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Improving air quality through urban form optimization: A review study

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Abstract

Air pollution is a significant global environmental issue. Nevertheless, the importance of rational urban planning in mitigating it is frequently disregarded. Conducting air quality optimization simulations that consider UFIs (urban form indicators) is an effective approach for air quality-friendly urban planning. Despite its potential, this technique is still in its infancy. This study aims to identify research gaps and uncertainties by summarizing the current research status of key steps in air quality optimization simulation: selecting UFIs, analyzing impact mechanisms of UFIs on air pollution, building air quality models, and proposing optimization strategies through multiple-scenario predictions. Our findings indicate a lack of consistency in selecting UFIs, and an indicator system considers their impact on air quality and urban planning standards proposed by us might be a viable option. Increases in the proportion of construction land, industrial land, and floor area ratio significantly contribute to air pollution, whereas factors such as forest land, public green space, and sky openness have a noteworthy alleviating effect. Typically, statistical modeling is preferred at the city scale while CFD simulation techniques are used at smaller scales. However, future air quality improving through UFIs optimization still lacks a multi-scale nested tool. Thus, further research is recommended to explore combined impacts of various UFIs on different air pollutants under typical scenarios, and develop intelligent, big data-driven air quality models and tools. This review might contribute to transforming air quality optimization that consider UFIs from fragmented academic research to practical application, thereby assisting in global air pollution mitigation efforts.

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Preventing high concentrations of fine particulate (PM2.5) to realize the goal of sustainable development is becoming a challenge for rapidly urbanized cities. Increasing vehicle emission due to inefficient urban form is thought to be the main cause of traffic congestion and increased PM2.5 concentrations. Previous efforts attributing PM2.5 concentrations to urban forms are yet to reach consistent conclusions on practical environmental protection strategies. In this study, we considered urban compositions and their spatial configuration to propose a new measurement—urban configuration—and document the effects of urban configuration on PM2.5 concentrations. Using 330 Chinese cities as our sample, we found that the areas of two types of urban facilities, namely, residence and industry, are positively related to PM2.5 concentrations, and the area of public service facilities is negatively related to PM2.5 concentrations. Regarding the spatial configuration of different urban compositions, we documented that residence–industry accessibility is a key factor of PM2.5 concentrations and plays a more important role than the residence–commerce accessibility. We also compared the influence of two accessibility indices (distance- and gravity-based accessibilities) and further found that the effect of reducing the residence–industry distance is more remarkable than the effect of increasing residential or industrial area on reducing PM2.5 concentrations. Our results indicate that the key to reaching sustainable urban expansion is to synchronize urban constructions with spatial configuration optimization. For Chinese cities, a 7.52% increase in residence area requires at least 1% decrease in the average residence–industry distance to eliminate the incremental effects of newly constructed residential region on PM2.5 concentrations. This study casts new light on the relationship between urban configuration and PM2.5 concentration and provides decision makers practical and realistic approaches in realizing sustainable development goals.
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PM2.5 pollution endangers human health and urban sustainable development. Land use regression (LUR) is one of the most important methods to reveal the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of PM2.5, and the introduction of characteristic variables of geographical factors and the improvement of model construction methods are important research directions for its optimization. However, the complex non-linear correlation between PM2.5 and influencing indicators is always unrecognized by the traditional regression model. The two-dimensional landscape pattern index is difficult to reflect the real information of the surface, and the research accuracy cannot meet the requirements. As such, a novel integrated three-dimensional landscape pattern index (TDLPI) and machine learning extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST) improved LUR model (LTX) are developed to estimate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the fine particle concentration in Shaanxi, China, and health risks of exposure and inhalation of PM2.5 were explored. The LTX model performed well with R² = 0.88, RMSE of 8.73 μg/m³ and MAE of 5.85 μg/m³. Our findings suggest that integrated three-dimensional landscape pattern information and XGBOOST approaches can accurately estimate annual and seasonal variations of PM2.5 pollution The Guanzhong Plain and northern Shaanxi always feature high PM2.5 values, which exhibit similar distribution trends to those of the observed PM2.5 pollution. This study demonstrated the outstanding performance of the LTX model, which outperforms most models in past researches. On the whole, LTX approach is reliable and can improve the accuracy of pollutant concentration prediction. The health risks of human exposure to fine particles are relatively high in winter. Central part is a high health risk area, while northern area is low. Our study provides a new method for atmospheric pollutants assessing, which is important for LUR model optimization, high-precision PM2.5 pollution prediction and landscape pattern planning. These results can also contribute to human health exposure risks and future epidemiological studies of air pollution.
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Urban morphology affects airflow, causing pollutant accumulation within the urban canopy. Urban planning can regulate urban form by applying such strategies as defining urban block typology and stipulating urban indices. Consequently, urban planning can contribute to a healthy environment. In this context, modeling pollutant dispersion can assist urban planning decisions. Nonetheless, there is a lack of studies investigating the combined impact of urban block typology and urban indices on air quality. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of these combined strategies on pollutant dispersion. Using computational fluid dynamics techniques, we investigated three combinations of urban indices (floor area ratio, surface coverage, and height) for three urban block typologies (single-block, detached building, and central courtyard). A total of nine urban configurations were distributed into three sets of urban index values for the three block typologies, namely “basic cases,” “1-cases,” and “2-cases.” We used the Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes equations and the κ–ω SST turbulence model for the numerical simulations. The validation was conducted using wind tunnel experimental data. To assess city breathability at pedestrian height we used five parameters: pollutant concentration, the mean age of air, net escape velocity, and pollutant mass fluxes. The results showed that both strategies (i.e., block typology and urban indices) affect urban air quality. However, the performance of a block typology depends on the urban index values. For instance, in the “2-cases,” decreasing the surface coverage by increasing the building's height improved ventilation efficiency in all typologies. Nonetheless, this strategy changed the performance ranking of the “basic cases.” In “basic cases” the single-block typology had the best performance; in the “2-cases,” the courtyard typology performed best. Although the courtyard typology improved air quality inside the patio, the outdoor areas displayed more pollutant concentration. Finally, general orientations to developing urban planning strategies were formulated.
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Air pollution is a serious global environmental problem, especially in developing countries. PM2.5 is a major air pollutant that poses critical risks in urban areas. In this study, we identified the influence of comprehensive urbanization on regional PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the largest metropolitan region in China, from 1998 to 2015. The impacts of four urbanization subsystems (Economic, Spatial, Demographic, and Social) on the spatiotemporal evolution of PM2.5 were investigated at the city level using a linear mixed effect model (LME). The annual average concentration of PM2.5 over the YRD increased during the study period, with rapid growth in the northern plains and slow growth in the mountainous south. The LME model showed good performance between the predicted and observed PM2.5, with an R² value for 10-fold cross-validation reaching 0.87 and a regression coefficient of 0.88. Urban population, GDP ratio of secondary industry, built-up area, total road area, number of students in colleges and universities, and total retail sales of consumer goods all had positive associations with PM2.5 concentration, while the proportion of tertiary industry employment, GDP ratio of primary industry, forest area, and number of hospital beds all had negative associations. Economic had the strongest effect (44%) on PM2.5 early on (1998–2003), but over time the contribution of other subsystems gradually increased. The overall contributions of urbanization type to PM2.5 in the YRD were Spatial (33.10%) > Economic (26.76%) > Demographic (16.85%) > Social (12.72%). Our results help deepen the understanding of regional air pollution in China as well as its correlation with urbanization and its subsystems.
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Accurate individual exposure assessment to particulates in complex urban environments requires maps of PM2.5 concentration at high spatiotemporal resolution. Previous empirical researches of PM2.5 mapping usually have ignored the contextual influences of associated factors on pollution variation. This study presents a new thinking about spatial prediction of PM2.5 pollution based on the pollution scene assumption. Methodologically, pollution scenes are areas exert contextual influences on the spatiotemporal variety of air pollution and can be expressed by urban microenvironment dependence and temporal nonstationarity. Taking Changsha, China as a case, a two-stage modelling strategy of geographically weighted regression kriging (GWRK) was developed to validate the assumption based on a high-density sampling campaign and a fine-scale, manually interpreted urban microenvironment map. Our results confirm the potential existence of urban air pollution scene. PM2.5 concentration varies between urban microenvironments; pollution scene based GWRK is effective for high resolution mapping of PM2.5 concentration at the hourly scale and depicts more detailed spatial variations than traditional GWR in this study. This assumption and modelling strategy provide a promising way for mapping urban air pollution at high resolution which will further benefits works on exposure assessment and risk avoidance at fine scales.
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With rapid development of urbanization, the atmospheric pollution caused by PM2.5 has attracted widespread concern. Land as the underlying surface of atmosphere, which has a significant effect on PM2.5. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal variation of PM2.5 and its relationship to land use in China during 2005–2017, then put forward suggestions for land use optimization to improve air quality. The results suggested that PM2.5 generally showed a downward trend, with obvious spatial pattern. High-pollution areas were formed in the North China Plain, the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Plain, the Sichuan Basin and the Taklimakan Desert. Furthermore, PM2.5 was significantly positive correlated with the area of cultivated land and artificial surfaces, and cultivated land fragmentation was conducive to the decline of PM2.5, while contiguous expansion of artificial surfaces would increase PM2.5. Forest and grassland had an inhibitory effect on PM2.5, and the larger area, the more complex shape, the better PM2.5 retention effect. Moreover, cultivated land and forest were the main land use types that affect PM2.5, and the effect of cultivated land was greater than that of forest. The percentage of cultivated land landscape, the shape index of forest and water bodies were the main landscape metrics that affect PM2.5, and their effect on PM2.5 decreased in turn. Therefore, strengthening the pollution control of cultivated land, promoting the land recuperation, further expanding the scale of forest and grassland, enriching vegetation types, promoting the grain for green, reasonably controlling the scale of urban development, are conducive to reduce PM2.5.
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Urban green infrastructure (UGI) is considered to be an effective tool for mitigating PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm) pollution in urban areas. However, long and continuous time series analyses of the relationships between the UGI landscape and PM2.5 pollution remain a challenge. In the present study, then we analyzed the PM2.5 variations and their relationships with the UGI landscape patterns at the urban agglomeration (the urban area of CLUA) and neighborhood scales (6 neighborhood zones with radii ranging from 500 m to 3000 m around the sampling point.). The results illustrated PM2.5 concentration increased slightly in the urban expansion areas and decreased in some old urban areas, but the changing trend was not significant. The PM2.5 concentrations were different among the four seasons in this area, and the lowest and highest concentrations occurred in winter (66.79 μg/m³) and summer (24.32 μg/m³), respectively. At the urban agglomeration scale, just a very small proportion of the PM2.5 variations in the CLUA during this study period could be attributed to the UGI landscape pattern, wind speed and relative humidity; PM2.5 concentrations were affected more strongly by wind speed and relative humidity than by UGI landscape patterns; the LSI (landscape shape index) and bridges served as the main landscape indicators affecting the PM2.5 concentrations among the UGI landscape patterns factors. At the neighborhood scale, the LPI (largest patch index), AWMSI (area-weighted mean shape index), AI (aggregation index), Core and Loop served as the main UGI landscape indicators influencing PM2.5 and had different degrees of influence on the PM2.5 concentrations; the seasonal and scale effects of UGI landscape patterns on PM2.5 concentrations at neighborhood scales were observed. Comparatively, the effects of the UGI landscape patterns on PM2.5 concentration seem more significant at the neighborhood scale than at the urban agglomeration scale. The findings of this multiscale analysis can provide new insights into understanding the relationships between UGI landscape patterns and urban air pollution at different scales, and provide a scientific reference for urban planning and air pollution control.
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Many cities across the world face the challenge of severe fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. Among the many factors that affect PM2.5 pollution, there is an increasing interest in the impacts of urban structure. However, quantifying these impacts in China has been difficult due to differences of study area and scale in existing research, as well as limited sample sizes. Here, we conducted a continental study focusing on 301 prefectural cities in mainland China to investigate the effects of urban structure, including urban size and urban compactness, on PM2.5 concentrations. Based on PM2.5 raster and land cover data, we used quantile regression and a general multilinear model to estimate the effects and relative contributions of urban size and urban compactness on urban PM2.5 pollution, with explicit consideration for pollution level, urban size and geographical location. We found: (1) nationwide, the larger and more compact that cities were, the heavier the PM2.5 pollution tended to be. Additionally, this relationship became stronger with increasing levels of pollution. (2) In general, urban size played a more important role than urban form, and there were no significant interactive effects between the two metrics on urban PM2.5 concentrations at the national scale. (3) The impacts of urban size and form varied by city size and geographical location. The impacts of urban size were only significant for small or medium-large cities but not for large cities. Among large cities, only urban form had a significantly positive effect on urban PM2.5 concentrations. The further north and west that cities were, the more dependent PM2.5 pollution was on urban form, whereas the further south and east that cities were, the greater the impact of urban size. These results provide insights into how urban design and planning can be used to alleviate air pollution.
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With the prevalence of stroke rising due to both aging societies and more people getting strokes at a younger age, a comprehensive investigation into the relationship between urban characteristics and age-specific stroke mortality for the development of a healthy built environment is necessary. Specifically, assessment of various dimensions of urban characteristics (e.g. short-term environmental change, long-term environmental conditions) is needed for healthy built environment designs and protocols. A multifactorial assessment was conducted to evaluate associations between environmental and sociodemographic characteristics with age-stroke mortality in Hong Kong. We found that short-term (and temporally varying) daily PM10, older age and being female were more strongly associated with all types of stroke deaths compared to all-cause deaths in general. Colder days, being employed and being married were more strongly associated with hemorrhagic stroke deaths in general. Long-term (and spatially varying) regional-level air pollution were more strongly associated with non-hemorrhagic stroke deaths in general. These associations varied by age. Employment (manual workers) and low education were risk factors for stroke mortality at younger ages (age <65). Greenness and open space did not have a significant association with stroke mortality. Since a significant connection was expected, this leads to questions about the health-inducing efficacy of Hong Kong's compact open spaces (natural greenery being limited to steep slopes, and extensive impervious surfaces on public open spaces). In conclusion, urban plans and designs for stroke mortality prevention should implement age-specific health care to neighborhoods with particular population segments.
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Exposure to PM2.5 and CO has been proven to be closely related to physical health. Since 2012, they have been added to the pollutant list for national monitoring in Wuhan. However, the fine-scale variation in pollution, especially at the street level, is complex and requires further exploration. In this study, the influence of urban form on the street-level air pollution distribution was comprehensively assessed according to the urban factors, high-resolution meteorological data, PM2.5 and CO concentration data collected via mobile monitoring along roads in Wuhan. Furthermore, potential urban factors, including the land-use and urban form characteristics, were obtained from geographic information system. Both linear regression and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models were developed to explore the relationship between the observed concentrations and the predictor variables. The modeling results demonstrate that the GBDT model, which captured the non-linear relationship, helps to better explain more of the variations in the pollutant concentrations than the linear model. This study provides insights into machine learning models for pollution prediction and demonstrate the important relationship between urban form and street-level pollutants. The results suggest that the urban form of the podium-level porosity can be set higher than 0.7 to promote the ventilation of street-level PM2.5 and CO, building density can be less than 0.35, and the standard deviation of height can be set to ∼10 m in central Wuhan to mitigate street-level PM2.5. Thus, quantitatively demonstrating the impact of urban form on the PM2.5 and CO concentrations can help decision-makers with urban planning and management.
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To improve the atmospheric environment by optimizing urban morphology, this study develops a random forest (RF) model to investigate the influence of urban morphology on PM2.5 variations via the relative importance of urban morphology and the nonlinear response relationship between urban morphology and PM2.5. Two indices—reduction range (C↓) and rate (C˅) of PM2.5 concentrations—are defined to evaluate the temporal variations of PM2.5. Results show that RF models are more accurate and perform better than multiple linear regression models, with R² ranging from 0.861 to 0.936. Five out of nine urban morphological indicators have the most significant contribution to PM2.5 reduction. For each indicator, the nonlinear response relationship shows similar trends in general, despite of the difference at the higher pollution level. Building evenness index and water body area ratio have a similar response such that C↓ and C˅ sharply increase and tend to be stable when they reach at 0.05 and 8 %, respectively. With the increase in vegetated area ratio, the change of C↓ presents an inverted V-shape trend with the turning point of about 20 %; however, the change of C˅ greatly differs from the pollution level. A higher density of the low-rising buildings with one to three floors will lead to a small reduction rate but a greater reduction range of PM2.5. Floor area ratio values generally show a negative and nonlinear influence on C↓ and C˅. This study provides useful implications for planners and managers for PM2.5 reduction through neighborhood morphology optimization.
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It is likely that exposure surrogates from monitoring stations with various limitations are not sufficient for epidemiological studies covering large areas. Moreover, the spatiotemporal resolution of air pollution modelling approaches must be improved in order to achieve more accurate estimates. If not, the exposure assessments will not be applicable in future health risk assessments. To deal with this challenge, this study featured Land-Use Regression (LUR) models that use machine learning to assess the spatial-temporal variability of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2). Daily average NO 2 data was collected from 70 fixed air quality monitoring stations, belonging to the Taiwanese EPA, on the main island of Taiwan. Around 0.41 million observations from 2000 to 2016 were used for the analysis. Several datasets were employed to determine spatial predictor variables, including the EPA environmental resources dataset, the meteorological dataset, the land-use inventory, the landmark dataset, the digital road network map, the digital terrain model, MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index database, and the power plant distribution dataset. Regarding analyses, conventional LUR and Hybrid Kriging-LUR were performed first to identify important predictor variables. A Deep Neural Network, Random Forest, and XGBoost algorithms were then used to fit the prediction model based on the variables selected by the LUR models. Lastly, data splitting, 10-fold cross validation, external data verification, and seasonal-based and county-based validation methods were applied to verify the robustness of the developed models. The results demonstrated that the proposed conventional LUR and Hybrid Kriging-LUR models captured 65% and 78%, respectively, of NO 2 variation. When the XGBoost algorithm was further incorporated in LUR and hybrid-LUR, the explanatory power increased to 84% and 91%, respectively. The Hybrid Kriging-LUR with XGBoost algorithm outperformed all other integrated methods. This study demonstrates the value of combining Hybrid Kriging-LUR model and an XGBoost algorithm to estimate the spatial-temporal variability of NO 2 exposure. For practical application, the associations of specific land-use/land cover types selected in the final model can be applied in land-use management and in planning emission reduction strategies.
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The project planning activities of urban air quality and breathability have increasingly become the noticed issues around the world in recent times. In this study, the incorporation of half-open spaces into the ground corners of high-rise buildings is accomplished by slightly modifying the building morphology as a feasible solution. A unified procedure is proposed via a combined framework of parametric CFD study and multivariable regression analysis to optimize the half-open space design for improving ventilation performance and air quality. The influences of four design parameters on wind flow characteristics are investigated, including (i) the building height, (ii) the width of street canyon, (iii) the height of half-open space, and (iv) the width of half-open space. Using the results from this combined framework, CFD simulations are then extended to inspect the effectiveness of merging optimized half-open space layouts into high-rise buildings as the deterministic analysis in a realistic case study. Both CFD simulations are validated with the wind tunnel data for a generic urban array and on-site measurements for a realistic case study. The predictions are discussed to evaluate the outcomes of urban breathability and air pollutant dispersion by the indices of air change per hour (ACH) and purging flow rate (PFR). The incorporation of optimized half-open spaces into constructions can greatly improve urban ventilation and air pollutant dispersion in the pedestrian pathway layer. To complete the combined framework for a realistic high-rise urban area, the optimized half-open space design can increase ACH* and PFR by 75% and 57%, respectively, in the pedestrian pathway layer, as compared to the case of original half-open space design. This strategy relies on the database formulated from the CFD results of varied building morphologies in the generic urban array to realize the optimized design in a more effective and time-saving manner when applying to realistic cases.
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Previous findings have indicated better performance attained by modified urban morphologies for wind energy utilization only in single and pair buildings, or medium-dense low-rise building arrays. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to address the research gaps to complete a fundamental understanding of the influences of urban morphology in compact high-rise urban areas on enhancing urban wind energy harvest for sustainable urban development. A comprehensive parametric study is conducted using the computational fluid dynamics tool to analyze the impacts of urban morphologies on the wind energy potential for a 6 × 6 array of generic high-rise buildings, including (i) urban density altered from compact to sparse urban layouts, (ii) building corner shapes of sharp and rounded corners, (iii) urban layouts of in-line and staggered patterns, and (iv) wind directions of 0° and 45°. This investigation implements the three-dimensional steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the Reynolds stress model to explore the distributions of wind speed, power density, and turbulence intensity over the building array. The results indicate that decreasing urban plan area density reduces the unacceptable turbulence areas with relatively higher wind power density on the roof. Besides, round corners can produce elevated power densities up to 201% greater than sharp corners beside the building. Even under the oblique wind direction of 45°, the rounded corner still shows better wind energy potentials than the sharp corner. The in-line urban layout demonstrates more significant areas with higher power densities and low turbulence intensities than the staggered urban layout.
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Urban air quality has been a long-standing problem in most cities worldwide. Many strategies have been proposed to solve it, including green infrastructures such as green roofs (GRs) and green walls (GWs) that provide multiple environmental benefits. Many studies have focused on GRs and GWs strategies to mitigate urban air pollution. However, to the best of authors’ knowledge, these studies have not dealt with different urban morphologies, specifically the impact of building heights and coverage ratios of GRs and GWs on mitigating air pollution. Therefore, the potential of GRs and GWs to alleviate air pollution has not been fully exploited. This paper aims to investigate different GRs and GWs layouts and evaluate their efficacy for capturing particulate matter (PM2.5) in an urban neighbourhood of Santiago, Chile. We use ENVI-met model to simulate a metropolitan area with buildings, vegetation, paved surfaces, and traffic emissions to estimate air pollution abatement for varying building heights and coverage ratios of GRs and GWs. We simulate these layouts and coverage for a downtown area of Santiago, and results were compared with the base case scenario. Results showed that the air quality improvement by GRs and GWs depends on building height, surrounding urban infrastructure, vegetation cover and proximity to the pollutant source. Specifically, results showed that 50%–75% of GRs coverage on low-rise buildings could improve air quality at the pedestrian/commuter level. However, just a 25% coverage of GWs yields the highest PM2.5 capture. We conclude that to decrease PM2.5 concentrations, priority should be given to instal GRs in buildings lower than 10 m in height. For GWs, the PM2.5 abatement is favorable in all cases. ENVI-met results also show that the combined use of GRs and GWs could reduce PM2.5 up to 7.3% in Santiago compared to the base case scenario.
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The urban morphology can significantly change the urban microclimate, which in turn affects the diffusion of air pollutants. Urban planning is the most important means of shaping urban morphology. Therefore, this study takes Wuhan as an example and uses the method of WRF/CMAQ coupled UCM model to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of PM2.5 in the Wuhan metropolitan area in winter 2015. The six most important urban morphological indicators in urban planning: the floor area ratio and building height, building density and building width, vegetation coverage ratio, and urban fraction, are selected and classified into three groups. Studying their impact on the spatial and temporal distribution of PM2.5 concentration provides support for urban planners to improve air quality. The results show that the maximum value of PM2.5 concentration in Wuhan urban area occurs in the morning rush hour, and PM2.5 is distributed concentrically in the downtown of the city (within the second ring highway) according to the highways around the city. The PM2.5 concentration in the downtown area with the most extensive urban morphological index is the highest, and it decreases with increasing distance from the downtown. Among the six indicators, building density and urban fraction have the most significant impact on PM2.5 concentration because they have the greatest impact on the wind speed at 10 m. The height of the planetary boundary layer is the key factors affect the vertical and horizontal diffusion of air pollutants. Except for the vegetation coverage ratio, the increase of other urban morphological indicators will lead to a decrease of PM2.5 concentration in Wuhan urban area at night. During the daytime, increasing the floor area ratio and building height will cause an increasing of PM2.5 concentration, but other indicators have the opposite effects.
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Particulate matter with an aerodynamic equivalent dimeter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are major air pollutants, with coupled and complex relationships. The control of both PM2.5 and O3 pollution requires the identification of their common influencing factors, which has rarely been attempted. In this study, land use regression (LUR) models based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were developed to estimate PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in China’s Pearl River Delta region during 2019. The common factors in the tradeoffs between the two air pollutants and their synergistic effects were analyzed. The model inputs included spatial coordinates, remote sensing observations, meteorological conditions, population density, road density, land cover, and landscape metrics. The LUR models performed well, capturing 54–89% and 42–83% of the variations in annual and seasonal PM2.5 and O3 concentrations, respectively, as shown by the 10-fold cross validation. The overlap of variables between the PM2.5 and O3 models indicated that longitude, aerosol optical depth, O3 column number density, tropospheric NO2 column number density, relative humidity, sunshine duration, population density, the percentage cover of forest, grass, impervious surfaces, and bare land, and perimeter-area fractal dimension had opposing effects on PM2.5 and O3. The tropospheric formaldehyde column number density, wind speed, road density, and area-weighted mean fractal dimension index had complementary effects on PM2.5 and O3 concentrations. This study has improved our understanding of the tradeoff and synergistic factors involved in PM2.5 and O3 pollution, and the results can be used to develop joint control policies for both pollutants.
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Numerous statistical models have established the relationship between ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5, with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm) and satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) along with other meteorological/land-related covariates. However, all the models assumed that all covariates affect the PM2.5 concentration at the same scale, and none could provide a posterior uncertainty analysis at each regression point. Therefore, a multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR) model was proposed by specifying a unique bandwidth for each covariate. However, the lack of a method for predicting values at unsampled points in the MGTWR model greatly restricts its corresponding application. Thus, this study developed a method for inferring unsampled points and used the posterior uncertainty assessment value to improve the model accuracy. With the aid of the high-resolution satellite multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) AOD product, daily PM2.5 concentrations with a 1 km x 1 km resolution were generated over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region between 2013 and 2019. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the fitted MGTWR results vary from 0.90 to 0.94 and from 10.66 to 25.11 μg/m3, respectively. The sample-based and site-based cross-validation R² and RMSE vary from 0.81 to 0.89 and from 14.40 to 34.43 μg/m3 respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed inference method at unsampled points. With the uncertainty constraint, the sample-based and site-based validated MGTWR R² results for all years are further improved by approximately 0.02-0.04, demonstrating the effectiveness of the posterior uncertainty assessment constraint method. These results suggest that the inference method proposed in this study is promising to overcome the defects of the MGTWR model in inferring the prediction values at unsampled points and could consequently enhance the wide applications of MGTWR modeling.