Structured Abstract:
Introduction
The dynamics, nature, obscurity, destructiveness, and global influence of the events experienced today have brought the ‘crisis’ universe to a different dimension. Apart from the severity, speed, frequency,
complexity, and qualitative difference of the crises experienced, they have become specifically linked to and triggering each other on a global scale. From
... [Show full abstract] this point of view, it is seen that the ‘Butterfly Effect ' has ceased to be a theoretical debate and should be answered with a holistic approach and policies on a global scale. Humanity is no longer struggling with a single catastrophe, but with a chain of crises triggerring each other like dominoes (Cooper&Coxe, 2005; Lagadec, 2007).
Covid-19 is one of the biggest crises the global world has experienced. In this process, developments stressed the importance of states' globally working together on one hand, and on the other hand, they have shown once again the importance of being ready to the competency of the crisis on a national basis, planning, and crisis communication. It has become vital to be able to take precautions from this day as a nation and to be prepared behaviourally and cognitively, both as decision-makers and as a society, by predicting future crises. One of the most important tools that can provide this is ‘Crisis scenarios'.
Literature
What is the crisis?
The word crisis, which comes from the Greek words “krisis” and “krinein”, used by Hippocrates to express the turning point of a disease, the decisive moment in the course of the disease. The word krinein means reasoning, separating, and deciding (Sellnow and Seeger, 2013:8). The English word “crisis” has passed to Turkish.
Then we can describe the crisis as; as “It is an unusual state of non-compliance with the internal/external environment balance of the
organization, which may prevent the organization from achieving its goals, which may cause great harm or cause it to disappear completely”.
What are the crisis scenarios?
In the current Turkish dictionary, the scenario is described as: " the written text of theater play, drama, series film, etc. showing the scenes and flow of the works” (https://sozluk.gov.tr/). Cambridge English
Dictionary describes the scenario as “is a description of possible future actions or events”, emphasizes the possibility of future actions and events
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/scenario).
It can be said that the crisis scenario is not just a written text, a drill, or a pool of possibilities. Then we can describe the crisis scenarios as;
“According to crisis risk assessment, they are integrated, holistic, instructive practices that are prepared scientifically and organized in a planned manner following current data, creating a state of behavioral and cognitive readiness”.
Crisis scenarios in Turkey and USA
Crisis scenarios play a major role in crisis management and unexpected events (Walker, 1995). For the first time, After World War II, the importance of the systematic use of scenarios to clarify thinking about the future emerged. It was prepared by the U.S. Department of Defense in the 1950s and used by the RAND Corporation as a method for military planning. It was then widely used in social forecasting, public policy analysis, and decision making in the 1960s (Walker, 1995).
In the United States, crisis scenarios related to such situations are prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). FEMA's National Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Report, published in July 2019, features a COVID-19-like outbreak scenario. It is part of a series of nine screenplays played by FEMA. Predictions in the scenario (FEMA, 2019) have been verified and shown success on a large scale (Naylor, 2020). No finding has been reached regarding the preparation of crisis scenarios in
Turkey by any public institution. Besides, no academic study on crisis scenarios in Turkey has been found.
In Turkey, which is more at the level and scale of the exercise, some applications do not meet the crisis scenario (HAP - Hospital Disaster and Emergency Response Plan, etc.). This situation was clearly stated
in the Global Health Security Index report's which was funded by Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation and published in 2019 crisis communication and disaster plan part related to Turkey. This report measures and compare 195 Global Health Security Index's international health regulations party countries' proficiency in a
possible epidemic (Global Health Security Index, 2019).
Model Proposal For Crisis Scenarios
Crisis scenarios provide a proactive measure against possible crises, creating a state of cognitive and behavioral readiness for danger both in decision-makers, practitioners, and in society in the relevant public and private institutions. This state contributes to the execution of a rational process by minimizing the shock, trauma, and possible errors in decision-making caused by the crisis.
The 6 main phases to be followed when preparing crisis scenarios is as follows.
1- Crisis risk analysis,
2- Creating crisis scenarios,
3- Theoretical education,
4- Preparation of simulations and application of scenario,
5- Measurement and evaluation,
6- Editing and updating.
Although the definition and content of the crisis for the public and private sector vary according to many different elements, these stages of crisis scenarios are adaptable to almost any organization.
1. Stage: Crisis Risk Analysis
It is the most important stage of the crisis scenario. An error at this stage could affect the entire scenario. Crisis risk is related to the possibility of a crisis in organizations and the severity of these possibilities.
2. Stage: Creating Crisis Scenarios
A good screenwriter should also know the characters, places, events, and their connections with each other.
Main Elements of Crisis Scenarios
1. Story
Not every story has a scenario, but every scenario has a story.
2. Characters
In crisis scenarios, the characters are made up of people and institutions with which the institution is or may be related.
3. Time
Time is one of the most important elements that can affect the entire crisis scenario.
4. Locations
The stories in a crisis scenario may be set in one or more locations.
3. Stage: Theoretical Education
During the theoretical training phase, education is given to everyone who will take part in the crisis scenario. Although not included in the scenario, other personnel may also be included to have information.
4. Stage: Preparation of simulation and implementation of the scenario
Crisis simulation is a simulation process in which a realistic copy of the crisis process is created and implemented under the scenario.
5. Stage: Measurement and Evaluation
Measurement and evaluation must be done for all phases of crisis scenarios.
6. Stage: Editing and Updating
As with all risks, the risks that the institution will face can vary according to the time, conditions, internal and external dynamics of the institution, geography, technology, environmental conditions, political, political, economic, etc.
Conclusion and Recommendations
Crisis scenarios should be created and implemented in our country for the global and national crises that may occur in the age of crises we live in. Public institutions need to have full knowledge of how to prepare, implement, train, measure, and evaluate crisis scenarios.
It can be developed annually by publishing in settings such as the booklet, web, digital, etc. In line with the guidelines, scenarios can be revised by relevant public and private sector organizations to prepare for outbreaks such as pandemics and other crises. In terms of crisis management and crisis communication, institutions can incorporate them into their processes and implement them at recommended intervals.