Jan Havenga

Stellenbosch University | SUN · Department of Logistics

Crafting systemic engineering fundamentals into a structured design model that includes demand definition, systemic design, and efficient operations enables the railway design process to achieve viable solutions. The design model incorporates types of efficiencies that are fundamental to successfully operating new railway systems. A relationship be...

The dearth of information on freight flows in emerging economies hampers data-driven policy development and infrastructure investments in support of addressing the multifaceted challenges of sustainable development and social upliftment. In this chapter, the outputs of disaggregated national freight demand models (FDMs) are applied to identify oppo...

Inefficient transport systems constrain national growth potential and international competitiveness, thereby hampering logistics’ role in supporting national socioeconomic growth ideals. Yet, the performance of the logistics systems is not tracked regularly from a macroeconomic point of view anywhere in the world. Two main reasons for this are the...

Abstract: Macro-level logistics cost and flow modelling have highlighted intermodal solutions as a means of optimising key South African (SA) freight corridors. This paper explores the critical success factors for translating the macro opportunity to a sustainable intermodal solution for the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector. The study ident...

The South African maritime industry suffers from a number of risks, with the most prominent source of risk stemming from congestion within port terminals. The Port of Cape Town is one of South Africa’s main ports. Two of the risks faced by the Cape Town Container Terminal (CTCT) and associated with port congestion are adverse weather and system cha...

The objective of this research is to aid macrologistics decision-making through the development and interpretation of national freight flow and logistics cost measurements, i.e. macrologistics instrumentation. This provides the systemic view of the national freight logistics landscape that is required to address logistics challenges within the cont...

South Africa is currently one of the “dirtiest” economies in the world in terms of carbon emissions. The South African economy is heavily dependent on energy-intensive industries, such as mining and primary minerals beneficiation, which in turn rely on fossil fuels as a source of energy. Sustainability is still a relatively new concept in South Afr...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of South Africa’s national freight demand model and related logistics cost models, and to illustrate the application of the modelling outputs to inform macrologistics policy. Design/methodology/approach Spatially and sectorally disaggregated supply and demand data are developed using th...

Purpose: To develop and apply a methodology to calculate the heavy goods vehicle fleet required to meet South Africa’s projected road freight transport demand within the context of total surface freight transport demand. Methodology: Total freight flows are projected through the gravity modelling of a geographically disaggregated input–output mode...

Background: The components of national freight logistics costs are still optimised in isolation, instead of systemic optimisation between logistics and other supply chain elements. The risk is the tragedy of the commons effect, where a positive return for economic activities in isolation could lead to a negative collective result in the long-term....

Background: On a national level, South Africa’s freight logistics industry is inefficient. The country ranks 36th out of 40 countries in terms of transport productivity (tonne kilometres as a ratio of gross domestic product, or GDP); the ratio of freight logistics costs to GDP measured 11.1% in 2013, compared to that of developed regions which meas...

South Africa's port system has undergone significant changes in the last three decades, from being a state department, to a division of a state-owned company, to separating the landlord and operations functions into distinct entities. Both entities however remain divisions of the state-owned company Transnet, which is also the sole owner and operat...

The freight logistics discipline can make an important contribution to the sustainability debate through the application of its expertise in systemic measurement and trade-off management to the macrologistics realm. The systemic measurement of a country’s freight system allows for the development of decision-making scenarios to, inter alia, inform...

Background: South Africa has a disproportionately high freight transport demand owing to industrial development far from ports, low domestic beneficiation and improper modal use. Historical freight transport policy supported primary economic development, failing to preempt the changing economic structure and the resulting freight transport needs, r...

The challenges facing the logistics industry in a fossil fuel-challenged global economy are highlighted by transportation's rising contribution to logistics costs, as evidenced in the USA's and South Africa's logistics costs time series, the two longest-running such series available globally. The anticipated persistence of rising, volatile oil pric...

Background: Logistics costs are most commonly measured on a national level. An understanding of the provincial logistics landscape can add significant value both to provincial and national policy interventions; such measurements are however scarce. South Africa’s national freight logistics survey points to significant challenges in the structure of...

Purpose – South Africa's logistics cost measurement was expanded to include externality costs, and scenarios based on the key exogenous risks were developed to inform mitigation strategies. This paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The research approach is quantitative, based on a gravity-orientated freight flow model,...

During the 20th century, freight transport in South Africa was employed to attain politicoeconomic ideals, resulting in the overprotection of rail and overregulation of road transport. Increasing industry pressure, combined with the international deregulation trend, led to deregulation in 1988. Myopia resulted in a rail investment hiatus and expone...

A country’s competitiveness can be severely hampered by an uncompetitive freight logistics system. During the first decade of the 21st century, two in-depth models were developed for South Africa which provide a framework for measuring and improving the country’s freight logistics system – the cost of logistics survey and the freight demand model....

Container forecasting typically focuses on its intermodal nature, container sizes and port container terminals. This leads to a commodity-blind approach to container forecasting, where the twenty-foot-equivalent is the forecasting output. The standardized unit is also increasing into many non-standard forms, indicated by the three main container ma...

The Cross-Border Road Transport Agency (CBRTA) in South Africa aims to encourage and facilitate trade between South Africa and its neighbouring countries. The CBRTA sponsored a study by Stellenbosch University (SU) to determine the logistics cost impact of cross-border delays between South Africa and its major neighbouring trading partners, and pri...

The North American and South African logistics cost calculation-time series are the two longest-running statistical series available worldwide. These calculations indicate that transportation’s contribution to logistics costs is rising, as the key cost driver (oil price) is increasing exponentially. This is exacerbated by volatile oil prices and th...

This article presents the results of a comprehensive disaggregated commodity flow model for South Africa. The wealth of data available enables a segmented analysis of future freight transportation demand in order to assist with the prioritisation of transportation investments, the development of transport policy and the growth of the logistics serv...

A benchmark of South Africa's freight rail system confirms that South Africa's export lines compare favourably globally, but that the general freight sector of the business lags in all key indicators, and there is no clear comparison as far as a rail reform agenda is concerned. Neither a path of deregulation, rationalisation, investment and efficie...

An integrated alternative to road only or rail only transport does not exist in South Africa for domestic freight. This is in spite of the fact that national freight logistics costs are high, road infrastructure is challenged and concern for the environmental impact of road transport is increasing. These factors have renewed interest in intermodal...

A number of attempts were made during the 20th century to develop national freight flow information for South Africa. This paper discusses these contributions and attempts to identify the major reasons why the research did not give rise to long-term strategic infrastructure planning. It is important to learn these lessons to avoid making the same m...

The purpose of this study is to quantify the marginal external costs associated with freight transport in South Africa. Six cost elements are included as externality cost items, namely, costs related to accidents, emissions, roadway land availability, policing, noise and congestion. Inputs in the calculations were a gravity-oriented freight flow mo...

This paper investigates the suitable location for an intermodal inland container terminal (IICT) in the city of Cape Town. A container market segmentation approach is used to project growth for container volumes over a 30-year period for all origin and destination pairings on a geographical district level in an identified catchment area. The segmen...

This paper highlights the first attempt by researchers at Stellenbosch University to model freight flows between and for 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model will be informed by and linked to the South African surface Freight Demand Model (FDM) given these dimensions. By analysing and collating available datasets and developing a fre...

South Africa suffered from a historical lack of freight-flow information that was detrimental to infrastructure planning, optimal network development and market structuring. This paper proposes a methodology that can fill this gap, be repeated annually and is, by its nature, not prone to the errors of market surveys. The methodology develops a comp...

1S outh Africa's annual State of Logistics survey indicates that the majority of dense, long-distance surface freight is transported by road, placing severe constraints on the country's freight logistics infrastructure and posing a significant exogenous risk to the growth aspirations of the country. This risk is attributable to the excessive demand...

Due to the rapid deregulation of freight transport in South Africa two decades ago, and low historical investment in rail (with resultant poor service delivery), an integrated alternative to road and rail competition was never developed. High national freight logistics costs, significant road infrastructure challenges and environmental impact conce...

Despite two decades of visionary policies, problems within South Africa’s freight logistics system remain. Logistics costs are high, the current road and rail solutions will be unable to meet long-term demand for freight transport sustainably, and rural economies still do not have efficient access to the corridor transport network. This article pos...

The most common approach used internationally for forecasting international trade containers is models based on the correlation between container trade and economic growth. While the strong historical correlation is indisputable, this paper argues that there will be saturation in the propensity to containerise as all the suitable volumes of the und...

This paper makes a case for macroeconomic logistics measurement and presents the results of the 2009 logistics cost model for South Africa. The major portion of logistics costs are attributable to road transport, of which the biggest cost driver is fuel, which, in turn, is determined by volatile oil prices and the exchange rate of the country's mon...

In South Africa, logistics optimisation is largely managed from a microeconomic perspective. This paper makes the case for macroeconomic logistics measurement, presents the results of the country's national logistics cost model and proposes the first key macroeconomic logistics indicators for South Africa. The research shows that South Africa's log...

The main response to sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) challenges has been foreign aid. Yet, despite the large amounts received, the challenges remain. There is an opportunity to consider a different model with less focus on aid and more on investment. In the transport sector specifically, investment decisions should be informed by a long-term optimal bal...

The Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (AsgiSA) identified South Africa's freight logistics challenges as among the key binding constraints on the country's growth aspirations. The research presented here points to the structural imbalance between road and rail freight transport as one of the key contributors to this state of...

The issues surrounding vertical separation, privatisation and economic regulation have recently resurfaced in South Africa around discussions to create a rail economic regulator (RER) (Radebe, 2008). In particular, a framework was proposed that has an overarching objective of more efficient and effective rail services. To achieve this, rail economi...

While the third State of Logistics survey in 2006 focused on the implementation of logistics strategies in a developing economy, the theme for this year’s study is logistics for regional growth and development. South Africa has a leading role to play in the development of the southern African region and is well positioned to take up this challenge....

South Africa currently experiences the double jeopardy problem of catching up to global economic competitiveness whilst at the same time feeling the pressures of sustainability management spearheaded by a global agenda. Global sustainability is defined as growth that is shared without depleting natural resources or damaging the environment. Academi...

It is illustrated that logistics cost for South Africa can be measured in an extensive model and cost drivers are identified. The model is also backdated for six years to enable the analysis of trends. Understanding the drivers and trends enable the development of specific analysis areas (i.e. effect of movement of freight from road to rail, indust...

The purpose of this research was to measure the cost of Logistics in South Africa, determine the major cost drivers and assist both the country to manage those drivers and logisticians to manage logistics in this context. The measurement is on an industry and national level and can therefore relate logistics input with GDP as well as with industry-...

Logistics was identified by the South African government in the Accelerated and Shared-Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA) as one of the six potential hurdles that may limit future growth in the country. Strategies were put in place to address this potential treat. The National Freight Logistics Strategy and the National Land Transport Strat...

This survey highlights that South Africa's core structural problems are far worse than expected: Logistics cost represents a considerable percentage of the GDP (14.7% or R180bn). We spend more on transport than generally expected and much more than we should; The "normal" macro economic model is to transport long-distance corridor freight on rail,...

In this study, the focus is on the challenges of implementing logistics strategies in the macro-economic, industry and small business development contexts. The data contained in this survey represents the 2005 reporting year. The aim of the survey continues to be the provision of a comprehensive overview of the state of logistics in South Africa, i...

Copyright: 2009 SAPICS The state of logistics survey makes it possible to analyse and show trends over the past five years. This relates to quantitative and qualitative logistics issues that were not possible when this survey started in 2004. The paper will show that the continued measurement of logistics performance in SA is of critical importance...