHLQGH[DUDWLRRIUHVSRQVHVWRVWLPXOL
GHSLFWLQJUDSHWRUHVSRQVHV WR VWLPXOLGHSLFWLQJFRQVHQWLQJVH[ZDV D GHSHQGHQW
YDULDEOHLQERWKPHWDDQDO\VHV7KHVL]HRIWKHJURXSGLIIHUHQFHRQWKHUDSHLQGH[
IRUHDFKVWXG\ZDVFDSWXUHGE\&RKHQ¶VHIIHFW VL]HG WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH
PHDQVRIWKHWZRJURXSVGLYLGHGE\WKHSRROHGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ
7KHRYHUDOODYHUDJHGZDVLQ+DOOHWDODQGLQ/DOXPLqUHDQG4XLQVH\
DIWHUGHOHWLQJRQHSRVLWLYHRXWOLHU7KHVHDUHJHQHUDOO\FRQVLGHUHGPHGLXPWRODUJH
HIIHFWVL]HV&RKHQ7KHVHUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHWKDWUDSLVWVRQDYHUDJHUHVSRQGHG
UHODWLYHO\PXFKPRUHWRVFHQDULRVGHVFULELQJDPDQUDSLQJDZRPDQWKDQGLGRWKHU
PHQ1RWHWKDWWKHUDSHLQGH[LVDUHODWLYHPHDVXUHWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQUDSLVWV
/$/80,Ê5(HWDO$5(5$3,676',))(5(17,$//<$5286('"
DQGRWKHUPHQRFFXUUHGHYHQWKRXJKUDSLVWVGLGQRWDOZD\VSUHIHUUDSHWRFRQVHQVXDO
VWLPXOL),*85(VKRZVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRILQGLYLGXDOVWXG\HIIHFWVL]HVIURP/DOX
PLqUHDQG4XLQVH\
),*85(UHYHDOVWKDWDOOVWXGLHVSURGXFHGDSRVLWLYHHIIHFWVL]H²UDSLVWVDOZD\V
KDGDKLJKHUUDSHLQGH[WKDQWKHFRPSDULVRQJURXS%HFDXVHLWLVYHU\XQOLNHO\WKDW
FKDQFHIDFWRUVFRXOGKDYHSURGXFHGVXFKDGLVWULEXWLRQRIHIIHFWVL]HVELQRPLDOWHVW
3<LWLVLQFRQWHVWDEOHWKDWUDSLVWVGLIIHUHGIURPQRQUDSLVWVLQWKHLUUHVSRQVHV
WRVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHVWLPXOLUHODWLYHWRFRQVHQVXDOVWLPXOLLQWKHODERUDWRU\VWXGLHV
UHYLHZHG2QHUHDVRQZK\VRPHQDUUDWLYHUHYLHZVIDLOHGWRUHDFKFRQFOXVLRQVFRQ
VLVWHQWZLWKVXFKFOHDUGDWDLVWKDWVRPHLQGLYLGXDOVWXGLHVGLGQRWUHDFKVWDWLVWLFDO
VLJQLILFDQFH7KHVHVWXGLHVHLWKHUKDGDVPDOOVDPSOHVL]HSURGXFHGDVPDOOJURXS
GLIIHUHQFHRUERWK
),*85(DOVRVKRZVDZLGHYDULDWLRQLQHIIHFWVL]HV%RWKPHWDDQDO\VHVUHYHDOHG
WKDWVRPHVWXG\FKDUDFWHULVWLFVVLJQLILFDQWO\LQFUHDVHGDQGRWKHUVGHFUHDVHGWKHVL]H
RIWKHJURXSGLIIHUHQFH)RUH[DPSOHVWXGLHVXVLQJPRUHEUXWDODQGJUDSKLFUDSHVFH
QDULRVSURGXFHGODUJHUHIIHFWVL]HV$OVRVWXGLHVFRPSDULQJUDSLVWVWRRWKHUVH[RI
IHQGHUVSURGXFHGVPDOOHUHIIHFWVL]HVSUREDEO\EHFDXVHVRPHRIWKHVHFRPSDULVRQ
VH[RIIHQGHUVZHUHLQIDFWDOVRUDSLVWVRUEHFDXVHPDQ\VH[RIIHQGHUVKDYHPXOWLSOH
SDUDSKLOLFLQWHUHVWV$EHO5RXOHDX
1(:(53+$//20(75,&678',(6&203$5,1*5$3,676
$1'121±6(;2))(1'(56
$IHZVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQSXEOLVKHGVLQFH(FFOHV0DUVKDOODQG%DUEDUHH
SXEOLVKHGQHZGDWDIURPVXEMHFWVDOUHDG\LQFOXGHGLQ/DOXPLqUHDQG4XLQ
),*85( 'LVWULEXWLRQRIHIIHFWVL]HVIURP/DOXPLqUHDQG4XLQVH\
$11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6
VH\¶VPHWDDQDO\VLVXVLQJQHZVWLPXOLDQGUHSRUWHGQRGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ
UDSLVWVDQGFRPPXQLW\PHQ+RZHVDVVHVVHGUDSLVWVDQGQRQ±VH[
RIIHQGHUVXVLQJVWLPXOLSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIRUPRIVOLGHVDXGLRWDSHVDQGYLGHRWDSHV
5DSLVWVKDGVLJQLILFDQWO\ODUJHUUHVSRQVHVWRUDSHVWLPXOLWKDQFRQWUROV8QIRUWXQDWH
O\UDSHLQGH[HIIHFWVL]HVFDQQRWEHFRPSXWHGIRUWKHVHWZRVWXGLHVIURPWKHLQIRU
PDWLRQSUHVHQWHGLQWKHSDSHUV
7KUHHVWXGLHVSURGXFHGGDWDWKDWFRXOGEHFRQYHUWHGLQWRDUDSHLQGH[HIIHFWVL]H
5LFH&KDSOLQ+DUULVDQG&RXWWVDVVHVVHGUDSLVWVDQGQRQUDSLVWV
PHQIURPWKHFRPPXQLW\DQGPHQIURPWKHVDPHLQVWLWXWLRQDVWKHUDSLVWV$SUH
OLPLQDU\YHUVLRQRIWKLVVWXG\WKHSRVLWLYHRXWOLHUZDVLQFOXGHGLQ/DOXPLqUHDQG
4XLQVH\¶VPHWDDQDO\VLVEXWLQFOXGHGIHZHUVXEMHFWV7KHHIIHFWVL]HEDVHG
RQWKHUDSHLQGH[FDOFXODWHGDVDGLIIHUHQFHVFRUHZDVG=6HWRDQG%DUEDUHH
FRPSDUHGWKHUDSHLQGLFHVRIUDSLVWVDQGPHQUHFUXLWHGIURPWKHFRP
PXQLW\DQGREWDLQHGWKHILUVWDQGRQO\QHJDWLYHHIIHFWVL]HLQWKLVOLWHUDWXUHG=−
6HWRDQG.XEDQDVVHVVHGUDSLVWVDQGPHQUHFUXLWHGIURPWKHFRPPX
QLW\DQGREWDLQHGDSRVLWLYHHIIHFWVL]HG=WRGHSHQGLQJRQWKHW\SHRI
VWLPXOLXVHG
,QVXPWKUHHRIWKHILYH³QHZ´VWXGLHVVKRZHGJUHDWHUUHVSRQGLQJWRFRHUFLYHVH[
E\ UDSLVWV FRPSDUHG WR QRQ±VH[ RIIHQGHUV RQH VKRZHG QR GLIIHUHQFH DQG RQH
VKRZHGJUHDWHUUHVSRQGLQJDPRQJQRQ±VH[RIIHQGHUV7KHVHUHVXOWVGRQRWFKDQJH
WKHJHQHUDOFRQFOXVLRQWKDWUDSLVWVWHQGWREHPXFKPRUHDURXVHGE\VFHQDULRVGH
VFULELQJFRHUFLYHVH[UHODWLYHWRVFHQDULRVGHVFULELQJFRQVHQVXDOVH[WKDQPHQZKR
DUHQRWNQRZQWRKDYHFRPPLWWHGVH[RIIHQVHV6RPHVWXGLHVSURGXFHGVPDOOGLIIHU
HQFHVEXWDOOEXWRQHREWDLQHGGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHVDPHGLUHFWLRQ
7KHVWXG\E\5LFHHWDOSURGXFHGWKHODUJHVWHIIHFWVL]H2QWKHEDVLVRI
WKHPHWDDQDO\VHVRIPRGHUDWRUYDULDEOHVDQGUHVXOWVIURPRWKHUVWXGLHVHJ+DUULV
5LFH 4XLQVH\&KDSOLQ (DUOV 3URXO[ $XEXW 0F.LEEHQ &{Wp
4XLQVH\&KDSOLQ8SIROGZHFDQLGHQWLI\SUREDEOHUHDVRQVIRUWKLVODUJH
HIIHFW5LFHHWDOXVHGH[WUHPHO\YLROHQWDQGJUDSKLFVWLPXOLXVHGDODUJHQXPEHURI
VWLPXOLSHUFDWHJRU\DQGXVHGVFRULQJPHWKRGVWKDWPD[LPL]HGLVFULPLQDWLYHYDOLGLW\
678',(62)6(/),'(17,),('5$3,676
3KDOORPHWULFSURFHGXUHVFDQGHWHFWVH[XDODURXVDOWRFRHUFLYHVH[LQDGMXGLFDWHG
UDSLVWV&RXOGVXFKSURFHGXUHVGHWHFWVLPLODUSDWWHUQVDPRQJPHQZKRUHSRUWEHLQJ
UDSLVWV",QRWKHUZRUGVGRVHOILGHQWLILHGUDSLVWVGLIIHUVH[XDOO\IURPPHQZKRGR
QRWUHSRUWKDYLQJEHHQVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYH"$VPDOO QXPEHURIVWXGLHVVXJJHVWWKDW
WKH\GR ,QWKHVH VWXGLHVODUJHJURXSV RIPHQ XVXDOO\FROOHJH XQGHUJUDGXDWHV
ILOOHGRXWTXHVWLRQQDLUHVDERXWVH[XDOEHKDYLRUDQGDSURSRUWLRQZHUHLQYLWHGWRSDU
WLFLSDWHLQDSKDOORPHWULFVWXG\6RPHPHQUHSRUWHGWKH\KDGEHHQVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYH
DQGVRPHUHSRUWHGWKH\KDGQRW0RVWRIWKHVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHPHQUHSRUWHGHQJDJ
LQJLQFRHUFLYHEHKDYLRUWKDWZRXOGQRWPHHWPRVWOHJDOGHILQLWLRQVRIUDSH
0DODPXWKIRXQGWKDWDUDSHLQGH[ZDVWKHVWURQJHVWFRUUHODWHDPRQJD
ODUJHQXPEHURIYDULDEOHVRIVHOIUHSRUWHGVH[XDOFRHUFLRQ%HUQDW &DOKRXQDQG
$GDPVDQG/RKU$GDPVDQG'DYLVIRXQGWKDWVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHPHQ
/$/80,Ê5(HWDO$5(5$3,676',))(5(17,$//<$5286('"
ZHUHPRUHDURXVHGWRUDSHVFHQDULRVWKDQQRQFRHUFLYHPHQ/DOXPLqUHDQG4XLQVH\
KRZHYHUIRXQGQRGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQFRHUFLYHDQGQRQFRHUFLYHPHQ
$QRWKHUZD\WRORRNDWWKLVTXHVWLRQLVWRVWXG\PHQZKRUHSRUWDQLQWHUHVWLQUDSH
RUUHSRUW WKDW WKH\RIWHQ IDQWDVL]HDERXWLW 0DODPXWK DQG 0DODPXWKDQG
&KHFNIRXQGWKDWPHQZKRVDLGWKH\PLJKWHQJDJHLQUDSHLIWKHUHZHUHQR
DGYHUVHFRQVHTXHQFHVWRWKHPVHOYHVVKRZHGKLJKHUDURXVDOWRUDSHVFHQDULRVWKDQ
PHQZKRGHQLHGDQ\VXFKWHQGHQFLHV6HWRDQG.XEDQH[DPLQHGWKHUHVSRQV
HVRIHLJKWPHQZKRDGPLWWHGWRVDGLVWLFVH[XDOIDQWDVLHVEXWZKRGHQLHGDFWLQJRQ
WKHVHIDQWDVLHV7KHVHPHQSURGXFHGDUDSHLQGH[WKDWZDVQRWRQO\KLJKHUWKDQFRP
PXQLW\FRQWUROVEXWDOVRKLJKHUWKDQPHQZKRKDGDFWXDOO\FRPPLWWHGUDSHEXWZKR
GHQLHGVXFKIDQWDVLHV$OWRJHWKHUWKHVHILQGLQJVDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHH[SHFWDWLRQ
WKDWLQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQPHQ¶VSURSHQVLW\WRUDSHRUVH[XDOFRHUFLRQDUHDVVR
FLDWHGZLWKVH[XDODURXVDOWRGHSLFWLRQVRIVXFKDFWLYLWLHV
7+(1$785(2)7+(&203$5,621*5283
0DQ\VWXGLHVRIDGMXGLFDWHGUDSLVWVXVHGDFRPSDULVRQJURXSRI\RXQJXQLYHUVLW\
VWXGHQWVVRPHRI\RXQJPHQUHFUXLWHGIURPWKHFRPPXQLW\DQGYHU\IHZRIQRQ±
VH[RIIHQGHUVUHFUXLWHGIURPWKHVDPHLQVWLWXWLRQDVWKHUDSLVWV6RPHWLPHVFRQWURO
VXEMHFWVKDYHEHHQDVNHGDERXWSUHYLRXVVH[XDOFRHUFLRQEXWRIWHQDUHQRW,QJHQ
HUDOWKHQDWXUHRI WKH FRQWUROJURXSKDVKDGOLWWOH LPSDFW RQ WKHDELOLW\WRGHWHFW
JURXSGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQUDSLVWVDQGFRPSDULVRQVXEMHFWV2QHFRPSDULVRQJURXS
QRW\HWH[DPLQHGKRZHYHUDUHPHQZKRKDYHEHHQDJJUHVVLYHWRZDUGVZRPHQEXW
LQQRQVH[XDOZD\V
,QWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQZHSUHVHQWUHVXOWVIURPDQHZVWXG\RIDGMXGLFDWHGUDS
LVWVXVLQJWZRFRPSDULVRQJURXSV²RQHRIPHQUHFUXLWHGIURPWKHFRPPXQLW\ZKR
GHQLHGVH[XDOFRHUFLRQDQGDQRWKHURIPHQIURPWKHVDPHLQVWLWXWLRQDVWKHUDSLVWV
ZKRKDGFRPPLWWHGDWOHDVWRQHYLROHQWFULPHDJDLQVWDZRPHQEXWZKRKDGQRW²
EDVHGRQRIILFLDOUHFRUGVDQGWKHLUVHOIUHSRUW²EHHQVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYH
$1(:678'<
3DUWLFLSDQWV
3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHKHWHURVH[XDOPHQZKRKDGEHHQFKDUJHGZLWKDVH[XDODV
VDXOWRUZLWKDPRUHVHULRXVRIIHQVHOLNHPXUGHUZLWKDVH[XDOQDWXUHLQYROYLQJDQ
DGXOW ZRPDQ KHWHURVH[XDO RIIHQGHUV ZKR KDG EHHQ QRQVH[XDOO\ DVVDXOWLYH
DJDLQVWDW OHDVWRQH ZRPDQUDQJLQJIURPVLPSOHDVVDXOWWRPXUGHUDQGPHQ
IURPWKHORFDOFRPPXQLW\5DSLVWVZHUHUHFUXLWHGIURPWKH6H[XDO%HKDYLRU/DER
UDWRU\RIWKH0HQWDO+HDOWK&HQWUH3HQHWDQJXLVKHQHDPD[LPXPVHFXULW\SV\FKLDW
ULFKRVSLWDOLQ2QWDULR0RVWUDSLVWVZHUHDVVHVVHGDQGWKHQWUDQVIHUUHGWRDQRWKHU
LQVWLWXWLRQHLWKHUDQRWKHUKRVSLWDORUDSULVRQ1RQVH[XDODVVDXOWHUVZHUHUHFUXLWHG
IURP DPRQJ LQSDWLHQWV DW WKH VDPH LQVWLWXWLRQ &RPPXQLW\ PHQ ZHUH UHFUXLWHG
WKURXJKDGYHUWLVHPHQWVLQQHZVSDSHUVDQGHPSOR\PHQWDJHQFLHV&RPSDULVRQVXE
MHFWVZHUHSDLGIRUWKHLUSDUWLFLSDWLRQ
$11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6
$OOPHQZHUHVHOIGHFODUHGKHWHURVH[XDORQWKH.LQVH\VFDOHDQGDOOSURGXFHG
SKDOORPHWULFUHVSRQVHVWKDWZHUHUHDGLO\LQWHUSUHWDEOHLHWKH\SURGXFHGDQDYHU
DJHUHVSRQVH WR WKHQHXWUDOVWLPXOXVFDWHJRU\WKDWZDVORZHUWKDQ WKHDYHUDJHUH
VSRQVHWRDWOHDVWRQHRWKHUFDWHJRU\$VVDXOWHUVKDGQRUHFRUGRIVH[XDODVVDXOWDQG
OLNHWKHFRPPXQLW\PHQGLGQRWUHSRUWKDYLQJHQJDJHGLQVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHEHKDY
LRURQWKH6H[XDO([SHULHQFHV6XUYH\.RVV2URVRURQDQRWKHUEULHIVHOI
UHSRUWTXHVWLRQQDLUHRIFRHUFLYHVH[XDOEHKDYLRUDYDLODEOHIURPWKHILUVWDXWKRU
)RXURWKHUPHQSDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKHVWXG\EXWZHUHH[FOXGHGIURPWKHDQDO\VHVIRU
RQHRIWKUHHUHDVRQV2QHDVVDXOWHUDGPLWWHGKDYLQJEHHQVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHWRZDUGD
ZRPDQWZRUDSLVWVUHSRUWHGDKRPRVH[XDOJHQGHURULHQWDWLRQDQGRQHDVVDXOWHUGLG
QRWSURGXFHDQLQWHUSUHWDEOHSKDOORPHWULFSURILOH2IQRWHWKHUHZDVQRPLQLPXP
DEVROXWHSHQLOHUHVSRQVHFULWHULRQLQWKLVVWXG\
5DSLVWVZHUHRQDYHUDJH\HDUVROG6'=KDGEHHQPDUULHGRUKDG
OLYHGLQDFRPPRQODZUHODWLRQVKLSDQGKDGFRPSOHWHGKLJKVFKRRO$VVDXOWHUV
ZHUHRQDYHUDJH\HDUVROG6'=KDGEHHQPDUULHGRUKDGOLYHGLQDFRP
PRQODZUHODWLRQVKLSDQGKDGFRPSOHWHGKLJKVFKRRO&RPPXQLW\PHQZHUH
RQDYHUDJH\HDUVROG6'=KDGEHHQPDUULHGRUOLYHGLQDFRPPRQODZ
UHODWLRQVKLSDQGKDGFRPSOHWHGKLJKVFKRRO
$SSDUDWXV
3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUH VHDWHGLQ DUHFOLQLQJFKDLU ORFDWHG LQ D VRXQGDWWHQXDWHGDQG
HOHFWULFDOO\VKLHOGHGURRPHTXLSSHGZLWKDRQHZD\PLUURUDQGLQWHUFRP6NLQUHVLV
WDQFHZDVPHDVXUHGEXWQRWVFRUHG3HQLOHUHVSRQVHVZHUHPHDVXUHGXVLQJDPHUFX
U\LQUXEEHU VWUDLQ JDXJH WKDW WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV ILWWHG RQ WKH PLGVHFWLRQ RI WKHLU
SHQLVHV7KHOHDGVIURPWKHJDXJHZHUHFRQQHFWHGWRD3DUNV(OHFWURQLF0RGHO
3OHWK\VPRJUDSK 3HQLOH UHVSRQVHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG FRQWLQXRXVO\ IRU VHFRQGV
VWDUWLQJDWVHFRQGVDIWHUWKHRQVHWRIHDFKQDUUDWLYHDQGVWRUHGRQDFRPSXWHU7KH
QDUUDWLYHVZHUH SUHVHQWHG YLDD WDSHUHFRUGHU WKURXJK KHDGSKRQHV$OO UHFRUGLQJ
HTXLSPHQWZDV ORFDWHGRXWVLGHRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV¶URRP$ZRRGSDQHO ZLWK WZR
EXWWRQVZDVODLGDFURVVWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV¶FKDLUGXULQJWKHWHVWLQJVHVVLRQ
6WLPXOL
3DUWLFLSDQWV OLVWHQHG WR DXGLRWDSHG QDUUDWLYHV ZKLOH WKHLU SHQLOH UHVSRQVHV
ZHUHUHFRUGHG7KHQDUUDWLYHVZHUHWDNHQIURP5LFHHWDOZKRXVHGDODUJHU
VHWRIQDUUDWLYHV:HVHOHFWHGIURPWKHVHQDUUDWLYHVWZRQHXWUDOVRFLDOLQWHU
DFWLRQVIRXUFRQVHQWLQJVH[XDOLQWHUDFWLRQVIRXUQRQFRQVHQWLQJYLROHQWVH[XDOLQWHU
DFWLRQVLQZKLFK WKH UDSHYLFWLP ZDV GHVFULEHGDV H[SHULHQFLQJ LQWHQVH SDLQDQG
VXIIHULQJDQGIRXUQRQVH[XDOEXWYLROHQWLQWHUDFWLRQVLQZKLFKDZRPDQZDVSK\VL
FDOO\EHDWHQE\DPDQ+DOIRIWKHQDUUDWLYHVZHUHGHVFULEHGIURPWKHIHPDOHSRLQW
RIYLHZLQKHUYRLFHDQGKDOIIURPWKHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZLQKLVYRLFH7KHVDPH
PDOHDQGIHPDOHYRLFHVZHUHKHDUGLQDOOWKHVWRULHVDQGWKHWRQHRIWKHYRLFHVZDV
QHXWUDO7ZRDGGLWLRQDOQDUUDWLYHVRQHQHXWUDORQHFRQVHQWLQJZHUHSUHVHQWHGEH
IRUHWKHWHVWVHVVLRQDVZDUPXSVWRIDPLOLDUL]HWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVWRWKHSURFHGXUH$OO
QDUUDWLYHVFRQWDLQHGDSSUR[LPDWHO\ZRUGVDQGODVWHGDERXWVHFRQGV'HWDLOV
RIWKHVWUXFWXUHDQGIRUPDWRIWKHVWRULHVFDQEHIRXQGLQ5LFHHWDO
/$/80,Ê5(HWDO$5(5$3,676',))(5(17,$//<$5286('"
3URFHGXUH
8SRQDUULYDODWWKHODERUDWRU\SDUWLFLSDQWVUHFHLYHGDQH[SODQDWLRQRIWKHSURFH
GXUHDQGZHUHDVNHGWRLQVWDOOWKHJDXJHLQSULYDWH3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHLQVWUXFWHGWR
OLVWHQFDUHIXOO\WRHDFKVWRU\DQGWRUHVSRQGDVLIWKH\ZHUHDORQHDWKRPH7KH\ZHUH
DOVRDVNHGWRSUHVVWKHOHIWEXWWRQRQWKHZRRGSDQHOO\LQJDFURVVWKHLUFKDLUZKHQ
WKH\KHDUGVH[XDOPDWHULDODQGWKHULJKWEXWWRQZKHQWKH\KHDUGYLROHQWPDWHULDO
DQGERWKZKHQWKH\KHDUGVH[XDOO\YLROHQWPDWHULDO7KLVZDV GRQHWRHQVXUHWKDW
SDUWLFLSDQWVDWWHQGHGWRWKHFRQWHQWRIWKHVWLPXOL7KLVVHPDQWLFWUDFNLQJWDVNKDV
EHHQVKRZQWROLPLWDWWHPSWVDWYROXQWDU\FRQWURORIWKHSHQLOHUHVSRQVHHJ+DUULV
5LFH&KDSOLQ4XLQVH\3URXO[&{Wp$FKLOOH4XLQVH\&KDSOLQ
7KHDELOLW\RISDUWLFLSDQWVWRFRPSOHWHWKLVWDVNZDVPRQLWRUHGGXULQJWKHSUH
VHQWDWLRQRIWKHZDUPXSVWLPXOLDQGIHHGEDFNZDVJLYHQ(DFKQDUUDWLYHZDVSUH
VHQWHGDPLQLPXPRIVHFRQGVDIWHUWKHHQGRIWKHSULRUQDUUDWLYHLHDWWKHHQG
RIWKHUHFRUGLQJLQWHUYDOIRUWKHSULRUQDUUDWLYHDQGDIWHUWKH\KDGUHWXUQHGWREDVH
OLQHFLUFXPIHUHQWLDOOHYHO7KHWHVWVHVVLRQODVWHGDSSUR[LPDWHO\RQHKRXU
7UHDWPHQWRIWKH'DWD
7KHSHDNUHVSRQVHRFFXUULQJGXULQJWKHUHFRUGLQJLQWHUYDOVHFRQGVPLQXV
WKHEDVHOLQHZDVFDOFXODWHGIRUHDFKWULDODQGWKHQSHDNVFRUHVZHUHWUDQVIRUPHGLQWR
]VFRUHVIRUHDFKSDUWLFLSDQW7KXVHDFKSDUWLFLSDQWKDGDQDYHUDJHSHDNUHVSRQVH
IRUWKHZKROHVHVVLRQRI]HURZLWKDVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIRQH$QDYHUDJHUHVSRQVH
ZDVWKHQFDOFXODWHGIRUHDFKRIWKHIROORZLQJVHYHQVWLPXOXVFDWHJRULHVQHXWUDOFRQ
VHQWLQJIHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZFRQVHQWLQJPDOH SRLQWRIYLHZUDSHIHPDOHSRLQWRI
YLHZUDSHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZQRQVH[XDOYLROHQFHIHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZDQGQRQVH[
XDOYLROHQFHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZ$UDSHLQGH[ZDVWKHQFDOFXODWHGE\VXEWUDFWLQJWKH
DYHUDJHUHVSRQVHWRERWKFRQVHQWLQJFDWHJRULHVIURPWKHDYHUDJHUHVSRQVHWRERWK
UDSHFDWHJRULHV$SRVLWLYHUDSHLQGH[LQGLFDWHVDKLJKHUUHVSRQVHWRUDSHVWLPXOLD
5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
([DPLQDWLRQRI5HVSRQVH3URILOHV
),*85(VKRZVWKHDYHUDJHUHVSRQVHVRIWKHWKUHHJURXSVWRWKHVHYHQVWLPXOXV
FDWHJRULHV'HVSLWHGLIIHUHQFHVLQDJHHGXFDWLRQPDULWDOVWDWXVDQGRIIHQGHUVWDWXV
WKHWZRFRPSDULVRQJURXSVVKRZHGYHU\VLPLODUSURILOHVWKH\ERWKUHVSRQGHGPRUH
WRFRQVHQWLQJVFHQDULRVHVSHFLDOO\ZKHQGHVFULEHGIURPWKHIHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZ
WKDQWRDQ\RWKHUFDWHJRULHV5DSLVWVUHVSRQGHGVLPLODUO\WRERWKUDSHFDWHJRULHVDQG
WRFRQVHQWLQJVFHQDULRVGHVFULEHGIURPWKHIHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZDQGOHVVWRFRQVHQW
LQJVFHQDULRVGHVFULEHGIURPWKHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZ$YHUDJHUHVSRQVHVWRQRQVH[XDO
YLROHQFHZHUHORZIRUDOOWKUHHJURXSVDQGVLPLODUWRUHVSRQVHVWRQHXWUDOVFHQDULRV
D5DSHLQGH[=PHDQUDSH IHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZUDSHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZPLQXV PHDQFRQ
VHQWLQJIHPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZFRQVHQWLQJPDOHSRLQWRIYLHZ:HDOVRFDOFXODWHGDUDSHLQGH[
EDVHGRQ PD[LPXPFDWHJRU\VFRUHVUHSODFH PHDQ E\ PD[LPXP LQ WKH IRUPXOD DQG REVHUYHG
QHDUO\ LGHQWLFDO UHVXOWV 5DSH LQGLFHV FDOFXODWHG DV GLIIHUHQFH VFRUHV SURGXFH VOLJKWO\ JUHDWHU
JURXSGLVFULPLQDWLRQWKDQWKRVHFDOFXODWHGDVUDWLRVFRUHV+DUULVHWDO
$11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6
,QVXPFRPSDULVRQSDUWLFLSDQWVVKRZHGDSUHIHUHQFHIRUFRQVHQWLQJVFHQDULRV
ZKHUHDVUDSLVWVVKRZHGOLWWOHGLVFULPLQDWLRQEHWZHHQUDSHDQGFRQVHQWLQJVFHQDULRV
DQGSHUKDSVDVOLJKWSUHIHUHQFHIRUUDSH7KHSURILOHVVKRZQLQ),*85(DUHYHU\
VLPLODUWRWKHSURILOHVUHSRUWHGLQ5LFHHWDO9HU\VLPLODUSKDOORPHWULFDQG
UHFUXLWLQJSURFHGXUHVZHUHXVHGLQERWKVWXGLHV
5DSH,QGH[
),*85(VKRZVWKHJURXSDYHUDJHUDSHLQGH[WKHVWDWLVWLFRIPRVWLQWHUHVW7KH
WZRFRPSDULVRQJURXSVSURGXFHGQHDUO\LGHQWLFDODQGQHJDWLYHUDSHLQGLFHV5DSLVWV
SURGXFHGPXFKKLJKHUDQGSRVLWLYHUDSHLQGLFHV7KHUHZDVQRRYHUODSEHWZHHQWKH
FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIUDSLVWVDQGHDFKRIWKHWZRFRPSDULVRQJURXSV&RQVLV
WHQWZLWKWKHUHVSRQVHSURILOHVVKRZQLQ),*85(UDSLVWVDVDJURXSDOPRVWVKRZHG
DVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWDEVROXWHSUHIHUHQFHIRUUDSHVWLPXOLRYHUFRQVHQWLQJVWLPXOL
WKHORZHUERXQGRIWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOZDV±ZKHUHDVQRQUDSLVWVVKRZHG
DFOHDUDYHUDJHDEVROXWHSUHIHUHQFHIRUFRQVHQWLQJVWLPXOL
&RKHQ¶VHIIHFWVL]HIRUUDSLVWVYHUVXVFRPPXQLW\PHQZDVG=DQGYHUVXV
DVVDXOWHUVZDVG=7KHVHYDOXHVDUHODUJHDQGKLJKHUWKDQWKHDYHUDJHYDOXHV
UHSRUWHGLQWKHPHWDDQDO\VHVEXWDUHORZHUWKDQWKHHIIHFWVL]HREWDLQHGLQWKHRULJ
LQDOVWXG\RI5LFHHWDO2QHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\DQG5LFH
HWDOLVWKDWWKHSUHVHQWVWXG\XVHGDVPDOOHUQXPEHURIUDSHVFHQDULRVQXPEHURI
VWLPXOLSHUFDWHJRU\ZDVLGHQWLILHGLQ/DOXPLqUHDQG4XLQVH\¶VPHWDDQDO\VLV
DVDVLJQLILFDQWPRGHUDWRURIHIIHFWVL]HVVPDOOHUQXPEHU=VPDOOHUHIIHFWVL]H
),*85( 3KDOORPHWULFSURILOHVRIUDSLVWVDQGWZRFRPSDULVRQJURXSV
/$/80,Ê5(HWDO$5(5$3,676',))(5(17,$//<$5286('"
6HQVLWLYLW\DQG6SHFLILFLW\
/HWXVDVVXPHIRUWKLVDQDO\VLVWKDWDOOUDSLVWVSUHIHUUDSHWRFRQVHQWLQJVH[DQG
WKDWDOOQRQUDSLVWVSUHIHUFRQVHQWLQJVH[WRUDSH,IWKHSKDOORPHWULFWHVWLQWKLVVWXG\
LVYDOLGPRVWUDSLVWVZRXOGVKRZDUDSHLQGH[JUHDWHUWKDQ]HURDQGPRVWQRQUDSLVWV
ZRXOGVKRZDUDSHLQGH[VPDOOHUWKDQ]HURXQGHUWKDWDVVXPSWLRQ+RZZHOOFDQWKH
PHWKRGVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\FRUUHFWO\GHWHFWWKHVH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHIRUUDSHDPRQJUDS
LVWVVHQVLWLYLW\DQGWKHDEVHQFHRIVXFKDSUHIHUHQFHDPRQJQRQUDSLVWVVSHFLILFLW\"
7KHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHUDSHLQGH[DVDGLDJQRVWLFWRROXQGHUWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDW
JURXSPHPEHUVKLSLVWKHVDPHDVVH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHVWDWXVLVVKRZQLQ),*85(D
SORWRIWKHUDSHLQGH[¶VVHQVLWLYLW\DVDIXQFWLRQRIDOOSRVVLEOHOHYHOVRIVSHFLILFLW\
WKHUHFHLYHURSHUDWRUFKDUDFWHULVWLFRU52&7KLV52&LQGLFDWHVDODUJHHIIHFWVL]H
ZLWKDQDUHDXQGHUWKHFXUYHRIUHSUHVHQWVFKDQFHOHYHOUHSUHVHQWV
SHUIHFWDFFXUDF\6L[W\WKUHHSHUFHQWRIUDSLVWVDQGRIQRQUDSLVWVKDGDUDSH
LQGH[ODUJHUWKDQ]HURWKXVVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHUDSHLQGH[DW]HURZDVDQGVSHF
LILFLW\ZDV±=DQGEDVHGRQFRPPXQLW\PHQDQGDVVDXOWHUV
UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH YDOXHV DUH VLPLODU WR WKH YDOXHV REWDLQHG E\ /DOXPLqUH DQG
4XLQVH\ LQ WKHLU DQDO\VLV RI VHQVLWLYLWLHV DQG VSHFLILFLWLHV RI UDSH LQGLFHV
HTXDOWRRQHEHFDXVHWKH\XVHGDUDWLRVFRUHUDWKHUWKDQDGLIIHUHQFHVFRUHLQGDWD
VHWV VWXGLHV6WXGLHV XVLQJYLROHQW DQG JUDSKLF UDSH VFHQDULRV KDG PRGHUDWH
VSHFLILFLW\DQGKLJKVHQVLWLYLW\
),*85( $YHUDJHUDSHLQGH[IRUUDSLVWVDQGWZRFRPSDULVRQJURXSV
$11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6
2IFRXUVH PRVW VFKRODUV ZRXOG DUJXHWKDWVRPHPHQFRPPLWUDSHIRUUHDVRQV
RWKHUWKDQDVH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHIRUUDSHVRPHKDYHVXFKDSUHIHUHQFHZLWKRXWDFWLQJ
RQLWDQGVRPHHQJDJHLQVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHDFWVZLWKRXWJHWWLQJFDXJKWRUDGPLWWLQJ
LW)RUWKHVHUHDVRQVQRRQHZRXOGH[SHFWSHUIHFWEHWZHHQJURXSGLVFULPLQDWLRQE\
SKDOORPHWU\8QIRUWXQDWHO\WKHUHDUHQRHPSLULFDOGDWDWKDWZRXOGSHUPLWFRUUHFWLQJ
REWDLQHGVHQVLWLYLWLHVDQGVSHFLILFLWLHVIRUWKHVHVRXUFHVRIFRQWDPLQDWLRQ7KHGLV
FULPLQDWLRQREWDLQHGKHUHFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDPLQLPXP
7+(%(1&+0$5.
0DQ\ODERUDWRULHVDVVHVVLQJUDSLVWVKDYHUHSRUWHGWKDWDERXWRIUDSLVWVVKRZ
UDSHLQGLFHVWKDWDUHODUJHUWKDQWKHUDSHLQGLFHVRIDERXWRIQRQUDSLVWV,WWXUQV
RXWWKDWWKHFXWSRLQWWKDWSURGXFHVWKHVHQXPEHUVLVDVFRUHWKDWGHWHUPLQHVSUHIHU
HQFHLHDUDSHLQGH[JUHDWHUWKDQ]HURZKHQXVLQJDGLIIHUHQFHVFRUHRURQHZKHQ
XVLQJDUDWLRVFRUHVHH/DOXPLqUH4XLQVH\IRUDQHDUO\UHYLHZ&OLQLFLDQV
ZKRRSHUDWHSKDOORPHWULFODERUDWRULHVDQGZKRREWDLQUHVXOWVWKDWGHYLDWHVXEVWDQ
WLDOO\IURPWKLVEHQFKPDUNHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHGLUHFWLRQRIORZHUVHQVLWLYLW\DQG
VSHFLILFLW\PXVWGHWHUPLQHKRZWKHLUSURFHGXUHVRUWKHRIIHQGHUVWKH\DVVHVVGLIIHU
IURPWKHSURFHGXUHVRUVDPSOHVXVHGLQYDOLGDWLRQVWXGLHV
),*85( 5HFHLYHURSHUDWLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFRIWKHUDSHLQGH[LQVHWYDOXHVDUHUDSHLQ
GH[FXWRIIV
/$/80,Ê5(HWDO$5(5$3,676',))(5(17,$//<$5286('"
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOSURFHGXUHVWKDWKDYHEHHQIRXQGWRPD[LPL]HGLVFULPLQDWLYHYD
OLGLW\LQSKDOORPHWULFDVVHVVPHQWVHH+DUULVHWDODQGRWKHUVWKDWKDYHQRW
EHHQIRUPDOO\VWXGLHGEXWWKDWDUHXVHGUHJXODUO\LQYDOLGDWLRQVWXGLHV7KHVHLQFOXGH
PHWKRGVWRSUHYHQWRULQKLELWIDNLQJVHPDQWLFWUDFNLQJWDVN WKH VWLPXOXVPHGLD
DXGLRWDSHV UDWKHU WKDQ YLGHRWDSHV RU VWLOOSLFWXUHV WKH QDWXUH RI UDSH VFHQDULRV
YLROHQW DQG JUDSKLF WKH QXPEHU RI VFHQDULRV SHU FDWHJRU\ SUHIHUDEO\ IRXU RU
PRUHWKHXVHRIDUHFRUGLQJLQWHUYDOWKDWH[FHHGVWKHOHQJWKRIWKHVFHQDULREDVHOLQH
FDSWXUHIRUHDFKVWLPXOXVSUHVHQWDWLRQLQVWHDGRIGHWHUPLQLQJDVLQJOHEDVHOLQHDW
WKHVWDUWRIWKHVHVVLRQWKHXVHRIVWDQGDUGVFRUHVFDOFXODWHGZLWKLQVXEMHFWVWR
HOLPLQDWHEHWZHHQVXEMHFWGLIIHUHQFHVLQRYHUDOOUHVSRQVHPDJQLWXGHDQGSHQLVVL]H
DQGWKHXVHRIGHYLDQFHLQGLFHVWRIXUWKHUFDSWXUHUHODWLYHUHVSRQGLQJ
6DPSOHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVPD\DOVROHDGWRYDULDWLRQLQEHWZHHQJURXSGLVFULPLQD
WLRQDOWKRXJKPXFKOHVVLVNQRZQLQWKLVUHJDUG'HVSLWHVXJJHVWLRQVWKDWWKHUHH[LVW
YDOLGUDSLVWW\SRORJLHVDQGWKHVWDQGDUG²LIQRWKDFNQH\HG²FRPPHQWWKDWUDSLVWV
DUHKHWHURJHQHRXVYHU\OLWWOHLVNQRZQDERXWZKHWKHUWKHUHDUHLGHQWLILDEOHDQGWKH
RUHWLFDOO\PHDQLQJIXOVXEJURXSVRIUDSLVWVZKRKDYHDVH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHIRUUDSHDQG
RWKHUVXEJURXSVWKDWGRQRWIRUDVWHSLQWKDWGLUHFWLRQVHH%DUEDUHH6HWR6HULQ
$PRV3UHVWRQ,QRXUUHFHQWZRUNZHIRXQGWKDWUDSLVWVZKRVFRUHKLJKRQ
DPHDVXUHRISV\FKRSDWK\WKH3V\FKRSDWK\&KHFNOLVW5HYLVHGKDYHKLJKHUWKDQDY
HUDJHUDSHLQGLFHV+DUULVVHHDOVR)LUHVWRQH%UDGIRUG*UHHQEHUJ6HUUDQ
:HPLJKWH[SHFW WKDW UDSLVWVZKRKDYHPRUHYLFWLPV$EHO%HFNHU%ODQ
FKDUG'MHQGHUHGMLDQKDYHLQIOLFWHGJUHDWHULQMXU\WRWKHLUYLFWLPV4XLQVH\
&KDSOLQRUZKRKDGFRPPLWWHGWKHLUILUVWUDSHDWDQHDUOLHUDJHZRXOGKDYH
KLJKHUUDSHLQGLFHVEXWOLWWOHZRUNKDVEHHQGRQHLQWKLVDUHD$PRQJWKHUDSLVWVLQ
WKHSUHVHQWVWXG\UDSHLQGH[VFRUHVZHUHSRVLWLYHO\UHODWHGWR3V\FKRSDWK\&KHFN
OLVW5HYLVHGVFRUHV6SHDUPDQ¶VUKR=Q=QXPEHURIYLFWLPVQ=
EXWLQYHUVHO\WRYLFWLPLQMXU\VFRUHV−Q=2QHPLJKWDOVRH[SHFWWKDWUDSLVWV
DVVHVVHGSUHWULDOZRXOG\LHOGOHVVGHYLDQWUHVXOWVFRPSDUHGWRUDSLVWVDVVHVVHGSRVW
WULDOEHFDXVHSUHWULDODVVHVVHHVKDYHJUHDWHULQFHQWLYHVIRUGLVVLPXODWLRQDQGEH
WZHHQQDwYHILUVWWLPHYHUVXVH[SHULHQFHGDVVHVVHHVEHFDXVHGHYLDQFHVFRUHVWHQG
WRGHFUHDVHDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHQXPEHURIDVVHVVPHQWV
%,$6723+,/,$6$',6025$17,62&,$/,7<
2QHLQWHUHVWLQJTXHVWLRQIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKLVWRGLVWLQJXLVKDPRQJWKUHHWKHRUHW
LFDOO\GLVWLQFWVH[XDODURXVDOSDWWHUQVDVWKH\DSSO\WRUDSLVWV¶SKDOORPHWULFUHVSRQV
HV7KHILUVWK\SRWKHWLFDOO\SRVVLEOHSURILOHUHIOHFWVELDVWRSKLOLD²VH[XDODURXVDOWR
VH[XDODFWLYLWLHVLQYROYLQJDQRQFRQVHQWLQJVWUXJJOLQJUHVLVWLQJEXWQRWQHFHVVDULO\
LQMXUHG RU SK\VLFDOO\ VXIIHULQJYLFWLP 7KH VHFRQG SRVVLELOLW\ LV VDGLVP²VH[XDO
DURXVDOWRSDLQVXIIHULQJDQGLQMXU\,QWKHRU\DWOHDVWVDGLVPLQFOXGHVVH[XDODURXV
DOWRWKHVXIIHULQJH[SHULHQFHGE\VRPHRQHZKRVHHNVSDLQDPDVRFKLVW7KHWKLUG
SRVVLELOLW\LV VLPSO\JHQHUDODQWLVRFLDOLW\²LQGLIIHUHQFHLQFOXGLQJVH[XDO LQGLIIHU
HQFHWRWKHLQWHUHVWVIHHOLQJVDQGGHVLUHVRIRWKHUV
7KHPRVWFRQVLVWHQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQFRQVHQWLQJDQGUDSHVFHQDULRVLQSKDOOR
PHWULFVWXGLHVKDVWRGRZLWKZKHWKHUWKH³SDUWQHUYLFWLP´FRQVHQWVWRVH[LHHQ
JDJHVHDJHUO\RUIRUFHIXOO\VD\VQRDQGSK\VLFDOO\UHVLVWV7KHUDSHLQGH[LVXVXDOO\
FDOFXODWHGE\FRPSDULQJDOOFRQVHQWLQJVFHQDULRVRQWKHRQHKDQGDQGDOOUDSHVFH
$11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6
QDULRVRQWKHRWKHUKDQGUHJDUGOHVVRIRWKHUYDULDWLRQVLQFRQWHQW7KHIDFWWKDWJRRG
JURXSGLVFULPLQDWLRQLVWKHUHE\DFKLHYHGVXJJHVWVWKDWELDVWRSKLOLDLVEHLQJGHWHFWHG
+RZHYHUPDQ\SKDOORPHWULFVWXGLHVRIUDSLVWVDQGRWKHUPHQZKRKDYHDSURFOLYLW\
WRUDSHKDYHVKRZQWKDWJURXSGLVFULPLQDWLRQLVHQKDQFHGE\WKHGHVFULSWLRQRISDLQ
LQMXU\DQGKXPLOLDWLRQE\YLFWLPVLQUDSHVFHQDULRV 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW VDGLVP LV
EHLQJGHWHFWHG)LQDOO\WKHILQGLQJWKDWSV\FKRSDWK\VFRUHVDUHSRVLWLYHO\UHODWHGWR
SKDOORPHWULFUDSHLQGLFHVVXJJHVWVWKDWUDSHDOVRUHIOHFWVDYHU\JHQHUDOQRWVSHFLI
LFDOO\VH[XDOLQGLIIHUHQFHWRWKHH[SHULHQFHRIWKHYLFWLPSRUWUD\HG%DUEDUHH0DU
VKDOO /DQWKLHU4XLQVH\&KDSOLQ)XUWKHUWHDVLQJDSDUW RI WKHVH
WKHRUHWLFDOSRVVLELOLWLHVPLJKWUHYHDOVRPHNH\PRWLYDWLRQDOIDFWRUVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
UDSH
&+$//(1*(6)255(6($5&+(56
7KHVWXG\ RI SKDOORPHWULFDVVHVVPHQW RI UDSLVWVKDV JRQHRQ IRUGHFDGHV EXW
PDQ\LPSRUWDQWTXHVWLRQVDUHDV\HWXQDQVZHUHG$VGLVFXVVHGDERYHWKHWKHRUHWLFDO
GLVWLQFWLRQVDPRQJELDVWRSKLOLDVDGLVPDQGDQWLVRFLDOLW\DQGWKHLUYDULRXVSRVVLEOH
FRPELQDWLRQV UHSUHVHQW LPSRUWDQW HPSLULFDOTXHVWLRQV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHRUHWLFDO
TXHVWLRQVWKHUHDUHVHYHUDOSURFHGXUDODQGFOLQLFDOTXHVWLRQV:KDWSKDOORPHWULFSUR
FHGXUHVLQDGGLWLRQWRWKRVHDOUHDG\HOXFLGDWHGPD[LPL]HWKH GHWHFWLRQRIVH[XDO
DURXVDOWRUDSHDPRQJUDSLVWV":KDWLVWKHEHVWZD\WRDVVHVVWKHUHOLDELOLW\RISKDO
ORPHWULFUHVSRQVHVLQJHQHUDODQGRIWKHUDSHLQGH[LQSDUWLFXODUDQGKRZFDQZH
UHFRQFLOHWKHIDFWWKDWVRPHDVVHVVPHQWVRIUHOLDELOLW\IRUSKDOORPHWU\DUHORZ\HWDW
WKHVDPHWLPHLQGLFHVRIYDOLGLW\DUHKLJK"+RZZHOOVKRXOGWKHUDSHLQGH[GLVFULP
LQDWHDPRQJ GLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIVH[RIIHQGHUVFRQVLGHULQJWKDWGLIIHUHQWLQGLFHVRI
VH[XDOGHYLDQFHFRUUHODWHZLWKRQHDQRWKHUVHH&{Wp(DUOV/DOXPLqUHDQG
WKDWPDQ\VH[RIIHQGHUVDUHJHQHUDOLVWV":KHQWKHEHVWPHWKRGVDUHHPSOR\HGKRZ
ZHOOGRSKDOORPHWULFUHVSRQVHVSUHGLFWUHFLGLYLVPDPRQJUDSLVWVHJ4XLQVH\/D
OXPLqUH5LFH+DUULV":KDWDUHWKHEHKDYLRUDODQGSV\FKRORJLFDOFRUUHODWHV
RIWKHUDSHLQGH[DQGWKHVH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHWKDWLWUHSUHVHQWVHJ&{WpHWDO
/DOXPLqUH+DUULV4XLQVH\5LFH"$UHWKHVH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHVDVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKUDSHPRGLILDEOHRUDWOHDVWPDQDJHDEOH")LQDOO\DQGFUXFLDOO\KRZFDQWKHVH[
XDOSUHIHUHQFHVFKDUDFWHULVWLFRIDGMXGLFDWHGDQGVHOILGHQWLILHGUDSLVWVLQIRUPFXU
UHQWWKHRULHVRIUDSH"9HU\IHZWKHRULHVLIDQ\H[SOLFLWO\DGGUHVVWKHUROHRIWKLV
LPSRUWDQWLQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHIDFWRU&RXOGLWEHWKDWPDQ\WKHRUHWLFLDQVDQGFOLQL
FLDQVDUHUHOXFWDQWWRFRQVLGHUWKHLGHDWKDWPDQ\UDSLVWVGRZKDWWKH\GREHFDXVHLW
LVVH[XDOO\DURXVLQJRUJUDWLI\LQJ"
$&.12:/('*0(176
:HDUHJUDWHIXOWR5D\%ODQFKDUG-HVVLFD%ULVWRZH'DQLHO.UXSS0LFKDHO6HWR
DQG6FRWW:RRGVLGHIRUWKHLUFRPPHQWVRQDQHDUOLHUYHUVLRQRIWKLVSDSHUWR7HUU\
&KDSOLQ*DUWK&ROHPDQ7LQD6PLWK.UDQVDQG0LFKHO/DURVHIRUWKHLUKHOSZLWK
GDWDFROOHFWLRQDQGWR WKH 6RFLDO6FLHQFHVDQG+XPDQLWLHV 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLOIRU
ILQDQFLDOVXSSRUW7KHVHFRQGDXWKRUZDVSDUWLDOO\VXSSRUWHGE\D6HQLRU5HVHDUFK
)HOORZVKLSIURPWKH2QWDULR0HQWDO+HDOWK)RXQGDWLRQ
/$/80,Ê5(HWDO$5(5$3,676',))(5(17,$//<$5286('"
5()(5(1&(6
$%(/**%(&.(5'+%/$1&+$5'(%'-(1'(5('-,$1'$'LIIHUHQWLDWLQJ
VH[XDODJJUHVVLYHVZLWKSHQLOHPHDVXUHV&ULPLQDO-XVWLFHDQG%HKDYLRU±
$%(/**528/($8-/7KHQDWXUHDQGH[WHQWRIVH[XDODVVDXOW,Q:/0DU
VKDOO'5/DZV+(%DUEDUHH(GV+DQGERRNRIVH[XDODVVDXOW,VVXHVWKHR
ULHVDQGWUHDWPHQWRIWKHRIIHQGHUSS±1HZ<RUN3OHQXP3UHVV
%$5%$5((+(0$56+$//://$17+,(55''HYLDQWVH[XDODURXVDOLQUDS
LVWV%HKDYLRXU5HVHDUFKDQG7KHUDS\±
%$5%$5((+(6(720&6(5,15&$0261/35(6721'/&RPSDUL
VRQVEHWZHHQVH[XDODQGQRQVH[XDOUDSLVWVXEW\SHV6H[XDODURXVDOWRUDSHRIIHQVH
SUHFXUVRUVDQGRIIHQVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV&ULPLQDO-XVWLFHDQG%HKDYLRU±
%(51$7-$&$/+281.6$'$06+(6H[XDOO\DJJUHVVLYHDQGQRQDJJUHV
VLYHPHQ6H[XDODURXVDODQGMXGJPHQWVLQ UHVSRQVHWRDFTXDLQWDQFHUDSHDQGFRQ
VHQVXDODQDORJXHV-RXUQDORI$EQRUPDO3V\FKRORJ\±
&2+(1-$SRZHUSULPHU3V\FKRORJLFDO%XOOHWLQ±
&Ð7e.($5/6&0/$/80,Ê5(0/%LUWKRUGHUELUWKLQWHUYDODQGGHYLDQW
VH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHVDPRQJVH[RIIHQGHUV6H[XDO$EXVH±
(&&/(6$ 0$56+$//:/%$5%$5((+( 'LIIHUHQWLDWLQJUDSLVWV DQG QRQ
RIIHQGHUVXVLQJWKHUDSHLQGH[%HKDYLRXU5HVHDUFKDQG7KHUDS\±
),5(6721(3%5$')25'-0*5((1%(5*'0 6(55$1*$7KHUHODWLRQ
VKLS RI GHYLDQW VH[XDO DURXVDO DQG SV\FKRSDWK\ LQ LQFHVW RIIHQGHUV H[WUDIDPLOLDO
FKLOGPROHVWHUVDQGUDSLVWV-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDQ$FDGHP\RI3V\FKLDWU\DQGWKH
/DZ±
+$//*&16+21'5,&.'' +,56&+0$157KHUROHRIVH[XDODURXVDOLQ
VH[XDOO\DJJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU$PHWDDQDO\VLV-RXUQDORI &RQVXOWLQJ DQG &OLQLFDO
3V\FKRORJ\
+$55,6*72FWREHU3V\FKRSDWK\ DQG VH[XDO GHYLDQFH 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH
WK$QQXDO5HVHDUFKDQG 7UHDWPHQW&RQIHUHQFHRI WKH $VVRFLDWLRQ IRU WKH 7UHDW
PHQWRI6H[XDO$EXVHUV9DQFRXYHU%&&DQDGD
+$55,6*75,&(0(&+$3/,17&48,16(<9/'LVVLPXODWLRQLQSKDOORP
HWULFWHVWLQJRIUDSLVWV¶VH[XDOSUHIHUHQFHV$UFKLYHVRI6H[XDO%HKDYLRU±
+$55,6*75,&(0(48,16(<9/&+$3/,17&($5/6&00D[LPL]
LQJWKHGLVFULPLQDQWYDOLGLW\RISKDOORPHWULFDVVHVVPHQW3V\FKRORJLFDO$VVHVVPHQW
±
+2:(65-3OHWK\VPRJUDSKLFDVVHVVPHQWRILQFDUFHUDWHGQRQVH[XDORIIHQGHUV$
FRPSDULVRQZLWKUDSLVWV6H[XDO$EXVH±
.266032526&-6H[XDO([SHULHQFHV6XUYH\$UHVHDUFKLQVWUXPHQWLQYHV
WLJDWLQJVH[XDODJJUHVVLRQDQGYLFWLPL]DWLRQ-RXUQDORI&RQVXOWLQJDQG&OLQLFDO3V\
FKRORJ\±
/$/80,Ê5(0/+$55,6*748,16(<9/5,&(0(6H[XDOGHYLDQFHDQG
QXPEHURIROGHUEURWKHUVDPRQJVH[XDORIIHQGHUV6H[XDO$EXVH±
/$/80,Ê5(0/48,16(<9/7KHVHQVLWLYLW\RISKDOORPHWULFPHDVXUHVZLWK
UDSLVWV$QQDOVRI6H[5HVHDUFK±
/$/80,Ê5(0/48,16(< 9/ 7KH GLVFULPLQDELOLW\ RI UDSLVWV IURP QRQVH[
RIIHQGHUV XVLQJ SKDOORPHWULF PHDVXUHV $ PHWDDQDO\VLV &ULPLQDO -XVWLFH DQG
%HKDYLRU±
/$/80,Ê5(0/ 48,16(<9/ 6H[XDO GHYLDQFH DQWLVRFLDOLW\PDWLQJ HIIRUW
DQGWKHXVHRIVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHEHKDYLRUV3HUVRQDOLW\DQG,QGLYLGXDO'LIIHUHQFHV
±
/$81$<* 7KH SKDOORPHWULFDVVHVVPHQWRIVH[RIIHQGHUV$Q XSGDWH &ULPLQDO
%HKDYLRXUDQG0HQWDO+HDOWK±
/2+5%$$'$06+( '$9,6-0 6H[XDODURXVDOWRHURWLF DQG DJJUHVVLYH
VWLPXOLLQVH[XDOO\FRHUFLYHDQGQRQFRHUFLYHPHQ-RXUQDORI$EQRUPDO3V\FKRORJ\
±
0$/$087+105DSHSURFOLYLW\DPRQJPDOHV-RXUQDORI6RFLDO,VVXHV±
0$/$087+103UHGLFWRUVRIQDWXUDOLVWLFVH[XDODJJUHVVLRQ-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDO
LW\DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\±
$11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6
0$/$087+10&+(&.-96H[XDODURXVDOWRUDSHGHSLFWLRQV,QGLYLGXDOGLI
IHUHQFHV-RXUQDORI$EQRUPDO3V\FKRORJ\±
0$56+$//:/)(51$1'(=<0 3KDOORPHWULFWHVWLQJZLWKVH[XDORIIHQGHUV
/LPLWVWRLWVYDOLGLW\&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\5HYLHZ±
3528/;- $8%87-0&.,%%(1$&Ð7e03HQLOHUHVSRQVHRIUDSLVWVDQG
QRQUDSLVWV WR UDSH VWLPXOL LQYR OYLQJ SK\VLFDO YLROHQFH RU KXPLOLDWLRQ $UFKLYHV RI
6H[XDO%HKDYLRU±
3528/;-&Ð7e*$&+,//( 3$ 3UHYHQWLRQ RI YROXQWDU\ FRQWURO RI SHQLOH
UHVSRQVH LQ KRPRVH[XDO SHGRSKLOHV GXULQJ SKDOORPHWULF WHVWLQJ -RXUQDO RI 6H[
5HVHDUFK±
48,16(<9/&+$3/,17&3HQLOHUHVSRQVHVWRQRQVH[XDOYLROHQFHDPRQJUDS
LVWV&ULPLQDO-XVWLFHDQG%HKDYLRU±
48,16(<9/&+$3/,17&6WLPXOXVFRQWURORIUDSLVWV¶DQGQRQVH[RIIHQGHUV¶
VH[XDODURXVDO%HKDYLRUDO$VVHVVPHQW±
48,16(<9/&+$3/,17&3UHYHQWLQJIDNLQJLQSKDOORPHWULFDVVHVVPHQWVRIVH[
XDOSUHIHUHQFH,Q5$3UHQWN\9/4XLQVH\(GV+XPDQVH[XDODJJUHVVLRQ&XU
UHQWSHUVSHFWLYHVSS±1HZ<RUN$QQDOVRI1HZ<RUN$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV
48,16(<9/&+$3/,17&83)2/''6H[XDODURXVDOWRQRQVH[XDOYLROHQFH
DQGVDGRPDVRFKLVWLFWKHPHVDPRQJUDSLVWVDQGQRQVH[RIIHQGHUV-RXUQDORI &RQ
VXOWLQJDQG&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\±
48,16(< 9/ /$/80,Ê5( 0/ 5,&(0(+
$55,6 *7 3UHGLFWLQJ VH[XDO
RIIHQVHV,Q-&&DPSEHOO(G$VVHVVLQJGDQJHURXVQHVV9LROHQFHE\VH[XDORIIHQG
HUVEDWWHUHUVDQGFKLOGDEXVHUVSS±1HZEXU\3DUN6DJH3XEOLFDWLRQV
5,&(0(&+$3/,17&+$55,6*7&28776-(PSDWK\IRUWKHYLFWLPDQG
VH[XDODURXVDODPRQJUDSLVWVDQG QRQUDSLVWV -RXUQDO RI ,QWHUSHUVRQDO 9LROHQFH
±
6(720&%$5%$5((+(9LFWLPEODPHDQGVH[XDODURXVDOWRUDSHFXHVLQUDS
LVWVDQGQRQRIIHQGHUV$QQDOVRI6H[5HVHDUFK±
6(720&.
8%$1 0 &ULWHULRQUHODWHG YDOLGLW\ RI D SKDOORPHWULF WHVW IRU
SDUDSKLOLFUDSHDQGVDGLVP%HKDYLRXU5HVHDUFKDQG7KHUDS\±