Dengpan Xiao

Hebei Normal University · College of Geography Science

Climate change has already and will continue to exert a vital impact on crop yield and water use in the North China Plain (NCP). Currently, this plain is facing a dilemma between groundwater depletion and grain production demand. It is urgent to identify the impact of future climate change on crop yield and water consumption and then develop effici...

Crop production in the North China Plain (NCP) is heavily influenced by the unfolding climate change and water shortage. Groundwater overdraft for irrigation in this region has caused serious ecological and environmental problems. Cropping systems adjustment offers an effective approach for the sustainable use of groundwater. However, the assessmen...

Crop phenology is the process of crop growth and yield formation, which is largely driven by climatic conditions. It is vital to investigate the shifts in crop phenological processes in response to climate variability. Previous studies often only explored the response of a single crop phenology to climate change, and lacked comparative studies on t...

Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evalua...

The increase of extreme climate events under a warming climate has and will continue to threaten the growth and development of maize across the North China Plain (NCP). Understanding and assessing the spatiotemporal changes of future extreme climate events during the maize growth period are essential for developing adaptation strategies to reduce t...

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, which will negatively impact crop production. As one of the main food and feed crops, maize is also vulnerable to extreme climate events. In order to accurately and comprehensively assess the future climate risk to maize, it is urgent to project and evaluate the...

With global climate warming, extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, posing a great threat to crop production. In this study, twelve extreme climate indices (ECIs) were defined to characterize climate events prone to occurring during key phenological stages of wheat. Additionally, eighteen Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Mo...

Global warming is becoming more severe throughout the 21st century as greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), continue soaring. Climate change and its impacts are hitherto one of the key research hotspots. Since natural agricultural systems depend on the climate and environment, climate change has direct impacts on agricultural produ...

Assessing the impact of climate extremes on crop production is an important prerequisite for exploring agro-nomic practices to deal with changing climate. Process-based crop models are effective tools to assess the effect of climate change on crop yield, but cannot accurately express the impact of extreme climate events on crop yield. In this study...

Understanding how climate change has been affecting crop yield is a prerequisite to inform adaptation decisions and to ensure global food security. The Northeast China (NEC), located in high-latitude area, is significantly affected by climate change. There is a high demand for quantitative information on impacts of climate variability on crop yield...

Climate change and its impacts on agricultural production and food security are a significant source of public concern around the world. In order to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, maintain crop production levels, and even discover opportunities in agricultural intensification, researchers have made great efforts to as...

The accuracy prediction for the crop yield is conducive to the food security in regions and/or nations. To some extent, the prediction model for crop yields combining the crop mechanism model with statistical regression model (SRM) can improve the timeliness and robustness of the final yield prediction. In this study, the accumulated biomass (AB) s...

Reducing the water footprint per unit of crop production reduces the pressure on the limited freshwater resources. This study used data from a four-year field experiment conducted in the agro-pastoral ecotone (APE) of Northern China, to calibrate and validate the APSIM-Potato model, and determine the impacts of planting dates on the water footprint...

Extreme climate event (ECE) had exerted great impacts on human life, and the study of extreme climate can reduce the risks caused by ECEs for social and economic development. In the study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal change characteristics of 26 extreme climate indices (ECIs) during 1971-2100 in the North China Plain (NCP) based on observed cli...

Global climate change has had a significant impact on crop production and agricultural water use. Investigating different future climate scenarios and their possible impacts on crop production and water consumption is critical for proposing effective responses to climate change. In this study, based on daily downscaled climate data from 22 Global C...

Rising temperatures and varying precipitation patterns pose huge challenges to the global potato supply. Understanding the adaptation potential of potato to climate change is urgently needed to help develop effective measures for future agriculture and food security. In this study, we evaluated future potato yield changes under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C wa...

Extreme temperature events are becoming more frequent due to global warming, and have critical effects on natural ecosystems, social and economic spheres, human production and life. Predicting changes in temperature extremes and trends under future climate scenarios helps to assess the impact of climate change accurately. Based on climate observati...

The accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations is essential for health risk assessment and the formulation of air pollution prevention and control strategies. In this study, we selected a two-stage statistical regression model, which combined the linear mixed effect (LME) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, and applied aerosol opti...

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) seriously affects the environment, climate, and human health. Over the past decades, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) has been severely affected by pollutant gas and PM2.5 emissions caused by heavy industrial production, topography, and other factors and has been one of the most polluted areas in China. Current...

China ranks the first in total planting area and production of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) over the world. However, high potato yield depends on a large amount of irrigation that raises a series of environment problems. Assessing the water-saving potential across China's potato planting regions is of importance for maintaining sustainable develop...

Climate change has and will continue to exert significant effects on social economy, natural environment, and human life. Research on the climatic suitability of crops is critical for mitigating and adapting to the negative impacts of climate change on crop production. In the study, we developed the climate suitability model of maize and investigat...

Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) has broad spatial coverage and relatively high spatio-temporal resolution. Estimating PM2.5 concentrations based on the correlation between AOD and PM2.5 has become an effective method for monitoring the ground-level PM2.5. The estimation results are reliable and can provide data and scientific basis...

Water is a determining factor in crop production, particularly with the increase of irrigation areas and crops in recent years. Water shortage has posed a great challenge to crop production in North China. Fortunately, the nitrogen (N) fertilizer can serve as another key factor for crop growth and yield formation. However, there is a severe unbalan...

The long‐term extraction of groundwater for crop irrigation under the high‐yielding double‐cropping system of winter wheat and summer maize over the last decades has led to rapid depletion of groundwater in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, we used the well‐validated APSIM model to evaluate the yield and water use of the current cropping...

Potato is a staple food crop in the agro-pastoral ecotone (APE) of North China. However, the potato yield is low and highly variable due to limited water and nutrient availabilities in the region. Irrigation and nitrogen (N) fertilization have been used widely to enhance potato yield but result in negative environmental impacts in the APE. This stu...

Supplemental Materials Title：Optimizing irrigation and nitrogen management for potato production in the agro-pastoral ecotone in North China

Crop phenology exerts measurable impacts on soil surface properties, biophysical processes and climate feedbacks, particularly at local or regional scales. Nevertheless, the response of surface biophysical processes to climate feedbacks as affected by sowing date in winter wheat croplands has been overlooked, especially during winter dormancy. The...

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is the fourth food crop around the world, following maize, wheat and rice. Potato production is of significance for ensuring national food security. Potato growth models have been used widely in narrowing potato yield gap, enhancing water and nitrogen use efficiency, adapting to climate change, and optimizing agronomic...

The land cover and management changes have strong feedbacks to climate through surface biophysical and biochemical processes. Agricultural phenology dynamic exerted measurable impacts on land surface properties, biophysical process and climate feedback in particular times at local/regional scale. But the responses of climate feedback through surfac...

The land surface characteristic influences climatic environments by controlling the land surface energy and water fluxes. Although large progresses have been made in coupling detailed crop models into land surface models, there is much room left for improved estimates of surface fluxes in double cropping system, such as the winter wheat (Triticum a...

Understanding sources of uncertainty in climate–crop modelling is critical for informing adaptation strategies for cropping systems. An understanding of the major sources of uncertainty in yield change is needed to develop strategies to reduce the total uncertainty. Here, we simulated rain-fed wheat cropping at four representative locations in Chin...

Future extreme climate events will become more intense and frequent with global warming, which is a great threat to wheat productivity in the North China Plain (NCP). Projecting future changes in extreme climate events is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to climate variation. In this study, we calculated 11 extreme c...

Investigating how climate affects multiple consecutive crop growth stages is helpful to provide guidance for adopting appropriate agronomic practices. Based on the observed data from 51 agro-meteorological stations across China during 1981–2010, we qualified the spatio-temporal variability of eight consecutive phenological stages of rice [sowing (S...

Recurring drought has caused large crop yield losses in Australia during past decades. Long-term drought forecasting is of great importance for the development of risk management strategies. Recently, large-scale climate drivers (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation) have been demonstrated as useful in the application of drought forecasting. Machine l...

Global food production to meet growing demand is facing serious challenges from changing climate. Efficient adaptation is an important approach for mitigating the effects of changing climate on crop production and secure food supply in the future. Maize is a critically important source of food, feed and fuel, and is highly vulnerable to warming cli...

Early and reliable seasonal crop yield forecasts are crucial for both farmers and decision-makers. Commonly-used methods for seasonal yield forecasting are based on process-based crop models or statistical regression-based models. Both have limitations, particularly in regard to accounting for growth stage-specific climate extremes (such as drought...

Climate change has had a considerable impact on potato production in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone (APE) in North China over the past several decades and it will continue to influence the growth of potato. Thus, understanding the impact of climate change on potato production is critical for future food security in this region. In this study, the calibrated...

Understanding the impacts of climate change on potato production is critical for future food security in agro-pastoral ecotone (APE) of North China. In this study, the APSIM-Potato model was calibrated and validated at Zhangbei (ZB) and Wuchuan (WC) stations by using filed experimental data. At Zhangbei a long-term (2011–2017) experiment was conduc...

Climate warming has and will continue to exert a significantly impact on crop phenology in the past and coming decades. Combining observed data of phenology and a crop growth model provides a good approach for quantitating the effects of climate warming and crop management on crop phenology. The purpose of this study is to determine the impacts of...

Multi-model ensemble climate projections in combination with crop models are increasingly used to assess the impact of future climate change on agricultural systems. In this study, we used a biophysical process-oriented CERES-Rice crop model driven by downscaled future climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios:...

Climate change would exert significantly impact on crop yield by altering crop growth and development processes. Therefore, to ensure food security, it is necessary to assess the response and adaptation of crop phenology to the natural (mainly climate change) and artificial (including sowing date (SD) change and cultivar shift) factors. In this stu...

Climate change with warming as the main characteristic has important influence on crop phenology. Rising temperature usually leads to faster crop growth and shortened growth period that causes loss of crop yield, which is not conducive to agricultural development. Meanwhile, crop phenological changes can reflect climate change directly or indirectl...

North China Plain is the important grain production base in China, and the status in the national food industry is very high. However, long-term irrigation has caused heavy losses of groundwater resources in North China Plain, and then groundwater level continues to decline. Crop model can simulate crop growth in a variety of simulation scenarios b...

As an essential part of terrestrial ecosystems, farmland plays a critical role in the carbon cycle. The spatial and temporal characterization of farmland biomass and carbon sequestration capacity is important to understand the carbon cycle of a farmland system. The study area is located in mid-south Hebei Province (MSHP), which is a food production...

With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)–...

The North China Plain (NCP) has a severe water shortage. About 70% groundwater has been exploited for irrigation. Winter wheat-summer maize and pears are typical representative cereal crops and commercial fruit trees in this area, respectively. Water budget for the typical cropland and orchard ecosystems has a significant importance for agricultura...

Figure S1. Changes in monthly mean daily radiation (Rad) for the 40S (2031-2060) and 80S (2071-2100) with baseline (1981-2010) periods under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 conditions. Figure S2. Changes in monthly daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for the 40S (2031-2060) and 80S (2071-2100) with baseline (1981-2010) periods under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 conditions.

As climate change could significantly exert impacts on crop growth and productivity, sowing date adjustment is a critical measure to mitigate and adapt to the climate change. Thus, in this study, field-observed experiments at six stations in the Northern China (NC) are used in combination with the APSIM–Wheat model to assess the impact of climate v...

Irrigation of the conventional double cropping system of winter wheat and summer maize has caused serious problems regarding water resources and the environment on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plain (HP), China. Reducing or replacing high water consumption crops (such as winter wheat) is the most impactful way to effectively save water in the HP regio...

Excessive use of groundwater in irrigation (mainly for production of winter wheat) in the North China Plain (NCP) has resulted in markedly decreased groundwater levels. Alternative cropping systems may have potential to reduce groundwater use in the region. The APSIM (Agricultural Production System Simulator) farming systems model was used to simul...

The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hyd...

A_S_2016_Scientific Reports_Supplementary Materials

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustmen...

Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) are used in combination with the Agricult...

Using the detailed field experiment data from 1981 to 2009 at four representative agro-meteorological experiment stations in China, along with the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) rice-wheat model, we evaluated the impact of sowing/transplanting date on phenology and yield of rice-wheat rotation system (RWRS). We also disentangled t...

Most studies do not consider the potential variation in carbon concentration among the different tree components of the same species in regional scale. This study examined the carbon concentrations of the components (i.e., foliage, branch, stem, and root) in a 10-year-old poplar species (Populus davidiana Dode) from the Desertification Combating Pr...

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat (Triticum...

The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental...

The long-term field experiment data at four representative agro-meteorological stations, together with a crop simulation model, were used to disentangle the contributions of climate change, variety renewal, and fertilization management to rice yield change in the past three decades. We found that during 1981–2009 varieties renewal increased rice yi...

The rapid and accurate estimation of soil loss by wind erosion still remains challenge. This study presents an improved scheme for estimating the soil loss by wind erosion of farmland. The method estimates the soil loss by wind erosion based on a comparison of the relative contents of erodible and non-erodible particles between the surface and sub-...

As climate change could significantly influence crop phenology and subsequent crop yield, adaptation is a critical mitigation process of the vulnerability of crop growth and production to climate change. Thus, to ensure crop production and food security, there is the need for research on the natural (shifts in crop growth periods) and artificial (s...

The Simple Biosphere Model (SiB2) and the 2 × 2 km resolution National Land use/Land Cover database were used to investigate the effects of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) on land surface energy balance and climate in Jilin Province, northeast China, from 1990 to 2005. The spatial patterns of the components of surface energy balance (i.e., net radiati...

Estimations were performed using improved particle-size distribution comparison method for the severe wind-erosion event in 2014 for the principal farmland types in the Bashang area of Hebei Province. The results showed that the soil loss of farmland by wind erosion in the severe wind-erosion event was 0.35×106-4.11×106 kg/km2, average wind erosion...

As the main indicator for global change, ongoing climate warming has had significant impact on human life, including agricultural production for human consumption. Crop phonology and yield response to climate change has been critical in the study of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. This study used data from four typical agr...

Environmental influences upon energy balance in areas of different vegetation types (i.e., forest at Kog-Ma in Thailand and at Yakutsk in Russia, grassland at Amdo in Chinese Tibet and at Arvaikheer in Mongolia, and mixed farmland at Tak in Thailand) in the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment were investigated. The sites we investigated are geographical...

Based on the crop trial data during 1981-2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the northeastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management...

Weather and climate variability are predicted to impact food security by altering crop growth, phenology, and yield processes. Adaptation measures are critical for reducing future vulnerability of crop production to warming weather and climate variability. It is therefore vital to investigate the shifts in crop phenological processes in response to...

Climate change in the last three decades could have major impacts on crop phenological development and subsequently on crop productivity. In this study, trends in winter wheat phenology are investigated in 36 agro-meteorological stations in the North China Plain (NCP) for the period 1981-2009. The study shows that the dates of sowing (BBCH 00), eme...

Precipitation runoff is a critical hillslope hydrological process for downslope streamflow and piedmont/floodplain recharge. Shimen hillslope micro-catchment is strategically located in the central foothill region of Taihang Mountains, where runoff is crucial for water availability in the piedmont corridors and floodplains of north China. This stud...