Untapping the potential of bioenergy for sustainable energy future of Pakistan.pdf

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Energy 275 (2023) 127472
Available online 8 April 2023
0360-5442/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Untapping the potential of bioenergy for achieving sustainable energy
future in Pakistan
Mohammad Rehan
a
,
**
, Muhammad Amir Raza
b
,
c
,
*
, M.M. Aman
c
,
d
, Abdul Ghani Abro
c
,
d
,
Iqbal Mohammad Ibrahim Ismail
a
, Said Munir
e
, Ahmed Summan
a
, Khurram Shahzad
a
,
Muhammad Imtiaz Rashid
a
, Nadeem Ali
a
a
Center of Excellence in Environmental Studies (CEES), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
b
Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, SZAB Campus, Khairpur Mir’s, 66020, Sindh, Pakistan
c
Centre for Advanced Studies in Renewable Energy, NED University of Engineering and Technology Karachi, 75270, Sindh, Pakistan
d
Department of Electrical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology Karachi, 75270, Sindh, Pakistan
e
Institue for Transport Studies, Faculty of Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
ARTICLE INFO
Handling Editor: Petar Sabev Varbanov
Keywords:
Waste to energy
Green energy
Renewable energy
Energy policy
Bioenergy
Sustainability
ABSTRACT
Due to the recent climate change, organizations all over the globe are developing plans for reducing carbon
emissions by developing clean energy technologies and energy efcient devices. In this regard, the developments
have not been done over the past two decades on green energy in Pakistan and in general, the representation of
renewable sources especially biomass feedstock supply such as agriculture residue, forest residue, municipal
waste and animal waste for green energy transition pathways is limited. Using the Low Emissions Analysis
Platform (LEAP®) software, path for green energy transition is analyzed in Pakistan by incorporating the biomass
feedstock under the ongoing and sustainable energy scenarios from 2022 to 2050. Results showed that the
bioelectricity production will increase from 18.73 TWh (in the ongoing scenario) to the 265.20 TWh (in the
biomass based sustainable energy scenario) till 2050. Furthermore, the development of biomass plants would
help in reducing the CO
2
emissions from 138.47 million metric tonnes in the current scenario to 8.71 million
metric tonnes in the sustainable energy scenario by 2050. This study will provide the fundamental data and aid
the policy makers and other stakeholders to shift toward developing renewable and sustainable energy systems in
Pakistan.
1. Introduction
Climate change has interrupted our everyday lives, wherein unreg-
ulated levels of greenhouse gas emissions are causing a gradual increase
in global surface temperature, likely to result in more repeated and long-
lasting heat waves that are becoming increasingly dangerous to organ-
isms, ecosystem functions, and population health [1]. To deal with the
consequences of climate change, governments around the world are
developing green recovery plans that promote clean energy technolo-
gies, reduce emissions and boost economic growth [2].
Global greenhouse gas emissions are produced from the energy
sector which accounts for 73%, decarbonization remains central to
mitigation strategies [3]. At least 30 Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) and major partner countries
have included green power investigations, advancement, and imple-
mentation in their intervention strategies globally [3]. However, tran-
sition pathways and the ideal framework of the prospective energy
system remain unanswered. Table 1 shows numerous simulations have
been run to explore knowledge to evaluate electricity systems based on
low carbon at the governmental, geographic, and international scales,
where wind and solar play a huge role in their carbon free power system
architectures. With occasional wind and solar resources incorporated
considerable variations into the energy systems but energy from biomass
is probable to show a crucial role in sustainable recovery because of its
ability to maintain such variance, as well as its increased employment
needs, which could produce one-third of all sustainable jobs [4]. But, in
the majority of the existing low-carbon electricity studies listed in
* Corresponding author. Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, SZAB Campus, Khairpur Mir’s, 66020, Sindh,
Pakistan.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: mrehan@kau.edu.sa (M. Rehan), amirraza@muetkhp.edu.pk (M.A. Raza).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
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journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127472
Received 17 November 2022; Received in revised form 8 March 2023; Accepted 7 April 2023

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
2
Table 1, biomass is either not taken into account in the power mix or is
handled as a consolidated type of fuel with no distinction made between
feedstocks and upstream biomass [5].
The majority of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) 1.5 ◦C mitigation pathways, bio-energy with carbon capture and
storage is predicted to account for near to 30% of world’s energy use
through 2050 [6]. In Pakistan, fossil fuels start generating 66% of
electricity and renewables generate only 34% with greater contribution
of hydro 29% followed by wind 3%, solar 1% and biomass 1% respec-
tively. As a result, there is an increasing market demand for industrial
scale, and cost-effective energy balancing capacity that is reliable and
renewable, such as biomass energy [7]. The representation of biomass
feedstock supply and transition pathways in grid models is limited in
Pakistan [23]. Therefore, the goal of this research is to provide highly
resolved power system congurations with disaggregated biomass re-
sources in order to assess Pakistan’s potential energy transition path-
ways under the ongoing and sustainable energy scenario for the study
period 2022–2050 using the LEAP® software. Our contributions are
detailed below:
1. In contrast to earlier carbon free energy systems studies that
excluded biomass in their power mix or treated different biomass
feedstocks as a consolidated type of fuel using the same techno-
economic variables, but in this research, it was investigated the
biomass’s ability to compete in a 100% clean energy system by
considering the variety of feedstock kinds and production
technologies.
2. Rather than offering a xed modelling of biomass-integrated 100%
renewable systems, it was evaluated the effective power trans-
formation paths at the nationally under distinct penetrations of
differentiated bioenergy forms and also emphasis the penetration of
other renewable sources including solar, hydro and wind in the total
energy mix using the LEAP® model.
This study focused on untapping the potential of bioenergy for
achieving sustainable energy future in Pakistan. The potential of
biomass sources (agriculture residue, forest residue, animal waste and
municipal waste) for energy generation through different waste to en-
ergy technologies has been evaluated. Green energy transition is
analyzed by incorporating the biomass feedstock under the government
ongoing and sustainable energy scenarios from 2022 to 2050 using the
Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software. Furthermore, CO
2
emissions are forecasted under the ongoing and sustainable energy
scenarios.
2. Potential of biomass resource in Pakistan
The production capacity of agricultural residue (121 million tons),
forest residue (4.69 million tons), animal waste (427 million tons) and
municipal waste (7.5 million tons) in Pakistan is 560.19 million tons/
year [24].
2.1. Agricultural and forest residue
Pakistan is considered an agricultural country because the agricul-
tural sector contributes 22.04% to the country’s GDP [25] and 70% of
the population lives in rural areas, hence the production of agriculture
residue is around 225,000 tons/day which requires signicant consid-
eration for sustainable economic development [26]. Agriculture residue
are cotton sticks, cane trash, rice straw, bagasse, wheat straw, and rice
husk which are produced from the major ve crops such as rice, cotton,
wheat, sugarcane, and maize [27]. The statistics of the World Bank
revealed that in Pakistan 26,280,000 ha of land is under cultivation
[28]. Mostly agriculture residue is utilized by the people of rural areas
for cooking food and heating their homes in the winter season. Pakistan
is listed as the world’s fourth largest country in producing sugar from
sugarcane. Large quantity of bagasse produced during sugar
manufacturing along with cane trash production during harvesting
season [29]. It is estimated by the National Renewable Energy
List of abbreviations
AEDB Alternate Energy Development Board
BTE Biomass to Energy
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LFGRS Landll Gas Recovery System
LEAP® Low Emissions Analysis Platform
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development
Table 1
Different studies on energy mix scenarios (transformation plan).
Study Method Purpose
Finland 2021 [8] Numerical
Modelling
Nuclear, solar, hydro, geothermal, and
bioenergy resources are exploited for
transition to 100% energy system.
Kazakhstan
2021 [9]
Numerical
Modelling
Focusing on power, heat, transport and
industrial sector for energy transition
through achieving maximum share of hydro,
solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear.
USA 2020 [10] Analytical
Assessment
Solar, wind and hydro have been used for
100% energy transition in the
municipalities.
Canada 2020
[11]
Case Study Transitioning from coal to hydropower,
solar and wind for decarbonization.
China 2020 [12] Theoretic
Model
Penetration of nuclear, wind, hydropower
and solar in total energy mix for reducing
carbon emissions.
Jordan 2020
[13]
Numerical
Modelling
Assessment for energy security through the
use of wind, geothermal, hydropower and
solar for 100% energy transition.
Russia 2019 [14] Analytical
Assessment
Clean energy transition through exploitation
of solar and hydropower.
Hungary 2019
[15]
Analytical
Assessment
Maximizing the share of solar and wind for
100% renewable electricity.
Japan 2018 [16] Numerical
Modelling
Transition from coal, oil and natural gas to
wind and solar resources for mitigation of
climate impacts.
Spain 2018 [17] Qualitative
Assessment
Achieving greater share of renewable
sources includes hydro, solar, wind,
geothermal and nuclear for sustainable
energy transition.
Saudi Arabia
2017 [18]
Numerical
Modelling
Hydropower, biomass, wind, solar,
geothermal, wave, tidal and ocean have
been considered in making multi criteria
policy decision.
Netherlands
2015 [19]
Numerical
Modelling
Assessed impacts of renewable sources as
compared with the fossil assets and
suggested solar for energy transition.
Germany 2015
[20]
Theoretic
Model
Assessed economic growth by exploiting
solar, thermal, hydropower, wind, and
bioenergy for sustainable transition.
Switzerland
2010 [21]
Panel Data
Analysis
Hydro, geothermal, bioenergy, wind, and
solar have been taken for power production
and evaluated their cost.
Turkey 2009
[22]
Qualitative
Assessment
Hydrogen fuel have been exploited and
identied their role in achieving 100%
energy transition.
Pakistan
This study
Numerical
Modelling
Exploited energy potential of biomass, wind,
solar and hydro resources and reduces
dependency on fossil assests for making
clean energy system for the period 2022 to
2050.
M. Rehan et al.

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
3
Laboratory (NREL) of USA and Alternate Energy Development Board
(AEDB) of Pakistan that 9,475,000 MWh of power could be generated
from the available capacity of sugarcane residue that is 5,752,800 tons
[30]. Pakistan is also a producer of cotton on a large scale. Annually two
million tons of crop production is noticed which produces 5,898,771
tons of cotton stalks having a capacity of producing power around 614,
000 MWh [30]. Pakistan has attained a third rank in the world for the
production of wheat and this crop also produces a huge quantity of
straw. Along with these all crops, residue from other crops such as gram,
maize, and rice are also available for the energy conversion [31].
Mostly in the rural areas, the use of wood is very high for heating
homes and cooking food. Villagers normally collect the dry sticks of
wood from the forest for the burning in cooking stoves. Forest residue
comprises the small pieces of wood, large trees, bunches of sticks with
small, medium, and large sizes and unused wood left after cutting the
forest. These all types of forest residue are used in cottage industry and
domestic sector. The 4.224 million hectare of land is covered with forest
in Pakistan which is about 5.2% of the total land. The forest residue is
considered a clean and cheap source of electricity [32].
2.2. Animal and municipal waste
Animal waste is termed as manure which contains organic matter.
Anaerobic digestions are used in rural areas for converting manure into
biogas which is used for small industries and household’s purposes.
Whereas a large quantity of manure is also produced in urban areas
which is used in the agriculture sector as a fertilizer and also it can be
used as sustainable energy resource for energy generation. 4% growth is
noticed annually in the animal waste sector with 172.2 million animals
are available in the country for 2021 [23].
Municipal waste is generated in the country at a rate 0.4 kg/captia/
d in the cities and 0.2 kg/captia/d in the villages [23]. Waste production
is increasing day by day due to the population enhancement. Waste
dumping zones are available in almost all the cities of Pakistan which
are hazardous for human health, therefore their proper utilization for
energy production is essential for sustainable climate change.
The physio-chemical characteristics of all biomass resources is given
in Table 2, which suggested that biomass source in Pakistan is suitable
for energy production for sustainable development.
3. Materials and methods
3.1. Methodologies for biomass to energy conversion
The utilization of biomass through the use of efcient technologies
allows us to reduce the quantity of biomass and provide benets like
electricity, useable heat, and fuel [37]. The techniques of Biomass to
Energy (BTE) conversion are categorized into three ways namely land-
ll, biological treatment, and thermal treatment as given in Fig. 1 [38].
3.1.1. Anaerobic digestion
The process in which micro-organisms break into the biodegradable
matter in the presence of zero oxygen is known as anaerobic digestion
[39]. The end product of the anaerobic digestion process is biogas which
can be used to generate heat or electricity. The biogas can also be uti-
lized as a fuel in transportation or as a natural gas for domestic purposes
[39]. There are four stages of anaerobic digestion namely hydrolysis,
acidogenesis, acetogenesis, and methanogenesis through which biogas is
generated [40]. The stages of anaerobic digestion are given below [40].
1. Hydrolysis; It is the rst stage of anaerobic digestion in which
organic compounds are broken into smaller particles like fatty acids,
amino acids, and simple sugar.
2. Acidogenesis; It is the second stage of anaerobic digestion in which
methane, carbon dioxide, and ammonia is produced through the
further breakdown of the remaining components by acidogenic
(fermentative) bacteria.
3. Acetogenesis; It is the third stage of anaerobic digestion in which
hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and acetic acid is produced through the
digestion of a simple molecule (produced in acidogenesis stage) with
the acetogens.
4. Methanogenesis; It is the nal stage of anaerobic digestion in which
intermediate products are converted into water, carbon dioxide, and
methane through methanogens bacteria.
The energy potential (Ep) of anaerobic digestion method can be
calculated by Equation (1) [40].
Ep =N×BP ×OF ×MG ×LCV ×E(1)
where, N =No of inhabitants (inhbt), BP =Annual biomass production
per captia (tone/inhbt-day), OF =Organic fraction of biomass (%), MG
=Methane generation per tone of organic fraction (Nm
3
/tone), LCV =
Low caloric value of biogas that is produced from methane (MJ/m
3
)
and E =Efciency of the conversion process that is 26% [41].
3.1.2. Landll gas recovery system
Landll gas commonly known as biogas or methane is generated
from biomass after its complete decomposition [42]. Previously landll
gases are considered a problem for the atmosphere because biomass
waste generates a lot of gases in the atmosphere and it creates pollution
and enhances the risk of explosion in the domestic and commercial sites
[43]. The landll gas must be collected from landll sites which can be
utilized for power production and also this gas can be sold to cogene-
ration projects. The recovery rate of landll gas from biomass is around
120 cubic meters per tons to 150 cubic meters per tons which is
equivalent to the caloric value of 2500 MJ per tons [44]. This tech-
nique reduces methane emissions and provides an important outcome
along with the successful management of biomass [44]. The Ep of the
landll gas recovery system can be calculated by Equation (2) [45].
Ep =LCV ×MG ×SE ×EE (2)
where, LCV =Low caloric value of biogas (KWh/m
3
), MG =Methane
generation per year (Nm
3
/year), SE =System efciency that is 80% and
EE =Electrical efciency that is 33% [45].
3.1.3. Gasication
Gasication is a process that is used to convert biomass into fuel
(syngas) through a chemical reaction. The results at the output of this
process are oxygen, methane, sulphur, nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon, and
ash [46]. In the gasication process, the biomass is burned in a chamber
with a controlled amount of heat and a sufcient amount of oxygen for
the production of syngas [47]. The syngas of temperature
800 ◦C–1700 ◦C is sent to the turbine for generating electricity [47].
Normally ash and carbon are produced during gasication further these
by-products are used in the second gasication process and produce
Table 2
The physio-chemical characteristics of biomass resources in Pakistan.
Feedstock Forest
residue [33]
Animal
waste [34]
Agriculture
residue [35]
Municipal
waste [36]
Nitrogen 0.1–3.4% 9.2% Less than 1% 2%
Carbon 42.2–58% 59% 52.7% 55%
Oxygen 34–49% 23% 41.1% 39%
Sulphur 0.01–0.6% 1.45% 0.10% 1%
Hydrogen 3.2–9.2% 7.4% 5.4% 3%
Ash 0.8–20% 29–31% 1.4–3.2% 47%
Volatile
matter
41–85% 52–55% 34.5–80% 42%
Moisture 4.4–48% 6% 56.8% 15–40%
Caloric
value
16–18 MJ/kg 6–18 MJ/kg 15.78 MJ/kg 9–44 MJ/kg
M. Rehan et al.

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
4
energy for the earlier process [47]. The Ep of the gasication process can
be calculated by Equation (3) [47].
Ep =0.28 ×N×Br ×LCV ×E(3)
where, N =Number of tons of biomass used per day, Br =Biomass
rejection after mechanical treatment, LCV =Low caloric value, and E
=Efciency of process that is 23% [48].
3.1.4. Incineration
The incineration technique is the most effective strategy for biomass
treatment which converts the biomass into electricity [49]. The feed-
stock of biomass waste allows the reaction of waste organic matter with
an excess of oxygen in a boiler or furnace [50]. The output of the process
includes hot combusted gases composed of oxygen, nitrogen, carbon
dioxide, non-combustible material, and water [50]. The produced ue
gases will enter into the heat exchanger to generate steam from water
and this steam is used to run the steam turbine through Rankin cycle for
the production of electricity [50]. Normally the process in the com-
bustion chamber requires high temperature ranging from 850 ◦C to
1100 ◦C [50]. Therefore, the biomass must be going through the process
of pre-drying for the removal of high moisture contents in waste before it
sends to the combustion chamber for chemical reaction. The Ep of the
incineration process can be calculated by Equation (4) [51].
Ep =M×LCV ×E/1000 (4)
where, M =Mass of dry biomass, LCV =Low caloric value (kWh/kg)
and E =Efciency of process that is 18% [51].
BTE conversion processes are matured and used by many countries
around the globe for the recovery of sustainable energy. The merits and
demerits of BTE processes are discussed in Table 3 to nd a secure and
sustainable path for Pakistan. Furthermore, the BTE technologies in-
cludes incineration, anaerobic digestion, gasication, and Landll Gas
Recovery System (LFGRS) techniques are compared and preferred in
Table 4 because the end product of these four techniques are combined
heat and power and that is the need of the country for the alleviation of
energy crises.
3.2. Modelling of biomass on LEAP® software
The major sector that always requires a signicant amount of elec-
tricity is energy utility. Though many projects for biogas energy pro-
duction are in the planning process in Pakistan, biogas usage for energy
transition is not even being considered since this concept is new and
necessitates further research and development in the context of
Pakistan. The four most abundant biomass energy resources available in
Pakistan for producing biogas for power generation are municipal waste,
agricultural residue, forest residue, and animal waste [42]. The meth-
odological ow diagram of this study is given in Fig. 2, which represent
that the biomass source is exploited under the ongoing and sustainable
energy scenarios for the study period 2022 to 2050 using the LEAP
software. Ongoing scenario is developed based upon the ongoing policy
of Government of Pakistan which is more focused towards the imple-
mentation of fossil fuel based power plants. However, Sustainable en-
ergy scenario is developed with the assumptions of harnessing greater
renewable energy potential for meeting IPCC 1.5 ◦C mitigation target in
Pakistan.
LEAP is an integrated energy modelling tool used around the globe
for planning and policy analysis under the certain conditions. LEAP
model is suitable because it is available in free of cost for academia
however other modelling tools like MARKAL, ENPEP-BALANCE,
HOMER, TIMES, MAED, MESSAGE, WASP, and FINPLAN are not
freely available for academia. On the other hand, LEAP has capability of
doing planning more than one strategic level like at national, regional
and global levels. Alongside it forecast outows and inows of the
Fig. 1. Biomass to energy conversion technologies and output quantities.
M. Rehan et al.

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
5
energy systems. Input data for LEAP model cover the main three
branches namely, energy demand, production and carbon emissions [59,
60].
Energy demand is forecasted based the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) of the country because there is a direct relationship between
energy demand and GDP of the country. However, we forecast energy
demand sector wise hence collected sectorial GDP for future estimations.
Commercial sector GDP (132.95 billion US dollars) and growth rate
(6.4%), industrial sector GDP (52.31 billion US dollars) and growth rate
(5.8%), agriculture sector GDP (53.56 billion US dollars) and growth
rate (3.8%), total GDP of the country (314.58 billion US dollars) and
growth rate (5.8%), transmission and distribution losses for the year
2020 is 18%, total population of the country (207.7 million) and growth
rate (2.4%), and nally the past consumption of electricity for the year
2021. Domestic sector consumed greater energy of 57.85 TWh, followed
by industrial sector 25 TWh, agriculture sector 10.23 TWh, other (public
consumption) sector 9.06 TWh and commercial sector 8.29 TWh
respectively [61,62]. Data require for transformation module is the
exogenous capacity of wind, natural gas, solar, biomass, coal, hydro, oil
and nuclear. In the year 2021, Hydro has greater exogenous capacity of
9874 MW (36,982 GWh) followed by RLNG 7325 MW (31,761 GWh),
furnace oil 6274 MW (10,596 GWh), coal 4770 MW (28,000 GWh),
natural gas 4529 MW (17,917 GWh), wind 1235 MW (2899 GWh), solar
400 MW (711 GWh) and biomass (710 GWh) [63,64].
Pakistan has a great potential for household energy resources, such
as 20 GW for biomass, 100 GW for coal, 346 GW for wind, 59.796 GW for
hydropower, 2900 GW for solar, 4.883 GW for natural gas, 100 GW for
geothermal and tidal energy isn’t yet guesstimated for Pakistan. Despite
Pakistan’s signicant power potential, the proportion of household
power generation is far too low [65,66]. The major focus of this paper is
to exploit maximum power from biomass source for the sustainable
energy transition and energy mix in Pakistan. Alongside developed
innovative plan based on all renewable energy sources for the economic
development of Pakistan. The study’s ndings are intended to motivate
Pakistan’s think tanks to launch a number of projects to capitalise on the
country’s vast biomasses and steer the country overall toward envi-
ronmental sustainability.
4. Results and discussion
4.1. Energy demand in Pakistan
Ongoing and sustainable energy scenarios were developed in this
study for the accurate estimation of future carbon emissions, energy
demand and production for the study period 2022 to 2050 in Pakistan.
Residential sector consumed greater energy as compared with the other
sectors. The demand for industrial sector is also increasing day by day as
such new government promotes economic development in the country
and provided subsidy on the new investors in Pakistan. Commercial and
agriculture sectors are still at the growing stage due to the increment in
the population and unemployment. The demand for other sector is
increasing bit as compared with the last ve years because of greater use
of electricity for the public use. In the year 2025, the total demand of
energy was 163.53 TWh, which then increased to 966.05 TWh till 2050
as shown in Fig. 3.
4.2. Energy production under ongoing and sustainable energy scenarios
Production of energy is also increased from 186.88 TWh in 2025 to
1135.20 TWh in 2050 under the ongoing and sustainable energy sce-
narios as given in Figs. 4 and 5. Sustainable energy scenario suggested
that all the renewable sources are responsible to meet the total energy
demand till 2050. Biomass has share of 265.20 TWh followed by wind
Table 3
Merits and demerits of BTE conversion processes.
Process Merits Demerits
Anaerobic
digestion [51]
⁃ Low solid production.
⁃ Cost-effective technology.
⁃ Control of greenhouse gas
emissions.
⁃ Maximum recovery of energy
because of the enclosed
system.
⁃ Can be implemented on a
small scale.
⁃ Compact design needs less
land area.
⁃ Contain impurities.
⁃ Not compatible with large
units.
⁃ Susceptibility to shocks
and overloads
⁃ Unsuitable for wastes
containing fewer matters.
⁃ Waste segregation is
required for greater
efciency.
Landll gas
recovery
system [52]
⁃ Skilled labor is not required.
⁃ Provide the least cost
solution.
⁃ The recycling option is
available for natural
resources.
⁃ LFGRS produces gas that can
be used for thermal
application and as well as for
power plants.
⁃ Low lying marshy land can be
converted into stable land.
⁃ During rainy season
surface runs off.
⁃ Ground water and soil
contamination.
⁃ Large land required.
⁃ The cost of transportation
is high.
⁃ Greater chances for
greenhouse gases if biogas
is not utilized
appropriately.
⁃ Unpleasant smell on site.
Gasication
[53]
⁃ It produces fuel like oil and
gas which can be used for
many purposes.
⁃ High command on the
pollution control.
⁃ High moisture content
creates a problem in
energy recovery.
⁃ Greater viscosity of waste
creates problems in
burning.
Incineration
[54]
⁃ Reduction in volume up to
80% and reduction of mass
up to 70%.
⁃ More quantity of waste is
required for the furnace/
boiler.
⁃ Offers quick operation on
small pieces of land.
⁃ High exibility and easily
implemented in cities.
⁃ Transportation cost is too
low.
⁃ Air and water-borne
pollution.
⁃ High investment.
⁃ Social opposition.
⁃ Aerosol particles in the
atmosphere include NOx
and SOx.
⁃ Organo-chlorine
compound from HCL to
dioxins.
Table 4
Evaluation of BTE conversion processes.
Techno-economic evaluation
parameters
Anaerobic digestion [55] LFGRS [56] Gasication [57] Incineration [58]
Waste volume reduction up to 38% low 50–90% 90%
Pre-treatment cost high medium high none
Air pollution negligible 1.2 kg
CO
2
/kWh
0.11 kg
CO
2
/kWh
0.22 kg
CO
2
/kWh
Water pollution medium high small medium
Technical expertise low high high high
Land requirements 2 ha 36 ha 0.8 ha 0.8 ha
Capital cost 101,522 +3500 x U (U=Value of KW
installed)
1,200,000 USD/MW 3925 USD/KW 65,200 USD/tone-
day
Operation and Maintenance cost 16% of total capital cost 4% of total capital cost and 17
USD/MWh
4% of total capital cost and 4 USD/
MWh
4% of total capital
cost
M. Rehan et al.

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
6
290.09 TWh, solar 201.51 TWh, and hydro 266.41 TWh in the year
2050. However, the share of coal is 6.93 TWh, natural gas 2.92 TWh, oil
1.57 TWh and nuclear 1.95 TWh in the year 2050. While on the other
hand, ongoing scenario depicts that the share of fossil fuels is greater
than the sustainable energy scenario, coal contributed in greater ca-
pacity of 141.35 TWh, followed by nuclear 32.03 TWh, natural gas 7.09
TWh and oil 0.18 TWh in the year 2050. The share of renewables in-
cludes hydro 600.81 TWh, wind 173.24 TWh, solar 63.21 TWh and
biomass 18.73 TWh in the year 2050. The share of biomass is increased
from 18.73 TWh in ongoing scenario to 265.20 TWh in the sustainable
energy scenario in the year 2050.
4.3. CO
2
emissions under ongoing and sustainable energy scenarios
CO
2
emissions are forecasted under the ongoing and sustainable
energy scenarios as given in Figs. 6 and 7 for the study period 2022 to
2050.
CO
2
emissions of coal is much greater than natural gas and furnace
oil. Coal has produced 135.27 million metric tons of CO
2
emissions
followed by natural gas (3.10 million metric tons) and furnace oil (0.09
million metric tons) under the ongoing scenario in the year 2050. While
in sustainable energy scenario, almost all renewable sources were used
to meet the energy demand, so CO
2
emissions are much lesser than
ongoing scenario. In sustainable energy scenario coal produced 6.63
million metric tons of CO
2
emissions followed by natural gas (1.27
million metric tons) and furnace oil (0.81 million metric tons) in the
2050. CO
2
emissions are reduced from 138.47 million metric tons in
ongoing scenario to 8.71 million metric tons under the sustainable en-
ergy scenario in the year 2050.
Practically, it is possible to implement the power plants based on
biomass resource in Pakistan. Annually, large amount of waste is
generated from the forest, animal, municipalities and agriculture sec-
tors. This waste can be utilized for green energy production which ul-
timately reduces the dependency on fossil fuels. In Pakistan, twenty ve
sugar mills has installed cogeneration plants with gross power capacity
output of 1044 MW (6094 GWh/yr) by using bagasse capacity of
9,667,993 tonne/yr. 3 MW power plants are also commissioned based
on rice husk source which are using capacity of 28,539 tonne/yr by
Fig. 2. Methodological ow diagram for harnessing electrical energy from biomass resource.
M. Rehan et al.

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
7
producing electricity of 475 GWh/yr. On the other hand, twelve power
plants are installed on waste landll sites in different locations of
Pakistan. Total dumped waste of capacity 26,985 tonne/yr is used for
producing electricity of 2829 GWh/yr with rated gross capacity of 359
MW. If this trend continues, the share of bioenergy will increase
accordingly hence reduces the carbon dioxide emissions which is
benecial for sustainable environment in Pakistan.
5. Limitations of work
Following are the limitations of this work:
1. This study does not consider the sustainability tools including
techno-economic analysis (payback period, rate of return and cash
ow analysis), life cycle assessment of biomass (development of bio
products), emergy analysis (identication of different qualities of
energy) and exergy analysis (merit of energy conversion).
2. This study does not used the integrated cost benet analysis module
of LEAP® model due to unavailability of technical data including
capital cost, operational cost and maintenance cost of the energy
system.
3. This study does not identify the exact hotspots of environmental
burdens.
Fig. 3. Energy demand of the Pakistan for the period 2022 to 2050.
Fig. 4. Energy production of Pakistan under the ongoing scenario for the period 2022 to 2050.
M. Rehan et al.

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
8
6. Conclusions and prospects
When evaluating Pakistan’s possible energy transformation paths
from fossil fuels to renewables, strict environmental legislation is ex-
pected to speed up massive reforms in the electricity sector by incor-
porating a greater part of renewables into the energy mix. As the carbon
emissions rises from fossil fuels, electricity from renewables (biomass)
may show to be a exible and effective solution in terms of sustainable
climate change. From 2022 to 2050, Pakistan’s potential energy tran-
sition pathways are examined using Low Emissions Analysis Platform
(LEAP®) software by creating ongoing and sustainable energy scenarios.
Bioelectricity generation is expected to increase from 18.73 TWh in the
current scenario to 265.20 TWh in the sustainable energy scenario by
2050. Bioelectricity in the generation mix, along with other green en-
ergy sources, can reduce system CO
2
emissions from 138.47 million
metric tonnes in the current scenario to 8.71 million metric tonnes in the
sustainable energy scenario by 2050. According to this study, Pakistan
should implement a sustainable energy scenario because 1123.15 TWh
units (98.74%) of green energy are generated (biomass contributed
265.20 TWh units followed by wind 290.09 TWh, solar 201.51 TWh, and
hydro 266.41 TWh) which is enough to meet the total energy demand of
966.05 TWh until 2050 with the lowest possible CO
2
emissions. So, it is
concluded that the development of green energy plan must be accom-
panied with the greater share of bioelectricity in the energy mix which
reduces the carbon emissions.
In future, sustainability features including techno-economic analysis
Fig. 5. Energy production of Pakistan under the sustainable energy scenario for the period 2022 to 2050.
Fig. 6. Carbon emissions of Pakistan under the ongoing scenario for the period 2022 to 2050.
M. Rehan et al.

Energy 275 (2023) 127472
9
(payback period, rate of return and cash ow analysis), life cycle
assessment of biomass (development of bioproducts), emergy analysis
(identication of different qualities of energy) and exergy analysis
(merit of energy conversion) are very much important for the imple-
mentation and commissioning of biomass projects.
Credit author statement
Mohammad Rehan: Validation, Resources, Writing - Review &
Editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration, Funding
acquisition. Muhammad Amir Raza: Conceptualization, Methodology,
Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data
Curation, Writing - Original Draft, Writing - Review & Editing, Visual-
ization. M. M. Aman: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation,
Writing - Original Draft, Writing - Review & Editing, Supervision,
Project administration. Abdul Ghani Abro: Conceptualization, Meth-
odology, Validation, Writing - Original Draft, Writing - Review & Edit-
ing, Supervision, Project administration. Iqbal Mohammad Ibrahim
Ismail: Project administration, Funding acquisition. Said Munir:
Writing - Review & Editing. Ahmed Summan: Project administration,
Funding acquisition. Khurram Shahzad: Writing - Review & Editing.
Muhammad Imtiaz Rashid: Writing - Review & Editing. Nadeem Ali:
Writing - Review & Editing.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing nancial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to inuence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgments
This research work was funded by Institutional Fund Projects under
grant no. (IFPHI-044-188-2020). Therefore, authors gratefully
acknowledge technical and nancial support from the Ministry of Edu-
cation and King Abdulaziz University, DSR, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
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