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Letters
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0728-x
Coal-exit health and environmental damage
reductions outweigh economic impacts
Sebastian Rauner 1 ✉ , Nico Bauer 1, Alois Dirnaichner1, Rita Van Dingenen2, Chris Mutel3 and
Gunnar Luderer 1,4
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany. 2European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. 3Laboratory
for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Villigen, Switzerland. 4Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
✉e-mail: rauner@pik-potsdam.de
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
In the format provided by the authors and unedited.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange
Coal exit health and environmental damage reductions
outweigh economic impacts
Sebastian Raunera, Nico Bauera, Alois Dirnaichnera, Rita Van Dingenenb,
Chris Mutelc, Gunnar Luderera,d
aPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association,
P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
b
Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Via Enrico Fermi 2749,
I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
cLaboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), CH-5232 Villigen,
Switzerland
dChair of Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135,
10623, Berlin, Germany
Keywords: coal exit, coal phase-out, sustainable development, co-benefits, life
cycle assessment
1
SI-1 Supporting Information
SI-1.1. Methods
Figure SI-1:
|Modelling framework.
Modelling framework of the cause effect chain of
energy-economy-climate to monetized health and environmental impacts. The Integrated
Assessment Energy-Economy Climate model REMIND is the starting point of the modelling
chain. The policy cost are directly calculated from REMIND through climate policy induced
consumption losses relative to the no policy Reference scenario. The right path represents the
specific air pollution human health model chain, including the simplified Chemical Transport
model and spatial population, urbanization and demography data. The middle path illustrates
the Life Cycle Assessment model which covers non-air pollution human health impacts and
ecosystem damages.
Spatial trends
Air pollution emissions
Energy-Economy-Climate (REMIND)
PM2.5, O3
SO2, NOx, BC,
OM, NH3,
VOC, CH4,
PM
Human Health
Monetary impacts
Chemical transport
model
Life Cycle Assessment
Policy cost Ecosystem Damage
Economy
Energy
Climate
Spa�al explicit impacts
2
Table SI-1:
|Value transfer coefficients.
Value transfer coefficients of the Reference case
for EUR (Europe), CHN (China), IND (India), JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS (other Asia),
MEA (Middle East, North Africa, central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin America), AFR
(Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of the World) in 2015,
2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050. They are applied to the base value of human health 118421.1 US$
per VDALY and the ecosystem damages of 111,486,487.2 US$ per species.yr.
region 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
LAM 0.500152 0.386202 0.513897 0.666233 0.858463
OAS 0.289746 0.343485 0.452139 0.580002 0.73834
AFR 0.104607 0.108863 0.155965 0.221625 0.320949
EUR 0.954087 1.025294 1.212767 1.429472 1.654259
ROW 1.084928 0.814886 0.962879 1.137768 1.333285
MEA 0.519368 0.575502 0.746901 0.925411 1.109441
CHN 1.275278 1.422803 1.669215 1.891424 2.090629
IND 0.106028 0.132382 0.230956 0.360532 0.527048
JPN 1.169837 1.216918 1.354231 1.474302 1.606203
USA 1.545993 1.652051 1.840732 1.976144 2.083858
RUS 0.55785 0.688134 1.015309 1.352588 1.6276
Figure SI-2:
|Global Exposure Mortality Model@Burnett2018.
Integrated exposure
response functions describing the relationship between annual mean ambient
P M2.5
and
relative risk of the five disease endpoints considered. Shading indicate the uncertainty ranges
around the employed medium estimate.
1
2
3
4
5
0 50 100 150
mean annual PM2.5 concentration [µg/m³]
relative risk
acute respiratory lung infection
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
ischemic heart disease
lung cancer
cerebrovascular disease (stroke)
3
SI-1.2. Energy-Economy-Climate Modeling
Table SI-2:
|Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE).
Global average generation LCOE in
$/MWh for selected technologies of a new power plant build in the time step. LCOEs do
not include a
CO2
price and other taxes but storage cost associated with renewable energy
penetration.
Scenario Power generation technology 2015 2030 2050
Reference Coal|Pulverized Coal|w/o CCS 63.81 69.15 77.85
NDC Coal|Pulverized Coal|w/o CCS 63.81 68.72 74.88
Coal exit Coal|Pulverized Coal|w/o CCS 61.85 60.91 60.49
2°C Coal|Pulverized Coal|w/o CCS 63.81 66.24 88.08
Reference Gas|Natural Gas Combined Cycle|w/o CCS 53.99 61.80 70.72
NDC Gas|Natural Gas Combined Cycle|w/o CCS 53.99 63.18 72.12
Coal exit Gas|Natural Gas Combined Cycle|w/o CCS 53.99 66.20 74.52
2°C Gas|Natural Gas Combined Cycle|w/o CCS 53.99 64.88 73.63
Reference Solar|PV 76.89 43.36 35.83
NDC Solar|PV 76.89 41.74 35.69
Coal exit Solar|PV 77.02 41.47 35.87
2°C Solar|PV 76.89 41.77 36.36
Reference Wind 64.58 56.93 54.82
NDC Wind 64.58 56.25 54.66
Coal exit Wind 64.58 56.05 54.58
2°C Wind 64.58 54.52 54.13
4
Figure SI-3:
|Primary energy.
Primary energy mix for the Reference, NDC, 2
°
C and coal
exit scenario for EUR (Europe), CHN (China), IND (India), JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS
(other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North Africa, central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin
America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of the
World) and the World in 2015, 2030 and 2050.
ROW
World
LAM
AFR
MEA
RUS
USA
OAS
IND
JPN
EUR
CHN
Reference.2015
NDC.2015
coal exit.2015
2°C.2015
Reference.2030
NDC.2030
coal exit.2030
2°C.2030
Reference.2050
NDC.2050
coal exit.2050
2°C.2050
Reference.2015
NDC.2015
coal exit.2015
2°C.2015
Reference.2030
NDC.2030
coal exit.2030
2°C.2030
Reference.2050
NDC.2050
coal exit.2050
2°C.2050
0
50
100
150
0
5
10
15
20
0
25
50
75
100
0
10
20
30
0
20
40
60
0
250
500
750
0
20
40
60
0
25
50
75
100
125
0
25
50
75
0
25
50
75
0
20
40
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
Primary Energy
[EJ/yr]
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
5
Figure SI-4:
|Secondary energy - electricity.
Secondary energy - electricity mix for the
Reference, NDC, 2
°
C and coal exit scenario for EUR (Europe), CHN (China), IND (India),
JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS (other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North Africa, central Asia),
RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South
Africa)), ROW (Rest of the World) and the World in 2015, 2030 and 2050.
ROW
World
LAM
AFR
MEA
RUS
USA
OAS
IND
JPN
EUR
CHN
Reference.2015
NDC.2015
coal exit.2015
2°C.2015
Reference.2030
NDC.2030
coal exit.2030
2°C.2030
Reference.2050
NDC.2050
coal exit.2050
2°C.2050
Reference.2015
NDC.2015
coal exit.2015
2°C.2015
Reference.2030
NDC.2030
coal exit.2030
2°C.2030
Reference.2050
NDC.2050
coal exit.2050
2°C.2050
0
20
40
60
0
1
2
3
4
0
10
20
30
0
2
4
0
5
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
0
10
20
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
Electricity
[EJ/yr]
Hydrogen
CHP|w/o CCS
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal
Nuclear
Gas
Light Fuel Oil
Oil
Coal
6
Figure SI-5:
|Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. CO2
emissions for the Reference, NDC,
2
°
C and coal exit scenario for EUR (Europe), CHN (China), IND (India), JAP (Japan), the
USA, OAS (other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North Africa, central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM
(Latin America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of
the World) and the World until 2050. The share of coal related emissions is indicated by the
dashed line.
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LAM
AFR
MEA
RUS
USA
OAS
IND
JPN
EUR
CHN
2010
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2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
5
10
0.0
0.5
1.0
0
2
4
6
8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
2
4
0
20
40
0
1
2
3
4
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
0
1
2
Emi|CO2
[Gt CO2−equiv/yr]
total coal Reference NDC coal exit 2°C
7
Figure SI-6:
|Carbon dioxide (CO2) prices. C O2
prices for the Reference, NDC, 2
°
C and
coal exit scenario for EUR (Europe), CHN (China), IND (India), JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS
(other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North Africa, central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin
America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of the
World) and the World until 2050.
●●●●
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ROW
RUS
USA
LAM
MEA
OAS
GLO
IND
JPN
AFR
CHN
EUR
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
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200
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100
200
300
Price|Carbon [US$2005/t CO2]
●
●
2°C
NDC
coal exit
Reference
8
Figure SI-7:
|Decomposition of mitigation cost.
Decomposition of regional mitigation
cost until 2050 for the NDC, 2
°
C and coal exit scenario compared to the Reference case relative
to GDP PPP discounted with a rate of 5%.
USA
GLO
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
NDC
Coal exit
2°C
0.0
0.3
0.6
−2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
−1
0
1
2
−1
0
1
2
−2
−1
0
1
−2.5
0.0
2.5
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
−2
0
2
4
0
1
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Discounted Consumption Loss 2015−2050 [% of GDP]
GDP loss/gain
Investments
Energy system fixed
Energy system variable
Coal trade
Gas trade
Oil trade
Uranium trade
Biomass trade
Permit trade
others
Capital market effect
NDC
Coal exit
2°C
NDC
Coal exit
2°C
9
GDP loss and energy system related investment cost dominate the mitigation
cost in the coal exit and 2
°
C scenario for India, China and globally. Global
cost savings are mostly comprised of lower non-energy investment cost and
additionally less variable cost of the energy system in the 2
°
C scenario. The
impact of exiting coal on consumption is most prominent in coal exporting
regions such as the USA and ROW (including Australia) through lower revenues
and higher cost for alternative fuel for coal importing regions such as Japan and
China.
SI-1.3. Air pollution
We find that exiting coal leads to similar air pollution health impact reductions
as the 2
°
C scenario. The substitution of coal with gas and oil leads to slightly
higher emission; however, emission factors for gas decrease substantially in the
long term and biomass related air pollution emissions are higher in the 2
°
C
scenario.
Phasing out coal leads to substitution effects, especially gas substitute coal
in the power sector and oil, gas and biomass in the industry and buildings sector.
However, there are effects that further lower air pollution emissions: India, for
example is a fast growing economy that is expected to double its GDP in the
next 15 years while continuing the trend of a growing population. This results
in a tripling of transport demand from until 2040, which is the major emitter of
NOx. In this context, the coal exit significantly increases the oil price compared
to the 2
°
C scenario (22% in 2030), which has a twofold effect leading to lower
air pollution emission: 1) The higher price for liquids based final energy reduces
the transport demand (37% in 2030) and 2) leads to a substitution of oil with
electricity based mobility (65% higher rate of electrification).
10
Figure SI-8:
|Air pollution concentration.
Global mean annual
P M2.5
concentration
[
µg/m3
]for the year 2015 and 2050 of the NDC, 2
°
C and coal exit scenario. Bars represent
the population living under concentrations of >50
µg/m
3(red), 50>x>35
µg/m
3(orange),
35>x>20 µg/m3(light orange), 20>x>10 µg/m3(yellow) and <10 µg/m3(green)
Longitude
Mean 18.6 Mean 18.6 Mean 20.7 Mean 25.2
50°S
0°
50°N
2015
NDC
50°S
0°
50°N
coal exit
100°W0°100°E
2°C
0.0e+00
1.0e+00
2.0e+00
4.0e+00
6.0e+00
8.0e+00
1.0e+01
1.5e+01
2.0e+01
2.5e+01
5.0e+01
7.5e+01
1.0e+04
2015
2030
2050
2100
world
NDC
coal exit
2°C
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
population [mio]
>50
35−50
20−35
10−20
<10
NDC
coal exit
2°C
NDC
coal exit
2°C
11
Figure SI-9:
|Air pollution health impact.
Global health impact of
P M2.5
and
O3
in
terms of annual premature deaths [
cases/km2
]for the year 2015 and relative to 2015 for the
year 2050 of the NDC, 2
°
C and coal exit scenario. Markers represent values for stringent (
⊗
)
and fixed emission factor (+) sensitivity cases, see Rauner, S. et al. Air Quality Co-benefits of
Ratcheting-up the NDCs. Climatic Change (in review) for a description of sensitivity cases.
Longitude
Latitude
50°S
0°
50°N
2015
NDC
50°S
0°
50°N
coal exit
100°W0°100°E
2°C
−1.0e+04
−5.0e+01
−2.5e+01
−1.2e+01
−6.0e+00
−3.0e+00
0.0e+00
3.0e+00
6.0e+00
1.2e+01
2.5e+01
5.0e+01
1.0e+04
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
2015
2030
2050
World
Reference
Reference
NDC
coal exit
2°C
Reference
NDC
coal exit
2°C
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
premature deaths [mio/yr]
12
Figure SI-10:
|Air pollution impact on Secondary Energy level [DALY].
Air pollution
impact on Secondary Energy level for the NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario relative to the
Reference until 2050.
SE|Heat|Biomass
SE|Solids|Biomass
SE|Hydrogen
SE|Solids|Traditional Biomass
SE|Gases
SE|Heat|Gas
SE|Liquids
SE|Biomass
SE|Electricity
SE|Heat|Geothermal
SE|Heat|Coal
SE|Solids|Coal
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
−1e+08
−5e+07
0e+00
5e+07
−1e+08
−5e+07
0e+00
5e+07
−1e+08
−5e+07
0e+00
5e+07
scenario NDC 2°C coal exit
Air Pollution
13
Figure SI-11:
|Regional Air pollution impact [DALY/capita].
Regional Air pollution
impact for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 for EUR (Europe), CHN
(China), IND (India), JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS (other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North
Africa, central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl.
Republic of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of the World) and the World.
● ● ● ●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
● ● ● ●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
● ● ● ●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ● ●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
● ● ● ●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ● ●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●●
USA
OAS
ROW
LAM
MEA
IND
JPN
EUR
Global
AFR
CHN
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
Air Pollution related Human Health impact
[Disability Adjusted Life Days Lost/capita]
●●●●
Reference 2°C NDC coal exit
14
SI-1.4. Life Cycle Assessment
Figure SI-12:
|Total global absolute impacts.
Total global absolute impacts for the NDC,
Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario relative to the Reference until 2050 of Fossil depletion [kg oil eq],
Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P eq], Human toxicity
[kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Marine
eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq], Natural land
transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Urban land occupation [m2a]
Water depletion [m3]
Ozone depletion [kg CFC−11 eq]
Air Pollution [DALY]
Photochemical oxidant formation [kg NMVOC]
Terrestrial acidification [kg SO2 eq]
Terrestrial ecotoxicity [kg 1,4−DB eq]
Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq]
Marine ecotoxicity [kg 1,4−DB eq]
Marine eutrophication [kg N eq]
Metal depletion [kg Fe eq]
Natural land transformation [m2a]
Agricultural land occupation [m2a]
Fossil depletion [kg oil eq]
Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4−DB eq]
Freshwater eutrophication [kg P eq]
Human toxicity [kg 1,4−DB eq]
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
−2.0e+13
−1.5e+13
−1.0e+13
−5.0e+12
0.0e+00
−3e+10
−2e+10
−1e+10
0e+00
−1.25e+10
−1.00e+10
−7.50e+09
−5.00e+09
−2.50e+09
0.00e+00
−2.5e+10
−2.0e+10
−1.5e+10
−1.0e+10
−5.0e+09
0.0e+00
−2.0e+11
−1.5e+11
−1.0e+11
−5.0e+10
0.0e+00
−4e+11
−2e+11
0e+00
−3e+11
−2e+11
−1e+11
0e+00
−6e+10
−4e+10
−2e+10
0e+00
−1.5e+11
−1.0e+11
−5.0e+10
0.0e+00
−4e+13
−2e+13
0e+00
−3e+11
−2e+11
−1e+11
0e+00
−1e+07
−5e+06
0e+00
−3e+11
−2e+11
−1e+11
0e+00
−8e+11
−6e+11
−4e+11
−2e+11
0e+00
−5.0e+11
0.0e+00
5.0e+11
1.0e+12
1.5e+12
2.0e+12
−1.5e+07
−1.0e+07
−5.0e+06
0.0e+00
−4e+11
−3e+11
−2e+11
−1e+11
0e+00
NDC coal exit 2°C
15
Figure SI-13:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Electricity.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
100
200
300
400
0e+00
2e+10
4e+10
6e+10
8e+10
0
5000
10000
15000
0
200
400
600
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
500
1000
1500
0e+00
2e+11
4e+11
6e+11
8e+11
0
30
60
90
0.0e+00
5.0e+07
1.0e+08
1.5e+08
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
0.0e+00
5.0e+06
1.0e+07
1.5e+07
0e+00
5e+04
1e+05
0
1000
2000
3000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
2000
4000
6000
0e+00
1e+06
2e+06
3e+06
4e+06
5e+06
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
200
400
600
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
SE|Electricity
16
Figure SI-14:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Heat|Geothermal.
Global absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of
Fossil depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication
[kg P eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity
[kg 1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe
eq], Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0e+00
1e+09
2e+09
0
10
20
30
40
0
1
2
3
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0.0e+00
5.0e+08
1.0e+09
1.5e+09
2.0e+09
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0
250000
500000
750000
1000000
0
250
500
750
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
0
100
200
300
400
0
5
10
15
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
0
25000
50000
75000
0
25
50
75
100
0
4
8
12
SE|Heat|Geothermal
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
17
Figure SI-15:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Heat|Coal.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
0e+00
5e+07
1e+08
0
100
200
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
10
20
30
0.0e+00
5.0e+09
1.0e+10
1.5e+10
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0
500000
1000000
1500000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0e+00
1e+05
2e+05
3e+05
0
10
20
0
2
4
6
0
20
40
60
0
20
40
60
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
0
10
20
30
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
SE|Heat|Coal
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
18
Figure SI-16:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Solids|Coal.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
10
20
30
0e+00
2e+08
4e+08
6e+08
0
500
1000
1500
0
3
6
9
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
50
100
150
200
0e+00
2e+10
4e+10
6e+10
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0e+00
3e+06
6e+06
9e+06
0
3000
6000
9000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
0e+00
1e+05
2e+05
3e+05
0
50
100
150
0
2
4
SE|Solids|Coal
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
19
Figure SI-17:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Solids|Gases.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0e+00
1e+08
2e+08
3e+08
0
50
100
150
0
1
2
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
10
20
30
40
0e+00
2e+10
4e+10
6e+10
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
0
2000
4000
6000
0
250000
500000
750000
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
100
200
300
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
0
10000
20000
30000
0
100
200
0
2
4
6
SE|Gases
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
20
Figure SI-18:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Heat|Gas.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0e+00
2e+07
4e+07
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
2
4
6
0.0e+00
2.5e+09
5.0e+09
7.5e+09
1.0e+10
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
0
250
500
750
1000
0e+00
5e+04
1e+05
0
2
4
6
8
0
10
20
30
40
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0
1000
2000
3000
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
SE|Heat|Gas
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
21
Figure SI-19:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Liquids.
Global absolute
impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil depletion [kg
oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P eq], Human
toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq],
Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq], Natural
land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
1
2
3
0.0e+00
5.0e+08
1.0e+09
1.5e+09
2.0e+09
0
2000
4000
6000
0
2
4
6
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
200
400
600
0e+00
1e+11
2e+11
3e+11
0
1
2
0e+00
1e+07
2e+07
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
0e+00
1e+06
2e+06
3e+06
4e+06
5e+06
0
2000
4000
0
1000
2000
3000
0
50
100
150
0
25
50
75
0e+00
1e+05
2e+05
3e+05
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
50
100
SE|Liquids
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
22
Figure SI-20:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Biomass.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0e+00
1e+08
2e+08
3e+08
4e+08
5e+08
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
0.0
0.5
1.0
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
10
20
0e+00
1e+09
2e+09
3e+09
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0e+00
2e+07
4e+07
6e+07
0
100
200
300
0e+00
1e+05
2e+05
3e+05
0
25
50
75
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0
10
20
0
100
200
300
0
10000
20000
30000
0
5
10
15
20
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
SE|Biomass
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
23
Figure SI-21:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Heat|Biomass.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0e+00
1e+07
2e+07
0
200
400
600
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0e+00
5.0e+07
1.0e+08
1.5e+08
0.000
0.005
0.010
0
250000
500000
750000
1000000
0
5
10
15
0
5000
10000
15000
0
1
2
3
4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0
5
10
15
0
500
1000
1500
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
SE|Heat|Biomass
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
24
Figure SI-22:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Solids|Biomass.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0e+00
5.0e+07
1.0e+08
1.5e+08
2.0e+08
0
2000
4000
0.0
0.2
0.4
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
3
6
9
12
0e+00
5e+08
1e+09
0.000
0.025
0.050
0.075
0.100
0.0e+00
5.0e+06
1.0e+07
1.5e+07
2.0e+07
2.5e+07
0
25
50
75
100
125
0
50000
100000
150000
0
10
20
30
0
2
4
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0
50
100
0
5000
10000
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
SE|Solids|Biomass
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
25
Figure SI-23:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Hydrogen.
Global
absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario until 2050 of Fossil
depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater eutrophication [kg P
eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq], Marine ecotoxicity [kg
1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY], Metal depletion [kg Fe eq],
Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11 eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0e+00
5.0e+07
1.0e+08
1.5e+08
0
10
20
30
40
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0.0e+00
5.0e+09
1.0e+10
1.5e+10
0.00
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0e+00
2e+05
4e+05
6e+05
0
50
100
150
0
25000
50000
75000
0
20
40
60
0
20
40
0
2
4
6
0
5
10
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0
1
2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SE|Hydrogen
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
26
Figure SI-24:
|Global absolute impacts of Secondary Energy - Solids|Traditional
Biomass.
Global absolute impacts for the Reference, NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario
until 2050 of Fossil depletion [kg oil eq], Freshwater ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Freshwater
eutrophication [kg P eq], Human toxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Ionising radiation [kg U235 eq],
Marine ecotoxicity [kg 1,4-DB eq], Marine eutrophication [kg N eq], Air Pollution [DALY],
Metal depletion [kg Fe eq], Natural land transformation [m2] and Ozone depletion [kg CFC-11
eq].
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
10
20
30
40
0e+00
1e+10
2e+10
3e+10
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0
20
40
60
80
−0.50
−0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
0e+00
2e+11
4e+11
6e+11
0
5
10
0e+00
3e+07
6e+07
9e+07
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0.0e+00
4.0e+06
8.0e+06
1.2e+07
0
5000
10000
0
2000
4000
6000
0e+00
1e+05
2e+05
3e+05
0e+00
5e+06
1e+07
0
250000
500000
750000
1000000
1250000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0
2000
4000
6000
SE|Solids|Traditional Biomass
Reference NDC 2°C coal exit
27
Figure SI-25:
|Global absolute cost of Secondary Energy - Electricity [US$].
Global
absolute cost of Secondary Energy - Electricity for the NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario
relative to the Reference case until 2050.
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Natural land transformation
Agricultural land occupation
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
Human toxicity
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050
−7.5e+12
−5.0e+12
−2.5e+12
0.0e+00
−7.5e+12
−5.0e+12
−2.5e+12
0.0e+00
−7.5e+12
−5.0e+12
−2.5e+12
0.0e+00
−7.5e+12
−5.0e+12
−2.5e+12
0.0e+00
value
SE|Electricity
● ● ●
NDC 2°C coal exit
28
Figure SI-26:
|Regional local monetized impacts as a share of GDP PPP.
Regional
local monetized impacts as a share of GDP PPP for the NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario
relative to the Reference case until 2050 for EUR (Europe), CHN (China), IND (India), JAP
(Japan), the USA, OAS (other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North Africa, central Asia), RUS
(Russia), LAM (Latin America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South Africa)),
ROW (Rest of the World) and the World.
● ● ●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ●
●●●
● ●
●
●●
● ●
●●●
● ●
●●●
● ● ●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ● ●●●
● ●
●●●
● ●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●
●
USA
USA
USA
ROW
ROW
ROW
RUS
RUS
RUS
MEA
MEA
MEA
OAS
OAS
OAS
JPN
JPN
JPN
LAM
LAM
LAM
EUR
EUR
EUR
IND
IND
IND
AFR
AFR
AFR
CHN
CHN
CHN
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
−0.04
−0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
−0.04
−0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
−0.04
−0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
−0.04
−0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
−0.04
−0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
−0.04
−0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
gdp
Ecosystem Damages [US$2005 from species.yr]
Human Health [US$2005 from DALY]
Consumption Loss [US$2005/yr]
Agricultural land occupation
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Consumption Loss
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit
29
Figure SI-27:
|Regional local monetized impacts.
Regional local monetized impacts for
the NDC, Coal exit and 2
°
C scenario relative to the Reference case until 2050 for EUR (Europe),
CHN (China), IND (India), JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS (other Asia), MEA (Middle East,
North Africa, central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa
(excl. Republic of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of the World) and the World.
● ● ●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ●
●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
● ● ●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
USA
USA
USA
ROW
ROW
ROW
RUS
RUS
RUS
MEA
MEA
MEA
OAS
OAS
OAS
JPN
JPN
JPN
LAM
LAM
LAM
EUR
EUR
EUR
IND
IND
IND
AFR
AFR
AFR
CHN
CHN
CHN
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
−5.0e+11
0.0e+00
5.0e+11
1.0e+12
1.5e+12
2.0e+12
−5.0e+11
0.0e+00
5.0e+11
1.0e+12
1.5e+12
2.0e+12
−5.0e+11
0.0e+00
5.0e+11
1.0e+12
1.5e+12
2.0e+12
−5.0e+11
0.0e+00
5.0e+11
1.0e+12
1.5e+12
2.0e+12
−5.0e+11
0.0e+00
5.0e+11
1.0e+12
1.5e+12
2.0e+12
−5.0e+11
0.0e+00
5.0e+11
1.0e+12
1.5e+12
2.0e+12
value
Ecosystem Damages [US$2005 from species.yr]
Human Health [US$2005 from DALY]
Consumption Loss [US$2005/yr]
Agricultural land occupation
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Consumption Loss
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit
30
Figure SI-28:
|Regional local and global monetized impacts as a share of GDP PPP.
Regional local and global monetized impacts as a share of GDP PPP for the NDC, Coal exit
and 2
°
C scenario relative to the Reference case until 2050 for EUR (Europe), CHN (China),
IND (India), JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS (other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North Africa,
central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic
of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of the World) and the World.
● ● ●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ● ●●●
●●●●●
● ●
●●●
● ● ●
●●
● ●
●●●
● ●
●●●
● ● ●●●
● ●
●●●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ● ●●●
●●●
●●
● ● ●●●
● ●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
● ● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
USA
USA
USA
ROW
ROW
ROW
RUS
RUS
RUS
MEA
MEA
MEA
OAS
OAS
OAS
JPN
JPN
JPN
LAM
LAM
LAM
EUR
EUR
EUR
IND
IND
IND
AFR
AFR
AFR
CHN
CHN
CHN
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
period
gdp
Ecosystem Damages [US$2005 from species.yr]
Human Health [US$2005 from DALY]
Consumption Loss [US$2005/yr]
Climate Change[US$2005 from Social Cost of Carbon]
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Consumption Loss
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit NDC 2°C coal exit
NDC 2°C coal exit
31
Figure SI-29:
|Global local and global monetized impacts as a share of GDP PPP.
Global local and global monetized impacts as a share of GDP PPP for the NDC, Coal exit
and 2
°
C scenario relative to the Reference case until 2050 for EUR (Europe), CHN (China),
IND (India), JAP (Japan), the USA, OAS (other Asia), MEA (Middle East, North Africa,
central Asia), RUS (Russia), LAM (Latin America), AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic
of South Africa)), ROW (Rest of the World) and the World.
Ecosystem Damages [US$2005 from species.yr]
Human Health [US$2005 from DALY]
Consumption Loss [US$2005/yr]
Climate Change[US$2005 from Social Cost of Carbon]
Agricultural land occupation
Climate change
Fossil depletion
Freshwater ecotoxicity
Freshwater eutrophication
Human toxicity
Ionising radiation
Marine ecotoxicity
Marine eutrophication
Metal depletion
Natural land transformation
Ozone depletion
Air Pollution
Photochemical oxidant formation
Terrestrial acidification
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Urban land occupation
Water depletion
Consumption Loss
NDC 2°C coal exit
% of GDP]
2
4
0
Impact
Local net societal benefits
Net societal effect
Local plus global net societal benefits
Stressor
2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050
32
Figure SI-30:
|Regional analysis of local co-benefits and direct policy cost relative
to GDP PPP.
Discounted co-benefits and direct policy cost for all world regions in the 2
°
C
and coal exit scenarios in % of GDP PPP with a discount rate of 5%. The dashed line indicates
the break-even between cost and benefits. The whiskers indicate the uncertainty ranges of
human health and environmental impact translation into social cost.
coal exit
Policy cost
Co-benefits
2°C
Policy cost
Co-benefits
[% of GDP] [% of GDP]
AFR - Sub-Saharan Africa
CHN - China
EUR - Europe
IND - India
JPN - Japan
LAM - Latin America
MEA - Middle East, North Africa, central Asia
OAS - other Asia
ROW - Rest of the World
RUS - Russia
USA - United States of America
Valuation uncertainty
GLO
CHN
EUR JPN
LAM MEA
OAS
ROW RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
5.5
0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
IND
●
AFR
●
7.4 5.5 6.7
33
Figure SI-31:
|Regional analysis of local and global co-benefits and direct policy
cost relative to GDP PPP.
Discounted local, global co-benefits and direct policy cost for
all world regions in the 2
°
C and coal exit scenarios in % of GDP PPP with a discount rate of
5%. The dashed line indicates the break-even between cost and benefits.
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
AFR - Sub-Saharan Africa
CHN - China
EUR - Europe
IND - India
JPN - Japan
LAM - Latin America
MEA - Middle East,
North Africa, central Asia
OAS - other Asia
ROW - Rest of the World
RUS - Russia
USA
coal exit
Policy cost
Co-benefits
2°C
Policy cost
Co-benefits
[% of GDP] [% of GDP]
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
2
4
6
8
−1 0 1 2 3
0
2
4
6
8
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
2
4
6
8
34
Figure SI-32:
|Regional analysis of local co-benefits and direct policy cost relative
to GDP PPP.
Undiscounted co-benefits and direct policy cost for all world regions in the 2
°
C
and coal exit scenarios in % of GDP PPP. The dashed line indicates the break-even between
cost and benefits.
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN LAM MEA
OAS
ROW RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA OAS
ROW
RUS USA
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
−1 0 1 2 3 4 −1 0 1 2 3 4 −1 0 1 2 3 4
−1 0 1 2 3 4 −1 0 1 2 3 4 −1 0 1 2 3 4
−1 0 1 2 3 4 −1 0 1 2 3 4 −1 0 1 2 3 4
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
mitigation cost
co-benefits
RegionCode
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
coal exit
2°C
NDC
35
Figure SI-33:
|Regional analysis of local and global co-benefits and direct policy
cost relative to GDP PPP.
Discounted local, global co-benefits and direct policy cost for
all world regions in the 2
°
C and coal exit scenarios in % of GDP PPP with a discount rates
of 2.5, 5 and 7.5%. The dashed line indicates the break-even between cost and benefits. The
whiskers indicate the uncertainty ranges of human health and environmental impact translation
into social cost.
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUSUSA ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM MEA
OAS
ROW RUS
USA
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN
LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW
RUS
USA ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
AFR
CHN
EUR
IND
JPN LAM
MEA
OAS
ROW RUS
USA ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
−1 0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
Policy cost
Co-benefits
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
a
●
AFR - Sub-Saharan Africa
CHN - China
EUR - Europe
IND - India
JPN - Japan
LAM - Latin America
MEA - Middle East,
North Africa, central Asia
OAS - other Asia
ROW - Rest of the World
RUS - Russia
USA
[% of GDP]
coal exit
2°C
2.5% 5.0% 7.5%
Discounting
36