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Water futures: Reviewing water-scenario analyses through an original interpretative framework
Abstract
Water is a vital need for humans and a critical resource for the maintenance of social–ecological systems. Against the backdrop of global environmental and societal changes, water scarcity looms large in many parts of the world. This uncertainty regarding the future notwithstanding, not until recently has scenario analysis, a technique to envision possible and consistent paths of the evolution of a system, importantly permeated research on water issues. Through review of theoretical and case-study papers, we built an analytical framework to characterize the use of water-scenario analysis and to evaluate the current situation and future possibilities. By means of qualitative and statistical analyses we propose guidelines to consider before initiating a water-scenario analysis. These recommendations pretend to capture better the complexity of nature–society relationships in scenario analysis and concern i) the representation of drivers guiding water use and in an integrated and transparent manner, ii) the use of participatory approaches and iii) the use of modeling. Despite departing from a water perspective, the framework and recommendations may interest those working with environmental scenarios from local to global scales.
... 'Soft interventions' largely target residential water users with the purpose of modifying personal water-use behaviours through information dissemination and education (Bello-Dambatta et al. 2013;Kayaga and Smout 2011). The most commonly used strategy in a campaign is to disseminate information about changes in water usage and habits to citizens in layman terms through various forms of media, including billboard advertising and social media (March et al. 2012;Sauri 2020). Awareness campaigns targeted at households have been implemented in all ASEAN countries. ...
... Aside from creating water security concerns, water shortages can result in inconvenience and economic costs for the community and a loss of producer surplus for the water service provider(March et al. 2012; Wilson et al. 2021). 3 No use of sprinklers or other watering systems. ...
Water users’ consumption behaviour may be influenced by non-economic tools to reduce their water usage and/or shape water-use practices and habits. Such measures include, but are not limited to, education and awareness-raising campaigns, water restrictions, water-saving devices and labelling schemes, water efficiency audits, and consumer outreach through utility bills. Water service providers are gradually incorporating these as part of their WDM strategies. In ASEAN, non-price mechanisms are widely implemented through various measures with demonstrated effectiveness in outcomes.
... 'Soft interventions' largely target residential water users with the purpose of modifying personal water-use behaviours through information dissemination and education . The most commonly used strategy in a campaign is to disseminate information about changes in water usage and habits to citizens in layman terms through various forms of media, including billboard advertising and social media (March et al. 2012;Sauri 2020). Awareness campaigns targeted at households have been implemented in all ASEAN countries. ...
... Aside from creating water security concerns, water shortages can result in inconvenience and economic costs for the community and a loss of producer surplus for the water service provider(March et al. 2012; Wilson et al. 2021). 3 No use of sprinklers or other watering systems. ...
This open access book highlights knowledge and expertise in Urban Water Demand Management (WDM) in ASEAN through comprehensive literature review and analysis, as well as stakeholder consultations. It documents urban WDM policies, initiatives, and practices that have demonstrated effective implementation outcomes across various contexts and which are expected to be relevant for cities in ASEAN. A WDM typology developed for this book identifies four key WDM measures, namely: water losses, economic instruments, non-price mechanisms, and alternative water reuse systems in the ASEAN context. Case illustrations of their effective implementation in different ASEAN cities are also included.
... In future decades, water scarcity will continue to be a major constraint for human activities, particularly agriculture, in many regions of the world (Rijsberman 2006). Although climate change is widely recognized as a key driver of water availability (Bates et al. 2008;Vörösmarty et al. 2000), sociodemographic, economic, and technological changes can be also major drivers of hydrological droughts (March et al. 2012;Moss et al. 2010;Vörösmarty et al. 2000), which are periods "with inadequate surface and subsurface water resources for established water uses of a given water resource management system" (Mishra and Singh 2010). Drought depends not only on resource levels but also on water use and management systems. ...
... In agricultural landscapes, where irrigation is the main determinant of water issues, water deficits at the watershed level result from daily site-specific interactions between farm crop-management strategies, hydrology of water resources, and water-resource management . The spatial distribution of cropping systems strongly determines dynamics of the state of water resources (e.g., surface water, groundwater, reservoirs) March et al. 2012;Leenhardt et al. 2012b). Participatory and modeling assessment methods support and guide stakeholders in designing and assessing potential solutions to natural-resource management problems (Voinov et al. 2016;Leenhardt et al. 2012b;Voinov and Bousquet 2010;Bots and van Daalen 2008). ...
... In future decades, water scarcity will continue to be a major constraint for human activities, particularly agriculture, in many regions of the world (Rijsberman 2006). Although climate change is widely recognized as a key driver of water availability (Bates et al. 2008;Vörösmarty et al. 2000), sociodemographic, economic, and technological changes can be also major drivers of hydrological droughts (March et al. 2012;Moss et al. 2010;Vörösmarty et al. 2000), which are periods "with inadequate surface and subsurface water resources for established water uses of a given water resource management system" (Mishra and Singh 2010). Drought depends not only on resource levels but also on water use and management systems. ...
... In agricultural landscapes, where irrigation is the main determinant of water issues, water deficits at the watershed level result from daily site-specific interactions between farm crop-management strategies, hydrology of water resources, and water-resource management . The spatial distribution of cropping systems strongly determines dynamics of the state of water resources (e.g., surface water, groundwater, reservoirs) March et al. 2012;Leenhardt et al. 2012b). Participatory and modeling assessment methods support and guide stakeholders in designing and assessing potential solutions to natural-resource management problems (Voinov et al. 2016;Leenhardt et al. 2012b;Voinov and Bousquet 2010;Bots and van Daalen 2008). ...
This chapter addresses collection and integration of large amounts of data from a variety of sources when developing agronomic approaches at the landscape and territory levels. Data commonly used in agro-environmental studies are climate, soils, land cover and land use (including cropping practices). They are used as inputs for indicator- or model-based assessment methods. Additional information is now required for agroecological studies, such as spatial distribution of weeds, pests, and diseases; biodiversity; or landscape features. Gathering and using this scattered and heterogeneous information for integrated studies at watershed, regional, or national levels still requires further methodological efforts. Remote sensing is a source of data that continuously progresses in spatial and temporal resolution, and accessibility. Such integrative approaches are illustrated for a case study in France. The next challenges and opportunities for data collection, integration, and governance are discussed, with a focus on mainland France.KeywordsClimatic dataSoil dataLand coverCropping practicesRemote sensingMapsDatabases
... In their review, March et al. [41] defined scenario analysis as internally consistent stories about ways that a specific system might evolve in the future. Scenarios are plausible accounts of the future rather than forecasts. ...
... Booth et al. [54] remarked that the combination of narrative and quantitative scenarios has mostly been applied at global to national scales. In their review of water scarcity scenarios, March et al. [41] pointed out the "hegemony" of climate as a driver of change, but they also identified several studies which incorporated other drivers of change. Booth et al. [54] note that there is a growing need for methodologies to translate qualitative scenarios into quantitative drivers. ...
... However, those performed to date also focus on a specific impact, e.g. water scenario analyses (March et al., 2012), on specific methods, e.g. multi-criteria assessments (Allain et al., 2017), decision support systems for landscape management ( Zasada et al., 2017) or on synthesis and qualitative analysis of the literature on landscape approaches and their potential operationalisation (Freeman et al., 2015). ...
... Thus, to our knowledge, no quantitative systematic review has been performed to date on model-based assessment of agricultural changes, to identify consistent groups of studies defining different topics. The only studies addressing the objective of group identification have focused on water scenario analyses (March et al., 2012) or on biodiversity only (Chopin et al., 2019), the latter using similar keywords to those used in our study. Hence, the objectives of this study were to (1) assemble a comprehensive dataset of published studies designing alternative agricultural landscapes and assessing associated changes and impacts through modelling, and (2) identify and analyse study structure, trends in knowledge and associated methods and models employed in this dataset. ...
Understanding the range of approaches available for assessing the impacts of agricultural changes at landscape scale is important when addressing local to global issues. Using a topic modelling approach, we reviewed the literature on impact modelling of agricultural landscapes. A search in Web of Science using the keywords model, agricultural systems and landscape yielded 1,975 hits, of which 514 papers met our selection criteria. The most salient terms fell within six groups: change, scale, pollution, biodiversity, practices and terms on biophysical/regulatory conditions. We identified four main topics: water quality, water quantity/energy crops, biodiversity and Integrated Assessment. Water management issues were more likely to be covered in North American researches, while issues related to Integrated Assessment were mainly covered in European studies. We found no relationship between topic and model type. We conclude that future integrated studies should consider the diversity of agricultural systems in governance of water and biodiversity issues.
... Stakeholder interaction involves the assessment of what is relevant for decision making. Regionally downscaled participatory scenario development integrates stakeholder views with research to understand long-term changes, and investigates the potential futures of socio-ecological systems [1,[18][19][20]. An example of such an approach is the creation of a knowledge-to-action-network in Idaho (USA) [21], where stakeholders and researches decided to plan for a future with less water as an effect of climate change. ...
... Hydrological catchments often serve as a convenient scale for environmental system analysis [19], as they have natural boundaries and represent units for natural resource management [39,40]. They provide water supply for food and energy production and domestic use, as well as touristic infrastructure (e.g., artificial snow making). ...
While science widely acknowledges the necessity of climate change adaptation (CCA), concrete strategies for CCA by major land-use actor groups at a local level are largely missing. Immediate economic challenges often prevent the establishment of long-term collective strategies. However, collective decisions on a communal level regarding land use are crucial for CCA strategies, given the interdependencies of farming with forestry, tourism, and other economic sectors, especially in mountain areas. This paper presents inter- and trans-disciplinary learning processes, which have evolved into a project modelling the hydrological effects of combined future climate and land-use changes based on the combined scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in an Alpine valley (Brixental in Tyrol/Austria). Locally adapted scenarios illustrate future land-use changes as a result of both climate change and different socio-economic developments. The hydrological results show how an increase in the forested area reduces streamflow (as a measure of water availability) in the long term. For local stakeholders, the process demonstrated clearly the interdependence of different economic sectors and the necessity for collective action at a regional level to influence socio-economic development. Moreover, it made them aware that local decisions on future land use may influence the effects of climate change. Consistent storylines helped stakeholders to visualize a desired future and to see their scope of influence. The transdisciplinary research process allowed local stakeholders to translate the hydrological modelling results into a concrete local CCA strategy.
... Scenario analysis, as part of the methodological toolkit of science-policy interfaces [34], has grown significantly over the last two decades. Likewise, the number of approaches to develop scenarios has increased (for an overview see e.g., March et al. [17] or Rounsevell and Metzger [25]). For our qualitative scenario development, the approach by Gausemeier et al. [24] is applied, which is well suited for structuring complex systems of influence factors. ...
... The thus identified 22 generally relevant influence factors were categorised into five different segments that these factors might be attributed to, comprising society, technology, economy, ecology and politics, following the approach of Steinmüller et al. [36] for "Forest Futures 2100". To cover a broad range of relevant influence factors it is considered essential in the literature "to build a coherent image of the future" [17] (p. 133). ...
Driven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways.
... Regarding scenario drivers, current regional-scale scenario simulation research mostly focuses on direct drivers such as climate change [21], land-use change [22], and their impacts on future ES. For instance, a recent review found that over 90% of 52 aquatic ES scenario simulation studies only considered one or two easily quantifiable direct drivers, with less consideration of indirect drivers such as population, policy, and economy [23]. The interdisciplinary nature and difficulty of their quantification may be significant reasons for neglecting these indirect driving factors. ...
Integrating scenarios and models to assess the sustainability of future regional ecosystem services is at the forefront of ecosystem service science. However, there are a lack of comprehensive reviews on this topic. Therefore, this study provides a systematic review of the research progress considering two aspects: ecosystem service scenario simulation and sustainability assessments based on the concept of a “safe operating space.” We found that (1) a number of studies have already started to explore methods for evaluating the sustainability of future ecosystem services; (2) in terms of scenario construction methods, most existing studies have adopted the global classical scenario downscaling approach, while less consideration has been given to the important socio-economic-environmental characteristics of a region itself, which affect the credibility and policy relevance of scenarios; and (3) in terms of sustainability simulation evaluation, most existing studies are qualitative comparisons of the sustainability of ecosystem services within different scenarios, while quantitative methods are lacking. We proposed an approach that combined participatory scenario construction and a regional safe operating space to address the above identified challenges. Successfully implementing this research approach would provide decision makers with more accurate and practical early warning information regarding the sustainability of future ecosystem services.
... intra-and intersectoral coordination and institutional integration, assisting capacity for systemic change, and recognizing the diversity of values, perspectives, and knowledge systems (Visseren-Hamakers et al. 2021). The PSP field has developed a large variety of techniques to deal with these governance issues that can be framed into quantitative assessments (e.g., "Interactive Cross Impact Simulation" and "Fuzzy Cognitive Map based scenarios" [Amer et al. 2013]), qualitative approaches (e.g., "Rich pictures" [Monk and Howard 1998], "Value-based scenario planning" [Rawluk et al. 2018], and art science [Pereira et al. 2019, Heras et al. 2021), or into a combination of methods (e.g., "Story and simulation" [Alcamo 2008, March et al. 2012). The application of such techniques, individually or in concert, has led to PSP being regarded as a productive approach for guiding social-ecological systems governance in the face of uncertainties (Peterson et al. 2003, Ruiz-Mallén et al. 2015 while supporting more inclusive responses to sustainability transformations (Pereira et al. 2019). ...
Participatory scenario planning is a powerful approach to guide diverse stakeholders in creating and reflecting on visions of plausible and desired futures. However, this process requires tools to guide collective action to implement such visions within management agendas. This study develops, applies, and analyzes a novel visual tool within a virtual participatory scenario planning process about the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (Madrid, Spain). Building on the identification of stakeholders who might engage in scenario strategies, the visual tool guided them in defining tasks to be developed and envisioning their willingness to collaborate in their implementation. We qualitatively analyzed data from recordings, online field observations, a post-survey from the scenario planning process, and a successive policy workshop. Our findings show that the visual tool fosters dialogue between stakeholders to redistribute tasks for working together on needed strategies in the protected area while promoting reflection on their willingness to collaborate as a group to implement them. The visual tool provided graphic outcomes for nine strategies corresponding to pictures of who may or may not be willing to engage in implementing such strategies. We argue that the visual tool is a robust method that can complement participatory scenario planning processes by providing a useful starting point for creating action networks to incorporate the resulting scenario strategies into management agendas. We deliberate on the nature of the visual tool as a boundary object and discuss its role as a decision-support tool. In particular, we reflect on the potential contributions and limitations of the visual tool to four dimensions of participatory conservation governance during participatory scenario planning processes: inclusivity, integration, adaptation, and pluralism. Our study provides a practical orientation to adapt the tool to other contexts and knowledge co-creation processes.
... Sustainable water resource management is typical for environmental management problems emerging from complex social-ecological systems. It deeply depends upon water users strategies, land use management and global environmental and societal changes (March et al., 2012). IAM approaches have been extensively applied to identify water and land management strategies allowing balancing socioeconomic (often agriculture) and water resource issues . ...
... Integrated modelling is a useful method for functionally exploring the impacts of most of these factors (Alcamo et al., 2003;Jakeman et al., 2006;Letcher et al., 2006;Therond et al., 2014;Zhang and Guo, 2016). It can be used to evaluate and compare alternative agricultural and/or water management systems at the watershed scale (March et al., 2012). It is essential to explicitly model anthropogenic management strategies and their consequences to properly simulate the hydrological dynamics of highly entropized basins (Martin et al., 2016). ...
The expanded use of water-intensive crops, such as maize, has exacerbated soil drying and water scarcity in watersheds with large irrigated surfaces. As we face climbing drought risks, water can be conserved in such areas by adopting agricultural systems that limit water deficits at the watershed level. In this study, integrated modeling was used to assess how different approaches to cultivating irrigated maize influenced water balance in France’s Aveyron watershed, which experiences strong and recurrent water deficits. Ten-year simulations were performed using the MAELIA model, which can simulate at fine-scale spatial and temporal interactions among agricultural activities, the functioning of soil-crop systems, hydrological dynamics, and water resource management. Three specific scenarios were modeled in addition to the benchmark situation representing current management practices: 1) maize irrigation was carried out on an as-need basis, where all farms were equipped with a decision‑support tool for assessing water stress in real time; 2) maize monocultures were replaced by a wheat/maize succession; and 3) the two previous scenarios were combined. In the first two scenarios, irrigation withdrawal volumes declined substantially, eliminating approximately 30 % of the watershed’s water deficit due to a better scheduling of the irrigation to the needs and by the replacement of maize by wheat with lower water requirements. There was also a slight increase in river flow rates in the summer and a slight decrease in annual drainage. The third scenario went even further in lowering withdrawal volumes and increasing flow rates thanks to additive effects: withdrawal volumes declined by 28 %, and river flow rates increased by 4 %. This study demonstrated that combining water-saving practices with crop diversification holds promise for limiting water deficits in irrigated watersheds while having a negligible impact on crop yields. It also demonstrated the usefulness of a multiagent integrated modeling platform that can conduct simulations at fine levels of spatial and temporal resolution on both agronomic and hydrologic aspects
... Table S2). We hypothesized that regional stakeholders might propose bolder strategies, while local stakeholders would gravitate towards more restrictive but locally adapted strategies that account for the diversity of local conditions and constraints, as argued in March et al. (2012). Five regional stakeholders participated in both of the regional workshops. ...
Context
Climate change threatens wine growing systems in varying ways because of their high diversity, even at a local scale. This diversity needs to be considered when designing and assessing adaptation strategies to coordinate better with these diverse local conditions.
Objective
We developed a participatory modeling approach to (1) design adaptation strategies in a viticultural watershed in southern France, (2) numerically and spatially evaluate their effects under future climatic conditions, and (3) discuss the results with stakeholders.
Methods
We organized two sets of collective workshops, before and after a simulation phase. During the workshops, we designed four adaptation strategies that correspond to different ways to combine adaptation measures proposed by stakeholders. A spatially explicit model was used to evaluate the effects of six adaptation measures (late varieties, irrigation, reducing canopy size, adjusting cover cropping, reducing density, and shading) at field scale and combinations of them at watershed scale. Simulations were realized under a high-emissions climate change scenario RCP 8.5. Model-based evaluations were followed by discussions with stakeholders. The cost-effectiveness of adaptation strategies was estimated at farm scale using an indicator designed by the stakeholders.
Results and conclusions
The spatial combination of adaptation measures in a viticultural watershed provided options for adapting wine growing systems to climate change. A delayed harvest strategy with currently available late varieties provided only minimal relief from high temperature during ripening. A water stress limitation strategy would compensate for production losses if disruptive adaptations (e.g., reduced density) were adopted and if more vineyards were irrigated. A relocation strategy would encourage premium wine production in the constrained mountainous areas, where grapevines systems are historically adapted to limited water conditions. A soil improvement strategy was mentioned but not evaluated in the model due to scarce data and literature on the possible improvement of soil water holding capacity.
Significance
The sharing of knowledge between researchers, technical experts, and wine growers enabled the construction of a common understanding of the local impacts and adaptation potential to climate change in the watershed. In further research, this knowledge could help decision makers to define pathways for adaptive actions at farm scale.
... Each set of workshops included two workshops, that were conducted with two different groups: local stakeholders (winegrowers, representatives of cooperative cellar and PDO syndicates, technical advisors and agro-environmental coordinator) and regional stakeholders (extension and advisory services, and regional policy makers). We hypothesized that regional stakeholders would bring more extreme strategies, while local stakeholders would bring more restricted but locally adapted strategies based on the exploitation of current diversity and constraints, as argued in March et al. (2012). Five regional stakeholders participated to the two regional workshops. ...
La viticulture méditerranéenne est un emblème culturel et économique particulièrement menacé par le changement climatique : avancée du cycle phénologique, baisse des rendements et de la qualité de la récolte. Pour limiter ces impacts négatifs, il est essentiel de mobiliser dès maintenant plusieurs leviers d’adaptation comme les cépages tolérants à la sécheresse, l’ombrage, l’irrigation, etc. Cependant, les communautés scientifique et professionnelle peinent à fournir des préconisations claires sur les stratégies à mettre en oeuvre pour articuler ces leviers à une échelle locale. Cette thèse vise à explorer l’hypothèse selon laquelle la combinaison de leviers techniques, ainsi que leur distribution dans le paysage, donnent des marges de manoeuvre pour adapter la viticulture au changement climatique. Elle contribue à construire et évaluer quantitativement des stratégies d’adaptation qui combinent plusieurs leviers techniques au sein d’un bassin versant viticole (45 km²). Elle propose une démarche originale de modélisation participative, composée d’une série d’ateliers collectifs entrecoupés de phases de modélisation. Les principaux résultats de cette thèse sont triples. Premièrement, la mobilisation précoce des acteurs dans la démarche a permis de développer un modèle original dont les composantes répondent aux attentes des participants. Ce modèle ad hoc intègre des modèles existants (phénologie, bilan hydrique, ruissellement) et originaux (modèle de rendement GraY), aux échelles de la parcelle et du bassin versant. Deuxièmement, la construction collective des stratégies d’adaptation a favorisé la prise en compte de plusieurs facteurs spatiaux (type de sol, climat, type de production, accès à l’irrigation) pour construire des stratégies pertinentes au sein d’un territoire. Ces stratégies visent à retarder les dates de vendanges, améliorer l’efficience de l’eau et relocaliser le vignoble. Troisièmement, la simulation de ces stratégies sous conditions climatiques futures a montré la capacité de certains secteurs à réduire les pertes de rendement liées au changement climatique en mobilisant plusieurs leviers innovants. Les échanges réguliers avec les acteurs ont enrichi l’évaluation par le modèle, en y ajoutant des aspects économiques (ratio coût/bénéfice), techniques (faisabilité) et sociaux (souhaitabilité). L’approche originale proposée dans cette thèse a permis de rapprocher les acteurs de la filière viticole des travaux issus de la modélisation. Cette approche ouvre ainsi des perspectives pour orienter les travaux de modélisation futurs vers des outils plus adaptés aux attentes d’une filière ou d’un territoire. Elle encourage également la combinaison d’outils de simulation quantitatifs avec des approches participatives pour répondre aux enjeux, entre autres climatiques, du XXIème siècle.
... their resistance to change) such as the influence of disruptive events and regime shifts (Nilsson et al., 2019), or the potential for power relations to influence ecosystem values (Berbés-Blázquez et al., 2016). Temporal dynamics have been explored in some scenario analyses, such as using multiple time period horizons, for example, by March et al. (2012), but these approaches do not account for potential short-term changes or disturbances that may affect future visions. Follow-up research to explore changes in visions are rare in methodologies employed to date, particularly in the context of protected areas. ...
1. Envisioning processes enable protected area managers to chart a course for future management to reach desired goals, but unexpected changes that could affect future visions are not usually considered. The global COVID-19 pandemic provided an opportunity to explore changes in stakeholder visions, the values that underpin the visions, and their perceptions of landscape changes and the underlying drivers (e.g. climate change, mass tourism and demographic trends).
2. Through a mixed-methods approach in this post-evaluation study, we gathered comparative data on these issues from stakeholders in the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park, Spain, between July 2019 (pre-pandemic) and October 2020 (mid-pandemic).
3. Our qualitative analysis demonstrates that pre-pandemic, differences in visions for protected area management were largely spurred by different perceptions of drivers of change, rather than differences in values or perceived landscape changes, which were similar across different vision themes.
4. One year later, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the majority of stakeholders reported that their values, visions and perceptions of drivers did not change despite this large-scale disturbance. Of the 20%–30% of stakeholders that did report changes, visions generally shifted towards greater prioritization of biodiversity and nature conservation as a result of heightened perceptions of the impacts of drivers of change associated with an increase in the numbers of park visitors. These drivers included mass tourism, mountain recreation, lack of environmental awareness, and change in values and traditions.
5. Our findings reinforce the importance of adaptive and inclusive management of protected areas, including enhancing transparency and communications regarding factors driving change in the landscape, and integration of local and traditional knowledge and stakeholder perceptions of changes and drivers. Furthermore, management plans integrating stakeholder values have the potential to stay relevant even in the face of wildcard events such as a pandemic.
6. To enhance the relevancy of visions and scenarios in conservation and land-use planning, scenario planning methodologies should more strongly consider different potential disturbances and how drivers of change in the near and far future can be affected by wildcard events such as a pandemic.
... Approaches such as scenario development, modelling and evaluation are classic ways to explore adaptation strategies in the water resource domain and to address climate change effects [3]. They are associated with participatory approaches, and in recent decades several participatory stakeholder frameworks have been designed and implemented in projects that address adaptation strategies for groundwater management [4]. ...
Climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and natural resources. Adaptive solutions must be designed locally with stakeholders. We developed the Approach for Building Adaptation Scenarios with Stakeholders (ABASS), which aims to identify adaptation policies and corresponding scenarios of natural resource management in the context of climate change. Its originality is the combination of different existing participatory methods, organized in three phases. In step 1, experts identify local environmental problems on a map and build the assumption tree of local climate change effects. In step 2, experts identify stakeholders. Step 3 leads to the construction of adaptation scenarios with stakeholders in two phases. First, in a participatory workshop gathering numerous stakeholders, the assumption tree is presented to help stakeholders identify potential policies that address the effects of climate change. Then, using the map produced in step 1, each group of stakeholders separately translates each potential policy into a detailed scenario. We applied ABASS to the context of groundwater overexploitation in South India. Two policies at the farm level emerged as consensual: (i) ponds to harvest runoff water and (ii) drip irrigation to conserve water; but their implementation highlights the differences of opinion among stakeholders.
... We used a GIS-based scenario modelling methodology to investigate potential impacts on the sandspit whilst simultaneously considering both open coast and estuarine shorelines. This approach focuses on the conceptualisation of plausible futures which may lie outside the realm of past experience and yet are distinctly possible (Bardsley and Sweeney 2010;March et al. 2012). Uncertainty is addressed through the exploration of alternative futures, which differs markedly from probabilistic approaches that attempt to directly incorporate uncertainties associated with a future event (Peterson et al. 2003). ...
Barrier sandspits are biodiverse natural features that regulate the development of lagoon systems and are popular areas for human settlement. Despite many studies on barrier island dynamics, few have investigated the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on sandspits. In peri-urban settings, we hypothesised that shoreline environment change would be strongly dependent on contemporary land use decisions, whilst modern engineering capabilities also present new opportunities for working with nature. Our study site in Christchurch, New Zealand, included a unique example of SLR caused by tectonic subsidence and an associated managed retreat initiative. We used a novel scenario modelling approach to evaluate both shorelines simultaneously for 0.25m SLR increments and incorporating open coast sediment supply in 25-year periods. Our key questions addressed the potential impacts of shoreline change on open coast dune and estuarine-coast saltmarsh ecosystems and implications for the role of ‘nature-based’ climate change solutions. The results identify challenges for dune conservation, with a third of the dune system eliminated in the ‘1-m SLR in 100-year’ scenario. The associated exposure of urban areas to natural hazards such as extreme storms and tsunami will likely fuel demand for seawalls unless natural alternatives can be enabled. In contrast, the managed retreat initiative on the backshore presents an opportunity to restart saltmarsh accretion processes seaward of coastal defences with the potential to reverse decades of degradation. Considering both shorelines simultaneously highlights the existence of pinch-points from opposing forces that result in small land volumes above the tidal range. Societal adaptation is delicately poised between the paradigms of resisting or accommodating nature and challenged by the long perimeter and confined nature of the sandspit feature. The use of innovative policy measures in disaster recovery contexts, as highlighted here, may offer a beneficial framework for enabling nature-based solutions to climate change and natural hazards.
... Other information relates to the behavior of key stakeholders-farmers' choice of crop rotation procedures, irrigation strategy, mobilized technologies, dam management method, but also volumes of water withdrawn, volumes discarded, etc. These data are used to calibrate the functioning of the modeling platform before using it for the construction of prospective scenarios for the evolution of the resource (March et al. 2012), related economic activities and territories on the horizon 2030. In addition to collecting data from the institutions that manage them, their formatting and integration into a GIS that provides the spatial layers of the multi-agent system, their harmonization are required to verify integrity constraints which guarantee the consistency of the model. ...
... Water shortages lead to inconvenience for residents, the imposition of an economic cost on the community, and a loss of a producer surplus for the water authority (Dandy 1992;Hensher et al. 2005;March et al. 2012). In such cases, residents look for alternative ways to avoid or comply with the restrictions. ...
This study provides a quantitative assessment of the willingness to pay to avoid water use restrictions taking into account psychological, attitudinal and behavioural influences. We analyse determinants of households’ willingness to pay to ensure a continuous water supply in Brisbane, Australia. The results show that in addition to socio-economic variables, attitudinal and behavioural factors—including values, norms, and beliefs—influence residents’ valuation. They also underscore the importance of accounting for socio-economic variables and pertinent psychological and behavioural aspects when implementing policies to manage and conserve urban water.
... Sustainable water resource management is typical for environmental management problems emerging from complex social-ecological systems. It deeply depends upon water users strategies, land use management and global environmental and societal changes (March et al., 2012). IAM approaches have been extensively applied to identify water and land management strategies allowing balancing socioeconomic (often agriculture) and water resource issues . ...
Sustainable water resource management is typical of environmental management problems emerging from complex social-ecological systems. It deeply depends upon water user strategies, land use management and water governance systems. MAELIA, a "policy issue" modelling platform, allows performing integrated assessment at watershed level of a wide range of scenarios regarding water and land use management strategies in combination with global changes. It has been developed through a strong analysis of different French water management situations and an inductive modelling process. It allows representing dynamic interactions between human activities (farming practices), ecological processes (hydrology and crop growth), and governance systems (water regulations and releases from dams) at fine spatiotemporal resolutions in order to handle actual problems of water managers and issues of the main water users (farmers). MAELIA includes original farmer, dam manager and state services (software) agents.
... Both studies address multiple drivers (including socioeconomic drivers such as changes in the values and population) compared to most studies that address only one or few drivers at a time (cf. March et al., 2012). Despite the difference in spatial scale, most elements included in the modelling are similar, including transition rules for population and land use change, leakage of land-applied nutrients, and description of wastewater treatment technology. ...
This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs of the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.
... Modelling and scenario exploration, as typical methods in analytical-systemic approaches, help surfacing feedback loops and the range of potential effects of a change. However the model embodies a shared representation of the social-ecological system under scrutiny (Kok, Rothman, & Patel, 2006;March, Therond, & Leenhardt, 2012;Tschakert et al., 2014;Vervoort, Kok, van Lammeren, & Veldkamp, 2010). This representation is often monolithic and offers little room for the confrontation of different value judgments. ...
Dealing jointly with both systemic and social complexity is a challenge that we face with sustainability issues. However, joining these two aspects of complexity is more a “post-normal science” call than an effective practice. Roughly speaking, analytical-systemic approaches focus on the complex-system side, while deliberative approaches deal with the multi-actor side. Our framework for evaluating different alternative actions, called the S²CE, is intended to reconcile the two approaches. It takes as premises: the recognition of plural values, which makes competing actions only weakly comparable; and the existence of irreducible uncertainties, which gives a heuristic status to the future. The framework hybridises an integrated assessment and modelling exercise, with a deliberative multi-criteria evaluation one, and concludes with a reflexive stage. Application to agricultural water management illustrates the strength of this cross-fertilization. First, the use of computer simulations has been found to enrich collective deliberation by helping stakeholders form and transform their value judgments, and by raising critical questions about options that appeared consensual. Second, the deliberative evaluation informed the integrated assessment and modelling by revealing some model limitations, along with the model’s unequal capacity to reflect the claims of different stakeholders.
... Subsequently, the modified hydrological cycle will affect human decisions and behaviours in the upcoming feedback loops of hydrological and social systems (Troy et al. 2015). With the expansion of anthropogenic evolutionary relationships with the environment, both hydrological and social systems have the potential to create emergent dynamics, which are not anticipated (Zehe and Sivapalan 2009, March et al. 2012, Sivapalan and Blöschl 2015. These new dynamics may amplify critical challenges such as anthropogenic droughts and water scarcity at regional and global scales (Wagener et al. 2010, Bark et al. 2016. ...
Developing a general framework to capture the complexities associated with the non-linear and adaptive nature of farmers facing water resources scarcity is a challenging problem. This paper integrates agent-based modelling (ABM) and a data mining method to develop a hybrid socio-hydrological framework to provide future insights for policy-makers. The data associated with the farmers’ main characteristics were collected through field surveys and interviews. Afterwards, the association rule was employed to discover the main patterns representing the farmers’ agricultural decisions.The discovered patterns were then used as the behavioural rules in ABM to simulate the agricultural activities. The proposed framework has beenwas appliedto explore the interactions between agricultural activities and the main river feeding the Urmia-Lake, Iran. The outcomes indicate that farmers’ acquisitive traits and belongingshave significant impacts on their socio-hydrological interactions. The reported values of the efficiency criteria may support the satisfactory performance of the proposed framework.
... Other information relates to the behavior of key stakeholders-farmers' choice of crop rotation procedures, irrigation strategy, mobilized technologies, dam management method, but also volumes of water withdrawn, volumes discarded, etc. These data are used to calibrate the functioning of the modeling platform before using it for the construction of prospective scenarios for the evolution of the resource (March et al. 2012), related economic activities and territories on the horizon 2030. In addition to collecting data from the institutions that manage them, their formatting and integration into a GIS that provides the spatial layers of the multi-agent system, their harmonization are required to verify integrity constraints which guarantee the consistency of the model. ...
Actors involved in water resource management and development policies from the large water cycle (at the river basin level) to the small water cycle (drinking water, sanitation and distribution) are numerous and diversified, in their institutional and economic positioning, as well as in the logic of the approaches they develop. In view of the expectations of a comprehensive policy in this field and of the obviously limited results obtained so far, the phasing of these approaches and the coordination of these actors is a major axis of the actions to be carried out in order to better manage the water resources. We argue the need for an explicit and assumed strengthening of the coordination of water stakeholders at all levels of governance. We question the reasons for these partial successes and failures and the way to overcome these difficulties, questions renewed on the basis of recent experiences. In particular, interdisciplinary and intersectoral collaboration using new hybrid modeling approaches (coupling multi-agent system, geographic information system, equation models, cellular automata, etc.), allows to precisely simulate the scenarios of evolution of water resource management and development, to assess ex ante their social, economic and environmental impacts and to anticipate the contribution of an increased coordination of water stakeholders in a logic of development-friendly actions.
... Climate change and the global warming effects are widely recognized during the recent decades, and therefore water availability and water management issues are of special significance in all arid and semi-arid regions worldwide (March et al., 2012). Agriculture is likely to encounter the most serious threats due to water scarcity, as it is the major consumer of water. ...
The reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation and the use of biosolids and manures as soil amendment constitute significant pathways for the introduction of the contaminants of emerging concern (CECS) to the agricultural environment. Consequently, CECS are routinely detected in TWW-irrigated agricultural soils and runoff from such sites,
in biosolids- and manure-amended soils, and in surface and groundwater systems and sediments receiving TWW. Crop plants grown in such contaminated agricultural environments have been found to uptake and accumulate CECS in their tissues, constituting possible vectors of introducing CECs into the food chain; an issue that is presently considered of high priority, thus needing intensive investigation. This
review paper aims at highlighting the responsible mechanisms for the uptake of CECS by plants and the ability of each crop plant species to uptake and accumulate CECs in its edible tissues, thus providing tools for mitigating the introduction of these contaminants into the food chain. Both biotic (e.g. plants' genotype and physiological state, soil fauna) and abiotic factors (e.g. soil pore water chemistry, physicochemical properties of CECS, environmental perturbations) have been proven to influence the ability of crop plants to uptake and accumulate CECS. According to authors' estimates, based on the thorough elaboration of knowledge produced by existing relevant studies, the ability of crop plants to uptake and accumulate CECS decrease in the order of leafy vegetables > root vegetables > cereals and fodder crops > fruit vegetables; though, the uptake of CECS by important crop plants, such as fruit trees, is not yet evaluated. Overall, further studies must be performed to estimate the potential of crop plants to uptake and accumulate CECs in their edible tissues, and to characterize the risk for human health represented by their presence in human and livestock food products.
... Todas estas propuestas se basan en una amplia literatura sobre el uso de métodos de escenarios futuros en la gestión de los recursos naturales (Berkhout et al., 2002;Westcott, 2004;Carpenter et al., 2006;Hatzilacou et al., 2007;Lempert et al., 2006;Alcamo et al., 2007;Alcamo, 2008;March et al., 2012;Moore et al., 2013). Poniendo el acento en la participación de actores y expertos se contribuye a aumentar la relevancia, legitimidad e impacto de los ECC y las medidas de adaptación asociadas (Adger, 2006;Rothman, 2008;Berkhout et al., 2002;Pahl-Wostl, 2008). ...
p>This paper develops a participatory methodology to integrate farmer’s vision in the design of an adaptation strategy to global change in the Jucar River basin. It aims at answering three questions: How farmers perceive climate change impacts; which adaptation measures they consider; and how they assess these measures. Participatory workshops with different actors were held in two areas (La Ribera and La Mancha Oriental). This methodology has allowed identifying the local impacts and consequences of global change, and the difficulties of the adaptation processes to climate change scenarios.</p
... Todas estas propuestas se basan en una amplia literatura sobre el uso de métodos de escenarios futuros en la gestión de los recursos naturales (Berkhout et al., 2002;Westcott, 2004;Carpenter et al., 2006;Hatzilacou et al., 2007;Lempert et al., 2006;Alcamo et al., 2007;Alcamo, 2008;March et al., 2012;Moore et al., 2013). Poniendo el acento en la participación de actores y expertos se contribuye a aumentar la relevancia, legitimidad e impacto de los ECC y las medidas de adaptación asociadas (Adger, 2006;Rothman, 2008;Berkhout et al., 2002;Pahl-Wostl, 2008). ...
This paper develops a participatory methodology to integrate farmer’s vision in the design
of an adaptation strategy to global change in the Jucar River basin. It aims at answering three questions: How farmers perceive climate change impacts; which adaptation measures they consider; and how they assess these measures. Participatory workshops with different actors were held in two areas (La Ribera and La Mancha Oriental). This methodology has allowed identifying the local impacts and consequences of global change, and the difficulties of the adaptation processes to climate change scenarios.
... Climate change and the global warming effects are widely recognized during the recent decades, and therefore water availability and water management issues are of special significance in all arid and semi-arid regions worldwide (March et al., 2012). Agriculture is likely to encounter the most serious threats due to water scarcity, as it is the major consumer of water. ...
... Scenarios can be established through participatory or 117 through individual, often analytically based research approaches (van Notten et al., 2003;Alcamo 118 2009). A participatory approach captures the high diversity of drivers affecting the system and 119 identifies potential adaptations ( March et al. 2012). The advantage of the participatory approach is 120 to support a realistic identification and feedback on the assessment of socio-economic drivers andInvolving in particular experts ensures the relevance of the work for practical stakeholder needs, 123 decision support as well as for recommendations on exploitation strategies. ...
• We analyse the market potential of nanoparticle technologies for remediation.
• We link anthroposphere (market, policy, society) & lithosphere (soil, groundwater).
• We apply an explorative, deliberative, expert based scenario development approach.
• We find that several factors drive market evolution and conclude on interventions.
• Dialogue of stakeholders and validated information are most active drivers.
--> A deliberate expert-based scenario approach is applied to better understand the likely determinants of the evolution of the market for nanoparticles use in remediation in Europe until 2025. An initial set of factors had been obtained from a literature review and was complemented by a workshop and key-informant interviews. In further expert engaging formats - focus groups, workshops, conferences, surveys - this initial set of factors was condensed and engaged experts scored the factors regarding their importance for being likely to influence the market development. An interaction matrix was obtained identifying the factors being most active in shaping the market development in Europe by 2025, namely “Science-Policy-Interface” and “Validated information on nanoparticle application potential”. Based on these, potential scenarios were determined and development of factors discussed. Conclusions are offered on achievable interventions to enhance nanoremediation deployment.
... The participatory scenario development approach makes it possible to explore potential future developments by eliciting the perceptions of local actors regarding land use changes (Biggs et al. 2007;Reed et al. 2009;Plieninger et al. 2013). Based on several overviews of scenario methods and techniques (provided by Börjeson et al. 2006;Bishop et al. 2007;Mahmoud et al. 2009;Reed et al. 2009;March et al. 2012;Priess and Hauck 2014), we combined the concept of multi-scale scenarios (Biggs et al. 2007) with the integrated scenario approach developed by Priess and Hauck (2014). Prior to this, we conducted a social network analysis at the regional and local level, to identify the most important actors for GI implementation in the agricultural landscapes of Saxony-Anhalt ( Fig. 1; Hauck et al. 2016). ...
Green infrastructure (GI) has been identified as helping to protect Europe’s natural capital by fostering environmental protection outside nature reserves and enabling better overall adaptation to changing conditions. The aim of Europe’s green infrastructure strategy is to integrate GI implementation into existing policies. In intensively farmed agricultural areas, this mainly means the greening measures of the Common Agricultural Policy, which are mandatory for farmers wishing to receive full direct payments. We explore how GI implementation might develop under different future scenarios. We use a participatory scenario development approach to explore the benefits and limitations perceived by local actors in the agricultural regions of Saxony-Anhalt, Germany. Limiting factors include ecosystem disservices, economic constraints relating to income, labour costs, investments and land tenure, and social considerations including the farmers’ self-image as primarily food producers and local people’s opinions regarding good farming practices. The limiting factors also include a lack of knowledge about the ecological usefulness of measures, and failings in the design of the measures regarding practicability, flexibility and reliability. Benefits are seen in various ecosystem services, job creation and in fulfilling society’s demands for environmental protection. We conclude by stating that GI implementation in agricultural landscapes requires reliable and flexible measures that fit farming practices and are well communicated, and that landscape level coordination and cooperation could enhance their effectiveness.
... In addition, scenario analysis should also be performed to observe the results of the most expected case and two extreme cases. In fact, this will provide a full perspective for potential clients since it may enhance the resilience of environmental policies through the greater understanding of uncontrollable uncertainties of specific system changes for the decision support [49,50]. ...
... The twin swords of Damocles of scarcity and conflict loom over a growing number of world regions only to worsen in the following decades. Most of these problems are attributed to unsustainable consumptions, with cities leading the world's voracity for freshwater, while scenarios of doom with leading roles for water and climate change abound in scientific, economic and political circles ( March et al. 2012b). Cities, in particular, are always seen as places of high natural resource consumption (land, water, energy, etc.) as well as areas of concentration of pollution and waste ( Newman 2006, Niza et al. 2009, Weisz and Steinberger 2010). ...
In this paper, we document and analyse the recent decline (2007–2013) in domestic water consumption in Barcelona. The postulates of ecological modernisation and market environmentalism celebrate these declines as an example of sustainable development, thanks to the combination of more efficient technologies and economic incentives. However, these interpretations ignore the new framework of social relations introduced by technologies and markets and take environmental improvements as homogeneous and universal regardless of distributional issues. Therefore, it would be perfectly possible to achieve optimal environmental situations in the context of deteriorating social conditions, particularly in terms of access to basic resources by the most disadvantaged. We explored the relationships between declining domestic water consumption and the uneven impact of the economic crisis on Barcelona’s urban geography. We found that the alleged increase in environmental sustainability that follows decline in resource use translates into highly uneven social impacts in terms of both accessibility and consumption. These results show that water flows have profound political dimensions and that water justice in terms of distributional costs and benefits but also in terms of recognition and participation of the less well-off should be a fundamental component of future urban water policies in this area.
... A wide array of scenario studies have quantified the impacts on one or a few ecosystem services in response to alternative paths of quantitative drivers such as climate (Bangash et al., 2013; Koca et al., 2006), land use/land cover (Lawler et al., 2014; Metzger et al., 2006), or both (Byrd et al., 2015; Fan et al., 2016). A review of 52 water-related scenarios found that most only considered one key driver of change, with climate change being the most common (March et al., 2012). Similarly, a review of biodiversity scenarios found future land use/management changes largely ignored (Titeux et al., 2016). ...
Scenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.
... Scenarios' widely varying timescales also lead to different types of conversations, from immediate decision-making applications to visionary planning (van Notten et al. 2003). Local and regional scenarios tend to downscale change drivers, such as climate change, and may focus on sectors of interest to the project, such as agriculture (e.g., Rounsevell et al. 2005) or water (e.g., March et al. 2012). However, many scenario projects, even at a local or regional scale, use change themes from the global literature for inspiration to describe potential pathways of social and landscape transformation Henrichs 2007, Rounsevell and. ...
Contrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios’ narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.
... In addition to land use (has), efficiency (%) and gross water use (Mm3/year), ecosystem water requirements (Mm3/year), net water use per hectare (m3/ha*year) and total energy use (GWh) are considered. The two types of scenarios are defined inTable 3.4 using a simplified adapted version of the interpretative for water-related scenarios ofMarch et al. (2012). ...
The emergence of sustainable development as a mainstream issue in the global political agenda defused voices critical of the limits to growth by embracing the discourse of ecological modernization. According to this narrative, environmental problems can and should be dealt with by the promotion of economic growth within existing economic and institutional arrangements. The field of water governance echoed this discourse in the new integration ideas of integrated water resources management, which has gradually become a dominant water management paradigm over the last decades. In the meantime, the western scientific arena has experienced a drastic epistemological shift from mechanicism to complexity. A theoretical basis of complexity underpins the new field of sustainability science, which strives to respond to the challenges associated with retrieving unsustainable patterns through inter- and transdisciplinary research on social-ecological systems. However, water science for governance is slowly mirroring the epistemological implications of complexity, such as the existence of multiple perceptions of nature, the multi-scale organization of living systems, and circular causality as the main type of relationship maintaining this organization. Some research challenges associated with these issues are the following: integrated analysis involving multiple scales and dimensions; mechanisms for quality control over the narratives leading problem-solving; and critical assessments of win-win techno-social fixes.
This dissertation attempts to respond to these challenges by offering a complex systems perspective on water resources management that conceptualizes watersheds as social-ecological systems. The research objective is to develop an integrated assessment of the implementation of sustainability objectives in water policies in two semi-arid water basins: the Andarax River basin in Almeria (Spain) and the Tucson basin in Arizona (United States). For this purpose, the dissertation proposes a theoretical framework for the integrated assessment of water governance that combines a series of conceptual devices, such as a complex definition of water use, a holarchic depiction of coupled water-human systems, the water metabolism of social-ecological systems, the semiotic process of water management, and water availability as a boundary object. This conceptual repertoire is operationalized through a methodological framework that bridges quantitative analytical tools, such as a spatial-relational data model and the Multi-Scale Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism, and qualitative discourse analysis and assessment of public policies.
The first case study follows the implementation of the first cycle of the Water Framework Directive 2009-2015 in the Andarax River basin. It begins with a thorough characterization of the water metabolism of one sub-basin, linking the analysis of societal and that of ecosystem metabolism on a spatially explicit basis. It is proposed that the analysis of ecosystem metabolism should be carried out through the eco-hydrological processes that control water resource renewability (supply-side sustainability), the impacts caused to ecosystem health (sink-side sustainability), and the boundary concepts of water availability and ecosystem water requirements. The analysis revealed the metabolic pattern of a high mountain rural system with a multi-functional economy striving to deal with exodus and agricultural land abandonment. Centuries of social-ecological evolution shaping waterscapes through traditional water management practices have influenced the eco-hydrological functioning of the basin, enabling the adaptation to aridity. Management challenges posed by the European water regulatory framework as a new driver of social-ecological change are highlighted. In the second analytical chapter, the interplay between agricultural and water policies is assessed on a multi-scale basis by bridging the analysis of management plans and that of societal metabolic patterns. The resulting analysis shows that the integration of these policies is undertaken at regional level through techno-social fixes consisting mainly of new resources and the improvement of irrigation efficiency. Agriculture is the main driver of water use patterns, and a range of which are found in the basin with different associated challenges regarding the meeting of environmental objectives of the Directive. The trade-offs associated with management decisions are uncovered in terms of the rebound effect in water use and the intensification of the energy cost of the water supply. The case study ends with an assessment of the semiotic process of the water management cycle. Discourse analysis shows the existence of multiple contested narratives surrounding the question of how water should be managed. However, the dominant narratives pervading water management decisions prioritize high-cost supply augmentation as a means of coping with environmental objectives. Critical narratives that pinpoint structural problems of metabolic change in rural communities, offer eco-integrative views of economic development, or denounce institutional dysfunction, are disregarded. The analysis shows that management strategies so far have been largely cost-ineffective in a context of financial austerity, and that the management system is notably vulnerable to perturbations. The improvement of information, transparency and accountability arises as a key challenge in the fostering of trust and the improving of adaptive capacity.
The second case study reviews the state of the art of current debates surrounding the sustainability objective in Arizona water policy, focusing on the Tucson basin area. Achieving safe yield for aquifers by 2025 was endorsed in the Groundwater Management Act of 1980, and since then three management cycles have implemented different strategies to pursue this. These combined growth control measures, improved productive efficiency through conservation practices and new resources from the Colorado River and wastewater reclamation. Combining a historical perspective on water use and its drivers with spatial analysis of groundwater management, the analysis of the study area shows how the Central Arizona Project was a tipping point in the water metabolism. The Project allowed continuing fueling economic growth, both through multiplying the sources available and through the infrastructural and institutional complexity involved. The research indicates that growth limitations have only been operative in the agricultural sector, which drives overall demand and overdraft variability. Conservation programs have been effective in the most important segment of the demand, which is the residential use of large urban areas. The recharge and recovery program was the key innovative solution to curbing overdraft, although fiddly accounting and legal mechanisms obscure an uneven progress towards safe yield. The disconnection of recovery from recharge sites entails local impacts on water table levels driven by mines and new developments. While new infrastructures are being negotiated in order to expand the reach of the supply from the canal, vulnerability to potential Colorado water shortages and the high uncertainty over the achievement and maintenance of a distributed safe yield appear as core management issues for the next decade.
Keywords: Andarax basin, water-human systems, Groundwater Management Act, integrated assessment, management paradigms, narratives, science for governance, societal and ecosystem metabolism, social-ecological systems, socio-eco-hydrology, transdisciplinarity, Tucson basin, Water Framework Directive, water governance, water metabolism.
This book examines a wide range of emerging sources off water pollution. It consists of thirteen chapters dedicated to the topic, giving readers comprehensive information about the types of materials involved and the solution for their removal.
The first five chapters present an analysis of the emerging water pollutants, their toxicities, legislations available to monitor and regulate their emissions. This introduction is followed by 3 chapters that cover risk assessment of emerging pollutants, their fate and life cycle assessment. The last section of the book goes through the details of remediation technologies for wastewater treatment.
This reference is equally suitable for academia, industry professionals and students, presenting state-of-the-art learnings on emerging water pollutants and their remediation methods.
This book examines a wide range of emerging sources off water pollution. It consists of thirteen chapters dedicated to the topic, giving readers comprehensive information about the types of materials involved and the solution for their removal.
The first five chapters present an analysis of the emerging water pollutants, their toxicities, legislations available to monitor and regulate their emissions. This introduction is followed by 3 chapters that cover risk assessment of emerging pollutants, their fate and life cycle assessment. The last section of the book goes through the details of remediation technologies for wastewater treatment.
This reference is equally suitable for academia, industry professionals and students, presenting state-of-the-art learnings on emerging water pollutants and their remediation methods.
This book examines a wide range of emerging sources off water pollution. It consists of thirteen chapters dedicated to the topic, giving readers comprehensive information about the types of materials involved and the solution for their removal.
The first five chapters present an analysis of the emerging water pollutants, their toxicities, legislations available to monitor and regulate their emissions. This introduction is followed by 3 chapters that cover risk assessment of emerging pollutants, their fate and life cycle assessment. The last section of the book goes through the details of remediation technologies for wastewater treatment.
This reference is equally suitable for academia, industry professionals and students, presenting state-of-the-art learnings on emerging water pollutants and their remediation methods.
Governments have been forced to formulate and implement demand-responsive approaches focused on curtailing the challenges faced by their denizens in terms of water access. This research evaluates the current stature of rural water supply in the United States putting emphasis on the most significant legal and institutional considerations that hinder water access. A PRISMA guideline was implemented in order conduct a systematic review from 1990 to 2019. Findings show that there is a need for the government to reorganize its existing structures and offer its municipalities the requisite flexibility required to meet their ameliorative mandates.
Heavy metals (HMs) are natural constituent that exist in ecosystem and are used for various industrial and economics purposes. Mercury is the naturally occurring heavy metal, mostly use in industries. It is commonly present in the form of elemental mercury, methyl-mercury, and inorganic mercury. The main sources of mercury and cadmium are earth crust, volcanoes, and vaporization from natural water bodies. Mostly mercury is used in producing dental amalgams, thermometer, and some batteries. It can be found in some chemicals, electrical equipment, metal processing, and building industries. Mercury is released into the ecosystem by different ways such as agriculture sources in the form of seed preservation, pharmaceuticals, speeding organic reactions, and in chlorine and caustic soda production. It has also many negative impacts on environment as well as human health. Mercury and cadmium are the deleterious substances which have indirect role in human chemical and physiochemical processes and do not naturally occur in living bodies. Mercury and cadmium contamination occur in human beings through anthropogenic activities such as municipal and industrial wastewater discharge and through agricultural runoff. Mercury and cadmium produced during metal processing and building industries can cause many health hazards such as blindness, deafness, and digestive problems. Fetal exposure to mercury will causes miscarriages, inborn diseases, and mental retardation. Mercury is present in an unreactive form in the air. Workers and residents living near the mercury extraction sites have greater chances of exposure. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, HMs are possible carcinogens. Methyl- mercury is made primarily by minute organisms present in water and soil. The current standard of mercury by EPA and WHO for drinking water is 0.002 mg/L, and for industrial effluent, it is 0.001 mg/L. Removal of HMs from wastewater can be carried out by precipitation, coagulation, ionic exchange, electrochemical operation, and biological treatment, while removal of mercury from drinking water can be done by using coagulation, granulated activated carbon, lime softening, and reserve osmosis. HMs pose serious health issues and also have economic impacts such as decrease in working productivity, increase in health expenditure per person, and increase in mortality and morbidity. Health is the basic right of every human, so strict protective measure should be taken by workers which are mostly exposed to mercury. Hence, major research is needed to further explicate the public health impact associated with human exposure to such toxic metal.
Constantly changing and evolving social, economic, political, and environmental landscapes create new uncertainties in urban water supplies. These uncertainties surrounding urban water management have been captured using various scenario analysis techniques, which have been developed to envision plausible futures. Although past review papers have conducted broad reviews on water-related issues and water management generally, there has been a lack of attention to urban water management specifically. The growing uncertainty surrounding urban water management systems necessitates a focused review specifically aimed at the use of scenarios in urban water management. Using a comprehensive typology, a systematic review is presented to empirically investigate the necessary dimensions of urban water management scenario assessment. Urban water management scenario studies that exclusively employ qualitative methods, as well as urban water management studies that employ qualitative methods with quantitative techniques, are reviewed against the comprehensive typology. By aligning the reviewed scenarios with the dimensions in the typology, some important gaps in the current literature were identified. The need for: (i) transparency in scenario development and analysis processes, (ii) inclusion of surprises and extreme events, (iii) validation efforts and (iv) considering the impact phase of a scenario process. Recommendations are proposed to address the above gaps in current urban water scenarios literature, providing a path for future scenario analysis in urban water management.
This work analyzes the contribution of time series of earth observations for agricultural water management. The actors involved in agricultural water management are multiple, the scales of actions are various. Improving the efficiency of water use by agriculture and predicting the impacts on the different reservoirs requires the development of integrated approaches at the scales of decision-making: (1) the plot for the farmer who plans his irrigation, (2) the catchment area for the manager who plans the development and (3) the national territory for the state who defines public policies. The issue of decision making at different spatial and temporal scales is the main thread of the thesis. i- At the scale of the agricultural plot, the irrigation decision is made and carried out within a few days. The water balance at the plot level must thus take into account the previous water turns in order to be correctly calculated and predict the next water needs. An approach comparing the direction of variation of a model that does not simulate irrigation to that of a soil moisture product from microwave satellite observations is being developed and tested in southwestern France. This first version of irrigation detection obtains satisfactory results when irrigations are above 10mm. ii- Agronomic drought is studied at regional and seasonal scales. The aim of the study is to show that spatial remote sensing data (vegetation, soil moisture, surface temperature) allow on the one hand to characterize the intensity and extent and on the other hand to anticipate drought. For this purpose, an original two-dimensional drought classification method is proposed, and an analogous approach allows to consider the future trajectory. The approach is applied to north-Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) iii- At the watershed scale and over the long term, we have studied a method to develop anthropogenic scenarios taking into account the interseasonal variations of the climate and thus also climate change. The approach is developed and tested on the Tensift watershed in Morocco.
In the context of major changes (climate, demography,
economy, etc.), the southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges
with intrinsically low, irregular, and continuously decreasing water
resources. In some regions, the proper growth both in terms of cropping
density and surface area of irrigated areas is so significant that it needs
to be included in future scenarios. A method for estimating the future
evolution of irrigation water requirements is proposed and tested in the
Tensift watershed, Morocco. Monthly synthetic crop coefficients (Kc) of
the different irrigated areas were obtained from a time series of remote
sensing observations. An empirical model using the synthetic Kc and
rainfall was developed and fitted to the actual data for each of the
different irrigated areas within the study area. The model consists of a
system of equations that takes into account the monthly trend of Kc,
the impact of yearly rainfall, and the saturation of Kc due to the
presence of tree crops. The impact of precipitation change is included in
the Kc estimate and the water budget. The anthropogenic impact is included
in the equations for Kc. The impact of temperature change is only
included in the reference evapotranspiration, with no impact on the Kc
cycle. The model appears to be reliable with an average r2 of 0.69 for the
observation period (2000–2016). However, different subsampling tests of the
number of calibration years showed that the performance is degraded when the
size of the training dataset is reduced. When subsampling the training
dataset to one-third of the 16 available years, r2 was reduced to 0.45.
This score has been interpreted as the level of reliability that could be
expected for two time periods after the full training years (thus near to
2050).
The model has been used to reinterpret a local water management plan and to
incorporate two downscaled climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The
examination of irrigation water requirements until 2050 revealed that the
difference between the two climate scenarios was very small (< 2 %), while the two agricultural scenarios were strongly contrasted both
spatially and in terms of their impact on water resources. The approach is
generic and can be refined by incorporating irrigation efficiencies.
Water resources scarcity and increasing pollution and the rapid increase in water demand due to population growth and higher livelihood standards along with climate change have created a widespread scope for water crisis in Iran and the world. Accordingly, water in agricultural production has become a limiting factor. Hence, farmers have adopted various strategies to reduce the effects of water scarcity in their agricultural practices. The purpose of this survey was to investigate farmers' beliefs and adaptation strategies for managing agricultural water under conditions of water scarcity and effective factors in selection of farmers' adaptation methods in Mamassani County of Fars province. The statistical population of this study was 4033 irrigated farmers. In order to select the sample, a random-quota sampling method was used. A sample of 351 farmers was selected based on the Krejcie and Morgan's table. The results of the study showed that the farms distance to the city center, agricultural experience, awareness of the consequences of danger, sense of commitment, risk taking, and access to credit could explain 42.2% of farmers' changing beliefs about water scarcity. Regression results of the factors influencing the selection of adaptation strategies showed that variables of farm size, intention for water conservation, risk salience, and social capital could predict 27% of the variability of adaptation strategies.
NanoRem (Taking Nanotechnological Remediation Processes from Lab Scale to End User Applications for the Restoration of a Clean Environment) is a research project, funded through the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme. NanoRem focuses on facilitating practical, safe, economic and exploitable nanotechnology for in situ remediation of polluted soil and groundwater.
This report provides an overview of NanoRem WP9 outputs. The overall objective of WP9 is to facilitate dissemination, dialogue and exploitation, transmitting the results of NanoRem widely amongst user communities. The work outlined in this report had the aim of developing an understanding of the “value proposition” (the overall promise of value to be delivered) for the nanoparticles (NPs) tested by the NanoRem project for remediation in terms of a risk-benefit appraisal of its use given the current state of knowledge, and so understanding their markets and how they might best be exploited in an overarching way . Primarily this appraisal relates to iron based NPs, for example variants of nanoscale zero valent iron (nZVI), since these are the particles that have been deployed in the field to date and have the greatest evidence base from which to draw conclusions. Hence these are the particles that are currently being exploited or are most market-ready. Other NanoRem NPs tested in the lab are mentioned but not explored in detail.
River managers are aware that river restoration entails addressing and effectively solving wicked social-ecological problems. Contemporary river corridor management is characterized by a variety of actors with different perspectives and interests, and by complex institutional settings and legal landscapes. Additionally, at the intersection between litho-, hydro-, and biological fields, new research suggests that river restoration should reactivate matter and energy fluxes, re-establish spatial connections with the floodplains, and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats without exacerbating flood risk. First, we outline a general structure of participatory river corridor management that addresses the following key requirements: (1) unambiguous, participatory spatial delineation of the river corridor; (2) comprehensive assessment of the river corridor's hydro-geomorphological, ecological, socio-economic and cultural processes; (3) transparency and consistency of the decision-making process; as well as (4) a coherent envisioning process. Subsequently, we present an overview of two river corridor management processes, conducted in South Tyrol, Italy. Specifically, we analysed the Etsch/Adige River corridor between Laas/Lasa and Glurns/Glorenza in the Upper Vinschgau/Venosta valley characterized by intense agricultural land use and the densely populated Eisack/Isarco River corridor in Brixen/Bressanone. Based on structured interviews with project managers, we highlight strengths and shortcomings of the proposed participatory management and envisage procedural improvements.
In forest management, scenarios are often used to envision what the future might look like to account for uncertainties associated with, for example, climate change, changing socio-economic conditions, and technological developments. There are, however, many different methodological approaches to scenario building. In order to be able to make better use of the diversity of approaches at hand, a systematic overview of the scenario methodologies, which is currently missing in the forest sector, is needed. This paper analysed and reviewed 129 forest-management-related scenario studies that have been carried out in Europe during the past decade. The studies were classified by means of cluster analysis in four groups: (1) management scenarios, (2) environmental scenarios, (3) optimization scenarios, and (4) participatory scenarios. Despite differences between the four groups, almost all scenario studies can be characterized as rather quantitative, non-participatory, and single factor in nature. The analysis also found a temporal trend reflecting a broadening of the scenario methodology for forest management over time towards scenarios that incorporate longer time horizons, reflecting issues on a larger scale, including land-use considerations. Considering the complexity and urgency of the issues in forest management that need to be addressed and the opportunities offered by the scenario methodologies not yet fully used, we expect to see a further broadening of the scenario methodology with mixed-method, participatory, and complex scenarios.
Human appropriation of renewable freshwater (HARF) is a measure for the influence of human activities on the global water cycle. It describes the fraction of accessible water that is directly used by human-dominated systems. We present a comprehensive model-based analysis of HARF for crop production on the African continent. Our analysis includes the components evapotranspiration from cropland ("green" water fluxes) and water used for cropland irrigation (crop-related fraction of "blue" water fluxes). Model experiments were conducted for two scenarios with a time horizon of 2050, taking into account the combined effects of land-use change, climate change, and technological change. For the year 2000, evapotranspiration from Africa's rainfed cropland (green water flux) is estimated to be 1085 km3/yr, whereas the abstraction of water for irrigation purposes from the renewable water resources (blue water flux) is estimated to be approximately 180 km3/yr. According to the model experiments, between 2000-2050, an area between 1.25 million km2 and 1.56 million km2 of natural biomes will be converted to cropland. Consequently, for 2050, evapotranspiration from rainfed cropland is substantially greater than in 2000, ranging from 1870-2040 km3/yr, depending on the scenario, and irrigation abstraction increases up to 194-330 km3/yr.
These findings point out the significant role of water appropriated for rainfed crop production in the continental water cycle, in contrast to the sum of water appropriated for irrigation. Furthermore, they suggest that it would be worthwhile to look for opportunities to reduce the amount of water evaporated and transpired from cropland to increase the "water productivity" of cropland. Finally, they indicate that under the given scenarios, this additional production is very likely to come at the cost of the extent of natural biomes and their associated ecosystem services.
Post-normal science (PNS) is presented by its proponents as a new way of doing science that deals with uncertainties, value diversity or antagonism, and high decision stakes and urgency, with the ultimate goal of remedying the pathologies of the global industrial system for which, according to Funtowicz and Ravetz, existing science forms the basis. The authors critically examine whether PNS can fulfill this claim in the light of empirical and theoretical work on politics and policy making. The authors credit PNS as an innovative frontrunner in raising important issues regarding the limited problem-solving capacity of "normal science" and "professional consultancy." Yet, the authors notice that PNS lacks important considerations about the governance of problems and aspects of participatory and deliberative democracy. PNS in effect implies that methodological "ratiocination" would prevail over political deliberation and democratic interaction and that merely changing scientific input in public policy making would have the power to change its outcomes. This scientistic hubris can be traced back to PNS's origin in concerned scientists' activism, which in effect accessed the political arena through the scientific entrance. The authors conclude that the art of politics needs to come back into the discussion on environmental problems if societal change is to occur.
Integrated water resources management (IWRM) and adaptive management (AM) are two institutional and management paradigms designed to address shortcomings within water systems governance – the limits of hierarchical water institutional arrangements in the case of IWRM and the challenge of making water management decisions under uncertainty in the case of AM. Recently, there has been a trend to merge these paradigms to address the growing complexity of stressors shaping water management, such as globalization and climate change. However, because many of these joint approaches have received little empirical attention, questions remain about how they might work (or not) in practice. Here, we explore a few of these issues using empirical research carried out in Brazil. We focus on highlighting the potentially negative interactions, tensions, and tradeoffs between different institutions/mechanisms perceived as desirable as research and practice attempt to make water systems management simultaneously integrated and adaptive. Our examples pertain mainly on the use of techno-scientific knowledge in water management and governance in Brazil’s IWRM model and how it relates to participation, democracy, deliberation, diversity, and adaptability. We show that a legacy of technical and hierarchical management has shaped the integration of management, and subsequently, the degree to which management might also be adaptive. While integrated systems may be more legitimate and accountable than top-down command and control ones, the mechanisms of IWRM may be at odds with the flexible, experimental, and self-organizing nature of AM.
A global water model is used to analyse the impacts of climate change and socio-economic driving forces (derived from the A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC) on future global water stress. This work extends previous global water research by analysing not only the impact of climate change and population, but also the effects of income, electricity production, water-use efficiency and other driving forces, on water stress. Depending on the scenario and climate model, water stress increases (between current conditions and the 2050s) over 62.0–75.8% of total river basin area and decreases over 19.7–29.0% of this area. The remaining areas have small changes. The principal cause of decreasing water stress (where it occurs) is the greater availability of water due to increased annual precipitation related to climate change. The principal cause of increasing water stress is growing water withdrawals, and the most important factor for this increase is the growth of domestic water use stimulated by income growth. (Population growth was a much less important factor and irrigated area was assumed to remain constant.) To address the uncertainty of water stress estimates, three different indicators of water stress were computed and compared. The overlap area of their computation of “severe stress” in the 2050s was large (approximately 23 × 10 km or 56–73 % of the total “severe stress” area). This indicates a moderate level of agreement and robustness in estimates of future water stress. At the same time the indicators disagreed in many other areas, suggesting that work is still needed to elaborate general indicators and concepts of water stress.
Land use is a key factor controlling the hydrological behaviour of catchments. Changing land use therefore can have an important influence on the local hydrological cycle. Validated and process-based hydrological models are suitable tools to quantify the impact of a change in land use on the hydrological processes. In this study, the physically based catchment model WaSiM-ETH (Water Balance Simulation Model) was applied to a mesoscale lowland catchment in northern Germany (Hunte river, 2141 km(2) at gauge Oldenburg). Model calibration and validation showed that WaSiM-ETH well represented the discharge of the main Hunte river while the discharge dynamics of a few lowland tributaries whose catchments are characterised by peaty soils and intense artificial drainage could not be represented. The purpose of this study was twofold; on the one hand to analyse the sensitivity of WaSiM-ETH to changes in land use observed in the decade 1990-2000, and on the other hand to quantify the impact of land use change projected for the future in terms of land use scenarios available to the public. The results showed that WaSiM-ETH is hardly sensitive to the slight changes observed in the last decade of the 20th century. By contrast, water flows simulated by WaSiM-ETH are clearly impacted by agricultural land use scenarios which were developed based on IPCC scenarios. However, the results also show that it is not sufficient to focus on agricultural land use, only. The proposed reduction of agricultural land leaves open the final land cover after land use change, e.g., forest or urban areas. This study demonstrated that WaSiM-ETH was more sensitive to the choice of the final land cover than to the difference in the scenarios (e.g., A1F1 versus B1). Therefore, we recommend to precisely define change in agricultural land use as well as the final land cover in order to estimate the realistic impact of land use change on hydrological behaviour.
The Government of India's National River-Linking Plan (NRLP) aims to alleviate emerging water scarcity problems by transferring water from well endowed to more deficient areas. This study evaluated the plausible future scenarios of water availability and use under conditions of various cropping patterns, and with the explicit inclusion (for the first time) of environmental water requirements for one of the links of the NRLP: from the Godavari River at Polavaram to the Krishna River at Vijayawada-the 'Polavaram Project'. The scenarios were evaluated using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model. The study generates information for use in managing emerging trade-offs. The importance of explicit accounting for monthly variability in description of water supply and demand, in the monsoon-driven climate conditions of the region, is advocated. Such detailed scenario simulations and inclusion of previously unaccounted for factors/uses can help to create awareness of potential future problems, inform water management practices and suggest management alternatives. Results show that the proposed water storage and transfer will reduce water deficit within the project command area and significantly reduce dry slow river flow into the Lower Godavari Delta.
This article assesses the institutional prescriptions of adaptive (co-)management based on a literature review of the (water) governance literature. The adaptive (co-)management literature contains four institutional prescriptions: collaboration in a polycentric governance system, public participation, an experimental approach to resource management, and management at the bioregional scale. These prescriptions largely resonate with the theoretical and empirical insights embedded in the (water) governance literature. However, this literature also predicts various problems. In particular, attention is called to the complexities associated with participation and collaboration, the difficulty of experimenting in a real-world setting, and the politicized nature of discussion on governance at the bioregional scale. We conclude this article by outlining a common research agenda that invites the collaborative efforts of adaptive (co-)management and governance scholars.
This paper reports on the general findings of the Georgia Basin Futures Project, a five year collaborative interdisciplinary participatory integrated assessment project undertaken in the Georgia Basin of Canada from 1999-2004. Key outcomes are discussed with regard to the development and use of participatory scenario-generation models and processes, the involvement of stakeholders and partners in such processes, the development of three urban-scale case studies, the use of such tools and processes in the classroom, the cognitive and behavioural effects of such activities, and the value of such processes for policy analysis. Some comments on the implications of this type of project for interdisciplinary research and project management are also included.
Global energy needs are expanding substantially as populations grow and
economies develop around the world. There is clear evidence that
continued use of fossil fuels as the world's dominant energy supply is
damaging the environment and causing changes in global climate patterns.
People want higher levels of more efficient, cleaner, and less obtrusive
energy services. Global Energy Perspectives presents six long-term
energy futures that lay out the alternatives among future fuels,
technologies, efficiency gains, conservation patterns, and pollution
levels, and pinpoints the key choices that are most likely to
characterize the twenty-first century. The primary audience will include
researchers, educators, policy makers in private and public sectors and
other workers in the energy, technology, economics and environmental
areas.
A set of three global scenarios used to initiate consultation on a World Water Vision is presented, derived from alternative evolutions of the major forces driving the global water situation economic, demographic, technological, social, environmental and governance. The alternative scenarios are the Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU), representing the future trajectory if those who don't believe in the crisis prevail, and no major policy or lifestyle changes take place; the Economics, Technology and Private Sector scenario (TEC), which could result from policies favoured by those who rely on the market, the involvement of the private sector and mainly technological solutions, and largely national/local or basin-level action; and the Values and Lifestyles scenario (VAL), that could materialise through a revival of human values, strengthened international cooperation, heavy emphasis on education, international mechanisms, international rules, increased solidarity and changes in lifestyles and behaviour. A number of general conclusions are derived.
The Policy Interactive Dialogue Model (PODIUM), developed by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), has been used to consider data of 1995 as a base to predict water–food security scenarios for 2025 of Agro‐Ecological Region 12 (AER12) of India having a total geographical area of 26.8 million ha. The model has been used to address the food and water security issues simultaneously and generates alternative scenarios highlighting the interlinkages between water and food security. In this study four scenarios: business as usual scenario (BAU); food security scenario (FS); water security scenario (WS); and water and food security scenario (WFS) have been analysed. The BAU scenario projects that the region AER12 of India will face a food deficit of 7.46 million t in 2025. The total annually renewable water resources of the region will be 40.3 billion m ³ in 2025, out of which a maximum of 21.7 billion m ³ will be available in Agro‐Ecological Sub Region (AESR12.1), followed by 10.2 and 8.3 billion m ³ in AESR12.2 and AESR12.3, respectively. The diversion of available water in all sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry) in AER12 was 15.4 billion m ³ in 1995, which is expected to increase by 81.7% in 2025, but due to urbanisation and industrial demand, the available water for the agricultural sector is expected to reduce by 64%. In the industry sector it is projected to jump from 10% in 1995 to 28% in 2025.
After analysing the BAU scenario of the region, some of the specific alternative options have been explored with the PODIUM model by altering the drivers in order to find feasible ways to make the region secure and sustainable with a comfortable level of food and water by 2025. The outcomes of the alternative options are discussed in this paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
L’avenir n’est pas écrit, il reste à faire. La prospective n’a rien à voir avec le déterminisme de la futurologie (boule de cristal) et de la prévision (modèles). En prospective la détermination conduit à ne pas se contenter de la réactivité mais à se montrer aussi pré-actif et pro-actif.
Quels sont les principaux courants de pensée en prospective ? Comment éviter certaines erreurs de prévision ? Ce texte apporte des réponses et milite aussi pour l'utilisation de scénarios pertinents, cohérents et vraisemblables dans le management stratégique. En d’autres termes, ce texte est un appel à plus de rigueur et de rationalité avec la perspective d’un regain de la planification.
Sustainable water management is a key environmental challenge of the 21st century. Developing and implementing innovative management approaches and how to cope with the increasing complexity and uncertainties was the theme of the first International Conference on Adaptive and Integrated Water Management, held in November 2007 in Basel, Switzerland. The conference volume includes selected contributions on conceptual and methodological innovations and empirical insights from case studies on important themes such as multi-level governance, change management, vulnerability assessment, environmental flows, uncertainty analysis and the impacts of climate change. The book addresses a wide interdisciplinary audience of scientists and professionals from academia, industry, and involved in policy making.
Water use assessments are a necessary prerequisite for sustainable water resources management and planning in river basins, federal states, or countries. For reasons of transparency, flexibility, ease of update, and the possibility to generate scenarios of future water use, such assessments are best carried out by applying a water use model. To support water resources planning in two federal states of semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceara and Piaui, the regional-scale water use model NoWUM was developed. It computes withdrawal and consumptive water use for each of 332 municipalities, distinguishing five water use sectors: irrigation, livestock, households, industry, and tourism. The model is suited to simulate the impact of global change and of management measures on water demand Using NoWUM, the present-day water use situation in Ceara and Piaui is assessed. In addition, the impact of inter-annual climate variability and long-term climate change on irrigation requirements is considered. Scarce and uncertain input data lead to a high level of uncertainty in the model results. It is likely that water use in the most important sector irrigation, is underestimated, while industrial water use is possibly overestimated. With some modifications, NoWUM has the potential to be applied for water use assessments in other data-poor regions of the globe.
In Benin, annual water availability per capita far exceeds the critical threshold of about 1,700 m 3 , but during the dry season, water scarcity occurs at the local scale. By modeling the water balance of the Ouémé–Bonou catchment with WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System), this study aimed at analyzing Benin's future water situation under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and climate change until 2025. The results show that the pressure on Benin's water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water. Furthermore, financial and technological constraints hinder a satisfactory development, and exploration of groundwater and reservoir resources. However, improvements are most needed, especially in rural areas. Decreasing inflows and groundwater recharge due to climate change aggravate this situation. Even though there are uncertainties and constraints concerning the model and input data, this study shows that the WEAP results offer a solid basis to assist planners in developing recommendations for future water resource management by revealing hot spots of action.
In 1995, nearly 1400 million people lived in water-stressed watersheds (runoff less than 1000 m3/capita/year), mostly in south west Asia, the Middle East and around the Mediterranean. This paper describes an assessment of the relative effect of climate change and population growth on future global and regional water resources stresses, using SRES socio-economic scenarios and climate projections made using six climate models driven by SRES emissions scenarios. River runoff was simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° under current and future climates using a macro-scale hydrological model, and aggregated to the watershed scale to estimate current and future water resource availability for 1300 watersheds and small islands under the SRES population projections. The A2 storyline has the largest population, followed by B2, then A1 and B1 (which have the same population). In the absence of climate change, the future population in water-stressed watersheds depends on population scenario and by 2025 ranges from 2.9 to 3.3 billion people (36–40% of the world's population). By 2055 5.6 billion people would live in water-stressed watersheds under the A2 population future, and "only" 3.4 billion under A1/B1. Climate change increases water resources stresses in some parts of the world where runoff decreases, including around the Mediterranean, in parts of Europe, central and southern America, and southern Africa. In other water-stressed parts of the world—particularly in southern and eastern Asia—climate change increases runoff, but this may not be very beneficial in practice because the increases tend to come during the wet season and the extra water may not be available during the dry season. The broad geographic pattern of change is consistent between the six climate models, although there are differences of magnitude and direction of change in southern Asia. By the 2020s there is little clear difference in the magnitude of impact between population or emissions scenarios, but a large difference between different climate models: between 374 and 1661 million people are projected to experience an increase in water stress. By the 2050s there is still little difference between the emissions scenarios, but the different population assumptions have a clear effect. Under the A2 population between 1092 and 2761 million people have an increase in stress; under the B2 population the range is 670–1538 million, respectively. The range in estimates is due to the slightly different patterns of change projected by the different climate models. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% variation in the population totals under a storyline could lead to variations in the numbers of people with an increase or decrease in stress of between 15% and 20%. The impact of these changes on actual water stresses will depend on how water resources are managed in the future.
This chapter discusses the pros and cons of qualitative and quantitative scenarios and the way they fulfill the different requirements of scenario developers and users. It also describes major international scenario exercises in which combined scenarios have been used. This international experience is distilled into a general procedure for combining qualitative and quantitative scenarios called the “story and simulation” (SAS) approach. In the chapter, the successes and drawbacks of this approach are pointed out and some ideas are presented for producing more scientifically sound scenarios. The qualitative storylines provide an understandable vehicle for communicating the messages of the scenarios and can express the more complex dimensions and interconnectedness of environmental problems. The quantitative scenarios provide a consistency check to the different assumptions of the qualitative scenarios and the numerical data often needed in environmental studies. To capitalize on their advantages, qualitative and quantitative scenarios have been combined in recent international scenario exercises.
The prospect of anthropogenically-induced climate change presents water planners with a variety of challenges. Drawing on work presented in this volume, these challenges are summarized and conceptual issues surrounding strategies for adapting water planning and project evaluation practices to this prospect are examined. The six-step planning process detailed in the Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies (P&G) is described; its ability to incorporate consideration of and responses to possible climate impacts is assessed. The methods of sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, and decision analysis that are encouraged by the P&G are found to be generally appropriate for planning and project evaluation under the prospect of climate change. However, some important planning and evaluation criteria require review and possible adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) impact assessment procedures are found to be particularly useful as a framework for climate change impact and sensitivity analyses, and would fulfill the requirements for future environmental impact statements. The ideas and principles are compatible with those found in the P&G. The water resources guidelines in the P&G deal explicitly with the specific comparison, appraisal, and selection of project alternatives based on normative decision rules associated with benefit cost analysis and maximizing national welfare. These basic rules and normative decision criteria for evaluating alternative adaptation measures were validated to a large degree by the IPCC Working Group III report (1996c) on economic and social dimensions of climate change. Neither IPCC guidelines nor general environmental impact procedures possess comparable prescriptive decision criteria. The paper concludes with guidance to planners as to: (1) climate-related factors that are of concern and should be monitored; (2) conditions under which climate change should receive particular attention; and (3) adaptation opportunities.
Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts following from these effects, and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science, great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels, which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective, the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population, technology, economic conditions, social and political factors, and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered.
The Water Evaluation and Planning Version 21 (WEAP21) Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) model seamlessly integrates water supplies generated through watershed-scale hydrologic processes with a water management model driven by water demands and environmental requirements and is governed by the natural watershed and physical network of reservoirs, canals, and diversions. This version (WEAP21) extends the previous WEAP model by introducing the concept of demand priorities and supply preferences, which are used in a linear programming heuristic to solve the water allocation problem as an alternative to multi-criteria weighting or rule-based logic approaches. WEAP21 introduces a transparent set of model objects and procedures that can be used to analyze a full range of issues faced by water planners through a scenario-based approach. These issues include climate variability and change, watershed condition, anticipated demands, ecosystem needs, the regulatory environment, operational objectives, and available infrastructure.
Science always evolves, responding to its leading challenges as they change through history. After centuries of triumph and
optimism, science is now called on to remedy the pathologies of the global industrial system of which it forms the basis.
Whereas science was previously understood as steadily advancing in the certainty of our knowledge and control of the natural
world, now science is seen as coping with many uncertainties in policy issues of risks and the environment. In response, new
styles of scientific activity are being developed. The reductionist, analytical world-view which divides systems into ever
smaller elements, studied by ever more esoteric specialties, is being replaced by a systemic, synthetic and humanistic approach.
The old dichotomies of facts and values, and of knowledge and ignorance, are being transcended. Natural systems are recognized
as dynamic and complex; those involving interactions with humanity are “emergent,” including properties of reflection and
contradiction. The science appropriate to this new condition will be based on the assumptions of unpredictability, incomplete
control, and a plurality of legitimate perspectives.
Spatially explicit landscape analyses are a central activity in research on the relationships between people and changes in natural systems. Using geographical information systems and related tools, the Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Consortium depicted historical (pre-EuroAmerican settlement, circa 1850), current (circa 1990), and three alternative future (circa 2050) landscapes for western Oregon's Willamette River Basin. These depictions were used to better understand and anticipate trajectories of change in human occupancy and natural resource condition. During a 30-month period, we worked with lay and professional citizen groups to create, map, and refine a set of value-based assumptions about future policy in three scenarios concerning land and water use. The Plan Trend 2050 scenario represents the expected future landscape in 2050 if current policies are implemented as written and recent trends continue. Development 2050 reflects a loosening of current policies, to allow freer rein to market forces across all components of the landscape, but still within the range of what citizen stakeholders considered plausible. Conservation 2050 places greater emphasis on ecosystem protection and restoration, still reflecting a plausible balance among ecological, social, and economic considerations as defined by the stakeholders. For the Conservation scenario, natural resource managers and scientists provided estimates for the area of key habitats required to sustain, in perpetuity, the array of dependent species. Spatially explicit analyses identified locations biophysically suited to meet the area targets. These locations, titled the Conservation and Restoration Opportunity Areas, were mapped and then reviewed by a series of groups regarding the political plausibility of conserving or restoring them to the indicated vegetation types. The three alternative 2050 futures, as well as the 1850 past conditions, were then evaluated by an array of evaluation models described by others in this issue. The Conservation and Restoration Opportunities map from the Conservation 2050 scenario has been adopted by the group charged with salmon recovery in the basin as the centerpiece of its restoration strategy.
This chapter discusses a large array of applications of different types of environmental scenarios. It reviews different types of surprises that are considered for inclusion in environmental scenarios. The selection of a particular scenario and surprise depends on many factors: the bounding and complexity of the issue, the objectives of the scenario development and use, the client or intended user of the scenario, and many others. Given the large number of possible combinations, it is not practical or simply impossible to give detailed guidance for choosing the scenario type and the surprises to be included. Therefore, some general guidance about the compatibility of different kinds of surprises into environmental scenarios according to their purpose and their function are presented in the chapter. The chapter also presents some guidance about what could be effective ways to think creatively about the various surprise types in the scenario creation/analysis process
Most environmental, ecological, and human processes exhibit characteristic scales, which are also called “grain.” A characteristic scale can be defined as the typical extent or duration over which a process has impacts. If the impact of processes is assessed at scales significantly smaller than their characteristic scale, then there is a very large danger of misinterpreting a system's behavior. One important general scale issue is the “scaling” issue—that is, the way variables and their values are translated from one scale to another. Some variables can be scaled in a very straightforward way. These variables are scale-independent, additive, or linearly scaled. The chapter discusses qualitative–quantitative scenarios that are considered by some to be the most powerful tool for communication between science and policy-making. This type of scenarios combines narration, in the form of storylines, with quantitative interpretations of the storylines that are mainly done by mathematical modeling. In scenario development, the term “large scale” means having a numerically greater extent or duration than something with a “small scale.”
Environmental assessments make use of a wide range of different approaches and methods for identifying concerns, analyzing problems, and testing possible response options. This chapter discusses some of the information available about experiences made in the development and analysis of environmental scenarios. From an environmental perspective, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change describes scenarios as “images of the future or alternative futures that are neither projections nor forecasts.” While the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment recently defined scenarios as “plausible and often simplified descriptions of the way the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.” Scenario analysis is a broader concept encompassing both scenario development and the analysis of scenarios. Scenario analysis is a procedure covering the development of scenarios, the comparison of scenario results, and the evaluation of their consequences. The goal of environmental scenario analysis is to anticipate future developments of nature and society and to evaluate strategies for responding to these developments. Environmental scenarios can be developed and analyzed for a host of different purposes. These can be clustered into three categories: education and public information, science and research, and decision support and strategic planning.
This chapter describes environmental scenario analysis. As a methodology, it can be summarized as the process of building scenarios, comparing them, and evaluating their expected consequences. Scenario analysis evolved from strategic studies conducted during World War II and became a popular method for studying the future in the 1960s. Environmental scenario analysis has been used to examine many different scales and types of problems ranging from global sustainability to very specific environmental issues, such as changes in emissions, air quality, or land cover in a specific district or region. As compared to large-scale field experiments, scenario analysis has the potential to be more comprehensive, flexible, and perhaps less expensive. Scenarios can depict different future time steps and periods in the evolution of the environment. They can incorporate a virtually unlimited number of environmental compartments and their interactions as well as the complex interactions between society and the environment. Many examples demonstrate that scenario analysis has become a common and useful tool in many future-oriented environmental studies and assessments. But the current practise of environmental scenario analysis has serious deficiencies that are discussed in the chapter.
Scenario analysis has become a common and useful tool in many future-oriented environmental studies and assessments. This chapter presents a survey of environmental scenarios and scenario exercises undertaken over the past few decades. It discusses a few ways in which to characterize scenarios, focusing on (1) the driving forces and key uncertainties explored, (2) the nature of the end states—that is, the archetypes they reflect, and (3) the logic behind the scenarios and the scenario exercises, including their purpose, process, and substance. The value of doing so is to see the many ways in which scenario analysis has and can be used. The scenario studies begin with a particular geographic focus. They are integrated in that they address a number of interrelated issues. The chapter focuses on scenario studies for which the environment is either the central focus or one of the primary foci.
The development and analysis of scenarios or plausible futures has evolved to be a useful approach for dealing with uncertainty about future developments in a structured and integrated manner. Commonly, scenario exercises have focussed on processes at one specific geographic scale. Recently scenario-based approaches have also been used to address multi-scale processes or to link scenarios developed at various geographical scales with each other in order to better understand the interaction of processes across scales.The level of interconnectedness across scales will vary, and depends largely on the approaches used to develop multi-scale scenarios. We distinguish five levels of interconnectedness scenarios may display across scales: (a) Equivalent, (b) Consistent, (c) Coherent, (d) Comparable, and (e) Complementary. Furthermore, we describe five different types of coupled scenario development processes: (a) Joint, (b) Parallel, (c) Iterative, (d) Consecutive, and (e) Independent.Based on this nomenclature, the relationship between the level of interconnectedness of scenarios and the degree of coupling of scenario development processes across geographical scales is discussed. Which process is best suited and how much interconnectedness is needed, will depend both on the focal issue and the primary purpose of the scenario exercise, i.e. whether the aim is education, scientific exploration, or decision-support.
Participatory planning experiences highlight the crucial role of cognitions produced, shared and used throughout participatory processes. The construction of spatial plans is more and more intended as a socio/political activity producing highly cognitive visions able to guide collective action and make a common good of it.In accordance with the view that a relevant portion of such knowledge is revealed only through action, the paper proposes the idea of structuring-scenarios as open entities able to structure action and, consequently, to bridge participatory knowledge to the impetuous practice of action.The paper first presents and discusses the role of structuring-scenarios in the work carried out while developing an environmental plan for the delta area of the Po River in Italy. Then it reflects on the main features of content and structure of such scenarios. Finally, the paper analyses the ‘structuring properties’ of these scenarios and their role in structuring action.
Despite the recent popularity of multi-scale scenario exercises, a review of the literature reveals missing elements regarding local-scale scenario-building. Scenarios built at the local level are often downscaled from higher-scale scenarios or developed within the boundary conditions of global and national scales without taking local circumstances thoroughly into account. On this background, this paper discusses the issue of scale in local scenario development and develops a formal methodological approach for local-scale scenario-building in general. The paper underlines in particular the role of local agency in coupling the larger scale and the local scale. To better illustrate how the proposed approach helps in designing local scenarios, lessons drawn from two local scenario development practices are also employed. Hence, the paper contributes to the formalisation of local scenario-building, which is believed to enhance the validity and credibility of local scenario outputs in the policy sphere.
Historical legacies of land-use change together with growing demands for water resources from agricultural, industrial and urban sectors have extensively degraded many of the freshwater ecosystems of Australia. Recent and rapid declines in the condition of these ecosystems indicate that current patterns of water consumption are ecologically unsustainable, particularly in agricultural landscapes. We use three scenarios of water resource use and development over the next 50 years to examine the implications of each in terms of their likely impact on freshwater ecosystems. These scenarios encompass agricultural, industrial and urban water use, and propose trends in water use and management rather than a specific set of predictions. We see two of these scenarios, those of business-as-usual and economic growth, as being ecologically unsustainable, leading to significant declines in the biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Only under our ecological-sustainability scenario do we foresee possible large-scale improvements in the condition of Australia's aquatic ecosystems. This scenario will require major shifts in water use patterns and require careful planning and consideration of a range of social and economic issues. In all scenarios large-scale ecosystem drivers, such as climate change and salinity, will become major impediments to improvements in the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems.
Studying the future seems a mission impossible, since both the appearance of the future and its underlying dynamics are unknown and unknowable. Nevertheless, the future is being studied by professional futurists. So, professional futurists seem to have found ways to structure ‘the unknown’. The question is, then, how do they do this? Over the years, professional futurists have developed several types of techniques and methods to structure thinking and discussing the future. The scenario-axes technique, which aims to align divergent perspectives on how the future may unfold, is one such structuring device.In the past 2 years, we did ethnographic research at the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB) and followed professional futurists constructing and applying scenario axes in their scenario projects. Our observations illustrate how the scenario axes are practised by professional futurists and show that the scenario axes do not function as a unifying structure fostering alignment of different perspectives in the way that scenario theorists and practitioners often suggest. Instead, not one, but three different applications and interpretations of functional meaning of the scenario axes co-existed: the scenario axes as a ‘backbone’, as a ‘building scaffold’ and as ‘foundation’.
For a number of reasons, mainly to do with data and computational insufficiency, a number of analysts are calling for regional models of global environmental change phenomena. This paper presents a typology for conceptualizing the dynamic relationship between the region being analyzed and the global system in which it is embedded. Regionalism can be convergent, divergent, local, or ambivergent. In addition to positing that regional phenomena can be modelled as a superposition of convergent, divergent, and local processes, it also shows that different regional specifications of a problem can lead to radically different analytical strategies, insights, and policy prescriptions.
Water use assessments are a necessary prerequisite for sustainable water resources management and planning in river basins, federal states, or countries. For reasons of transparency, flexibility, ease of update, and the possibility to generate scenarios of future water use, such assessments are best carried out by applying a water use model. To support water resources planning in two federal states of semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, the regional-scale water use model NoWUM was developed. It computes withdrawal and consumptive water use for each of 332 municipalities, distinguishing five water use sectors: irrigation, livestock, households, industry, and tourism. The model is suited to simulate the impact of global change and of management measures on water demand. Using NoWUM, the present-day water use situation in Ceará and Piauí is assessed. In addition, the impact of inter-annual climate variability and long-term climate change on irrigation requirements is considered. Scarce and uncertain input data lead to a high level of uncertainty in the model results. It is likely that water use in the most important sector, irrigation, is underestimated, while industrial water use is possibly overestimated. With some modifications, NoWUM has the potential to be applied for water use assessments in other data-poor regions of the globe.
Scenarios provide a commonly used and intuitively appealing means to communicate and characterize uncertainty in many decision support applications, but can fall short of their potential especially when used in broad public debates among participants with diverse interests and values. This paper describes a new approach to participatory, computer-assisted scenario development that we call scenario discovery, which aims to address these challenges. The approach defines scenarios as a set of plausible future states of the world that represent vulnerabilities of proposed policies, that is, cases where a policy fails to meet its performance goals. Scenario discovery characterizes such sets by helping users to apply statistical or data-mining algorithms to databases of simulation-model-generated results in order to identify easy-to-interpret combinations of uncertain model input parameters that are highly predictive of these policy-relevant cases. The approach has already proved successful in several high impact policy studies. This paper systematically describes the scenario discovery concept and its implementation, presents statistical tests to evaluate the resulting scenarios, and demonstrates the approach on an example policy problem involving the efficacy of a proposed U.S. renewable energy standard. The paper also describes how scenario discovery appears to address several outstanding challenges faced when applying traditional scenario approaches in contentious public debates.
A strong programme in interactive social research can be distinguished by the relationships it seeks to establish among four key parties in the research process - the sponsors of research, the research team, independent organisations (from the governmental, non-governmental and commercial sectors) and the interested public. The knowledge that is the result of a research project is a co-production of researchers, players and partners, and is therefore an emergent property of their interaction. The Georgia Basin Futures Project is one attempt to operationalise a form of strong interactive social research.
This paper provides the results from the modeling framework presented by Cai and Rosegrant (2002), including projections of water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock, and irrigation water use at the basin or country level in the global scope, during 1995 to 2025. Water demand is projected to grow rapidly for domestic and industrial uses, and relatively slowly for agriculture. The developing world is projected to have much higher growth in total water demand than the developed world, and about 93 percent of the additional demand will occur in developing countries. Moderate increases are projected for water supply capacity expansion, management improvement, and irrigation development. It is found that for the developing world, there will be increasing scarcity of water for irrigation, with a declining fraction of potential irrigation demand being met over time. Particularly large declines are found in dry basins that face rapid growth in domestic and industrial sectors. Variability in irrigation water supply due to climate variability tends to increase over time. Following presentation of the “best-estimate” baseline scenario, alternative scenarios are examined for changes in infrastructure investment, non-irrigation water demand growth, and groundwater pumping.
This chapter discusses the potential of and the requirements for participatory scenario planning as a new part of a modern approach to environmental management. Scenario planning is a method with high potential that has not yet received a significant amount of attention in environmental policy development and resources management. This may be attributed to the fact that the tradition of resources management and of dealing with environmental problems is characterized by a command and control approach. Scenario planning and group model building techniques are quite common in business management where the prime target of management has always been the social system. However, the increasing awareness of the complexity of environmental problems and societal responses has led to increasing support of polycentric governance and has promoted the development of more flexible and adaptive management approaches. The chapter describes the role of social learning processes and the need to develop methods combining formal analysis and subjective perceptions.