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Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) : 308-319, 2014 ISSN : 0976-2876 (Print)
ISSN : 2250-0138 (Online)
1
Corresponding author
EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED (A
CASE STUDY: BALIKHLOU RIVER, ARDEBIL-IRAN)
ZAHRA SAMEENEZHAD
a
, EBRAHIM FATAEI
b1
, HAMED HASSANPOUR
c
, AKRAM
OJAGHI
d
AND HAFEZ JABARI
e
abde
Department of Environmental Engineering, Ardabil Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran
c
Young Researchers Club, Tonekabon Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tonekabon, Iran
ABSTRACT
In the view of many experts, climate change is a natural phenomenon which occurs in long-term temporal
sequences and occurs again. Impact of human activities causes to exacerbate the effectsof climate change phenomenon,
variations trend intensity and changing the period of climate changes sequence. In investigating the climate change,
meteorological parameters can be used as climate change indices. In this study, variations of climatic and meteorological
parameters including discharge flow rate, temperature, precipitation and humidity were investigated in Balikhoochay
watershed using 25-year statistics (1980-2005) of this watershed. The results showed that, in some cases, increase of
precipitation had no impact on the increase of discharge flow rate and perhaps, some reductions were seen the reason of
which can include uncontrolled water withdrawal from surface water for various consumption, or increase of
temperature, and increase of evaporation from the earth surface. But, generally it is probable that, the amount of
temperature will increase and the amount of precipitation and discharge flow rate will decrease until the next 10 years.
KEYWORDS: Climatic Fluctuations, Climatic Parameters, Curve Expert, Iran
Climate is the average of terrestrial or
aquatic atmospheric conditions considering seasonal
and temporal conditions. Industries and factories
growth and deforestation and degradation of
environment have caused increasing greenhouse
gasses in the earth surface during the recent decades.
Various researches have represented the effect of this
enhancement on the earth climate. The most
important impact of this enhancement has been on
the earth temperature which has been called in
scientific literatures as global warming. The effect of
this enhancement has not been only on the earth
temperature; but also, it has affected the other
climatic variables which forms climate change
phenomenon. Negative effects of this phenomenon
can be intensified due to the society’ attention to the
rapid development of the industry and less attention
to the environment (Akbari, 2002). Climate change in
the view of
theoristsincludesemergenceofgradualirreversiblechan
ges(Sedqi, 1975).
Many researchers believe that, in long-term
periods, some changes occur in the climate which
consist of repeatabilitytrendand are also exceptional.
Also, the researchers believe that, the climatic
changes occur in different timescales. It is believed
that, atmosphere behavior and its variations are
irregular that represents uncertain behavior of
meteorological phenomena and particularly
atmospheric disasters occurrence; therefore,
statistical analysis have an important role in
describing climatic and atmospheric disasters.
Yarmohammadi et al. (2008) evaluated the
climate change and its impacts on surface water
resources. In this study, a 15-year (1990-2005) data
of precipitation, temperature and discharge flow rate
of the river meteorological and hydrometric stations
of Naharkhoranhave been analyzed and the results
were compared to the data of 1975-1990. The results
showed that, by passing 10 years in the study period,
the temperature increased by1.9 ⁰C. Increasing the
mean temperature in the study area in the winter can
intensify snow melting and
consequentlydroughtinspringand summer. Total
precipitation variations from a year to another had a
slope by -9.244 and totally, approximately
9mmofannual rainfallhas decreased every year. Mean
annual precipitation for the period 1975-1990 was
760.34 mm and for 1990-2005 was 6072.97 mm.
Drought duration has been increased in the period
1990-2005 compared to 1975-1990. The mean
discharge flow rate has decreased 0.2 m
3
for every 10
years. The amounts of total precipitation and
discharge flow rate of the river had a constant trend
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
in 1975-1990 but, this trend was decreasing due to
the reduction of total annual precipitation.
Rahimi et al. (2008) predicted the climate
change in Tabriz using the model of
GoddardInstitutefor Space Studies. In this study, the
effects of doubling ofcarbon dioxide levels on
temperature and precipitation as the most important
climatic elements have been simulated using monthly
data resulted from calculation of coefficients of
temperature and precipitation of the network points in
the coordinates of Tabriz station and monthly data of
temperature and precipitation od Tabriz
meteorological station in a 52-year statistical period
(1951-2003).The models stated monthly variations of
temperature and precipitation by doubling of the
atmosphere carbon dioxide. The mentioned simulated
elements were compared by averaging the actual and
simulated data of temperature and precipitation. The
results of temperature and precipitation simulation by
GISS method showed temperature enhancement in
Tabriz in all periods and reduction of precipitation in
winter (February and March) and spring (April and
May) and precipitation enhancement in summer,
autumn and annual.
Jahanbakhsh et al. (2010) modelled the
climatic change parameters in Mazandaran Province.
In this study, climate change of Mazandaran Province
was investigated based on variations of the
parameters of mean annual precipitation, temperature
and relative humidity besides evaluating Domarten
drought indexin a 20-year period. Then, the
variations were modelled mathematically using
regression models and Curve Expert software.
Results stated clear variations of temperature and
relative humidity during the base period; while, the
amount of precipitation had a relative increase at the
end of study period compared to its beginning. Also,
despite a relative change in the value of Domarten
drought index, there was no climate change in the
region during the pasttwodecades.
Motiei et al. (2008) evaluated the effects of
climate change and drought on water resources in
Canada. According to the official measurements
during the recent years, water level of Superior Lake
which is the largest lake among five lakes,has had a
significant reduction by 50 cm less than normal level.
To conduct this study, statistics of the watershed and
river precipitation, watershed runoff and water
elevation of the lake were analyzed. The results of
achieved statistical trends showed that, by
approaching the end of 20
th
century and early 21
st
century, the trends slope becomes negative and are
significant statistically. Results also show that, if the
trend continues with the same mode, the reduction of
the lake water level will continue during the next
decade and will cause to more recedingofthe Lake’
shores and environmental and economic damages in
this lake.
QahrevardiTali (2008) investigated climatic
elements variability in the rivers of Iran. In this study,
variations of precipitation, maximum and minimum
temperature have been investigated in Iran.
According to the obtained results, it can be predicted
that, water resources of Iran will be faced with more
serious problems so that, natural power of Iran for
water preservation and supply will decrease
gradually. In other words, water resources in Iran will
be faced with water loss through increase of floods
and evaporation
Shokouhi et al. (2008) studied the effect of
climate change on climatic conditions through
satellite images. Temporal and spatial variations of
temperature and precipitation as the most important
climatic factors were investigated using 696
simultaneous images of monthly temperature and
precipitation. Results showed that, ascending trend of
mean monthly temperature is seen in entire the
country which represents gradual weather warming.
Precipitation variations also were significant at
different probability levels.
Val and Totorelli (1996) studied the
probable trend of river flow in the west of Oklahoma
and concluded that, the river flow had a significant
descending trend.
Zou (2000) conducted a study on rivers flow
regime in Sweden and concluded that, the amount of
flow has increased significantly in winter and has
decreased in spring and summer.
Garbertchetal(2004) evaluated the effects of
climate change on precipitation, river flow and
reference cropevapotranspiration in 10 watersheds in
the U.S. Their results stated a significant ascending
trend for the three mentioned parameters.
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Zou et al. (2004) studied variation trend of
temperature, precipitation and discharge flow rate in
China using parametric andnon-parametrictests. The
results showed that, time series of temperature had a
significant ascending trend and precipitation values
also increased. Although, time series of discharge
flow rate had a significant ascending trend, this trend
was descending in most of the river path.
Tadson (2007) studied the effects of climate
change on the flows of Denmark’ rivers during the
years 1961 to 1990. Results showed that, the values
of discharge flow rate of the rivers have decreased
since December to August and increased in
September and October.
Ji Yung et al. (2007) analyzed the variations
trend of precipitation and river discharge flow rate in
Yangtze River watershed in statistical period 1961-
2000. Their results showed a significant positive
trend for precipitation data of summer. Also, the river
discharge flow rate has increased significantly in
most of stations in the 40-year statistical period.
Considering that, Ardebil region is a semi-
arid region in Iran, and Balikhoochay River is one of
the main rivers in the region to meet various
consumption including drinking, agriculture and
industry, the present study has been conducted to
investigate the effects of climatic fluctuations on the
variation of flow rate of this river.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Balikhoochay River is one of the main rivers
in the region to meet various consumption including
drinking, agriculture and industry. Therefore, the
present study was conducted on discharge flow rate
data of Balikhoochay River and parameters of
precipitation, temperature and humidity of Ardebil
meteorological station in a 25-year statistical period
since 1980 to 2005 in three hydrometric stations
including Hirchay, Laychay and Balikhoochay. The
used data in this study include precipitation,
temperature, discharge flow rate and humidity as raw
statistical recorded indices affecting the climate. For
climatic parameters, the data of Ardebil synoptic
station were used.
In order to analyze data time series and their
variation trend, Curve Expert software was used. This
software is astatistical-mathematical software which
provides the possibility of determining the best
equation on the variations between the variable x, y
based on the data fitting to various mathematical
models and drawing the best curve fitted to the data
by comparison of standard error and correlation
coefficient and R
2
value.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The data of 25-year period were analyzed
using Curve Expert software. The results obtained by
software analysis about the used parameters are as
below:
a) Variations of discharge flow rate, humidity,
temperature and precipitation in spring
The results obtained from data analysis using Curve
Expert showed that, precipitation was high in early
April and this precipitation is as snow since the
region is mountainous, and decrease in the late April.
In early April, discharge flow rate increase due to
enhancement of temperature but, it decreases in the
late April and the amount of humidity increases with
temperature enhancement (Figure 1).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure 1: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in April during the 25-year statistical period
In May, the amount of precipitation highly
increases which directly affects flow discharge rate
and increases it. Temperature and humidity also have
an increasing trend but, temperature variations had no
effect on the amount of flow discharge rate (Figure
2).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure2: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve Expert
in Balikhoochay watershed in May during the 25-year statistical period
In June, precipitation was high and flow
discharge rate increases as a consequent of
temperature enhancement and snow melting in
mountainous regions but, the amount of humidity has
been constant(Figure 3). Therefore, it is seen that,
flow discharge rate has been increased due to
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
temperature enhancement and snow melting in
mountainous regions and high precipitation in spring.
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure 3: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in June during the 25-year statistical period
b) Variations of discharge flow rate, humidity,
temperature and precipitation in summer
The results obtained from data analysis
using Curve Expert showed that, precipitation was
high in early July but, the precipitation reach zero in
the middle and late July. Flow discharge rate is high
at the beginning of month when temperature is low,
but, at the late July when temperature increases, flow
discharge rate decreases. The amount of humidity
fluctuates since early July till the late July (Figure 4).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Temperature Precipitation
Figure 4: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in July during the 25-year statistical period
Temperature variations in August was ascending and so, snow reserves are melted and has affected flow
discharge rate and increased it (Figure 5).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure5: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve Expert
in Balikhoochay watershed in August during the 25-year statistical period
Precipitation in September has been with
some fluctuations and has causes to increase flow
discharge rate but, it had no impact on flow discharge
rate.
Achieved Figure s from summer show that,
precipitation and flow discharge rate have a direct
relationship and temperature has had no effect on the
reduction of flow discharge rate (Figure 6).
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Figure 6: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in September during the 25-year statistical period
c) Variations of discharge flow rate, humidity,
temperature and precipitation in autumn
Results of investigating temporal variations
of the studied parameters during the 25-year
statistical period showed that, in October,
precipitation was ascending firstly; but, it decreased
at the middle and end of the month and accordingly,
flow discharge rate had a rise and fall. Temperature
was low at early October but it increased at the
middle and end of the month. Humidity also had an
ascending trend. Temperature enhancement and
reduction of precipitation caused no variation in the
amount of humidity (Figure 7).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature Precipitation
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Figure7: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve Expert
in Balikhoochay watershed in October during the 25-year statistical period
The results showed that, in November,
precipitation variations had a constant slope which
indicates reduction of flow discharge rate. On the
other hand, temperature had an ascending trend and
humidity also is minimized (Figure 8).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature
Precipitation
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Figure 8: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in November during the 25-year statistical period
In December, precipitation had a uniform
fluctuations and affected the flow discharge rate so
that, after a rise, the Figure becomes constant and the
amount of flow discharge rate decreased with a
constant slope. Temperature also gradually dropped
and the humidity also decreased (Figure 9). Therefore
it can be concluded that, in autumn, flow discharge
rate of the stations decreases due to reduction of
precipitation and lack of humidity.
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure 9: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in December during the 25-year statistical period
d) Variations of discharge flow rate, humidity,
temperature and precipitation in autumn
In January, precipitation occurrence was
high. On the other hand, temperature was low at the
early January and flow discharge rate was higher but,
the flow discharge rate decreased with increase of
temperature. Humidity was high due to high
precipitation (Figure 10).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure10: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in January during the 25-year statistical period
In February, precipitation was increasing
with a gentle slope. Flow discharge also increased at
the end of this month and humidity was increasing
with a gentle slope. Flow discharge rate also was
increased due to low temperature and low possibility
of evaporation (Figure 11).
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure 11: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in February during the 25-year statistical period
In March, the variations were significant with a wide
range; so that, high precipitation directly affected the
flow discharge rate and increased it. Temperature
also was increasing in this season and the humidity
was fluctuating (Figure 12). Therefore, it is seen that,
although, the precipitation in winter is mostly as
snow, when temperature is maximum, flow discharge
rate and humidity become maximum due to melting
the snow reserves.
SAMEENEZHAD ET AL.: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE WATERSHED..
Indian J.Sci.Res. 3(1) :308-319, 2014
Humidity
Flow discharge rate
Temperature
Precipitation
Figure 12: Temporal variations of discharge flow rate, precipitation and humidity obtained from Curve
Expert in Balikhoochay watershed in March during the 25-year statistical period
CONCLUSION
Meteorological parameters can be used as
climate change indices in investigating climate
change. In this study, the effect of climate on the
flow discharge rate of Balikhoochay River has been
evaluated using 25-year statistics (1980-2005) of
discharge flow rate, temperature, precipitation and
humidity by Curve Expert software. The results of
statistical data analysis of Balikhoochay showed that,
temperature variations have had no effect on flow
discharge rate. The results of flow discharge rate
variations indicated that, climatic parameters
variation is involved for reduction of flow discharge
rate in 50% of cases,andfor the rest of casesprobably,
uncontrolled water withdrawal is involved.
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