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The Effect Of Home-Based Hypertension Screening On Blood Pressure Change Over Time In South Africa: A home-based hypertension screening intervention in South Africa resulted in important reductions in systolic blood pressure for women and younger men.

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Abstract

There is considerable policy interest in home-based screening campaigns for hypertension in many low- and middle-income countries. However, it is unclear whether such efforts will result in long-term population-level blood pressure improvements without more comprehensive interventions that strengthen the entire hypertension care continuum. Using multiple waves of the South African National Income Dynamics Study and the regression discontinuity design, we evaluated the impact of home-based hypertension screening on two-year change in blood pressure. We found that the home-based screening intervention resulted in important reductions in systolic blood pressure for women and younger men. We did not find evidence of an effect on systolic blood pressure for older men or on diastolic blood pressure for either sex. Our results suggest that home-based hypertension screening may be a promising strategy for reducing high blood pressure in low- and middle-income countries, but additional research and policy efforts are needed to ensure that such strategies have maximum reach and impact.
By Nikkil Sudharsanan, Simiao Chen, Michael Garber, Till Bärnighausen, and Pascal Geldsetzer
The Effect Of Home-Based
Hypertension Screening On Blood
Pressure Change Over Time In
South Africa
ABSTRACT
There is considerable policy interest in home-based screening
campaigns for hypertension in many low- and middle-income countries.
However, it is unclear whether such efforts will result in long-term
population-level blood pressure improvements without more
comprehensive interventions that strengthen the entire hypertension care
continuum. Using multiple waves of the South African National Income
Dynamics Study and the regression discontinuity design, we evaluated the
impact of home-based hypertension screening on two-year change in
blood pressure. We found that the home-based screening intervention
resulted in important reductions in systolic blood pressure for women
and younger men. We did not find evidence of an effect on systolic blood
pressure for older men or on diastolic blood pressure for either sex. Our
results suggest that home-based hypertension screening may be a
promising strategy for reducing high blood pressure in low- and middle-
income countries, but additional research and policy efforts are needed to
ensure that such strategies have maximum reach and impact.
High blood pressure, or hyperten-
sion, is a main cause of stroke
and cardiovascular disease and
carries a substantial health and
economic burden globally.15It
is a growing problem in South Africa, where
more than 25 percent of adults older than age
thirty-five are hypertensive, and hypertension-
related causes of death are estimated to account
for three of the top ten causes of death.68If
hypertension is detected, diagnosed, and treated
effectively, its health and mortality consequenc-
es can be reduced substantially.9,10 Unfortunate-
ly, among South African adults with hyperten-
sion, only 28 percent are aware of their
condition, and just 9 percent have their blood
pressure under control.11
Home-based screening for hypertension has
the potential to result in large populationwide
improvements in blood pressure control in
South Africa and other low- and middle-income
countries. First, hypertension screening is a rel-
atively straightforward and low-cost process.
Second, home-based screening may result in
greater population coverage than health facili-
tybased screening by capturing people who are
unlikely to seek preventive care or care for ill-
nesses perceived as minor at health facilities.
Despite the considerable enthusiasm for home-
based screening,12,13 broad community- and
home-based screening efforts might not result
in blood pressure improvements if people who
are screened at home and identified as potential-
ly hypertensive do not confirm their diagnosis at
a health facility, or if people who are aware that
they are hypertensive do not initiate and adhere
to treatment. To date, there is a dearth of evi-
dence on whether home-based hypertension
screening will result in long-term blood pressure
improvements without more comprehensive in-
terventions that strengthen the entire hyperten-
sion care continuum.
doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00585
HEALTH AFFAIRS 39,
NO. 1 (2020): 124132
©2020 Project HOPE
The People-to-People Health
Foundation, Inc.
Nikkil Sudharsanan (nikkil
.sudharsanan@uni-
heidelberg.de) is lead of the
Population Health and
Development research group
at the Heidelberg Institute of
Global Health, Heidelberg
University, in Germany.
Simiao Chen is head of the
research unit, Health and
Population Economics,
Heidelberg Institute of Global
Health, Heidelberg University.
Michael Garber is a PhD
candidateintheDepartment
of Epidemiology, Rollins
School of Public Health,
Emory University, in Atlanta,
Georgia.
Till Bärnighausen is the
Alexander von Humboldt
University Professor and
director of the Heidelberg
Institute of Global Health,
Heidelberg University. He is
also senior faculty at the
Africa Health Research
Institute, in Somkhele, South
Africa, and an adjunct
professor of global health at
the Harvard T. H. Chan School
of Public Health, in Boston,
Massachusetts.
Pascal Geldsetzer is an
instructor in the Division of
Primary Care and Population
Health, Department of
Medicine, Stanford University,
in California.
124 Health Affairs January 2020 39:1
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In this study we evaluated the real-world im-
pact of home-based hypertension screening on
two-year change in blood pressure in a nationally
representative cohort of South African adults.
We employed a novel application of the regres-
sion discontinuity design that took advantage of
the fact that the activities of the fieldworker team
as part of this cohort study closely mimicked
those of a home-based hypertension screening
campaign. Our aim was to inform researchers
and policy makers seeking to identify effective
ways to reduce rising levels of cardiovascular
disease in South Africa and other low- and mid-
dle-income countries.
This study was preregistered on ClinicalTrials
.gov (No. NCT03762304) and was exempt from
Institutional Review Board approval because it
used publicly available, deidentified secondary
data.
Study Data And Methods
National Income Dynamics Study We used da-
ta from the 2008, 201011, 2012, 201415, and
2017 waves of the National Income Dynamics
Study.14 The study is a nationally representative
longitudinal survey of approximately 28,000
people from 7,300 households across South
Africa. The study data contain a wide array of
social, economic, demographic, and health in-
formation for both individuals and households.
We provide detailed information on the sam-
pling procedures and survey activities in online
appendix II.15 Briefly, the study used a two-stage
cluster probability sample, with the Statistics
South Africa primary sampling units as the first
stage and dwellings within each primary sam-
pling unit as the second stage. If there were mul-
tiple households in a dwelling, each household
was assigned a unique identifier. If a member of
a household agreed to be interviewed, the house-
hold was included in the sample and all individ-
uals in the household were interviewed. In all,
7,305 of 10,642 households agreed to participate
in the baseline survey, for a 69 percent baseline
response rate. All individuals identified in the
baseline survey were treated as panel respon-
dents, and efforts were made to locate and rein-
terview them in each of the subsequent waves.
New household members were interviewed in
subsequent waves but followed longitudinally
only if they were present in the household again
in the follow-up waves of data collection. Our
analysis longitudinally followed individuals for
only one pair of waves. For example, if a person
was interviewed in 2008, we needed information
on that person only from the 201011 wave. The
between-wave loss to follow-up was 26 percent.
(See appendix I for more details on missing data
and loss to follow-up.)15 Our overall sample con-
tained all age-eligible individuals with nonmiss-
ing blood pressure information in both the base-
line and follow-up waves of data.
Intervention The intervention we studied
was fieldworkersinforming people in the house-
hold that their blood pressure was high, that
high blood pressure can have adverse health
consequences if left uncontrolled, and that they
should seek further care. This intervention oc-
curred as part of routine data collection for the
National Income Dynamics Study. Specifically,
fieldworkers collected two blood pressure meas-
urements on each adult member of the house-
hold using an Omron digital blood pressure
monitor and entered these readings on a health
information sheet (see appendix XIII).15 If either
of the two readings had a systolic blood pressure
of 140 mmHg or more or a diastolic blood pres-
sure of 90 mmHg or more, the fieldworker
checked a box that read (in the participants na-
tive language): Your blood pressure readings
are higher than normal. High blood pressure
is dangerous because it makes the heart work
too hard. High blood pressure increases the risk
of heart disease and stroke. High blood pressure
can also cause other problems, such as heart
failure, kidney disease, and blindness. You can
control high blood pressure by taking action.
Based on the reading, additional boxes were
checked to suggest how soon the participant
should seek medical care. The fieldworkers then
orally conveyed this information to participants
and gave them a copy of the filled-out health
information sheet in their native language.
Outcome Our primary outcome of interest was
between-wave changes in blood pressure. For
example, for a person whose blood pressure was
measured in 2008 and again in 201011, we
would estimate the impact of the intervention
in 2008 on their change in systolic and diastolic
blood pressure (separately) between those two
measurements. We used the average of the two
blood pressure measurements recorded in each
wave of the data. Since we used information
from five waves of data with approximately two
years between each wave, the outcome corre-
sponded, on average, to a two-year change in
blood pressure.
Statistical Methods We used the regression
discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of
home-based hypertension screening on blood
pressure change over time. (Detailed informa-
tion on the study design and estimation is in
appendix III.)15 In comparison to other observa-
tional study designs, the regression discontinu-
ity design is thought to be particularly appropri-
ate for estimating causal effects because it relies
on relatively weak assumptions that can be par-
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tially verified empirically.1618 Indeed, recent
studies have found that estimates using this de-
sign come close to estimates from randomized
clinical trials.19,20
In this study we took advantage of the fact that
the screening intervention was administered to
people only if they had a measured systolic blood
pressure of at least 140 mmHg or a diastolic
blood pressure of at least 90 mmHg. Intuitively,
the main assumption of the design was that peo-
ple just above these blood pressure cutoffs were
comparable to those just below the cutoff on all
factors related to blood pressure change over
time. The only difference between these two
groups was that those above the 140 mmHg sys-
tolic or 90 mmHg diastolic cutoffs received the
intervention. Therefore, the effect of the inter-
vention was estimated by comparing the average
two-year change in blood pressure among people
whose systolic blood pressure was just above
140 mmHg or whose diastolic blood pressure was
just above 90 mmHg (who were administered the
intervention and thus formed the intervention
group) to the change among those whose blood
pressure was just below those cutoffs (who were
just shy of receiving the intervention). In prac-
tice, the regression discontinuity design was im-
plemented with slightly weaker assumptions,
which we discuss in detail in appendix III.15
The main assumption of the design was that
other characteristics related to our outcome
two-year change in blood pressuredid not sub-
stantially change at the cutoff points used by
fieldworkers to determine which people should
receive the intervention. There are few reasons to
believe that other characteristics related to the
outcome differed substantially between people
with blood pressure just above and just below the
cutoffs. First, blood pressure monitors measure
blood pressure with a degree of random mea-
surement error, and blood pressure varies ran-
domly over time within individuals.21 Therefore,
whether people had blood pressure just above
or below one of the cutoffs at the time of the
survey was effectively random. Second, the field-
workers did not use the cutoffs to provide any
other interventions, so the effect of the interven-
tion could not be confounded with that of other
programs. Third, the cutoffs do not represent
an underlying pathophysiological phenomenon
that occurs at these precise levels of blood pres-
sure.22 Therefore, there are no reasons to believe
that people just above and just below the cutoffs
are biologically different in ways that would
also affect their blood pressure change over
time. Lastly, we empirically tested whether indi-
vidual characteristics were substantially differ-
ent among people just above and just below the
cutoffs (appendix VII),15 which is similar to the
balance test routinely done in clinical trials.23
We did not find consistent evidence of differenc-
es in any of the pre-intervention variables that
we tested at the cutoffs.
Li mi tati on s Our study had several limita-
tions. First, we were unable to identify whether
fieldworkers administered the intervention or
not. Therefore, our results correspond to an
intention-to-treat estimate. This issue is not
unique to our study, however, and intention-
to-treat estimates are commonly used in clinical
trials in which participantsadherence to a treat-
ment or intervention cannot be ensured. Indeed,
the intention-to-treat estimate is a better mea-
sure of the real-life impact of an intervention
than the estimate of effectiveness under condi-
tions of perfect fieldworker adherence and inter-
vention fidelity.24
Second, 31 percent of households that were
selected for the National Income Dynamics
Study did not provide a response to the survey.
These households were more likely to be white
and located in urban areas.25
Third, 26 percent of the people in our sample
were lost to follow-up between waves. In appen-
dix IX we compare differences in baseline char-
acteristics between those who were and were not
lost to follow-up.15 We found that men and wom-
en lost to follow-up were more likely to report
having fair or poor self-rated health at baseline,
and that women lost to follow-up were more
likely to have more than secondary schooling.
However, we found no change to our conclusions
after we reestimated our main effects with in-
verse probability weights to adjust for these ob-
served differences. Inverse probability weight-
ing, however, cannot adjust for loss to follow-
up due to unobserved characteristics.
Fourth, 15 percent of age-eligible people were
dropped because of missing blood pressure data.
As a result of the foregoing limitations, our
results might not represent the effect that would
be observed in the overall South African popula-
tion if the intervention had a different impact on
individuals in households who did not respond,
were lost to follow-up, or were dropped due to
missing blood pressure data, compared to the
Theimpactofthe
intervention was fairly
large but still short of
clinical goals.
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impact on individuals included in the analysis.
A broader limitation of the regression discon-
tinuity design is that it estimates local effects (in
this case, only among people with blood pressure
near the cutoffs) and might not be generalizable
to the entire distribution (here, of blood pres-
sure). This limitation is especially important to
consider when interpreting our findings, if the
goal of screening policies is to identify high-risk
people who may have blood pressure far above
the cutoffs. Appendix III presents a full discus-
sion of all the limitations, validity checks, and
sensitivity analyses.15
Study Results
Sample Characteristics Our analytic samples
consisted of individuals in the overall samples
whose blood pressure was within the windows
around cutoffs that were used to form the inter-
vention and control groups. These windows ex-
tend both above and below the cutoffs and are
the range in which the analysis is conducted. The
size of the window is estimated empirically and is
therefore different for each sex and outcome.
There were few important differences between
people in the overall and analytic systolic blood
pressure samples. Members of the analytic sys-
tolic blood pressure sample were older for both
men (49.5 years versus 46.8 years) and women
(54.2 years versus 47.6 years), compared to their
respective overall systolic blood pressure sam-
ples (exhibit 1). Additionally, women in the ana-
lytic systolic blood pressure sample were less
likely to have more than secondary schooling
(10 percent versus 14 percent) and slightly more
likely to report having fair or poor self-rated
health (25 percent versus 20 percent). In con-
trast, we did not find any meaningful differences
between the diastolic blood pressure samples for
either men or women.
Baseline Maximum Blood Pressure And
Two-Year Change For men, there was little vi-
sual evidence of a discontinuity at the cutoff for
systolic blood pressure (exhibit 2). In contrast,
for women, there was evidence of a downward
jump at the cutoff, which suggests that the inter-
vention had an impact on their systolic blood
pressure change over time.
For diastolic blood pressure, we did not ob-
serve evidence of a potential intervention effect
among either sex (exhibit 3).
Impact Of The Intervention On Two-Year
Change In Blood P ressure Appendix table 2
Exhibit 1
Characteristics of the overall and analytic samples for South African adults ages 30 and older, 200817
Men Women
Characteristics Overall sample Analytic sample Overall sample Analytic sample
Systolic blood pressure
Number 6,163 2,265 11,396 2,801
Mean age, years (SD) 46.8 (13.1) 49.5 (14.0) 47.6 (13.5) 54.2 (13.5)
Urban 52% 50% 47% 44%
More than secondary schooling 16 14 14 10
Fair or poor self-rated health 16 17 20 25
Prior stroke 1 1 2 2
Prior diabetes 5 6 7 10
Prior heart attack 2 2 4 5
Smoker 42 41 8 9
Has health insurance 13 13 10 8
Diastolic blood pressure
Number 6,405 2,699 12,753 8,045
Mean age, years (SD) 45.3 (12.3) 44.8 (11.7) 46.1 (12.5) 46.6 (12.2)
Urban 53% 55% 48% 48%
More than secondary schooling 17 17 14 14
Fair or poor self-rated health 15 13 19 19
Prior stroke 1 1 2 2
Prior diabetes 4 4 6 7
Prior heart attack 2 2 4 4
Smoker 42 40 8 9
Has health insurance 13 15 10 10
SOURCE Authorsanalysis of data from the 2008, 201011, 2012, 201415, and 2017 waves of the National Income Dynamics Study.
NOTES The overall sample is explained in the text. The analytic sample is the people in the overall sample whose blood pressure was
within the windows around the blood pressure cutoffs (explained in the text) used to estimate the effect of the intervention on two-
year change in blood pressure. Appendix IVcontains an extended version of this exhibit (see note 15 in text). SD is standard deviation.
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presents the regression-discontinuity estimates
of the impact of the intervention on two-year
change in blood pressure.15 These estimates con-
firm the visual evidence presented in exhibits 2
and 3.We found that the intervention resulted in
a systolic blood pressure reduction of 4.7 mmHg
for women (95% confidence interval: 12.6,
2.1; p¼0:006). In contrast, we did not find
evidence that the intervention lowered diastolic
blood pressure for women or either blood pres-
sure outcome for men.
Heterogeneity Analyses Exhibit 4 plots the
effect of the intervention on two-year change
in blood pressure separately by sex, age, and
schooling. We found evidence that the impact
of the intervention on systolic blood pressure
was more pronounced among adults ages 30
45 than among older age groups. For men
ages 3045, the intervention resulted in a reduc-
tion in systolic blood pressure of 7.0 mmHg
(p¼0:022), compared to essentially null effects
for men in the other age groups. Similarly, for
women, the intervention had the largest impact
on systolic blood pressure for those ages 3045: a
reduction of 9.1 mmHg. However, this effect was
estimated with a very wide confidence interval.
In contrast, we did not find evidence of hetero-
geneity in the impact of the intervention on sys-
tolic blood pressure by schooling groups or on
diastolic blood pressure for any of the groups.
Robustness And Validity We tested the as-
sumption that there were no significant discon-
tinuities in other variables that could also influ-
ence the outcome at the cutoffs for a number
of baseline pre-intervention variables (appen-
dix VII).15 For women in the systolic blood pres-
sure sample, we found no evidence of significant
changes at the cutoff for any of the pretreatment
variables. For men in the systolic blood pressure
sample, we found a small increase in age at
the cutoff, which suggests that the intervention
group was slightly older than the control group.
Next, we tested whether fieldworkers may
have deliberately underreported respondents
baseline blood pressure measurement to avoid
having to administer the intervention. We did
this by examining the density of baseline blood
pressure to check whether there was a bunching
of individuals just below the cutoffs. We did not
find evidence of bunching suggestive of manip-
ulation (appendix VI).15 The results presented
here were also robust to the size of the window
around the cutoffs used to form the treatment
and control groups (appendix VIII)15 and to po-
tential selection bias introduced by loss to fol-
low-up between waves (appendix X).15 Lastly, our
results were consistent when we split the sample
by pairs of waves instead of pooling all five waves
of data (appendix XI).15
Discussion
We found that home-based hypertension screen-
ing resulted in an important 4.7 mmHg reduc-
tion in systolic blood pressure for South African
women.While there was no evidence of an impact
of hypertension screening among men overall,
the intervention did result in a reduction in sys-
tolic blood pressure of 7.0 mmHg for younger
men (those ages 3045). The age-variation find-
ings were from a subgroup analysis that we did
not specify in our preregistration analysis plan;
however, we found a consistent advantage for
younger men when we examined each pair of
waves separately (appendix XI).15 This provides
some evidence of a consistent and nonspurious
effect. In contrast to systolic blood pressure, we
found no evidence that the intervention reduced
diastolic blood pressure among either men or
women. These results were consistent across
multiple robustness checks.
Our finding of a beneficial impact on systolic
Exhibit 2
Two-year change in systolic blood pressure (BP) among South African adults ages 30 and
older, by sex and baseline systolic BP, 200817
SOURCE Authorsanalysis of data from the 2008, 201011, 2012, 201415, and 2017 waves of the
National Income Dynamics Study. NOTES Theverticallineat140mmHgisthecutoffpointafterwhich
the intervention was administered. Each point in the exhibit is the average two-year change for each
single-unit BP value, and the lines represent local linear fits separately on each side of the cutoff
point. Women have fewer values than men do because the range around the intervention cutoff was
determined empirically, and this resulted in a wider range for men than women.
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blood pressure among women overall but not
among men overall is consistent with a large
literature on chronic diseases in low- and middle-
income countries that generally has found great-
er levels of health-seeking behavior and treat-
ment adherence among women compared to
men. For example, the benefits of antiretroviral
treatment scale-up in South Africaand sub-
Saharan Africa more broadlyhas dispropor-
tionately benefited women,26 who tend to have
better medication adherence, care retention, and
health outcomes than men do.27 Qualitative stud-
ies suggest that this might be because men tend
to view health care facilities as being designated
for women and children,28,29 and gender norms
expect men to endure bad health instead of seek-
ing help.30,31 The restricted hours when health
care facilities are open may also make it more
difficult for men to seek care since in many pop-
ulations they are more likely than women to
work outside of their communities during the
day.32 Similar factors are likely to affect mens
care seeking for cardiovascular disease risk fac-
tors. Indeed, the few large-scale studies to date
on care seeking for hypertension in low- and
middle-income countries have found higher
rates of awareness, treatment, and control of
hypertension among women than men.5,11,33,34
One unexpected finding is that the interven-
tion resulted in reductions in systolic, but not
diastolic, blood pressure. This pattern may be
because antihypertensive medicines often result
in greater reductions in systolic compared to
diastolic blood pressure, with this difference be-
coming larger with increasing age.35 Greater re-
ductions in systolic blood pressure are especially
pronounced when people are treated with thia-
zide diuretics,36 which are the recommended
first-line antihypertensive medications in South
Africa.36,37 Importantly, lowering systolic blood
pressure is the more relevant target for the pre-
vention of cardiovascular events and mortali-
ty.3841 This is especially so in the context of aging
populations such as South Africas, since systolic
blood pressure continues to rise in older age
while diastolic blood pressure tends to level off
in midlife.22
The impact of the intervention was fairly large
but still short of clinical goals. For reference,
most clinical protocols suggest that people near
the systolic blood pressure cutoff of 140 mmHg
should aim for a target blood pressure below
130 mmHg.42 The improvements we observed
relative to clinical goals might reflect losses at
any of multiple steps of the care cascade. First,
people who are screened and identified as poten-
tially hypertensive might not seek further care.
This hypothesis is consistent with descriptive
studies from African countries that generally
have found low levels of health care linkage
following a home-based screening.4345 Second,
people who are diagnosed and prescribed treat-
ment might not initiate treatment or might not
adhere to treatment after initiation. Studies on
the cascade of care for hypertension from Afri-
can countries have found low levels of treatment
and control among people diagnosed with hyper-
tension.5,46 However, the contribution of treat-
ment initiation and adherence to the number of
hypertensive people with suboptimal blood pres-
sure is small when compared to the substantial
share of people with hypertension who do not
make contact with the health system and are not
formally diagnosed.11,33 This suggests that low
levels of health-seeking behavior following a
positive home-based screening for hypertension
may be the most important contributor to the
low effect of screening on blood pressure reduc-
tions over time found in this study.
Policy Implications
Population aging in South Africa is expected to
result in an additional 912 million people in
need of care for hypertension by 2050.47 South
Africas health system is ill prepared for provid-
ing this level of care and will need to develop new
systems to achieve widespread blood pressure
control.13 Controlling blood pressure at the pop-
Exhibit 3
Two-year change in diastolic blood pressure (BP) among South African adults ages 30 and
older, by sex and baseline diastolic BP, 200817
SOURCE Authorsanalysis of data from the 2008, 201011, 2012, 201415, and 2017 waves of the
National Income Dynamics Study. NOTES The vertical line at 90 mmHg is the cutoff point after which
the intervention was administered.The points and lines are explained in the notes to exhibit 2, as is
thedifferenceinvaluesbetweenmenandwomen.
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ulation level is the result of several sequential
steps, starting from identifying people with hy-
pertension, moving through treatment initia-
tion and adherence, and ultimately leading to
controlled blood pressure. Since a substantial
share of individuals are lost at each step of this
care cascade in both high-income countries and
low- and middle-income countries,5,48 interven-
ing at each step has the potential to improve
populationwide blood pressure control.49
Improving the detection of hypertension is
potential low-hanging fruit for achieving popu-
lationwide blood pressure improvements be-
cause hypertension screening is comparatively
easier and more affordable than interventions
targeted at other steps of the care cascadesuch
as interventions to improve linkage to care fol-
lowing a positive screening or improving treat-
ment initiation and adherence. The main contri-
bution of our study is that we examined whether
home-based hypertension screening alone could
result in meaningful improvements in blood
pressure control without devoting additional
resources to addressing the more complex steps
of the care cascade.
We found that home-based screening may
need to be combined with interventions that ad-
dress other care cascade steps to result in cost-
effective and populationwide improvements in
blood pressure control. For example, decentral-
izing hypertension care to community health
workers may be a promising strategy for improv-
ing linkage to health facilities and treatment
initiation and adherence following a positive
household hypertension screening.
At the health facility level, improving the qual-
ity of hypertension care may ensure that people
understand the importance of blood pressure
control, how to control their blood pressure,
and how often they need to have follow-up visits.
Exhibit 4
Two-year changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP) among South African adults ages 30 and older, by sex, age,
and schooling, 200817
SOURCE Authorsanalysis of data from the 2008, 201011, 2012, 2014015, and 2017 waves of the National Income Dynamics Study.
NOTES The error bars represent 95 percent confidence intervals. The estimates use robust standard errors that are clustered at the
individual level. The estimate for more than secondary schoolingfor women in the systolic blood pressure sample was omitted
because of a small sample size.
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This may result in a greater share of people initi-
ating treatment and ultimately achieving blood
pressure control.
Lastly, achieving blood pressure control for
hypertensive patients requires several repeated
visits to ensure that medicines are appropriately
dosed and to monitor blood pressure over time.
Health information systems have the potential to
alleviate the burden of needing multiple visits for
both patients and providers by tracking which
patients need to see a provider, updating physi-
cians about patientscurrent drug regimens, and
automatically reminding patients not to miss
visits.
Conclusion
Home-based hypertension screening may be a
promising strategy for reducing raised blood
pressure in low- and middle-income countries.
However, further work is needed to ensure that
such strategies have maximum reach and im-
pact. Developing and testing interventions to
maximize the proportion of individuals who
achieve hypertension control following a home-
based screening is a critical next step for both
research and policy.
An earlier version of this article was
presented at the Annual Meeting of the
Society for Epidemiologic Research in
Minneapolis, Minnesota, June 20, 2019.
Michael Garber was supported by a
grant from the National Heart, Lung, and
Blood Institute (Grant No.
F31HL143900). The content is solely
the responsibility of the authors and
does not necessarily represent the
official views of the National Institutes
of Health. Till Bärnighausen was
supported by the Alexander von
Humboldt University Professor Award.
Nikkil Sudharsanan and Simiao Chen
made equal contributions and are joint
first authors.
NOTES
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Global Health Policy
132 Health Affairs January 2020 39:1
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... Population-based screening is typically a "light touch" intervention, in which individuals are informed of their hypertension status and encouraged to consult a physician for treatment. However, the available evidence has shown mixed results regarding the effect of simply communicating a new diagnosis on medium-term behavioral changes and health improvements, both in the case of hypertension [4][5][6][7][8][9] and other diseases [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Studies in China and South Africa found that hypertension screening and counseling reduced BP and improved lifestyle outcomes at 2 years [4][5][6][7]. ...
... However, the available evidence has shown mixed results regarding the effect of simply communicating a new diagnosis on medium-term behavioral changes and health improvements, both in the case of hypertension [4][5][6][7][8][9] and other diseases [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Studies in China and South Africa found that hypertension screening and counseling reduced BP and improved lifestyle outcomes at 2 years [4][5][6][7]. However, studies conducted in the United States showed only modest changes in dietary patterns up to 2 years after hypertension diagnosis [8,9]. ...
... This study evaluates the effect of a population-based BP screening intervention on longterm CVD morbidity and mortality in Germany. Like other studies in this context [4][5][6][7], we used a quasi-experimental approach to evaluate the causal effect of the screening using data from a population-based epidemiological study. These methods offer the possibility of deriving estimates of causal impact from observational data in substantially less time and using substantially fewer resources [19], in a context where experimental studies would not be feasible due to ethical and economic reasons [20,21]. ...
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Background Hypertension represents one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality globally. Early detection and treatment of this condition is vital to prevent complications. However, hypertension often goes undetected, and even if detected, not every patient receives adequate treatment. Identifying simple and effective interventions is therefore crucial to fight this problem and allow more patients to receive the treatment they need. Therefore, we aim at investigating the impact of a population-based blood pressure (BP) screening and the subsequent “low-threshold” information treatment on long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods and findings We examined the impact of a BP screening embedded in a population-based cohort study in Germany and subsequent personalized “light touch” information treatment, including a hypertension diagnosis and a recommendation to seek medical attention. We pooled four waves of the KORA study, carried out between 1984 and 1996 ( N = 14,592). Using a sharp multivariate regression discontinuity (RD) design, we estimated the impact of the information treatment on CVD mortality and morbidity over 16.9 years. Additionally, we investigated potential intermediate outcomes, such as hypertension awareness, BP, and behavior after 7 years. No evidence of effect of BP screening was observed on CVD mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.172 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.725, 1.896]) or on any (fatal or nonfatal) long-term CVD event (HR = 1.022 [0.636, 1.641]) for individuals just above (versus below) the threshold for hypertension. Stratification for previous self-reported diagnosis of hypertension at baseline did not reveal any differential effect. The intermediate outcomes, including awareness of hypertension, were also unaffected by the information treatment. However, these results should be interpreted with caution since the analysis might not be sufficiently powered to detect a potential intervention effect. Conclusions The study does not provide evidence of an effect of the assessed BP screening and subsequent information treatment on BP and behavior, but also on long-term CVD mortality and morbidity. Future studies should consider larger datasets to detect possible effects and a shorter follow-up for the intermediate outcomes (i.e., BP and behavior) to detect short-, medium-, and long-term effects of the intervention along the causal pathway.
... Hence, if agebased increases in hypertension are used to create thresholds for targeting care efforts, cross-sectional data may misguide clinical decisions. Cross-sectional studies are also limited in their ability to identify the extent to which enhancing awareness and knowledge about blood pressure will improve blood pressure levels over time [12,13]. Ultimately, only analyses of longitudinal data can provide a better understanding of hypertension as a dynamic process that is interrelated with individual aging and socioeconomic changes. ...
... However, only 17% of hypertensive respondents have attained a measured BP in the normal range. In a related study we have has documented that prior testing-and specifically the receipt of referral letters to health care providers-helped reduce blood pressure, increase diagnoses and update of medication [12] (similar findings have also been shown in South Africa [13]). The blood pressure screening that was conducted as part of the MLSFH-MAC may therefore have been instrumental in achieving improvements in case between 2013 and 2017 ( Figure 4A+B). ...
... Yet, our findings do not provide a bleak picture about hypertension and cardiovascular disease risk in poor aging populations in SSA or elsewhere. In contrast, a recent body of research has started to provide evidence that relatively inexpensive screenings and referrals for hypertension and are effective approach to reduce the gaps in the cascade of care for hypertension [12,13]. Our findings highlight the urgency of building on this recent evidence and expand information about cardiovascular risk, screening for hypertension and available treatments for elevated blood pressure to the global poor. ...
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Background: Hypertension has a rapidly growing disease burden among older persons in low-income countries (LICs) that is often inadequately diagnosed and treated. Yet, most LIC research on hypertension is based on cross-sectional data that does not allow inferences about the onset or persistence of hypertension, its correlates, and changes in hypertension as individuals become older. Data and methods: The Mature Adults Cohort of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH-MAC) is used to provide among the first panel analyses of hypertension for older individuals in a sub-Saharan LIC using blood pressure measurements obtained in 2013 and 2017. Findings: High blood pressure is very common among mature adults aged 45+ in rural Malawi, and hypertension is more prevalent among older as compared to middle-aged respondents. Yet, in panel analyses for 2013-17, we find no increase in the prevalence of hypertension as individuals become older. Hypertension often persists over time, and the onset of hypertension is predicted by factors such as being overweight/obese, or being in poor physical health. Otherwise, however, hypertension has few socioeconomic predictors. There is also no gender differences in the level, onset or persistence in hypertension. While hypertension is associated with several negative health or socioeconomic consequences in longitudinal analyses, cascade-of-care analyses document significant gaps in the diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that hypertension and related high cardiovascular risks are widespread, persistent, and often not diagnosed or treated in this rural sub-Saharan population of older individuals. Prevalence, onset and persistence of hypertension are common across all subgroups-including, importantly, both women and men. While age is an important predictor of hypertension risk, even in middle ages 45-55 years, hypertension is already widespread. Hypertension among adults aged 45+ in Malawi is thus more similar to a "generalized epidemic" than in high-income countries where cardiovascular risk has strong socioeconomic gradients and untreated hypertension particularly prevalent in vulnerable subsets of older persons.
... Total economic loss for the 144 countries with complete data and the 60 countries with missing data are shown in table 1, with the former group collectively accounting for 92·7% of the global projected population and 95·8% of the global projected GDP during 2020-50. Other discounted estimates and other estimates with randomly sampled parameters are shown in appendix 3 (pp [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24]. Of all countries, China had the largest absolute economic burden of COPD, followed by the USA and India (table 1). ...
... For example, the effectiveness of community-based COPD screening is underexplored in some countries, even though such programmes have shown promising results with low costs. 22 As a recent systematic review showed, there is "no direct evidence available to determine the benefits and harms of screening asymptomatic adults for COPD". 23 Because of the current scarcity of evidence on community-based COPD screening, not a single country worldwide has adopted such a programme at scale, and major guidelines (eg, by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease and the US Preventive Services Task Force) generally suggest conducting pulmonary function tests only for symptomatic patients. ...
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Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death worldwide and imposes a substantial economic burden. Gaining a thorough understanding of the economic implications of COPD is an important prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to estimate the macroeconomic burden of COPD for each country and establish its distribution across world regions. Methods In this health-augmented macroeconomic modelling study we estimated the macroeconomic burden of COPD for 204 countries and territories over the period 2020–50. The model accounted for (1) the effect of COPD mortality and morbidity on labour supply, (2) age and sex specific differences in education and work experience among those affected by COPD, and (3) the impact of COPD treatment costs on physical capital accumulation. We obtained data from various public sources including the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the World Bank database, and the literature. The macroeconomic burden of COPD was assessed by comparing gross domestic product (GDP) between a scenario projecting disease prevalence based on current estimates and a counterfactual scenario with zero COPD prevalence from 2020 to 2050. Findings Our findings suggest that COPD will cost the world economy INT$4·326 trillion (uncertainty interval 3·327–5·516; at constant 2017 prices) in 2020–50. This economic effect is equivalent to a yearly tax of 0·111% (0·085–0·141) on global GDP. China and the USA face the largest economic burdens from COPD, accounting for INT$1·363 trillion (uncertainty interval 1·034–1·801) and INT$1·037 trillion (0·868–1·175), respectively. Interpretation The macroeconomic burden of COPD is large and unequally distributed across countries, world regions, and income levels. Our study stresses the urgent need to invest in global efforts to curb the health and economic burdens of COPD. Investments in effective interventions against COPD do not represent a burden but could instead provide substantial economic returns in the foreseeable future.
... CHWs are effective in providing community members with hypertension guidance and helping residents improve chronic disease conditions (Kangovi et al. 2017). Further, home-based blood pressure screening allows for identifying potential blood pressure problems and achieving population-level blood pressure improvements in South Africa (Sudharsanan et al. 2020). A home-based blood pressure screening in Kenya proved to be a feasible strategy for screening a broad array of community members for hypertension and diabetes and identifying a large pool of high-risk individuals (Pastakia et al. 2013). ...
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Background Low–middle-income countries (LMICs) face increasing burdens from non-communicable disease (NCDs) requiring primary care task shifting to community health workers (CHWs). This study explored community members' perceptions of NCD-focused, CHW-led home visits in a historically disadvantaged township of South Africa. Methods Trained CHWs visited community member homes, performing blood pressure and physical activity (PA) screenings, followed by brief counselling and a satisfaction survey. Semi-structured interviews were conducted within 3 days of the visit to learn about their experiences. Results CHWs visited 173 households, with 153 adult community members consenting to participate (88.4%). Participants reported that it was easy to understand CHW-delivered information (97%), their questions were answered well (100%), and they would request home service again (93%). Twenty-eight follow-up interviews revealed four main themes: 1) acceptance of CHW visits, 2) openness to counselling, 3) satisfaction with screening and a basic understanding of the results, and 4) receptiveness to the PA advice. Conclusion Community members viewed CHW-led home visits as an acceptable and feasible method for providing NCD-focused healthcare services in an under-resourced community. Expanding primary care reach through CHWs offers more accessible and individualized care, reducing barriers for individuals in under-resourced communities to access support for NCD risk reduction.
... Reducing noncommunicable diseases could yield substantial economic benefits at a comparatively low cost. Taxing tobacco sales and investing in health screening are examples of effective policies in this regard (Bloom et al., 2011;Chen et al., 2019aChen et al., , 2019bChen et al., , 2021Zhou et al., 2022;Sudharsanan et al., 2020). Thus, these policies could go a long way in helping to improve overall well-being. ...
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We measure well-being across 193 countries from 1990 to 2019 using a new indicator: healthy lifetime income (HLI). Apart from the income component as captured by standard per capita gross domestic product, HLI incorporates health as a second important component. Overall, HLI can be interpreted as the income of the average person in an economy during the years in which the person is in good health. We show that HLI has particular strengths as compared with other measures such as the Human Development Index. These include requiring only easily accessible data for its construction, having an immediate economic interpretation and unit of measurement, not needing the application of arbitrary weights of subcomponents, and not being bounded from above. As compared with using per capita gross domestic product as a metric for well-being, we find that countries with better population health tend to fare better in the rankings. This provides a rationale for investments in health and helps shift the focus from material well-being (as an instrumental indicator of well-being) toward health (as an intrinsic goal).
... Previous studies related to HIV [14][15][16][17][18][19] and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] have demonstrated successful use of self-specimen collection mechanisms. Other successful examples of self-specimen collection outside of HIV and STI management include tuberculosis [30], hypertension and cardiovascular health [31,32] and diabetes (in existence since the 1970s) [33]. Acceptability of home-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) monitoring also has been shown recently in the United States [34]. ...
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Frequent viral load testing is necessary during analytical treatment interruptions (ATIs) in HIV cure-directed clinical trials, though such may be burdensome and inconvenient to trial participants. We implemented a national, cross-sectional survey in the United States to examine the acceptability of a novel home-based peripheral blood collection device for HIV viral load testing. Between June and August 2021, we distributed an online survey to people with HIV (PWH) and community members, biomedical HIV cure researchers and HIV care providers. We performed descriptive analyses to summarize the results. We received 73 survey responses, with 51 from community members, 12 from biomedical HIV cure researchers and 10 from HIV care providers. Of those, 51 (70%) were cisgender men and 50 (68%) reported living with HIV. Most (>80% overall) indicated that the device would be helpful during ATI trials and they would feel comfortable using it themselves or recommending it to their patients/participants. Of the 50 PWH, 42 (84%) indicated they would use the device if they were participating in an ATI trial and 27 (54%) also expressed a Citation: Dubé, K.; Eskaf, S.; Hastie, E.; Agarwal, H.; Henley, L.; Roebuck, C.; Carter, W.B.; Dee, L.; Taylor, J.; Mapp, D.; et al.
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Background: Hypertension and diabetes are global health challenges requiring effective management to mitigate their considerable burden. The key to successful management of hypertension and diabetes requires the completion of a sequence of stages, collectively termed the care cascade. Objective: This scoping review aimed to describe the characteristics of studies on hypertension and diabetes care cascade and identify potential interventions as well as factors that impact each stage of the care cascade. Methods: The method of this scoping review is guided by Arksey and O'Malley's framework. We systematically searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science using terms pertinent to hypertension, diabetes and specific stages of the care cascade. Articles published after 2011 and included all studies that described the completion of at least one stage of the care cascade of hypertension and diabetes were included in this scoping review. Study selection was independently performed by two paired authors. Descriptive statistics were used to elucidate key patterns and trends. Inductive content analysis was performed to generate themes regarding barriers and facilitators to improving the care cascade in hypertension and diabetes management. Results: A total of 128 studies were included, with 42% conducted in high-income countries. Of them, 47 (36.7%) focused on hypertension care while 63 (49.2%) on diabetes, and only 18 (14.1%) articles reported on the care of both diseases. The majority (75%) were observational in design. Cascade stages documented in the literature were awareness, screening, diagnosis, linked to care, treatment, adherence to medication and control. Most studies focus on the stages of treatment and control while a relative paucity of studies examine the stages before treatment initiation (59% vs. 41%). A wide spectrum of interventions aimed at enhancing hypertension and diabetes care cascade were identified. The analysis unveiled a multitude of individual-level and system-level factors influencing the successful completion of cascade sequence in both high-income and low and middle-income settings. Conclusions: This review offers a comprehensive understanding of hypertension and diabetes management, emphasising the pivotal factors that impact each stage of care. Future research should focus on upstream cascade stages and context-specific interventions to optimise patient retention and care outcomes. Clinicaltrial: Not applicable.
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Background HIV cure-directed clinical trials using analytical treatment interruptions (ATIs) require participants to adhere to frequent monitoring visits for viral load tests. Novel viral load monitoring strategies are needed to decrease participant burden during ATIs. Objective To examine acceptability of a novel home-based blood collection device for viral load testing in the context of two ongoing ATI trials in Philadelphia, PA, United States. Methods From January 2021 to February 2022, participants completed three in-depth interviews via teleconference during their participation in an ATI: (1) within two weeks of enrollment in the device study, (2) approximately four weeks after beginning to use the device, and (3) within two weeks of the end of the ATI when ART was re-initiated. We used conventional content analysis to analyze the data. Results We recruited 17 participants: 15 were cisgender males, 1 cisgender female, and 1 transgender woman. We observed an overall 87% success rate in drawing blood with the device from home collection and found overall high acceptance of the device. A mean of 91.5 devices per participant were used for home-based blood collection. Most PWH viewed the device as relatively convenient, painless, easy to use, and a simple solution to frequent blood draws. The main challenge encountered was the inability to completely fill up devices with blood in some cases. Most participants reported positive experiences with mailing blood samples and could see themselves using the device on a regular basis outside of ATIs. Conclusions Our study showed participant valued the novel home-based peripheral blood collection for viral load testing in the context of ATI trials. More research will be necessary to optimize implementation of the device and to assess whether blood collected can reliably measure viral loads in the context of ATI trials.
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Background: People with HIV (PWH) and community members have advocated for the development of a home-based viral load test device that could make analytical treatment interruptions (ATIs) less burdensome. Objective: We assessed community acceptability of a novel home-based viral load test device. Methods: In 2021, we conducted 15 interviews and 3 virtual focus groups with PWH involved in HIV cure research. We used conventional thematic analysis to analyze the data. Results: PWH viewed the home-based viral load test device as a critical adjunct in ongoing HIV cure trials with ATIs. The ability to test for viral load at home on demand would alleviate anxiety around being off ART. Participants drew parallels with glucometers used for diabetes. A preference was expressed for the home-based test to clearly indicate whether one was detectable or undetectable for HIV to mitigate risk of HIV transmission to partners. Perceived advantages of the device included convenience, sense of control, and no puncturing of veins. Perceived concerns were possible physical marks, user errors and navigating the logistics of mailing samples to a laboratory and receiving test results. Participants expressed mixed effects on stigma, such as helping normalize HIV, but increased potential for inadvertent disclosure of HIV status or ATI participation. Increasing pluri-potency of the device beyond viral load testing (e.g., CD4+ count test) would increase its utility. Participants suggested pairing the device with telemedicine and mobile health technologies. Conclusions: If proven effective, the home-based viral load test device will become a critical adjunct in HIV cure research and HIV care.
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Objective To estimate the causal impact of community based blood pressure screening on subsequent blood pressure levels among older adults in China. Design Regression discontinuity analysis using data from a national cohort study. Setting 2011-12 and 2014 waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, a national cohort of older adults in China. Participants 3899 older adults who had previously undiagnosed hypertension. Intervention Community based hypertension screening among older adults in 2011-12. Main outcome measure Blood pressure two years after initial screening. Results The intervention reduced systolic blood pressure: −6.3 mm Hg in the model without covariates (95% confidence interval −11.2 to −1.3) and −8.3 mm Hg (−13.6 to −3.1) in the model that adjusts additionally for demographic, social, and behavioural covariates. The impact on diastolic blood pressure was smaller and non-significant in all models. The results were similar when alternative functional forms were used to estimate the impact and the bandwidths around the intervention threshold were changed. The results did not vary by demographic and social subgroups. Conclusions Community based hypertension screening and encouraging people with raised blood pressure to seek care and adopt blood pressure lowering behaviour changes could have important long term impact on systolic blood pressure at the population level. This approach could address the high burden of cardiovascular diseases in China and other countries with large unmet need for hypertension diagnosis and care.
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Health systems in sub-Saharan Africa are facing an ongoing HIV epidemic and increasing burden of noncommunicable disease. With the focus shifting to the development of comprehensive primary health care and chronic disease treatment, multidisease modeling is integral to estimating future health care needs. We extended an established agent-based model of HIV transmission to include hypertension in two rural settings: KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and western Kenya. We estimated that from 2018 to 2028 hypertension prevalence would increase from 40 percent to 46 percent in KwaZulu-Natal and from 29 percent to 35 percent in western Kenya, while HIV prevalence is stabilizing and predicted to decrease. As the health system burden in sub-Saharan Africa is changing, innovative chronic disease treatment and the broadening of successful programs, such as integrated HIV and noncommunicable disease care, are necessary to reach universal health care coverage.
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Over the coming decades, middle-income countries are expected to undergo substantial demographic changes. We estimated the consequences of these changes on the number of adults in need of hypertension care between 2015 and 2050 using nationally representative household-survey data collected in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa (N=770 121). To reflect unmet need for healthcare, we defined hypertension as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg regardless of treatment status. Using a mathematical disease projection equation, we calculated the change in the number of individuals in need of hypertension care in each country that was due to changes in population size, age composition, and age-specific prevalence under various epidemiological scenarios. If the current age-specific prevalence schedule of hypertension remains unchanged until 2050, demographic changes alone will increase the number of adults in need of hypertension care by 319.7 million individuals, ranging from a relative growth of 55% in China to 151% in Mexico. Even if the age-specific prevalence of hypertension is reduced by 25% by 2050 among adults aged ≥40 years, the number of individuals in need of hypertension care will still increase by 145.9 million individuals, with relative increases ranging from 16% in China to 88% in Mexico. Overall, our results suggest that coming demographic changes in middle-income countries will overpower even ideal prevention efforts. Middle-income countries will need to massively expand healthcare services for aging-related diseases, such as hypertension, if they are to meet the virtually inevitable future increase in care needs for these conditions.
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Objectives The expanding burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally will require novel public health strategies. Community-based screening has been promoted to augment efficiency of diagnostic services, but few data are available on the downstream impact of such programmes. We sought to assess the impact of a home-based blood pressure screening programme on linkage to hypertension care in rural South Africa. Setting We conducted home-based blood pressure screening withinin a population cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal, using the WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) protocol. Participants Individuals meeting criteria for raised blood pressure (≥140 systolic or ≥90 diastolic averaged over two readings) were referred to local health clinics and included in this analysis. We defined linkage to care based on self-report of presentation to clinic for hypertension during the next 2 years of cohort observation. We estimated the population proportion of successful linkage to care with inverse probability sampling weights, and fit multivariable logistic regression models to identify predictors of linkage following a positive hypertension screen. Results Of 11 694 individuals screened, 14.6% (n=1706) were newly diagnosed with elevated pressure. 26.9% (95% CI 24.5% to 29.4%) of those sought hypertension care in the following 2 years, and 38.1% (95% CI 35.6% to 40.7%) did so within 5 years. Women (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.41, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.45), those of older age (aOR 11.49, 95% CI 5.87 to 22.46, for 45–59 years vs <30) and those unemployed (aOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.65) were more likely to have linked to care. Conclusions Linkage to care after home-based identification of elevated blood pressure was rare in rural South Africa, particularly among younger individuals, men and the employed. Improved understanding of barriers and facilitators to NCD care is needed to enhance the effectiveness of blood pressure screening in the region.
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Background Recent findings suggest a decline in mean blood pressure and prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension in the South African adult population in the last decade, in contrast with the increase previously observed. This study aimed at quantifying the contribution of antihypertensive treatment to this decline. Methods We used data from the four waves of the National Income Dynamics Study between 2008 and 2015 and analysed changes in systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension among South African adults (15 years and above). We compared the observed changes with a counterfactual scenario in which the impact of antihypertensive treatment was estimated by censored regression and removed, with and without adjustment for BMI, waist circumference, alcohol use and smoking. Results During the study period, the prevalence of antihypertensive treatment rose from 13.1% to 17.6% among women and from 5.3% to 8.2% among men. Concurrently–despite worsening trends in major biobehavioural risk factors for elevated blood pressure–mean SBP decreased in both genders, DBP decreased among women and was stable among men. The odds of uncontrolled hypertension decreased by 4%/year among women and 1%/year among men. After removing the treatment effect, the downward trend in the odds of uncontrolled hypertension was reduced to 1%/year among women and completely offset among men. Among those 55 years and older, but not among younger subjects, treatment effects also explained most of the observed decreases in mean SBP and DBP. Conclusions Among South African adults, we infer that diffusion of antihypertensive treatment contributed substantially to the downward trend in the prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension observed between 2008 and 2015. The marked decrease in SBP and uncontrolled hypertension found among younger participants could not be explained by treatment nor by the changing distribution of the measured risk factors available in this study, and requires further investigation.
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Background Antihypertensive medicines are effective in reducing adverse cardiovascular events. Our aim was to compare hypertension awareness, treatment, and control, and how they have changed over time, in highincome countries. Methods We used data from people aged 40–79 years who participated in 123 national health examination surveys from 1976 to 2017 in 12 high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the USA. We calculated the proportion of participants with hypertension, which was defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or more, or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or more, or being on pharmacological treatment for hypertension, who were aware of their condition, who were treated, and whose hypertension was controlled (ie, lower than 140/90 mm Hg). Findings Data from 526 336 participants were used in these analyses. In their most recent surveys, Canada, South Korea, Australia, and the UK had the lowest prevalence of hypertension, and Finland the highest. In the 1980s and early 1990s, treatment rates were at most 40% and control rates were less than 25% in most countries and age and sex groups. Over the time period assessed, hypertension awareness and treatment increased and control rate improved in all 12 countries, with South Korea and Germany experiencing the largest improvements. Most of the observed increase occurred in the 1990s and early-mid 2000s, having plateaued since in most countries. In their most recent surveys, Canada, Germany, South Korea, and the USA had the highest rates of awareness, treatment, and control, whereas Finland, Ireland, Japan, and Spain had the lowest. Even in the best performing countries, treatment coverage was at most 80% and control rates were less than 70%. Interpretation Hypertension awareness, treatment, and control have improved substantially in high-income countries since the 1980s and 1990s. However, control rates have plateaued in the past decade, at levels lower than those in highquality hypertension programmes. There is substantial variation across countries in the rates of hypertension awareness, treatment, and control.
Article
Background: Evidence from nationally representative studies in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on where in the hypertension care continuum patients are lost to care is sparse. This information, however, is essential for effective targeting of interventions by health services and monitoring progress in improving hypertension care. We aimed to determine the cascade of hypertension care in 44 LMICs-and its variation between countries and population groups-by dividing the progression in the care process, from need of care to successful treatment, into discrete stages and measuring the losses at each stage. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level population-based data from 44 LMICs. We first searched for nationally representative datasets from the WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) from 2005 or later. If a STEPS dataset was not available for a LMIC (or we could not gain access to it), we conducted a systematic search for survey datasets; the inclusion criteria in these searches were that the survey was done in 2005 or later, was nationally representative for at least three 10-year age groups older than 15 years, included measured blood pressure data, and contained data on at least two hypertension care cascade steps. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, or reported use of medication for hypertension. Among those with hypertension, we calculated the proportion of individuals who had ever had their blood pressure measured; had been diagnosed with hypertension; had been treated for hypertension; and had achieved control of their hypertension. We weighted countries proportionally to their population size when determining this hypertension care cascade at the global and regional level. We disaggregated the hypertension care cascade by age, sex, education, household wealth quintile, body-mass index, smoking status, country, and region. We used linear regression to predict, separately for each cascade step, a country's performance based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, allowing us to identify countries whose performance fell outside of the 95% prediction interval. Findings: Our pooled dataset included 1 100 507 participants, of whom 192 441 (17·5%) had hypertension. Among those with hypertension, 73·6% of participants (95% CI 72·9-74·3) had ever had their blood pressure measured, 39·2% of participants (38·2-40·3) had been diagnosed with hypertension, 29·9% of participants (28·6-31·3) received treatment, and 10·3% of participants (9·6-11·0) achieved control of their hypertension. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean generally achieved the best performance relative to their predicted performance based on GDP per capita, whereas countries in sub-Saharan Africa performed worst. Bangladesh, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, and Peru performed significantly better on all care cascade steps than predicted based on GDP per capita. Being a woman, older, more educated, wealthier, and not being a current smoker were all positively associated with attaining each of the four steps of the care cascade. Interpretation: Our study provides important evidence for the design and targeting of health policies and service interventions for hypertension in LMICs. We show at what steps and for whom there are gaps in the hypertension care process in each of the 44 countries in our study. We also identified countries in each world region that perform better than expected from their economic development, which can direct policy makers to important policy lessons. Given the high disease burden caused by hypertension in LMICs, nationally representative hypertension care cascades, as constructed in this study, are an important measure of progress towards achieving universal health coverage. Funding: Harvard McLennan Family Fund, Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
Article
Background: Antihypertensive medicines are effective in reducing adverse cardiovascular events. Our aim was to compare hypertension awareness, treatment, and control, and how they have changed over time, in high-income countries. Methods: We used data from people aged 40-79 years who participated in 123 national health examination surveys from 1976 to 2017 in 12 high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the USA. We calculated the proportion of participants with hypertension, which was defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or more, or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or more, or being on pharmacological treatment for hypertension, who were aware of their condition, who were treated, and whose hypertension was controlled (ie, lower than 140/90 mm Hg). Findings: Data from 526 336 participants were used in these analyses. In their most recent surveys, Canada, South Korea, Australia, and the UK had the lowest prevalence of hypertension, and Finland the highest. In the 1980s and early 1990s, treatment rates were at most 40% and control rates were less than 25% in most countries and age and sex groups. Over the time period assessed, hypertension awareness and treatment increased and control rate improved in all 12 countries, with South Korea and Germany experiencing the largest improvements. Most of the observed increase occurred in the 1990s and early-mid 2000s, having plateaued since in most countries. In their most recent surveys, Canada, Germany, South Korea, and the USA had the highest rates of awareness, treatment, and control, whereas Finland, Ireland, Japan, and Spain had the lowest. Even in the best performing countries, treatment coverage was at most 80% and control rates were less than 70%. Interpretation: Hypertension awareness, treatment, and control have improved substantially in high-income countries since the 1980s and 1990s. However, control rates have plateaued in the past decade, at levels lower than those in high-quality hypertension programmes. There is substantial variation across countries in the rates of hypertension awareness, treatment, and control. Funding: Wellcome Trust and WHO.
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Over the past 5 decades, the randomized clinical trial has become the gold standard for evaluation of the risks and benefits of new interventions, including drugs, medical devices, and surgical procedures.
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Background: There are few estimates of the potential gains in adult mortality from population-level improvements in systolic blood pressure (SBP) in a major low-and-middle income country (LMIC). Using nationally representative cohort data from Indonesia-the third most populous LMIC- I estimated the gains in adult life expectancy from improving SBP control among adults ages 40 and above and assessed the benefits among richer and poorer subpopulations. Methods: I used longitudinal data from 10 085 adults ages 40 and above (75 288 person-age observations) enrolled in the 2007 and 2014/15 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey. Next, I used Poisson-regression parametric g-formulas to directly estimate age-specific mortality rates under different blood pressure control strategies and constructed period life expectancies using the observed and counterfactual mortality rates. Results: Fully controlling SBP to a population mean of under 125 mmHg was associated with a life expectancy gain at age 40 of 5.3 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.2, 7.4] for men and 6.0 years (95% CI: 3.6, 8.4) for women. The gains associated with blood pressure control were similar for both rich and poor subpopulations. The life expectancy gains under scenarios with imperfect blood pressure control and coverage were more modest in size and ranged between 1 and 2.5 years for a large fraction of the scenarios. Conclusions: In Indonesia, elevated SBP carries a large mortality burden, though the results suggest that realistic efforts to address hypertension will likely produce more modest gains in life expectancy. Comparing improvements from different strategies and identifying the most cost-effective ways to introduce and scale up hypertension interventions is a critical focus for both research and policy.