I. I. Mokhov

Russian Academy of Sciences | RAS

Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global surface temperature on secular temporal horizons are obtained with the aid of autoregressive models from simulatio...

We have obtained quantitative estimates of the spatial and seasonal features of the characteristics of anticyclones in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere and their changes in recent decades using ERA5 reanalysis data (1979-2021). A high correlation between the interannual variations of the mean seasonal occurence of anticyclones and near-sur...

An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X23070085

The results of Russian studies of climate and its changes (published in 2019–2022) are presented based on a review prepared for the National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences for the XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (Berlin, Germany, July 11–20, 2023).

Для выделения режимов крупномасштабной атмосферной циркуляции (погодных режимов) ис-пользуются различные методы кластерного анализа. В статье приведено сравнение четырех, наибо-лее часто используемых методов-k-means (KM), иерархической кластеризации Уорда (HW), моде-ли Гауссовой смеси (GM) и самоорганизующихся карт Кохонена (SOM) на примере выделен...

Various methods of cluster analysis are used for identifying large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes (weather regimes (WRs)). In this paper we compare the four most commonly used clustering methods: k-means (KM), Ward's hierarchical clustering (HW), Gaussian mixture model (GM), and self-organizing maps (SOMs) to analyze WRs in the Euro-Atlantic...

We quantified the seasonal/regional patterns and changes in cyclone activity in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere and determined the contribution of extratropical cyclones to the formation of corresponding patterns and precipitation changes. It is ascertained that the contribution of extratropical cyclones to the total amount of precipitati...

The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-20...

The study addresses the question, if observed changes in terms of Arctic-midlatitude linkages during winter are driven by Arctic Sea ice decline alone or if the increase of global sea surface temperatures plays an additional role. We compare atmosphere-only model experiments with ECHAM6 to ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. The model sensitivity experime...

We have obtained quantitative estimates of seasonal and regional features and changes in cyclone activity in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere and determined the contribution of extratropical cyclones to the formation of corresponding features and changes in the surface wind using ERA5 reanalysis data for recent decades (1979-2021). Accordi...

Contributions of the insolation variations together with different natural and anthropogenic factors to the trends of the surface air temperatures at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres on various temporal horizons are estimated from climate data since the nineteenth century with the use of empirical autoregressive models....

Results of the analysis of wildfires in Russian regions using satellite data for 2000-2021 are presented. The results indicate a predominant increase in the number of intense fires in Russia, which has been especially noticeable in recent years. Using reanalysis data, a significant correlation between wildfires in Russia and atmospheric blocking ha...

We obtained quantitative estimates of seasonal and regional features and changes in cyclone activity in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere and determined the contribution of extratropical cyclones to the formation of corresponding features and changes in the surface wind, using ERA5 reanalysis data for recent decades (1979–2021). According t...

A comparative analysis of mutual changes in temperature and aerosol content in the atmosphere was carried out by the data of Antarctic ice cores obtained at the Russian Vostok station and within the framework of the international EPICA project for the past 800,000 years. According to the results of cross-wavelet analysis for the last hundreds of th...

Ensemble simulations (taking into account to the uncertainty of paleoclimate reconstructions) with a model of ice sheet dynamics for the last glacial cycle (128 kyr) are carried out. In general, the model realistically reproduces the spatial structure of the ice sheets and the heights of their domes in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as the associ...

Ensemble simulations (taking into account uncertainty of paleoclimate reconstructions) with a models for ice sheets dynamics for the last glacial cycle (last 128 kyr) are carried out. The model realistically reproduces spatial structure of major ice sheets and heights of their domes in the Northern hemisphere as well as the associated changes in gl...

The analysis of changes in the snow cover extent S in Eurasia was performed using the results of simulations with the ensemble of global climate models of the international project CMIP6 under the scenario of anthropogenic impacts SSP2-4.5 for the 21st century. Features of S variability in relation to changes in surface air temperature T in differe...

Based on the reanalysis data quantitative estimates of the kinetic energy of the high-altitude jet streams of the Northern Hemisphere (EK JS NH) and its changes in the annual cycle and interannual variability for the period 1980–2021 were obtained under different conditions for the minimum wind speed Vm in the JS area. Adequate estimates are made f...

A general exact weak solution to the non-linear equation of the conservation of the absolute vorticity in a thin layer of an incompressible medium on a rotating sphere is proposed. It takes into account the helicity of the point vortices and the non-uniformity of the depth of the layer. This is used to develop a model of the observed interactions o...

Regional features of global climate changes are significantly related to the regimes of atmospheric centers of action (ACA) and their variability. The analysis of the expected ACA changes in the Northern Hemisphere was carried out using simulations with ensembles of modern climate models of the international projects CMIP5 and CMIP6 under the scena...

New general exact weak solution to the nonlinear absolute vorticity conservation equation for a thin layer of incompressible medium on a rotating sphere is proposed. It takes into account helicity of the point vortices and non-uniformity of the layer depth. A model of the observed spiral atmospheric vortices interactions is proposed. The two point...

The analysis of winter atmospheric blockings in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) under climate changes in 1980–2018 was carried out. The results of the analysis indicate a significant increase in the total duration of winter atmospheric blockings τ in the NH in recent decades. The noted trend was revealed against the background of a rapid increase in t...

Based on the observational data, statistical estimates of the relationship between different characteristics of atmospheric tornadoes were received. Statistically significant estimates of the power-law relationship of the tornado path length and path width were obtained. Specific features are noted for different ranges of path length and path width...

Model estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural fluxes of greenhouse gases from the territories of different countries to global climate change in the 21st century under different scenarios of anthropogenic forcing were obtained. Quantitative estimates were made for the effect of changes in regional climatic conditions on the inten...

The forest fires characteristics in Siberia detected by satellite data (MODIS instruments on Aqua and Terra platforms) for the period 2000-2019 are analyzed. Regional statistical data and distribution functions of wildfire characteristics are presented. Differences in spatio-temporal changes of forest fires of various intensity were revealed. An an...

Siberian wildfires and related regional anomalies of atmospheric impurities during the period of 2000-2019 are analyzed. The long-range transport of biomass burning products from Siberian wildfires into the Arctic atmosphere during the period of 2000-2019 is estimated. An analysis of the characteristics of forest fires over the past two decades rev...

The characteristic features and mechanisms of the formation of a deep ozone mini-hole (OMH) in winter 2015/2016 over Siberia were carried out using AIRS and CALIOP satellite data. The depletion in the total column ozone was caused mainly by a strong decrease in ozone mixing ratio in the lower stratosphere, reaching 50% near the pressure level of 70...

Contributions of various natural and anthropogenic factors to trends of surface air temperatures at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres on various temporal horizons are estimated from climate data since the 19th century in empirical autoregressive models. Along with anthropogenic forcing, we assess the impact of several nat...

The study of the long-range transport of biomass burning products from Siberian wildfires into the Arctic atmosphere during the period of 2000-2019 is presented. An analysis of the characteristics of forest fires over the past 20 years revealed an increase in radiation power of an average Siberian wildfire, which is characterized by a statistically...

The conference "Turbulence, Atmosphere and Climate Dynamics" dedicated to the memory of the Alexander M. Obukhov was held in Moscow from November 10 to 12, 2020. The topics of the conference covered the following scientific areas: turbulence; geophysical hydrodynamics; atmospheric and climate system dynamics; physics and composition of the atmosphe...

Model estimates of changes in natural methane emissions into the atmosphere were obtained for the regions of Western Siberia, including the estimates of wetland ecosystems and decomposition of relict methane hydrates contributions to these changes in the high latitude cryolithozone. Regional model estimates of methane fluxes into the atmosphere wer...

To estimate the climatic effects of anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 emission scenarios we performed numerical experiments using IAP RAS CM global climate model. Emissions pathways of 5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) regions were used as evaluated scenarios. It is shown that the anthropogenic contribution of CO 2 to global surface temperatu...

Changes in snow cover and sea ice extents associated with temperature changes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1979-2020 are analysed using monthly-mean satellite and reanalysis data. Quantitative estimates of the relationship between the Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface air temperature were obtained. O...

Quantitative estimates of changes in wind energy resources in the Arctic were obtained using the RCA4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for 2006-2099. The wind power density proportional to cubic wind speed was analyzed. The procedure for the model near-surface wind speed bias correction using ERA5 data as...

Changes in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric severe convective events, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, hailstorm, squall, and tornado, in the Russian regions during the warm season are analyzed using different independent sources of information. Based on observations at Russian weather stations in 1966–2020, the frequency of thunde...

Changes in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric severe convective events, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, hailstorm, squall, and tornado, in the Russian regions during the warm season are analyzed using different independent sources of information. Based on observations at Russian weather stations in 1966-2020, the frequency of thunde...

The analysis is carried out for changes in runoff of the Amur and Selenga rivers in the 21st century according to the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) climate model ensemble simulations using the Bayesian approach versus stream gage data on annual runoff and GPCP-2.3 dataset on annual precipitation over catchments on different...

The relationship between intraannual and interannual variations in the snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere, including Eurasia and North America and changes in surface air temperature was quantitatively estimated using satellite and reanalysis data for the period of 1979-2020. The estimates of the parameters of the snow cover extent sensiti...

Seasonal anomalies of surface air temperature were analyzed for the North Eurasian regions in mid-latitudes using long-term data from the end of the 19th century with an assessment of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. In particular, temperature anomalies in the spring–summer months for the European (ER) and Asian (AR) Russian regions for...

Frequency of warm and cold winters in the North Eurasian regions is analyzed from long-term data, depending on El Nino phenomena of different types. Frequencies of extremely warm and extremely cold winters for North Eurasian regions in different phases of El Ni\~no phenomena are compared. Potential predictability of anomalous winters in the El Ni\~...

How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface air temperature at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres on various time intervals? Suc...

The contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century has been assessed. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can affect the impact indica...

Using satellite data and reanalysis data, the characteristics and mechanisms of the formation of an ozone “mini-hole” in the atmosphere over Siberia in the winter of 2015–2016 have been investigated. The relationship between the regional negative anomaly of the total ozone content (TOC), reaching –140 Dobson units, with atmospheric blocking was est...

Analysis of satellite and reanalysis data indicates a relationship between pyrogenic NO2 emissions and atmospheric blocking events. According to the estimates obtained for the period of 2001–2019, total NO2 emissions into the atmosphere during wildfires in Russia increase by 0.7 Mt with an increase in the integral blocking index by 10%. Against the...

Анализ спутниковых данных и данных реанализа свидетельствует о связи пирогенных эмиссий NO2 с атмосферными блокированиями. Согласно полученным оценкам для периода 2001-2019 гг. при увеличении интегрального индекса блокирования на 10% суммарные выбросы NO2 в атмосферу при лесных пожарах на территории России увеличиваются на 0.7 млн т. На фоне общего...

Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplifi...

Statistical estimates of the relationship between the duration and intensity of tropical cyclones using RSMC data for the period of 1951-2019 are presented. A good correspondence is noted between the duration of tropical cyclones, including the most powerful ones (typhoons), and their maximum intensity for the Northwest Pacific expressed in the for...

С использованием спутниковых данных и данных реанализа исследованы характеристики и механизмы формирования озоновой “мини-дыры” в атмосфере над Сибирью зимой 2015/2016 гг. Установлена связь региональной отрицательной аномалии общего содержания озона (ОСО), достигавшей –140 единиц Добсона, с атмосферным блокированием. Аномалия ОСО была обусловлена г...

This is the introductory article for the special issue of Izvestia, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics dedicated to the 2019 Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences awarded to Academician Georgy Golitsyn “for making an outstanding contribution to the study of atmospheric physics of the Earth and planets and the development of the theor...

Quantitative estimates of the relationship between interannual variations in the extent of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface air temperature in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are obtained using satellite, ground-based, and reanalysis data for the past four decades (1980–2019). It is shown that the previously noted gener...

New data are presented on tornadoes over land in Russia for the period of 1900–2018 based on various sources. In total, information on 1763 tornadoes was collected, including 993 tornadoes from eyewitness reports on tornado passage and/or associated impacts and 770 tornadoes from satellite data on tornado-induced windthrows. Both single tornadoes a...

Using satellite and reanalysis data, estimates of the significant relationship between the wildfire areas and associated pyrogenic emissions of combustion products with atmospheric blocking events in Russia for the period from 2001 to 2019 were found. It has been established that the contribution to the variance of interannual changes of the wildfi...