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Heterogeneous consumer preferences for alternative fuel cars in China
Abstract
This paper models consumer preferences for alternative fuel cars and conventional, petrol fueled cars in China. It compares discrete choice model specifications where each specification reflects how consumers choose between alternative fuel cars and conventional types of cars. We find that, in China, consumers differentiate between the types of alternative fuel cars and are more likely to consider switching from petrol fuel vehicles to hybrid than to electric cars. Segmentation analysis is used to explore groups of consumers and their likelihood of adopting alternative fuel cars.
... For example, Qian et al. (2019) consider three types of charging infrastructure (i.e., public fast charging, public slow charging and home charging) as well as two levels of charging speed when examining consumers' stated choice preferences for EVs in China. Regarding policies, many studies have examined the influence of monetary incentives (such as purchase subsidy and tax rebate) and EV-friendly policies (such as free parking, bus lane access and less restrictions on vehicle licensing; e.g., Madlener, 2013, 2016;Huang and Qian, 2018;Qian et al., 2019;Qian and Soopramanien, 2011). ...
... Table 1 outlines the attributes and their varying levels in the SP experiment. Specifically, we included three product attributes (vehicle purchase price, annual running cost and driving range) in the SP experiment, following the prior literature on EV choice (Hoen and Koetse, 2014;Qian and Soopramanien, 2011;Eggers and Eggers, 2011). Vehicle purchase price is the one-time upfront cost to acquire the vehicle ownership. ...
... As fast charging stations for EVs are not as established as petrol service stations for ICEVs (Tanaka et al., 2014), the density of fast service stations for EVs was assumed to be a varying proportion (i.e., 10%, 40%, 70%) of that of the existing petrol stations (Achtnicht et al., 2012). Similarly, the density of slow charging posts was assumed to be available in 10%, 40% or 70% of public parking spaces (Qian and Soopramanien, 2011). Fast and slow charging services differ significantly in their service speed (Junquera et al., 2016). ...
Sustainable innovations such as electric vehicles (EVs) are important means to address global environmental and energy sustainability challenges – one of the key agendas of current strategic government policy. Although EVs have gradually penetrated the market, existing research on consumer preferences for EVs is mostly based on cross-sectional analysis, without sufficient attention devoted to consumer preference changes over time. To fill this gap, this study proposes a longitudinal approach to extend the EV adoption research. Specifically, this study illustrates the value of studying consumer preferences for EVs from a dynamic perspective and focuses on changes in preference heterogeneity across different marketA segments over time. This study conducts three waves of stated preference experiments from 2017 to 2019 from a same group of respondents. The mixed logit analysis shows that, over these three years, Chinese consumers have become less sensitive to running cost but have been consistently valuing home charging capability and prioritized licensing for EVs. Furthermore, the perceived importance of the density of fast charging stations and overall preferences for EVs fluctuated over this period. Further analysis on preference heterogeneity finds that consumers in small cities were developing stronger preferences for battery EVs in 2018 and 2019 than in the base year of 2017, while those living in midsized and big cities did not present the preference change for battery EVs over the same period. Our study provides important managerial and policy implications for the diffusion of EVs, in particular with respect to specific insights obtained by taking a dynamic perspective to study consumer preferences for EVs.
... Also, certain policy attributes may play a significant role in the decision-making of users (Glerum et al., 2014;Horne et al., 2005;Hui et al., 2018). Studies (Hess et al., 2012;Mau et al., 2008;Potoglou & Kanaroglou, 2007) indicate that one-time cost reduction policies and tax subsidies are found to be a significant strategy, whereas free parking and toll reduction were found to be insignificant (Chorus et al., 2013;Hess et al., 2012;Qian & Soopramanien, 2011). Most of the studies were based on stated preference (SP) surveys due to the lack of presence of electric vehicles in the market. ...
... In case of e-2 W, Kolkata is likely to have second highest demand, followed by is relatively more interested in e-2 W when compared to the older generation (above 50 years). Literature is inconsistent when it comes to gender, where some studies also found men to be more likely users of EVs (Kim et al., 2014;Rasouli & Timmermans, 2016), whereas others (Jensen et al., 2013;Qian & Soopramanien, 2011) have reported women to be more likely users of EVs. It is however evident from the literature that the younger generation (Burghard & Dütschke, 2019;Weinert et al., 2007) are more likely users of EVs. ...
... Egbue and Long, 2012;Noppers et al., 2015), cost aspects (e.g. Qian and Soopramanien, 2011;Ziegler, 2012), environmental aspects (Hackbarth and Madlener, 2013;Ziegler, 2012), availability of different EV models (Hoen and Koetse, 2014;Chorus et al., 2013), winter driving functions (Solvoll et al., 2010), and generous policy incentives (Qian and Soopramanien, 2011;Fearnley et al., 2015). However, to the best of our knowledge, few studies have examined the satisfaction of EV owners with these attributes and aspects. ...
... Egbue and Long, 2012;Noppers et al., 2015), cost aspects (e.g. Qian and Soopramanien, 2011;Ziegler, 2012), environmental aspects (Hackbarth and Madlener, 2013;Ziegler, 2012), availability of different EV models (Hoen and Koetse, 2014;Chorus et al., 2013), winter driving functions (Solvoll et al., 2010), and generous policy incentives (Qian and Soopramanien, 2011;Fearnley et al., 2015). However, to the best of our knowledge, few studies have examined the satisfaction of EV owners with these attributes and aspects. ...
The electrification of vehicles represents a promising measure for decarbonizing the transport sector. Several countries worldwide have created incentives to promote the mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) to mitigate the environmental and energy effects caused by the increased road transport demand; however, many consumers remain skeptical about EVs. Consumer perceptions and concerns are critical for evaluating a product’s market position, identifying opportunities for improvement, and guiding strategic planning. The importance-performance analysis (IPA) represents a simple and effective technique for assessing consumer acceptance of product attributes that have been used in diverse fields. This study aimed at identifying the key EV attributes that require more attention from policymakers and manufacturers to improve consumer satisfaction. It analyzed survey data of 278 Norwegian EV owners and identified that instrumental aspects (i.e., driving range, battery recharging time, safety function, energy efficiency), winter driving quality, and environmental effects of EVs, are the most decisive factors when considering what car to buy. The results showed that EVs perform best with respect to environmental aspects, winter driving quality, and interior and exterior design. Finally, based on the IPA results, policymakers and car manufacturers should focus on the instrumental aspects, cost aspects, and winter driving quality of EVs to make EVs more attractive to consumers. Our findings provide policymakers and EV manufacturers with a deeper understanding of the needs and perceptions of EV owners with respect to EV attributes, thus helping them develop and implement better strategies for improving the attractiveness of EVs.
... Each attribute is categorized into multiple levels. For monetary attributes like price and maintenance cost of conventional vehicles, we employed a pivoting design, setting the base level based on the expected price range specified by respondents before DCE [58]. To generate more realistic choice scenarios, we set the levels of range and fast charging time based on the performance of mainstream vehicles in 2021. ...
New energy vehicles (NEVs) have emerged as a promising solution to reduce carbon emissions and address environmental concerns in the transportation sector. In order to effectively accelerate market acceptance, it is crucial to prioritize the heterogeneity of consumer preferences for NEV attributes. This study employs the multinomial logit model (MNL) and latent class model (LCM) to investigate both observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity based on stated preferences obtained from a discrete choice experiment conducted across seven cities in China. Results from the MNL model indicate that all attributes significantly influence alternative utility. In particular, there are differences in the willingness to pay (WTP) for attributes of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Analysis of MNL subgroups reveals observed heterogeneity in WTP for identical attributes among consumers from regions with different latitudes and markets with different NEV penetration rates. Furthermore, the LCM model uncovers unobserved preference heterogeneity by classifying respondents into four distinct classes and identifies specific socioeconomic variables associated with each class. The recognition of heterogeneous WTP for NEV attributes across vehicle types, regions, markets, and consumer classes provides important implications for formulating targeted policies that promote the sustainable development of the NEV industry.
... The results show that, relatively, a male consumer was less likely to buy the PHEV than a female consumer. Smaller households tended to prefer the BEV, which is the opposite result to a previous study by Lixian and Didier [45]. This may reflect the limitation of the different size of BEVs for accommodating a larger family. ...
Electric vehicles (EVs) offer a viable technological solution for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation industry, addressing pressing societal concerns regarding climate change, air pollution, and sustainable energy consumption. To effectively promote widespread adoption of EVs, it is crucial to understand consumer preferences and evaluate market dynamics. In Nepal, where proven fossil fuel reserves are absent, the government is actively working towards accelerating EV adoption, leveraging the nation’s significant hydroelectric power generation potential to fulfill EVs’ charging demands. To gain insight into consumer preferences and evaluate market dynamics regarding EVs in Nepal, this study employs a comprehensive approach. Stated preference data are collected through a meticulously designed survey, and sophisticated analytical techniques, namely, the mixed logit model and latent class model, are applied for estimation purposes. The results of this study show that potential EV consumers with small family sizes, lower monthly travel distances, heightened environmental awareness, and substantial knowledge about electric vehicles are more inclined to embrace EV technology. Notably, the study highlights that a reduction in the purchase price exerts the most significant influence on increasing consumers’ likelihood of adopting battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Market simulation results suggest that a policy mix scenario, encompassing a combination of supportive measures, proves more effective in promoting EV adoption compared to relying on single policy initiatives. Furthermore, through latent class estimation, the study identifies three distinct classes of consumers within Nepal, each exhibiting significant variations in preferences. Recognizing and addressing these variations within policy frameworks is crucial for the successful promotion and widespread acceptance of EVs in Nepal.
... Kaplan emphasizes that knowledge plays a critical role in helping customers make decisions [82]. Much earlier research showed that a person's knowledge of a green product significantly and positively affects their buying intentions towards the product [83,84]. Interestingly, previous studies have suggested that, in Vietnam, people with less knowledge are a hindrance to sustainable consumption [85]. ...
(1) Background and aims: The exploration of the intention to adopt electric vehicles has been intensively studied in developed countries where passenger cars are the most common private motorized vehicle. However, the same is not true for motorcycle-dependent countries such as Vietnam. This study aimed to advance our understanding of the determinants of motorcyclists’ intention to use electric vehicles (i.e., electric passenger cars) in settings where the motorcycle is the dominant mode. (2) Data and methods: The partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and the data from 330 motorcycle owners in Hanoi, Vietnam, were utilized to empirically test a research framework formulated based on the push–pull–mooring migration model. (3) Results: The results indicated that the push factor was formulated by safety concerns and environmental concerns while the pull factor was established by perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and financial incentive policy. Both the push factor and the pull factor significantly contributed to the adoption intention but the effect of the latter was stronger. Knowledge did not affect the intention; however, it moderated the link between the pull factor and the intention. For the respondents with a higher level of knowledge, the positive impact of the pull factor on the intention was lower (compared to those with a lower level of knowledge). (4) Conclusions: Based on the findings of the associated factors, policy implications were suggested to increase the prevalence of electric vehicles. Although the theoretical and practical contributions of this study may be significant to the literature regarding developing countries, more research is needed to validate and extend them.
In this article, we study the role of car segment and fuel type in the choice of alternative fuel vehicles and in the prediction of its market. For this purpose, we propose a joint choice cross-nested logit model to understand the demand for alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) and to study substitutional patterns between fuel types and vehicle segments with a full revealed preference approach, using only publicly available real data at disaggregate (household) level in England. Our results show that, as hypothesised, fuel type choice is not independent from car segment choice. The correlation patterns in the chosen specification reveal that individual car alternatives belonging to the same car segment are strongly correlated, while a weaker correlation exists between alternatives from different segments which share the same fuel type. The results suggest that creating awareness for cleaner fuel alternatives might be more effective if a targeted approach that considers these substitutional patterns is used. From a policy standpoint, while purchase prices play an important role and government policies have been concentrated in reducing the gap between ICE vehicles and AFVs in this dimension, our models stress the relevance of the operating cost variable, suggesting that its effect might also be crucial in the purchase decision.
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to examine the factors that influence people's intention to adopt electric vehicles (EVs). The study used an expanded theory of planned behaviour (TPB) along with the addition of perceived trust and consideration of future consequences (CFC).
Design/methodology/approach
The study is based on primary data collected from 282 respondents in Punjab through a questionnaire. The collected data were analysed using SPSS 26 and AMOS 24 to perform confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling.
Findings
The empirical analysis indicates that attitude, subjective norms and perceived trust have a significant influence on the adoption intention (AI) of EVs.
Research limitations/implications
The implications provide policymakers and marketers with better insights into marketing EVs in the trajectory of sustainable mobility. Marketers should create focussed marketing materials that highlight the environmental ease of use, lower running costs and sophisticated technology of electric automobiles. The limitations of the study provide valuable insights for future researchers.
Originality/value
This is the first study that uses CFC with the TPB model in the context of AI of EVs specifically for the Punjab region.
This paper offers a critical overview of the full spectrum of household discrete choice–based automobile demand models. Data collection methods, modeling approaches, and the relevant explanatory factors are the primary themes of this review. Furthermore, we examine research methods for assessing the demand for alternative fueled vehicles with an emphasis on stated choices analysis. Overall, this review puts into perspective theoretical assumptions and empirical results for the development of modeling systems capable of assessing market shares and benefits of policy interventions regarding both conventional and alternative fueled vehicle technologies.
Future levels of vehicle air pollution in urban areas will depend on the proportion of new car buyers who opt for less polluting vehicles, as these appear on the market. This paper examines the factors likely to influence the demand for lower emission and zero emission vehicles. Using a discrete choice experiment, suburban driver commuters choose between three types of vehicle, one conventional, one fuel-efficient and one electric. Each is characterized by varying vehicle cost and performance measures, range and refueling rates, and commuting costs and times. The latter are manipulated to determine how their use as economic instruments might influence vehicle choice. All cost and time variables are expressed as ratios of the respondent’s current situation. Parameters of a multinomial discrete choice model are used in a choice simulator to estimate the average choice probability of each type of vehicle under different scenarios reflecting possible future relative vehicle prices and performance levels as well as differential commuting costs and times based on policies aimed at encouraging the purchase of cleaner vehicles. The evidence is that the latter economic instruments will have modest effects on vehicle choice. By contrast there would be a large shift of demand to cleaner and zero-emission vehicles provided their cost and performance came within an acceptable range of conventional vehicles.
This research assesses preferences for clean-fuel vehicles (CFVs) versus the conventional vehicle using a discrete choice experiment. The results show that although consumers value environmental impact, vehicle performance characteristics are critical to choice. It is found that regulation is not sufficient to create a market for CFVs. The research identified three market segments to which CFVs should be distinctly positioned and targeted.
Preface 1. In the beginning 2. Basic notations of statistics 3. Choosing 4. Paradigms of choice data 5. Processes in setting up stated choice experiments 6. Choices in data collection 7. Nlogit for applied choice analysis: a primer 8. Handling choice data 9. Case study: model choice data 10. Getting started modelling: the workhorse - MNL 11. Getting more from your model 12. Practical issues in the application of choice models 13. Allowing for similarity of alternatives 14. Nested logit estimation 15. The mixed logit model 16. Mixed logit estimation Nlogit terms and commands References Index.
1. Choosing as a way of life Appendix A1. Choosing a residential telecommunications bundle 2. Introduction to stated preference models and methods 3. Choosing a choice model Appendix A3. Maximum likelihood estimation technique Appendix B3. Linear probability and generalised least squares models 4. Experimental design 5. Design of choice experiments Appendix A5. 6. Relaxing the IID assumption-introducing variants of the MNL model Appendix A6. Detailed characterisation of the nested logit model Appendix B6. Advanced discrete choice methods 7. Complex, non-IID multiple choice designs 8. Combining sources of preference data 9. Implementing SP choice behaviour projects 10. Marketing case studies 11. Transportation case studies 12. Environmental valuation case studies 13. Cross and external validity of SP models.
This paper examines individuals motivations when purchasing vehicles, focusing upon what factors would encourage individuals to purchase hybrid electrical vehicle (HEV) or alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV). AFVs in this paper refer to any cars run on alternatives to petrol and diesel. This research attempts to ascertain whether reductions in fuel costs, vehicle registration tax (VRT), or green house gas emissions would encourage individuals to purchase a HEV or an AFV instead of a conventional vehicle. VRT is an Irish tax that is levied on the purchase of new vehicles. One of the motivations to conduct this research was to examine a new car tax and VRT scheme introduced by the Irish government in 2008. This new policy rewards the purchase of environmentally friendly cars, with lower VRT and car tax rates. To understand individuals' perceptions of these new taxes a survey was sent to recent customers of a car company in Ireland. The survey asked respondents about their recently purchased vehicle and how important they considered vehicle attributes such as environmental performance, fuel cost, and safety, before making their car purchase. The survey also contained a number of stated preference experiments that were designed to ascertain what factors influence individuals' decisions when purchasing their new car. The results showed that respondents did not rate green house gas emissions or VRT as crucial attributes when purchasing a new vehicle. The vehicle attributes that respondents rated most highly were reliability, automobile safety, fuel costs, and the cost price. The majority of respondents agreed that HEVs and AFVs are better for the environment, cheaper to run than conventional vehicles and would be the vehicle of choice in ten years time.