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a Istanbul Topkapı University, Istanbul, Turkey.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: sitkiselimdolanay@topkapi.edu.tr;
Artificial Intelligence, Smart Robots,
Types of Artificial Intelligence and a
New Economic Order
Sıtkı Selim Dolanay a*
DOI:
ABSTRACT
In the process of transition from agricultural society to industrial society, which
started with the Industrial Revolution in England, the mechanization process
experienced five different stages and in the last stage, with the development of
computers, automation in production was achieved. While developments in a
certain region or country of the world spread to other parts of the world with
technological spread, technological revolutions also spread and paradigm
changes occurred. With the development of information processing technologies,
productivity has started to increase with the use of automation and robot
technology in production. This process, which continued until the 2010s, is
thought to lead to the formation of smart factories that can produce under the
dominance of robots, after the new point reached in artificial intelligence and
robot technology, and this development will further increase productivity in
production. Intelligent robots working in the internet of things system will be able
to work with greater power and longer periods than humans, and smart factories
that are almost never shut down will emerge. In the transformation in this
process, which is also called robonomics, changes in the theory of economy may
occur and a new economic order may emerge. The question of why behind-the-
scenes countries, such as Turkey, could not catch up with the leading ones, is
another matter of discussion. However, in such periods of technological
paradigm change, an opportunity arises for lagging countries for their economic
development. On the other hand, we can say that Turkey will either be able to
catch up with the technological level of developed countries by taking advantage
of the opportunity, by means of a step-by-step technological development, or it
will continue to stay among the countries that lag behind by missing the
opportunity.
Keywords: Technological development; incremental technological development;
radical technological development; smart robots; robonomics; smart
factories; technological unemployment; universal basic income.
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1. INTRODUCTİON
Everyone agrees that it is necessary to have a basis for assessing and
estimating the impact of technical change on society in general or on any
particular aspect of human activity. New technologies, on the other hand, are
raining down on us or surprising us like an earthquake, and there is little we can
do as a society to dominate them or guide them for the common good. What we
will discuss here is that, despite the undeniable diversity of technologies, the
unpredictable nature of invention, and the uncertain and risky nature of business
innovation, there is an identifiable logic behind major trends in technical change
[1-3].
The invention of a new product or process takes place in what might be termed
techno-scientific, and can stay there forever. In contrast, an innovation is an
economic fact. The first commercial introduction of an innovation transfers it from
the techno-economic field to the future market as an isolated event that is
decided to open up if successful. In case of failure, it can disappear for a long
time or forever. In the event of success, it may still remain an isolated fact or
become economically important, depending on its degree of relevance, its impact
on competitors, or its impact in other areas [1,2]. Yet it is the process of mass
adoption that has the most far-reaching social consequences. Widespread
diffusion is what turns what was once an invention into a truly socio-economic
phenomenon. Therefore, inventions can occur at any time, of different
importance, and in varying rhythms. Not all of these turn into innovations, and not
all innovations are widely disseminated. In fact, the world of the technically
possible is always much larger than the world of the economically profitable,
which is socially acceptable. Therefore, our focus should be on innovation
diffusion [1-3].
2. INCREMENTAL AND RADİCAL INNOVATİONS
Incremental innovations are successive improvements over existing products and
processes. From an economic point of view, such change is collectively behind
the overall rate of productivity growth. Frequent increases in technical efficiency,
productivity, and precision in processes, regular changes in products to achieve
better quality, reduce costs, or expand their range of uses are characteristic
features of the evolutionary dynamics of each technology. Called the “natural
trajectory” by Nelson and Winter [4] and the “technological paradigm” by Dosi,
the logic guiding this evolution is analyzable and makes the course of gradual
change relatively predictable. According to the fundamental and fundamental
economic principles given technologically, for example, those microprocessors
will be smaller, more powerful, work faster, etc. It is possible to predict with
reasonable certainty. It is natural to expect technological evolution to lead to
successive developments towards petroleum derivatives. In process industries, it
was easy to expect a trend towards achieving these economies of scale across
all industries after the discovery of Chilton’s Law, which said that doubling plant
capacity only increases the cost of investment by two-thirds. Therefore, the vast
3
majority of innovations occur in a continuous stream of incremental changes
along expected directions [1-3].
A radical innovation, on the contrary, is the introduction of a truly new product or
process [5]. Because of the independent nature of incremental change
trajectories, it is practically impossible for a radical innovation to emerge from
efforts to improve an existing technology. Nylon cannot result from successive
improvements made in rayon plants, and nuclear power cannot be developed
through a series of innovations in fossil fuel power plants. A radical innovation, by
definition, is an outlet that can start a new technological route. While radical
innovations are more willingly adopted when the predetermined trajectory
approaches extinction, they can be introduced at any time, shortening the life
cycle of the products or processes they replace. There are some radical
innovations that gave birth to a whole new industry. Television, for example,
brought not only a manufacturing industry, but also programming and
broadcasting services, which expanded the advertising industry. In this sense,
important radical innovations are at the center of the forces behind economic
growth and structural change [1-3].
3. THE BİRTH, DEVELOPMENT, AND RECESSİON PHASE OF A
TECHNOLOGY
When we consider the evolution of a technology from market entry to maturity, in
the product and its production process in its incipient, relatively primitive stage,
there is a lot of trial purchase on the market and among the first users. Gradually
the product consolidates a position in the market and the main trends of its
trajectory are determined. From then on, there is a kind of departure for a period
of incremental improvements in quality, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and other
variables that eventually meet limits. At this point, the technology reaches
maturity. When it reaches maturity, it has lost its dynamism and strength.
Profitability begins to decline as costs rise. Depending on the product type, this
cycle can take months, years, or decades; It can cover a single firm, tens of
firms, or thousands of firms. As technology approaches maturity, a jolt often
leaves only a few manufacturers behind. There is also a high probability that the
product will be replaced at maturity or that the technology will be sold to weaker
manufacturers with lower factors (as in the spread of mature industries to the
Third World in the late 1960s and late 1970s) [1-3].
4. RADİCAL INNOVATİONS CREATE PATHS FOR
TECHNOLOGİCAL SYSTEMS
Freeman et al. [5] defined technological systems as constellations of innovations
that are technically and economically interrelated and that affect various
branches of production. Rosenberg [6] has described how some innovations
trigger the appearance of others. For example, breakthroughs in increasing the
speed of operation of machine tools have spurred innovative efforts in cutting
alloys. Relying on higher temperatures and speeds and, in general, increasing
trajectories in a product, process, or industry branch tends to encounter
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bottlenecks that become incentives for innovations—even radical ones—in other
industries. Nelson and Winter [4] described generic technologies encompassing
a natural evolutionary trajectory, a series of interconnected radical innovations [1-
3].
In petrochemical technology, for example, several different but interrelated
systems can be identified: synthetic fibers transforming the textile and apparel
industries. Creating brand new lines of equipment for extrusion, molding and
cutting with versatility and transforming the packaging industry as well, it is
plastics that open up a wide universe of innovation in the packaging industry
[1,2].
From the point of view of a technological system, then, there is a logic that unites
successive radical innovations on a common natural trajectory. Once this logic is
established, it is possible to reveal features in the system, each of which appears
to be a radical innovation when considered separately, but which, when included
in the system, suggests that there will be an incremental succession of new
products and processes [1-3].
Starting with the vacuum cleaner and washing machine, the line of consumer
durables made of metal or plastic with electric motors passes through food
processors and freezers, then approaches extinction with the electric can opener
and electric carving knife and is considered a gradual change. In the field of
products, this is an ordinary example of an exemplary logic. The succession of
plastic materials with the most diverse properties, based on the same principles
of organic chemistry, is an example in the field of intermediates, which has
tremendous impact in generating innovations in user industries. With the
introduction of growing petroleum-based agricultural implements, combined with
multiple petrochemical innovations in fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides,
machines are an example of the consistent evolution in the logic of a productive
system. The pervasive impact of a new technological system derives from the
multiple characters and broad adaptability of contributing innovations. Each
technology system brings together technical innovations in inputs, products, and
processes, organizational and managerial innovations. Moreover, they can cause
significant social, institutional, and even political changes. The technological
constellation of the “Green Revolution” gave rise to single-crop agriculture in
large lands and caused changes in the organization of production and distribution
as well as in the ownership structure. The automobile assembly line, the internal
combustion engine, networks of parts suppliers, distributors and service stations,
suburban living and commercial centers have been just a few of the elements of
the technical, economic, and social cluster that is gradually built around the inner
periphery [1,2].
Yet technology systems, similar to individual technologies, eventually exhaust
their potential for further growth and development. Over a long period of time, a
technological system offers numerous and growing opportunities for innovation
and investment in complementary products, services, or materials. But when the
system reaches maturity, where it loses its technological and market dynamism,
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it threatens the growth and profits of most of the firms involved and therefore
encourages the search for radical new products that will serve as the core of
other new technology systems [1-3].
After a radical technological innovation has emerged, new business areas are
opened in the economic boom period, which is followed by a recession and
adaptation in the first place, and we can say that this is due to the high
performance of the innovation, that is, the technological transformation also
transforms the economy. Just like the transition from propeller aircraft technology
to jet engine aircraft technology. In this case, as shown in the graphs consisting
of performance and time axes, as the radical innovation gets old, if incremental
innovations are made, the performance of the innovation enters a stagnation
period and the rising curve becomes horizontal. This curve, also called the S
curve, can be drawn for all radical innovations. However, many successive S-
curves can be drawn for innovations in information technology [7,2,3].
5. TECHNOLOGİCAL TRANSFORMATİONS THE WORLD HAS
EXPERİENCED
Perez [8,9] divides the technological transformations of the world into five
phases. According to Perez, each phase was formed by the emergence of one or
more radical technological innovations. The first phase started with the
mechanization of the cotton textile industry with the steam engine during the First
Industrial Revolution in England. At this stage, transportation was done through
the development of water channels and shipping. In the second phase, railway
transportation started to develop from 1829, and the development of iron and
coal use played a strategic role in the development of railways. In the third
phase, the use of steel has increased since 1875, the use of steel in steam
engines has developed, the use of steel in ships has begun, and there have been
developments in the fields of chemistry, civil engineering, and electronics. In the
fourth phase, starting from 1908 in the USA, the use of oil in automobiles began
to develop, the mass production system emerged and spread to Europe. In the
fifth phase, the information revolution has emerged since 1971, and the
telecommunication field has developed by means of computer hardware and
software based on cheap microelectronics [2,3].
6. FOURTH INDUSTRİAL REVOLUTİON (INDUSTRY 4.0)
Jeremy Rifkin [10] was the first to use the name of the Third Industrial
Revolution, which started with the emergence of automation in production as a
result of the development in computer technology in the 1970s. Industry or
Industry 4.0 refers to a process we are in today. Therefore, it is not a completed
period yet and theories about its future are emphasized. Industry 4.0 in general:
robots take over production, production with 3D printers, the development of
artificial intelligence, big data studies, and many other innovations
(https://www.muhendisbeyinler.net/4-sanayi-devrimi-nedir/) [11,3].
For the theoretical beginning of Industry 4.0, studies were carried out on the
concept that Kagermann et al. [12] put forward in his study in 2011, and the
6
principles of the Industry 4.0 process were established based on the concept. He
states that the industrial revolution includes not only the development in
automation, but also intelligent observation and decision-making processes
[13,11, 14-17, 2].
The characteristics of these changes, also known as “Internet of Things”,
“Internet of Everything”, or “Industrial Internet”, which will help to distinguish them
from the first three industrial revolutions, and can be listed as follows [13,2,3].
7. CYBER-PHYSİCAL SYSTEMS (CPSs)
Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) connect the physical world with the virtual
computing world with the help of sensors and actuators. CPSs, which consist of
different constituent components, create global behaviors in cooperation. These
components include software systems, communication technologies,
sensors/actuators, often including embedded technologies, to interact with the
real world. Cyber-Physical Systems that unite these two worlds consist of two
important elements: Network formed by objects and systems that communicate
with each other over the internet and with a designated internet address. It is a
virtual environment that emerges by simulating real-world objects and behaviors
in a computer environment. Cyber-Physical Systems, which create a very wide
communication network together with the “Internet of Things” and thus tend to
remove the border between real and virtual worlds, constitute one of the
underlying forces of Industry 4.0 (http://www.endustri40.com/siber-fiziksel-
sistemler/) [2,3].
Industry 4.0-based production processes are based on systems connecting to
different networks through various interfaces and communicating with different
services. Industry 4.0 reflects the communication between the Cyber-Physical
Worlds to machines, just as we access various contents with the internet
connection on smart phones and communicate with other smart phones around
us via different platforms. The most obvious example of this is “Smart Factories”.
Automation processes in Smart Factories mean that devices and machines
communicate with each other and determine and regulate production processes
within themselves. For example, in case of a resource shortage at any stage of
production, the necessary resource order is automatically placed, faults can be
detected and fixed instantly and on-site, so that the system can be operated at
full capacity and without any problems (http://www.endustri40.com/siber-fiziksel-
sistemler/) [2,3].
These systems connect the real physical world with the virtual computing world
through sensors. Systems that create a wide communication network and thus
eliminate the boundaries between the real and virtual worlds are also one of the
most fundamental driving forces of Industry 4.0 (http://www.endustri40.com/siber-
fizikselsistemler/)[11,2,3].
Thanks to cyber-physical systems, future facilities will have newly created
conditions and interfaces, and it will be possible to be more flexible in controlling
7
these interfaces simultaneously and updating the hardware in production
processes with the latest innovations. In this way, it will take less time to adapt all
relevant changes to the production processes, and it will be possible to minimize
potential problems and disruptions. All of these will naturally increase the level of
productivity [11,2,3].
Cyber-Physical Systems play an essential role not only in production but also in
many places related to the production process. Some of them can be listed as
(http://www.endustri40.com/siber-fiziksel-sistemler/)[2,3]:
(a) Physical and organizational business processes are controlled by a
monitor,
(b) It involves significant user-participation and interaction,
(c) Provides adaptation and development to reactive changes in the
environment with real-time structuring, distribution, or assignment,
(d) Controlling and optimizing its own performance with a constant monitor,
(e) Requires a high degree of reliability,
(f) It requires the integration of different technical disciplines and different
application areas,
(g) Local, regional, national, and global autonomy requires hierarchical
decision systems with a high degree of autonomy
(http://www.endustri40.com/siber-fiziksel-sistemler/) [2,3].
It can also make significant differences in R&D, design, and marketing
processes. For example, before a factory is physically established, it can be
established through simulation and all necessary feasibility studies can be done
through this simulation. In short, Cyber-Physical Systems, and thus Industry 4.0,
promise a future in terms of producing solutions that we cannot even imagine
today, improving resource use, and increasing efficiency
(http://www.endustri40.com/siber-fiziksel-sistemler/) [2,3].
8. BİG DATA
Today, it is possible to see the elements of the information society in all areas of
life. Most people now have a smartphone in their pocket, most people have a
computer at home, and all companies have information technology management
units in their back offices. But the information itself is not so visible. However,
only half a century after computers entered human life, the amount of information
has begun to be collected in a way that acquires a meaningful and special
quality. Today, not only the amount of information has increased, but also the
speed of access to information has increased. Quantitative change brought with
it qualitative change. The collection of data to form a meaningful whole first took
place in the fields of astronomy and genetics. The concept of big data was first
used in these fields, and then this concept started to be used for every field. Big
data has started to show itself in all areas of our lives. For example, in the
internet search engine Google, we encounter big data in every field, from the
diagnosis and treatment of diseases to the field of shopping over the Internet. Big
data is the form of all data collected from different sources such as social media
8
shares, blogs, blogs, photos, videos, log files, converted into a meaningful and
workable form. As usual, it is the unstructured data stack, which is not used
much until recently, except for the structured data kept in relational databases.
According to the widespread IT belief that has now been demolished,
unstructured data were worthless, but big data showed us something, which is
that enormously important, usable, useful information emerged from the
phenomenon called information dump today, that is, the only system that caused
treasure to come out of the garbage dump. Big data consists of a large amount of
information such as web server logs, Internet statistics, social media posts,
blogs, microblogs, information from climate sensors and similar sensors, call logs
obtained from GSM operators. Big data, when interpreted with the right analysis
methods, can enable companies to take their strategic decisions correctly,
manage their risks better, and make innovations. Most of the companies still
continue to make decisions based on the data they have obtained through
conventional data warehouse and data mining methods. However, dynamically
predicting consumer trends requires analyzing big data and acting according to
these analyses (https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%BCy%C3%BCk_veri)[2,3].
It is a term that includes many subjects such as the creation, storage, flow, and
analysis of this big data, which is difficult to process with traditional database
tools and algorithms. As the data are too large for classical databases to handle,
the growth rate of data exceeds a computer or a data storage unit. With 2012
figures, 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are produced daily in the world. All works
such as processing and transferring big data of this scale are called Big Data.
Today’s databases are not enough to keep the data growing on this scale. While
relational databases can hold data at gigabyte level, they can store data at
petabyte level with big data. However, big data are only suitable for batch
processing. Advanced databases like Transactions lack critical features. Since
databases can perform operations such as reading, writing, updating, etc., these
transactions are considered atomic and with various locking mechanisms, the
data are prevented from becoming inconsistent by changing it by more than one
transaction. It should be used in cases where big data are written once and read
many times. Because data are processed in parallel in more than one place, data
of this size are produced in many areas from RFID sensors to social media and
hospitals. Big Data emerges as a need in many areas where data processing is
carried out, especially the analysis of DNA sequences, data from weather
sensors (https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%BCy%C3%BCk_veri) [2,3].
It is important to use innovative data systems, as there will be much more data
movement that needs to be processed and recorded in the production facilities of
the future shaped by Industry 4.0. All data flowing from different sources such as
posts, blogs, photos and videos on the internet, on various social media sites, is
transformed into a meaningful and workable form. Big Data consists of a huge
amount of data such as internet statistics, social media posts, blogs and
information from similar sensors (https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%
BCy%C3%BCk_veri) [11,2].
If these data can be analyzed and interpreted correctly by businesses; it enables
them to make important strategic decisions in the right way, to keep the risk at a
9
minimum level and to manage them better, and thus to work with high efficiency
(http://www.mckinsey.com/businessfunctions/operations/our-insights/how-big-
atacan-improve-manufacturing) [11,2,3].
9. DİGİTAL INFORMATİON EXCHANGE
One of the fundamental philosophies of Industry 4.0 is to connect the virtual and
real worlds. Thanks to the uninterrupted exchange of information between
contents, equipment, components, systems, and people via the internet, final
products, machines, contents, and every step in production will have digital
footprints. In this way, it is thought that production can be made faster, more
flexible, with low risk, and with high efficiency. Accordingly, smart factories will
automatically adapt to current conditions and even organize their production
planning according to order demands (Taghizadeh & Keser, 2015) [11,2,3].
10. ARTİFİCİAL INTELLİGENCE (AI)
The term Artificial Intelligence was coined by John McCarthy in 1958. He defined
it as “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines” [18]. Artificial
Intelligence is the branch of computer science that deals with the study and
design of intelligent agents that sense their environment and take actions that
maximize its environment. The way AI succeeds can be described as: “The
ability to keep two different ideas in mind at the same time and still function”. But
AI must include learning from past experience, reasoning for decision making,
inference, and swiftness. In addition, they should be able to make decisions by
making inferences according to priorities and cope with complexity and
uncertainty. Machines programmed to perform tasks that require intelligence
when performed by humans are said to have artificial intelligence. The scientific
purpose of AI is to create an intelligence that can infer or reason within the
machine by creating computer programs that exhibit intelligent behavior using
symbols. AI will not be time-independent when defined. Considering the time, he
can form his judgment about any system [19, 20,2,3].
Artificial intelligence is accomplished by examining how the human brain thinks
and how people learn, make decisions, and work while trying to solve a problem,
and then using the results of that work as the basis for developing intelligent
software and systems [21,2,3].
11. INTELLİGENT ROBOTS
Robots that are expected to eliminate human-induced errors are widely used in
production. Therefore, robot technologies are promising in terms of increasing
the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, namely Industry 4.0. For example,
in the future, smart robots in smart factories will be able to manage production by
communicating with each other, by division of labor, analyzing, and reacting to
changes. These robots distinguish the materials moving on the conventional
production line, thanks to sensor technologies, and know which processes they
10
need to be subjected to at which stage. In this way, it is possible to process each
different product in a single production line without any errors [11,2,3].
12. DİGİTAL INDUSTRİALİZATİON
With Industry 4.0, all of the production processes will be planned in the first place
before mass production and will be provided through a virtual production program
plan. All steps will first be verified virtually, then physical production will be
completed [11,2,3].
Industry 4.0 reveals the smart production economy that will have a say in the
future with digital change factors. For businesses aiming to have a say in
international competition, intelligent robots will play an indispensable role in this
new order, artificial intelligence systems that can be used in marketing and
management stages, R&D (Research and Development) units, and internet-
based systems that will carry out the information flow between all these and the
physical world, these systems will ensure that these systems work in harmony.
They need to support and develop their bodies with working teams. Advances in
technology have been the main driving force of industrial revolutions since their
inception. In the 18th century, steam-powered machines started to be included in
the production processes, at the beginning of the 20th century, mass production
with electrical energy was born and productivity increased. After the 1970s,
automation systems began to spread with the use of information technologies in
the industry. With the Fourth Industrial Revolution, four main currents led to great
changes in business life and laid the foundation of this revolution. These currents
can be explained as follows (http://www.otomasyondergisi.com.tr/arsiv/yazi/97-
turkiyenin-kuresel-rekabetciligi-icin-birgereklilik-olaraksanayi-40) [11,2,3]:
Regional flows: Increase in social interaction and trade between countries
Economic flows: Rising new strong economies and increasing
globalization with financial resource flows
Technological trends: Increasing connectivity and development of platform
technologies
Metastreams: Increasing concerns about scarce resources,
environment and safety
(http://www.otomasyondergisi.com.tr/arsiv/yazi/97-turkiyenin-kuresel-
rekabetciligi-icin-birgereklilik-olaraksanayi-40) [11,23].
These 4 entities have created new value chains by forming the basis of
processes where sensors, information technologies, and production equipment
are increasingly interconnected. These systems, known as cyberphysical
systems, provide information and data exchange between each other thanks to
internet integration, and analyze data in order to predict possible errors, and
quickly adapt to updated conditions
(http://www.gazeteekonomi.com/ekonomi/sanayi-40-konferansinda-engelse-
gonderme-h153237.html) [11,2,3].
Although there are still many organizations using unconnected systems today,
connectivity is increasing day by day and it has started to take an important place
11
in the industry. Today, it is no longer possible to think of the physical world and
the virtual world separately from each other. While the virtual world is built on the
real world, the boundaries of physical life are expanded by the virtual world.
Cyber-physical systems that provide the connection and information exchange
between these two worlds constitute one of the most fundamental forces of
Industry 4.0. Today, advanced technology information systems are located at the
center of production processes. Machines equipped with cyber physical systems
and technologies will have new interfaces. In order to be faster and more flexible
in controlling them simultaneously and making necessary updates, the
equipment in the value chain needs to be supported with new innovations and
adapted to cyber-physical systems [11,2,3].
The basis of Industry 4.0 is to enable production processes and systems to
connect with various networks through different interfaces and communicate with
various services. An example of this is that we can access the content we want
with the internet connection on our smart phones, and we can communicate with
other smart phones around us over various networks. When examined in the
context of industry, it can be seen that Industry
4.0 carries the connections between cyber-physical worlds to machines. From
this point of view, “Smart Factories” can be given as an example. Automation in
Smart Factories means that equipments communicate with each other and
determine their functions among themselves and plan them. For example, if there
is a shortage of raw materials during production, the necessary order can be
placed automatically, and in case of any malfunction, it can be detected
immediately and quickly fixed. Cyber physical systems can also make effective
differences in R&D and marketing departments. Before any new department is
physically established, it is simulated and feasibility studies can be carried out
thanks to these systems. In summary, Industry 4.0 and cyber-physical systems
create a future where faster and more innovative solutions are produced and
more efficient [11,2,3].
Technology with rapid developments has changed its understanding of
production, design, and service within the framework of the innovations it brings.
Although a significant number of manufacturers have started to use automation
systems and radio frequency systems (RFID), many of their processes have
been transformed into “intelligent” processes, but the technology has not yet
reached the level that fully meets the expectations. The main goal of cyber
physical systems is to use “intelligent monitoring” and “intelligent control”
processes [11,2,3].
13. ARTİFİCİAL INTELLİGENCE, INTELLİGENT ROBOTS, AND
ROBONOMİCS
Since the invention of computers or machines, their ability to perform various
tasks has continued to increase exponentially. Humans have developed the
power of computer systems in terms of expanding various fields of work,
increasing their speed, and decreasing their size with time. A branch of
12
Computer Science called Artificial Intelligence seeks to create computers or
machines as intelligent as humans [21,2,3].
Artificial Intelligence is a way of making a computer, computer-controlled robot,
or software think intelligently the way intelligent people think. AI is accomplished
by examining how the human brain thinks and how people learn, decide, and
work while trying to solve a problem, and then using the results of that work as a
basis for developing intelligent software and systems. While harnessing the
power of computer systems, human curiosity asks, “Can a machine think and act
like humans?” it makes you wonder [21,2,3].
Thus, the development of artificial intelligence began with the intention of
creating intelligence in machines similar to what we find high and value in
humans. It is about creating expert systems that exhibit intelligent behaviors,
learn, show, and explain what they have learned, and give advice to their users
[21,2,3].
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is changing the global economic landscape.
Following the advancement in robotics, artificial intelligence, and automation
technologies (RAIA), companies from various economic sectors are starting to
adopt RAIA to reduce costs, generate additional revenues, ensure consistent
product quality, streamline operations, expand production/service capacity, and
increase company competitiveness. This applies not only to manufacturing
companies where industrial robots have been used for decades, but also to
warehousing and logistics, agriculture, education, financial trade, transportation,
journalism, tourism and hospitality, and other industries. Search results in search
engines (e.g. Google), social media website (e.g. Facebook) news feed or
product recommendations from online retailers (e.g. Amazon) are based on
artificial intelligence. Companies have started using chatbots to communicate
with their online customers [22,2].
The trend to use RAIA in the production of goods and services will continue to
accelerate in the future until society reaches a point where all (or an
overwhelming part) of goods and services are produced by RAIA with limited
human participation. Such an economic system, robots, artificial intelligence, and
(service) automation, is called “robonomics” [23,22,2,3].
In the mass introduction of RAIA, its most prominent aspect is that the
disappearance of most of the jobs currently available will lead to profound
economic, social, and political changes. For example, Frey and Osborne [24]
evaluated the possibility of computerization for 702 detailed occupations in the
USA and concluded that 47% of the total jobs in the country are at risk of being
replaced by artificial intelligence. Researchers’ attitudes towards RAIA are to
save people from manual labor and the aim was to identify that new job
opportunities would be created to protect people from becoming impoverished
and outdated in a fully robotized society. While the economic, social, and political
changes caused by robotic technology are relatively well explained in the
13
academic literature, the economic principles of robotomy seem to be neglected
[22,2,3].
14. TWO TYPES OF ARTİFİCİAL INTELLİGENCE
Narrow artificial intelligence is a product, service or business process that is used
for a specific task in the narrow scope of a product, and it is business-oriented.
This is the type of artificial intelligence that exists today (such as driving a car,
examining x-ray images, or tracking corruption in financial transactions). is
carried out entirely by task-specific narrow artificial intelligence [25].
General artificial intelligence (Strong AI, AGI), also known as "strong artificial
intelligence", means that the machine reaches human general intelligence. There
is no artificial intelligence that has been produced at this level yet, experts are of
the opinion that this will not be possible in the near future. Another and most
powerful type of artificial intelligence, "Super Artificial Intelligence", is essentially
the release of the technical genie in the bottle. The situation called Singularity,
which is frequently pronounced by the world's leading futurists, will become
possible with super artificial intelligence. In this case, artificial intelligence will be
above and beyond human intelligence. Although the concept of singularity is
mostly associated with futurist Ray Kurzweil, it was first used by John Von
Neumann in the 1950s. Kurzweil, on the other hand, published his book The
Singularity Near: When Humans Move Beyond Biology in 2005 and said that the
first truly intelligent machine will be built in the late 2020s, while the singularity
will occur around 2045 [25].
The first tangible expression of the concept of the technological singularity is
often attributed to mathematician and science fiction writer Vernor Vinge. In her
article titled "As the technological singularity approaches: how to survive in the
posthuman age," first presented at the NASA conference in 1993, Vinge said, "In
thirty years, we will have enough technology to create superhuman intelligence.
Shortly after this, the age of man will end.” Vinge was vague about the
consequences of this immense transcendence: It could be the end of all our
problems, it could be the destruction of the species, but it was bound to happen
no matter what. (…) There was no way to prevent the singularity because it was
an inevitable consequence of our inherent competitiveness and technological
possibilities [25].
When artificial intelligence can exceed the narrow limits of artificial intelligence
that can be shown as an example, it is seen that two opposite approaches have
been put forward regarding the results of this. According to the theory, which also
comes to the fore in science fiction cinema, "artificial intelligence will be the last
invention of humanity." Such a situation, which is described as the end of
everything about human beings, is one of the most important intellectual
resources of techno-skeptics. Another approach is the view that artificial
intelligence will be capable of solving all the problems of humanity when human
intelligence exceeds its limits. From environmental problems to health and work,
artificial intelligence will be able to easily reach solutions that human intelligence
14
cannot find. Both views melt into the crucible of the ambiguity of the future. But
foresight is humanity's best safety brake. For this reason, taking precautions over
worst-case scenarios can contribute to more reliable progress by questioning
scientific developments [25].
In the scientific world, the view of artificial intelligence is divided into 3 different
branches. Those who greet technological developments with great appetite, like
Ray Kurzweil, and techno-skeptics, and those who, like Elon Musk, have
dystopian predictions that artificial intelligence could be the end of humanity
[7,25].
According to some, artificial intelligence technologies are a tool that will solve
most of the chronic problems of humanity that have remained unsolved
throughout history and will bring humanity to the comfortable life that it has
dreamed of since the ancient world. It's hard to think of any problem that
superintelligence can't solve, or at least help us solve, says Kurzweil: Disease,
poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all species.130
There are countless examples of the benefits artificial intelligence can bring to
humanity. For example, if artificial intelligence technology had been more
advanced in the Fukushima disaster in 2011, the effects would have been much
less, since it would be possible for robots to work easily in risky areas in terms of
human health. One of the most talked about sub-titles of Artificial Intelligence is
machine learning. Today, in the world of science, machines that can make
decisions and implement them alone without the need for human intelligence are
mentioned. The possibility that machines could have an "artificial" intelligence
gave the world a new subject to be excited about. It is predicted that this new
technology, which can be developed in the face of the anxiety caused by physical
dangers such as global warming, can produce solutions to many problems faced
by humanity. According to some scientists, such as AI professor Tom Dietterich,
Former President of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence,
even if artificial intelligence technology develops, machines will still remain slaves
serving humanity [25].
However, contrary to this idea, we can say that the prediction of the Swedish
philosopher Nick Bostrom, who works at Oxford, that artificial intelligence may be
the last invention of humanity, is an idea that will always remain on the agenda
due to the "crazy" progress of artificial intelligence technologies [25].
Studies on artificial intelligence continue and many different robotics companies
come up with robots that can perform new and more complex operations every
day. However, we do not yet have enough solid evidence that an artificial
intelligence imagination like the one in science fiction cinema can be realized in
the near future. However, as Kurtzweil stated, we can say that science is
advancing at an exponentially increasing rate [25].
15. ORİGİNS OF ROBONOMİCS
Robonomics is an economic system that uses robots, artificial intelligence, and
automation technologies in the (service) sector instead of human labor as
production factors. For simplicity, they use the term “robot” as an umbrella term
15
for all RAIA technologies. These relate to the number of hours a robot can work,
which human workers can work many more hours than the normal 40-hour work
week, and the possibility of implementing various tasks and expanding the scope
of robots with appropriate software and hardware upgrades, and are intended to
be able to work 24/7. In addition, robots can perform the same routine, boring,
and/or dangerous tasks over and over again, accurately and on time, without any
complaints, strikes, or negative emotions. In the future, RAIA technologies may
be more easily purchased or rented than hiring human workers. At the same
time, contracts between RAIA manufacturers and their commercial customers
can be terminated more easily and less hastily than business contracts with
RAIA. It is thought that the new system will bring great convenience, especially in
developed countries where there are well-established trade unions, they want
high wages for human workers and where there is a long history of employment-
related lawsuits. On the other hand, robot technology will not be independent of
human control anytime soon. This means that human workers may not be
completely replaced by robots in the foreseeable future, but a significant
reduction in the number of human workers in current jobs can be expected. Also,
robots lack creativity and personal approach to service delivery (partly
overcoming the possibility of multilingual human-robot communication) and need
structured (predictable) situations to function properly, at least at the moment.
However, rapid advances in robotics and artificial intelligence suggest that in the
future robots will be able to perform a wider variety of tasks currently only
performed by humans. This means that this development will fuel the anti-robot
technophobic and Neo-Luddism movement, where companies will begin to
actively consider employing robots instead of human workers [22,2,3].
In any case, when we compare the situation of robots and human workers, the
future does not look bright for human workers and many will see their current
jobs disappear and be taken over by robots [24]; especially for those who work in
repetitive, tedious, and/or dangerous tasks, and human workers whose jobs are
subject to strict algorithms, the adoption of RAIA will put downward pressure on
wages [26]. Of course, new technologies will create new jobs for people with new
skills, but they may create few jobs too late. This provides grounds for many
authors to argue that robots will have a profoundly negative impact on society
because hundreds of millions of people will be unemployed and lack the skills
needed to work in a robotized economy [23,27]. Metaphorically, we can say that
“silicon will replace carbon” in robonomics [22,2,3].
16. PRİNCİPLES OF ROBONOMİCS
The emergence of the science of robonomics will have a major impact on
economic theory and practice. While many of the basic economic principles will
still be applied, other principles and their implications for reallife business
practice will need to be reformulated. In particular, the following principles of
robotonomy can be determined [22,2,3]:
(1) High level of automation of production—This is the fundamental principle
of robotomy: all or most of the products (goods and services) are
16
produced/provided by robots/artificial intelligence/self-service/automation
technologies. Human labor is often used to control the production process
without much involvement in the actual production of goods or the
provision of services.
(2) Fewer but more knowledge-intensive jobs—Most people do not work and
those who do work predominantly hold highly paid knowledge-intensive
RAIA-supported creative jobs.
(3) Disconnecting employment and income—This is one of the most
fundamental features of robotonomies. Due to the low number of people
employed in economic activities, employment is not the main source of
income for households. Governments provide citizens with a universal
basic income.
(4) Active use of various single and multi-purpose industrial, service, and
social robots—Robots are not limited to manufacturing, warehousing, or
transportation, but provide services and act as companions to humans,
including sexual partners.
(5) High-cost efficiency of production—New technologies allow the production
of (many) goods on demand of single/several units(s) in an economically
efficient manner. Society will be able to reach the stage of “radical
abundance” (to use the terminology of Drexler, 2013) or “economy of
abundance” [28].
(6) Small and dispersed factories close to consumers—This is a direct result
of the high-cost efficiency of automated production processes that allow
smaller manufacturers to take advantage of economies of scale, be closer
to consumers, and save on product lead time and costs.
(7) High standardization of services—Due to the use of RAIA, there is a strict
algorithm of service delivery. (8) Sources of competitive advantage are not
abundance of labor and capital, but knowledge and creativity [22,2,3].
The principles of Robonomics will have enormous economic, social, and political
consequences. Robonomics will not happen overnight—after the initial
excitement and frustration that usually accompanies the introduction of any
technology [29], we will observe the gradual spread of RAIA across industries
and countries. Small automated factories will be set up near the cities where
customers live, resulting in lower labor costs and outsourcing to attract foreign
investors as a competitive advantage. For example, a US-based company that
manufactures its products in Southeast Asia, Latin America, or Eastern Europe
and imports those products from the US may not be required to continue this
practice. RAIA can offset lower labor costs in these region countries and it can
become more economically efficient for the company to build smaller automated
factories. Thus, smart production facilities that can be established in big cities/big
cities in developed countries will be able to save on logistics costs and delivery
time. Similarly, chatbots may replace most of the employees in customer call
centers in these countries. Therefore, when a transnational company introduces
RAIA, it affects not only its home country workforce, but also those abroad.
Therefore, we can say that in the future we will observe the spillover effects of
RAIA from developed economies to developing economies as the process of
17
replacing low-cost workforce in developing countries with automated factories
and robots in developed economies [22,2,3].
17. BENEFİTS AND CHALLENGES OF ROBONOMİCS
The most obvious benefit is improved long-term quality of life as people are freed
from difficult, repetitive, intellectually unchallenging work. People will experience
a significant increase in their leisure time, which will enable them to pursue more
creative, healthy living, pleasure, and self-actualization activities, and thus people
will have more time for travel. We can expect that the increase in leisure time
coupled with advances in medicine, the absence of work-related stress, will lead
to improved people’s standard of health and increased life expectancy [22,2,3].
While the benefits of Robonomics for society may not seem lucrative, society will
enjoy them in the long run. However, it may have to pay a high social cost in the
short and medium term. Because of increased technological productivity, many
job losses from RAIA may not be compensated for by newly created jobs, while
the unemployed may not be so easily requalified to face the skills requirements
of the robotized economy. Therefore, in the short and medium term (e.g. 10-15
years) society will face significant technological unemployment and human
resource surplus. In the long run, companies and governments that can continue
to demand increased labor and technology will create social unrest by causing
significant psychological problems for the millions of unemployed who have too
much free time and cannot find a job to fill them. This may result in the
emergence of populist robophobic parties and political instability. Increasing
internal and external migration can be expected to further fuel social tension.
After all, if social processes are not properly controlled, the fabric of society can
be damaged in places by changes in human values: when RAIA can meet their
needs, people may begin to consider whether they need to communicate with
other people and maintain (family) relationships [22,2,3].
18. SUGGESTED SOLUTİONS FOR SOCİAL PROBLEMS THAT
ROBONOMİCS CAN BRİNG
Previous studies of literature have focused on mandating employment,
government job creation, job sharing, employment impact statements, tax
policies, and financial incentives for job creation, etc. focused on some solution
proposals for technological unemployment, such as: Stevens and Marchant [30].
These solutions assume that given the right incentives, the economy will create
enough jobs to maintain full employment. However, they can work at
intermediate stops on the way to robtoonomy as tools to mitigate risks [22,2,3].
The effects of technological unemployment will only be in question during full
robotonomy, where the society has reached the full robotization of the economy
and people do not need to work. Some specific solutions to the problems that
robotonomy can cause may include [22,2,3]:
(1) Continuous and fluent (lifelong) free education: It is the most obvious
solution to technological unemployment. People will have to accept that
18
education does not end with finishing university, it is a lifelong process. In
fact, in order to remain employable in the labor market, they will
sometimes need to take regular (online) courses in their professional field
every five-seven years to enroll in graduate programs completely
unrelated to their previous education [22].
(2) Entertainment, tourism, leisure activities, volunteering: Having too much
free time can be psychologically challenging for many people. A
robotonomy society may need activities such as leisure, tourism, volunteer
activities in leisure time to occupy people’s minds and fill the void left by
the lack of employment activities [22,2,3].
Universal basic income (UBI): it is widely discussed as a solution to
technological unemployment [31,32]. Basic Income Studies are discussable
approach to improve at AI studies. Under the UBI program, every citizen of a
country receives a fixed amount of money each month, regardless of
employment status. All other social payments are stopped and replaced with UBI.
The main advantage of UBI is that it will provide income and serve as a social
safety net to all people in a society—even if people fail in their entrepreneurial
activities, UBI will provide them with resources to sustain their families. Also, the
UBI system will be easy to manage. The same amount of money will be
transferred to everyone once and every month, no one will need to prove
anything. Therefore, fewer government employees will be needed. There will be
no need for existing heavy bureaucratic social welfare systems. UBI, on the other
hand, would need a lot of resources to finance payments for every person in a
country [22,2,3].
With limited income tax revenues (due to the low number of employed people),
the system can be difficult to finance. In addition, UBI can suppress many
people’s requests for funding to work and develop themselves. Their lack of skills
thus renders them permanently unemployed. Also, if UBI is implemented in only
one or a few countries without strict immigration control, there will certainly be a
large influx of immigrants who will apply for citizenship to take advantage of UBI.
Thus, in order to be successful without causing social pressure through
migration, UBI probably needs to be introduced on a global scale, which raises
the issue of ensuring a global presence [22,2,3].
Robot-based taxation is recognized as one of the ways to finance UBI. In
essence, under the robot tax scheme, every company using robots must pay
taxes, and the proceeds are used to support the UBI of displaced human
workers. Although robot-based taxation sounds very appealing, its impracticality
makes its implementation impossible. It would be practically impossible to
provide a comprehensive list of definitions and types of taxable robots. Robot
manufacturers will be able to make minor changes to robots to go beyond legal
definitions. People may disagree about where the line between an ordinary
machine and a robot lies. Also, will an automated factory be treated as a single
robot or as each piece of machinery/equipment in it? Difficulties in determining
the tax base (value of the robot) and the taxable unit (robot, online bot or
automated factory) make robot tax impossible in the near future [22,2,3].
19
Birth control/maternity patents: Birth control/maternity patents taking the
stress out of work, having a lot of free time and getting a guaranteed UBI will
encourage many families to have more children and lead to a demographic
explosion. This will create additional social pressure. Because of the quaranted
income, the population can grow so, new people stay out of work, new people
qualifying for UBI and more financial resources are required each year to
maintain the standard of living of the growing population. This may motivate
some politicians to adopt a neo-Malthusian approach. The perceived
“overpopulation” approach can be avoided by introducing strict birth control. The
practice of requiring a family to obtain a birthright patent before having children,
otherwise the fetus will suffer an abortion, may deter many families from having
more than a few children. Modern society is already familiar with similar
contraceptive practices (for example, China’s one-child policy), and birth rates
are falling significantly in many developed countries [33]. Therefore, such policy
proposals are not alien to the populations of developed countries [22,2,3].
Advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, and (service) automation make us see
that robonomics is an inevitable economic system. Therefore, economists,
politicians, companies, financial institutions, education, and welfare systems, all
citizens must be prepared for his arrival [34-37]. The next question is: when will
society reach the robotonomic stage of economic development? Only a crystal
ball viewer can definitively answer this question (although not strictly correct).
Robonomics will not happen overnight, but gradually, it may take place first in
developed countries and then spread to the rest of the world. We can say that
exciting years lie ahead [22,2,3].
19. CONCLUSİON
The studies and researches that have been done give us an idea about the
social life that the production based on smart robots and made in smart factories
can create in the future and the developments that may occur in the economic
literature. However, the fact that national borders may disappear when every
country starts production with smart factories, and even that productivity may
increase as they disappear, seems to be able to provide a greater increase in
welfare than the social problems that technological unemployment may cause.
For developing countries like Turkey, we can say that a window of opportunity
has been opened in the implementation of radical innovation. We can say that
countries that make good use of it will benefit from the increase in welfare.
COMPETING INTERESTS
Author has declared that no competing interests exist.
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Biography of author(s)
Sıtkı Selim Dolanay
Istanbul Topkapı University, Istanbul, Turkey.
He was born on March 18, 1968 in Ankara. After completing his primary and secondary education in
Ankara, he passed the University entrance exam in 1985. He completed his undergraduate education at
Ankara University, Faculty of Political Sciences, Department of Economics in 1989. He graduated from
the Gazi University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics in
1998 and get a master’s degree. He completed his doctorate (PhD) education at Süleyman Demirel
University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics in 2017, and
was entitled to receive the title of Doctor. He began to work at Istanbul Topkapı University, Department
of Economics in April 2021 as a Dr Faculty Member. He started to work as a lecturer and continues his
duty. His first book "Antipositivists in Philosophy of Science and Economics" was published by Alter
Publishing in 2010. This book of the author made its 2nd edition in 2020 with the name "Antipositivists in
Philosophy of Science and Economics". His book, Technological Development in Automotive Industry,
which he prepared with Prof. Dr. Bekir Sami Oğuztürk, has been published In 2018. "Keynes and His
Followers", which was published in 2020, became the third book of the author, and in 2022, the author's
book "National Innovation System from Local to Global and Path Dependency" was published. Currently,
he has 4 published books, 15 articles and 25 papers. The author continues his studies on technology,
technology transfer, technological capability, technological development, economic cycles and
technological and economic path dependence.
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© Copyright (2023): Author(s). The licensee is the publisher (B P International).
DISCLAIMER
This chapter is an extended version of the article published by the same author(s) in the following journal.
Management Studies, 10(6): 384-399, 2022. DOI: 10.17265/2328-2185/2022.06.006
Peer-Review History: During review of this manuscript, double blind peer-review policy has been followed. All
manuscripts are thoroughly checked to prevent plagiarism. Minimum two peer-reviewers reviewed each manuscript. After
review and revision of the manuscript, the Book Editor approved only quality manuscripts for final publication.
