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Bridging Energy Intensity for Lowering Carbon Footprint - Policy for a
Sustainable Environmental Management
Chittatosh Bhattacharya Nilotpal Banerjee
National Power Training Institute Department of Mechanical Engineering
Eastern Region, City Centre, National Institute of Technology
Durgapur 713216 Durgapur 713209
Abstact:
Economic advancement in current climate change scenario need to address two key concern of the
nation. An immediate action is vital for a long term sustainable carbon dioxide emission reduction
plan along gradual improvement of energy intensity over Indian industrial economy to pave the way
for national Energy Security. Energy intensive sectors of the Indian economy is still driven by
volumes of production rather than cost of production more focusing on the bottom line of profit.
Affordable, cost effective and less polluting energy availability can create sustainable, technically
feasible development, and changes in metal, mining, manufacturing, service industries, transport and
agricultural sectors to minimise the impact of climate change with less emission potential. Reliable
electricity and primary energy supply is key for growth and socio-economic development and in a
country like India the options of affordable fuels are more confined to bio-mass or coal, both in
domestic and industrial sectors.
With the deregulation of Indian Power sector since 90’s steam cycle coal thermal power
plants has experienced a rapid growth. This deregulated growth is primarily through the hands of
independent power producers (IPP) and CPSUs’. These power producers have promulgated both a
growth in new power production and a shift from coal to multi fuel fired conventional steam plants to
gas fired combined cycle power plants and the recent trend to go for high efficiency supercritical
technology as already envisaged by Ultra Mega Power Projects. But still the customers have no say
for a failure to supply power by the power distribution companies. There is no penalty for
unavailability of quality and contractual power supply, neither the customers are rewarded for
reducing their own consumption.
Bio-mass sourced from forestry, animal husbandry and agricultural residue is still a favourite low-cost
fuel option to rural India followed by abundant supply of coal as fuel in east, central, west and
southern parts of India. Coal is predominantly available primary energy resource other than untapped
resource of thorium and annually available solar radiation. At the same time, there is a growing belief
that the use of fossil fuel and the consequent release of greenhouse gases are mainly responsible for
the observed global warming trend. Hence there is a challenge ahead for adapting new efficient
technological input for clean, alternative energy for replacing or minimising the use of the fossil fuels
and promoting energy efficient appliances and processes to elevate end use efficiency. As such,
increasing users’ end power cost, decreasing fuel quality and tightening global and national
environmental standards are putting pressure to adopt advance environment friendly technologies to
push a low carbon economy, together with renewable and advanced nuclear technologies, such that
environment friendly clean and green energy is available for the well-being of the present and to
sustain the need of future generations.
Coal is fuelling about 56% of electricity generated in the country and at a consumption
growth rate of 5%; it can sustain estimated domestic need till 2050. Therefore, India’s choice of
energy security particularly the electric power demand is only achievable with advanced coal and
alternative energy utilisation technologies with a reduced carbon footprint for the country. After all,
we need to have a clear sky initiative to visualise the appearance of rainbow in the horizon, once
again!!
Introduction:
Total population of India in 2006 was 1.1 billion and likely to be 1.2 billion in 2011 and
expected to be stabilised at 1.6 billion in 2050. Its population is just next to China in the world with
1/6
th
of the globe.
Total land area is 32.88 million ha (2.3% of world land area) and seventh largest in the
globe. This constitutes 11.7% of world’s arable area (2
nd
largest agriculture area in the world) and
having 95 million ha irrigated land cover (highest in the world with 21.8% of world’s irrigated land
cover).Withdrawal of water is mostly as groundwater or fresh surface water (5% of world’s
freshwater resources).
The total forest cover is 76.87 million ha (23.4% of total land area) which is 10
th
most
forested nation in the globe. This forest cover is enough to neutralise 9.31% of our total annual
emissions of 2000 and balance 6.5% of estimated emission in 2010.
Total utilisable surface water available is 690 km
3
and utilizable ground water is 396 km
3
.
Total annual water availability is 1112 billion m
3
. The estimated annual water requirement based on
projected population growth with national average consumption would be 694-710 billion m
3
in 2010;
784-843 billion m
3
in 2025 and 973 – 1180 billion m
3
in 2050. Almost 80 per cent of the rainfall
occurs during the monsoon period. Further, there is considerable variation in the rainfall from one
region to another. The average annual rainfall of India is about 1,170 millimetres; but it varies from
less than 100 millimetres in the western part of Rajasthan to over 10,000 millimetres near Cherapunji
in Meghalaya. The flow in peninsular rivers are dependant mostly on annual rainfall.
During 1950 to 2002, Irrigation poten tial has increased from 22 to 95 million hectare and
food production from 50 to 200 million tons.
With projected population growth, food grains
requirement will be 450 million tons by 2050, For which irrigation potential has to be increased to
160 million hectares (Maximum irrigation potential possible from conventional projects – 140 M ha
). The irrigation component of Bharat Nirman aimed at creation of additional irrigation potential of 10
million hectare (Mha) in four years from 2005-06 to 2008-09 to sustain national food security plan.
Most of the river basins in India will be deficit by 2025 i.e. per capita availability will reduce to less
than 1,000 m
3
which may advance for Himalayan snow-fed rivers with increment of Global warming
rate. Total CO
2
emission from India in 2006 was 1510 million tons CO
2
eq. (ORNL- USA). It
ranks 3rd in emission with 1342 MT CO
2
eq. average emission per year since 2005. But India’s total
emission contribution stands around 4% compared to more than 16% each by US and China of total
global emission. However on per capita basis it stands at 140
th
position with 1.9 tons/person/year with
worldwide average 5.6 tons/person/year (UNDP Human Dev. Report :2007-08).The current report
suggests per capita emission in India stands at 1.1 tons/person/year compared to 20+ tons from US
and 10+ tons from most of the OECD countries. The global emission from fossil fuel burning in 2005
was 27136 Mt of CO
2
eq. and India’s share was 1147.46 Mt. Again, the fossil fuelled sectors account
for around 61 per cent of total national emissions (as on 2004) followed by agriculture sector (28% of
total emission as estimated by MoEF in 1994). For fossil fuels, coal combustion had a dominant share
of emissions, amounting to around 64 per cent of all fossil-fuelled energy emissions (as on 2004). In
2004-05 total power generation in India was 590158 GWh resulting to equiv. CO
2
emission of
462,192,140 MT. [CEA, 2006].
Fossil fuels account for 80% of global primary energy consumption. 35% and 24% of world’s
consumption is sourced from oil and coal respectively (2007). The global total primary energy
supply and consumption was 11433.92 Mtoe and 7911.7 Mtoe respectively in 2005. Fossil fuels
account for 68% of energy consumption in India; coal and oil supply 37% and 25% of total energy
consumption followed by 30% from biomass resources. India’s total domestic energy production in
2005 was 419.04 Mtoe supplemented with equivalent energy import of 121.6 Mtoe, amounting total
primary energy supply of 537.31 Mtoe (4.7% of world’s TPES) which grew at a compound rate of
3.4% since independence. The electricity consumption in 2005 was 525.93 TWh (3.1% of world’s
electricity consumption). As predicted, India is the 3
rd
largest energy consumer in the world. The
demand for primary energy will increase to 1,836Mtoe to meet the projected GDP growth of 8% per
annum by 2031-2032, (4 x demand of 2003-04). The share of commercial energy grew from 28% in
1950 to 70% in 2004 as a result of industrial growth. Commercial energy requirements would also be
around 1,651Mtoe by 2031-32 (5 times of 2003-04).
The annual per capita total primary energy supply in India was (27% of world’s average)
only 490 kgoe (compared to 1320 kgoe in China and the world average of 1,780 kgoe.) in 2005 with
480 kWh/per person (compared to 1802 kWh in China and the world average of 2596 kWh)
electricity consumption along 1.05 tons of CO
2
eq. emission per person (compared to 3.89 tons in
China and the world average of 4.22 tons) from fossil fuel burning.
Around 86 % of rural households and more than 20 % of urban households still primarily rely
on traditional fuels like firewood, wood chips or dung cakes, to meet their cooking needs. Only 5%
and 2.7 % of rural households use LPG and kerosene respectively as a primary cooking fuel whereas
44 % and 22 % of urban households uses LPG and kerosene respectively (NSS -200 & NEP -2006).
Still we have a large size population today of about 27.5 %, who live below the poverty line.
India pays one of the highest prices for energy in purchasing power parity terms.(Average
cost of electricity supply – Rs. 2.76 / kWh and realization Rs.2.27/kWh in 2006-07 – PFC Report and
corresponding US average retail price of electricity in 2006-07 was US $ 0.09 / kWh).
India is 4
th
largest in terms of Gross Domestic Products of 33 trillion Rupees (728 billion
US$) in 2006. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices in the year
2008-09 is likely to attain a level of 33.52 trillion Rupees as estimated by Central Statistical
Organization(GoI). GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2008-09 is likely to attain a level of
49.9 trillion Rupees. The estimated GDP growth rate is 7.1% (2008-09) against 9% in 2007-08.
India’s installed power generation capacity is 1,52,148.41 MW (as on 31.8.09). The
average plant load factor is 79.7% (upto June 2009-10) i.e. only about 121,250 MW of electricity gets
generated. About 27 GW of new capacity was added in 10
th
Plan and about 69 GW is planned for the
11th Plan (2007-12) (CEA, 2007). In 2005, 480TWh out of 699 TWh electricity was generated from
fossil fuel in India making it 3
rd
in the world on fossil fuelled power generation and 5
th
in terms of
total electricity generation. [IEA Key Energy Statistics 2007] However, the all India average power
supply deficit is at 13.8% (June, 09); the supply shortage runs from a minimum 5.9% (Eastern
Region) to maximum of 16.7% in Northern Region during 2009-10.
100% village electri fication is planned by 2009-10 with a budgetory allocation of Rs.7000
crores. Total villages in India are 587,258. Overall 493,240 or about 83.1% of the inhabited villages in
India have been electrified and pump sets energised (as on 31.05. 2009) is 15989251 numbers
(81.6%). Electrification of villages and providing connections free of charge to 60,04,334 Below
Poverty Line (BPL) families till 15.5.2009 has been completed. Estimated 25,000 villages will be not
connected to a grid. 5453 villages are connected through stand alone renewable energy systems (as on
30.6.09).
The proven reserve in the all ranks of coals in the world is 909,064 Million Tonnes (MT) in
2004,which can be lasted for another 200 years at current rate of production [World Coal Institute,
2005]. India ranks sixth in the world in terms of coal reserves with 2.7% of total world reserves and in
terms of coal production, India ranks third amongst the coal producing countries of the world behind
China and the United States, producing some 360 million tonnes at present. The coal reserve of India
up to the depth of 1200 meters has been estimated by GSI at 253.3 BT as on 01.01.2006 (including
non - coking variety of 221.2 BT). This includes proven reserve of 95.9 BT, which is about 10% of
worldwide proven reserve. About 62.6% of the proven reserve is of non- coking variety and 77% of
the proven reserve exists within 300 meters depth. Besides, Lignite reserve in the country amounts to
36009 MT. The demand for coal is rising at about 4.5 per cent per annum. If the domestic coal
production continues to grow at 5% per year, the total coal reserve would run out in around 40 years.
According to the reports of CIL, the demand of coal (on all India basis) for power sector (utilities &
captives) for the year 2006-07 was 345.4 million tons(MT) against the overall domestic coal
consumption of 302 MT and an overall all sector demand of 427 MT. Coal consumption for power
generation during 2007-08 and 2008-09 were 330 MT and 355 MT only. It is expected to grow to 500
MT by 2011-12 and to 915 MT by 2024-25 at a GDP growth of 8%. Even coal imports are likely to
be doubled from 40 MT in 2005-06 to 70 MT by 2009-10. By 2031-32, power generation capacity
would have to increase to 778095 MWe and annual coal requirement would be 2040 MT, if we do not
take any measures to reduce requirement. The annual global power generation in 2005 was 18235
TWh and that in India was 3.8% of total global power generation amounting 699 TWh. In the same
year, coal contributed about 40.3% of total global power generation amounting 7351 TWh out of
which 480 TWh is generated in India. A big impediment to increasing production of coal is that the
mining areas are largely located in the vast remaining forests of the country. In-situ coal gasification
can increase India’s available energy from domestic resources significantly. This is so because in-situ
coal gasification can tap energy from coal reserves that cannot be extracted economically based on
available open cast/underground extraction technologies.
Country’s net oil reserve stood at 739 MMT (balance recoverable as on 01.4.05) as India’s
net oil imports to the total oil consumed growing from 57% in 1997 to a projected 85% in 2010
scaling up farther to 92% in 2020 and about 45% of the export earnings are funnelled back into
importing oil. Our own reserve can sustain only 5+ years supply at current level of consumption.
More than Rs. 1717 billion (US$ 39 billion) was spent for oil import in 2006. As on 2005, it is the
sixth largest importer of crude oil with 99MT (70% of the domestic consumption). Studies have
indicated that a sustained 5% rise in the oil prices over a year (which is rather more than this every
year) would slash India’s GDP growth rate by 0.25% and raise the inflation rate by 0.6%.
Natural Gas accounted for 26.1% of world’s commercial energy consumption in 2005. At
current production rate, reserves of gas will last about 64 years. India has an estimated reserve of
about 923 billion std. m
3
of natural gas (as on 01.4.05) excluding the recent KG basin storage of
Reliance Energy Ltd. Demand for natural gas, which stood at 0.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 1995 had
reached 0.9 tcf by 2002 and is expected to touch 1.2 tcf by 2010 and 1.6 tcf by 2015. The projected
demand of natural gas in India by 2020 stands at a staggering 400 million std m
3
per day. Domestic
sources of supply met over 90% of demand as late as 2003. At present 6% of total energy
consumption in India is catered by natural gas.
India has a vast potential of 6.38x1010 m
3
of biogas per annum from 980 million tons of
cattle dung produced from a cattle population of about 290 Million (1997, Livestock Sensus).
According to the estimate of National Biogas and Manure Management Program, till March 2009, 4.1
million family biogas plants has been installed in the capacity of 1-6 m
3
/ day which has potential for
12 million family biogas plants. It results in an estimated savings of 4.1 million tonns of fuelwood per
year and about 0.96 million tons enriched organic manure is being produced from this. Besides, over
4.1 million m
3
per day biogas is produced quivalent to a daily supply of 2.5 million m
3
of natural gas.
A systematic enrichment and collection process with technology upgradation can save lot of
CNG/LPG with introduction of biogass as bio-CNG beside methane emission reduction program
under climate control mission.
The total peak energy supply capacity through renewable energy resources like wind, solar,
biomass, waste energy recovery and SHP (upto 25 MWe) amounts to 14772.53 MW for grid
interactive system along 370MW equivalent from captive/CHP/distributed renewable power
generation system contributing altogether 15142.53 MWe green power (10% of installed power
generation capacity) beside 36916.76MW (24.6% of installed power generation capacity)
hydroelectric power generation installed capacity (above 25 MWe SHP capacity). Therefore, India’s
share of green and carbon neutral power generation capacity stands at more than 1/3
rd
of total installed
capacity. But, actual power supply contribution from these resources along nuclear stands merely at
about 12% of total consumption at users end.
Annual Average Solar Radiation over India 1200 – 2300 kWh/m
2
with average 1900 kWh/m
2
for maximum part of India with 300 clear sunny days. The area required to meet India’s electricity
demand (777 billion Units in 2008-09) with solar photovoltaic (at a minimum efficiency of 10%) is
about 3750 sq.km (50 km by 75 km) which is 0.12% of the land area of the country. At present grid
interactive solar photovoltaic power generation capacity is 2.12 MW along decentralised solar
photovoltaic power plants running with total capacity of 8.01 MW
p
. A Rs 91,684 crore solar energy
plan has already deliberated in PM’s Climate change Action Plan.
India ranks 4
th
in World in Wind power Generation. The annual generation from wind
increased from 113.6 GWh in 1991 to 2929 GWh in 2003 (growth rate of 31% per year). The installed
capacity of wind increased from 41MW in 1992 to 9344 MW in June 2009 (about 6.2 % of installed
power generation capacity).The estimated potential of grid interactive wind power generation is
45195 MW (assuming 1% land availability in potential areas). However, technical wind power
generation potential is 13,000 MW (assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas) but a large
volume of off-shore wind power generation potential is not yet assessed and remained untapped. The
wind speed in Indian subcontinent is also quite low (~ 200 W/m
2
) compared to average wind speed in
Europe and US (~ 350 W/m
2
). As such, the average capacity utilization of wind power stands around
17%.
India’s total hydroelectric power generation potential is estimated at 150000 MWe.
However, the present generation capacity of hydroelectric power is 39371.43 MWe (26.2% of total
installed power generating capacity). 78% of hydroelectric potential is still untapped due to R&R,
high gestation period, environmental issues, relationship with neighbouring countries and capital
intensive projects. The average capacity utilization of installed hydroelectric power generation stands
around 60%. A total 18275 MWe installed capacity generating 45% of total hydroelectric power are
of run-of- river projects attached with 32 rain fed water reservoirs. The storage position of water in
these reservoir (as on 30.6.09) indicate a shortfall of generation by 0.5% of total power generation
target of 689.5 BU for the current year.
The average wave energy potential along the Indian coast is around 5–10 kW/m. India has a
coastline of approximately 7500 km. Even a 10% utilization would mean a resource of 3750–
7500MW. However though prototypes have been built and some operating experience obtained, this
is not yet a fully commercially available technology. The geothermal power resources have been
mapped by the Geological Survey of India, who estimates the geothermal power generation potential
to be of the order of 10,000MW. Most of the current usage of geothermal energy is for direct use for
bathing and swimming. Certain estimate suggests an equivalent installed capacity of 203MW
(thermal) with an annual energy use of 1607 TJ/year with a capacity factor of 25%. The combined
tidal power potential in strategic locations of Gulf of Cutch, Gulf of Cambay and Durgaduani Creek
of Sundarban Delta has estimated at 8300 MWe. The first tidal power plant of 3.65 MWe capacity has
been installed in durgaduani Creek.
India ranked second in bio-fuelled power generation installed capacity in the world with
1870.83 MWe (as on 30.6.09). India being predominantly an agricultural country, the estimated
potential of grid connected biomass power generation capacity stands at 21881 MWe primarily from
agro-forest residue like woodchip, coconut shell and crop processing residue like rice husk, bagasse,
cotton plant residue etc. However, the average capacity utilization varied between 30-68% during
2008-09 owing to higher price available for biomass in other uses rather than power generation. A
decentralised biomass based power generation capacity building like 500 KW biomass Gassifier dual
fuel power generation system (70% biomass + 30% diesel) of Gosaba Island of Sudarban delta is need
of the hour for other Islands like Andaman & Nicober Islands and Lakshadweep Islands where total
installed generation of 60MWe and 10MWe respectively are through DG sets only. Subsequently, the
diesel can be replaced with bio-diesel along high density firewood plantation for dual fuel gassifiers.
According to current estimates, about 5000 MW of grid interactive carbon neutral bagasse-fired
cogeneration power can be generated from in the existing 553 sugar mills in the country. Around
1134.73 MW of bagasse-fired cogeneration power has already been commissioned (as on 30.6.09)
and more is under construction.For example, a bagasse fired cogeneration sytem with Rs.80 million
investment in 2004 of 22MW capacity has a surplus grid connected power of 15MW which sold 40
MU of power earning a revenue of Rs.125.3 million and getting a certified emission reduction
redemption for 0.0808 miilion tons of CO
2
. This is adding up more profitability of sugar industries
through CDM route. Country’s total boimass fired power generation (other than bagasse) stands at
683MW – 147 MW of which is in the state of Tamil Nadu. The Planning Commission has accepted a
biomass consumption figure of around 139 MMTOE
3
for 2001-2002, which accounts for around 31 %
of the total primary energy consumed in the country. Besides, total annual biomass availability as
estimated in 2005 stands at 200 million tons which if utilized with appropriate technology can replace
the coal consumption of 200 million tons which is sufficient to extend indigenous coal supply life by
minimum 25 years at the present rate of consumption of 650 million tons.
The share of Nuclear Power accounts for a meagre 4120 MWe – 2.7% of total installed
power generation capacity (as on 31.8.09) though nuclear power generation programme started 40
years before under the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE). Again the average PLF during 2009-10
(till 30.6.09) stands at 46.5%. the country only has 0.8 per cent of the world’s uranium reserves. The
major constraint being Uranium ore reserves that stands for only 10,000MWe for 40 years. Indian
uranium reserves are extremely low grade (0.1% ores compared to 12-14 % ores of international
supplies). India is having 5,00,000 Tonnes of thorium, roughly 1/3
rd
of the world’s reserve and future
energy security beyond 2050 may have to rely upon it with successful technology development.
3 Million Metric Ton Oil Equivalent
India is rated as one of the highest energy-intensive economies in the world. Energy intensity
is a measure of energy required by an economy to produce one unit of GDP growth and the lesser it is,
the more the country is developed. In 2005 India consumed 0.19 kgoe per dollar of GDP expressed in
purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. However, there are several countries in Europe who were at or
below 0.19kgoe with Brazil at 0.14 and Japan at 0.15. Thus, clearly there is room to improve to bring
down energy intensity significantly in India with current commercially available technologies.The
energy intensity of the Indian economy is nearly 2.88 times that of the developed countries and 1.5
times of world average. (Source IEA 2005). This means for producing the same quantity of output, the
consumption of energy in India is almost 3 times that of any developed country.
The growth rate of demand for power in developing countries is generally higher than that of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is expressed as elasticity ratio. In India, the elasticity ratio was
3.06 in the first Plan and peaked at 5.11 during third plan and came down to 1.65 in the Eighties. For
the Nineties, a ratio of around 1.5 was projected and presently during first decade of 21
st
century, it is
about 1.1 – 1.2 to sustain GDP growth more than 8% - that is essential for a radical change in Human
Development Index of the country. As such, in order to support a growth rate of GDP at about 7% per
annum, the rate of growth of power supply needs to be over 10% annually. It means a power
generation capacity addition of more than 10000 MWe/ year which has never been achieved so far
and China is adding up the same quantity at present within a month.
The Climate change Impacts:
Data from late 2008 indicates that CO
2
levels in the atmosphere now exceed 383 parts per
million by volume (ppmv) in 2007 from the pre-industrial concentration of about 280 ppmv. Despite
the increasing international sense of urgency, the growth rate of emissions continued to speed up at a
rate of 2 ppmv since 2000 or 33% faster than the previous 20 years (www.globalcarbonproject.com).
Recent model study indicates a median increase of 3.3°C in annual mean temperature by the
end of the 21st century; the projected minimum and maximum temperature rise is 2.0°C and 4.7°C,
respectively (IPCC, 2007). Temperatures have raised by 0.7 Celsius in the past century and the U.N.
Climate Panel projects further rises that will spur heat waves, droughts, floods, and would raise world
sea levels. For south Asia (Indian region), the IPCC has projected 0.5 to 1.2
o
C rise in temperature by
2020, 0.88 to 3.16
o
C by 2050 and 1.56 to 5.44
o
C by 2080, depending on the scenario of future
development (Table 1; IPCC 2007).Overall, the temperature increases are likely to be much higher in
winter (rabi) season than in rainy season (kharif). Precipitation is likely to increase in all time slices in
all months, except during December-February when it is likely to decrease. For the next two
decades,a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected. Even if all future emissions were stopped
now, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.
The global average of sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003
and about 3.1 mm during 1993 to 2003. IPCC recently synthesized all available global information on
this aspect in its earlier assessment at 14
th
Conference of Parties at Bali in December 2007, and
concluded that sea level will rise by 0.18 to 0.59 meters by 2100. Global warming has started
affecting the Indian coastline with statistics suggesting a rising trend of 2.5 mm/year in the sea level
in the region. By 2070, at this present level of sea level change India may be the second most
vulnerable country to face the coastal flooding possibly affecting 14 million people creating a huge
population of “environmental refugee”.
An impact analysis of climate change on agricultural yield was carried out and preliminary
calculations to quantify the decrease in production of wheat suggest a likely decrease of 4 to 5 million
tonnes with an increase of 1
o
C increase in temperature throughout the growing season.In a detailed
study of India, Kavi Kumar and Jyoti Parikh examined the impact on agricultural yields, output,
income and prices. They found that yield losses (without considering the carbon fertilisation effect)
for rice vary between 15 and 42 % and between 25 and 55 % for wheat for temperature increases of
2.5°C to 4.9°C. Correspondingly, GDP would drop by 1.8 to 3.4 % and agricultural, relative to non-
agricultural, prices would increase by 7 to 18%.
Of course, farmers can adapt by changing cropping patterns and input levels to reduce the
losses. But even with such adaptation, farmers’ losses would remain significant; with a temperature
change of +2°C and an accompanying precipitation change of +7 %, farm-level total net-revenue
would fall by 9%, whereas with a temperature increase of +3.5°C and precipitation change of +15%,
the fall in farm level total net-revenue would be nearly 25 % — up to a quarter of the crop output
could be lost. For India, these are very large changes, which could cause much human misery and turn
around food security. “From India’s point of view, a 2°C increase would be clearly intolerable” (Dr.
Kirit S. Parikh, Former Member – Energy, Planning Commission).
The GHG Emission Status :
According to EIA, United States, China, Russia, Japan and India together contributed 54% of
world’s total CO
2
emission. Though India is the fourth largest CO
2
emitter of the world (Table-7), it is
the only low-income country in the top ten. Although India is now the fourth largest emitter of CO
2
emissions worldwide, its total emissions in 2004 were still about 4.5 and 3.7 times smaller than U.S.
and China emissions, respectively contributing about 4% of global CO
2
emission. Total US emissions
were 7,122 million metric tons CO2-equivalent in 2004. Dividing by the US population of 299
million, this equals 23.8 metric tons of CO2-equivalent per person. (Source: Energy Information
Agency, US Census Bureau.) Moreover, India’s contribution to annual global emissions remained at
about 4.5% between 2000 and 2004; in contrast, China’s contribution increased from 13% in 2000 to
17% in 2004, while the U.S. contribution declined from 23% to 21% over the same time period
(Marland et al., 2007).The global trend for CO
2
emissions by the high-income countries far exceeds
the middle and lower income countries. In fact the high-income countries account for more than 71 %
of aggregate global CO
2
emissions while low-income countries account for only about 5 %. Thus,
going by incomes, the level of emissions for India is much beyond expectations. However, this is not
true for other possible determinants of CO
2
: For example India is the second most populated country
in the world and fourth largest in terms of GDP (PPP). These factors have obviously played an
important role in determining the quantum of emissions and overwhelmed the depressive influence of
lower per capita income.
India is constantly striving to enforce energy efficiency measures to improve its industrial
performance, thereby reducing its GHG emissions. Since 1995, the energy, power, and carbon
intensity of the Indian economy have all begun to decline (Chandler et al., 2002). Growth of India’s
energy-related CO2 emissions declined by nearly 111 million tons from 1990 to 2000 through policy
initiatives aimed at economic restructuring, enforcement of clean air laws, and renewable energy
programs (Chandler et al., 2002). In fact, India’s energy and carbon intensity are relatively low
compared with those of other major economies.[ Coal Initiative—Pew Center on Global Climate
Change, 2008].
Interestingly, there is enormous variation in the contribution of different countries in climate
change issue that faces the global community of nations, in terms of current, per capita and
cumulative GHG emissions. On a per capita basis, India’s carbon emissions in 2004 were only one-
sixteenth that of United States and one-third that of China. From a historical point of view, India has
contributed only minimally to the build-up of GHGs in the atmosphere; India’s cumulative emissions
from 1850 to 2003 are only 2 % of total global emissions in this time period, in contrast to 30 % for
the United States. Furthermore, India’s per capita GDP (in terms of Purchasing Power Parity) was
$2750 in 2007, approximately one-sixteenth that of the United States and about half that of China.
Hence, it is clear that India’s contribution to climate change and its economic status are very much
different from those of industrialized countries, and from those of China. India has already expressed
her deep concern over the emissions of Annex I countries that have been steadily increasing since
2000, contrary to the provisions of the UNFCC Convention. UNFCCC data reveals that total Annex I
emissions rose from 17,719 Tg CO2 equivalent in 2000 to 18, 182 Tg CO2 equivalent in 2005.
Outlined Policy Options:
From Table – 1 we can find that even in 2031-32 our total primary energy supply will reach
the global average supply in 2005. It is interesting to note from table 2 and table 7 the fact that
India’s per capita requirement and consumption of energy in its various forms in 2004 was well below
that of developed countries and the world average in 2003. Even in 2031, the per capita consumption
in India from various sources of energy will be well below the 2003 level of per capita consumption
in respect to developed countries. In fact, even at projected levels of energy consumption in 2031,
India’s total primary energy supply on a per capita basis will remain well below the 2005 world
average. From above, it is needless to mention that coal is the cheapest prime energy resource in the
world (Table 4 & Fig19) and will be so for coming decades. India could also import 250 to 500 MT of
superior coal to reduce local coal requirement by some 375 to 750 MT per annum as there is a
growing deficit in demand and supply (Fig 3 & 4) and limited coal production capacity growth. There
is a steady growth in power generation capacity (Fig. 15 & 17) though never exceeding the electricity
demand of the country (Fig.16 &20). The improvement in generation capacity addition predominantly
focussed on Coal and will continue so till 2030-31(Table 3 & Fig.1&5).There is a remarkable gap
between planned capacity addition program with actual achievements in power sector (Table 11 &
Fig. 7).In fact the state sectors having almost 50% of total generating capacity are worst performer in
terms of PLF (Fig.2, 10 &13). The past, present and estimated growth of per capita electricity
consumption (Fig.8, 9&18) to minimise the present peak shortfall along energy requirement and
availability at users’ end ( Fig.12, 14 & 16) calls for better techno-economic analysis of capacity
utilization by adopting better fossil fuel energy exploitation technology like Clean Coal Technologies
along emission abatement strategies of existing facilities with removal of barriers in power transfer to
demanding customers through “open access”. Electricity is already transformed into a market
commodity with introduction of Indian Electricity Act – 2003. The region wise loss in generation is
quite considerable and provide scope for improvement (Table -9). Therefore, Thermal sector need to
more cautious in capacity utilization with evident near future emission penalties (Table – 8 & 10) that
will depreciate the profitability even of other industries. The aggregate transmission & commercial
losses (Fig. 21) that accounts 1/4
th
of the energy input to grid is a National wastage of energy
resources that eat away the profitability. Therefore, the policy goals and concepts will have to be
shifted from “energy conservation” to “energy efficiency”, and from “energy inputs” to the
“effectiveness of energy use” and “energy services”, so that the cost of primary energy resources
availability to the rural India remain affordable and emission penalty burden on the country never
cross the path of sustainable development of our future generation.
Conclusion:
Demand of affordable and quality energy for diverse requirements is a right to every
citizen of India. But, there is a lack in awareness in actual and possible energy utilization in
measurable, quantifiable and verifiable way from various resources at consumer’s end. Neither their is
a national industry wise standard Energy consumption guideline nor Indian industry wise database is
available to benchmark the actual energy input/ consumption per unit of product or service output
from Indian industries, though it was initiated way back in 2001 with the National Energy
Conservation Act.
Therefore, there is an immediate need for Indian energy intensive industries to go for energy
auditing and source part of their energy demand by waste energy utilization, energy recovery projects
and supplement the renewable with a very attractive payback period for a better “carbon footprint”. At
this crucial juncture of 15
th
Conference of Parties of UNFCCC scheduled in December 2009, at
Copenhagen to “seal the deal” on climate change stabilization, India has a massive pressure to balance
its enviable growth with consequent emission which may perhaps trigger industrial sector wise energy
rationing . The way outs are very limited without active role of Indian industries in their energy
efficiency capacity utilization and energy waste minimization along fuel switching for an ultimate
dream of “carbon neutral Economy”.
Note: A ‘carbon footprint’ is the total amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, emitted over the
full life cycle of a process or product. It is expressed as grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour of
generation (gCO2eq/kWh). Carbon footprints are calculated using a method called life cycle
assessment (LCA), and is also referred to as the ‘cradle-to-grave’ approach. Tata Sons is a member of
the Global Leadership and Technology Exchange (GLTE), a business consortium set up by Xynteo,
the Anglo-Scandinavian advisory group, to facilitate the creation of growth solutions for the low
carbon economy that focusing on Combating Climate Change (3C initiative).
Tables & Figures:
Table 1: Projections for Total Commercial Energy & Electricity Requirements [Planning Commission – 2006, MOP : CEA :
2005-06]
Table 2: Per Capita Energy Requirements in Selected Countries (2032)
TPES
(kgoe)
Electricity
Consn (kWh)
Oil
(kgoe)
Gas
(Cu.m.)
Coal (Kgs.)
Nuclear
(kWh)
Hydro
(kWh)
India 2004
304
585
110
29
257@ (375)
16
69
India 2032 (projected @ 8%
GDP growth)
1112
2643
296
170
927@ (1390)
300
341
World Average (2003)
1688
2429
635
538
740
403
423
OECD (2003) 4668 8044 2099 1144 1651 1924 1076
U.S.A. (2003)
7840
13066
3426
2176
3410
2624
948
China (2003)
1090
1379
213
32
1073
32
215
South Korea (2003)
4272
7007
2264
627
1541
2570
101
Japan (2003)
4056
7816
2146
845
1247
1859
816
@ Per capita coal consumption of India has been estimated based on the calorific value of hard coal used internationally
with a calorific value of 6000 kcal/kg to maintain uniformity. The figures in brackets are actual per capita consumption
based on calorific value of Indian coal i.e. 4000 kcal/kg. Source: IEA (International Energy Agency - 2005)
Table : 3- Sources of electricity generation – Year: 2004 – 32 (Projected with base year 2003-04)
Table – 4: The past and the future pricing of Table – 5 : CO2 emission by top ten nation , 2003
Key commercial Energy Sources of World Source - Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States
Year / Pricing
@ US$- 2007 Crude
Oil Natural
Gas Coal Electricity
1980 14.74 3.43 2.43 30.51
1985 8.84 4.17 1.98 32.40
1990 6.22 2.44 1.46 28.24
1995 4.13 1.96 1.15 26.23
2000
6.25
4.30
0.95
23.88
2005 10.31 7.55 1.23 25.26
2007
*
( Year of analysis)
12.47
6.22
1.25
26.79
2010 13.48 6.07 1.44 26.28
2015
19.02
7.04
1.43
26.51
2020 20.00 8.48 1.39 27.55
2025
21.01
9.81
1.42
28.82
2030 22.57 11.84 1.45 30.64
Per Million BTU of Energy Source –
IEA (February , 2009)
Year
(Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent)
Installed Capacity (MW)
Projected Peak Demand (M.W.)
Populati
on in
millions
GDP (Rs. In Crore
@ 1993-94 prices)
TPES(mtoe)
GDP Growth Rate
GDP Growth Rate
7%
8%
7%
8%
@ 7% GDP
@ 8% GDP
7%
8%
2006-07
1114
1751019
1783901
375
381
140500
140500
1
04843
106945
2011-12
1197
2455891
2621137
483
508
197060
206440
148710
158274(*152746)
2016-17
1275
3444520
3851310
625
684
276385
303330
204052
225932(*218209)
2021-22
1347
4831117
5658837
797
901
387645
445690
280332
322896(*298253)
2026-27
1411
6775892
8314688
1051
1234
543690
654865
365459
437051
2031-32
1468
9503539
12217005
1344
1633
762555
962210
476843
591650
Energy requirement at bus bar is estimated assuming 6.5% auxiliary consumption. Peak demand is estimated assuming load factor of 76%
up to 2010-11, 72% for 2011-12 to 2020-21 and 70% for 2021-22 and beyond.(*17th Electric Power Survey Report, 2007)
Table :7- Total Per Capita annual Primary Energy Consumption Projection (2004 to 2032)
Table – 8 : Most Polluting Coal Power Generating Plants in India – source www.carma.org, 2008
Organisation TPS Name CO2 -
2007(MT)
CO2 - Next
decade
Energy-
2007
Energy- next
decade
Intensity- 2007
Lbs of CO2/MWe
Intensity-
Next decade
NTPC LTD TALCHER Kaniha
STPS 23.4 24.1 22.4 23.0 2093.819 2089.205
NTPC LTD RAMAGUNDAM 21.4 21.7 20.0 20.3 2147.934 2145.322
N. L. CORP
LTD NEYVELI 20.5 25.6 19.1 24.2 2156.572 2112.91
NTPC LTD VINDHYACHAL 20.2 30.6 18.8 29.9 2145.784 2050.515
MAHA GEN
CO CHANDRAPUR 19.0 24.0 17.5 22.6 2172.071 2125.597
NTPC LTD
SINGRAULI
16.5
16.7
15.0
15.2
2200.747
2198.557
NTPC LTD KORBA STPS 16.4 21.1 15.5 20.3 2113.832 2082.973
NTPC LTD
RIHAND
15.9
25.7
15.1
25.0
2107.291
2053.673
CO2 – Annual emission in Million (U.S.) short Tons : MT, Energy – Annual generation (Million MWe)
Energy Intensity – Lbs of CO2 emitted per MWe generation.
Table-9:Region wise loss of generation for long duration outages (> 25 days) as % of all India forced outages loss in 2006 -07
Region
Northern
Western
Southern
Eastern
North-
Eastern
All India
%Loss due to long duration forced outages
4.76%
9.41%
5.24%
17.63%
4.41%
41.44%
Plant Load Factor, Opr. Availability, Forced Outage and Planned Maintenance of different Capacity Groups of 110 MW and above
CAPACITY PM(%) FO(%) Op.Av.(%) PLF(%)
500 MW
7.75
4.89
87.36
84.91
250 MW 4.05 2.15 93.81 93.75
200/210 MW 5.72 5.40 88.88 82.43
140 / 150 MW
5.16
20.11
74.72
53.52
120 MW 6.10 26.78 67.12 46.84
110 MW
21.04
14.66
64.29
55.82
ALL INDIA 8.43 7.85 83.72 77.03
Table –
6: Comparative Electrical Power Consumption in 2001 Source : IEA Report 2003
Country
Area
(thousand sq km)
Population
(million)
Per Capita
Total energy Kgoe*
Consumption Electrical Energy
KWh 2001
Brazil
8512
159.2
718
1783
Mauritius
2 1
387
906
Japan
378
125.2
3856
7281
France
552
58.1
4042
7126
Pakistan
796
129.9
254
416
Germany
357
81.9
4128
6513
UK
245
58.5
3772
5843
Egypt
57.8
100.1
600
787
India
3288
929.4
248
340
China
9561
1200.2
664
719
N. America**
9364
263.1
7819
8747
Australia
84
8.1
5341
6606
Singapore
1 3
8103
6770
TPES
(kgoe)
Electricity
Consumption(kWh)
Oil
(kgoe)
Gas
(Cu.m.)
Coal (Kgs.)
Nuclear
(kWh)
Hydro
(kWh)
India 2004
304
585
110
29
257@ (375)
16
69
India 2032 (projected @ 8%
GDP growth)
1112
2643
296
170
927@ (1390)
300
341
World Average (2003)
1688
2429
635
538
740
403
423
OECD (2003)
4668
8044
2099
1144
1651
1924
1076
U.S.A. (2003)
7840
13066
3426
2176
3410
2624
948
China (2003)
1090
1379
213
32
1073
32
215
South Korea (2003)
4272
7007
2264
627
1541
2570
101
Japan (2003)
4056
7816
2146
845
1247
1859
816
@ Per capita coal consumption of India has been estimated based on the calorific value of hard coal used internationally with a
calorific value of 6000 kcal/kg to maintain uniformity. The figures in
brackets are actual per capita consumption based on calorific
value of Indian coal i.e. 4000 kcal/kg. Source: IEA (International Energy Agency - 2005)
Compared to corresponding period of the preceding year. The electricity generation target for the year 2008-09 fixed at 774.34 BU
comprising of 631.27 BU thermal; 118.450 BU hydro; 19.00 BU nuclear; and 5.624 BU import from Bhutan
Improvement in the plant load factor over the years 2002-03 to 2008-09 : 72.1 to 77.2
Source : Central Electricity Authority, General Review 2007; Electricity data 2006-07 & CEA Annual Report 2008
Table – 10 : Total Emissions from the Power Sector by region for FY 2000-01 to 2006-07 (CEA -2008)
Table-11: 10
th
Plan Achievement (Installed total capacity) MW 11TH Plan Capacity Addition Target (Program) (1.4. 07 to 31.3. 2012) MW
Source
Sector Central
State Private Total Central State Private Total
Thermal 30927.3 46066 9021.5 86014.8 24840 23301 11552 59693 (75.8%)
Hydro 7418 26005.7 1230 34653.7 8654 3482 3491 15627 (19.9%)
Nuclear 3900.0 0.0 0.0 3900.0 3380 -- -- 3380 (4.3%)
RES 0.0 975.7 6784.8 7760.5 36874
(46.9%) 26783
(34%) 15043
(19.1%) 78700 (100%)
Total 42245.3 73047.4 17036.3 132329
11TH Plan year wise Capacity Addition Program Schedule & Achievements
Programme – 2007-08 (In MW) Achievement – 2007- 08 (1.4. 2007 to 31.3. 2008)
Thermal 3490 4767.20 750 9007.2 1990 3880 750 6620
Hydro
690
1682
0
2372
1030
1393
0
2423
Nuclear 660 0 0 660 220 0 0 220
Total
4840
6449.2
750
12039.2
3240
5273
750
9263 (77% of program)
Programme – 2008-09 Achievement – 2008- 09 (1.4. 2008 to 31.3. 2009)
Thermal – P
-Re 291017
50 2957.2012
62.2 3437
2761 9304.20577
3.2 750 852.2 882.5 2484.7
Hydro – P
- Re 0
0 10971097 0
0 1097 1097 0 969 0 969
Nuclear– P
Re 660
660 0
0 0
0 660
660 0 0 0
Total – P
Re 357024
10 4054.2
2359.2 3437
2761 11061.2
7530.2 750 1821.2 882.5 3453.7 (31.22% of
initial & 46% of revised
prog.)
Installed Capacity as on 30.6.09 (MW) Estimated Target Capacity addition FY09- 10 :14507 MW
Achievement : 2009- 10 (1.4. 2009 to 30.6. 2009)
Thermal 36359.
3 46922.3 12763.0 96044.24
63.9%
2692 -3875.9 2109 Target:13002
2319 - 17.8% of target
(925.1)
Hydro 8592 27094.7 1230 36916.76
24.6%
144 -1273 0 Target : 845
39.0 - 4.6% of target (-
1129)
Nuclear 4120 0 0 4120
2.7% 0 0 0 Target : 660
0 – 0% of target
RES 0 2247.7 10994.7 13242.41
8.8%
2835.7
- 5148.9
6318.9
2358 – 16.3% of
target(4005.7)
Total 49071 76264.7 24987.7 150323.41
Status of 11
th
Plan Capacity Addition (31.3.09 ) Plan of 12
th
Plan Capacity Addition MW
Commissioned 3990 7094 1633 12717 Thermal Hydro Nuclear Total
Under
construction 2954
0 18269 19484 67293 40000 30000 11000 –
13000 82000
Total 3353
0 25363 21117 80010
Negative values indicate for decommissioned projects which are commercially
unviable and previously considered but reduced as per new definition of
commissioning.
Values in bracket are calculated from table database
P- Program of Planning Commission, Re-Revised by CEA
Coal
48%
Oil
3%
Natural Gas
7%
Hydro/
Renewables
20%
Nuclear
22%
2030 Source Of Energy For Electric Power Gen eration
Fig.1 – Source of Electricity in 2030 (National Energy Policy – 2006) Fig.2- Sectorwise Power Generation
Fig.3 Domestic Raw Coal Production (in Million Tons) Fig.4 Raw coal supply to Power Stations (Million tons)
Fig. 5 - Installed Power Generation Capacity by Resource Fig.6- Installed Capacity by mode of generation
Fig.7 Yearly Generation Capacity Addition(MW) Fig.8 Per Capita power consumption in 2003-IEA
96,044
36,917
4,120 11127
MW
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable Energy
Sources(RES)
76,264.7
49,071.0
24987
MW
State
Central
Private
Fig.9 Growth of per capita power consumption
Fig.10 Improvement in Thermal PLF(%)
Fig.11 Five Yr Plan Capacity Addition Slippage
Fig.12 Peak
D
emand V/S Availability(MW Net
Fig.13 Sectoral PLF Status (%)
Fig.14 Energy Demand Vs Availability (GWh)
Fig.16 Energy Supply requirements
Fig. 17 Growth of Power Generating Capacity in different category (*Thermal = ΣCoal, diesel, Gas)
Fig. 18 Electricity Consumption in 2001(IEA)
Fig. 19 Change in Primary Commercial Energy Prices Report
#:DOE/EIA-0383(2009)
Fig. 20 Annual Generation Target & Achievements (CEA)
Fig. 21 All India T&D Losses an d future planned expectations .(CEA)
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