Muhammad Nadim Hanif

State Bank of Pakistan | SBP · Statistics

We have empirically examined the role of monetary aggregate(s) vis-à-vis short-term interest rate as monetary policy instruments, and the impact of State Bank of Pakistan’s transformation into the latter on their relative effectiveness in terms of inflation in Pakistan. Using indicators of ‘persistent changes’ in the underlying behaviours of variab...

Structural changes are quite common in macroeconomic time series. Moreover, any underlying macroeconomic relationship cannot be correctly specified unless we know the true model. Structural changes in time series and misspecification in empirical model are observed as shifts in the constant of the underlying relationship between the subject variabl...

Existing measures of core inflation ignore a part of ‘should be’ the core inflation. Exclusion based measures ‘exclude’ a part of persistent inflation inherently existing in the excluded part whereas filter based measures ‘filter-out’ the cyclical part also rather than the irregular component only. This study proposes a new idea to define and measu...

We identify private credit booms in Pakistan, using fully modified HP filter, and analyze the behavior of selected macroeconomic aggregates around these booms based on annual data over the period 1960- 2018. We observe that credit booms are associated with economic expansions, increasing asset prices, appreciating REER and widening of current accou...

This study compares forecasting performance of various models of inflation for a developing country estimated over the period of last two decades. Performance is measured at different forecast horizons (up to 24 months ahead) and for different time periods when inflation is low, high and moderate (in the context of Pakistan economy). Performance is...

Historically, the banking sector of Pakistan has been characterized by credit ceilings, directed and subsidized credit, controlled interest rates and lacking competition. This scenario prevailed till the financial sector reforms in 1990. However, after 1990, the banking sector changed significantly and the reforms led to notable improvement in the...

We have investigated effect of exchange rate changes to headline inflation in Pakistan using ARDL modeling approach. We have decomposed the change in nominal effective exchange rate for Q3:1992 to Q2:2017 period into positive and negative components and generated respective cumulative sums to explore if general price level adjusts differently to ap...

This research has investigated the sustainability of growth of non-financial firms in case of Pakistan. For this purpose, explanatory variable of Earnings per Share and Total Assets Turnover were used as Controlling Factors and Liquidity, Size and Cash flows were used as Independent Variables. Balanced Panel of 27 firms with 24 annual time dimensio...

The main purpose of this study is to examine the mutual fund industry of Pakistan, to examine the assets allocation pattern of mutual funds, how efficiently they are allocated into various assets categories and how investors base their future investment decisions either on past performance or on the basis of risk, size of fund, and availability of...

Business cycle estimation is core of macroeconomics research. Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter, (or HP filter), is the most popular tool to extract cycle from a macroeconomic time series. There are certain issues with HP filter including fixed value of λ across the series/countries and end points bias (EPB). Modified HP filter (MHP) of McDermott (199...

We study price setting in Pakistan using 1189 structured interviews of managers organized by the State Bank of Pakistan- Pakistan’s Central Bank. We find that on an annual basis the incidence of price adjustment is three times higher than in developed countries. The remaining price rigidity is explained by the existence of firms’ interactions with...

The study uses panel regression analysis to find out the herding behavior around macroeconomic announcement by using daily data of KSE-100 index return along with stock return of 249 listed companies and five macroeconomic announcements over the period from 2003-2013. The main purpose of the study is to explore whether herding behavior is more prom...

In business-cycle research, smoothing data is an essential first step to evaluate the extent to which model-generated moments stand up to their empirical counterparts. We put to test McDermott’s (1997) modified version of Hodrick and Prescott’s (1997) smoothing filter. On the one hand, our simulations suggest that relative to other filters, the mod...

Arby (2008) quarterised the production side of annual GDP, and its subsectors, for 1970-1971 to 2004-2005, based on constant prices of 1999-2000, as well as on current prices. This study provides quarterly estimates of (sectoral and overall) gross domestic production in Pakistan for the years 1999-2000 to 2011-2012 based on constant prices of 1999-...

“The answer to the question what is the mean of a given set of magnitudes cannot in general be found, unless there is given also the object for the sake of which a mean value is required. There are as many kinds of average as many purposes; and we may almost say in the matter of prices as many purposes as many writers.” Edgeworth (1888). We estimat...

Market based implementation of monetary policy embeds a swift and complete pass-through of changes in policy rate to market interest rates. This impacts the lending and deposit rates (retail rates) of the banking system. Incomplete and slow pass-through impairs the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study estimates the de...

This study estimates degree of intrinsic inflation persistence in Pakistan using aggregate price index, group level price indices, and individual commodity prices. Monthly data from 1959 to 2011 is used for the analysis. [SBP WP no. 52].

We present preliminary results of 1086 structured interviews about price setting behavior of the formal firms in the manufacturing and services sector of Pakistan. Our key discoveries are that frequency of price change is considerably high in Pakistan, lowering the real impact of monetary policy. Price rigidity is explained mainly by firms caring a...

This paper attempts to develop a small size macro-econometric model for Pakistan to analyze the effects of monetary policy on key macro variables through forecasting and simulations. The model comprises of 17 equations, out of which 11 are behavioral equations while the rest are either identities or definitional equations. OLS method is used to est...

Standard errors (S.Es.) of month on month and year on year inflation in Pakistan are estimated based on data for the period of July 2001 to June 2010 using stochastic approach as well as extended stochastic approach to index numbers. A mechanism is developed to estimate S.E. of period average headline inflation using these approaches. This mechanis...

Weak governance adversely affects firm’s net worth and consequently the value of its collateral. This negative impact on the collateral reduces the external credit available for importing inputs constraining potential output. As a result, a stronger procyclical monetary policy stance is adopted for protecting the exchange rate and hence arresting t...

The rapid growth in Islamic finance industry urges us to not only look for alternatives in the Islamic commercial banking, but also focus on the regulator and its role and functions to enable it to work in conformity with Islamic principles. This study reviews limited, but precious academic literature on central banking and monetary management in a...

The paper explores how the monetary and fiscal policies have coordinated with each other in Pakistan. It argues that monetary and fiscal policies have been executed independently throughout the study period that is 1964-65 to 2008-09 and there have been very few instances of coordination between the two policies while addressing prevailing economic...

Continuous growth in Islamic finance calls for studying the framework in which the monetary policy maker (i.e., central bank) performs its functions. Central banks in Muslim countries are using various instruments for monetary policy purpose including interest rate. As a result, Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) are facing issues in benchmarkin...

The sharp disagreement in economics literature about the nature of the relationship between financial development and economic growth is widely known. Empirical evidence is also mixed as has been documented by Levine (1997, 2003b). Most empirical studies focused either on indirect finance or on direct finance. Previous panel data studies also faile...

This paper explores the relationship between financial development and international trade competitiveness in the case of Pakistan. An earlier study on this issue, Hanif and Jafri (2008), has some empirical limitations as it is based on Engle-Granger (1987) two steps procedure while dealing with multiple variables regressions. In this study we have...

An artificial neural network (ANN) is an information-processing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. In previous two decades, ANN applications in economics and finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central...

Kletzer and Bardhan (1987) argue that countries with a relatively well-developed financial sector have a comparative advantage in industries that rely on external finance. Beck (2002), and Fanelli and Medhora (2002) find that well-developed financial sector translates into a comparative advantage in the production of manufactured goods. There has b...

This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political auton...

The emerging economies in the South Asian region have embarked on a bold reform process to develop the banking sector. This development has improved the transparency and accountability of the banking sector because these countries focused on ‘best practice’ corporate governance for banks. In view of a rapidly developing market with a slow pace of i...

Corporate governance of banks received immense importance in the aftermath of several episodes of banking crises in 1990s, some of which resulted into banking sector collapses. In an emerging economy like Pakistan, this issue becomes even more important. In view of rapidly developing market but slow pace of information dissemination, it is importan...

This paper examines the empirical relationship between financial development and economic growth for high income countries. The study focuses on both indirect finance and direct finance, separately as well as jointly. Applying the methodology of Nair-Reichert and Weinhold (2001) for causality analysis in heterogeneous panel data, two sets of result...

Macroeconomic policies are meant to achieve non-inflationary, stable growth. There are two major groups of policy instruments to achieve the purpose; one is related to monetary conditions and the other to fiscal conditions. Monetary instruments are employed by the central bank and fiscal instruments are employed by ministry of finance. The objectiv...

The process of financial sector restructuring started in Pakistan during early 1990s. For this purpose, international financial institutions, like World Bank and ADB, provided technical and financial resources. The objective of this exercise was to let financial system play its role in economic growth and development of the country in an efficient...

This paper examined the issue of managing public debt and analyses the present situation of public debt in Pakistan. When the government resorts to borrowing instead of introducing additional tax measures, to finance the budget deficit, it creates liability on itself known as public debt. Public debt accumulates over time if deficit in the budget p...

The financial system of a country comprises entities engaged in transactions involving financial instruments in money, capital, and foreign exchange markets. This sector has strong linkages with other sectors of the economy like external, fiscal and real sectors. The apex financial institution in every country is its Central Bank and the State Bank...

This paper estimates the size of informal economy in Pakistan by using monetary approach with some modifications, electricity consumption approach and MIMIC model. Under monetary approach, we take care of the issue of the stationarity of variables and use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model instead of simple OLS and add education as an addi...

This paper is part of efforts to develop macroeconometric model for Pakistan (MMP). This paper is an initial attempt to develop a small size macroeconometric model to foresee the effects of monetary policy through forecasting and simulations. We present the basic structure of macroeconometric model for Pakistan. This is a small-size model comprisin...

This paper examines empirical relationship between financial development and economic growth while incorporating the inflation rate effect on financial development for low income countries. The study focuses on both the indirect finance and the direct finance, separately as well as collectively. We apply most appropriate econometric methodology of...