Fraser Summerfield

St. Francis Xavier University · Department of Economics

This paper provides causal evidence that labour market opportunities affect theft‐related crime rates in Canada. Synthetic panel data from 2007–2011 combine the Labour Force Survey and Uniform Crime Reports microdata. Low‐skill unemployment rates and corresponding crime rates are measured for age‐city‐specific groups of young males. IV estimates ex...

This paper examines the impacts of a large and anticipated government transfer, the Russian old-age pension, on labor supply, home production, and subjective wellbeing. The discontinuity in eligibility at pension age is exploited for inference. The 2006–2011 Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is employed. At pension age, women reduce market wor...

We use new linked full-count census data for Canada to document intergenerational occupational mobility from 1871 to1901. We find significant differences between Canadian regions and language groups, with linguistic minorities experiencing notably lower rates of intergenerational mobility. International comparisons place Canada midway between other...

This article demonstrates that economic conditions affect job match quality by influencing the task shares of available jobs. Cognitive (reasoning/communication) and physical (sensory/coordination) task shares and education-based overqualification measures are generated from Canada’s Labour Force Survey, the Career Handbook, and the Occupational In...

COVID-19 and the associated economic disruption is not a unique pairing. Catastrophic health events including the Black Death and the Spanish Flu also featured major economic disruptions. This paper focuses on significant health shocks during 1870-2016 from a singular virus: influenza. Our analysis builds on a literature dominated by long-run analy...

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal...

This article uses new linked full-count census data for Canada to document intergenerational occupational mobility from 1871 to1901. We find significant differences between Canadian regions and language groups, with linguistic minorities experiencing notably lower rates of intergenerational mobility. International comparisons place Canada midway be...

Linked historical records typically are unrepresentative of the population from which they are drawn even if the method of linking is restricted to time-invariant matching criteria. An example drawn from Canadian census records illustrates the nature of bias that may afflict even a carefully linked sample. The use of potentially time-varying match...

Economic theory suggests that workers’ pay is mainly determined by their marginal product and that industry wage differentials may result either from the structure of the industry (demand type factors) or human capital characteristics of the employed labour force (supply type factors). This study uses a major data set from the US that allows the in...

Scully curves estimating growth-maximizing public-sector size are constructed using panel data covering 17 industrialized nations from 1870–2016. Results suggest that government expenditure-to-GDP ratios between 24% and 32% were historically growth maximizing. Instrumental variable estimates support the quadratic Scully curve relationship as causal...

Little evidence is available to assess the effect of substituting occupation-based income scores for individual incomes before 1940. The example of immigrant assimilation in Canada 1911–31 reveals differences in the extent and even the direction of assimilation depending on whether income scores are used and how the occupational income score is con...

Little evidence is available to assess the effect of substituting occupation-based income scores for individual incomes before 1940. The example of immigrant assimilation in Canada 1911-1931 reveals differences in the extent and even the direction of assimilation depending on whether income scores are used and how the occupational income score is c...

Introduction Linking distinct historical sources on an automated basis directs attention to the quality and representativeness of the linked data created by these systems. Linking with time-invariant personal characteristics arguably minimizes bias or departures from representativeness even though a wider set of features might generate more links....

This article shows that unfavorable economic conditions at graduation decrease the likelihood of a good job-worker match over a worker's subsequent career. Mismatch is quantified in terms of overeducation by both industry and occupation. The German Socio-Economic Panel and region-level unemployment rates from 1994 to 2012 are used. Instrumental var...

This paper uses Canadian census data from 1911 to 1931 to trace the labour market assimilation of immigrants up to the onset of the Great Depression. We find that substantial earnings convergence between 1911 and 1921 was reversed between 1921 and 1931, with immigrants from Continental Europe experiencing a sharp decline in earnings relative to the...

This paper uses Canadian census data from 1911 to 1931 to trace the labour market assimilation of immigrants up to the onset of the Great Depression. We find that substantial earnings convergence between 1911 and 1921 was reversed between 1921 and 1931, with immigrants from Continental Europe experiencing a sharp decline in earnings relative to the...

Social norms about work evolved substantially in Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of full employment. However, amongst the subpopulation of older workers, whose views were formed under labour hoarding, ideas about working life remained similar. The resulting environment facilitates a natural experiment. The causal impac...