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Chapter 11
Climate Change and Its Impact
on Indian Himalayan Forests: Current
Status and Research Needs
Hukum Singh and Manoj Kumar
Abstract Climate change is affecting global natural resources, including forests.
It has also affected the Indian Himalayan forests by influencing ecosystem services
derived from it. The majority of the Indian population depends directly or indirectly
on these services, ultimately affecting Himalayan communities. The climate change
impacts may alter the structure, function, and composition of the Himalayan forest
and are expected to influence the region’s biodiversity. The assessment suggests a
more significant rise in temperature of the western parts compared to the eastern
part of the Indian Himalayas. Climate change effects are manifested as species range
shift, phenological changes, changes in growth patterns, host-parasite interactions,
insect pest incidence, habitat adaptability, biogeochemical interactions, and plant-
animal-resource interactions, and hydrological behavior, etc. This chapter focuses on
the issues of climate change and its implications on the forest ecosystem of the Indian
Himalayas. It also covers the key issues, research gaps, and future research needs for
the region concerning climate change studies. The constructed state of knowledge
about the climate change impacts may provide insight into the forest ecosystem of
the region. It will help researchers and decision-makers to formulate and prioritize
adaptation and mitigation-related research to reduce climate change effects in the
present and future.
Keywords Climate change ·Forest ecosystems ·Phenology ·Ecosystem
services ·Vulnerability ·Indian Himalayan region
Introduction
Climate change has morphed into a worldwide crisis caused by multiple anthro-
pogenic activities, especially the blazing of fossil fuels and land-use changes.
H. Singh (B)
Plant Physiology Discipline, Genetics and Tree Improvement Division, Forest Research Institute,
Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
M. Kumar
GIS Centre, Forest Research Institute, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022
S. Rani and R. Kumar (eds.), Climate Change, Springer Climate,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92782-0_11
223
224 H. Singh and M. Kumar
Human-induced greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions since the pre-industrial epoch
have driven an immense accumulation of concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2—
400 ppm), methane (CH4—1800 ppb), and nitrous oxide (N2O—330 ppb), and other
GHGs in the atmosphere (IPCC 2014). It is predicted that if the increase in CO2emis-
sions continues, the atmospheric CO2concentration will reach up to 720–1000 ppm
(IPCC 2014). This may enhance the air temperature to around 2.6–5.4 °C by 2100
(IPCC 2014). Given the current rate of fossil fuel consumption, it is predicted that the
Earth’s surface temperature will rise by 0.4–0.6 °C on an average during the twenty-
first century (Norby et al. 2003). For India, it is expected to warm by 0.5 °C by 2030
(around equivalent to the warming in the twentieth century) and 2–4 °C by the twenty-
first century, with the most significant rise in the northern part of India (Shukla 2003;
National Intelligence Council 2009). The accumulation rate of CO2in the atmosphere
is 3.5 Pg per year (Pg =1015 g or billion tons) (Albrecht and Kandji 2003). The
immense contribution of anthropogenic CO2emissions into the environment comes
from blazing non-renewable energy sources, particularly fossil fuels, and converting
tropical forests to agricultural production (www.fao.org). The remaining contribu-
tion is mainly because of land-use changes, especially deforestation (Paustian et al.
2000;IPCC2001).
Globally, climate change is perceived as a considerable danger and is at the focal
point of scientific and political debate in recent years. India has a rationale to be
worried about the issues of climate change. India’s large population relies upon
the agriculture and forestry sectors which are climate-sensitive sectors (Upgupta
et al. 2015). The adverse effects on water resources such as the decline of glaciers,
reduced rainfall, and increased flooding in certain areas also threaten food security
(Smadja et al. 2015; Jain and Singh 2018). Climate change is having negative impacts
on natural ecosystems, including the Himalayan ecosystems (Tewari et al. 2017).
Compared with other hilly regions in the world, the Himalayas face a relatively
high-temperature rise. According to reports, the Himalayas’ rate of temperature rise
(0.06 °C/year) is about three times the global average. Due to the rapid warming of
the Himalayas, mountain ecosystems have shown changes in the diversity as well as
distribution of flora and fauna (Shrestha et al. 2012; Chhetri et al. 2021).
Climate change is perceived as one of the critical threats to biodiversity. India’s
climate is highly assorted, varied from the sub-frozen Himalayan winter towards the
tropical climate of the south (Krishnan et al. 2020). The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) has recognized the Himalayan ecosystem as fragile and
highly vulnerable to changing climate (IPCC 2007). The Indian Himalayan Region
(IHR) is a mega hotspot of biodiversity and a repository of valuable medicinal plants
(Rana et al. 2017). The region offers various ecosystem services essential for the
sustenance of humans. Climate change is influencing these services mainly attributed
to increasing atmospheric CO2concentration, an anomaly in rainfall pattern, rising
air/surface temperature, melting and shrinkage of glaciers, etc. Himalaya’s immense
water reservoir in ice (also referred to as the third pole) is also under threat of
climate change (Smadja et al. 2015; Jain and Singh 2018). The impact of climate
change on the Himalayan forest ecosystem has been manifested as species range
shift, phenological shifts in plants’ life cycle, forest growth patterns, changes in
11 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Himalayan Forests … 225
ecosystem boundaries, and other biological and non-biological responses/stresses
(Upgupta et al. 2015; Singh et al. 2017; Zheng et al. 2021). The physiological response
of forests under climate change influence ultimately changes region’s biodiversity
(Bellard et al. 2012; Saxena and Rao 2020; Kumar et al. 2021b,2021f). All of these
alterations affect endemic species’ habitats and the region’s biodiversity (Mehta et al.
2020).
The continuous and systematic observation of climate change influence on the
structure, function, composition, phenology, etc., is not adequately addressed for
the region. The systematic and continuous long-term observations are essential to
developing a clear understanding of climate change’s impact on the Himalayas forest
ecosystems (Negi et al. 2019). In the absence of adequate information, the IPCC lists
the Himalayas as a white spot in its documents and emphasizes the need for systematic
observation of this area (IPCC 2007).
The response of forest ecosystems to disturbances ranges from a year to many
years or even hundreds of years. It largely depends on the system’s state, conditions,
nature, intensity, and disturbance duration. It is to consider the current state of forest
ecosystems as a consequence of both the present and past events (Tewari et al. 2017).
Besides, the belowground processes are the key drivers that regulate the biodiversity
of the ecosystem. The belowground system of vegetation to changing climatic condi-
tions is very complex and has not been adequately dealt with. Vegetation affects the
type and quantity of carbon inflowing the soil system and affects the plant’s root
area physical structure (Watham et al. 2020; Saxena and Rao 2020). This effect is
considered to be an indirect effect on the microbial community and its composition.
Factors such as water, temperature, nitrogen, and other nutrients directly impact the
microbial community because organisms respond to temperature or drought stress
(Kumar et al. 2020a; Singh et al. 2021; Verma et al. 2021). At the same time, the
microbial community is also under the influence of changes in resource availability.
Plants would be affected by microbial responses to climate change, whether directly
or indirectly, due to input in the form of nutrient supply made available to plants by
microbial action (Pugnaire et al. 2019). Therefore, the critical step in understanding
the ecosystem response to climate change must consider understanding the microbial
community’s role (Heath et al. 2005; Leaky et al. 2009).
The vegetation responses to changing climatic conditions such as elevated CO2
and temperature and other climatic variables show a wide range of patterns (Saxena
and Rao 2020; Scheiter et al. 2020). These changes could be either structural modu-
lation, a functional response such as rate of accumulation of primary and secondary
metabolites, or the changes in health-promoting substances or the biomass produc-
tion (Tewari et al. 2017; Apurva et al. 2017; Apurva and Singh 2017; Singh et al.
2018; Sharma et al. 2018; Sharma et al. 2019; Yadav et al. 2019a,2019b; Kumar et al.
2021c; Singh et al. 2021). There is evidence that dominant factors, especially CO2
and air temperature rise, cause noticeable impacts on life cycle, species distribution,
physiological behavior, and plants’ biochemical components (Gairola et al. 2010;
Singh et al. 2014; Gupta et al. 2018b, Kumar et al. 2020c; Singh et al. 2021; Sharma
and Singh 2021).
226 H. Singh and M. Kumar
The IHR’s higher altitude is more vulnerable to climate change’s effects (Apu and
Ghimire 2015). It has been stated that changes in alpine ecosystems, fragmentation
of habitats, changes in the distribution range of species, changes in phenological
patterns, changes in secondary metabolites (Kumar et al. 2012), and the invasion of
alien species will impact the biodiversity of the region (Thapa et al. 2018). Climate
change will also affect the Himalayas’ medicinal plants (Kumari and Singh 2018;
Kumar et al. 2019a,2019b; Gaira and Dhar 2020; Yadav et al. 2021; Dhyani et al.
2021; Kumar et al. 2021d). Telwala et al. (2013) reported that Sikkim’s endemic
plant species in the Himalayas had moved upward by 27.53 m per decade during
1849–2010. Changes in the habitat range of trees (Kelly and Goulden 2008), birds
(Freeman and Freeman 2014), moths (Chen et al. 2009), and butterflies have been
observed globally (Konvicka et al. 2003). Several organisms may face extinction as
a result of these changes, which may also affect population structure and function.
Moreover, not only the floral species are impacted due to climate change, but similar
effects are evident on faunal species in the IHR (Singh et al. 2020,2020c).
The Himalayan biodiversity is also expected to change as a result of projected
climate change scenarios (changes in temperature, rainfall, and so on) (Gilani et al.
2020). Species may adapt to new environmental conditions or adjust their distribution
to follow suitable habitat conditions or face extinction if they cannot move or adapt
(Singh et al. 2020a).
The scientific community has paid increasing attention to the effect of climate
change on global biodiversity hotspots in recent decades; however, scientific infor-
mation concerning the Himalayas is limited (Shrestha et al. 2012; Telwala et al. 2013;
Kumar et al. 2018; Singh et al. 2020a). As a result of the Himalayan habitats’ unique
evolutionary history and complexity, it is necessary to conduct a more systematic and
continuous observation of the biological response to changing climatic circumstances
(Pandit et al. 2007; Kumar et al. 2018; Pandey et al. 2020; Rashid and Romshoo 2020).
Research on these topics is crucial for understanding forest ecosystem processes and
functioning to establish the knowledge base required to assess and predict climate
change impacts (Rawat et al. 2020). Although little is known about the timing and
extent of specific evolutionary processes linked to climate change, developing scien-
tific literature is essential to understand such processes. It is of utmost requirement to
undertake long-term and systematic scientific observation and monitoring to under-
stand the potential effects of climate change on the terrestrial structure. This will
improve climate change’s knowledge and experience and its linkages with forest
ecosystem function and processes (Pandit et al. 2007; Rawat et al. 2020).
Having discussed these facts in mind, the present study attempts to understand the
current state of knowledge, and future research needs to highlight issues of the IHR
related to (i) the biodiversity of the region, (ii) key drivers of changes, (iii) changes in
the various attributes of Himalayan forests, (iv) phenological changes, (iv) ecosystem
services, (v) species range shift and (vi) response of alpine tree line. The compilation
of information is expected to help to address climate change-related issues. Simul-
taneously, the study also highlights significant research questions directly linked to
climate change and biological diversity, including flora, fauna, and microbes in the
IHR.
11 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Himalayan Forests … 227
Biodiversity of the IHR
The IHR covers an area of about 750,000 km2(spread over 3000 km in length
and 250–300 km in width), which lies between ~300 and 8000 m above mean sea
level (AMSL) (https://nmhs.org.in/BCM.php). It has a variety of landscapes and
various soil forms with varying climatic conditions. It is a dynamic landscape with
wealthy biodiversity. The IHR has a high degree of endemism and is noted for its rare
flora and fauna (https://nmhs.org.in/BCM.php). This region occupies nearly 10,000
species, 300 mammals species, 979 bird species, 176 reptiles species, 105 amphibian
species, and 269 freshwater fish species (Kumar and Chopra 2009;https://nmhs.org.
in/BCM.php). Their various levels of endemism are presented in Table 11.1.This
region has about 1748 (23.4% of India) species of medicinal plant with more than
675 wild edible species (Kumar and Chopra 2009;https://nmhs.org.in/BCM.php).
Besides, this landscape hosts diverse ethnic groups inhabiting the remote and chal-
lenging terrains. The communities of the IHR have traditionally been dependent
on bio-resources to support their livelihood (Kumar and Chopra 2009; Rautela and
Karki 2015;https://nmhs.org.in/BCM.php).
It can be seen that changing climatic circumstances alter the habitats of numerous
species, including plants and animals. To find suitable conditions for their survival,
they must adapt or migrate to areas with favorable conditions. Air temperature is one
of the key climate drivers that strongly affect the ecosystems of this region. Even
small fluctuations in average air temperature can significantly affect habitat structure,
functioning, and biodiversity. The interconnected nature of ecosystems means that
the loss of species may affect a series of ecosystem functions. Climate change would
significantly impact the physiological changes of many species (Kumar et al. 2021f).
There is evidence that certain species are physiologically susceptible to temperature
spikes (Gupta et al. 2018a; Kumar et al. 2021a; Kumar et al. 2021f).
The species diversity improves the ecosystem’s ability to sustain multiple func-
tions such as soil binding, maintaining the soil’s health, retaining soil fertility,
supplying clean water to streams and rivers, nutrient cycling, etc. All such bene-
fits are sometimes referred to as “ecosystem services” while the role is referred to
Table 11.1 Biodiversity of
the Indian Himalayan Region S. No Group Species
Tot a l Endemic
1Mammals 300 12
2Plants 10,000 3160
3 Birds 979 15
4Amphibians 105 42
5Reptile 176 48
6Fishes (freshwater) 269 33
(Kumar and Chopra 2009; retrieved on 27/11/2020 from https://
nmhs.org.in/BCM.php)
228 H. Singh and M. Kumar
as “ecosystem function”. Species loss may reduce these services and functioning
significantly when environmental conditions change rapidly. Wherever a species
disappears, it is evident that the functioning of ecosystems and their services change.
These changes are linked to land degradation, changes in the forest, agricultural
productivity, and a decline in the water supply’s quantity and quality.
Climate change-induced variations such as tree phenology, tree growth dynamics,
and species range shift including shifting tree line in the alpine, and changes in
the species’ habitat influence the landscape’s biological diversity (Schickhoff et al.
2015;Lüetal.2020; Bagaria et al. 2021; Zheng et al. 2021). Recent studies of
climate modeling suggest a significant shift in the habitat and distribution of floral
and faunal species leading to range expansion towards higher altitudes (Walther et al.
2005; Telwala et al. 2013; Subha et al. 2018; Singh et al. 2020; Adhikari and Kumar
2020; Kumar et al. 2021e; Mishra et al. 2021). Nevertheless, these observations
highlight the uniqueness of species’ feedback to climate change, which is expected
to affect the ecosystem’s floral and faunal diversity.
Key Drivers of Changes in the Biodiversity
The Himalayan mountain ecosystems have been recognized as one of the hotspots of
biodiversity. The Himalayan mountains have a unique climate compared to other
climatic zones (Korner 2002; Telwala et al. 2013). Various changes have been
witnessed in the distribution pattern of flora and fauna of the region due to climate
change (Singh et al. 2020a; Negi and Mukherjee 2020). The upward expansion and
range shift of various species has been reported in the Himalayan ecosystem (Negi
et al. 2017; Telwala et al. 2013). The population of different biological organisms
has declined due to anthropogenic interventions besides climate change (Bellard
et al. 2012). Climate change is thought to have contributed more to population loss
in some cases than other factors; as a result, climate change has emerged as one
of the prominent drivers of change in this region (Bellard et al. 2012). The multiple
drivers well-known in the region are (i) climate change, (ii) encroachment of habitats,
(iii) land-use/land cover (LULC) change, (iv) fragmentation of land, (v) forest fire,
(vi) livestock grazing and fodder collection, (vii) deforestation, (viii) harvesting of
biomass by local communities, (ix) expansion of agricultural land into forest lands,
(x) overexploitation of medicinal and aromatic plants, (xi) use of chemical fertilizers
as part of modern agriculture, (xii) introduction of invasive alien species, (xiii) unsus-
tainable patterns of ecotourism, etc. Various researchers who have worked in the IHR
have reported climate change as the main driver or threat to Himalayan biodiversity
(Jetz et al. 2007; Salick et al. 2014; Subha et al. 2018; Singh et al. 2020a).
11 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Himalayan Forests … 229
Forest Cover and Phenological Changes Owing to Climate
Change
In recent decades, the world’s total forest cover has faced degradation and defor-
estation because of the growing pressure of human population and its demands
(Chakraborty et al. 2018; Kumari et al. 2019). Additional pressure from climate
change on forest ecosystems is leading to forest degradation (Singh et al. 2020b).
The climate change impacts on forest ecosystems are long-term and irreversible.
The forest cover area had decreased by approximately 11 million km2by 1990
(Ramankutty and Foley 1999). Primarily, most of the deforestation happened in
temperate regions until the mid-twentieth century. However, land abandonment in
Western Europe and North America has increased in recent decades, while defor-
estation in tropical areas has increased exponentially. The rate of net loss of tropical
forest cover in America slowed in the 1990s as compared to the 1980s, but it increased
in Africa and Asia (IPCC 2007). In most areas of Asia, climate change is expected
to exacerbate the threats to biodiversity posed by LULC changes and population
pressures. The IPCC reported this concern with high confidence. Many species in
Asia could face extinction due to the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat
degradation (Holyoak and Heath 2016). There will be more threats to the ecolog-
ical health of wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs in Asia. The extent and scale of
potential forest fires in North Asia are likely to increase in the future due to climate
change and severe weather conditions that could restrict forest expansion (Backlund
et al. 2008; Savita et al. 2017).
Climate change is widely acknowledged to have a significant effect on organ-
isms’ phenological behavior. Phenological behavior is one of the biological indi-
cators of climate change. Phenology is looking at the recurring life cycle of plants
and animals affected by environmental and climatic conditions, especially seasonal
changes (Cleland et al. 2007). These variations consist of seasonal changes in temper-
ature and rainfall forced by weather and climate, so phenological events’ timing is an
excellent indicator of climate change (Malik et al. 2020a,2020b). When researchers
integrate biological clocks into climate monitoring, another term, i.e., seasonality,
is used (Aryal et al. 2020). Seasonality is a concept that refers to non-biological
phenomena that are identical, such as the timing of when the fall forms on a fresh-
water lake in the autumn and when it breaks in the spring (Malsawmkima and Sahoo
2020). Some examples of flower phenology events include budding, leafing, plants’
flowering in spring, leaf color changes in autumn, etc. (Gupta and Singh 2017;
Kumar et al. 2019b; Thapliyal et al. 2020). As far as animal phenology events are
concerned, a few important events are bird migration and nesting, insect hatching, and
animal emergence from hibernation. Phenological monitoring provides independent
measures of the climate change impact on organisms (Bagaria et al. 2020). At the
ecosystem level, phenological monitoring at different stages of the food chain (plant
growth, insect hatching, and bird feeding/nesting) can shed light on the “rippling
effect” of climate change (Naylor et al. 2007).
230 H. Singh and M. Kumar
It is believed that changing climate with increasing concentration of atmospheric
CO2would enhance plant growth (Singh et al. 2018; Sharma et al. 2018; Yadav
et al. 2019a). According to ecological research from a diverse variety of habitats,
species adapt to climate change in extremely heterogeneous ways (Donner et al.
2005;Parmesan2006; Khanduri et al. 2008; Singh et al. 2010; Willis et al. 2010).
Climate change will force species to either adjust their phenological characteristics
(the timing of seasonal events including leaf sprouting, leaf shedding, planting, and
fruiting, as well as seed germination) to adapt to new environments or migrate to
more suitable ecosystem conditions to avoid extinction (Willis et al. 2010; Prajapati
et al. 2020; Basnett and Devy 2021). Well-established ecological records indicate that
plant phenological events have changed, such as early leaves, flowering, fruiting, and
the increase in the growing season’s length in recent decades (Khanduri et al. 2008;
Singh et al. 2010; Kumar et al. 2019a). Although research on species’ adaptation
responses is growing, it is expected that the effect of climate change will be so
gradual that most species’ life history characteristics will not be able to keep up
(Donner et al. 2005). Therefore, to survive, most species will be forced to change
their range (Parmesan 2006).
The phenological changes in various plant species of the Himalayas in the Uttarak-
hand state have been reported. A study by Negi et al. (2017) reported early flowering,
fruiting, and leaf emergence (about 20–25 days) of various Himalayan plants such
as Berginia ligulata,Allium stracheyi,Prunus cerasoides,Rhododendron arboreum,
Bauhinia variegate, and Bombax cieba. An important plant species, i.e., Rhododen-
dron arboreum was observed to have early flowering in January, whereas normal
flowering is from February to March (Negi et al. 2017). Most findings report
that changing climatic variability, influences plant species’ phenological behavior,
including crops (Salick et al. 2014; Kumar et al. 2018,2019a). The tree lines in the
Himalayas have shifted as a result of phenological behavior and species adaptation
(Schwab et al. 2018). Negi et al. (2017) and Singh et al. (2020) traced changes in
distribution, population density, and regeneration patterns of tree species in Uttarak-
hand’s Himalayan ecosystem. Moreover, faunal species such as birds including bats
and insects have demonstrated changes in their phenological behavior, such as the
prior beginning of the migration, egg-laying, and breeding (Thapa et al. 2021).
Such changes influence the composition of ecosystems, thereby affecting ecosystem
functioning and services (Upgupta et al. 2015;NegiandRawal2019).
Ecosystem ’Services’ Response to Climate Change
As per the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), climate change can be one of
the key causes of biodiversity loss by the end of the twenty-first century (MEA 2005).
Bellard et al. (2012) conducted that changing climate conditions force biodiversity to
respond to changing habitat conditions, life cycles, or the evolution of novel physical
characteristics (Negi and Rawal 2019). The global average temperature of the Earth
has risen by 0.74 °C (Hannah et al. 2007). Besides, other factors such as rainfall
11 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Himalayan Forests … 231
patterns and the occurrence of extreme events have also increased. These changes
have not been consistent at a spatial or temporal scale, and the range of variability
in the climate has been witnessed in the Himalayan region (Singh et al. 2020a).
Climate change has influenced the biological and physical system of the Himalayas,
particularly commencement, length and end of the season, glacier melting and retreat,
and habitat shift of the species (Upgupta et al. 2015). Such changes also have resulted
in changes in the regime of water availability affecting biological survival (Hannah
et al. 2007).
Sometimes such changes affect biological diversity and ecosystem services posi-
tively (Upgupta et al. 2015). The changes linked with increasing temperature and
CO2concentration might have improved the net primary productivity (NPP) of the
Himalayan region because NPP had an increasing trend for 2004–2014 (Kumar et al.
2018).
The model-based studies advocate that climate change may impact the Himalayan
ecosystem’s functioning (Hannah et al. 2007; Singh et al. 2020). Climate change
may also alter nutrient cycling and biogeochemical cycle under changes in litter-
fall pattern and decomposition rate (Kumar et al. 2018). Therefore, it is required to
investigate climate change impacts on other ecosystem services, including supply of
food, fiber, timber, carbon sequestration, water regulation and supply, host-parasite
interactions, etc. (Joshi and Singh 2020; Joshi et al. 2021). Conversely, there is uncer-
tainty regarding the magnitudes and extent of such impact influencing ecosystem
services flow. Furthermore, there is ambiguity concerning how potential climate
change becomes permanent in terms of ecosystem conditions and resources, which
needs to be studied.
ClimateChangeAffectsAlpineTreeLineandRangeShift
of Species
The observation of the alpine tree line response can be used as one of the biological
indicators to trace the changes in the Himalayan ecosystem’s functioning due to
climate change (Schickhoff et al. 2015; Singh et al. 2020). Various terms are used
for such studies among the scientific community. To have a better understanding,
these terms have been explained in Table 11.2. Among all the terminology, the term
“Alpine tree line” has widely been used for climate change-related studies impacting
the alpine vegetation of the Himalayas.
People have high confidence that recent warming has had an intense impact on
terrestrial biological environments such as early spring activities, the timing of leaf
unfolding, bird migration and spawning, and the transfer of habitat range to higher
elevations (Gaire et al. 2020). According to satellite-based observations since the
early 1980s, it is believed that due to global warming, many areas have seen a trend
of early vegetation greening in spring, which is related to the long hot season (IPCC
2007). Approximately 20–30% of the animal and plant species measured so far
232 H. Singh and M. Kumar
Table 11.2 Terminologies used for studying ecological dynamics in the mountain ecosystem and
their explanation
Ter m Definition Interpretation
Treeline It expresses the maximum elevation
range up to which tree exists
This term must not be inferred as the
timberline, which is usually referred to
as the commercially important timber
species
Timberline It denotes the ecological identity of the
upper altitudinal limit of tree growth in
the mountain and the Himalayan
ecosystem (Negi 2012)
The term timberline refers to the
highest limit for commercial timber
species (Negi 2012)
Alpine treeline It represents the maximum elevation
range to which tree exists in a
mountain ecosystem such as
Himalayas (Negi 2012)
The term “Alpine treeline” is the
best-fitted ecological term for forest
trees at a higher altitude, reflecting the
science behind ecological principles
(Negi 2012)
Forest line It is the uppermost elevations of the
nearest forest stands in the mountain
or Himalaya (Singh et al. 2009)
This term considers all the species
including trees; hence sometimes, it
creates confusion to define a treeline
(Negi 2012)
Upper treeline Existence of treeline at the limit of the
highest altitude in the mountain
ecosystem (Negi 2012)
It creates a lower line’s utopian
existence, which has no ecological
relevance (Negi 2012). It’s challenging
to determine the upper treeline in high
mountains or higher altitudes (Miehe
et al. 2007)
Ecotonal zone It refers to the highest mountain
vegetation’s transitional boundary,
including herbs, shrubs, and trees
(Negi 2012)
This zone may occur at more than one
elevation at the upper and lower
borderline. It could not express
climatic circumstances existing
similarly at the treeline, even within an
ecotonal area (Negi 2012). Hence, this
term diverges from ecology principles
that do not excuse the strength of
treeline in ecological studies (Negi
2012)
would pose a greater risk of extinction if the global average temperature increases
more than 1.5–2.5 °C (IPCC 2007). Species range shift under the influence of climate
change has also been supported by the paleo ecological records (e.g., fossils) (Coope
and Wilkins 1994). Climate change affects community structure, species abundance,
species interactions, and the habitat’s shifting (Sala et al. 2020;Jetzetal.2007;
Bhandari et al. 2019,2020).
Telwala e t al. (2013) reported that about 90% of the alpine endemic plant species
in the Sikkim Himalayas shifted their range of existence in the known history of
period 1850–1909 by 23–998 m during the assessment of 2007–2010. The upward
displacement rate per decade has been reported as 27.53 m in the IHR (Telwala
11 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Himalayan Forests … 233
et al. 2013), while in the Alps, this is reported as 34.26 m (Walther et al. 2005). It is
predicted that the suitable habitat of birch (Betula utilis), the main tree species in the
natural tree line of the Himalayas, will move upwards in the eastern Himalayas by
the years 2050 and 2070 under the influence of climate change while there will be a
net decrease in suitable habitat in the western Himalayas (Hamid et al. 2019; Roy and
Rathore 2019). The endemic species of the Himalayan ecosystem are susceptible and
more vulnerable to climate change (Bhattacharjee et al. 2017; Ahmad et al. 2021). It
is predicted that Himalayan native angiosperms are expected to lose 16% and 18%
of their viable habitat by 2050 and 2070, respectively (Manish et al. 2016). However,
it is expected that by 2050 and 2070, the alpine meadow area will decrease by 1%
and 3%, respectively. The expansion of shrub habitat has been witnessed towards the
northern part of the Sikkim Himalaya (Manish et al. 2016).
Future Research Needs for Addressing Climate
Change-Related Issues
As very little information is available concerning the time and extent of the ecological
impact in the IHR. Thus, there is an urgency to improve scientific understanding.
The dynamics of forest ecosystems operate on multiple time scales, so long-term
observations must determine the key factors that control ecosystem structure and
function (Sekar et al. 2017; Rawat et al. 2020). Retrospective experiments expand
the period of long-term studies by producing reference data and allowing calibration
(Singh and Thadani 2015).
The (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (UNFCCC 34)
Subsidiary Science and Technology Advisory Agency (SBSTA) dialogue on research
needs and priorities stressed the importance of maintaining ongoing, comprehensive
measurements and expanding the reach of observations that might be employed for
climate change impact studies (such as the Himalayas) (Rawat et al. 2020;Verma
et al. 2020). Accordingly, various dimensions of the Himalayan ecosystem have been
identified where systematic and continuous long-term observations are required to
investigate the climate change effects (Singh and Thadani 2015; Sekar et al. 2017).
Some of the thematic areas of research relevant in the light of climate change for the
IHR are (i) biological diversity, (ii) species distribution and composition, (iii) species
range shift, (iv) shifting of the alpine tree line, (v) phenological changes, (vi) biogeo-
chemical interactions, (vii) insect pest interaction, (viii) biochemical constituents of
medicinal plants, (ix) soil microbial dynamics, and other soil fauna under climate
change, etc. These thematic areas need to address the following prominent questions.
•What impact will climate change have on biodiversity (including plants, animals,
insects, fungi, microbes, etc.) species populations, distribution, and range?
•What will be the impact of climate change on floral and faunal phenology?
•What effect will climate change have on the abundance, distribution, and migration
of insect pests?
234 H. Singh and M. Kumar
•How will the host-parasite interaction change due to climate change?
•How will the pollinators respond to different climate change scenarios?
•What will be the impact of climate change on biogeochemical cycling?
•What will be its influence on different plant functional traits (such as regeneration,
morphology, transpiration, photosynthesis, growth, etc.)?
•How will climate change impact bioactive ingredients of medicinal and aromatic
plants?
•How will the climatic variables impact the hydrological services?
•What will be its impact on the snow and glacier reservoirs of the Himalayas?
•What will be its impact on forest fire incidences?
•What will be the spatial and temporal variation of climate change vulnerability,
and how can this be minimized?
•How will the adaptation and mitigation potential of the Himalayan ecosystem be
influenced?
•How will the Himalayan species respond to different gradients of CO2, tempera-
ture, soil moisture, and humidity?
•What will be its influence on the resource use efficiency of Himalayan plants?
•What will be its impact on spatial and temporal variation of productivity?
•What will be its impact on the multiple ecosystem services derived from the
Himalayas?
•What is the paleo-climatological evidence, and how could this be linked to climate
change studies?
•What is the effective feedback between the atmosphere and Himalayan forests,
and how are they governed under changing climate?
•How could multiple complex forces be integrated simply and scientifically to
represent them in a computer-based model?
Conclusions
It is concluded that climate change would have multiple effects on the Himalayan
forest ecosystem (endemic species, host-parasite interactions, ecosystem boundaries
and range shift, changes in alpine tree line, habitat alterations, phenological modula-
tions, carbon sequestration potential, genetic diversity). Its related disturbances such
as floods, droughts, wildfires, etc. are probably to become more frequent soon. Hence,
it is necessary to prioritize central research questions emerging due to climate change
to ensure the Himalayan forest ecosystem’s sustainability. Forest ecosystem response,
understanding, and linkages with the climatic and other variables are essential for
formulating any plan to mitigate climate change impacts. This will further assist in
developing computer-based models to simulate the responses. The compiled facts
under this chapter would help policymakers, planners, and researchers understand
various climate change implications relevant to the Himalayan forest ecosystem. The
thematic research areas’ prioritization to address the emerging prominent research
questions highlighted in this chapter is essential to have a sustained flow of the
11 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Himalayan Forests … 235
entire ecosystem of the IHR. There is also a need for international and national inter-
disciplinary collaborations to deal with the mentioned research questions, funding
facilities, and better equipment.
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