Pınar Deniz

Marmara University · Department of Economics

This study revisits the drivers of income inequality with political institutions at the core. We take a multidimensional institutional approach by defining political institutions in terms of governance, political freedom, political fragmentation and political scale. The main contributions of our study are (i) presenting the most extensive analysis...

This study revisits the widely researched area of the consumption function using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) for a panel of EU countries to deal with the uncertainty of potential determinants, using the convergence club analysis to construct homogeneous groups by income. BMA suggests that income is the only variable that is found to be a strong...

This study initially calculates export sophistication of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries to make a comparison in the region and in between OPEC and non-OPEC countries for 2004-2016 period. Secondly, short and long run empirical analysis are applied to examine the effect of export sophistication on GDP per capita growth controlling for...

This paper explores the link between output growth and volatility using several macroeconomic variables for a panel of countries for the period of 1971–2014. Using an augmented panel GARCH-M model, we allow for the first time in the literature for independent variables to be part of the conditional equations. The paper is also novel in terms of enc...

Politicians can use social and economic policies on clientelist grounds neglecting the efficiency and equity concerns of public policy. While incumbents might reward and punish voters based on party-specific fundamentals, the role of political ideologies and fragmentation is mostly neglected. For societies such as Turkey, where the ideological stan...

Even though a wide range of the literature explores how governments target public goods strategically, only a handful of papers examine whether these electorally motivated distributive patterns have consequences for the real economy. With the use of Turkish electoral and firm-level data, this paper examines whether electoral factors affect the vari...

Electoral politics and regional variation in socioeconomic conditions of individuals receive huge interest in countries with sizable political tension. Even though Turkey has undergone a combination of periods of economic success and a period of economic and political turmoil, it has been governed by a single political party during the last two dec...

This paper employs the structural threshold approach of Kourtellos et al. (2016) to examine various specifications of the Taylor rule model. Contrary to the previous work on the Taylor rule, this methodology allows for endogeneity of the threshold variable in addition to the right-hand-side variables suggesting a fully comprehensive flexible framew...

This paper examines the behaviour of Bitcoin returns and those of several other cryptocurrencies in the pre and post period of the introduction of the Bitcoin futures market. We use the principal component-guided sparse regression (PC-LASSO) model to analyze several sample sizes for the pre and post periods. Besides the neighbourhood of the break t...

Following the world financial crisis beginning in the last quarter of 2008, aggregate demand and commodity prices have declined sharply leading to a fast decline in world inflation. This different and new period reflects the rise in risk appetite leading to high fluctuations in the short term capital flows. World central banks revised their monetar...

This chapter investigates the monetary policy rule of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey under a structural VAR (vector autoregression) model, structurally decomposes the variations of the determinants of the monetary policy, and compares the findings with a set of inflation-targeting emerging market economies. Structural VAR methodology is...

Cross sectional dependence may lead to inconsistent and inefficient estimators and as such misleading inferences when standard panel data techniques such as fixed/random effects are employed. Pesaran (2006) suggests incorporating cross sectional averages in panel data models as approximates of unobserved common factor(s) to deal with cross sectiona...

The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI) by applying conventional and unconventional econome...

Human-induced climate change has been one of the most widely discussed issues of scientific and political spheres in the recent decades, and it has been overwhelmingly agreed that climate change poses a very serious threat for the environment and the economy. It has been observed that increasing temperatures and extremities in weather patterns crea...

Maintaining price stability is the main objective of central banks all over the world. Each central bank requires a unique monetary policy rule as the characteristics and structure of each economy is idiosyncratic. Economic diversities necessitate special efforts, however, theories emerged from former experiences worldwide led to generalizations of...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of trade and interest rate differential on the financial openness of Central and Eastern European, Latin American and East Asian countries. Second generation panel analyses display a long run relationship between financial openness, trade openness and interest rate differentials in all three region...

Savings problem has become a crucial issue since it is one of the reasons of today's frequently-observed-financial crisis. There are several theories explaining this problem in the framework of consumption theory. Inequality in income distribution affects saving behavior. In this sense, our topic is substantial. As a matter of fact, if income inequ...

Consumer confidence indexes are among the major economic variables as private consumption stands as the major component of aggregate demand in many economies. This is also relevant for an emerging economy like Turkey. “What determines consumer confidence?” is one of the most popular questions in the literature of consumer surveys. There are two c...

This study examines the relationship between consumer confidence and financial markets for an emerging economy, namely Turkey. We believe that in emerging markets the future is uncertain rather than risky. In such an economy, consumer confidence should be regarded as an economic indicator which derives most of its information content from past and...

It has been a long debate whether Fed funds target interest rate (FFTR) has significant explanatory power on interest rates in other countries. In this paper, we analyze the effects of FFTR on Bank of England (BOE) bank rate and European Central Bank (ECB) key interest rate employing the rather new and trustworthy technique of Bounds testing develo...

One of the well known debates circulating around the state of income inequality is whether globalization has been a positive or negative factor. In the last two decades, a major result of globalization has been foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI inflows create employment opportunities for unskilled labor intensive countries as the operations that...

This study aims to investigate the relationship between industrial value added and CO2 emissions for developing and developed countries with the aim of making a comparison. Many countries ignore the environmental sensitivity not to drop back due to the competitiveness. However, this recklessness emerges crucial environmental pollution which contrib...

This paper aims to analyze Keynesian well-known twin deficits hypothesis for a group of emerging countries using quarterly data between 1996 and 2006. Twin deficits hypothesis argues that there is a positive relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit. Several papers have analyzed this relationship but reached no consensus on the existenc...

It has been a long debate whether Fed Funds target interest rate (FFTR) has significant explanatory power on interest rates in other countries. In this paper, we analyze the effects of FFTR on Bank of England (BOE) bank rate and European Central Bank (ECB) key interest rate employing - the rather new and trustworthy technique of-Bounds testing deve...