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Measuring Minor Party Impact: The Australian Greens in a Changing Party System

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In 2017, the Australian Greens celebrated its 25th anniversary as a national political organisation. Nine Greens senators and a single Greens member of the House of Representatives now sit within the federal parliament. But what impact does the party have on Australian politics? This thesis investigates the impact of the Greens in Australian politics by assessing the party’s influence over the party system. The dominant perspective in the literature characterises the Australian party system as a relatively stable two- or two-and-a-half-party system. As such, either the common characterisations of the party system are inaccurate, or the Greens possess little capacity to shape the competitive environment in which they operate. Employing novel techniques and approaches rarely used in Australian political science, this thesis investigates party competition, ideological polarisation, electoral volatility, government formation, voting behaviour, and the contest for legislative outcomes. The evidence reveals general change in what is a multidimensional Australian party system. Two-partism is giving way to a contingent multipartism; while the contest for government remains marked by two-partism, multiparty dynamics are consolidating in the electoral arena and the Senate. In this process of change, however, the Greens are a party of meaningful but nonetheless minimal impact, more constrained and shaped by their competitive environment than they are capable of bringing about its transformation. This thesis therefore furthers our understanding of the Australian party system, party competition, minor parties and, especially, the role and development of the Australian Greens.
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... The Greens, however, are ecologically centred, not focused. The party has increasingly sought to occupy left-redistributive policy space partly vacated by Labor, connecting issues of inequality, housing, workers' rights and public services with its environmental and climate objectives (Holloway et al. 2019). Bandt and Greens candidates pitched much of their redistributive agenda as a remedy for the increasing costs of living-a key issue as the election campaign wore on. ...
... The Greens, however, are ecologically centred, not focused. The party has increasingly sought to occupy left-redistributive policy space partly vacated by Labor, connecting issues of inequality, housing, workers' rights and public services with its environmental and climate objectives (Holloway et al. 2019). Bandt and Greens candidates pitched much of their redistributive agenda as a remedy for the increasing costs of living-a key issue as the election campaign wore on. ...
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More than a year before the 2022 election, the Australian Greens made their basic electoral strategy clear. In a press release, leader Adam Bandt outlined the party’s targets: to win nine House of Representatives seats and expand its Senate representation to 12 through gains in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia (Zhou and Remeikis 2021). Beyond reelecting Bandt in Melbourne, the Greens’ targets in the lower house spanned Liberal and Labor seats in east coast capitals and the ‘rural’ NSW seat of Richmond. Changes in 2016 to the Senate electoral system that removed group voting tickets, as well as a consolidating voter base, made gains in the Senate contest more likely. For the House, there were hopes that (and active campaigns for) several of the Greens’ target divisions could be in play.
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