ArticlePDF Available

Abstract

Assess the status of road safety in Asia and present accident and injury prevention strategies based on global road safety improvement experiences. Discuss the way forward by indicating opportunities and countermeasures that could be implemented to achieve a new level of safety in Asia. Review and analyses of data in the literature, among others from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and World Bank and review of lessons learned from best practices in high-income countries. Estimation of costs due to road transport injuries in Asia and review of future trends in road transport. Data on the Global and Asian road safety problem and status of prevention strategies in Asia as well as recommendations for future actions. The total number of deaths due to road accidents in the 24 Asian countries, encompassing 56% of the total world population, is 750.000 per year (statistics 2010). The total number of injuries are more than 50 million, of which 12% are hospital admissions. The loss to the economy in the 24 Asian countries is estimated to around 800 billion US$ or 3.6% of GDP. This paper clearly shows that road safety is causing large problems and costs in Asia with an enormous impact on the well-being of people, economy and productivity. In many of the Asian low- and middle-income countries the yearly number of fatalities and injuries is still further increasing. Vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists and motor cyclist combined) are particularly at risk. Road safety in Asia should be given rightful attention, including taking powerful, effective actions. This review stresses the need for reliable accident data, since there is a large underreporting in the official statistics. Reliable accident data are imperative to determine evidence based intervention strategies and monitor the success of these interventions and analyses. On the other hand, lack of good high quality accident data should not be an excuse to postpone interventions. There are many opportunities for evidence-based transport safety improvements, including measures concerning the five key risk factors: speed, drunk-driving, not wearing motorcycle helmets, not wearing seat-belts and not using child restraints in cars, as specified in the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020. In this commentary, a number of new additional measures are proposed which are not covered in the Decade of Action Plan. These new measures include separate roads or lanes for pedestrians and cyclists, helmet wearing for e-bike riders, special attention to elderly persons in public transportation, introduction of emerging collision avoidance technologies in particular automatic emergency braking (AEB) and alcohol locks, improved truck safety focussing on the other road user (including blind spot detection technology, under-ride protection at the front, rear and side and energy absorbing fronts) and improvement of motorcycle safety concerning protective clothing, requirements for advanced braking systems, improved visibility of motorcycles by using day-time running lights and better guard rails.
Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at
http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=gcpi20
Download by: [217.211.250.212] Date: 17 August 2016, At: 09:20
Traffic Injury Prevention
ISSN: 1538-9588 (Print) 1538-957X (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/gcpi20
Commentary: Status of road safety in Asia
Jac Wismans, Ingrid Skogsmo, Anna Nilsson-Ehle, Anders Lie, Marie Thynell
& Gunnar Lindberg
To cite this article: Jac Wismans, Ingrid Skogsmo, Anna Nilsson-Ehle, Anders Lie, Marie Thynell
& Gunnar Lindberg (2016) Commentary: Status of road safety in Asia, Traffic Injury Prevention,
17:3, 217-225, DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2015.1066498
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2015.1066498
View supplementary material
Accepted author version posted online: 06
Jul 2015.
Published online: 06 Jul 2015.
Submit your article to this journal
Article views: 299
View related articles
View Crossmark data
TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION
, VOL. , NO. , –
http://dx.doi.org/./..
COMMENTARY
Commentary: Status of road safety in Asia
Jac Wismansa, Ingrid Skogsmoa, Anna Nilsson-Ehlea,AndersLie
b, Marie Thynellc, and Gunnar Lindbergd
aSAFER Vehicle and Traffic Safety Centre at Chalmers University, Gothenburg, Sweden; bSwedish Transport Administration and Chalmers University,
Gothenburg, Sweden; cSchool of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; dInstitute of Transport Economics (TØI), Oslo, Norway
ARTICLE HISTORY
Received  March 
Accepted  June 
KEYWORDS
safety; restraints;
countermeasures; serious
injuries; NCAP; regulations;
epidemiology; road users
ABSTRACT
Objectives: The objective of this article is to assess the status of road safety in Asia and present accident
and injury prevention strategies based on global road safety improvement experiences and discuss the way
forward by indicating opportunities and countermeasures that could be implemented to achieve a new
level of safety in Asia.
Methods: This study provides a review and analyses of data in the literature,including from the World Health
Organization (WHO) and World Bank, and a review of lessons learned from best practices in high-income
countries. In addition, an estimation of costs due to road transport injuries in Asia and review of future trends
in road transport is provided.
Results: Data on the global and Asian road safety problem and status of prevention strategies in Asia as well
as recommendations for future actions are discussed. The total number of deaths due to road accidents in
the 24 Asian countries, encompassing 56% of the total world population, is 750,000 per year (statistics 2010).
The total number of injuries is more than 50 million, of which 12% are hospital admissions. The loss to the
economy in the 24 Asian countries is estimated to around US$800 billion or 3.6% of the gross domestic
product (GDP).
Conclusions: This article clearly shows that road safety is causing large problems and high costs in Asia,
with an enormous impact on the well-being of people, economy, and productivity. In many Asian low-
and middle-income countries, the yearly number of fatalities and injuries is increasing. Vulnerable road
users (pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists combined) are particularly at risk. Road safety in Asia should
be given rightful attention, including taking powerful, eective actions. This review stresses the need for
reliable accident data, because there is considerable underreporting in the ocial statistics. Reliable acci-
dent data are imperative to determine evidence-based intervention strategies and monitor the success of
these interventions and analyses. On the other hand, lack of good high-quality accident data should not be
an excuse to postpone interventions. There are many opportunities for evidence-based transport safety
improvements, including measures concerning the 5 key risk factors: speed, drunk driving, not wearing
motorcycle helmets, not wearing seat belts, and not using child restraints in cars, as specied in the Decade
of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020. In this commentary, a number of additional measures are proposed
that are not covered in the Decade of Action Plan. These new measures include separate roads or lanes
for pedestrians and cyclists; helmet wearing for e-bike riders; special attention to elderly persons in public
transportation; introduction of emerging collision avoidance technologies, in particular automatic emer-
gency braking (AEB) and alcohol locks; improved truck safety focusing on the other road user (including
blind spot detection technology; underride protection at the front, rear, and side; and energy-absorbing
fronts); and improvements in motorcycle safety concerning protective clothing, requirements for advanced
braking systems, improved visibility of motorcycles by using daytime running lights, and better guardrails.
Introduction
Recent publications from the World Health Organization
(WHO 2013)andtheInstituteforHealthMetricsandEvalua-
tion (IHME)–World Bank (2014)estimatethatworldwidesome
1.3 million people die yearly due to injuries in road accidents,
and many more are injured, often with long-term disabilities as
a consequence. This tragedy aects in particular those entering
their most productive years (IHME/World Bank 2014;WHO
2013). The number of road trac injuries is increasing in low-
and middle-income countries while it is stabilizing or decreasing
in many high-income countries (IHME/World Bank 2014). For
CONTACT Jac Wismans jac.wismans@chalmers.se SAFER Vehicle and Traffic Safety Centre at Chalmers University, SE- , Gothenburg, Sweden.
Managing Editor David Viano oversaw the review of this article.
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed on the publisher’s website.
the 2015 scal year, low-income economies are dened by the
World B a n k as th o s e wit h a g r oss nat i o n al in c o m e per c a p i t a of
$1,045 or less in 2013 and middle-income economies are those
with a gross national income per capita of more than $1,045 but
less than $12,746 (World Bank 2015). The rapid motorization
in many developing countries without timely introduction of
accident and injury prevention strategies is the main reason for
this. The world vehicle eet, which was about 1 billion in 2010,
is estimated to double by 2020, and this increase particularly
occurs in developing countries (International Road Assessment
Programme [iRAP] 2008).
©  Taylor & FrancisGroup, LLC
218 J. WISMANS ET AL.
The Asian Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Ini-
tiative, which is a joint initiative of the United Nations Centre for
Regional Development and the Ministry of the Environment–
Japan, was launched in 2004. It aims to build a common under-
standing across Asia on the essential elements of a sustainable
transportsystemandtheneedforanintegratedapproachatlocal
and national level to deal with multisectorial environment and
transport issues (United Nations Centre for Regional Develop-
ment 2010). Road safety is one of the core elements within the
Asian EST initiative. Currently, the following 24 Asian coun-
tries, representing 56% of the world population, are partici-
pating in the Asian EST initiative: Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Peoples Republic of China, Indone-
sia, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Lao PDR, Malaysia, The
Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Pakistan,
the Russian Federation, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-
Leste, and Vietnam.
This article aims to review and summarize the most recent
and relevant information on the global safety problem. Particu-
larattentionwillbegiventotheAsianESTcountriesandacci-
dent and injury prevention strategies based on experience and
eectiveness in developed countries will be presented. Status of
implementation and indication for new opportunities to prevent
road accident death in Asia will also be discussed.
This article is based on a report (Wismans et al. 2014)pre-
pared for the 8th Regional EST Forum in Asia in Colombo,
November 19–21, 2014, with the theme “Next Generation Solu-
tions for Clean Air and Sustainable Transport—Towards a Live-
able Society in Asia. The methodology used for this study
included a review and analyses of data in literature, among
others from the WHO and the World Bank; review of lessons
learned from best practices in high-income countries; estima-
tion of costs due to road transport injuries in Asia; and review
of future trends in road transport.
The road safety problem
In 2004, the WHO and the World Bank jointly launched the
World Report on Road Trac Injury Prevention (Peden et al.
2004). The report identied, among others, the need for accu-
rate, reliable accident data systems in order to allow countries
to develop evidence-based road safety strategies and noted that
in many low- and middle-income countries, systematic eorts
to collect road trac data are not well developed yet. In order
to assist countries in setting up good accident data systems,
the WHO, together with some of its partners, developed a
road safety manual concerning accident databases (WHO 2010)
that contains detailed background on how to set up new acci-
dent database systems, strategies for improving data quality and
strengthening the performance of systems already in place, as
well as country-specic examples.
Since the launch of the WorldReportonRoadTracInjury
Prevention (Peden et al. 2004), 2 global status reports on road
safety have been published by the WHO (2009,2013). In these
reports, data that were collected with the help of dierent sectors
and stakeholders in each country are presented. For details on
the methodology for collecting the data, refer to WHO (2013).
The accident data included in the 2013 report concern the year
2010. For 2015, a third status report is planned.
Data presented in 2014 by the Global Road Safety Facility
at the World Bank in cooperation with the Institute for Health
Metrics and Evaluation (IHME/World Bank 2014)arebasedon
the GlobalBurdenofDiseases,Injuries,andRiskFactorsStudy
2010 (GBD 2010;see:Lozanoetal.2012,Vosetal.2012,Mur-
ray et al. 2012 and Salamon et al. 2012). The data are for the
same year (2010) as the WHO (2013)statusreport.TheGBD
2010 quantied the comparative magnitude of health loss due
to 291 listed diseases and injuries, including direct consequences
of disease and injury and risk factors for 20 age groups and also
covered both sexes. It produced estimates for 187 countries and
21 regions and assessments of the burden of road injuries.
Global fatalities and injuries
The WHO (2013) study estimates about 1.24 million road fatal-
ities in the world annually in 2010. The IHME/World Bank
(2014) estimates are slightly higher: almost 1.33 million deaths
duetomotorizedtransport.
Deaths due to road accidents are just the tip of the iceberg.
Nonfatal injuries are much more dicult to record and mea-
sure than fatal injuries. The reasons for this include diculties
in dening the severity of injuries and availability of good hos-
pital data linked to police data (see IHME/World Bank 2014;
IRTAD-OECD/ITF 2010;WHO2013). This is particularly true
for pedestrians and cyclists, who in many cases are completely
unreported.
The GBD 2010 data analyzed in the IHME/World Bank
(2014) study represent the rst attempt to quantify data on non-
fatal injury on a global level. For the year 2010, the number of
injured persons worldwide due to road accidents was estimated
to be 78.2 million persons needing medical care, of which 9.2
million requiring a hospital admission. These hospital admis-
sions were dened as “injuries that would have required at least
an overnight hospital stay if adequate access to medical care had
been available to the victims” (IHME/World Bank 2014; p. 44).
Considering the number of 1.33 million deaths in 2010 due to
road accidents, the resulting ratio between fatalities, hospital
admissions, and other injuries based on these GBD 2010 esti-
mates would be 1:7:52. The number of injuries reported in the
IHME/World Bank (2014) study are higher and more precise
than the earlier injury data reported by the WHO in various
reports (20–50 million).
Fatalities and injuries in Asia
Table A1 (see online supplement) summarizes the number of
deaths caused by road accidents in 2010 in the Asian EST coun-
tries derived from dierent sources. The 2010 population of each
country is included (WHO 2013). Also shown are the number
of nonfatal injuries (hospital admissions and total number of
injuries) based on IHME/Wold Bank (2014).
The total number of estimated deaths by WHO (2013)and
IHME/World Bank (2014), respectively, has the same order of
magnitude—around 750,000—but large dierences within some
individual countries can be seen between these 2 sources: up to a
factor 2 or more in countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and
Pakistan.WhencomparingtheWHOandIHME/WorldBank
data with the ocial country data, the estimated total number
TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 219
of deaths for the 24 Asian EST countries is more than twice the
value from ocial sources, indicating high underreporting. This
in particular appears to be the case in Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Pakistan, Myanmar, India, and China. In China, for example,
the ocial country statistics are provided by the national traf-
c police. But China also has a nationally representative sample
registration system (the Disease Surveillance Points [DSP] sys-
tem) that uses verbal autopsy to monitor causes of death and
a national death registration system (IHME/World Bank 2014).
TheIHME/WorldBank(2014) study showed an underreporting
of more than 300% for the ocial country data when compared
to the DSP-based data (so only one quarter of all road accident
deaths in the DSP-based data are included in the ocial Chinese
country statistics).
Regarding injuries, the total number in the 24 Asian EST
countries is more than 50 million, of which 12% are hospital
admissions. This means that 66%, or two thirds, of all injuries
worldwide occur in Asian EST countries, whereas the regions
total population is 56% of the world population (IHME/World
Bank 2014).
FromtheIHME/WorldBank(2014)data,thetotalnumberof
deaths (in percentages) in the Asian EST region for the various
transport modes has been calculated. Pedestrians are the largest
single category, with 35% of all deaths, followed by vehicle occu-
pants,with30%.Vulnerableroadusers(pedestrians,cyclists,
and motorcyclists combined) make up 60% of the deaths due
to road accidents.
Road safety and economic impact
In addition to the invaluable human tragedy, trac accidents
are a huge loss for the economy. These costs can be divided into
direct economic costs, indirect economic costs, and value of life
per se (Elvik 2000).
The direct economic costs are more or less visible, as medical
costs, legal and emergency service costs, and property damage
costs. Medical treatment will for some patients continue over
many years, in the worst cases over their whole lifetime, and
it is necessary to estimate the present value of future medical
treatments. These costs are a visible burden to the economy but
constitute in general only around 10% of the total accident cost
(Department of Transport 2012).
The indirect economic cost of accidents consists of the value
to society of goods and services that could have been produced
by the person if the accident had not occurred. The value of a
personsproductionisassumedtobeequaltothegrosslabor
cost, wages, and additional labor costs paid by his employer. The
losses of an accident will continue over time up to retirement
and will grow with a growing economy over time. However, the
weight of the later years will be smaller because a discount rate
willbeusedinthecalculations.Toaccountforthelostlifespan
due to premature mortality, the number of years of life lost is
measured as the dierence between expected lifetime and actual
age when the accident occurred. Years of life lost will thus mea-
sure the number of lost productive years if it is adjusted for local
retirement age. For the Asian EST countries these costs have
been calculated to be US$81 billion or 0.4% of gross domestic
product (GDP) in 2010 for fatalities only, as described in detail
by Wismans et al. (2014).
Additionally, the human tragedy comes with a cost above the
loss of economic resources. People value their safety for more
subtle reasons than their lost production capacity. This value of
reduced accident risk may be expressed as a value of statistical
life (VSL). In most countries, this value is the dominant element
in the valuation of accidents. With a focus on the welfare of the
individual, VSL is estimated as the individual’s willingness to pay
for a small risk reduction, which is summed up to one “statisti-
cal life. VSL can be based on labor market observations (Vis-
cusi and Aldy 2003) or responses to questionnaires (Jones-Lee
1976). A vast literature on methodology and metastudies exists
(de Blaeij et al. 2003; Miller 2000; Viscusi and Aldy 2003), con-
cluding that although the methodology is not awless, it is more
appropriate than the alternatives. For the Asian EST countries
these costs have been calculated to be US$250 billion or 1.1% of
GDP in 2010 for fatalities only based on a VSL of 70 GDP per
capita as described in detail by Wismans et al. (2014).
Thecostofseriousinjuriesisbasedonavalueofserious
injury of 17 GDP per capita (iRAP 2008), which results in a
total cost of US$485 billion. Adding the cost for fatalities and
the cost for serious injuries, the value of prevention to the econ-
omy in the Asian EST countries is estimated to around US$800
billion or 3.6% of GDP for accidents in 2010 only (see Wismans
et al. [2014] for details).
In addition to these economic costs, trac accidents are also
a serious workplace hazard and may represent 30–50% of work-
place fatalities depending on the region and whether or not com-
muting is included (Adriazola-Delgado et al. 2010). These work-
place fatalities include road accidents with various forms of driv-
ing, including professional transport, driving during work hours
(for example, truck, bus, and van drivers as well as salespeople),
workers on the road (for instance, road maintenance crews), and
commuting to work. Note that many of these workers are also
the only breadwinner in a family.
Road injury prevention strategies and
achievements in Asia
Probably the rst systematic approach concerning accident and
injury prevention strategies was the so-called Haddon matrix
(Haddon 1968). It caused a shift from an almost exclusive focus
on trying to improve driver behavior to a more comprehensive
approach. The Haddon matrix identies 3 phases—pre-event,
event, and post-event—as sequential phases within a crash event
as well as 3 components: human (behavior and tolerance), vehi-
cle, and infrastructure (environment). This approach has led to
many successful safety improvements within all elements of the
matrix. Recognized limitations of this model are that neither the
concept of exposure nor the importance of interactions between
the elements of the matrix are addressed (Thomas et al. 2013).
New approaches like the “Vision Zero in Sweden (Breen
et al. 2008;Johansson2009) and the “Safe System approach
(OECD/ITF 2008) view the trac system more holistically. A
full Safe System approach to road trauma requires that the crash
energy in an accident is low enough to prevent (serious) injuries,
recognizes that humans will always make mistakes in trac,
and requires system designers to provide a transport system that
supports the highest level of safety possible (OECD/ITF 2008).
Other important elements are formulating road safety strategies,
220 J. WISMANS ET AL.
educating society to recognize road trac safety, setting targets,
and monitoring performance.
High-income countries have shown a continuous decline in
death rates in the past 2 decades. In Europe, the number of
road fatalities in 1990, which was around 75,000, dropped more
than half, to 35,000, in 2009 (European Commission 2010). In
the 2011 White Paper—Roadmap to a Single European Trans-
port Area (European Commission 2011), the European Union
aims at a further reduction of 50% of road fatalities from 2011
until 2020 and for 2050 to move close to zero fatalities. This
“zero vision goal should be achieved by new intelligent safety
technologies, applying improved safety testing, education and
promotion of use of safety equipment, and, in particular, atten-
tion to vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists, and motor-
cyclists) through safer infrastructure and new vehicle technolo-
gies (European Commission 2011).
The achievements in road safety improvement in Europe
and in many other high-income countries have in particular
also been achieved by implementation of requirements for vehi-
cle safety, including the regulations developed by the United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe World Forum for
Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations and the introduction of
consumer test rating programs (New Car Assessment Programs,
NCAPs). See Wismans et al. (2014) for an introduction and
overview of United Nations (UN) regulations and NCAP pro-
grams worldwide, including the role of Global NCAP. The UN
regulationsshouldbeseenasasetofminimalperformance
requirements. They are applied in many high-income coun-
tries, but implementation in other countries is still limited. In
an NCAP, the protection oered by a vehicle or a component
is rated by means of a star rating system and compared with
the performance of other vehicles or safety systems. Test sever-
ity and/or requirements are often more demanding than for UN
regulations.TheprimeobjectiveofNCAPsistostimulatecon-
sumers to buy the safest vehicles and safety equipment and to
encourage industry to develop safer designs. The eectiveness
of NCAP has been shown in various studies in which good cor-
relation between EuroNCAP scores and injury outcome in real-
world accidents could be demonstrated both for occupant and
pedestrian protection (Kullgren et al. 2010;Strandrothetal.
2011,2014). Further studies into the cost-eectiveness of the
introduction of consumer testing programs are recommended
in particular in low- and middle-income countries.
Decade of action for road safety 2011–2020
The United Nations Road Safety Collaboration (UNRSC) was
established in 2004, recognizing the need for the UN system
to support eorts to address the global road safety crisis. The
WHO was invited to coordinate the road safety issues within
theUNsystem(WHO2011). The rst milestone was the launch,
in cooperation with the World Bank, the WorldReportonRoad
Trac In jury Preve ntion (Peden et al. 2004).
In 2010 The United Nations General Assembly declared the
decade 2011-2020 as the Decade of Action for Road Safety
(United Nations 2010). The main objective of the plan was to sta-
bilize global road accident fatalities until 2020 and then reduce
theforecastedlevelsofglobalroadfatalitiesbyincreasingroad
Tab le . Summary of important actions within the pillars of the global plan for
the decade of action for road safety (WHO ).
Pillars Important activities
: Road safety
management
Establishment of a national lead agency
Establishment of a national road safety plan
with safety targets and budgets Setting up
monitoring systems for accident data and
other indicators of safety improvement.
: Safer roads
and mobility
Elimination of high-risk roads by  Safety
impact assessments as part of all planning and
development decisions Speed management
and speed-sensitive design of the road
network Ensuring work zone safety Set
minimum safety ratings for new road
investments that ensure the safety needs of all
road users Encouragement of education and
research and development in the field of safe
road infrastructure
: Safe vehicles Implementation of UN vehicle safety regulations
and NCAPs. Recommendations for inclusion of
technologies such as ESC and ABS.
Discouragement of import and export of new
or used cars that have inferior safety levels
Increased research into safety technologies
designed to reduce risks to vulnerable road
users Encouragement of managers of
governments and private sector fleets to
purchase vehicles that offer advanced safety
technologies and high levels of occupant
protection
: Safe road
users
Implementation (if not done yet) and
enforcement of laws and/or standards
concerning maximum speed, drunk driving,
and the usage of helmets, seat belts, and child
restraints, combined with public
awareness/education concerning these risk
factors Introduction of policies and practices
to reduce work-related road traffic injuries in
the public, private, and informal sectors
Establishment of graduated driver licensing
systems for novice drivers
: Postcrash
response
Implementation of a single countrywide
telephone number for emergencies
Development of hospital trauma care systems
Early rehabilitation and support to injured
patients Encouragement of research and
development into improving postcrash
response
safety improvement activities at national, regional, and global
levels.
Based on the Safe System approach, the Commission for
Global Road safety dened 5 pillars for a road safety policy
framework, which were used later in the Global Plan for the
Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 (Commission for
Global Road Safety 2009). Table 1 shows these 5 pillars from the
Global Plan together with important activities within each pillar.
Furthermore, within the Plan for the Decade of Action for
Road Safety, 5 key risk factors have been identied for which
global introduction and enforcing of legislation would b e impor-
tant: speed, drunk driving, not wearing motorcycle helmets, not
wearing seat belts, and not using child restraints in cars. Back-
ground on the introduction and eectiveness of measures con-
cerning these 5 risk factors can be found in the following 4 “best
practice guides” developed by WHO and its partners: (1) speed
management, (2) drinking and driving, (3) helmet use, and (4)
use of seatbelts and child restraints (UNRSC 2015). A system-
atic overview of the eciency of measures concerning these 5
TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 221
Tab le . Relative risk for different BAC levels (Wismans et al. ).
BAC (%) Relative risk
.–. .
.–. .
.–. .
Over . .
risk factors, based on an analysis of 117 studies from the inter-
national literature, can be found in TØI (2012). According to this
study, a reduction in the speed limit with 10 km/h from an ini-
tial limit of 90, 80, or 70 km/h reduces the number of fatalities by
14% and severe injuries by 9%. The relative risk of being under
the inuence of alcohol compared to a sober driver is summa-
rized in Tab l e 2, showing that even very low blood alcohol con-
tent (BAC) levels results in an increased risk by a factor 2. The
best estimate of the eect of helmet usage is a reduction in fatal
accidents of 44% and severe injuries of 49%. For wearing seat
belts, the probability of a fatal outcome is reduced by 40–50% in
the front seat of the car and by 25% in the rear seat. The eect
on reduction in child fatalities, if a child seat is used properly, is
55% for forward-facing seats and 71% for rearward-facing seats.
Social acceptance of measures, considering the variety in eco-
nomic and geographical dierences of Asian countries, is impor-
tant. For instance, in the case of wearing helmets for riders in
one of the hottest locations in the world, not only material prop-
erties of the helmet in high-temperature environments have to
be addressed but how user-friendly and comfortable helmets
are for riders. For example, in The Transportation Research and
Injury Prevention Programme at the Indian Institute of Tech-
nology (Delhi, India), research on helmet use in a warm climate
has been carried out. Dierent solutions have been developed,
including more open models and the use of alternative, more
aordable materials. Furthermore, to spur social recognition of
trac safety, continuous education of the younger generation in
particular should receive high priority.
Status of road safety measures in Asia
The WHO (2013) provides an overview of the road safety mea-
sures, including implementation of measures concerning the
5 risk factors and implementation of safety laws/standards in the
24 Asian EST countries. A number of the ndings in this report
are presented in Table A2 (see online supplement) and summa-
rized below.
Speed
All countries have some kind of maximum speed laws like max-
imum speeds in city centers. The eectiveness of enforcement
of speed laws was rated by respondents on a scale from 0 to 10,
where 8 and above is good. Only South Korea rated enforcement
asan8and4countriesrateditasa7(Cambodia,Japan,Sin-
gapore, and Vietnam). Countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
India, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand, however, showed
alowscoreof3.
Drunk driving
Laws concerning drunk driving exist in all countries except
Afghanistan and the Maldives. In 5 countries, no BAC levels
are specied: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, and the
Philippines. The overall eectiveness of enforcement concern-
ing drunk driving was rated by 21 of the countries on a scale
from0to10(seeTableA2)withhigh(8andhigher)ratings
in Brunei, China, Japan, and Singapore and low ratings (3 and
below) in 9 of the Asian EST countries, including India.
Helmets
All countries except Afghanistan have helmet laws for motor-
cycles and most countries control the quality of a helmet by a
helmet standard, except Bangladesh, Laos, the Maldives, Mon-
golia, Nepal, and Timor-Leste. Without adequate laws, the risk
of counterfeit helmets without sucient protection increases.
Thehelmetsuserateisavailablefor11countries(WHO
2013) and appears to be high (75% and more wearing rate)
in Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and
Vietnam.
Seat belts
The use of seat belts in the front seat is required in all Asian EST
countries except Afghanistan and Myanmar. Only 13 countries
require seat belts to be worn in the back seat. The eectiveness
of enforcement of seat belt use was rated high (8 and higher) in
Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea and low
(3 and below) in 7 countries, among others in China and India,
with a rating of 2. Actual gures are also available for about 10
countries (WHO 2013). They are high (more than 75% wear-
ing rate) for drivers in Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia,
South Korea, and Sri Lanka and low in India (27% use rate for
drivers) and Pakistan (only 4% for drivers). For Thailand, the
seatbeltuserateis61%fordriversandforChinanodataare
available in the WHO (2013)report.
Child restraint systems
Child restraints are required in 8 countries. No information is
available from the WHO (2013) report on the eectiveness and
enforcement of child restraint laws in the Asian EST countries.
National road safety programs
Most countries have national road safety programs, except the
Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Furthermore, 13
countries have specied national targets on reduction of death
due to road accidents. Only Japan, South Korea, and the Philip-
pines have also set targets for reduction of nonfatal injuries
(WHO 2013).
UN regulations
Most low- and middle-income Asian EST countries have not
implemented the UN regulations. As a result, there are many
cars produced and sold in these countries that are substandard
in comparison with the UN’s minimum safety requirements.
AccordingtoGlobalNCAP(2014), of 65 million new passenger
carsbuiltlastyear,onethirdwouldnotpasstheUNregulations
222 J. WISMANS ET AL.
for front and side crash tests (UN Regs. 94 and 95) and do not
have antilock brake systems (ABS) and electronic stability con-
trol (ESC) systems tted.
NCAP
NCAP programs have been implemented in Japan and South
Korea for quite some time. More recently they have also been
introduced in China (C-NCAP) and Malaysia, Singapore, and
the Philippines (Asian NCAP). India is considering includ-
ing an NCAP program (BNVSAP, Bharat New Vehicle Safety
Assessment Programme). The Global New Car Assessment Pro-
gramme (Global NCAP) was launched in 2011 to share best
practicesandsupportNCAPssettingupnewtestprograms.
ASEAN NCAP was set up by the Malaysian Institute of Road
Safety Research with support of Global NCAP. Note that NCAP
test programs worldwide do not always have the same test meth-
ods and assessment criteria.
Examples of good practices
There are many good examples of successful road safety projects.
Most of them share at least 4 characteristics:
a challenging goal,
recognition of the multistakeholder involvement needed,
the importance of having a common understanding of the
problemathand,and
a shared will to transfer the insights into hands-on actions.
This calls for sustainable partnerships involving the civil soci-
ety sector, local or national government to put ecient social
change into practice via legislation, and business, which can
catalyze implementation and contribute a focused eciency of
action. The need is expressed well, for example, by the World
Bank in its review of road safety activities in China (World Bank
2008). For an overview of examples of good practices and prac-
tical guidelines to develop road safety projects, see the publi-
cations developed jointly by multiple partner agencies of the
UN Road Safety Collaboration on the UNRSC website (UNRSC
2015). One specic example concerns the iRAP (2015), which
assesses roads (including the maintenance condition) all over
the world and aims to signicantly reduce road casualties by
improving the safety of road infrastructure. Its activities include
inspecting high-risk roads and developing star ratings, safer
roads investment plans, and risk maps. Rating of a road means
that a protocol-based safety assessment is made resulting in
assigning the road design 1 (worst) to 5 (best) stars.
Future trends
Thetransportofpeopleandgoodsintheworldwillundergo
many changes the next 20–30 years due to increases in urban-
ization and increased environmental concerns, changes in use
of transport modes and mobility needs, shortage of natu-
ral resources, strong application of Intelligent Transportation
Systems solutions, changing views on private car ownership
etc. Two important linked trends and changes will be dis-
cussed here: The shift in transport paradigm and future safety
technologies.
Shift in transport paradigm
The global car and road system will continue to develop. Sev-
eral countries and cities are slowly shifting focus from planning
for the car society to instead make plans for low-carbon mobil-
ity based on a multitude of modes of transport. A large part of
travel in certain areas is made on public transport and by non-
motorized means of mobility. These modes will have to be fur-
ther developed, modernized, designed, regulated, managed, and
controlled by authorities in order to meet the safety require-
ments and to be more secure. In many countries in Southeast
Asia it is often the case that informal public transport, footpaths,
and roads are not designed or maintained accordingly, hence
impeding walkability and access for low-income families. Street
lights are often missing; cars and heavy vehicles drive too fast,
etc. Therefore, a greater responsibility for making nonmotorized
and/or informal means of mobility safe will be part of the next
generation of transport policies.
Goods transport is an important cause of unsafe conditions
because growing cities have an increased requirement for goods
distribution and waste management. Research shows that intro-
ducing new logistics planning resulting in more ecient and less
intrusive transport operations signicantly increases safety and,
atthesametime,decreasescongestionandCO
2emissions.
Theincreasingnumbersoftravelersinthesystemsoftrans-
port and on roads imply a range of new and old issues that have
to be addressed by authorities. Examples include city planning,
the design of safe streets and intersections for all road users, and
secure public transport infrastructure. It is foreseen that a mix of
heterogeneous measures, some of them building on smart tech-
nology, are needed to improve safety together with behavioral
and attitudinal changes to assume a shared responsibility for
the enormous amount of traveling in what is called the Asian
Century. The transport behaviors of road users from all socioe-
conomic groups, ages, and sexes need to be surveyed and the
results integrated in a comprehensive national trac and trans-
portplanningbasedontheprinciplesofroadsafety.
Future safety technologies
Among the trends in the fast development of technology, there
are 2 trends that will inuence the research roadmaps and future
vehicles, especially in high-income countries:
introduction of more sustainable vehicles using alternative
propulsion systems and
vehicle automation, ultimately leading to fully automated
drivingwherethedrivermaybeoutoftheloopattheend.
More sustainable and lighter vehicle
New propulsion system (like electric vehicles) in conjunction
with weight and size reduction will lead to new vehicle architec-
tures that pose new challenges concerning vehicle safety, such
as protection of occupants in crashes with signicantly heavier
vehicles. The electrication trend is also aecting pedal cycle
design. Bicycles are increasingly becoming partially electried
and this is likely leading to elevated speeds for this vulner-
able road user category and consequently higher injury risk.
The lightweight trend will also result in increased popularity of
ultralight vehicles, for which no safety requirements yet exist.
TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 223
Automated driving
The automotive community has achieved signicant progress in
the development of automated vehicles in conjunction with fast
developments in the eld of intelligent transport systems tech-
nology. There are also new players outside the traditional auto-
motive sector entering the eld. In addition to many technical
issues, there are several other questions to sort out, such as how
to secure a net safety benet from automated trac and whether
developing countries can benet from these developments. Dif-
ferent levels of automated driving can be distinguished. Sev-
eral organizations have proposed denitions for the levels of
automation in automated driving like NHTSA (2013). The lev-
els vary from 0 (no automation) to 4 (fully self-driving automa-
tion). Currently several systems are already commercially avail-
able,suchasadaptivecruisecontrol,lane-keepingassist,and
autonomous emergency braking (AEB), which are all examples
of level 1 automation; that is, the stage of driver assistance. Some
of these systems would oer signicant benet in developing
countries due to their safety potential. This is particularly true
for emergency braking in case of a potential crash with a vul-
nerable road user. Tests with automated vehicles and/or driving
on all levels are conducted worldwide, but the question remains
when automation will be widely available in consumer vehi-
cles. To have automated vehicles drive safely and eciently on
public roads, numerous challenges have to be resolved, includ-
ing behavioral, legal, social, and technological aspects. Auto-
mated driving is expected to have signicant safety benets, but
although its ultimate aim is a 100% reduction of accidents, there
certainly will be some crashes and injuries remaining.
The way forward in Asia
How countries have approached auto mobility is not only about
building roads and providing fuel. It also includes responsibil-
ity for adverse eects. The political system will have to assume
responsibility and develop protective measures because experi-
ence shows that market forces will not develop such measures
on their own. The various political levels (provinces, federal
states, cities, municipalities, and so on) have to take responsi-
bility and establish institutions that eectively engage in trac
safety issues. Such ambitions are in line with the denition of
sustainable transport.
Progress in the area of road safety in high-income coun-
tries was made possible because of important eorts in capac-
ity building, research, and the development of knowledge in the
area of trac safety. Studies of local conditions and the rea-
sons why accidents take place made it possible to develop ways
to reduce them. However, without a long-term commitment
to improve conditions on the road, political will, policy, and
planning, it would have been impossible to achieve safer roads.
There need to be institutions and human resources together
with a budget that pays for the work; otherwise, such develop-
ment does not take place. It has taken decades to build capacity
and implement policy and planning in developed countries. The
challenges to improve road safety in developing countries are
even much larger. This is due, among others, to the absence of
adequate infrastructure, unplanned urbanization taking place,
lack of a legal regulatory framework, and a strong increase in
motorisation.
Vision Zero has gained major support in highly motorized
countries. The basic concepts behind Vision Zero have global
validity. In every development of the road transport system the
targetcanbetoabsorbhumanerrors.Keyistocontrolenergy
transfer to the human body to safe levels. Speeds and designs
should have this in focus. Another cornerstone of Vision Zero
is the shared responsibility. Any organization inuencing the
design and use of the road transport system can contribute to
road safety. The management system standard ISO 39001 (ISO
2012) can be an important guide for many organizations. A Safe
System is the evident target for developing countries as well for
already motorized countries.
AlthoughmanyAsianESTcountrieshavemadegreat
progress, the potential for improved trac safety is high. If all
countries were to give high priority to implementing the most
relevant and eective activities in the Global Plan for the Decade
of Action for Road Safety, substantial further improvements
could be made. This in particular holds for addressing the 5 risk
factorsincludedintheGlobalPlan.
UNRSC is planning to update the Global Plan for the Decade
of Action in 2015. For an overview of a complete list of recom-
mendations for new activities in the Global Plan, see Wismans
et al. (2014). Here we shall highlight a few of the new topics rele-
vant for the Asian EST countries and taking advantage of recent
technological developments and research ndings.
Pedestrians and cyclists
Theambitionshouldbethatvulnerableroaduserscanmove
safely inside as well as outside urban areas. Separate roads or
laneshavebeenproventobesuccessfulinmanycountries.The
views of pedestrians as well as the pedestrian’s perceived safety
may vary signicantly in dierent parts of the world. Neverthe-
less, a person walking in trac should not have to worry about
falling, being injured, run over, or assaulted. Furthermore, in
many countries, a strong increase in the usage of e-bikes (electri-
cally supported bikes) can be observed, allowing higher speeds
than regular bikes. Helmet use for e-bike riders should be con-
sidered compulsory in order to change the trend of increasing
fatalities and injuries seen among pedal bicyclists. The success-
ful introduction of helmet wearing in many countries has shown
that the helmet not only protects in accidents with other vehicles
but also in single bicycle accidents.
Elderly persons
Keeping a high degree of mobility at an older age is essential
for the individual’s continued quality of life, and movements in
trac should be absent from worries for assault, harm, or injury.
Generally, members of this growing and heterogeneous group
are more fragile and spend more time in trac as pedestrians
andbicycliststhanotheragegroups.Thisneedstobetakeninto
account in, for example, public transportation and its associated
stops, access routes, and vehicles.
Collision avoidance technologies
In addition to the technologies recommended in the Global
Plan (primarily ABS and ESC), emerging technologies should
224 J. WISMANS ET AL.
be considered, in particular AEB and alcohol locks, which oer
interesting opportunities in developing countries. This holds
for passenger cars as well as trucks, buses, and motorcycles. It
shouldberealized,however,thatimplementationofsuchacci-
dent avoidance and other future safety technologies depends on
the regional situation in each country. In other words, the local
situation should be carefully analyzed before the introduction of
such new technologies.
Truck safet y
The Global Plan recommendations concerning trucks focus on
safe operation of trucks only. Much more can and has to be done
on the vehicles themselves, including visibility of other road
users; introduction of blind spot detection technology; under-
run protection at the front, rear, and side; and energy-absorbing
fronts for collisions with other road users (compatibility), and,
in particular, for Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) collisions.
Motorcycle safety
The Global Plan focus is on helmets only. However, much more
can be done; for example, promotion of protective clothing,
requirements for advanced braking systems on motorcycles,
measures that improve the visibility of motorcycles like daytime
running lights (Yuan 2000), and well-designed guardrails that
help mitigate the eect of an impact rather than making it more
severe (APROSYS 2009).
Conclusions
This article clearly shows that road safety is causing large prob-
lems and high costs in the Asian EST countries with an enor-
mous impact on the well-being of people, the economy, and pro-
ductivity. In several of the Asian EST low- and middle-income
countries, the yearly number of fatalities and injuries is increas-
ing, whereas in many high-income countries worldwide these
numbers are decreasing. Vulnerable road users (pedestrians,
cyclists, and motorcyclists combined) are particularly at risk.
The above gures and the material throughout the article
justifythatroadsafetyinAsiashouldbegivenrightfulatten-
tion, including taking powerful, eective actions. It stresses the
need for reliable accident data, which are imperative to deter-
mine evidence-based intervention strategies and monitor the
success of these interventions and analyses. Still, lack of good
high-quality accident data should not be an excuse to postpone
interventions. There are many opportunities as shown in this
article.
Improved road safety can only be reached when introduced
measures and actions are applied, respected, or observed. The
need for persistent promotion of measures already at hand is
obvious; even when data clearly point out the eects of dierent
measures, there are other studies showing that a high percent-
age of accidents and injuries are associated with the nonuse or
lack of enforcement of the measures. Bicycle helmets, seat belts,
speed limits, and optional safety equipment at vehicle purchases
are some examples.
Funding
This study was funded by Chalmers University in Gothenburg, Sweden.
References
Adriazola-Delgado et al. Michelin Challenge Bibendum.AchievingZero
Work-Related Road Deaths Road Safety Task Force; 2010. Available
at: http://www.challengebibendum.com/publication/White-Paper-
For-Safe-Roads-in-2050
APROSYS (Advanced PROtection SYStems). Final Report for the Work
on Motorcyclist Accidents (SP4). Molinero, Cidaut, 2009. Available at:
http://docplayer.net/6143131-Ap-90-0004-nal-report-for-the-work-
on-motorcyclist-accidents-sp4-project-no-fp6-plt-506503-aprosys.
html
Breen J, Howard E, Bliss T. An Independent Review of Road Safety
in Sweden. Swedish Road Administration; 2008. Available at:
https://online4.ineko.se/trakverket/Product/Detail/44643
Commission for Global Road Safety. Make Roads Safe - a decade of
action for road safety. 2009. Available at: http://www.afoundation.
org/media/44212/decade-of-action-report-2009.pdf
de Blaeij A, Florax RJ, Rietveld P, Verhoef E. The value of statistical life: a
meta-analysis. Accid Anal Prev. 2003;35:973–986.
Department of Transport. Reported Road Causalities in Great Britain.
2012. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/
uploads/attachment_data/le/244913/rrcgb2012-02.pdf.
Elvik R. How much do road accidents cost the national economy? Accid
Anal Prev. 2000;32:849–851.
European Commission. Towards a European Road Safety Area: Policy Ori-
entations on Road Safety 2011–2020. Brussels, Belgium: Author; 2010.
Europe an Commiss ion. White Paper—Roadmap to a SingleEuropean Trans-
port Area—Towards a Competitive and Resource Ecient Transport Sys-
tem. Brussels, Belgium: Author; 2011.
Global NCAP. Global NCAP Fleet Safety Guide and Safer Car Purchasing
Policy 2014–2015. 2014. Available at: http://www.globalncap.org/wp-
content/uploads/2013/07/gncap_brochure_lr.pdf.
Haddon W Jr. The changing approach to the epidemiology, prevention,
and amelioration of trauma: the transition to approaches etiologi-
cally rather than descriptively based. Am J Public Health. 1968;58:
1431–1438.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation/World Bank. Transport for
Health: The Global Burden of Disease from Motorized Road Transport.
Seattle, WA, and Washington, DC: Author; 2014.
International Road Assessment Programme. TheTrueCostofRoad
Crashes—Valuing Life and the Cost of a Serious Injury. 2008. Avail-
able at: http://www.irap.net/en/about-irap-3/research-and-technical-
papers.
International Road Assessment Programme. 2015. Available at:
http://www.irap.net/en/about-irap-2/safety-inspections.
IRTAD-OECD/ITF. Reporting on Serious Road Trac Casualties—
Combining and Using Dierent Data Sources to Improve Understanding
of Non-fatal Road Trac Crashes. International Trac Safety Data and
Analysis Group (IRTAD), 2010. Available at: http://www.international
transportforum.org/irtadpublic/pdf/Road-Casualties-Web.pdf.
ISO 39001, Road trac safety (RTS) management systems - Requirements
with guidance for use. 2012.
Johansson R. Vision Zero—implementing a policy for trac safety. Saf Sci.
2009;47:826–831.
Jones-Lee MW. The Value of Life: An Economic Analysis. Chicago, IL: Uni-
versity of Chicago Press; 1976.
Kullgren A, Lie A, Tingvall C. Comparison between Euro NCAP test results
and real-world crash data. Trac Inj P rev. 2010;11:587–593.
Lozano RL, et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death
for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global
Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012;380:2095–2128.
Miller TR. Variations between countries in values of statistical life. JTransp
Econ Policy. 2000;34:169–188.
Murray CJL, et al. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases
and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the
TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 225
Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012;380:2197–
2223.
NHTSA. U.S. Department of Transportation releases policy on auto-
mated vehicle development [press release]. NHTSA; May 30, 2013.
Available at: http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/
U.S.+Department+of+Transportation+Releases+Policy+on+Automa
ted+Vehicle+Development
OECD/ITF. Towards Zero—Ambitious Road Safety Targets and the
Safe System Approach. 2008. Available at: http://www.internationalt
ransportforum.org/Pub/pdf/09CDsr/PDF_EN/TowardsZero.pdf
Peden M, Scur eld R, Sleet D, et al. Wor l d R e p o r t o n R o a d Tr ac
Injur y Prevention. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization;
2004.
Salomon J, et al. Common values in assessing health outcomes from dis-
ease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global
Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012;380:2129–2143.
Strandroth J, Rizzi M, Sternlund S, Lie A, Tingvall C. The correlation
between pedestrian injury severity in real-life crashes and Euro NCAP
pedestrian test results. Tra c Inj Pr e v. 2011;12:604–613.
Strandroth J, Sternlund S, Lie A, et al. Correlation between Euro NCAP
pedestrian test results and injury severity in real-life crashes with
pedestrians and bicyclists in Sweden. Stapp Car Crash J. 2014;58:213–
231.
Thomas P, Morris A, Talbot R, Fagerlind H. Identifying the causes of road
crashes in Europe. Paper presented at: 57th AAAM Annual Confer-
ence, September 22–25, 2013.
TØI(InstituteofTransportEconomics).Handbook of Road Safety Mea-
sures [in Norwegian]. Oslo, Norway: Author; 2012. Available at:
http://tsh.toi.no/les/trakksikkerhetshandboken.pdf
United Nations Centre for Regional Development. Environmentally Sus-
tainable Transport for Asian Cities: A Sourcebook.Reved.Nagoya,
Japan: Author; 2010.
United Nations Resolution 64/255, Improving global road safety, 74th ple-
nary meeting 2 March 2010.
United Nations Road Safety Collaboration. 2015. http://www.who.int/
roadsafety/publications/en/.
ViscusiWK,AldyJA.Thevalueofastatisticallife:acriticalreviewofmarket
estimates throughout the world. JRiskUncertain. 2003;27:5–76.
Vos T, et al. Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1,160 sequelae of 289
diseases and injuries, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global
Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2012;380:2163.2196.
Wismans J, Skogsmo I, Nilsson-Ehle A, Lie A, Thynell M, Lindberg
G. Implications of road safety in national productivity and human
development in Asia. Paper presented at: Eighth Regional EST
Forum in Asia; November 19 to 21, 2014; Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Ava ila ble at: http://www.uncrd.or.jp/content/documents/22698EST-
P4_Wismans.pdf.
Wor l d B an k . China Road Trac Safety—The Achievements, the Challenges,
and the Way Ahead. Beijing, China: China and Mongolia Sustainable
Development Unit (EASCS), East Asia and Pacic Region; 2008.
World Bank. 2015. Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-
and-lending-groups.
World Health Organization. Global Status Report on Road Safety: Time for
Action. Geneva, Switzerland: Author; 2009.
World Health Organization. Data Systems, a Road Safety Manual for
Decision-makers and Practitioners. Geneva, Switzerland: Author; 2010.
World Health Organization. Global Plan for the Decade of Action for
Road Safety, 2011–2020. Geneva, Switzerland: Author; 2011. Avail-
able at: www.who.int/roadsafety/decade_of_action/plan/plan_english.
pdf.
World Health Organization. Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013, Sup-
porting a Decade of action. Geneva, Switzerland: Author; 2013.
Yuan W. The eectiveness of the “ride-bright” legislation for motorcycles in
Singapore. Accid Anal Prev. 2000;32:559–563.
... 5,6 Although member countries of the ASEAN have also implemented road safety interventions, these measures appear to have been insufficient. 7 In 2020, United Nations (UN) Member States issued a General Assembly resolution requesting countries to halve road traffic deaths by 2030. 4 Understanding what has been effective in high-income countries and what is unique to low-and middle-income countries is important to achieve this global target. ...
... Результаты Наличие системы курсовой устойчивости автомобиля, включая антиблокировочные тормозные системы, предоставит максимальные преимущества всем участникам дорожного движения: по оценкам, количество смертей сократится на 23,2% (диапазон анализа чувствительности: 9,7-27,8), количество DALY -на 21,1% (9,5-28,1). Более активное использование ремней безопасности, по оценкам, позволило избежать 11,3% смертей (8,9) и 10,3% DALY (8,(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)4). Соответствующее и правильное использование мотоциклетных шлемов может привести к снижению смертности на 8,0% (3,(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)9) и DALY на 8,9% (4,2-12,5). ...
... Более активное использование ремней безопасности, по оценкам, позволило избежать 11,3% смертей (8,9) и 10,3% DALY (8,(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)4). Соответствующее и правильное использование мотоциклетных шлемов может привести к снижению смертности на 8,0% (3,(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)9) и DALY на 8,9% (4,2-12,5). Вывод Полученные результаты указывают на необходимость улучшения конструкции безопасности транспортных средств и средств индивидуальной защиты (ремней безопасности и шлемов) для снижения смертности и потери трудоспособности в результате дорожно-транспортных происшествий в странах Ассоциации стран Юго-Восточной Азии. ...
Article
Full-text available
Objective: To evaluate road safety in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and estimate the benefits that vehicle safety interventions would have in this group of countries. Methods: We used a counterfactual analysis to assess the reduction in traffic deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost if eight proven vehicle safety technologies and motorcycle helmets were entirely in use in countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. We modelled each technology using country-level incidence estimations of traffic injuries, and the prevalence and effectiveness of the technology to calculate the reduction in deaths and DALYs if the technology was fitted in the entire vehicle fleet. Findings: The availability of electronic stability control, including the antilock braking systems, would provide the most benefits for all road users with estimates of 23.2% (sensitivity analysis range: 9.7-27.8) fewer deaths and 21.1% (9.5-28.1) fewer DALYs. Increased use of seatbelts was estimated to prevent 11.3% (8.11-4.9) of deaths and 10.3% (8.2-14.4) of DALYs. Appropriate and correct use of motorcycle helmets could result in 8.0% (3.3-12.9) fewer deaths and 8.9% (4.2-12.5) fewer DALYs. Conclusion: Our findings show the potential of improved vehicle safety design and personal protective devices (seatbelts and helmets) to reduce traffic deaths and disabilities in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. These improvements can be achieved by vehicle design regulations and creating consumer demand for safer vehicles and motorcycle helmets through mechanisms such as new car assessment programmes and other initiatives.
... Cities having a good rail transit network, road and vehicle infrastructure, bicycle tracks, had lower rates of road traffic injuries [47][48][49][50][51]. Various transportation programmes initiated in regions across Asia, South America, the former Soviet Union and low-income African countries, did not focus on reducing motor vehicle use by improving non-motorised transport design. ...
... This indicates a need for concentrated efforts by the government and society to implement necessary actions [52]. The review identified that lack of legal monitoring framework, unplanned urbanisation, absence of suitable infrastructure, and a surge in motorisation as challenges to improving road safety [51]. In order to determine new interventions to improve safety, there is a need for reliable accident data, but we identified a lack of reliable accident data in Asian countries due to underreporting, unlike the high-income countries where good progress is made in the area of road traffic safety due to capacity building, research and development [51]. ...
... The review identified that lack of legal monitoring framework, unplanned urbanisation, absence of suitable infrastructure, and a surge in motorisation as challenges to improving road safety [51]. In order to determine new interventions to improve safety, there is a need for reliable accident data, but we identified a lack of reliable accident data in Asian countries due to underreporting, unlike the high-income countries where good progress is made in the area of road traffic safety due to capacity building, research and development [51]. Therefore, we recommend that low-and middle-income countries have a more robust system for recording accident data in order to design new policies as per requirement. ...
Article
Full-text available
Transportation is among the key aspects that influence active ageing. This realist review intends to understand the mechanisms of urban mobility infrastructure interventions and policies in low- and middle-income countries for older adults and to identify factors, which influenced the success or failure of interventions. We followed the steps suggested by Pawson and colleagues for a realist review. Electronic databases were searched from inception until August 2020. Studies were screened based on titles, abstracts and full text. The quality of included studies was assessed based on rigour and relevance. The evidence was obtained from 36 articles with diverse study designs conducted in 36 low- and middle-income countries. Findings were validated through stakeholder consultations from three low- and middle-income countries. Of the various individual factors identified, behaviour change communication interventions were low-cost, had a long-term impact and were efficient in increasing awareness among users to improve safety, social inclusion and about transport schemes for older adults. Improved transport infrastructure resulted in a shift from private to public transportation. For a sustainable urban transport infrastructure, good governance and involvement of stakeholders for planning and implementing transport interventions were considered necessary. Lack of evaluation, experience of transport planners, and inter-sectoral coordination were key challenges to successful interventions. The review highlighted a lack of older adult-specific transportation policies, and gender-targeted interventions for older women, suggesting a need for interventions and policies based on the contextual factors existing in a region.
... It is estimated that annually 1.35 million people (WHO 2018) die due to road crashes which costs most countries 1-5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) (Gorea 2016;Wismans et al. 2016;Jadaan et al. 2018). In addition, there are other costs incurred by society that relate to increased travel time or delays, vehicle-operating costs (VOCs) and increased emissions due to these road crashes that might be substantial in any evaluation. ...
Article
Full-text available
Objective: In cost benefit analysis of road safety countermeasures, all relevant effects on safety, travel time and environment have a substantial impact during economic appraisal. However, in the most widely used road safety appraisal tools such as SafetyAnalyst and International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP), indirect effects related to travel time and environment are not considered. Most economic appraisal studies conducted for road safety countermeasures consider only the safety benefits and ignore the indirect benefits due to lack of models to evaluate them. This study attempts to document the quantitative impact of indirect benefits during economic appraisal of road safety infrastructure investments particularly from the angle of reduced crashes. Methods: To this effect, data from 9 European countries and the 20-year infrastructure improvement programme developed for the Netherlands are applied to demonstrate the impact of these indirect benefits through a quantitative study. Results: The results show that indirect benefits increase the value of benefits by 7%, which improves the cost effectiveness of countermeasures. Consequently, the number of countermeasures selected for implementation are increased due to addition of these benefits. Travel time benefits constitute the largest share of indirect benefits with a contribution of 6% to the overall benefits due to countermeasure implementation. Conclusion: In conclusion, indirect benefits have a substantial impact on the computation of benefits and countermeasure selection process. In order to present improved business cases for road safety infrastructure investments, there is need to include these benefits during economic appraisal process. Travel time benefits have the highest portion of all indirect benefits compared to vehicle operating costs (VOCs) and emission benefits. The study recommends conducting more research related to travel time benefits due to countermeasure implementation.
... [17] The rapidly increasing number of vehicles has led to a growing number of inexperienced drivers, low seat belt use, and poor road design with inadequate separation among pedestrians, cyclists, and motor vehicles, leading to many accidents and injuries. [18,19] Transportation-related risk factors, such as speeding and drunk driving, are signi cant sources of morbidity and mortality in China, and they have profound effects on public health. Protective technologies and associated policies for transport injuries in China include enforced use of seatbelts and child restraints in vehicles, helmet wearing, alcohol locks, and others. ...
Article
Full-text available
Background Spinal injuries are an urgent public health priority; nevertheless, no China-wide studies of these injuries exist. This study measured the incidence, prevalence, causes, regional distribution, and annual trends of spinal injuries in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 to estimate the incidence and prevalence of spinal injuries in China. The data of 33 provincial-level administrative regions (excluding Taiwan, China) provided by the National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were use to systematically analyze the provincial etiology, geographical distribution, and annual trends of spinal injuries. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to ensure the consistency among incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates in each case. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of living patients with spinal injuries in China increased by 138.32%, from 2.14 million to 5.10 million, while the corresponding age-standardized prevalence increased from 0.20% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.18–0.21%) to 0.27% (95% UI: 0.26–0.29%). The incidence of spinal injuries in China increased by 89.91% (95% UI: 72.39–107.66%), and the prevalence increased by 98.20% (95% UI: 89.56–106.82%), both the most significant increases among the G20 countries; 71.00% of the increase could be explained by age-specific prevalence. In 2019, the incidence was 16.47 (95% UI: 12.08–22.00, per 100,000 population), and the prevalence was 358.30 (95% UI: 333.96–386.62, per 100,000 population). Based on the data of 33 provincial-level administrative regions provided by CDC, age-standardized incidence and prevalence were both highest in developed provinces in Eastern China. The primary causes were falls and road injuries; however, the prevalence and specific causes differed across provinces. Conclusions In China, the overall disease burden of spinal injuries increased significantly during the past three decades but varied considerably according to geographical location. The primary causes were falls and road injuries; however, the prevalence and specific causes differed across provinces.
... This component is associated with the occurrence of traffic incidents that trigger government and public attention into action and feedback arising from the ability of government agencies to obtain traffic data on road accidents (Kingdon, 2003). Wismans, Skogsmo, Nilsson, Lie, Thynell, and Lindberg (2016) observe that there are situations where countries experience poor collation of data, under-reporting of accidents and inadequate data collection on the detailed circumstances surrounding incidents, which emerge from poorly organized transport reporting systems. This, for example, denies road safety a chance to appear in the political agenda list in Nigeria (Uhegbu, 2021). ...
Article
Full-text available
This research sought to assess implementation gaps existing in the enactment of road safety policy measures in Nyanza region using problem Framework. The study was conducted to evaluate the level to which the Problem Stream affected the implementation of road safety policy measures. The research used a descriptive survey and explanatory design with pragmatic research philosophy point of view while embracing mixed research approaches. The study utilized census, simple random sampling, and stratified random sampling, purposive sampling, and systematic random sampling techniques in drawing a representative sample. The sample size of the study was 347. The study interviewed 6 traffic base commanders, 2 county Matatu Owners' Association and 2 NTSA county directors. The study also employed both participatory and non-participatory observation to collect supplementary data. The reliability of the study instrument was assessed using Cronbach's Alpha, while the validity was assessed using factor analysis and expert opinion. Data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical methods. Quantitative data was examined by means of multi-linear regression approaches and Pearson correlation analysis. Linear regression was used to analyze the moderating variable. The findings established that problem Framework influenced the implementation of motorway safety policy measures among Matatu operators to a moderate extent. The study established that the government agencies need to digitalize data on road accidents and recommended a collaborative approach between government agencies responsible for the implementation of road safety policy measures. This study concluded that Multiple Streams influence the implementation of road safety policy measures, and so there is need for all policy actors to take into account all streams whenever they intend to initiate the enactment of road safety measures. This study recommended a comparative research of the study constructs, with the inclusion of policy window and policy entrepreneurs among road safety policy measure implementers.
... Figures show that in 2010, the total number of deaths due to road accidents in 24 Asian countries (56% of the total world population) was 750,000 with more than 50 million casualties, of whom 12% were hospitalized. The damage to the economy of 24 Asian countries was estimated to be around 800 billion US dollars or 3.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP) [9]. Transport accidents are one of the 5 main causes of death in Southeast Asian countries. ...
Article
• Introduction: The rate of deaths and injuries caused by unintentional injuries, especially driving accidents, in Iran is globally high. This study aims to explore the rate of the death due to unintentional injuries. • Material and Methods: This quantitative research used the secondary analysis of the data on death caused by unintentional injuries obtained from the civil registration statistics based on ICD10 from 2011 to 2018. Excel 2016 software was used for the analysis, and indices of rate, percentage, sex ratio, and years of life lost (YLL) were taken into consideration. • Results: The rate of death caused by unintentional injuries in Iran during the years 2011-2018 was almost constant but slightly decreased. The main decrease was for women and older people. In 2016, the rate of death due to unintentional injuries in men was 3.3 times that of women, and the highest rate of years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality was for men aged 14 to 49. The results also show that the death rate is high in less developed provinces with poor road conditions. • Conclusion: Despite the policies adapted about the deaths caused by accidents and the reduction of them, the results of the study show that one of the main groups and the target of these policies, namely young men, has not been affected much yet, and the death caused by accidents in young men is still high. Focusing on this population group, policies should be made to reduce the death of young men caused by accidents.
... 79,80 According to its most recent report, deaths from RTCs increased by 8% in 2019 compared to 2018, 80 not unlike other low-and middle-income countries in Asia. 81,82 Poor traffic management-including manual traffic control, lack of bus stops leading to passengers waiting in the road, and halfhearted implementation of traffic laws-is a common phenomenon in the streets of large cities like Dhaka. Combined with this are the outdated vehicles on the road driven by poorly trained drivers, poor awareness, and unwillingness to follow traffic rules. ...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction: We conducted a scoping review of the trauma care situation following road traffic crashes (RTCs) in Bangladesh to inform the design of a comprehensive program for mitigating associated morbidity and mortality. Methods: We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis approach to select relevant articles, documents, and reports following a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. In total, 52 articles and 8 reports and program documents were included in the analysis. We adopted a mixed studies review method for synthesizing evidence and organized information by key themes using a data extraction matrix. Results: Findings revealed RTC mortality to be 15.3 per 100,000 population in 2019. Pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists were the most vulnerable groups succumbing to moderate to grave injuries. We found that 81% of motorcycle victims did not use any safety device, an estimated 1,844 people per day suffered different degrees of injury, and 29 people per day became permanently disabled. The ambulance-based prehospital care operated in a disjointed and disorganized manner without standard operating procedures and dispatch structure. This disorganization and a lack of a universal communication system led to treatment delay, resulting in chronic disability for the victims. Injury-related patients occupied about 33% of hospital beds, 19% of which were RTC victims. The cost of care for these victims involved substantial out-of-pocket spending, which sometimes reached catastrophic levels. Since 2009, the management of RTCs has deteriorated with a concomitant increase in morbidity and mortality, resulting in a drain on people's lives and livelihoods. Conclusion: The current situation regarding post-crash care in the country, especially when RTCs are on the rise, is not compatible with reaching the SDG targets 3.6 and 11.2 or the government's stated goal of achieving universal health coverage by 2030.
... La problemática de la inseguridad vial y la deficiente cultura en educación vial, para lo cual se hace necesario que a través de técnicas preventivas de concientización se involucre a todos los usuarios viales y como último medio la aplicación de la sanción a los infractores (Pacheco-Cortés, 2017). Como alternativa de seguridad vial se propone convertir en política de estado la Educación en Seguridad Vial para que sea incluida en la malla curricular de estudios de todos los años de educación primaria y superior, para de esta manera generar y mejorar la Cultura de Educación Vial (Vecino-Ortiz & Hyder, 2015), (Wismans et al. 2016). ...
Article
Full-text available
La presente investigación que tiene como objetivo general: “Implementar una plataforma virtual educativa que permita el mejoramiento de la logística utilizada para la generación de una cultura de educación vial en la Región Norte del Ecuador”. Los procesos de educación virtual complementan de manera excelente a los procesos de educación presencial, también debe señalarse que con la educación virtual se puede llegar a lugares más distantes, también se puede llegar a un mayor número de personas y con una reducción apreciable de los gastos por transporte y personal, es decir la educación virtual evita muchos problemas de logística. Al terminar el desarrollo del aula virtual, se espera contribuir al aprendizaje que realiza el Departamento de Educación y Seguridad Vial de la Empresa Pública de Movilidad MOVIDELNOR EP., con base en Ibarra, además de mejorar la cultura de seguridad vial y la reducción de la siniestralidad, esto a largo plazo.
... It is well known that the use of child restraints has reached more than 80 percent in developed countries, such as the Commonwealth countries and the majority of European Union nations, which have laws mandating the use of child restraints [1]. In developing countries, however, the usage rate is low because many countries lack legislation regarding the use of child restraints [1,2]. For instance, the usage rate of child restraints in India is only 5% [3], and the actual usage rate of CRS (Child Restraint System) for children under six years old in China, the world's largest producer of child restraints, is only 17.3% [4]. ...
Article
Full-text available
In developing countries, child safety seat use remains low, which contributes to the consistently high rate of child injuries and deaths in traffic accidents. In order to protect the safety of child passengers, it is necessary to improve the public acceptance of child restraints. We improved the shortcomings of the traditional child restraints by adding some new features: 1, tightening Isofix automatically; 2, using temperature sensing, a high-temperature alarm, automatic ventilation, and cooling; 3, using pressure sensing, if the child is left alone it will set off the car alarm; 4, voice control to adjust the angle of the backrest; 5, the seat can be folded into the trunk. These functions make human-computer interaction more humane. The authors collected changes in parental acceptance of child restraints using the interview method and questionnaires. We found that acceptance increased significantly after making intelligent improvements to the child restraints. The authors used the Technology Acceptance Model to identify the key caveats influencing users’ use of intelligent child restraints. Performance expectations, effort expectations, social influence, convenience, and hedonic motivation positively and significantly impacted the willingness to use intelligent child restraints, so the authors suggest that these points should be emphasized when promoting the product. The current study findings have theoretical and practical implications for smart child restraint designers, manufacturers, sellers, and government agencies. To better understand and promote child restraint, researchers and marketers can analyze how people accept child restraint based on our research model.
... Road-traffic injuries (RTIs) are a major and urgent public health crisis in the world, and their incidence remains high in many countries [1][2][3]. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Road Safety Report in 2018 [4], the global road-traffic accident death toll is as high as 1.35 million people per year, and more than half of them are vulnerable road users, such as pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Electric Bike (EB) has become an ideal mode of transportation because of its simple operation, convenience, and because it is time saving, economical and environmentally friendly. However, electric bicycle road-traffic injuries (ERTIs) have become a road-traffic safety problem that needs to be solved urgently, bringing a huge burden to public health. In order to provide basic data and a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of ERTIs in Shantou, mixed research combining a case-control study and a case-crossover study was carried out to investigate the cycling behavior characteristics and injury status of EB riders in Shantou city, and to explore the influencing factors of ERTI. The case-control study selected the orthopedic inpatient departments of three general hospitals in Shantou. The case-crossover study was designed to assess the effect of brief exposure on the occurrence of ERTIs, in which each orthopedic inpatient serves as his or her own control. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine the associated factors of ERTIs. In the case-control study, multivariable analysis showed that chasing or playing when cycling, finding the vehicle breakdown but continuing cycling, not wearing the helmet, and retrograde cycling were risk factors of ERTIs. Compared with urban road sections, suburb and township road sections were more likely to result in ERTIs. Astigmatism was the protective factor of ERTI. The case-crossover study showed that answering the phone or making a call and not wearing a helmet while cycling increased the risk of ERTIs. Cycling in the motor-vehicle lane and cycling on the sidewalk were both protective factors. Therefore, the traffic management department should effectively implement the policy about wearing a helmet while cycling, increasing the helmet-wearing rate of EB cyclists, and resolutely eliminate illegal behaviors such as violating traffic lights and using mobile phones while cycling. Mixed lanes were high-incidence road sections of ERTIs. It was suggested that adding people-non-motor-vehicles/motor vehicles diversion and isolation facilities in the future to ensure smooth roads and safety would maximize the social economic and public health benefits of EB.
Article
Full-text available
This research applies a recently developed model of accident causation, developed to investigate industrial accidents, to a specially gathered sample of 997 crashes investigated in-depth in 6 countries. Based on the work of Hollnagel the model considers a collision to be a consequence of a breakdown in the interaction between road users, vehicles and the organisation of the traffic environment. 54% of road users experienced interpretation errors while 44% made observation errors and 37% planning errors. In contrast to other studies only 11% of drivers were identified as distracted and 8% inattentive. There was remarkably little variation in these errors between the main road user types. The application of the model to future in-depth crash studies offers the opportunity to identify new measures to improve safety and to mitigate the social impact of collisions. Examples given include the potential value of co-driver advisory technologies to reduce observation errors and predictive technologies to avoid conflicting interactions between road users.
Article
Full-text available
Estimated values of statistical life exist from 68 reasonably credible studies spread across 13 countries. The income-elasticity of values across countries ranges from 0.85 to 1.00 in models at different levels of aggregation. The values are typically about 120 times GDP per capita. Regression-based value estimates for most developed and developing countries are presented.
Article
Full-text available
Background: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. Methods: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. Findings: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. Interpretation: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Article
Full-text available
Background: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods: Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings: Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusions: Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Article
Full-text available
Background: Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. Methods: We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. Findings: 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. Interpretation: This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Article
Full-text available
Background: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. Conclusions: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Article
Pedestrians and bicyclists account for a significant share of deaths and serious injuries in the road transport system. The protection of pedestrians in car-to-pedestrian crashes has therefore been addressed by friendlier car fronts and since 1997, the European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP) has assessed the level of protection for most car models available in Europe. In the current study, Euro NCAP pedestrian scoring was compared with real-life injury outcomes in car-to-pedestrian and car-tobicyclist crashes occurring in Sweden. Approximately 1200 injured pedestrians and 2000 injured bicyclists were included in the study. Groups of cars with low, medium and high pedestrian scores were compared with respect to pedestrian injury severity on the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS)-level and risk of permanent medical impairment (RPMI). Significant injury reductions to both pedestrians and bicyclists were found between low and high performing cars. For pedestrians, the reduction of MAIS2+, MAIS3+, RPMI1+ and RPMI10+ ranged from 20-56% and was significant on all levels except for MAIS3+ injuries. Pedestrian head injuries had the highest reduction, 80-90% depending on level of medical impairment. For bicyclist, an injury reduction was only observed between medium and high performing cars. Significant injury reductions were found for all body regions. It was also found that cars fitted with autonomous emergency braking including pedestrian detection might have a 60-70% lower crash involvement than expected. Based on these results, it was recommended that pedestrian protection are implemented on a global scale to provide protection for vulnerable road users worldwide.
Article
Background Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. Methods We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. Findings 13 902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16 328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0.9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0.75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0.05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0.01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0.76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0.71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0.70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0.2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. Interpretation This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.