Mary Lofton

Virginia Tech (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) | VT · Department of Biological Sciences

Water level drawdowns are increasingly common in lakes and reservoirs worldwide as a result of both climate change and water management. Drawdowns can have direct effects on physical properties of a waterbody (e.g., by altering stratification and light dynamics), which can interact to modify the waterbody's biology and chemistry. However, the ecosy...

Ecosystems around the globe are experiencing changes in both the magnitude and fluctuations of environmental conditions due to land use and climate change. In response, ecologists are increasingly using near‐term, iterative ecological forecasts to predict how ecosystems will change in the future. To date, many near‐term, iterative forecasting syste...

Water level drawdowns are increasingly common in lakes and reservoirs worldwide as a result of both climate change and water management. Drawdowns can have direct effects on physical properties of a waterbody (e.g., by altering stratification and light dynamics), which can interact to modify the waterbody’s biology and chemistry. However, the ecosy...

Water level drawdowns are increasingly common in lakes and reservoirs worldwide as a result of both climate change and water management. Drawdowns can have direct effects on physical properties of a waterbody (e.g., by altering stratification and light dynamics), and can also have emergent effects on the waterbody’s biology and chemistry. However,...

Communicating and interpreting uncertainty in ecological model predictions is notoriously challenging, motivating the need for new educational tools, which introduce ecology students to core concepts in uncertainty communication. Ecological forecasting, an emerging approach to estimate future states of ecological systems with uncertainty, provides...

Ecosystems around the globe are experiencing increased variability due to land use and climate change. In response, ecologists are increasingly using near-term, iterative ecological forecasts to predict how ecosystems will change in the future. To date, many near-term, iterative forecasting systems have been developed using high temporal frequency...

Globally significant quantities of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) enter freshwater reservoirs each year. These inputs can be buried in sediments, respired, taken up by organisms, emitted to the atmosphere, or exported downstream. While much is known about reservoir-scale biogeochemical processing, less is known about spatial and tempo...

Freshwater lakes and reservoirs play a disproportionate role in the global organic carbon (OC) budget, as active sites for carbon processing and burial. Associations between OC and iron (Fe) are hypothesized to contribute substantially to the stabilization of OC in sediment, but the magnitude of freshwater Fe‐OC complexation remains unresolved. Mor...

Freshwater lakes and reservoirs play a disproportionate role in the global organic carbon (OC) budget, as active sites for carbon processing and burial. Associations between OC and iron (Fe) are hypothesized to contribute substantially to the stabilization of OC in sediment, but the magnitude of freshwater Fe-OC complexation remains unresolved. Mor...

Near-term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub-daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change pre...

Near‐term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub‐daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change pre...

Freshwater phytoplankton communities are currently experiencing multiple global change stressors, including increasing frequency and intensity of storms. An important mechanism by which storms affect lake and reservoir phytoplankton is by altering the water column's thermal structure (e.g., changes to thermocline depth). However, little is known ab...

Oxygen availability is decreasing in many lakes and reservoirs worldwide, raising the urgency for understanding how anoxia (low oxygen) affects coupled biogeochemical cycling, which has major implications for water quality, food webs, and ecosystem functioning. Although the increasing magnitude and prevalence of anoxia has been documented in freshw...

As climate and land use increase the variability of many ecosystems, forecasts of ecological variables are needed to inform management and use of ecosystem services. In particular, forecasts of phytoplankton would be especially useful for drinking water management, as phytoplankton populations are exhibiting greater fluctuations due to human activi...

Near‐term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast re...

Near-term, ecological forecasting with iterative model refitting and uncertainty partitioning has great promise for improving our understanding of ecological processes and the predictive skill of ecological models, but to date has been infrequently applied to predict biogeochemical fluxes. Bubble fluxes of methane (CH4) from aquatic sediments to th...

Near‐term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross‐ecosystem analysis of near‐term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future d...

Lakes and reservoirs globally are experiencing unprecedented changes in land use and climate, depleting dissolved oxygen (DO) in the bottom waters (hypolimnia) of these ecosystems. Because DO is the most energetically favorable terminal electron acceptor (TEA) for organic carbon mineralization, its availability controls the onset of alternate TEA p...

Near-term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross-ecosystem analysis of near-term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future d...

Freshwater reservoirs play a significant role in the global carbon cycle by processing and storing large quantities of dissolved organic matter (DOM). Quantifying the magnitude of DOM fluctuations across multiple temporal scales can advance our understanding of how the controls on reservoir carbon cycling may vary. We monitored fluorescent DOM (fDO...

Near-term, iterative ecological forecasts with quantified uncertainty have great potential for improving lake and reservoir management. For example, if managers received a forecast indicating a high likelihood of impending impairment, they could make decisions today to prevent or mitigate poor water quality in the future. Increasing the number of a...

Anthropogenic freshwater salinization is increasing with global change. Rising freshwater salinity threatens ecosystem biodiversity, health, and services via toxicity to organisms and mobilization of nutrients and metals. Brining roads is one major source of freshwater salinization that continues to grow with rising urbanization. While the detrimen...

Lakes and reservoirs globally produce large quantities of methane and carbon dioxide in their sediments, which accumulate in the hypolimnia (bottom waters) during thermally stratified conditions. A key parameter controlling hypolimnetic greenhouse gas concentrations is dissolved oxygen. Land use and climate change have increased hypolimnetic anoxia...

The relative importance of top‐down vs. bottom‐up control of phytoplankton biomass in aquatic ecosystems has been long debated and studied. However, few studies have considered the relative importance of top‐down vs. bottom‐up control on phytoplankton vertical distributions and characteristics of deep chlorophyll maxima (DCMs), and fewer still have...

The development of low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in the hypolimnion of drinking water reservoirs during thermal stratification can lead to the reduction of oxidized, insoluble iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) in sediments to soluble forms, which are then released into the water column. As metals degrade drinking water quality, robust measure...

Reservoirs emit large amounts of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere relative to their small surface area globally. Among the different pathways of reservoir CH4 emissions, bubbling from the sediments (ebullition) and diffusion from the water surface are major contributors of CH4 efflux. The magnitude of ebullition and diffusion can vary substantially...

In freshwater lakes and reservoirs, climate change and eutrophication are increasing the occurrence of low-dissolved oxygen concentrations (hypoxia), which has the potential to alter the variability of zooplankton seasonal dynamics. We sampled zooplankton and physical, chemical and biological variables (e.g., temperature, dissolved oxygen, and chlo...

In the era of big data, ecologists are increasingly relying on computational approaches and tools to answer existing questions and pose new research questions. These include both software applications (e.g., simulation models, databases and machine learning algorithms) and hardware systems (e.g., wireless sensor networks, supercomputing, drones and...

Water column mixing can influence community composition of pelagic phytoplankton in lakes and reservoirs. Previous studies suggest that low mixing favors cyanobacteria, while increased mixing favors green algae and diatoms. However, this shift in community dominance is not consistently achieved when epilimnetic mixers are activated at the whole-eco...

Cyanobacterial blooms are increasing in waterbodies worldwide because of anthropogenic forcing. Most blooms occur at the water’s surface, but some cyanobacterial taxa, such as Planktothrix, are able to modify their buoyancy to access more favorable growing conditions in deeper waters. Here, we used in situ fluorometry to examine the vertical distri...

Lakes and reservoirs worldwide are increasingly experiencing depletion of dissolved oxygen (anoxia) in their bottom waters (the hypolimnion) because of climate change and eutrophication, which is altering the dynamics of many freshwater ecological communities. Hypolimnetic anoxia may substantially alter the daily migration and distribution of zoopl...

Metalimnetic oxygen minimum zones (MOMs) commonly develop during the summer stratified period in freshwater reservoirs because of both natural processes and water quality management. While several previous studies have examined the causes of MOMs, much less is known about their effects, especially on reservoir biogeochemistry. MOMs create distinct...

Bubble-plume mixing systems are often deployed in eutrophic lakes and reservoirs to manage phytoplankton taxa. Unfortunately, inconsistent outcomes from bubble-plume (induced) mixing are often reported in the literature. The present study investigates the response of phytoplankton to induced mixing using a whole-reservoir field experiment and a thr...

Studies that examine the effects of artificial mixing for water-quality mitigation in lakes and reservoirs often view a water column with a one-dimensional (1-D) perspective (e.g., homogenized epilimnetic and hypolimnetic layers). Artificial mixing in natural water bodies, however, is inherently three-dimensional (3-D). Using a 3-D approach experim...