Takao Terano

Tokyo Institute of Technology | TITech · Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science

This paper describes new applications of a Large Language Model (LLM) for business domains. So far, we have conducted research on agent-based simulation models to uncover complex socio-technical systems. However, to let ordinary business people understand the models and their consequences, conventional validation or visualization methods are not en...

This study introduces a novel experience-mapping methodology designed to alleviate the challenge of delayed comprehension in education. Education often entails a delayed understanding of its content and value. This comprehension lag often results in discrepancies between learners and educational content, potentially leading to setbacks in the learn...

This study proposes a method for analyzing gaming simulation results. The gaming simulation we focus on intends to be played by both human and computer agent players. To extract the knowledge of what and how they have played, we must determine what type of decision-making process leads to specific scenarios. Such simulation results, however, tend t...

Both agent modeling and gaming simulation are useful tools for complex business decision-making tasks. However, to utilize the tools in practical business situations, we must integrate them from abstract viewpoints. To tackle the issues, based on our previous work, we explain two formal descriptive models: Managerial Decision-Making Description Mod...

The OLMAR method, which stands for the on-line moving average reversion method, is reported to be one of the most powerful among portfolio selection algorithms in the stock markets. In this research, we use intensive statistical and simulation analyses of long-term data on stock market changes to uncover the secrets of why and when the superiority...

Various methodologies have been proposed for extracting knowledge from the output results and logs of social simulations. Such analysis methods are important not only for model developers and analysts, but also for sharing knowledge and communication among other stakeholders. In this paper, we attempt to apply the System Experience Boundary Map, wh...

The purpose of this paper is to formalize the plural business innovation cases to compare each other. In case method learning, class discussions are based on cases that summarize actual business processes. This paper presents a model to re-description formally business innovation cases written in natural language. The model we named Managerial Deci...

We propose a mapping model for describing transition processes of customer experiences in business innovation cases. Named as System Experience Boundaries Map (SEBM), this mapping model mainly focuses on boundaries that constrain the customer latent experiences. SEBM also represents a customer-side process of business innovation as a resolution of...

This chapter explores the nature of innovation from the perspectives of evolutionary computation principles. So far, the disciplines of innovation have been mainly discussed in management science literature, however, some of the recent articles address the transdisciplinary characteristic of innovation-related issues from system science standpoints...

Agent simulation is a tool to know about a could-be world. Also, gaming simulation is a language to communicate the future. This chapter discusses a new approach to understand complex socio-technical systems through both concepts. We start basic features on complex and/or complicated socio-technical systems, which address both technical and social...

Although the performance of new product development (PD) is dependent on the structure and formation of design teams, effective configuration of the PD teams remains largely unexplored. According to social network research, teams are often organized in either closely connected or sparse structure. We conceptualize PD projects as collective problem-...

It has been around for nearly 40 years since I joined with the academic world in computer science related areas. Because I prefer to concrete real world topics, I, as a system scientist, usually research and develop challenging cutting-edge applications on complex systems. By complex systems, I do not only mean such areas as complex adaptive system...

This paper proposes a novel formal description model of organizational decision-making: the Managerial Decision-Making Description Model (MDDM). This model introduces a four terminal element representation to describe managerial decisions redefining relationship between their objectives and resources. It enables them to compare various decision-mak...

Researchers are aware of the importance of debriefing in gaming. However, there has been little progress in establishing a methodology for evaluating player behavior. Therefore, we propose a framework to support the evaluation of player behavior in business games using computers. Specifically, we introduce a simulation analysis methodology that inv...

This study focuses on the influence of financial institutions’ behavior under financial regulation on financial systems. For this purpose, the authors propose simulation models of systemic risks expressing financial regulation and the financing and investment behavior of financial institutions. Using this model, scenario analysis is performed based...

Europe and Japan have both adopted negative interest rate policies as part of their monetary easing measures. However, despite the benefits that are claimed to be associated with increased lending demand, significant concerns exist regarding an increased burden on private financial institutions as a result of the application to their excess reserve...

This research has two objectives: (1) to model and analyze the momentum effect and (2) to propose a portfolio-reconstruction algorithm that uses the momentum effect to obtain excess return. The momentum effect tends to be present in the stock market and describes the phenomenon whereby rising (declining) stocks tend to continue to rise (decline). H...

Organizations can be considered as complex systems that can adapt to their changing environment. In this work, we study a complex system adapting to an unfamiliar environment with learning; this is grounded in the context of the post-acquisition integration of the companies. More specifically, we conceptualize post-acquisition integration from the...

This research has two objectives: (1) to model the momentum effect, (2) to propose a portfolio selection algorithm MESPSA that can use the momentum effect to obtain excess profit. The momentum effect is a phenomenon in which stocks that rise (decline) tend to continue to rise (decline), and momentum effect is a phenomenon often seen in the stock ma...

In this study, we examined the “short-term Mean Reverting Phenomenon” from two aspects. First, we clarified that excess return can be obtained by using the short-term Mean Reverting Phenomenon for the On-Line Moving Average Reversion (OLMAR) method, which is a portfolio selection algorithm and reportedly exhibits high performance. Then, we examined...

This paper presents a real time workers' behavior analyzing system using wearable sensors which combine Bluetooth low energy beacon (Beacon) and acceleration sensor to measure production progress and work history data in a cellular manufacturing system. It takes a lot of cost to collect those data on the cellular manufacturing line where workers' w...

Mergers and acquisitions become popular means for the development of modern corporations, allowing companies to obtain quick access to new markets and source to grow. Post-acquisition integration has been recognized to be influential to the success of M&A. In this paper, we develop an agent-based model to study post-acquisition integration strategi...

http://doi.org/10.12937/ejsise.15.28 We discuss how a system to support the facilitation efforts of inexperienced case leaders can be brought close to reality. We begin by considering methods to support facilitation efforts directed at novices. For this purpose, we conduct two tests. Using the test results, we propose that as one capability of a su...

Since systemic risk in recent financial crisis has received attention, a wide variety of studies on how financial regulations should be reformed to control such risk have been progressed. Among these, mathematical and computational studies have analyzed the way how the borrowing and lending banks and the borrowers go bankrupt in the chain via inter...

In the area of knowledge-based information systems, TV recommendation systems have attracted researchers’ attention with the development of Smart TV and expansion of TV content . Traditional TV recommendation systems, which are based on individual’s viewing activity and only recommending TV programs, have been unable to meet the requirements of Sma...

Top management is important in an organization, but the role of middle managers is also important. In this paper, we focus on identifying the characteristics of a middle manager or "workplace leader." The workplace leader needs to be proficient in the business of their place of work, and needs to maintain good relations between their boss and their...

We have developed a new concept representation method named Manga Card Sort to achieve learning process model in Manga Case Method. We have experimented to confirm the effectiveness of Manga Card Sort with Manga Cases dealing with business and with two types of subjects who have different degrees of achievement in business. The result shows that Ma...

This paper presents a real time simulator using workers' position data to support a manager's decision making in cellular manufacturing system. The real time simulator is a simulation using the data collected in real time, which is effective in reduce prediction error and support quick decision making. Because of a high analytical cost in the conve...

This chapter introduces our trial of MANGA-case training to foster the ability to integrate one’s knowledge, experience, and available information for executing an appropriate action. As long as service businesses are faced with clients, there is no one right answer for what is the best service without regarding individual situations. Moreover, wit...

For many web services, recommendation system plays a very important role. In most situations, those recommendations are personalized to individual users. However in some services, like e-learning services, not all activities may be designed for personal usage, but rather to be conducted in a group. Group recommendation has been a very challenging p...

Agent-based simulation models with large experiments for a precise and robust result over a vast parameter space are becoming a common practice, where enormous runs intrinsically require highly intensive computational resources. This paper proposes a grid based simulation environment, named Social Macro Scope (SOMAS) to support parallel exploration...

This study proposes a simulation model of a new type of infectious disease based on smallpox, Ebola haemorrhagic fever and a health policy Game. SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model has been widely used to analyse infectious diseases such as influenza, smallpox, bioterrorism, to name a few. On the other hand, Agent-based model or Individual...

We are developing a learning course with MANGA-Case method teaching material to acquire basic knowledge on experiments and their instruction tactics for elementary teacher candidates. The target experiment is Evaluating a MANGA-Case Method Teaching Material for the Experimental Skills and Understanding of the Experiment Method. The content is elect...

This paper describes a novel method to apply the persona design method in marketingscience to the human resource management domain. Using the technique, employees in abusiness firm can identify and rank the images of the business skills the ideal leaders of an ITorientedorganization. To clarify the differences in recognition, we apply the persona t...

To develop and put in place effective training methods in business, discovering how experts and novices differ is important. However, it is difficult to measure these differences in an actual work environment. In this study, that problem is resolved by using a manga case, in which business scenarios are illustrated in a distinctive Japanese comic b...

In the area of recommender systems, user-based collaborative filtering algorithm has been extensively studied and discussed. In the traditional approach of this method, a target user's preference for an item is predicted by the integrated preference of the user's neighbors for the item, ignoring the structure of these neighbors. That is, these neig...

This paper proposes a Brownian agent model for simulating and analyzing changes in a nation's product space structure. A measurement of proximity has been employed to quantify a relationship between two products and proved to be useful in product space analysis. This study employs such proximity measurement, and estimates a continued structure tran...

Neighborhood-based collaborative Altering (CF) algorithms have been extensively studied and discussed. In the traditional way of these methods, user-based CF predicts a target user’s preference for an item based on the integrated preference of the user’s neighbors for the item, and item-based CF is based on the integrated preference of the user’s p...

We present a method to develop agent-based models based on the service system abstraction and the ISPAR model, to study market systems in the light of Service-Dominant logic. Service-Dominant logic is a mindset that acts as a lens, through which we can see the world in a different way. More precisely, it intends to bring new insights into the marke...

We propose an improved method for employees to identify and rank images of desirable middle managers at an organization. In many companies, despite many discussions of leader images, it is difficult to find differences between the images of each individual. So far, the literature on leaders has not answered these questions. Here we apply the person...

We propose a novel method of through which employees can identify and rank the images of the ideal leaders of an organization. In many companies, despite discussion of the images of leaders, it is difficult to hide differences in how different individuals recognize those images. Past research on leaders has not answered these questions. To clarify...

http://library.iated.org/view/UCHIDA2014PER

This study investigates a kind of guessing game, “do-it-yourself lottery” (DIY-L), with two types of players, adaptive learning and quasi fictitious play, by agent-based computational economics approach. DIY-L is a multi-player and multi-strategy game with a unique but skew-symmetric mixed strategy equilibrium. Here computational experiments are pu...

In this research, a teaching simulation model is built where the understanding status, knowledge structure, and collaborative effect of each learner are integrated by using a doubly structural network model. The purpose of the model is to analyse the actual conditions of understanding of learners regarding instructions given in classrooms. The infl...

Collaborative filtering recommendation algorithms are the most popular approaches in the area of recommender systems and have been extensively discussed by researchers. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of items influence received from neighborhood and the corresponding iterative preference prediction based on the influence. Specifically spea...

In the area of intelligent systems, research about recommender systems is a critical topic and has been applied in many fields. In this paper, we focus on TV program recommender systems. We give an overview of literature research about TV program recommender systems and propose a smart and social TV program recommender framework for Smart TV, which...

This paper proposes a revised customer behavioral model for Agent-Based In-Store Simulator (ABISS). ABISS is able to carry out a virtual experiment of customers' purchasing and walking behavior in the supermarket. To enhance the performance of ABISS, however, we must observe real customer behaviors and determine their behavioral parameters. In this...

In this paper, we propose an augmented reality (AR) system with a laser projection device as a hands-on display at a science museum. The AR system provides virtual information, which learners can control for a visual explanation about an exhibited item. Learners develop their knowledge and understanding through the display without any modification...

A learning classifier system (LCS) is a model of an intelligent agent interacting with an environment. Many complex yet powerful LCS models exist today. However, they are designed with a single agent approach in mind. LCS applications in multi-agent environment have been problematic. Their complexity limits the agents' cooperation and coordination...

Both Gaming Simulation and Case Method are traditional and powerful tools to carry out educational courses in a business school. However, there have been few studies to integrate Gaming and Case methodologies. This paper presents a new practical approach for this purpose. At Graduate School of Systems Management, Tsukuba University, we have ten yea...

This paper reports on a research project we have been conducting for two years since 2003, which aims at “integrating Case Method and Business Gaming.” This research proposes a new gaming structure model. In this model, we structuralize the decision-making area of corporate managers and build a framework to implement it as a business game. The mode...

This paper proposes a method to measure the effect of learning by case method. The method has the following unique features: 1) a set of alternative characters is prepared, 2) the learner’s change of the role understanding is detected by evaluating each alternative character, 3) the analysis method is designed with an orthogonal array technique in...

This paper presents an agent-based simulation model to analyze performance of organization with heterogeneous members. A hierarchical landscapes model with organizational and personal landscapes is proposed and it puts difference of skills and values into difference of personal landscapes. The use of this model shows that an organization needs to h...

We propose a novel method to identify desirable leader images in each situation. Leader's characteristics have been researched. However, many researchers could not find unique his/her characteristics. Therefore, desirable characteristics are different in each situation which he/her meets. In order to capture the desirable characters in each situati...

This chapter presents an agent-based simulation (ABS) model to analyze the performance of an organization with heterogeneous members. We use a hierarchical landscape model with organizational and personal landscapes and put the difference of skills and values into difference of personal landscapes. Using the model, we show that an organization of h...

Despite its extensive use in emerging Service Science research, value co-creation in complex service systems still remains highly conceptual and ambiguous. Therefore, there exists a need of tools and techniques to model complex service systems making the process of value co-creation operational. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation has been recogniz...

Service management at commodity goods retailers requires various kinds of strategic knowledge. This paper focuses on the (dis)advantages of mileage point and discount services. To uncover the characteristics of the two strategies, we are developing an agent-based simulator to analyze the behaviors of competing retailing stores and their customers....

A learning classifier system has been found to be a feasible method for multi-agent systems. It provides the architecture necessary for communication and cooperation among agents. Although the learning classifier system has been proven capable of adapting to a changing environment, there has not been much research focusing on its performance when t...

We propose a novel method: “Persona-Conjoint Method” (PCM), which measures the effect of learning in complex business situations. The procedure of PCM is summarized as follows: 1) A persona-set is prepared with an orthogonal array often used in marketing conjoint analysis; 2) The relation between personae’ attributes and learning topics is observed...

Measuring Learners’ Awareness using Persona strategy and Conjoint design.

The effect of an outage caused by a disaster is serious to the society, because the power distribution line is a common basic infrastructure for life support. And the time estimation of emergency restoration process of power distribution line after a disaster is an emerging problem for the safety and security of the society. But the time estimation...

Research Problem: Studies identify peer review as an effective instructional method to improve student writing. Some teachers, however, avoid peer review, perhaps due to the workload required for assessing and correcting peer reviews. Previous studies have not proposed any method to reduce teacher workload by using an objective means to analyze the...

The condition of cooperation in social conflicts of interest has been an interesting topic. On the one hand people usually desire to make their own profit. On the other hand, they mutually cooperate. This fact has motivated many researchers. Some solutions for this question have been proposed, and particular studies indicate that the diversity in d...

It is important for people in technical fields to be familiar with sustainability issues because public awareness of environmental and social concerns related to technologies has been growing. Also in pharmacy education, a deep understanding of sustainability issues is required so that the future pharmacists will make a positive impact on the envir...

This research analyzes the influence of indices which are employed in the asset management business on financial markets through agent-based simulation. In this analysis, we focus on a fundamental index, which has been proposed as a new benchmark for investments in place of price indices, which are currently employed in practical business affairs....

Recently, the area of study of spatial game continuously has extended, and researchers have especially presented a lot of works of coevolutionary mechanism. We have recognized coevolutionary mechanism as one of the factors for the promotion of cooperation like five rules by Nowak. However, those studies still deal with the optimal response (best de...

We are conducting a research and development project on agent technologies to enrich “Field Forces” in steel industries under the support of the Iron and Steel Institute of Japan. The objective of the project is to explore the applicability of recent software agent technologies to practical task domains performed by both human experts and plant sys...

This paper presents a new agent based model for unifying organizational deviation and Kaizen activities. Deviation and Kaizen are both activities in business firms to break standards in operations. In the model, we have assumed that the former and the latter are only different in terms of external utilities, but both are agents' behavioral rules. U...

The bid-rigging on public works projects has recently become social problem in Japan. We can regard this issue as a framework of spatial game through simplifying the strategy of tendering. The main purpose of this study is to represent the tendering with multiple bidders as repeatedly playing games only with the opponents of relationships. We can r...

This paper describes an agent-based simulation model to analyze migration behaviors of individual in several political regions. The model was originally discussed by Tiebout in 1956 as “Voting with Feet,” however, the validity of the model has not been examined very carefully. In the proposed agent simulation model, plural political decisions in ea...

This research analyzes the validity of fundamental indexing in financial markets. As a result of intensive experiments in the market, we made the following findings: (1) fundamental indexing works as effectively as price indexing in the market when market prices reflect fundamental values; (2) fundamental indexing contributes to market efficiency.