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A Dual-scale Modelling approach to Integrated Resource Management in East and South-East Asia: Challenges and Potential solutions
Abstract
Currently, in many of the highly productive lowla nd areas of E and SE Asia a trend to further intensification and diversification of (agricultura l) land use can be observed. Growing economies and urbanization also increase the claims on land and water by non-a gricultural uses. As a result, decisions related to the management and planning of scarce resources become increasingl y complex. Technological innovations at the field/f arm level are needed but not sufficient - changes in resource use at regional scale will also be essential. To suppo rt decision- making in such situations, we advocate a multi-scal e modelling approach embedded in a solid participat ory process. To this end, the Integrated Resource Management and Land use Analysis (IRMLA) Project is developing an analytical framework and methods for resource use analysis and planning, for four sites in Asia. In th e envisaged multi-scale approach, integration of results from f ield, farm, district and provincial level analysis is based on Interactive multiple goal linear programming (), Fa rm Household Modelling (FHM), production ecological concepts and participatory techniques. The novel approach co mprises the following steps: (i) Inventory/quantifi cation of current land use systems, resource availability, ma nagement practices and policy views, (ii) Analysis of alternative, innovative land use systems/technologies, (iii) Exp loration of the opportunities and limitations to ch ange resource use at regional scale under alternative future scen arios, (iv) Modelling decision behavior of farmers and identification of feasible policy interventions, an d (v) Synthesis of results from farm to regional le vel for negotiation of the most promising options by a stakeholder plat form. In the current paper, the operationalization of a dual-scale approach is illustrated by the outputs (development scenarios, promising policy measures and innovativ e production systems) from various component models for the case study Ilocos Norte, Philippines. A procedure is di scussed for the integration of results from the different model components at two different decision making levels (farm and province).
... This method has been applied in various land use studies (e.g.Van Latesteijn, 1995; Barbier, 1998; Bouman et al., 1999; Lu et al., 2004). This framework has been further improved and applied within the SysNet project that aimed at the development and evaluation of methodologies for exploring land use options at regional scale in South and Southeast Asia (Hoanh andRoetter, 1998;Roetter et al, 2004). Building upon this experience, a new research network "Systems Research for Integrated Resource Management and Land Use Analysis in East and Southeast Asia (IRMLA)" was set up for several multi-scale case studies in East and Southeast Asia.TechnoGIN allows the quantification of inputs and outputs of large numbers of current and future-oriented cropping systems in these case study areas. ...
Since 1998, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV)
promotes development-orientated agricultural and environmental research and
strengthening of North-South partnerships through its International Cooperation
(DLO-IC) research programme. By 2005, some 70 collaborative North-South
projects had been carried out. All science groups of Wageningen University and
Research centre (Wageningen UR) were involved in the implementation of the
programme and at least half the projects and activities undertaken were directly
related to rural development and sustainable agriculture.
In recent years there has been a search for more sustainable development
strategies. This has direct implications for agriculture, given its relations with the
natural resource base and its prime economic importance in low-income countries.
We identify three areas where agriculture can make a critical contribution: alleviating
poverty, protecting natural resources and increasing food security. These areas are
directly related to two Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): eradicating extreme
poverty and hunger (MDG 1) and ensuring environmental sustainability (MDG 7).
Our aim is to draw lessons from the DLO-IC projects to contribute to future
thinking about issues of poverty alleviation, increasing food security and natural
resources conservation. Our conclusions stress the strategic role of agriculture in
development processes, in which we have identified three different functions:
• provide a stable basis for changing livelihoods facilitating the gradual transition
out of agriculture into other sectors of the economy;
• deliver essential environmental services;
• provide sufficient affordable food of the quality needed to sustain a growing
world population.
High population pressure and the rapid pace of human activity including urbanization, industrialization and other economic activities have led to a dwindling supply of arable land per capita and a process of agricultural intensification in South Asia. While this process has significantly increased food production to feed the growing population, it has also entailed considerable damage to the physical environment, including degradation and depletion of natural resources and unsustainable use of land and water resources. This paper employs the analytical tools of economic theory, environmental and ecological economics to model the impact of irrigation in South Asia. It underscores the need for an eclectic approach to policy responses stemming from private and common property rights theories, externality theory and sustainability theory with a view to environmentalizing agricultural development.
Traditional lowland rices of Asia are photoperiod sensitive and ripen at the end of the monsoon rainy season, producing stable but low yields even under environmental extremes. The dry season fallow of these single rice crop systems breaks insect and plant virus disease cycles limiting pest buildup. Modern rices developed in the sixties to feed a growing human population attain their high yielding potential with good water control but are intolerant of drought or floods.Production of modern rices in Asia has kept pace with human population growth. Modern photoperiod insensitive varieties encouraged irrigation system development to realize their high yielding potential through dry season cropping and increased yield per crop. But multiple rice cropping over large areas raised the carrying capacity of the environment by allowing yearround pest development. Numerous outbreaks subsequently occurred over the past two decades through resurgence caused by the increased use of government‐subsidized, broad‐spectrum insecticides killing natural enemies. Selective insecticides were not available. Insect resistant varieties under the intensive pest pressure could not prevent these outbreaks as the pests rapidly select for new biotypes.Pest management needs to be founded on organizing communitywide planting schedules for each irrigation system to create rice‐free periods each year mimicing the traditional dry season fallow. But with irrigation, non‐rice crops can be grown during this rice‐free period. The result is to lower the carrying capacity of rice agroecosystems to pests, allowing pest resistant varieties longer field life. The need for insecticide control will also be reduced, sparing more natural enemies. In the future, the broad‐spectrum, petroleum‐based insecticides should be replaced by biologically‐based products which are selective, safe, and inexpensive.
Nitrogen dynamics and balances in intensive and diversified lowland rice (Oryza sativa L.)-based cropping systems that receive heavy fertilization, tillage, and irrigation have not been explored. Such information is essential to improve the efficiency of N fertilizer, an input based on a nonrenewable energy resource and whose oxidized products pose hazards to human health and the environment. Field experiments at an experimental farm on an Inceptisol and in two farmers' fields, one with an Inceptisol and one with a Vertisol soil, quantified (i) NO3~-N and NtU-N in different soil layers in relation to waterfilled pore spaces (WFPS), (ii) N balance, and (iii) systems-level N efficiencies in several cropping patterns. Nitrate-N and NHJ-N were quantified monthly from July 1993 to June 1994. The WFPS remained <0.80 mL mL ' in the beginning of the wet season and throughout the dry season that enhanced nitrification. Ammonium-N in the 100-cm layer was 20 to 40 kg ha"1 in the wet season and 10 kg ha ' in the dry season. Nitrate-N, however, ranged from 27 to 54 and from 67 to 195 kg ha ' in the two seasons; it was higher in farmers' fields (192-195 kg ha"1) than in the experimental farm (67-112 kg ha"1). Total N loss was 34 to 549 kg ha"1 across sites, with the largest in rice-sweetpepper (Capsicum annuum L. var. annuum) and rice tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Miller). Despite a lack of a consistent trend in N efficiency among the different cropping systems, it was higher with tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) and garlic (Alliiim sativum L.). There appears an opportunity to grow a NO^ catch crop during the dry-wet transition in rice-sweetpepper and rice-tomato systems to capture and recycle soil NOf-N.
In this paper we describe our experiences with the application of a multiple criteria decision method (IMGP=Interactive Multiple Goal Programming) for the evaluation of economic policy in the Netherlands. An uncommon aspect of this study is that the multiple criteria decision method was not used to find an optimal solution, but rather to test the attainability of a number of contrasting scenarios for economic development. These scenarios are intended to represent the main options for the development of the Netherlands in the eighties. Within the framework of a broader research project (labeled Policy-Oriented Survey of the Future), these scenarios are linked to characteristic political views.
Agricultural systems in South and Southeast Asia are being challenged by the requirements of increased productivity, more diversified products, and environmental protection. Optimizing future land use in such complex situations requires new partnerships between planners, scientists and decision makers and new methodologies and tools that can support decision-making on the most beneficial use of land and other natural resources. The Systems Research Network for Eco-regional Land Use Planning in Tropical Asia (SysNet) was established in late 1996 to develop methodologies for exploring alternative options for agricultural land use and rural development. The methods and tools that are needed to analyse various scenarios of future land use in order to guide policy changes are operationalized into a land use planning and analysis system (LUPAS) which has three main methodology components: (i) land evaluation; (ii) scenario construction; and (iii) multiple goal linear programming (MGLP). This paper describes LUPAS and illustrates the capability of this modeling framework by discussing a few examples from an on-going study for the province of Ilocos Norte, Philippines. The results imply that water availability is an important constraint to agricultural development and improving the irrigation systems would result in higher productivity and more income for the province.
This paper discusses a new class of problem related to mathematical programming but with two separate decision makers in hierarchical
relationship, each with his own objective function and control over distinct but interacting variables. The relationship of
this problem to agricultural (energy and environmental) policy problems is developed, together with the relationship of this
new problem structure to mathematical programming, game theory, control theory, and principal agent theory. Suggested computational
approaches are reviewed, along with the solution to two illustrative examples of the use of the technique.
Many farmers are intensifying production systems by applying greater amounts of inorganic fertilizers, irrigation and pesticides, especially to cash crops. Such intensified systems, even though economically profitable in the short run, may not be sustainable. This paper analyses the economics and sustainability of an intensified rainfed rice-based system in Ilocos Norte, Philippines. Farmers use high levels of inorganic fertilizers for cash crops such as sweet pepper, garlic and tomato. Although these crops generate high levels of income, the high input systems may not be sustainable in the long run due to adverse on-site and off-site effects. Preliminary estimates of total factor productivity that include on-site effects only, display no clear time trend. However, negative externalities created by high nitrate contamination of groundwater and high rates of pesticide usage could make the system unsustainable by adversely affecting human health and the environment.
A system for agroinoculating rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV), one of the two viruses of the rice tungro disease complex, has been optimised. A nontumour-inducing strain of Agrobacterium (pGV3850) was used in order to conform with biosafety regulations. Fourteen-day-old seedlings survived the mechanical damage of the technique and were still young enough to support virus replication. The level of the bacterial inoculum was important to obtain maximum infection, with a high inoculum level (0.5 × 1012 cells/ml) resulting in up to 100% infection of a susceptible variety that was comparable with infection by insect transmission. Agroinoculation with RTBV was successful for all three rice cultivarss tested; TN1 (tungro susceptible), Balimau Putih (tungro tolerant), and IR26 (RTSV and vector resistant). Agroinoculation enables resistance to RTBV to be distinguished from resistance to the leafhopper vector of the virus, and should prove useful in screening rice germplasm, breeding materials, and transgenic rice lines.
This article presents a bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment of the effectiveness of different agrarian policies to improve farm household income and soil fertility. Farm household decisions on allocation of land, labour and capital resources for crop and production technique choice are simulated, taking into account resource availability, household objectives and prevailing market conditions. The modelling framework relies on a combination of three procedures: (1) farm household modelling, (2) linear programming, and (3) partial equilibrium analysis. These procedures are applied to evaluate the impact at farm household and regional level of technology improvement and a variety of policy instruments: improvement of infrastructure, price support, land policy and credit schemes. Regional aggregation allows prices to be determined endogenously on regional markets. The approach is applied to the Cercle de Koutiala in Mali, for which selected results are given as an example. Results indicate that technology alone cannot sufficiently induce farmers to adopt sustainable production systems. Additional economic incentives are necessary to foster technological change.
Regional land use analysis plays a key role in the analysis of agricultural policies. However, few operational tools for regional land use analysis are available. Current developments in regional land use analysis are rather ad hoc. More generic methodologies are required to effectively answer questions by policy makers. The analysis may require methods to explore, project and predict agricultural land use. An all-encompassing methodology seems unrealistic. A toolbox for regional land use analysis is proposed. The tools (including, e.g. database management systems, GIS and economic models) can be linked in such a way that they can carry out the analysis required for the specific conditions of stakeholders. To facilitate linkages between the different tools, data standards need to be developed for both bio-physical as well as economic data. Discussions with stakeholders in an early phase of the analysis may set priorities and determine the selection of tools. Results of the analysis need to be presented in such a way that they are appealing to the stakeholders. Only then can they be transferred effectively. The general framework is illustrated with a methodology for regional land use analysis in terms of economic and environmental trade-offs.
To support the different phases of a policy making process aimed at changing land use, distinct types of land use studies are required. This paper focuses on exploratory land use studies and their role in the phase of formulating strategic policy objectives. Exploratory land use studies contribute to a transparent discussion on policy objectives by showing ultimate technical possibilities and consequences of imposing different priorities to agro-technical, food security, socio-economic and environmental objectives. A methodology is presented in which science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives under given values of exogenous variables (e.g. regarding population growth and requirements for agricultural produce). Land use scenarios are generated showing consequences of different priorities for objectives by using natural resources and technical possibilities in different ways. Applications of such an approach are given for the global, regional and farm level, each addressing specific questions and target groups. The paper focuses on the type of results these studies produce and their role in the societal and political debate on strategic land use policy and planning. It is concluded that if exploratory land use studies are carried out in true interaction with target groups, they may well contribute to the debate and learning on sustainable land use options and a purposeful identification of effective policy instruments in a next phase of the policy making process.
This paper presents SysNet, a systems research network in South and South-east Asia, established to develop and evaluate methodologies for enhancing formulation of strategic land use policies. SysNet adopted theory and concepts from both natural and social science approaches. Multiple goal linear programming was used to integrate information on a broad range of alternative land use systems, resource availability and policy objectives, to reveal possibilities and limitations of agricultural resource use and trade-offs between policy objectives. The methodology was developed and applied in and with a network of researchers and stakeholders, for four case study areas in India, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. An application is presented for Haryana State (India), to illustrate the methodology and its components, as well as the type of questions that can be explored and subsequently discussed with stakeholders. We discuss lessons learnt on how to communicate LUPAS to stakeholders in interactive settings, with details for the Kedah-Perlis case region in Malaysia.
Soil loss, food insecurity, population pressure and low income of the rural population are interrelated problems in the Loess Plateau of northern China, and result in a spiral of unsustainability. This paper examines Ansai County as a case study to explore strategic land use options that may meet well-defined goals of regional development, using a systems approach that integrated the fragmented and empirical information on the biophysical, agronomic and socio-economic conditions. We used production ecological principles, simulation modeling and multiple goal linear programming as integrative tools. Four scenarios were explored, representing major directions of agricultural development in the region and views of national and local stakeholders, farmers and environmentalists. The results indicate that soil conservation, food self-sufficiency and income for the rural population can be substantially improved by efficient resource use and appropriate inputs. In the long-term, terracing and use of crop rotations with alfalfa may be the best options for soil conservation. The large rural population and the lack of off-farm employment opportunities could be the most important factors affecting rural development in Ansai. This study contributes to the understanding of regional problems and agricultural development potentials, and shows agro-technical possibilities for alleviating the unsustainability problems in this fragile and poorly endowed region. To promote actual development towards the identified options, on-farm innovation and appropriate policy measures are needed. The explored land use options enable a much more targeted innovation and development of policies.
The .Systems Research Network for Ecoregional Land Use Planning in Support of Natural Resource Management in Tropical Asia (SysNet). was financed under the Ecoregional Fund, administered by the International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR). The objective of the project was to develop and evaluate methodologies and tools for land use analysis, and apply them at the subnational scale to support agricultural and environmental policy formulation. In the framework of this project, the land use planning and analysis system LUPAS was developed. In this volume, the highlights of the project period between October 1999 and June 2000 are illustrated through presentations of the results of the most recent scenario analyses for the four case study regions (Haryana State, India; Kedah- Perlis Region, Malaysia; Can Tho Province, Vietnam; and Ilocos Norte Province, Philippines) . Subsequently, special attention is paid to the development and description of the user interface and interaction with the stakeholders in the case study areas. The volume concludes with a brief outline of the most important challenges ahead.
Decision support technologies and paradigms have their origins in management and information sciences but have been widely proposed as providing a basis for improving management for sustainability rural resource management. As such, they provide a means of helping managers to deal with increased information, increasingly complex decisions and to professionalise their activities. However, decision support has, in practice, had limited impact in many rural resource management contexts. Failures can be attributed to non-delivery, non-adoption and to unexpected negative impacts where they are adopted. This paper proposes a response to these challenges by reappraising the role of decision support and proposing a generic framework for the implementation of decision support as a broader initiative than the development of a decision support output, and one that aims to foster learning and co-learning.
This paper describes a method of investigating development possibilities for a region under various constraints and demands. Use is made of an interactive multiple goal linear programming technique. The method is illustrated with an example from a semi-arid zone in the Mediterranean Basin. It is concluded that the method can help to decide on feasible development pathways within a wide range of technical and socio-economic scenarios, and so explore the ‘margins for policy’. It enables communication between politics, planning and research and can therefore serve as a tool for more efficient development planning.
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